Although I'm not sure it is that good of an idea given the recent actions of these people... I have decided to try and use logic to figure out who will be evicted this week (use logic!?! LMAO ICB).

Given the following:
o there are 8 people left
o those 8 are evenly divided between Old Boran's and Old Samburu's
o the tie break rules are based on past votes (and everyone knows this)
o the past votes for those remaining are Lex-6, Tom-3, and Frank-1
o there is only one person with immunity each week

We can safely say that although anything is possible, the most likely strategies would be:

A) four-four split along former tribal lines

B) five-three split involving Brandon + the old Boran

C) 7-1 split against Brandon or Lex

D) Rock, Paper, Scissors... DEATHMATCH (ok maybe not)

If we assume A) then Lex or Tom will be the one to go based on prior votes. Lex is certainly the more likely of the two, because Tom is generally more liked. However if Lex is somehow able to win the IC this week, and the vote goes down 4-4... Tom will be the one evicted.

If we assume B) then Brandon will have decided to vote as a member of the Borans, and there is no person he would rather see leave the game than Frank. If he swaps sides he can ensure that his new friends boot Frank this week and this week only, and if it goes down this way watch him force the issue (becuase of a possible Frank IC win, it is concievable it could be KimP or Theresa... but not likely).

If we assume C) then the people have decided to unite and all former allegences are at the very least suspect.

So that leaves us with Lex and Brandon being the most likely, followed closely by Tom and Frank, and an outside shot at KimP and Theresa. Ethan and KimJ are "logically" safe.

Ok, if those that are not are not "logically" safe... do we have any spoilers that might push us one direction or another?

Dianes friends... appears to have played itself out.
Kelly's chat... nothing that appears overly trustworthy.
Lex being sick... perhaps could be useful?
Tom looses weight... he's already lost a bunch.
"We are Family"... gay alliance? most despised person booted?
Estrogen Alliance... not unless you count Brandon!
LET shown early... probably means it goes down soon?
Preview misdirection... points at Brandon, is he safe?
Face time... no one with more than Lex lately, is he gone?
Brandon's strategy revelation... gone? safe? red herring?

My thinking goes something like this: add Lex being sick, "We are family" refering to the most despised person being voted off, the early LET revelation, face time, misdirection, and a little of everything else, I think LEX goes this week and I think he is voted off 7-1.

Then again, given the lack of logic of these people, option "D" is not all that far fetched!

-ICB

• RE: Logical Options,sleeeve, 07:52 PM, 12-10-01
• RE: Logical Options,dabo, 02:37 AM, 12-12-01
• RE: Logical Options,anotherkim, 09:52 AM, 12-12-01

Hmmm... you caught me typing up my first official GUT of the season...

I'm, thinking Option B, for reasons explained, here:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/1942.shtml

Hadn't considered Option C (or D for that matter), but I agree with your analysis that these are far fetched.

Option A is DEFINATELY the most logical choice!!! The best thing that Brandon can do at this point in the game is to re-ally with his old tribe. There is speculation on this board that the unlikely date for the movie will be Brandon and Frank...

This could possibly bring them together, or it could be the driving force in splitting them apart, and making it impossible for Samburu to reunite this week.

I agree with everything you say except Kim P. being an outside option. In my opinion, Brandon is such a wuss that he would balk at voting off his former GXA buddy, but otherwise might follow his Boran new alliance in anything else. Lex's gut (absurd as it is) led him to ally with Brandon so he probably won't stress the guy too much by targetting his former GXA pal (which he knows from by having been in Samburu II), so if Lex is smat (iffy but possible) he will go after Frank or Teresa next. His bad gut likes T, who knows what that's about, so Frank would be his obvious pick. Would Brandi go for that? Smart as he seems, Brandon isn't RichHatch, he doesn't do devious all that well, so he might not consider realligning with Samburu beyond carrying his former pal (Kim P.) as far as possible (despite how she may react to his defection).
PS: had you stuck around chat I would have agreed with you.
"If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few miserable individuals might linger, but even these in a year or two would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

I am leaning toward option A. I just don't see Ethan and Kim voting aganst Lex at this point since they have stuck with him through his dumber moments. Tom's statement during the previews does bring his own tie to lex into question, though, and he hasn't had an original thought yet. Plus, that would be an awfully obvious clue if Tom and OB turn on Lex. The betrayal, though, could mean that one of them crosses over or considers it. Who knows? Maybe Tom pushes for Brandon to target Lex while they are on their date (I see the two of them being hte unlikely couple). Tom knows he is vulnerable and not much of an immunity threat.

I think Brandon will prevail and convince KimP and the OFA that he had to do what he did and do it secretly to preserve their advantage. KimP may be pissed, but she wants to stay. Teresa is smart and so is Frank. They may make a move to OB to see who bites and might join with them, but they'll stick with the ones who can take them the farthest...with Brandon and Kim, they are in the final 4--with Boran, one of them is #5. Frank and Teresa will stick together like glue. Neither is going to sacrifice the other for a chance to still come in #4 in an alliance with OB.

Kim--confused as ever