I know a lot of people think Ethan is in an alliance with Lex and Tom, but I think that is due to limited choices more than anything. While he gets along with them, I think he actually will like Frank better than Tom. I see a possible Ethan-Kim J-Frank-Teresa alliance. Ethan wants Clarence out since he will be a threat in individual IC's, and the whole Boran tribe doesn't completely trust Clarence. Clarence knows he is sort of on the outs, and I think he may risk trying to ally with any mallrats that make it to the merge like he did with Silas (IF Clarence makes it to the merge -- but I think he is a bigger target for the next boot than Teresa). Ethan knows that Frank and T are not going to vote with any old Samburus, so they are safe to form an alliance with. Ethan seems to have a good relationship with Kim J, and I think Kim J is more on Ethan's side than Clarence's. I do not think Ethan would betray Lex or Tom early on, but as the tribe thins out, I think Tom will get on Ethan's nerves.

• RE: Ethan's alliances,zzz, 02:04 PM, 11-10-01

ice--

I think you have overlooked a few points. First, once you form an alliance, it is not that easy to just switch. Ethan formed one with Lex and Tom by the end of the first few days. He has even said in the last episode that the 2 people he was closest to personally went to Samburu. You don't just switch alliances at a whim like that because MB shook up the teams.

My second point is more strategic and is a combination of things I have said and others have said about Ethan's position right now. We cannot know for sure whether Ethan was ready to dump Clarence. But after the threat of a delayed merge there is NO way he can do it now. Next Boran TC, Teresa has to go. Otherwise Ethan is at risk of a 2-2 tie if they go back to TC in E7 (a time that should be after the merge but Jeff threatened may not) with no guarantee of winning the tie breaker (because Jeff did not announce Silas' vote and there is no guarantee who Clarence would vote for in E6 or whether it would be announced). Thus, Ethan has to stick with Old Boran and cannot join with Frank and Teresa (unless somehow Boran does not go back to TC prior to the merge).