Problem: We have not seen blatant Rotu1.0 alliances and solid friendships (except Neleh and Pachal). Purpose of thread: to present info on the possible friendships in Rotu and to allow subsequent posters to reply on where the alliances are and/or where the alliances will be.
Spoiler value:
Presently, little. If Mara1.0 members all get booted in next episodes, Rotu1.0 alliance info may get moreso edited so it becomes difficult to determine outcome of merge when Rotu1.0 must turn on each other.
So value may not exist until those conditions and at that timepoint (i.e. total Rotu1.0 merge)
Hypothesis:
Episode 4 was crucial for info on Rotu1.0 alliances because:
1) By this time, alliances may be mostly set
2) Tribes were mixed so last chance to see all Rotu1.0 interact together
3) As storyline shifts onto the individuals of Rotu1.0, alliance info may get edited out
Materials:
VCR, videotape of Ep4, remote control (with frame-by-frame ability), 3 hours free time, patience, quasi-keen eye, splash of O.C.D.
Methods:
All group interactions were analyzed for individual interactions, e.g.; touching, waving, eye-contact, body language, smirks, smiles and basic friendly gestures. A differentiation was attempted between positive and negative interactions. An attempt was made to ignore obligatory, random and accidental interactions. Example of ignored situation: who stood next to who on wooden discs during swap, people appeared to look at a disc and b-line to it, or just take the closest, or just take what was left - they seemed to understand the random nature of the situation.
Results:
Neleh and Paschal and Kathy(N+P+K):
Rotu1.0 members that are at Mara2.0 camp
Lets address this Rotu1.0 triad first and separately to help predict what happens over at Mara2.0 camp
Overview:
We've heard the quote and seen some love between N+P, is this MB misdirection? No, but they are not co-dependent, and I believe that Paschal is more independent (better networked) of Neleh than vice versa. In Rotu1.0 they do not always walk together or stand together in groups, but data below supports they are close. The three are not as tight as N+P of course, but I think there is a friendship between Kathy and Paschal that is not there for Kathy and Neleh. Also, the K+P friendship is stronger from Kathy's side. I think Neleh dislikes Kathy and Paschal tolerates Kathy.
Summary:
Paschal leads the pecking order and is liked by both.
Data:
Update vids from Ep3:
shows everyone working on raft together but Kathy and Pasch are missing, perhaps off doing a task together.
Pre-swap:
Kathy walks over to Paschal at Rotu1.0 camp and hugs him, P is mildly receptive
Swap:
When Pasc went to Mara2.0 mat, Neleh stepped forward to hug him, Pasc then hugged Gina and Kathy but then went back to Neleh to stand next to her rather than Kathy on the other side.
Mara2.0 camp:
N+P stand next to each other while eating fruit, Gina quote, "Kathy gets on N+P's nerves, she is aggressive they are passive",
IC:
N+P walk in next to each other, N+P stand next to each other on mat and also have the closest physical proximity compared to anyone else on mat. N+P stand next to each other during the challenge, N+P standing next to each other at end of challenge while Jeff yaps
TC:
N+P sit next to each other.
Mara2.0 camp/IC/TC:
P is not shown directly next to Kathy in any of these situations, although there was a negative quote from Neleh on Kathy there was not one from P on Kathy.
All Rotu1.0 members
This includes the 3 ex-members (N+P+K) to help predict what happens at the merge
Overview:
The three strongest leaders are Gabe, John and Tammy. Gabe and John do not get along well, but Tammy gets along well with both. Gabe is respected for his strength but if his leadership decisions clash with John's and the tribe agrees with John, Gabe may lose all tribe support. John is not in this danger as much because he has developed better friendships with the rest of the tribe.
Summary:
Rotu1.0 has 2 Kings (Gabe and John) and 1 Queen (Tammy). If the Kings clash, Tammy will reign with the victor. John has more supporters so watch for rulership to shift to him and Tammy.
Pecking Order:
Leaders with possible closest friends:
John: Tammy, Robert, Zoe, Paschal, Neleh
Tammy: John, Gabe, Zoe
Gabe: Tammy, Paschal
Second Command with closest friends:
Zoe: John, Robert, Paschal, Neleh (Gabe and Tammy?)
Third Tier:
Robert: Zoe, John, Kathy
Paschal: Neleh, Zoe, John, Kathy, Gabe
Fourth Tier:
Neleh: Paschal, John,
Kathy: Paschal
Data:
Episode 3 update:
Tammy and Zoe working together, Zoe holding Robert's hand while John tends foot
Rotu1.0 camp:
John braiding Neleh's hair (Robert sitting nearby), Kathy hugs Paschal, Paschal approaches Gabe in water, John and Tammy talking together, Gabe approaches and touches both John and Tammy but gets apathetic reception and keeps walking, robert and John working together.
Swap entrance and stances:
Walk-in order (first to last):
Neleh, John, Gabe, Robert, Tammy, Paschal, Kathy, Zoe
Mat order (left to right):
Kathy, Robert, John, Gabe, Neleh, Tammy, Pasch, Zoe
Mat dynamics:
Although John and Gabe are next to each other, they are not interactive
Walking off mats to discs:
Jeff says "Go" to leave mat, 3 groups are distinct:
Group 1:
Gabe, Neleh, Tammy are first 3 to step off, and step off in unison, Gabe then stops while Neleh and Tammy b-line for discs.
Group 2:
Pasch and Zoe hesitate together before leaving mat, Zoe steps off first with Paschal immediately following
Group 3:
Kathy, Robert, John hesitate together. John steps off first, Robert follows, then Kathy.
Gabe: Throughout whole swap and disc fun, Gabe appears to be in his own little world, with others paying little attention to him when he hesitates to step on a disc, then stares down at it, then stares into the sky, then squats on his disc.
Walking from discs to mats :
When Gabe is only one standing on Rotu2.0 mat with Zoe, they are not touching, As Neleh goes to Mara2.0 mat, she gives sad wave to Gabe and Zoe. Neleh later makes remark at TC that she was bummed when she saw 2 of Rotu's strongest members on the mat when she went to her mat. When John goes to Rotu2.0 mat he chooses to stand next to Gabe over Zoe (perhaps to challenge Gabe's power? - I think this is a common thing with John - standing next to Gabe as a power struggle - not as a sign of friendship). No observances on how Robert joined bunch, but he ends up standing next to John. When Tammy walks over, John gives her a very friendly tease-face, tammy steps by Gabe and Zoe to hug the new Rotus (Rob and Sean) and then gives Gabe and Zoe a mild hug. Zoe gives wink and blows kiss to Paschal as he walks over to Mara2.0 mat. When all is done, Neleh is crying.
Walking off mats to leave area:
Zoe lingers to wave to Paschal and Neleh. John steps around the back of the whole group to wave bye to Paschal. Zoe and John gave precedence to their goodbyes over hugging their new group members which the other Rotus where doing.
Returning to Rotu2.0 camp:
Front pack: Tammy, Gabe, Vee, Rob, Sean
Back pack (out-of-earshot-far): Robert, John, Zoe
Robert and John shown fruit picking, Gabe and Tammy next to each other at fire.
Immunity Challenge:
Walk in (front to back):
Gabe, Tammy, Zoe (unsure of rest) but then camera angle changes and it is Gabe, Zoe, John (?)
Standing on mats:
Front row: Rob, Sean, Zoe, Tammy, Gabe. Vee is behind Rob and Sean, Robert is behind Sean and Zoe. John is directly behind Gabe and leaning on Gabe. Tammy is leaning on Gabe.
Around puzzle:
Tammy and Gabe on left together, zoe on top, vee on bottom, robert on right
Victory:
Zoe hugs tammy and extends arm in Gabe's direction.
Getting idol:
Vee holds it up, and Gabe and Tammy are only one to reach up and touch it.
******************************
Well, that is the data with some analysis of friendships and hierarchies, where do you think the alliances are or will be?
BI
After looking at all the clips on SeeBS, I'm not sure I agree with some of your pecking order/friendship analyses. Robert speaks of the new fractures at Rotu, and mentions specifically how he had gotten closest with Paschal and Neleh, and then Kathy. He says Gabe & "Johnny" are struggling, too. Zoe is "..her usual, happy self...like a rock...you can always rely on her..". He then mentions how they now must begin to play the game, thus tribe members talking strategy (since the switch)- < Robert > talking to Gabriel and then Johnny "will come to " (evident it is separate conversations,), or < Robert > will talk to Zoe, or Tammy. I found the difference in language interesting - Robert & Gabe discussed, while John was "talking to" Robert. Zoe was referred to warmly and mentioned twice; Tammy's name was never mentioned in conjunction with another's, so no further info there. Also, if the Rotu 5 were truly solid, they would not yet be worried too much about "playing the game", as they have 3 (MooMoo) votes before worrying about losing "one of their own".To add to your data (mine is not as detailed, but it's a start):
On the ep recaps at SeeBS, there are a number of clips - most of the individual ones are not from tv footage, so can be considered additional "peeks". The bootee's final words are always there (not from TC - another speech), and some of the challenges (& the switch). I did not count any of these clips, but instead concentrated on the individual ones. They are listed here by episode, and include if they are active (speaking) /or passive (main target of speech):
Peter 0/0, NA, NA, NA
Patricia 0/0, 0/0, NA, NA
Hunter 2/0, 1/0, 1/1, NA
Sarah 0/0, 2/0, 0/0, 1/0
Gina 0/0, 1/0, 1/0, 1/0
Sean 0/0, 2/1, 1/0, 2/1
Rob 0/1, 1/0, 0/0, 1/0
Vecepia 0/0, 0/0, 1/0, 1/0
Kathy 0/0, 1/1, 2/0, 1/0
Paschal 0/0, 0/0, 0/0, 1/0
Neleh 0/0, 0/0, 0/0, 1/0
John 0/0, 0/0, 0/2, 1/0
Robert 0/0, 1/0, 0/0, 1/0
Tammy 0/0, 1/0, 0/0, 0/0
Zoe 1/0, 0/0, 0/0, 0/0
Gabe 0/0, 0/0, 0/0, 0/0
I have not had time to analyze the group clips or the "bit players" in the other speeches, although I come away with a general sense that the same people are more prominent there, too - Hunter, Sarah, Sean, Kathy, to a lesser extent Rob, Gina, even less John, Vee, Robert, Paschal/Neleh, Gabe, Tammy, Zoe.
I found it interesting that Gabe has neither spoken nor been spoken about. Tammy & Zoe started things off, but have "faded" back. A few others may be beginning to have their story told, and have picked up here, too, such as John, Robert & perhaps Vee.
There are some pics, too, but I do not know if there is a pattern yet. (It does appear that the individual photos may foreshadow the prominent players in the next episode, but it is a bit early to confirm yet.)
Hope that adding this to your info helps~
Wow, big idiot! Majorly detailed analysis! Lots of interesting details, but I'm not sure what to make of it all. We see only 42 minutes or so out of 3 days worth of action (and I know you know that.) MB is just not giving us much this time.I have a different take on the Rotu alliances, based on my reading of last week's (Ep 4) IC. I think Kathy threw the IC & gave immunity to Rotu. I just watched my tape again, and I still see her throwing it.
In the first 5 or so seconds, neither tribe goes out super hard. It's like each is giving the other room to grab the ball if they need it. And very quickly Gabe grabs the ball & runs barking fast, urgent instructions.
And Kathy, bossy Kathy, emotional & controlling Kathy, who has no problems telling other people exactly what to do--doesn't. Instead of taking charge with specific instructions, like when she told Rotu exactly how to turn over rocks, Kathy gives vague directs--"work on that eye there" (waves vaguely down at tapestry.) Boss kathy would have said 'Sarah! Grab the third matt-not that one! The third one! Now pull it towards you! Neleh! Paschal! Etc., etc.! But she doesn't really try. Everytime it seemed like they made the slightest progress, Kathy stops them dead by repeating "You know, I think we have it upside down." "We need to start again." I don't think this was an accident. I think Kathy deliberately threw the IC when she perceived that Rotu really wanted it. Did no one else get this impression?
Throwing the IC thus shows at least 2 things.
First, Kathy is very attuned to the needs of Rotu, specifically Gabe and perhaps others working on the tapestry (Zoe, Tammy, Robert & Vee were others). She works in alliance with them to get the Rotu win. Who is she most allied with?
Second, Gabriel, who was leading the IC charge, felt insecure enough that he wanted the win. I can speculate that the reason for this is that he (or other Rotu) were unsure of their own safety if they went to TC. Remember, if only 2 of original Rotu decided to vote with 3 ex-Mara, they could topple anyone at Rotu. And still have a Rotu majority next time. Rotuans would be quite justified in thinking that the ex-Mara would vote off a strong male based on their previous boots.
I'm not sure what the alliances are/were in Rotu, but I think they were not firm enough that any of the power players on Rotu (Gabe, Zoe & John?) were willing to risk TC at that point.
This also implies that at least initially the ex-Mara were 'shopping around' for alliances, not just loafing on the beach. Remmeber, we were shown them working the first few days. There is probably more strategy going on in merging those 8 than we have been led to believe.
Sorry to jump into your 'scientific' post with my hunches & speculations, but I've been looking for a place to put this observation for a couple of days now, without starting another thread, and this is the best fit.
Swami