First I'd like to thank Munson and his laws for their contribution to this thread. Some of his laws are repeated here and others are expanded on. There are some original ideas as well.

Looking back at the last three seasons, the following has occured:

Final 2

- comprised of a male and female.
- are part of the same tribe and have never been part of the other tribe.
- one of the two have never had a vote cast aginst them.

Final 3

- comprised of members of the same tribe (2 males, 1 female). A member of the other tribe has never finished better than 4th.

Final 4

- the first two members voted out of the final four always vote for the winner in the final tribal council.

Gender trends

- a male is voted out 10th and a female is voted out 11th.
- the gender of the majority of the jury matches the gender of the winner.
- Final 7 have been made up of 4 males and 3 females.
- Final 6 have been made up of 3 males and 3 females.

Immunity

- in the series that last 39 days (S1, S3 did and S4 will as well) the Final 4 IC is 'fallen comrades' and the Final 3 IC is a 'hands on an object' endurance contest.
- males have won 17 out of 24 IC's so far.
- the person who wins the most individual IC's (immunity ho) does not win.
- the immunity ho makes the Final 3, and also originally comes from the tribe that comprises the Final 3.
- The same person wins the last two IC's, and sometimes more.
- The person winning the last IC always loses to the person they bring with them to the Final 2.

Let's see if these trends (or laws) hold up!

• RE: Looking back at past post-merge trends,Kokoro, 09:23 PM, 04-06-02
• RE: Looking back at past post-merge trends,munson, 10:19 PM, 04-06-02
• RE: Looking back at past post-merge trends,munson, 11:30 AM, 04-07-02
  • speaking of race...,smokedog, 03:55 PM, 04-10-02
• RE: Looking back at past post-merge trends,Survivorerist, 04:05 PM, 04-07-02
  • RE: Looking back at past post-merge trends,PepeLePew13, 02:04 PM, 04-12-02
• RE: Looking back at past post-merge trends,JohnMc, 03:19 PM, 04-10-02
• RE: Looking back at past post-merge trends,bongbear78, 10:11 AM, 04-11-02
  • RE: Looking back at past post-merge trends,Tumbler, 12:10 PM, 04-11-02
  • Voted out 10th, not 10th place,smokedog, 02:11 PM, 04-11-02
• RE: Looking back at past post-merge trends,SurvivinDawg, 12:48 PM, 04-11-02
  • QUESTION!!,brenda1234, 08:24 AM, 04-12-02
    • RE: QUESTION!!,Tumbler, 12:12 PM, 04-12-02
      • Okay...,brenda1234, 04:16 PM, 04-12-02

Final 4 is also usually made up of a Final 3 alliance (who don't necessarily make the F3 - only because of immunity) and a tagalong member.

1. Sue/Rich/Rudy - Kelly was an outsider from Ep 11 on
2. Keith/Colby/Tina
3. Lex/Tom/Ethan

----------------------------------------
Now let us never speak of S3 again.

Gabriel: "Alright, John go straight! Straight!" - Um, Gabe?

Stop Discrimination Now

smokedog,

I can hardly take any credit for the extensive list of trends you've put together. I offered only a couple of observations at the end of S3 (sorry Kokoro!) You've done a great job. Very thorough. We'll know in a couple of weeks if these trends were coincidental or not.

One more to add...one, and only one, of the F4 from previous versions lists a hometown west of the Mississippi river (Kelly, Colby, Lex.) Of course, the majority of the castaways in all versions were from the east so this probably is not unexpected. But since we've got a list going...

How about this one...

An African-American male has always made the merge but has never finished better than seventh - both Nick and Gervase.

Of course, this has nothing to do with race or gender. The African-American males in Survivor have never been in the dominant alliance at the merge and have been young and athletic and therefore immunity threats.

Hmmmm, sound like anybody in the current version? I wouldn't be surprised if this pattern holds for S4.

In the past three series, African-American males have always lasted longer than their female counterparts.

S1: Gervase beat Ramona
S2: Nick beat Alicia
S3: Clarence beat Linda
S4: Sean beats Vecepia???

Granted, only once have they both even reached the merge (S2) and Alicia was the most feared survivor (maybe Colby?), so it made sense to get rid of an immunity threat on the pagonged tribe. I personally don't see this trend continuing...

LAST EDITED ON 04-07-02 AT 04:09 PM (EST)

Here are some more patterns (be kind, I'm not really a spoiler)...

I can't help you with 10th, but there is one important thing to note. After E7, there is always one person who seems to emerge as the "leader" of the Pagonging alliance. In the past, they have been Rich, Colby (although he wasn't really the leader), and Lex.

9th Place always seems to go to whoever is the biggest threat to the leader.

S1: Greg (who was trying to work his way onto Rich's good side)
S2: Alicia (biggest IC threat to Ogakor)
S3: Kelly (the "witch")

8th Place is the person who is the loudest and/or most annoying.

S1: Jenna (The "speedball" according to Sue)
S2: Jerri (self explanatory)
S3: Brandon (Drama Queen?)

7th Place is always the 2nd biggest immunity threat left in the game (as biggest threat usually wins immunity)

S1: Gervase ("lazy" but fast/strong)
S2: Nick (ditto)
S3: Frank (not much of a talker, but performed well in physical challenges and was a supposed expert hunter)

6th place is a cinch. 1) A "cutesy" young female contestant or, if that doesn't suit you, 2) 6th is always the best friend of whoever went 8th.

S1: Colleen (Jenna's best friend)
S2: Amber (Jerri's best friend)
S3: Kim P. (Brandon's best friend)

5th Place always goes to a "Pagong" member, if any left. Otherwise, it seems to go to the person who is the biggest threat against the jury.

S1: Sean (More well liked than the ETA)
S2: Rodger (Really nice guy)
S3: Teresa (Still left to be Pagonged)

Sorry, but I can't really think of anything for the final 4.

If I had to bet on what the post-merge boot order would be, it would depend on whether Rob or John emerged as "leader" after ep. 7. This is how I see it happening.

Alternative 1: John/Tammy/Kathy/Robert (alt: Zoe)/Neleh/Paschal leaving F4 Rob/Sean/Vee/Zoe (alt. Robert)

Alternative 2: Rob/Sean/Kathy/Vee (break pattern to Pagong)/Neleh/Paschal leaving F4 John/Robert/Tammy/Zoe (ala S1)

Alternative 3: Kathy/John/Zoe/Robert/Tammy/Paschal leaving F4 Rob/Neleh/Sean/Vee (ala S2)

Personally, I see alternative 2 as most likely...

edited to add, I don't know how much spoiler value this has, but I know I used it to predict Frank/Kim P. in S3

"Okay, work with that eyeball right there..."
- Kathy Vavrick-O'Brien

>Alternative 1: John/Tammy/Kathy/Robert (alt: Zoe)/Neleh/Paschal
>leaving F4 Rob/Sean/Vee/Zoe (alt. Robert)
>
>Alternative 2: Rob/Sean/Kathy/Vee (break pattern
>to Pagong)/Neleh/Paschal leaving F4 John/Robert/Tammy/Zoe
>(ala S1)
>
>Alternative 3: Kathy/John/Zoe/Robert/Tammy/Paschal leaving F4
>Rob/Neleh/Sean/Vee (ala S2)

Nice theory, Surv... after last night's boot of Rob, let's see how your theory plays out.

10th - Rob
9th - Sean (biggest threat to leader John)
8th - Kathy (loudest/most annoying)
7th - ?Zoe/Tammy/Robert (2nd biggest IC threat - the girls would be threats in water and Robert in physical ones)
6th - Neleh ("sweetheart" of show)
5th - Vecepia (pagong member)

Final Four: John, Paschal and two of Zoe/Tammy/Robert.

Paschal could go in 5th if Vecepia wins immunity or the Rotu 3 considers Paschal as a Pagong-type member who was on the other side after the switch.

You could debate whether Sean would be considered as a threat to John's leadership -- but we did see him having a loud verbal altercation with John in yesterday's episode.

Kudos to all of you on your great analyses of previous post-merges. Some of you have done your homework!!!

Umm... in survivor 1, wasn't GRETCHEN voted out at the merge? She's a female... You said it's always been males. But I'm a pothead, so maybe I forgot about someone....

Bongbear

For clarification, or anyone else who wants to look for trends and/or patterns, here are the first three Survivors(post merge) in boot order/original tribe/immunity.

Survivor 1

Gretchen/P/Greg
Greg/P/Gervase
Jenna/P/Rudy
Gervase/P/Richard
Colleen/P/Kelly
Sean/T/Kelly

Susan/T/Kelly
Rudy/T/Kelly
Kelly/T
Richard/T

Survivor 2

Jeff/K/Keith
Alicia/K/Keith
Jerri/O/Nick
Nick/K/Colby
Amber/O/Colby
Rodger/K/Colby

Elisabeth/K/Colby
Keith/O/Colby
Colby/O
Tina/O

Survivor 3

Clarence/B/Teresa
Kelly/B/Ethan
Brandon/S/Lex
Frank/S/Lex
Kim P/S/Tom
Teresa/S/Lex

Tom/B/Kim J
Lex/B/Kim J
Kim J/B
Ethan/B

Tumbler

A male has always been voted out 10th, meaning Gervase, Nick, and Frank.

Gretchen finished in 10th place, as she was the 7th person voted out.

LAST EDITED ON 04-11-02 AT 12:50 PM (EST)

All this statistical analysis has been very nice, but S-4 already has some differences that are surely to mess up the game.

If memory serves me correctly, every Survivor prior to this one merged 5-5 (admittedly, S-III after the swap, 6-4 ORIGINAL Boran vs. ORIGINAL Samburro). This time it's a huge 7-3 for Rotu (pre or post swap). This difference alone will cause some differences.

Unless the "Rotu-3" (note that I did NOT say "Rotu 4") of Zoe, Tammy, and Robert make the final three, then it is VERY likely that the final alliance will form only after the merge. Yes, Sean/Rob/Vee is possible, but unlikely.

Unlike previous Survivors, there are THREE major factions: Sean/Rob/(Vee), Tammy/Zoe/Robert/(John), Paschal/Neleh/(Kathy).

The ones in parenthesis above are either not strongly part of the groups OR think they're more strongly in the group than they really are. The ones in parenthesis are (IMHO) liable to shift alliances OR form a new group.

But the bottom line is that there will likely be a coalition of two of these three groups, then the remaining two will turn on each other. It should be fun going down to the wire, but I suspect the dynamic will be MUCH different than in the past, so I expect several of these trends y'all have posted will be broken up. That's not to say your info isn't valuable; it is. But we must tread through it carefully to reach our goal of spoiling the hell out of EPM.

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

Does anyone know or can find out what the second immunity challenge after the merge is??? I couldn't remember.

There is no trend for this challenge. In previous Survivors, the Immunity after the merge episode were all different. The first one was the ropes course. Australia was that stupid squares game. Africa was a memory game.

Tumbler

So say these trends continue...that means that the next person to go is the "loud or obnoxious one". Would that mean Kathy...Sean...John??? Which one do you consider to be the most obnoxious?