It's hard to tell these days how much of what we see is foreshadowing of events to come or plain ole' misdirection by MB, but I think if we can put our collective memories to work, we may be able to get some insight into the finale.

Very early on we were shown an agreement between Lex and Ethan. This is where Lex talked about Tom and their agreement (possibly to sweeten the deal when presented to Ethan). It appeared as though there was an air tight alliance between L/E/T. We have assumed that Mamma Kim is on the outskirts of this powerful alliance. (We have been led to believe that Mamma Kim has a plan but that she doesn't want to jump the gun too soon, thereby "shooting herself in the foot.")

This has been reinforced by the discussion Ethan and Lex had on their way to town to barter for the goats when they discussed getting rid of Kim J.

Tom's loyalty to Lex has been put into question several times since the Brandon issue. Theresa seemed a little too sure of herself when she commented that she could get Tom to vote against Lex. However, Tom has yet to actually break any alliance with Lex. All of this, I believe, is misdirection. Their alliance is solid.

Ethan's loyalties, on the other hand, have not been questioned by anyone. He has questioned Lex's "word", but we have not seen any cast members worrying about Ethan's loyalties. Why would that change now? Why would Ethan's throat be on the line with Crazy Lex? No, this comment has to be about Tom. Too much time has been spent belaboring the issue of Tom and Lex's "marriage".

Add to that Lex has been shown at least on two occassions talking about how he is going to be the last one standing.

How much of this is misdirection and how much of it is foreshadowing?

Consider the following. Why would MB work so hard to show us Lex and Ethan's alliance from the beginning, never calling it into question if it holds true? Last season MB did everything he could to hide the Tina/Colby alliance. I believe this is to make us comfortable with the Lex/Ethan agreement, but to call into doubt Tom's agreement with Lex. They want us to think the cannibalization of OB will start with MK, but will it? Is her position really that weak? I don't think so. I think that the one alliance that hasn't been questioned (by editing) that of Ethan and Lex is the one that is the least reliable. Tom will not vote against Lex, but I believe Ethan will.

It's tough to parce through all of these carefully placed blurbs to find out how much is foreshadowing of the finale and how much is misdirection to fool the viewer, but I believe we are smarter than that. If we don't "out-think" ourselves, I believe we can piece together a reasonable scenario for the finale. Any takers?

• RE: Foreshadowing Vs. Misdirection,dabo, 01:37 PM, 01-03-02
• RE: Foreshadowing Vs. Misdirection,westgirl98, 07:20 PM, 01-03-02

Well, first of all, what I heard when Lex and Ethan went to town was a discussion about voting out Kim no-initial-given, I assumed they were talking about Kim P. Was there something from Survivor Insider or somewhere to indicate they were actually talking about Kim J.?

Second, after the 3-3 switch Ethan said in confessional that the two people he was closest to in the game were over at Samburu, he also refered to Clarence as his greatest threat. He appeared to buddy up with Kim J. during this time, this is no doubt what cemented her place in the OB alliance. Kelly indicated that she thought the real alliance in Old Boran was Lex/Ethan/Kim J./Kelly with Tom on the outside, so if Kim J. was under the same impression she may still be thinking Tom is the fourth (last) member (after Kelly was ousted because Lex's gut thought her untrustworthy though she'd been nothing but a team player up till then). Therefore, she may delay making her move because of a mistaken impression, and that delay could be a fatal decision on her part.

Lex rattled both Ethan and Tom by bringing Brandon in, but realistically under the circumstances he had little choice but to try to turn one of the Samburu. Even had he not given Kelly a warning beforehand that they were voting her off, forcing her to run over to Samburu thus giving them superior numbers unless Brandon was turned, had he instead misdirected Kelly's vote to one of the Samburu, the tc would have tied 4-4-1 with Lex and Kelly not being allowed to vote in the revote, all four Samburu would have maintained their votes on Lex and he would have been gone. Even though we didn't get to see it, I'm certain that Lex laid out at his version of these facts for Tom and Ethan at some point. He would have had to.

"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

I'll bite, but I disagree I think Tom will vote against Lex in a hot second to futher himself in the game. This goes back to an earlier posting I did about Tom giving a radio interview a few weeks ago.Normally that would mean maybe he was voted out but he is still around weeks later so now I'm wondering if he's the winner.or at least one of the top 2. the rumour mill had it that Tom and Ethan were doing apperances together. If thats true then they must have been the final 2 but then again maybe MB wants us to think that.so anything is possible but I am standing by my theory that Lex goes tonight followed by MamaKim and then Ethan. I may be wrong but I feel if Teresa can get MamaKim and Tom over to her side then she may have a shot especially if she can win the IC's like kelly did in the first survivor. The jury also is gonna be made up of mostly Samburu which could go either way in Teresa's case. I think Ethan and MamaKim are pretty close so I dont see him turning on her at this point.He's gotta figure his chances are better going up against her rather than Tom but only time and 2 weeks will tell...........