OK, as the bluemen can confirm, I've been offline (for one reason or another) for most of the past week, however, in spending some time reading a number of today's threads, I haven't seen any convincing arguments to make me change my initial pick from last week -- ROB goes in Episode 7.

Kraut did an excellent job (as always) of summarying up the details in THIS POST, and apparently AK and I have been independently thinking similiar thoughts -- since the one advantage that I'd been thinking John has over Rob (and it's something John doesn't even realize) is the extremely negative picture of Rob that Gina painted for Kathy/Paschel/Neleh. I just can't see Paschal, etc. deciding to align with Rob after having heard Gina's comments about Rob the last 9 days.

As far as the immunity winner, shakes brought up a very good point that the first challenge is always an endurance challenge and that the people who feel they NEED to win that first immunity generally are always at least among the top finishers -- if not the winner. In this edition of the game, I think that Robert, Zoe, Tammy, Vecepia, Paschal, and Neleh will be very secure in their status for the first post-merge Tribal Council and will not feel the need to "endure" to win. That leaves John, Rob, Sean, and Kathy. Since John felt a leader shouldn't have to "show weakness" in admitting he should apologize for a loss, my guess is that he also doesn't think he should "show weakness" by trying too hard to win the IC (to do so would show his insecurity about his leadership position.) Although Sean might be concerned about his position in the tribe, this guy has yet to show any type of endurance, therefore I'm ruling him out as well. Rob knows John is targeting him and the only sure way for him to survive this TC is to win the IC, therefore it is clear he will be trying to endure as long as possible. However, since I'm picking him to get botted, obviously something must happen and he doesn't manage to win. That leaves KATHY -- she is clearly fearful of her game status, and since that's the case, she should go far in this immunity. In my opinion, far enough to WIN IT (and for anyone in doubt of this possibility, remember that TERESA won it in S3 and KEITH in S2 -- and neither was close to the best athlete, or even best athlete of their own sex, within the remaining survivors.) If for some reason Rob wins immunity, assuming the distrust of Rob would still be an issue, then Sean would be the logical choice to go, but we seem to have a good spoiler that Sean lasts a few more shows. Given that, then I'd have to say the above "can't trust Rob" theory would likely be completely wrong and somehow John gets the boot (and therefore John is my alternate selection.)

As far as an Reward Challenge winner goes, there's never been an RC in the Episode 7 merge episode, so I see no reason why they'd start doing one now (and yes, I know Spoiler Island is asking you to select one, but that's for completeness more than anything, if there is no challenge, then as in the other episodes from this season, then no points will be awarded.)

-SB

• Possibility of a Reward Challenge...,IceCat, 05:43 PM, 04-11-02
  • RE: Possibility of a Reward Challenge...,SurvivorBlows, 06:08 PM, 04-11-02
  • RE: Possibility of a Reward Challenge...,Outfrontgirl, 06:21 PM, 04-11-02

Bungler's RC post has the text of the tree-mail that send Kathy and Rob on their 'quest':

Neleh reads the treemail: "You'll be left in stitches if you sew up this reward. Give this map to one Survivor defeat you cannot afford. Choose your one wisely with long sleeves and long pants. Don't send the wrong tribemate this may be your last chance."

Now the reward could simply be the traditional 'wine and cheese party' associated with the merge or it could be something else. Bungler has speculated that the reward may involve the choice of camps for the merge.

I there is a competition for this reward it appears that it will involve Rob and Kathy.

As well, that's how out of the loop I've been... that's the first I've read about this treemail. However, having learned about it, I'm still going to stick with my original prediction -- whatever it is that happens I doubt that it will technically be called the reward challenge (much like the switch wasn't technically a challenge.) I don't believe we've ever seen a TRIBAL challenge winner determined by an INDIVIDUAL challenge competition and I'd be surprised to see it start now.

-SB

LAST EDITED ON 04-11-02 AT 06:23 PM (EST)

Yes, Webby, the Early Show confirms this is a reward challenge where one member from each tribe competes for the whole team.
Although we have various specs on the reward, we know it'a a challenge and we know Rob and Kathy are chosen from their tribes.

So--you could set it up that Rob and Kathy are the two choices for the RC, or make it a tribal challenge decision, but I would like to see the points available.

Edit to say I was writing and didn't see your post first Webby.
But they have 5 minutes to make a pick as to who competes for them, per the preview.