I'm not sure why everyone thinks that there will be people defecting left and right this episode (#13). I have seen people saying that Kim J will be voted out (in lieu of Theresa) or that Tom will turn on Lex or that Lex will turn on Tom or Ethan.

It seems to me that these are all bad moves from a strategic point of view b/c the person ejected will be sitting on the jury and be PISSED!!
Disgruntled jury members are very bad (e.g., Sue, Jerri, and probably Kelly), and I think that the players are likely keeping that in mind.

Although I think that Kim J is annoying and unimaginative and generally should have been ousted ages ago, she clearly would have been screwed with the jury if she had defected to the "all girls alliance". Therefore, it seems to me that L/E/T have her exactly where they want her. She can't defect b/c she will lose in the final voting but she can't stay b/c she will lose sooner than that to the boys. Sucks for her, I guess.

But despite everything I just said, I'm still rooting for T-bird to pull it out somehow (immunity??). She is trying her darndest at every turn and trying to make the game interesting and I think that she rocks!! I respect the way that she's playing with all the odds against her, and with a couple of immunities she just might be able to do it.

• RE: Remember the JURY!!,msanford, 11:05 AM, 01-02-02
• RE: Remember the JURY!!,dabo, 11:11 AM, 01-02-02
  • RE: Remember the JURY!!,gemstone, 12:32 PM, 01-02-02
  • Who would the jury vote for??,msanford, 01:03 PM, 01-02-02
    • RE: Who would the jury vote for??,JohnMc, 01:44 PM, 01-02-02
      • RE: Who would the jury vote for??,gemstone, 01:54 PM, 01-02-02
        • Lex p/o'ing people, and that doesn't mean pagonging,JohnMc, 05:10 PM, 01-02-02
      • RE: Who would the jury vote for??,dabo, 02:00 PM, 01-02-02
        • RE: Who would the jury vote for??,managerr, 04:20 PM, 01-02-02
        • RE: Who would the jury vote for??,JohnMc, 06:00 PM, 01-02-02
• RE: Remember the JURY!!,coyotedean, 05:54 PM, 01-02-02
  • RE: Remember the JURY!!,Serendipity, 06:36 PM, 01-02-02
    • Teresa makes it to the final 2, she will win,bergdogg, 02:32 AM, 01-03-02
      • RE: Teresa makes it to the final 2, she will win,dabo, 09:28 AM, 01-03-02

I'd just like to add that the theories about what's going to happen on the show that appear in this message board are usually MUCH more interesting than what actually happens on the show.

LAST EDITED ON 01-02-02 AT 11:16 AM (EST)

Well, here's an interesting idea for speculation, who would the current jury members be most likely to vote for in the end of the remaining players? My take would be:

Kelly: Teresa (an anti-Boran vote because her alliance turned on her); Tom (everyone likes the big guy); Ethan (unknown quantity); Lex (made her out to be the "witch"); Kim J. (her trusted buddy threw her to the wolves).

Brandon: Lex (the only player remaining he could call a friend); Ethan (unknown quantity but did nothing to get on his bad side); Kim J. (she's not Teresa); Tom (even though he epitomizes everything Brandon must loathe, the big guy gets away with it); Teresa (last remaining of the hated OFA).

Frank: Teresa (stalwart guy would not abandon his buddy in the end); Tom (most like Frank, a man he can respect); Kim J. (alternate to Teresa, they got along well in NB and happily rid Africa of Silas); Lex (a family man even though with an entirely different background to Frank); Ethan (unknown quantity).

Kim P.: Tom (he gets away with murder, even Jessie loved him on the way out); Teresa (last of the original Samburu); Ethan (likeable nice guy); Lex (fool played into Samburu hands, if only he hadn't been able to sway Brandon to the dark side he wouldn't even still be around to try for the final two); Kim J. (the last hope failed the women's alliance and what has she ever done but be the kiss of death anyway).

"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

Kim P would vote Teresa or Lex over Tom. Kim P says Ethan is a great, amazing, nice, funny, charismatic guy. There is nothing wrong with Ethan. She says Teresa is one she wants to win and describes her similarily.

Of the remaining five - who would the jury vote for:

Kelly: Theresa - the only one not to turn on her. (Although she did call her manipulative in her interviews). Probably Ethan second - he only passively betrayed her (as opposed to KimJ and Lex who actively did so).

Brandon: Lex - I don't understand it but it seems to be the case. I read somewhere that Brandon had something going with someone on the show - maybe this is where Lex fit in. Probably Ethan second. He's a cutie.

Frank - T-bird. He told her to vote for him and does not consider that betrayal at all. Tom would be second in his book.

KimP: Theresa. T-Bird really did her best to keep KimP in the game despite the opposing alliances early on. I'd bet she might pick T-Bird, although Tom is a close second.

Any of the Samboohoos will vote for TBird if she makes f2. She's done her darndest to keep all of them in as long as possible. I believe she's genuinely disappointed when one of them leaves, like Kim P. She even tried to keep Brandon when he defected w/Lex. She only voted for Frank because he told her to. And she gets Kelly's vote since she also tried to keep her on and vote out Lex. That's 4 votes, enough to win. All she has to do is make it that far, which may be a stretch given 3 more TCs, and the next IC being the super duper blow-me challenge favoring the guys over the girls. (Where's Alicia when you need her?)

Lex has basically p/o'd all of the current jury members, so he may as well quit now. He'd have to give an impassioned speech in order to get any of the OS+K to convert. The other three remaining OB have good chances depending on who they are up against. MamaK can really only win against Lex. If F2 is Tom and Ethan, then it will be 3-4 tossup. Not sure which way it goes, but EPM will be happy with that kind of a final. Good for ratings, should beat Friends for a week.

"Lex has basically p/o'd all of the current jury members, so he may as well quit now."

Lex has only p/o'd Kelly. What has he done to Frank, Brandon and Kim P? He has not betrayed them.

Kelly - obvious

Frank - never had the bond w/Lex that he did w/Tom or TBird. Lex is plain obnoxious, power hungry, and a self-appointed leader. Don't think Frank will vote for him. Besides, it starts to fall on tribal lines, IMO.

Brandon - yeah, Lex didn't vote for him, but Brandon's undoing was his temporary alliance w/Lex. Seems reason enough to not vote for him.

Kim P - Kim voted for Lex everytime she got a chance. He's obnoxious, power hungry, and a self-appointed leader. (Have I said that Lex is obnoxious yet?)

That's my reasoning for saying Lex can't get a vote. Not really strong reasoning, but it'll have to do for now.

And that's all I got to say about that... (ala Gump)

Well, I doubt if T-Bird would get Brandon's vote even though she was the least offensive of the OFA (in his view, certainly), but under the current circumstances if she actually managed to get to the final two she would certainly deserve to win. Lex, on the other hand, has exercised a lot of control over the game (particularly since the merge) and, even though I don't think highly of how he's played things, would have those dominant factors in his favor in going for the win. Politically, he has messed up in many ways, so it would come down to how well he presents himself before the jury in the end. My feeling is that he can't handle the scrutiny as well as Richard Hatch or Tina Wesson did, he might wind up looking like Captain Queeg trying to scramble out from under, in which case his goose would definitely be cooked.

"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

Ok--there is a difference if you defect in this episode rather than any other. In order to make it work--you need a double defection. Suppose Tom and Ethan decide to bump of Lex and Kim J now. It works because the plan is for Tom and Ethan to take each other to the jury. You both defected--they still have to choose between one of you.

I do think Kim J should have defected earlier anyway. She has zero chance to win--I think even Lex could beat her at this point.

TBird would get Brandon's vote. It's OS, for one. She's played a good game. She's flown UTR and still tried to get Samboohoo into the final 4, though each time she's surrounded by idiots who screw up the plan. Plus, if you recall, the GXA was going to keep TBird because they like her.

I STILL WANT THERESA TO WIN!!!

Now that Kim P is on the jury... The only person still in the game that we're sure knows Tom has the 3 mall rats votes is LEX. I havn't seen any discussion of peoples prior votes... except the paranoid Lindsey.
Even when Clarence was in the Moto-Magi's gun-sites I don't recall any letting the cat out of the bag. Also I think the votes against Clarence were more than just warning shots to him after his bean and cherry pig out. I think they didn't want the sickly people to go on unanimous votes as if they were hated by everyone. They were mercy vote-offs and they all knew how crushed Debb was when she realized she didn't have a single friend in the outback.

Tom should keep Lex around because Lex has about 10 million prior votes(if you count all of us on the web) and it makes for an easy tie-breaker AND everyone knows he's got them.

So When Teresa told MamaK that she could get Tom to vote for Lex why didn't she think she could count on KimPs vote against LEX?
MAYBE it was because that exchange actually occured AFTER KimP was booted and not before like SEE-BS wants us to believe!! and maybe a mall rat told Teresa about Tom's votes.

To make a long story short.

01/03 IC Lex / Boot Teresa
01/06 IC Ethan / Boot MamaKim
01/06 FINAL 3 LEX/TOM/Ethan
Final 2 LEX/TOM
Winner TOM

I think Lex will win the last IC and will pick Tom over Ethan. I also think that Tom's bad mouthing Lex's 'Brandon Promise' to Ethan is just to feel-out Ethan's animosity towards Lex... Tom is Playing a Great Game. I think Lex Picked up Brandon and Dumped Kelly because Kelly was leaning towards a KimJ/Ethan/Kelly final 3. Now Lex has Brandon in his pocket in a jury vote.

jury vote.
for LEX... Brandon KimP KimJ
for TOM... Kelly Frank Ethan Teresa

Not quite as sure Lex has Brandon in his pocket since he made the "walk of shame" comment regarding being booted out. Neither Brandon nor Kelly seemed to like that crack.

There is no possible way that Teresa could not win Suvivor 3 if she win immunity all the way to the end.

Think about it!!! If Teresa gets to the final 2, people will see her stride to the final 2 as couragous, intelligent, and flat out incredible. She could be in the final 2 with Jesus Christ himself and would win. This is of course after he would have been cruxified, since he came back from the dead. That is the exact thing Teresa would have done.

Teresa wins 7-0 against Lex, even when she tells the jury she was the versatile "LEX" vote. That would be seen as even more impressive.

I don't see Teresa losing in a Final 2 against anybody at this point, and there is no plausible argument against that statement.

LAST EDITED ON 01-03-02 AT 09:29 AM (EST)

Absolutely, for Teresa to make the final two at this point would be incredible, she would either need to win the last three immunities, manipulate through tc12 and win the last two immunities, or pull a coup of manipulation to rip apart the OB alliance. That still wouldn't ensure her a sweep of the jury votes, however, particularly were it Ethan she faced off against in the final two.

The thing is, though, that in the previous two Survivors the win went to the player who presented the best face before the jury, and at this point the only two sure things we can say about the jury votes are that Frank would vote for Teresa and that Kelly would not vote for Kim J., everything else is pure guesswork.

"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")