URL: http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi
Forum: DCForumID44
Thread Number: 2667
[ Go back to previous page ]
Original Message
"AI-8 Dial Idol and Other Prediction Sites"
Posted by Snidget on 02-18-09 at 06:25 AM
We can post Dial Idol and if you find any other predictions site information here.

Dial Idol is a automated dialing program that keeps track of how many busy signals they get. It isn't perfect as the sample is based on who people want to vote for and the American Idol people seem to have upped the capacity so you don't get as many busies as we did the first few years, but it is interesting to look at.

Any other prediction site info is welcome. I'll compile the Dial Idol stuff each week.

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"First 12 Semifinalists."
Posted by Snidget on 02-18-09 at 06:27 AM
Dial Idol Score

3.372 Alexis Grace
0.595 Ann Marie Boskovich
0.521 Tatiana Nicole Del Toro
0.323 Casey Carlson
0.200 Jackie Tohn
0.173 Stevie Wright


23.740 Danny Gokey
4.355 Michael Sarver
1.974 Anoop Desai
1.809 Ricky Braddy
1.496 Brent Keith
0.401 Stephen Fowler

What Rank they should get

1—4 Alexis Grace
1--6 Ann Marie Boskovich
1--6 Tatiana Nicole Del Toro
1--6 Casey Carlson
1--6 Jackie Tohn
1--6 Stevie Wright


1 Danny Gokey
2—5 Michael Sarver
2—6 Anoop Desai
2—6 Ricky Braddy
2—6 Brent Keith
3—6 Stephen Fowler


Geo Predictions Number of States Won

25 Alexis Grace
5 Ann Marie Boskovich
3 Tatiana Nicole Del Toro
1 Casey Carlson
1 Jackie Tohn
1 Stevie Wright
0 Tie
14 No Vote
50 Total

36 Danny Gokey
5 Michael Sarver
0 Anoop Desai
1 Ricky Braddy
0 Brent Keith
0 Stephen Fowler
0 Tie
8 No Vote
50 Total


"Second Group of 12"
Posted by Snidget on 02-26-09 at 06:52 AM
DialIdol Score

6.74 Allison Iraheta
3.26 Jesse Langseth
2.43 Megan Joy Corkrey
1.76 Jasmine Murray
1.3 Mishavonna Henson
0.34 Jeanine Vailes


9.72 Adam Lambert
3.52 Matt Giraud
2.92 Matt Britzke
2.91 Kris Allen
1.92 Nick Mitchell
0.57 Kai Kalama

Rank
1 Allison Iraheta
2—6 Jesse Langseth
2—6 Megan Joy Corkrey
2—6 Jasmine Murray
2—6 Mishavonna Henson
2—6 Jeanine Vailes


1 Adam Lambert
2—6 Matt Giraud
2—6 Matt Britzke
2—6 Kris Allen
2—6 Nick Mitchell
2—6 Kai Kalama

States won

24 Allison Iraheta
5 Jesse Langseth
2 Mishavonna Henson
2 Jasmine Murray
1 Megan Joy Corkrey
0 Jeanine Vailes
0 Tie
16 No Vote
50 Total

26 Adam Lambert
4 Kris Allen
3 Matt Britzke
2 Matt Giraud
1 Nick Mitchell
1 Kai Kalama
0 Tie
8 No Vote
45 Total


"RE: Second Group of 12"
Posted by Estee on 02-26-09 at 08:50 AM
Feh. I always knew this country had no sense of humor, and now we've got numerical proof.

No need for me to watch the results show tonight.

"RE: Second Group of 12"
Posted by Snidget on 02-26-09 at 09:02 AM
Well the other than Adam is too close to call so there is hope.

At these stages DialIdol isn't that accurate. With 12 numbers there just usually aren't enough busies and those numbers have a pretty wide margin of error.

If you look at the raw numbers for the votes cast using Dial Idol he has the highest amount of votes even if the % of busies was lower.

"RE: Second Group of 12"
Posted by emydi on 02-26-09 at 09:23 AM
feh...I still am hoping the raw nos are a good sign...however, Anoop had a lot more thatn Michael Sarver..i guess blue collars don't use dial idol

Smidge you're a idol snob

"RE: Second Group of 12"
Posted by emydi on 02-26-09 at 10:57 AM
LAST EDITED ON 02-26-09 AT 11:01 AM (EST)

here, I'll break it down for you

2 Fodder are out

Allison goes thru by herself

2 more Fodder are out

Kris and Matt G the pianist have a showdown and Matt surprisingly gets thru

3 more Fodder are out

Normund and Adam are the last two and Adam gets thru

just like last week, the show should be 5 minutes

But I'm still hoping Normund got the votes for 3rd spot


"RE: Second Group of 12"
Posted by Belle Book on 02-26-09 at 04:46 PM
Actually, the results of the Dial Idol predictions concerning the states won make me have a slightly different prediction:

Kris and Jesse instead of Kris & Matt G. have a showdown and Jesse makes it through. Or maybe it's Jesse and Matt G. instead of Jesse & Kris, but I think it's the former.

Belle Book

"RE: AI-8 Dial Idol and Other Prediction Sites"
Posted by kingfish on 02-26-09 at 10:34 AM
I guess I should learn their names. But, well, once you name them, they become pets.

The two red head girls and the last guy, with Normand the hopping fish as wild card would be my votes. I think they were topping your lists? I didn't listen to all of them, but those impressed me.

I would also hope that the judges will start using a thesaurus. Everybody chooses the wrong song and everyone has problems staying in tune (is pitchy). I’d think that they would have enough imagination (they are artists, right? Well, OK, not Paula, but the others?) to vary the ways they say that.

"RE: AI-8 Dial Idol and Other Prediction Sites"
Posted by goheels on 02-26-09 at 10:41 AM
LAST EDITED ON 02-26-09 AT 10:41 AM (EST)

I am concerned if we have another 2 guy winners night tonight---how are they going to choose girls for the wildcard spots? I hope they do not feel like they have to even it out this year.

"Group 3 dial idol"
Posted by Snidget on 03-04-09 at 06:26 AM
Dial Idol Score (margin of errror is just over +/-3 or so

9.820 Lil Rounds
3.017 Felicia Barton
2.794 Kendall Beard
2.710 Taylor Vaifanua
2.693 Kristen McNamara
1.205 Arianna Afsar


9.219 Scott MacIntyre
4.143 Ju'Not Joyner
3.843 Nathaniel Marshall
3.693 Jorge Nuñez
2.707 Von Smith
1.754 Alex Wagner-Trugman

Rankings
1 Lil Rounds
2—6 Felicia Barton
2—6 Kendall Beard
2—6 Taylor Vaifanua
2—6 Kristen McNamara
2—6 Arianna Afsar

1 Scott MacIntyre
2—6 Ju'Not Joyner
2—6 Nathaniel Marshall
2—6 Jorge Nuñez
2—6 Von Smith
2—6 Alex Wagner-Trugman

By State, This gives you an idea of how widespread the support is. Some states have a much bigger vote total than others.

25 Lil Rounds
5 Felicia Barton
4 Kendall Beard
2 Taylor Vaifanua
2 Kristen McNamara
0 Arianna Afsar
0 Tie
12 No Vote
50 Total

27 Scott MacIntyre
2 Ju'Not Joyner
2 Nathaniel Marshall
4 Jorge Nuñez
2 Von Smith
1 Alex Wagner-Trugman
1 Tie
11 No Vote
50 Total


Normund Invasion by Agman

"RE: Group 3 dial idol"
Posted by vince3 on 03-04-09 at 09:02 AM
Heh. Not only does VFTW go 0 for 3, but even their original favorite for the week 3 spot didn't do so well, either........ and he sang decent!
"RE: Group 3 dial idol"
Posted by Snidget on 03-04-09 at 09:10 AM
As soon as they announced the format change VFTW was pretty clear they weren't likely to get a pick into the top 12 unless for some reason they were a wildcard pick.

It is much harder to get someone into the top three than to keep them out of the bottom couple of slots.

However I will say the first couple of seasons done this way still all lead to plenty of Worster goodness in the top 12. Even before the Worsters were organized there were bad singers in the top 12 that got through way too many weeks in a row. Between people's nerves, egos, and last minute song changes or bad song choices even when it was the contestant's idea there will be someone worthy of the VFTW vote every week.

The producers need someone bad as I think it helps the ratings more than 36, or 12 or even 8-10 incredibly talented singers. People love to see who is the train-wreck this week. If they wanted to cast people who were up to the challenge I believe they could find lots of them. They prefer to find at most 4-5 of them and then fill up the rest of the top 12 with fodder so the chosen ones get through.

But I may be cynical.


Normund Invasion by Agman

"RE: Group 3 dial idol"
Posted by vince3 on 03-04-09 at 09:14 AM
I still doubt that Tatiana, Nick, Alex and Von will be let in as wildcards, though, unless the producers once again are begging VFTW to pick one of them to be their pick just so they can torture them again.............
"RE: Group 3 dial idol"
Posted by Snidget on 03-04-09 at 09:21 AM
True but a lot of the pimped bad singers that were just a tad boring never seem to live up to the "we know you can sing even if you've never demonstrated it on stage in front of America so please bring that voice no one has ever heard to the show next week" judge selections.

There is always one wild card pick from what I remember of Season Two or Three where you just know someone was not taking the full dose of their prescribed medications when that decision was made.

I wouldn't be surprised if the put someone that America Loves to Hate in the top 12. I'm guessing if anyone it would be Von, he's the most palatable of the entertainingly bad. However I wouldn't be surprised with Tatiana as she did sing well and since they are doing the Big Brother show them all in the house together thing, who better to bring the drama than her?

"RE: Group 3 dial idol"
Posted by emydi on 03-04-09 at 09:27 AM
Ha...my hard drive on my laptop at home went kablooey (only 6 mos) and I still knew it was my dork Alex as VFTW...I voted for him even though I knew he would get no where near the top 12. I hope Alex reads our site because I professed my love for the dork before last nite's greatness!!

The two that might make it are Tatiana (for the drama in the mansion...Adam said in an interview that everyone hates her) and Von who did sing suprisingly well last nite.

Ju Not is a surprise

"Top 13 Raw numbers"
Posted by Snidget on 03-06-09 at 02:19 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-06-09 AT 02:20 PM (EST)

So here is the % Busy signals from Dial Idol for all the top 13, now they may not be completely comparable as they weren't all up against each other, but I thought it would be interesting to see who seems to have stronger vs weaker support.
Wild Cards are in blue for this


Danny Gokey 21.42%
Scott MacIntyre 8.61%
Adam Lambert 7.93%
Lil Rounds 7.44%
Allison Iraheta 5.45%
Michael Sarver 4.01%
Jasmine Murray 3.37%
Alexis Grace 2.42%
Matt Giraud 2.33%
Kris Allen 2.33%
Jorge Nuñez 2.14%
Anoop Desai 1.62%
Megan Joy Corkery 1.14%

Now here is the Number of votes cast using Dial Idol (does not count anyone that didn't get a busy signal) which may give us a feel for who has the support of those geeky enough to use dial idol to vote.

Danny Gokey 27.20K
Scott MacIntyre 24.69K
Adam Lambert 23.74K
Alexis Grace 22.79K
Allison Iraheta 20.84K
Anoop Desai 20.49K
Megan Joy Corkery 18.97K
Jorge Nuñez 18.38K
Kris Allen 17.18K
Lil Rounds 15.44K
Michael Sarver 11.62K
Matt Giraud 9.63K
Jasmine Murray 3.09K

So to combine the data I rank ordered them by both lists (1-13) then added the two rankings together, just for fun. yes I know I have an odd sense of fun TYVM

2 Danny
4 Scott
6 Adam
10 Allison
12 Alexis
14 Lil
17 Michael
18 Anoop
19 Jorge
19 Kris
20 Jasmine
20 Megan
21 Matt


"RE: Top 13 Raw numbers"
Posted by emydi on 03-06-09 at 04:05 PM
thanks, smidge, so will this be your PTTE WILL GO LIST?

We must all vote for Adam so Dead Wife doesn't win, heck I'll take blind boy even

"RE: Top 13 Raw numbers"
Posted by Snidget on 03-06-09 at 04:19 PM
I thought I was pre-disqualified?
"RE: Top 13 Raw numbers"
Posted by emydi on 03-06-09 at 04:32 PM
um, you're just fodder...but that means you have to be there so others can be pimped and win
"Top 13 DI"
Posted by Snidget on 03-11-09 at 05:13 AM
Dial Idol Score

25.84 Danny Gokey
22.57 Adam Lambert
18.03 Lil Rounds
15.14 Alexis Grace
15.04 Anoop Desai
13.50 Scott MacIntyre
12.64 Matt Giraud
12.63 Michael Sarver
12.54 Megan Joy
12.49 Kris Allen
12.36 Jasmine Murray
11.49 Allison Iraheta
10.44 Jorge Nuñez

Dial Idol Rank

1 Danny Gokey
2 Adam Lambert
3 Lil Rounds
4—10 Alexis Grace
4—11 Anoop Desai
4--12 Scott MacIntyre
4—13 Matt Giraud
4—13 Michael Sarver
4—13 Megan Joy
4—13 Kris Allen
4—13 Jasmine Murray
4—13 Allison Iraheta
4—13 Jorge Nuñez

By State # States Won

15 Danny Gokey 15
6 Adam Lambert 6
3 Allison Iraheta 3
3 Anoop Desai 3
3 Lil Rounds 3
2 Alexis Grace 2
2 Megan Joy 2
2 Kris Allen 2
1 Jorge Nuñez 1
1 Jasmine Murray 1
1 Matt Giraud 1
0 Scott MacIntyre 0
0 Michael Sarver 0
2 Tie 2
9 No Vote 9
50 Total 50

"RE: Top 13 DI"
Posted by Estee on 03-11-09 at 06:50 AM
I think we're going to have one major problem with Jorge all season: his biggest & most dedicated voting block isn't on the radar. These numbers only reflect the fifty states -- and that means they exclude all votes from Puerto Rico. That's how he slid under the statistics to reach this stage, and that may be what keeps him for a long time.
"RE: Top 13 DI"
Posted by emydi on 03-11-09 at 08:57 AM
wow allison is a big surprise

"AOL and Vote Fair"
Posted by Snidget on 03-11-09 at 05:15 AM
Now I think both of these include voting for several days before the performance show. So gives you an idea of who was also a pre show favorite.

AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Danny Gokey
3 Anoop Desai
4 Kris Allen
5 Allison Iraheta
6 Megan Joy
7 Alexis Grace
8 Jorge Nuñez
9 Scott MacIntyre
10 Matt Giraud
11 Lil Rounds
12 Jasmine Murray
13 Michael Sarver

Vote Fair
1 Allison Iraheta
2 Alexis Grace
3 Danny Gokey
3 Adam Lambert
4 Scott MacIntyre
5 Megan Joy
6 Jasmine Murray
7 Lil Rounds
8 Matt Giraud
9 Kris Allen
10 Anoop Desai
11 Michael Sarver
12 Jorge Nuñez

"Top 11 Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 03-18-09 at 04:48 AM
Dial Idol Score

22.411 Danny Gokey
17.309 Anoop Desai
14.800 Lil Rounds
11.662 Matt Giraud
11.203 Kris Allen
10.292 Adam Lambert
9.846 Michael Sarver
9.788 Scott MacIntyre
9.062 Megan Joy
8.003 Allison Iraheta
6.774 Alexis Grace

Dial Idol Rank

1 Danny Gokey
2 Anoop Desai
3 Lil Rounds
4—8 Matt Giraud
4—9 Kris Allen
4--10 Adam Lambert
4--10 Michael Sarver
4--10 Scott MacIntyre
5—11 Megan Joy
6—11 Allison Iraheta
9--11 Alexis Grace

"Top 11 AOL and Votefair"
Posted by Snidget on 03-18-09 at 04:51 AM
I think they include votes from before the performances so may blend some, may be worth checking them later to day to see if they shift

AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Danny Gokey
3 Kris Allen
4 Allison Iraheta
5 Megan Joy
6 Anoop Desai
7 Alexis Grace
8 Matt Giraud
9 Lil Rounds
10 Scott MacIntyre
11 Michael Sarver



Vote Fair
1 Adam Lambert
2 Danny Gokey
3 Allison Iraheta
4 Kris Allen
5 Alexis Grace
6 Matt Giraud
7 Lil Rounds
8 Megan Joy
9 Anoop Desai
10 Michael Sarver
11 Scott MacIntyre

"Top 10 Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 03-26-09 at 05:07 AM
Dial Idol Score

22.360 Adam Lambert
19.240 Allison Iraheta
18.140 Danny Gokey
15.710 Lil Rounds
12.860 Matt Giraud
12.000 Anoop Desai
11.280 Kris Allen
7.460 Scott MacIntyre
6.850 Megan Joy
5.700 Michael Sarver

Dial Idol Ranking

1—3 Adam Lambert
1—4 Allison Iraheta
1—4 Danny Gokey
2—7 Lil Rounds
4—7 Matt Giraud
4—8 Anoop Desai
4—9 Kris Allen
6—10 Scott MacIntyre
7—10 Megan Joy
8—10 Michael Sarver

States Won

17 Adam Lambert
9 Danny Gokey
7 Allison Iraheta
4 Kris Allen
3 Lil Rounds
2 Anoop Desai
0 Matt Giraud
0 Scott MacIntyre
0 Megan Joy
0 Michael Sarver
0 Tie
8 No Vote
50 Total

"RE: Top 10 Dial Idol"
Posted by true on 03-26-09 at 07:07 AM
Thanks for posting these, I appreciate not having to hunt for the information elsewhere.

Interesting results from dial idol. The huge rise for Allison further proves how much the judges comments influence the voting.

"RE: Top 10 Dial Idol"
Posted by zazzy on 03-26-09 at 12:10 PM
Yes, judges' pimpage and singing order...the pimp spot works again!
"RE: Top 10 Dial Idol"
Posted by true on 03-26-09 at 01:58 PM
Oh yeah, the pimp spot works wonders, and going first at this stage and earlier can be the kiss of death.
"RE: Top 10 Dial Idol"
Posted by DoodleBug on 03-26-09 at 01:24 PM
Lil surprises me every week on Dial Idol. I can't find many folks on the boards that like her, but there she is in the top 4. All her fans must use dial idol or something.
"RE: Top 10 Dial Idol"
Posted by Belle Book on 03-26-09 at 03:45 PM
Maybe they just don't show themselves on message boards.


"AOL and Votefair Poll"
Posted by Snidget on 03-26-09 at 05:09 AM
Just a reminder, these are vote at any time, and we don't know what % might be pre-performance

AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Danny Gokey
3 Allison Iraheta
4 Kris Allen
5 Matt Giraud
6 Anoop Desai
7 Scott MacIntyre
8 Megan Joy
9 Lil Rounds
10 Michael Sarver



Vote Fair
1 Adam Lambert
2 Danny Gokey
3 Allison Iraheta
4 Kris Allen
6 Anoop Desai
6 Matt Giraud
7 Lil Rounds
8 Megan Joy
9 Scott MacIntyre
10 Michael Sarver

"Top 9 Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 04-01-09 at 05:23 AM
Dial Idol Score

20.85 Danny Gokey
19.55 Kris Allen
17.27 Adam Lambert
15.45 Lil Rounds
14.95 Scott MacIntyre
13.72 Matt Giraud
12.52 Anoop Desai
10.66 Allison Iraheta
8.94 Megan Joy

Dial Idol Rankings

Danny Gokey 1—5
Kris Allen 1—6
Adam Lambert 1-7
Lil Rounds 1—8
Scott MacIntyre 1—9
Matt Giraud 2—9
Anoop Desai 3—9
Allison Iraheta 4—9
Megan Joy 5—9

State break down (included losses this week as over half the states had something other than a tie)

Win
14 Kris Allen
8 Adam Lambert
6 Allison Iraheta
6 Danny Gokey
2 Anoop Desai
2 Scott MacIntyre
2 Matt Giraud
1 Megan Joy
1 Lil Rounds
0 Tie
8 No Vote
50 Total




Lose
0 Kris Allen
0 Danny Gokey
1 Adam Lambert
1 Matt Giraud
2 Allison Iraheta
2 Scott MacIntyre
3 Megan Joy
6 Anoop Desai
6 Lil Rounds
21 Tie
8 No Vote
50 Total

"Top 9 Other Polls"
Posted by Snidget on 04-01-09 at 05:23 AM
AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Danny Gokey
3 Allison Iraheta
4 Matt Giraud
5 Kris Allen
6 Anoop Desai
7 Megan Joy
8 Scott MacIntyre
9 Lil Rounds


Vote Fair
1 Adam Lambert
2 Allison Iraheta
3 Danny Gokey
4 Kris Allen
5 Matt Giraud
6 Anoop Desai
7 Lil Rounds
8 Megan Joy
9 Scott MacIntyre

"Top 8 Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 04-08-09 at 05:15 AM
Well looks like a close race on dial idol. The spread is small enough almost everyone could be from #2 to going home with the margin of error. So may be a more interesting night than I thought it was.

Dial Idol Score

19.66 Adam Lambert
12.07 Danny Gokey
10.8 Allison Iraheta
9.51 Lil Rounds
9.19 Matt Giraud
8.48 Scott MacIntyre
7.65 Anoop Desai
6.65 Kris Allen

Dial Idol Rank

Adam Lambert 1—2
Danny Gokey 1—8
Allison Iraheta 2—8
Lil Rounds 2—8
Matt Giraud 2—8
Scott MacIntyre 2—8
Anoop Desai 2—8
Kris Allen 2—8


States Won

15 Adam Lambert
8 Danny Gokey
5 Allison Iraheta
2 Lil Rounds
4 Matt Giraud
3 Scott MacIntyre
3 Anoop Desai
4 Kris Allen
0 Tie
6 No Vote
50 Total

States Lost (most were ties)

3 Anoop Desai
3 Scott MacIntyre
3 Lil Rounds
2 Kris Allen
1 Danny Gokey
1 Matt Giraud
0 Adam Lambert
0 Allison Iraheta
31 Tie
6 No Vote
50 Total

I will have to suspend New Jersey jokes for the week, Danny's first state he lost, and I gotta give them props for that


"RE: Top 8 Dial Idol"
Posted by zazzy on 04-08-09 at 07:11 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-08-09 AT 07:12 AM (EST)

How did Anoop do in Michigan? ;)

And how does the "lose a state" work? I understand that winning a state means you get the most votes in that state, but lose? Wouldn't all the rest lost that state? TIA.

ETA: here's where texts will make the difference. Hope the DA fans are voting for Kris.

"RE: Top 8 Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 04-08-09 at 08:02 AM
It is the who is the bottom vote getter in that state.

Anoop did surprisingly well in Michigan. He was in third place. I was sure that "Go Heels" would have cost him a lot more than that. He was last in some other states.

"Top 8 other polls"
Posted by Snidget on 04-08-09 at 05:16 AM
AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Allison Iraheta
3 Danny Gokey
4 Kris Allen
5 Matt Giraud
6 Anoop Desai
7 Scott MacIntyre
8 Lil Rounds


Vote Fair
1 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen
3 Allison Iraheta
4 Danny Gokey
5 Matt Giraud
6 Lil Rounds
7 Anoop Desai
8 Scott MacIntyre

"RE: Top 8 other polls"
Posted by dragonflies on 04-08-09 at 08:02 AM
Wow, all the different polls are showing significantly different result. Hmmm. Maybe we will see a "surprise" boot and a save?

"Top 7 Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 04-15-09 at 05:32 AM
Behold the power of the pimp spot?

DI Score

12.30 Danny Gokey
11.99 Lil Rounds
10.79 Adam Lambert
9.83 Anoop Desai
7.67 Allison Iraheta
6.02 Matt Giraud
5.63 Kris Allen

DI Ranking

Danny Gokey 1—6
Lil Rounds 1—7
Adam Lambert 1—7
Anoop Desai 1—7
Allison Iraheta 1—7
Matt Giraud 1—7
Kris Allen 1—7

With the margin of error it was a pretty close week, IMO because it was a pretty mediocre week all the way around.

Looking at the By State Data

Win a State
11 Adam Lambert
7 Danny Gokey
6 Allison Iraheta
5 Anoop Desai
4 Lil Rounds
3 Kris Allen
3 Matt Giraud
1 Tie
10 No Vote
50 Total

Lose a State
7 Matt Giraud
7 Lil Rounds
2 Anoop Desai
1 Allison Iraheta
1 Kris Allen
0 Adam Lambert
0 Danny Gokey
22 Tie
10 No Vote
50 Total

So while Lil did good in the overall numbers there are some parts of the country where it didn't do her a lot of good.


"RE: Top 7 Dial Idol"
Posted by zazzy on 04-15-09 at 10:02 AM
Thanks for posting, Snidget. I can't figure out if Dial Idol is losing its predictive powers or not. Do they have less participation than in the past?

"RE: Top 7 Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 04-15-09 at 10:53 AM
I dunno, it seems about the same as ever. This week looks a lot like the same week from season 6.

Some weeks the votes are more even than others and the range people could be ranked is doing well overall. You can't really say the order is the exact order since the margin of error is too large to really separate out the middle from the lowest. It does tend to separate out the absolutely safe from the rest of the pack. It seems to be doing that as well as ever.

There are a lot of reasons why Dial Idol has never been a perfect predictor, but I think it does give you an idea of how things are trending.

Remember it is not in anyway a scientific sampling of the vote. They do a pretty good job with a really lousy data set but to expect perfection is never going to happen.

"Top 7 Other Polls"
Posted by Snidget on 04-15-09 at 05:34 AM
Not much movement on these polls, but they also allow voting prior to the performance show so may be more of a long term trend than a what will happen this show.

AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Allison Iraheta
3 Danny Gokey
4 Kris Allen
5 Matt Giraud
6 Anoop Desai
8 Lil Rounds


Vote Fair
1 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen
3 Allison Iraheta
4 Danny Gokey
5 Matt Giraud
6 Anoop Desai
7 Lil Rounds


"Top 7, again."
Posted by Snidget on 04-22-09 at 05:03 AM
Dial Idol Score

25.80 Lil Rounds
25.73 Adam Lambert
22.94 Danny Gokey
20.54 Anoop Desai
20.32 Matt Giraud
20.14 Kris Allen
17.95 Allison Iraheta

Dial Idol Spread on the Prediction

Lil Rounds 1—6
Adam Lambert 1—6
Danny Gokey 1—6
Anoop Desai 1—7
Matt Giraud 1—7
Kris Allen 1—7
Allison Iraheta 1—7

Now these really mirror the busy percentages but who dial idol votes for is not the same people that get all the busies, so that may be part of having a wide spread. Who got the most dial idol votes

1 Allison Iraheta
2 Kris Allen
3 Adam Lambert
4 Matt Giraud
5 Anoop Desai
6 Danny Gokey
7 Lil Rounds

You often see someone that is low on the score get a lot more votes as the night goes on as a lot of people seem to be switching when they see someone not doing well. This does mean they often get a lot of votes being cast at the times when there are fewer busy signals.

Geographic Data where you see a lot of who gets a lot of dial idol voters seems to make a difference in the totals.

Win
12 Adam Lambert
7 Kris Allen
6 Allison Iraheta
5 Danny Gokey
5 Matt Giraud
4 Anoop Desai
3 Lil Rounds
0 Tie
8 No Vote
50 Total

Lose
9 Lil Rounds
3 Adam Lambert
3 Matt Giraud
2 Anoop Desai
2 Kris Allen
1 Danny Gokey
1 Allison Iraheta
21 Tie
8 No Vote
50 Total


Normund Invasion by Agman

"RE: Top 7, again."
Posted by zazzy on 04-22-09 at 09:34 AM
Dial Idol's webmaster agrees that something is wonky with Lil's data from last night:

http://www.dialidol.com/asp/news/news.asp

"Make no mistake about it - the predictions are simply too close to call this week. No one is predicted to be flat-out safe for the first time this season therefore DialIdol can't be wrong because it really isn't making any prediction.

I ran through a simulation of last nights vote - filtering out the dialers I had found last night who seemed to be getting a disproportionately high number of busy signals for Lil (even during the 9pm hour where filtering wasn't in place yet) and the resulting prediction still had Lil solidly in the second row on the chart though teetering on the brink of the third row where Danny was. Everything else was unchanged order wise. Also the predictions were still too close too call - much closer in fact. Here is what it looked like when I filtered these dialers out."

See link above for the chart and many iterations of data.

--And--

"It looks like there is some weird stuff going on with Lil Rounds prediction this week. I did some analysis during the first hour of voting and found three of 24 people dialing for her with busy percents way out of whack. Two of those three were calling from the same area code. I filtered those dialers out at about 10pm but the "damage" was done. In a way I believe this has more to do with a disproportionate number of callers for her compared to the rest of the contestants. She only got 40% of the calls that the next highest total. This makes her data very unreliable and probably over-inflated. If there are going to be any surprises they will probably come from her. I believe she is ranked higher on the chart than she the data suggests she should be."

"Top 7 w2 other polls"
Posted by Snidget on 04-22-09 at 05:04 AM
AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Allison Iraheta
3 Danny Gokey
4 Kris Allen
5 Matt Giraud
6 Anoop Desai
7 Lil Rounds


Vote Fair
1 Adam Lambert
2 Allison Iraheta
3 Kris Allen
4 Danny Gokey
5 Matt Giraud
6 Anoop Desai
7 Lil Rounds

"RE: Top 7 w2 other polls"
Posted by zazzy on 04-22-09 at 06:59 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-22-09 AT 07:06 AM (EST)

On MJsbigblog they have been discussing voteamerica1:

http://www.votenumber1.com/

Adam - 36.75%
Kris - 19.37%
Allison - 13.95%
Anoop - 11.99%
Danny - 8.06%
Matt - 7.88%
Lil - 1.99%

The discussion is that it has been more predictive this season than dialidol. That dialidol is heavily dependent on the % busy signals and that seems to be out of whack this season.

ETA: to update the numbers

"Top Five Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 04-29-09 at 05:29 AM
Opening up more phone lines tends to make it harder for DI to see the difference between the Idols as it tends to suppress the number of busy signals people get.

Dial Idol Score

21.26 Danny Gokey
20.89 Adam Lambert
20.22 Allison Iraheta
18.20 Kris Allen
16.42 Matt Giraud


Dial Idol Rank

All ranked 1--5

Geopredictions.

States Won
16 Allison Iraheta
13 Danny Gokey
7 Kris Allen
5 Matt Giraud
4 Adam Lambert
0 Tie
5 No Vote
50 Total

States Lost

13 Matt Giraud
6 Adam Lambert
5 Kris Allen
4 Danny Gokey
2 Allison Iraheta
15 Tie
5 No Vote
50 Total

Rank of who DI voters were voting for: I added the ranks of each of the two phone lines together.

4 Allison Iraheta
8 Kris Allen
11 Adam Lambert
15 Matt Giraud
17 Danny Gokey


DI seems to have a lot of Allison voters every week so that isn't surprising, but it seems maybe she got a bit of a bump (may have picked up Lil voters?)

Remember the DI score is based on % busy signals and when the busies happen, not based on how many DI voters are voting for someone.

"Top 5 other polls"
Posted by Snidget on 04-29-09 at 05:33 AM
AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen
3 Danny Gokey
4 Allison Iraheta
5 Matt Giraud


Vote Fair
1 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen
3 Allison Iraheta
4 Danny Gokey
5 Matt Giraud

Vote Number One
1 Adam Lambert
2 Danny Gokey
3 Kris Allen
4 Allison Iraheta
5 Matt Giraud


"RE: Top 5 other polls"
Posted by zazzy on 04-29-09 at 06:56 AM
Thanks for grabbing all the data. Matt seems to be the bottom dweller for all the polls. Q is who is the other b2 resident. Toss up between Allison and Kris I suppose but Simon did the reverse psych thing on America to get votes for Allison so it could be Kris this time. Yet Kris has not fared well with Dial Idol and has been safe so far. He must have a good base of voters who text.

I'm tired of their pushing Matt when his live performances don't merit it. Give it up, Simon, your wildcard pick (and really all the picks) just does not have "it". Did Simon pimp Matt just to get Kris into the b2 over Allison this week? That's all the suspense for tonight.

"RE: Top 5 other polls"
Posted by Ahtumbreez on 04-30-09 at 08:00 AM
Man, Dial Idol used to be alot more reliable than it has been this year!


Mangalicious by The Slice
09/25/2008 Bre left for Iraq
04/29/2009 Bre left Iraq
06/09/2009 Bre gets a hug from Mom

"RE: Top 5 other polls"
Posted by zazzy on 04-30-09 at 08:11 AM
Maybe it is not so far off.

21.26 Danny Gokey --from the way they did the results, he looks to be the top vote getter. Dial Idol agrees.

Next, Ryan never actually said Adam was b2, he just said Kris was safe, implying that Adam was b2, I think. So if Adam was the third biggest vote getter, dial idol is not far off because text votes could be the edge--look how close their numbers are:

20.89 Adam Lambert
20.22 Allison Iraheta

So, if Kris was really b2, and Ryan's method of announcing the results was to get some buzz and support for Adam next week, then these results are correct:

18.20 Kris Allen
16.42 Matt Giraud

And clearly Matt was the boot.

"RE: Top 5 other polls"
Posted by emydi on 04-30-09 at 08:14 AM
actually Ryan did say they were the B2 when talking to Jamie Foxx...actually though I don't think Adam was B2 though..I think it was just a way to ensure he's in the top 2 people will start voting for him like crazy now
"RE: Top 5 other polls"
Posted by Glow on 04-30-09 at 08:17 AM
... and then next week they can say they had the highest number of votes ever.
"RE: Top 5 other polls"
Posted by zazzy on 05-06-09 at 11:30 AM
Thanks, Em, I was going to watch it back. Well, there goes the "Adam wasn't really bottom 2" theory.

"Top 4 Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 05-06-09 at 05:14 AM
Dial Idol Score

22.81 Adam Lambert
19.41 Danny Gokey
14.72 Kris Allen
14.04 Allison Iraheta

Dial Idol Ranking

Adam Lambert 1—2
Danny Gokey 1—4
Kris Allen 2—4
Allison Iraheta 2—4

States Won in Geo Predictions

24 Adam Lambert
11 Danny Gokey
7 Allison Iraheta
4 Kris Allen
0 Tie
4 No Vote
50 Total

States Lost in Geo Predictions

15 Kris Allen
10 Allison Iraheta
10 Danny Gokey
1 Adam Lambert
10 Tie
4 No Vote
50 Total


Dial Idol Vote Total (Votes and Busies)

4 Adam Lambert
6 Allison Iraheta
11 Kris Allen
15 Danny Gokey

"RE: Top 4 Dial Idol"
Posted by vince3 on 05-06-09 at 06:20 AM
Let's hope the texters have DI wrong for the 2nd night in a row.....
"Top Four Other Polls"
Posted by Snidget on 05-06-09 at 05:15 AM
AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Danny Gokey
3 Allison Iraheta
4 Kris Allen


Vote Fair
1 Adam Lambert
2 Allison Iraheta
3 Kris Allen
4 Danny Gokey

Vote Number One
1 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen
3 Allison Iraheta
4 Danny Gokey

"Top Three Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 05-13-09 at 05:21 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-13-09 AT 05:39 AM (EST)

DI Score
29.55 Adam Lambert
27.99 Kris Allen
27.10 Danny Gokey

DI Rankings
Adam Lambert 1—3
Kris Allen 1—3
Danny Gokey 1—3


By State

States Won
24 Adam Lambert
14 Kris Allen
6 Danny Gokey
0 Tie
6 No Vote
50 Total

States Lost

19 Danny Gokey
12 Kris Allen
10 Adam Lambert
3 Tie
6 No Vote
50 Total

Won minus Lost

14 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen
-13 Danny Gokey

DI Raw numbers total number of times dialed (so votes + busy)

6 Adam Lambert
15 Kris Allen
24 Danny Gokey

This was one of the few times I've ever seen all the numbers for a contestant completely cluster together.

ETA: There was some sort of error and dial idol users pretty much had to do a repair or other such fix on the program about 1/2 way through the east coast voting time, do not know how that will effect the totals. I was able to get it back up and running after a little while with a reinstall.

"RE: Top Three Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 05-13-09 at 08:31 AM
Dug into the geopredictions part a bit more now that it is down to a manageable number.

So each state I looked to see who was #1,2,3 and put that in a spread sheet.

For the tied bottom numbers I looked at the full count (tied when two contestants had no busies recorded). If they both had zero votes (1 state) I gave both contestants a 3. If one had votes and the other did not the ones with votes got ranked 2 and the one with no votes got ranked 3.

43 states had votes.

Sum of ranks.

72 Adam
87 Kris
100 Danny

Average rank

1.67 Adam
2.02 Kris
2.33 Danny

Mode (so which rank they got the most)

1 Adam
2 Kris
3 Danny.

Adam
1 24
2 9
3 10

Kris
1 13
2 16
3 14

Danny
1 6
2 17
3 20

"RE: Top Three Dial Idol"
Posted by zazzy on 05-13-09 at 09:18 AM
Very nice! So, without knowing text input....it could be a Kradam final? *Fingers crossed*.
"RE: Top Three Dial Idol"
Posted by DoodleBug on 05-13-09 at 09:28 AM
Thanks, Snidge! We haven't been able to trust Dial Idol for Kris yet so this is very promising to see him ahead of Danny!
"RE: Top Three Dial Idol"
Posted by Syndyloo on 05-13-09 at 04:11 PM
I get confused. the lower the number for the ranks the better?
"RE: Top Three Dial Idol"
Posted by Snidget on 05-13-09 at 04:16 PM
Depends on which numbers you are looking at, but for the geopredictions breakdown where I gave them a 1 for winning the state a 3 for losing the state and a 2 for being neither of those the lower the number the better.
"RE: Top Three Dial Idol"
Posted by Syndyloo on 05-13-09 at 04:17 PM
Thanks!
"Top 3 Other sites"
Posted by Snidget on 05-13-09 at 05:22 AM
AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Danny Gokey
3 Kris Allen


Vote Fair
1 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen
3 Danny Gokey

Vote Number One
1 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen
3 Danny Gokey


"Finally"
Posted by Snidget on 05-20-09 at 05:24 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-20-09 AT 05:25 AM (EST)

So generally on-line polls don't just have a #1 and a #2 ranking, but have it as a huge blow out. Dial Idol in contrast is too close to call.

DI Score
61.14 Kris Allen
60.04 Adam Lambert

Interestingly the DI score did not go down much over the whole evening. It was going up during much of the East Coast Voting Period. Usually even for the finally it drops of by about 1/2 so this may mean very high call volumes.

People may not have believed all the pre show polls that showed it was a huge blow out for Adam and were motivated to vote by that 1 million votes separated them line from Ryan. Interestingly enough AI producers are using the record setting vote totals to say the relatively large drop in viewers based on Nielson are way wrong.

Dial Idol Ranking
Kris Allen 1—2
Adam Lambert 1—2

The margin of error on the score is about 1.5 so they are inside each other's margin of errors. This isn't that common.

States Won (Lost is a mirror image)
28 Adam Lambert
20 Kris Allen
0 Tie
2 No Vote
50 Total

So Adam has a bit of an edge here, and this has sometimes shown a difference from the overall and shown when the overall may not be correct.

Dial Idol Total Votes Rank (Busy + Vote) Add the Ranks together of each phone line
10 Kris Allen
11 Adam Lambert

So who DI people were voting for was close and Adam just edges that out

Dial Idol Percent busy signals, by rank and average

6 Kris Allen
15 Adam Lambert

48.4% Kris Allen
42.9% Adam Lambert

AOL
1 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen

Vote Fair
1 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen

Vote Number One
1 Adam Lambert
2 Kris Allen

"RE: Finally"
Posted by vince3 on 05-20-09 at 05:33 AM
Does the States Won/Lost specify which states? If not, it's very easy that Kris could win fewer states and still pull it out if the states he win are the more popular ones.........
"RE: Finally"
Posted by emydi on 05-20-09 at 08:48 AM
http://www.dialidol.com/asp/predictions/GeoPredictions.asp?season=8&week=2&sort=Winning
"RE: Finally"
Posted by Snidget on 05-20-09 at 09:00 AM
That's the link.

They have a color coded map. I have to add up the numbers.

"RE: Finally"
Posted by vince3 on 05-20-09 at 09:31 AM
So Adam has Cali and NY vs. Kris's Texas for the Big 3 states......

You would think that would favor Adam, but I have a nagging feeling......... besides, whoever doesn't "win" might be better off because they won't be completely under AI's thumb.......

"RE: Finally"
Posted by seahorse on 05-20-09 at 11:38 AM
I think these results make Kris the odds on favorite.

His busy percentage of 48.4% vs 42.9% is a pretty big advantage considering the voting lasted 4 hours in each time zone. Even for dialidol this had to be a huge sample.

For dialidol score the advantage to Kris was 1.1 with a margin of error of about 1.6 so the actual advantage could have been about 0.5 advantage to Adam to a 2.7 advantage to Kris. This shows anyone can win because Kris' advantage is within the margin of error but the probability is much more likely that Kris will win.

"RE: Finally"
Posted by seahorse on 05-20-09 at 11:13 PM
Since dialidol started in season 4, they have been right on the winner each time. This year and in season 4 they had Kris and Carrie Underwood in the lead but they were not ahead by enough votes to be greater than the margin of error so dialidol said it could go either way.

When there are only two contestants left and each has 3 phone lines for 4 hours in each time zone, it is a good bet that dialidol will be pretty accurate.

"RE: Finally"
Posted by emydi on 05-21-09 at 08:37 AM
nice to see here again sh! I wish that they had told us the breakdown of votes...my thought is that Kris won it and it wasn't as close as it had been so they didn't say anything. Although last year they said Cook won by like 16 million votes...although that was for drama I think bc most though archie had won by that many