It seems that there is a lot of speculation that the Old Boran tribe will come back together to form a strong alliance after the merge. I think that Lex/Tom/Kelly are looking to return to the comfort of the original tribe as is Ethan. I think that MommaKim may not be in the same boat though.MommaKim knew she would have been voted out if Boran lost the Ep4 IC. Since the switch we have seen her become a more active strategist, taking more of a leadership role. She has bonded with Teresa and Frank and may feel she has a better chance of staying in the game if she is alligned with them. If Boran votes of Clarence in the next episode (if if if). Then if the merge is E7 (if if if, the OFA and old Boran will use the knowledge of Lindz's previous votes to vote her off. It seems like it would be smarter for KimJ to side with Teresa and Frank at this point rather than join with the rest of Old Boran where she would be in the same position she was in in Ep4, the weakest link of the group.
Siding with the OFA would make her more of a leader in her alliance. Of course this is all speculation based on unconfirmed assumptions. But in sum, I feel like it would be wise for Kimj to hesitate before jumping on board the Old Boran ship.
You have touched on some points that I have addressed in other threads. I believe we should pay more attention to KimJ because she is a key to many things. The fact that she has NEVER been seen in an alliance talk with anyone, even in Survivor Insider (based on what I have read) says a lot to me. I cannot believe she would never have any such talks. MB ALWAYS hides a bit of the alliances because otherwise things are too predictable.I have my own reading of KimJ being the one that would be thrown out if they had lost IC in E4. I believe that her conversation with Ethan was a result of the fact that LET are all aligned with KimJ (probably with the sub-alliances of LT and EK). This is supported by the Survivor Insider clip of Kelly and Clarence talking about voting off Lex but not being sure that KimJ would go along. Of course, Kelly may be in an alliance with Ethan or others and may have been blowing smoke up Clarence's butt.
Back to my basic point. I think that KimJ was told by LET that if they lost in E4 they would HAVE to throw her overboard because if they go down 6-4 at the merge the whole tribe is lost (they had no idea how divided Samburu was at that point). She understands this reality and reluctantly agrees (what can she really do). But I bet the promise was made that if they got close enough to the merge, she would be safe and back in the alliance full steam ahead. Of course this is much speculation, but I think I have some evidence as noted above.
So let's track your thinking a bit. Does KimJ have an incentive to go over to Frank and Teresa. Well, if I am right then NO, she is part of a strong alliance and would be a fool to give that up. But what if I am wrong. KimJ was clearly vulnerable pre-merge only because of physical weakness. After a merge this would be irrelevant so again I take nothing from the fact that she would have been tossed over pre-merge from how she would be treated by her old tribe mates post-merge.
If she does go in with Frank and Teresa--she pretty much has made her choice and will have no other allies. She knows that any GXAers that may be left post-merge will be happy to join anyone that is trying to take out her new alliance partners. So once a merge took place--there is a great chance that Ethan -- if he is left -- will join everyone else to vote off Frank and Teresa and then probably KimJ -- then the rest of the GXAers would be taken care of.
No--her best bet is to wait for the merge and hope that whatever strategy she was relying on before (e.g., an alliance with Ethan or an alliance with Kelly and Clarence) can be reassembled then. Old Boran needs to get rid of all of old Samburu before it is really safe to turn on themselves (with the possible exception of Clarence at some point).