That's why you were talking about snuffing Chris' torch...

nice theory, but it's just that.

a theory.

I was voting solely for Paris in recent weeks, because she was in danger and I'm a fan.

and when she left, I switched to Taylor -- because he's my favorite left.

I didn't like Paris because of her "balladeer" style. besides, she didn't usually sing ballads! I liked Paris because she's so talented and I like her personality. that girl has major potential.

I like Taylor for completely different reasons.

I'm not just going to switch to whomever is most like Paris, good lord.

are people really that superficial?

wait, don't answer that. it's too depressing.

How is it in the least bit superficial to say "Well, I was voting for X because X was the closest to my favorite style of music, now that X is gone I will vote for Y because Y is the next closest to my favorite style of music"?

because it's style over substance.

I adored Fantasia, but I'm not into her style of music.

I didn't vote for her because I like R&B, I voted for her because I thought she's a real star.

same with Paris. I voted for her because she's talented, not because I think she'd put out a CD that's my taste.

and when they have these idiotic themes, we can't really vote based on our personal tastes in musical styles, can we?

I suppose sure, if you're a rock purist, and think anything else sucks, you'll only vote for Chris.

but then ... a rock purist wouldn't be watching the show in the first place, right?

it just doesn't work. imo.

>>I didn't vote for her because I like R&B, I voted for her because I thought she's a real star.<<

See, but that's YOU. You can pick whomever you'd like to vote for, for whatever reason you decide. I'll do the same.

There are alot of people who DO vote for the person whose style of music they like best. People who just don't care about talent or star-quality unless it's a genre they like to listen to.

I don't think that's superficiality, it's diversity.

I sorta understand your point, (because I felt the reverse with Paris -- I DO like Paris' type of music -- I'm a hoary old cabaret singer myself, and love all the Billie, Ella, Sarah, etc. that I can get my hands on...but I DIDN'T like Paris. So I didn't vote for her. teh.)

But I don't agree with your point. This isn't a court of law where the judges get to instruct us on exactly what to consider when we make our decision. (well, they try...but you know ;) )

>>and when they have these idiotic themes, we can't really vote based on our personal tastes in musical styles, can we?<<

Yeah, but we can all see the singers' styles even through the themes, can't we? Especially when Chris sings Live for Country night or Bo sings "Vehicle" for Disco night.

No, it's what you like over what you don't like. I recognized Fantasia's talent, but I would never in a million years buy a CD of hers. So I never voted for her. Likewise, I recognize Paris' talent, but I would never buy a Paris CD. No matter how much I might recognize someone's talent, I am not going to vote for them unless I would buy something they put out. To me, that's the point of Idol - not to vote for the one with the most talent, but to vote for the one you like the most.

Here are the numbers.

The top set is copied from the Dial Idol ranking from the webpage. The bottom set I divided by the total number of people that week as that seemed to be something they did in making the rankings. It seemed to make each week more comparable to the next.

A graph of the raw data.

Here is a graph of the normalized data with linear trend lines.

If we use this theory, it looks like Kat and Elliot are the ones that have at least so far been picking up more voters as we go along than either Chris or Taylor. Taylor started out so far above the others he didn't have to do much to stay on top until now.

snidget, I feel way too stupid about numbers to try to understand how you did that. lol.

but it looks cool, and seems believable.

thanks for sharing it.

Very interesting data indeed. The graph certain seems to indicate that Taylor has done very little to pick up votes since the beginning of the competition - which fits nicely into Podhertz's theor because Taylor doesn't have a similar style to any of the contestants who were voted off and therefore didn't pick up their votes. Taylor voters have stayed consistently Taylor voters and so far that has been enough.

However, you can see that other contestants HAVE picked up support along the way - either because of improved performances or by gaining some percentage of the dismissed idols voters. If the trend lines hold then Paula is right and Elliott is our next idol (and as Dweeze pointed out in another thread, he is the only of the top four who actually needed towin to have a serious career).

It will be very interesting to see what happens next, I tend to think that any Chris voters who still participate will likely go to Kat so I would love to see an update on the trend lines after this week. I think it would be especially interesting to look at the trend lines on this data in a smaller set (like say 6 weeks) since the first few weeks had voting just all over the board and people were still getting to know the contestants.

Thanks for sharing Snidget!

But, the four of us had a great time.

That is AWESOME Snidg --

thank you SO much for doing & sharing!

Nicely done - despite my problems with Dial Idol's info, nicely done.

Wow! Great stuff! It really shows how Elliot has been picking up support (the underdog voter perhaps?) and Katherine as well.

Taylor has always had more support than Chris, despite the shocked voters of Chris...and shows why Chris was voted off.

Taylor needs to be "Taylor" this week or it could easily wind up Elliot and Kat in the end. I am really surprised by the findings from the graphs and appreciate the effort you put in Snidget.

Elliot is the dark horse of the contest. I guess the judges' pleas for him worked.

P.S. I would like to match up the singing order data with the voting table you provided Snidget. This explains why Chris got so much pimping--they knew he had a good fan base but did not have the growth that some others had.

Who sang last and comparing to Snidget's data:

12 Chris --came in 2nd of f4
11 Ace
10 Elliot -- came in third of the f4
9 Bucky
8 Paris
7 Katherine --came in third and Chris was last of the f4

6 Chris --got to sing last after he was in bottom group the previous week

5 Taylor --and he was tops of the f4 group
4 Katherine -- and she edged out Chris

I think Idol DID pimp Chris by letting him sing last a second time( with 6 left) b4 Taylor...but they knew he needed help.

I also think Elliot surprised them...and Chris's fans were a) complacent and b) not as many as underdog voters...for Kat and Elliot.

"why Chris went home and why Elliott will actually be the next American Idol."
It is because although Chris started off well he never changed. Rested on his laurels.
In the meant time Elliot has constatly improved.
I like Taylor but I have to admit Elliot is moving up.

http://us.f2.yahoofs.com/bc/429d145f_13c1b/bc/My+Documents/for+real.bmp?bfHiRnCB5UBnivLr

I disagree that Chris never changed. I think he started to decline. He seemed to be coasting on the Elvis show. He didn't have the solid support that Taylor has (I think Taylor is the only contestant that hasn't been in the bottom 2/3 - Chris was at least once).

Between the tepid Elvis covers and the sunglasses, Chris wasn't playing to the AI audience. Any rocker who wants to be the American Idol - and I can't see why any would want to go much further than Chris did (get the exposure, get the offers and get out) - can't play rocker dude until the competition is over. The music might get him there, but the poseur attitude won't.

Taylor, on the other hand, seems to be a pretty happy guy - and not in the kind of creepy way that Gideon was. Taylor is having fun, and I think people respond to that (ok, I respond to that when I watch him - he also happens to be a pretty good singer, though not the best of the group).

Elliot is a very good singer, but projects little personality and isn't as comfortable on stage as Chris (very few people could be as comfortable as Taylor). Once it got to the finaly 4 I would have been pretty happy with any of them, but thought Elliot needed more time to develop a presence. Sorry to see him go, but I'm sorry to see any of them go at this point (after a kick in the pants last week, it'd be interesting to see what Chris would have come up with).

I do think the voting reminds pretty consistant, it is the same group of people who are willing to sit on a phone and vote for 2 hours, something some people are not willing to do but others are, and that's what it takes to win AI. The voting is pretty consistant but occasionally someone like Elliot comes along who does such a great job he get's more votes he normally would causing an upset like Chris going home Wednesday. I think voters will vote for someone who does a really great job, even if maybe they did'nt vote so much for them before.

LAST EDITED ON 05-17-06 AT 01:29 PM (EST)

I read the politics and somewhat agree. But I also think that Elloitt is getting some pity votes and this is not what its all about. Some people see Taylor as arrogant but really look he is a guy with talent and is having fun, he just doesnt care what we think he is being himself. He is a showman I agree, and he seems like he likes to be with people who like to have fun. I like Katherine and if she seems snooty well she does have talent and has sex appeal and beauty. I hope it comes down to Taylor and Kat they deserve it, Elloitt well just because his Mama wants him to win doesnt make him the most talented and appealing. I REALLY LIKED CHRIS AND I am not a hard rocker but he was good and both he and Taylor are showmen and put their heart into it!