A series of factors have come into play to strongly increase the chances of a Boran win in EP4:

1. Boran win have an incredible advantage of going into the challenge fully hydrated. The large supply of fresh water will allow the Boran to remain hydrated and far better prepared to compete in physical challenges.

2. Video captures are indicating that both challenges will be physical in nature:
   
   • The cargo netting scramble indicates an obstacle course; and
     
   • The log and structure carrying sequence looks like a house moving.
   
   

3. Boran recently voted off two of physically weaker members of the team and Samburu just voted one of its physically stronger members.

4. Samburu are not as emotionally united as the Boran are.

If EP4 contains two very physical challenges, then Boran has to be strongly favored. The only advantage that Samburu might have is a possibile agility advantage over Big Tom on the some potential components of an obstacle course (eg: the balance beam over water)

Should Samburu lose go to Tc after losing one or both physical challenges, the Gen Xers will just have received an object lesson on the importance of retaining physical strength for the challenges. I think Frank will remain safe at TC for this reason and the choice will be between Teresa and Linda.

Note this cap from the EP4 preview where Teresa is standing along side the Gen Xers and Teresa is saying 'Thaaaaaank You'. It seems more than a little sarcastic and it seems like something just happened to piss Linda off:

If Linda isn't pissed off then I am sure Lindsey is about to be pissed off. I think that for lack of physical strength and for being annoying Linda will be voted off in the very likely event that Samburu loses the IC.

• RE: Physical Factors for EP4...,dangerkitty, 08:47 PM, 10-27-01
  • RE: Physical Factors for EP4...,AmberFan126, 10:32 PM, 10-27-01
  • Kelly spoiler,Outfrontgirl, 00:51 AM, 10-28-01
• RE: Physical Factors for EP4...,munson, 10:03 PM, 10-27-01
• RE: Physical Factors for EP4...,mavsfan, 00:04 AM, 10-28-01
• Frank is now the Water boy!,Krautboy, 12:38 PM, 10-28-01
  • RE: Frank is now the Water boy!,Lurking, 09:55 AM, 10-29-01
  • RE: Frank is now the Water boy!,ItzLisa, 11:45 AM, 10-29-01
• The buffs,ConanRDU, 05:28 PM, 10-29-01
• RE: Physical Factors for EP4...,dangerkitty, 06:47 PM, 10-29-01
• RE: Physical Factors for EP4...,turtle, 02:08 AM, 10-30-01
  • Don't Minimize the Water Advantage...,IceCat, 03:13 AM, 10-30-01
• RE: Physical Factors for EP4...,SurvivorGuy, 10:39 AM, 10-30-01

Great job as usual, Ice! Having these challenge vidcaps is so terrific, thanks to all who go to the effort to bring them here.

I agree, the hydrated Borans have an advantage. We have seen the toll dehydration takes.

The Samburu are still a strong group, though. Silas, Frank, Lindsey, Kim P., Teresa are all extremely fit. Linda, maybe not in that league, and Brandon certainly not. They presumably can sit one out for the RC, but not the IC. Only Teresa is not eligible to sit out.

The Boran have water but weakness. Lex, Clarence, and Ethan all seem solid. Kim J. has not shown up as particularly strong. Kelly either, and it is mentioned both in SI clip and CBS video that she is "not an athlete". Tom: Big guy, yes, but he puked after the boulder IC, SI clip shows him almost puking by taking too big a bite of food, he has other obvious disadvantages, and Kelly CBS video says he was not feeling well (during Ep 2 timeframe).

How does inherent strength of Samburu balance with hydrated, better teamwork Boran?

A couple of other thoughts: here is another take on the Kelly situation. We have the spoiler about the interview to be aired Nov. 2. What if that is because she is a "star" in Ep 4? The off-air clips emphasize that she is not an athlete, and that she is very determined to make it to merger. What if Kelly pulls off a great physical feat that makes a big difference for Boran to win either IC or RC? That would also fit in with a vulnerable Boran making attempt to stay in the tribe - it could help her standing as a challenge asset.

As far as the Boran being more "emotionally united" than the Samburu - I agree. Boran may have some trust and vulnerability issues individually, but may have even more drive to win IC because of that - and as a team they have more fun and pull together. Samburu has all kinds of issues around teamwork and motivation, as well as leadership. We saw hints of these things already during the boulder roll.

LAST EDITED ON 10-28-01 AT 10:54 AM (EST)

A couple of other thoughts: here is another take on the Kelly situation. We have the spoiler about the interview to be aired Nov. 2. What if that is because she is a "star" in Ep 4? The off-air clips emphasize that she is not an athlete, and that she is very determined to make it to merger. What if Kelly pulls off a great physical feat that makes a big difference for Boran to win either IC or RC? That would also fit in with a vulnerable Boran making attempt to stay in the tribe - it could help her standing as a challenge asset.

That's a very valid observation dangerkitty. I was just thinking, perhaps that is right. Looking at the above challenge, a varsity cheerleader would be something every tribe would wish they had right now. =) Her agility could prove very useful in the climbing net-like challenge. As we have seen in the past, 22 year olds are always good at challenges involving climbing and nets, and ropes, etc. as seen when Colleen won the barbecue for herself and Jenna and when Amber came VERY close to beating Colby last season for the horse riding and stuff.

Edited to say:

I hope you are right dangerkitty! Kelly seems totally different than people originally thought of her at first. Combined with what I put above, and what you think about it, and with the fact we I don't think EVER saw Kelly last episode, I think she is probably safe, also to the merge I hope. Kelly seems really cool, I hope she goes far! =)

DK--
I have been thinking about the interview spoiler and haven't gotten around to posting my thoughts so I'll add them in support of your comment here.

>>here is another take on the Kelly situation. We have the spoiler about the interview to be aired Nov. 2. What if that is because she is a "star" in Ep 4?

I have been hoping this might be the case--either the star or dodging the bullet in a big way.

My feeling is, why tape an interview by a third party about Kelly and air it the day after her boot? Clearly the interviewee will talk about Kelly's positive attributes and how she can do anything she sets her mind to, yada yada yada--all of which looks pretty lame when she has just been booted.

The only reason for having such an interview is a "local girl makes good and stays in the game angle." For the boot they would interview Kelly herself. Ep. 4 may indeed be her moment of glory.

Don't think it won't happen just because it hasn't happened yet

As the last two IC's have been non-physical, it is about time for a physical one. The question is, can the advantages of adequate hydration and tribal unity overcome the MamaKim effect? We've seen her struggle during every physical challenge. I fear a poor showing that results in a IC loss could be the last we see of Mama.

After seeing the previews, I was somewhat surprised that there would be two physical challenges in the same episode. I was convinced that with the heat and dehydration factor, MB would alternate challenges; one physical, one not, as has been the pattern in E2 and E3.

Regarding the vidcaps...I noticed that in four seperate caps Lindsey is wearing the same clothes. First, in the Linda "Thank YOU!" clip, she has on a yellow top with white shorts. Note also that all the tribe members have their buffs wrapped around their heads in full competition dress as mentioned by Linda at the last TC. This scene is either before leaving for the challenge or upon return to the boma afterward. We also see the same outfit in the clip of Lindsey and KimP running. The last two caps are a bit more nebulous. There is a shot of Lindsey at the end of the website preview where she looks to be straining to hold up a large, colored section of something. In this clip we only see her from the chest up but it appears to be the same yellow top. Lastly, in the cap of Frank with the large pole on his shoulder, Lindsey is seen in front of him, to the right, wearing what looks to be the same yellow top.

If this is indeed the same outfit and all four clips are from the same time period or same day, what conclusions can we draw?

Well, when I first saw the preview, I thought the Lindsey/KimP running shot was from the same challenge as the cargo net shot. Two things changed my mind. First, Lindsey's outfit. Second, I saw a cap of Ethan running also but he's wearing gloves. So, as IceCat speculated, there is additional evidence that both challenges are physical - perhaps an obstacle course that contains cargo netting and racing to move/build a structre. As for the time frame of the Thank YOU shot, my guess is that this is after Samburu has lost the challenge, tensions are running a little high, and perhaps Lindsey says something like, "Doc would have been a big asset in that challenge," or "We keep losing challenges. It's like we're cursed," or even "We need to be unified and work as a team." Because if they look that pathetic before a challenge, they are in worse shape than we thought.

Keep in mind too, we've been told there will be a lot more physical challenges in SIII than in SI or SII making the move to boot Carl all the more dangerous. We all know too well what it did for Ogakore when the booted Kel.

LAST EDITED ON 10-28-01 AT 12:46 PM (EST)

One "physical factor" that will become even more apparent, now that Carl is gone, is the fact that the Samburu need to keep Frank around.

The Samburu do not have 100 gals of fresh water. They need to carry all their water. Frank will now become the waterboy and must "gladly" do it to stay alive. Silas as the other strong male will probably help him and at the same time realize that it is hard work that he does not want to do by himself (without Frank).

It also appears that their will be at least one and maybe two physical challenges this week. The Samburu will again be reminded of Frank's value. Even if the Samburu don't care about losing immunity, they do need food and water, so they need Frank to continue to help them win reward, at least until the merge. .

So, to summarize:

Frank is now the waterboy. The Gen-xers don't want to work that hard. They'll keep Frank around if he does their bidding for them.

Silas doesn't want to be the last strong male and have to carry all the physical burden. Silas will lobby to keep Frank around.

Frank is shown in the challenge vidcaps carrying an end of a log. The Samburu need him for the physical challenges, not for immunity but for food and water in Reward Challenges.

Roger and Richard were kept around because they could provide food. Frank will be kept around because his strength can help to provide food and water.

Keith was kept around because he was universally disliked going into the final two. Frank seems to fit the same profile.

Frank is safe in EP4 and beyond...

Krautboy

In Survivor Insider, one of the Samburus said that they're keeping Frank so they could win 2 more IC's. If whoever said that meant it literally, then that would make Frank safe for one TC unless that TC was after the last IC.

Excellent job on the vidcaps, Ice, and great theory here, Krautboy! It does make sense - as disliked as Frank is, they need his strength so Silas isn't doing all the physical labor himself. It needs to be divided evenly so that neither man is totally depleted of stregth - they can't wear out before a physical challenge.

My thoughts - Boran is going into the challenges fully hydrated and ready to compete. Samburu loses IC and the GXA vote off Linda - she's annoying and has zero physical strength.

****************************************

HI, SILAS!!!

Been lurking for a while and have finally decided to jump in. In the picture of Linda "thanking" the other tribe members, all members are wearing their buffs on their heads. I've only see them do this as a group when they're at a challenge. Given that everyone looks pissed and that Linda appears to be throwing some attitude, I'd guess that Samburu has just lost a challenge. Maybe Lindsey is taking credit for something irrelevant, i.e. not screwing up herself even thougt the team lost?

Connecting the physical strength angle with a point that KrautBoy made in the Vidcaps thread:

Carrying the house challenge: As Krautboy notes, Boran has 4 strong men, Samburu only three men (and one of them is Brandon...). So Lindsey has to be in to do the heavy lifting. For the Log challenge, we had sound while Samburu decided who should sit out. Linda was speaking up that she had the least upper body strength "It's me, it's me" so she sat out. SOOOOOO, maybe this hooks us into the Linda "Thaaaaank yoooou" scene to Lindsey - Samburu loses and they are discussing the issue of Carl being gone has weakened them and cost them the challenge. Lindsey pipes up that she took the heavy work that others (read:Linda) couldn't. Linda responds with the sarcastic "Thaaank yooou" - ie, thanks Lindsey, but we lost anyway because YOU guys voted out Carl.

dangerkitty
Goddess of Words

>A series of factors have come
>into play to strongly increase
>the chances of a Boran
>win in EP4:

Actually, I'm inclined to think that Samburu enjoys a physical advantage, not Boran. Here's why:

>Boran win have an incredible advantage
>of going into the challenge
>fully hydrated. The large
>supply of fresh water will
>allow the Boran to remain
>hydrated and far better prepared
>to compete in physical challenges.
>
Samburu may have to work for their water, but they're not about to go into any challenge in a dehydrated state. They know when the challenges take place, and they'll be prepared. As a result, the only advantage Boran enjoys here is that their water doesn't taste like sh*t.

>Boran recently voted off two of
>physically weaker members of the
>team and Samburu just voted
>one of its physically stronger
>members.
>
Boran may have voted out two weak players, but they've still got some major physical liabilities left! Kim and Kelly are both clearly weak, and Tom's no spring chicken. As for Samburu voting out "one of its physically stronger members" I think Carl's value has been vastly overexaggerated. He may have run some marathons in his time, but he showed up in Africa overweight and out of shape - in the boulder challenge it was Lindsey, Silas and Frank who did the work while Carl trailed behind. Carl may be more valuable than Linda, but he's no great loss, and he's certainly not comparable to Kel from S2.

>Samburu are not as emotionally united
>as the Boran are.

Samburu hasn't been 'emotionally united' since day 1, yet they managed to steal the first 3 challenges. You don't have to like one another to be able to work effectively as a team once the challenge starts.

>If EP4 contains two very physical
>challenges, then Boran has to
>be strongly favored. The
>only advantage that Samburu might
>have is a possibile agility
>advantage over Big Tom on
>the some potential components of
>an obstacle course (eg: the
>balance beam over water)

I'm sorry, I just don't see it. Boran may have more men left, which may give them a brute strength advantage, but Samburu isn't just more agile, they also enjoy a higher level of fitness overall, which ought to favour them in most physical challenges.

I might also add that last week no one here could fathom a double Boran win because Samburu seemed unbeatable. So I'm a little surprised to see such an about face when so little has changed to alter the physical capabilities of each tribe. Suddenly Boran has an advantage because they won one out of three physical challenges??? I just don't see it, especially since Samburu lost the boulder challenge because of poor strategy, not inferior physical prowess.

As a result, I don't think it is at all "very likely" that Samburu is going to lose the IC this week. If anything, I think the fact that this week's challenges appear to be physical makes SAmburu victories more likely.

for
>lack of physical strength and
>for being annoying Linda will
>be voted off in the
>very likely event that Samburu
>loses the IC.

This is the one thing we can agree on! If by chance Samburu loses, then I think Linda will be the one to go...but in the face of a deplorable lack of spoiler material, for the moment I'm leaning towards Boran making the trip to TC

In a hot environment, you have to drink a lot of water. If the water tastes bad, people are not as likely to drink the amount of water that we will keep you properly hydrated. Boran has enough good tasting water that they can use purely for drinking that they can hydrate very well for the challenges.

Both challenges will be intensely physical. Samburu may have the advantage in the obstacle course. Personally, I think that Tom and Brandon cancel each other out in the coordination deficit department but (if there is a big wall on the obstacle course) Big Tom will be the guy who helps toss the others over the wall (think 'Mighty Colby' at the 'Jerri Tossing' competition).

When it comes to the moving the house/logs competition, their biggest upper body strength seems to be Frank who is moving the 'logs'. If four people are required on the 'house' part of the move, Brandon can't sit out. Linda will sit out because she has the least upper body strength of the people who can sit out.

Lindsey seems to be sucking a lot of air and gritting her teath doing the heavy lifting. If there is another weak link on that load, Lindsey is going to have even more load transferred to her.

If the house/log move is IC, Boran will win because of upper body strength.

If the obstacle course is IC and the obstacle course has a long distance running component to it, Boran will win because of better hydration.

If the obstacle course is IC and the obstacle course has no real long distance running associated with it, I give a slight nod to Samburu because they are either younger or more agile.

We must watch for the following in the next series of vidcaps:

1) evidence of upper body strength issues in the house/log move IC.

2) evidence of how far do people have to run in the obstacle course.

3) evidence of obstacle course components that favor agility over strength.

We're talking a lot about physical capabilities. Let's compare the teams, person by person on physical ability.

Silas / Clarence
Both are large, strong guys. Body builders tend to lack speed and flexibility. However, Clarence is a basketball coach, and basketball requires speed and agility.
Edge - Boran

Frank / Ethan
Frank is a big strong guy. Ethan is smaller, but probably faster and more fit.
Edge - Depends on type of challenge. Samburu for lifting, Boran for obstacle course.

Brandon / Lex
We have really little information about Brandon's physical capabilities, but the consensus is that he's not particularly strong. Lex isn't a major athlete, but he seems to do all right.
Edge - Boran

Lindsey / Kelly
Lindsey says she's strong. Kelly was a varsity cheerleader? Don't know too much about these two.
Edge - Samburu?

Young Kim / Mama Kim
We've seen Kim doing push ups. Mama Kim fell on the platform challenge.
Edge - Samburu

Teresa or Linda / Tom
Here's a tough one. Tom is clearly stronger than either of the two women, but his endurance is lacking (puking after the ball rolling), and his balance and agility would be questionable.
Edge - Boran?

It's tough to call who would win the physical challenges. If you throw in the better hydration of the Boran, that's a bonus to them. However, they've had a few nights of bad sleep due to lion's roaring and such, so that's a bonus to Samburu.