Well I don't even watch this show but I've decided to give it a try next week since it's after Survivor (I didn't know this week)

So here's my speculation/gathering of info:

1.) Deirdre and Hillary's Friends List:

Deirdre/Hillary were close to 4 teams

Hope and Norm = Eliminated

Danny and Oswald
Peach and Mary
Dave and Gary (lol they rhyme)

2.) Final popularity ratings for last year follow; the reason why I am putting these up is because the editing is different from Survivor....the editor of this show seems to put likability into the top few and most of the bad guys end up way down on the list, as shown by popularity (Again I didn't watch last year either so this is just my opinion based on the sites):

1. High
2. High
3. Loooow
4. High
5. High
6. Low
7. Low
8. High
9. Low
10.Low
11.Low

Current popularity in TAR2 (I realize this fluctuates over 12 weeks, but usually not by a lot for most people when there are 11 teams) By the end the highs and lows will be more definite I expect (50's on one end and 80's on the other) Please see the site for the rankings, I don't feel like typing the names out:

1. Mid-Range (70)
2. Kinda Low (60)
3. Mid-Range (76)
4. Mid-Range (68)
5. Low (37)
6. Mid-Range (66)
7. Mid-Range (72)
8. High (82)
9. Mid-Range (71)
10.Low (38)
11.Low (54)

Sooo comparing them, there was one definite villain team last year - I need to know were the Guido's hated from the beginning?

3.) CBS's comments on next week:

On the next leg of THE AMAZING RACE:

* A crush at the airport leads to mayhem and a desperate race to a faraway continent.

*Mary & Peach fear the worst when they are warned of imminent danger in a certain part of town.

*The "Gutsy Grannies" oversleep, and Blake must decide whether to wake them or let them snooze away their lead.

What does this tell us? Well if it's anything like the Survivor promo statements Mary/Peach, Peggy/Claire and Blake/Paige are safe for this week (although Hunter was mentioned in the interesting facts section last week....)

Will Blake wake his opponants? Why would he? Are he and his sister really sweet people who don't realize they're racing? This isn't Survivor and helping others won't help you much.

4.) Okay, still with me? I hope so.

IMO, the third elimination is still early and a team that has not been portrayed as amazingly likable will go. That means the targets are:

Chris/Alex
Gary/Dave
Cyndi/Russel

Factoring in Deirdre/Hillary's Friends List we have Gary/Dave going. However, since I'm not sure of the likability factor, (although looking at last year's, the first three were from the bottom half of the likability charts) and factoring in the entire friends list, my picks for the next two losers are:

Gary/Dave or Oswald/Danny

Whew now that's a lot of work for a show I've never even
seen. ^-^;;

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Now let us never speak of S3 again.

• RE: An Amazing Race Speculatory Thread....Oooooh,Cole, 02:48 PM, 03-15-02
  • RE: An Amazing Race Speculatory Thread....Oooooh,trigirl, 03:44 PM, 03-15-02
  • RE: An Amazing Race Speculatory Thread....Oooooh,Kokoro, 04:04 PM, 03-15-02
  • RE: An Amazing Race Speculatory Thread....Oooooh,heymikey, 05:52 PM, 03-15-02
  • RE: An Amazing Race Speculatory Thread....Oooooh,cmaybur, 09:10 AM, 03-16-02
• RE: The twins,Loree, 06:06 PM, 03-15-02
  • RE: The twins,curveball, 06:17 PM, 03-15-02
    • RE: The twins,Kokoro, 10:47 PM, 03-15-02
      • RE: The twins,race2fan, 01:58 PM, 03-16-02
      • RE: The twins,Alpengeist, 02:30 PM, 03-16-02
        • RE: The twins,TeamJoisey, 09:01 PM, 03-16-02

To address your points:

1. While it's speculated that this means all three of these teams get the early boot and join Deirdre and Hillary at the "undisclosed resort", I am not so sure that is necessarily true. You seem to be familiar with Survivor, but not TAR.... TAR doesn't exactly work the same way as Survivor. There seem to be many more opportunities to meet people and bond with them. Sure, Deirdre and Hillary were eliminated first, meaning they wouldn't share a 12 hour layover with anyone, but I'm not so sure they couldn't have bonded with the other teams 1) during tryouts (I think I read somewhere that each team had to go through about a week of psychological and physical tests), 2) during any pre-race information sessions etc., or 3) during the airplane ride to Rio. Deirdre and Hillary apparently got close enough to Oswald and Danny that Oswald and Danny lent them money to get to the yacht. Could have happened at any time.

2. Not sure what the correlation is.... I think you're saying that low rated teams get eliminated early and high rated teams stick around. And I think you're saying the producers manipulate the editing as they see fit to keep high rated teams in. Not so sure if that's the case. Last year, the lowest rated team, the Guidos, was very unpopular from about the second or third episode on, and they made it to the final three. Other teams that were unpopular like Matt and Ana and the Teachers did one or two things to get people to dislike them, got eliminated early and then their popularity held steady at low. But there were other low rated teams, like Karyn and Lenny and Paul and Amie, that managed to make it through to about halfway. Then were also high rated teams like the Grandparents that were eliminated fairly early. There's no correspondence between elimination and poll results. And I think it's much too early to analyze polls of this season - people haven't fully made their opinions yet.

3. Yeah, for the most part if the TAR preview implies bad things for a team it means they don't get eliminated. I don't think it necessarily means Blake and Paige are safe though.

4. I tend to disagree. Likeability has nothing to do with when the team goes - David and Margaretta were very likeable and were eliminated on the fourth episode. Personally I don't think ANY of the teams have been portrayed as amazingly likeable, except for the twins and Blake and Paige. Mary and Paige (the little we have seen of them) had a "moment" on the beach. Oswald and Danny had that unfortunate champagne remark but have been otherwise invisible. I can't make any sense of your listing since you didn't type out the names and I can't tell if the ratings have changed since then. But I would think anyone is a target. I really disagree that Chris and Alex and Cyndi and Russell are two of your likely boots... I think these two teams will make it around a while.

Just my opinions. I am not a big believer in the "editing conspiracy", as anyone from last round might remember.

Cole wrote:
>To address your points:
I think I read somewhere that each
>team had to go through
>about a week of psychological
>and physical tests), 2) during
>any pre-race information sessions etc.,

Wow...didn't know all that stuff. You'd think that Grandma Hopeless would have realized what she was getting into.

Regarding how relationships are formed...remember the first episode was three days. That's enough time to get to know people. Plus, we don't know what has been edited out. Did anyone know that Emily and Brennan were so cozy on TAR1? Producers are probably kicking themselves from missing that little juicy drama. (Probably why they are leading us with Tara and Chris.)

1.) Thanks for the info there....I had no idea they spent so much time together before the game. But I still wouldn't count out that list completely.

2.) What I'm saying here is that popularity usually doesn't make huge shifts in a poll and that the editor seems to like "good guys" winning and "bad guys" getting knocked out. If you look at the final 5 last year, only one of them had a deathly low popularity rating (the team you mentioned).

3.) Blake/Paige - I wasn't really going to put them there either as it doesn't talk about imminent danger, however any use of names is ~usually~ not a bad thing for the person mentioned.

4.) Likability seems to play a huge part for me. They film these people 24/7 (I assume)....they could change perceptions of anyone in an instant by throwing in good/bad footage. But I do agree it is really too early to go by the poll yet(Which I take as representing the general viewing audience btw).

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Now let us never speak of S3 again.

>>> Oswald and Danny had that unfortunate champagne remark but have been otherwise invisible

Cole, let it go. The champagne remark, although not funny, was meant to be a joke. Have a sense of humor when watching the show.

>>> Did anyone know that Emily and Brennan were so cozy on TAR1?

Trigirl, Brennan and Emily hooked up after TAR1, so I do not think there were any "juicy" scenes at that time. Besides, if there was, it surely would be rated R18 for sexual content.

<< Last year, the lowest rated team, the Guidos, was very unpopular from about the second or third episode on, and they
made it to the final three. >>

It was definitely during the second episode that their arrogance and smug behavior in Paris set in and their popularity went down the tubes.

<< Other teams that were unpopular like Matt and Ana... >

I don't recall Matt and Ana being especially unpopular. As is the problem with the first eliminated team is there is not enough time to really get to know them and form an opinion. They seemed like nice enough people, but made mistakes that caused them to arrive last. Mistakes like being cheap and taking the subway to JFK airport, and not asking for directions after the detour at the gorge which caused them to get lost driving around the middle of Africa at night...

<< and the Teachers did one or two things to get people to dislike them... >>

How could you dislike Kim and Leslie? They were so much fun to watch! I'm a teacher too, so I was really hoping they'd do well. I'm also a French teacher, so I was just shaking my head at their endless series of blunders in Paris. Poor Kim and Leslie... so much potential, gone too early...

Plus they were fun to watch crossing Victoria Falls in those tank tops...

<< Then were also high rated teams like the Grandparents that were eliminated fairly early. >>

And Pat and Brenda, who were eliminated third, seemed very nice too.

Chris

I've been reading a couple places that the twin with the twisted knee has a worse injury than we think. It's his ACL. So I would think that would keep them from progressing in the game.

yea, but the twins with 3 knees is still faster than the old bags with 8 knees...as long as they don't blow up, I think the twins are around for awhile...

Yes but if his achilles tendon is damaged, he really needs to get that looked out immediately -> They'd need to drop out.

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Now let us never speak of S3 again.

Here's some help with the twins. On the sirlinkalot website an article reads that one of the teams will be dismissed from the show due to injury. Seeing that the twins were hit twice in one episode I assume they are on their way out.

Umm...ACL isn't Achilles Tendon, its the anterio-collateral ligament (sp?). It runs down the anterior (back) part and lateral (interior) part of your knee. It can be VERY serious.

'scuse me for jumpin' in...

Anterior Cruciate Ligament... it runs behind the kneecap and is one of the ligaments holding your knee joint together.

This is an extremely common sports injury.
If the ACL tear is strained or slightly torn, he could continue on in the race, although it will probably be painful. If the ACL is snapped, it will probably be less painful, but more prone to slipping out and causing him to stumble and fall.

My wife tore her ACL playing softball, and had it repaired more than 15 years later. She got around just fine 99.99% of the time, without the incentive of a million dollar prize.