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Original Message
"Love/Loathe List BB17 #10"
Posted by Aruba on 08-31-15 at 07:26 PM
What’s this nonsense in the past couple seasons stopping the morph POV comp when the HG cannot beat the previous best time??? Bring back the old format...I always got a kick when they revealed the worst effort in “hourglass” time.

VANESSA – Easy #1. Kudos for proactively taking matters in her own hands at the POV and not leaving anything to chance. And she followed it up with a solid HOH win! But hey, if I had a picture of a girlfriend like that waiting for me in the HOH room, I’d be puking up bile from my gut before I even consider dropping. I also have her #1 for understanding where she stands with the Austwins and forming a better alliance (with Johnny & Steve) that should all but assure her the season win if they make F3.

I have to agree with Michel’s comment from last week and note a drop off at this point for this week.

JOHNNY – Way to tough it out in the HOH comp to earn his way back into the House. Great stuff! Very smart not to publically accept Vanessa’s deal and even smarter to tell her in confidence he bowed out early. After a tough stretch watching his closest comrades walk out the door the past few weeks, we see the reemergence of a more entertaining Johnny Mac in the DR. Welcome back! But did anyone get the official tally on how many times he declared himself “safe” for this week? Historically speaking, that usually ends up not so well.

AUSTIN – Still never nominated. I’m not sure, but has he even been a Have-Not this season? If not, that’s quite noteworthy. A big sigh of relief with Vanessa winning HOH. Funny he thought Johnny Mac was referring to the Austwins hearing John say he had business to do, when Johnny specifically stated to Julie if he came back into the House and won HOH he would have targeted Meg/James.

JAMES – Nice piece with his friends back at home. His buddy was dead-on saying he needs to align with someone who can win comps instead of pathetically inept Meg. His female friend was even more dead-on that he’ll have zero chance with Meg after the season. It’s a good thing he decided not to bring up the “deal” with Vanessa; Vanessa would have check raised and reminded him of HIS "deal” with Shelli. It’s also a good thing Texas is nowhere near Vegas otherwise Vanessa’s mom might need a restraining order.

JULIA – After a somewhat commendable execution in the POV, a putrid effort for HOH. Still in good position thanks to Lady Luck. I’m not sure what will be more disheartening for her—having to own up that she was carried this season, or potentially having Sasquatch as a future brother-in-law.

STEVE – Remarkable he’s advanced this deep into the game by doing very little right. Watching him continue to pathetically belly-crawl to Vanessa has been disturbing to watch. I guess for Vanessa it’s like housebreaking a pet. Sure you get upset when they crap on the floor, but you give them passes because they’re immature puppies. Even if a F3 comes to fruition with Vanessa and Johnny, the best he can realistically hope for is 50K.

LIZ – I’m dropping her for agreeing to be Austin’s steady after the show. I’m still not totally sold on that, but she appeared to be on board. UGH! Whether it’s with her sister or her BF, she’s a certain nominee for DE Thursday should the Austwins not win the next HOH. And BTW, during the recap on last night’s episode, it was stated word-for-word it was LIZ who (and I quote) “threw Steve under the bus.” So any spin to discredit Johnny Mac in regards to Steve has little merit.

MEG – If you thought your “Grandma” status would provide you a layer of protection in the game—think again. Most of these hypocritical pieces of trash would give up their first born for a chance to be BB champion. Although she did provide the most hysterical moment of the week when wailing in the DR that her “game” is unfolding?? ROFLMAO! Now if she was crying because Vanessa punctured her floatation device, then I could acknowledge the tears.

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"My List"
Posted by michel2 on 08-31-15 at 08:46 PM
Yes, there is a big drop-off after the top player of this season. The funny thing is that my top player didn't change while you had to raise yours from number 5!


1- Vanessa: Winning HoH would not have been good if she hadn't been able to solidify a new alliance to counter the Austwins down the road. One might say that she could even have let Jmac win HoH to speed up the move against the Austwins but I like the idea of removing the other pair first. BTW, you were wrong to believe that Jmac and Steve would never trust Vanessa again! She's become their main ally.

7th to Last - John: He's finally realized that his game can only improve by teaming up with Vanessa. It took him a quick trip out of the house to come to his senses. Had he been smarter he may have been able to keep Becky in the house and havve her in that alliance. Alas, he had to say out loud that he had unfinished business, practically throwing down the gauntlet at the Austwins. Keeping your agenda secret and confusing your rivals are keys to the game.

6th to last - Austin: The big guy is playing a great game... because he is playing Vanessa's game! His alarm signal should have been screeching when he heard the poker player say that she wanted to keep Jmac and Steve safe and that she was going after his side alliance of James and Meg. Instead, he agreed that they had to go! He may still win this game but, if not, he seems certain to get what he really wanted, Liz.

5th to Last - Liz: Like her new boyfriend, she is mostly blind to Vanessa's game, even encouraging the move against James and Meg. That means she will likely be nominated during the DE if her side doesn't win HoH. BTW, Aruba, you should know by now that recaps are often BS. The recappers rewrite the script to suit the stories of the fan favorites like Jmac and screw the unlikable ones like Liz. We BOTH heard Jmac say that Steve was the first to mention going after Vanessa. We BOTH heard Liz retract her original statement to say that it was Jmac that had been after Vanessa all along.

4th to Last - Julia: Her status as end game goat is solidifying and I'm pretty sure that Vanessa will find a way to get her there. At least, she can be funny at times.

3rd to Last - Steve: Like Jmac, it took him a lot of time to understand his true position in the game but we must admit that Vanessa was much too confusing to follow for this simpleton. Had he gone to Vanessa and told her about the Austwins plan he would have saved himself many headaches but he's finally in the best place possible to make the F3.

2nd to Last - James: So, we have a hometown segment that features his friends and his cat but ignores his daughter? I'm starting to believe that the accusations of deadbeat dad are accurate. Puts his pranks in a new light: He isn't being funny, he is simply that immature. As for his game, he needs to win veto AND the next HoH, AND the veto after the following HoH, and another HoH, etc...


Last - Meg: She made the exact same mistake that Steve made last week, repeating over and over again that she didn't want to be on the block with James. Vanessa saw right through that. It would have been so easy to use all the ammunition she had on the Austwins. At least, she wasn't a snitch. She'll be able to take that to the jury house where she will certainly go either this week or next.

Booted - Shelli, Jackie and Becky: Finally, that twist is over. After weeks of anxiety, it must be hard to swallow to be beaten by someone who didn't spend a minute in the jury house.


"RE: My List"
Posted by Aruba on 09-01-15 at 06:30 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-01-15 AT 06:32 PM (EST)

Sure I have Vanessa #1 this week...coming off back-to-back competition wins has appropriately given her the power in the House to solidify alliances. Whereas others might squander that power, she has taken full advantage of it much to her credit, thus her ranking.

Last week she was at the mercy of the Austwins who were in power (thanks to THEIR competition wins.) Thus her appropriate ranking last week.

AHHH yes, a difference one week (and competition wins) could make.

Johnny very much had his “senses” pretty much nailing who Vanessa was weeks ago when she could not be trusted and was the only HG with the sense to sniff out her “masterful CRYING game” even before Zingbot made that fact public knowledge. Realizing she’ll be the fourth wheel in the Austwins alliance, she needs Johnny (and Steve) as much as they need her for the remainder of the season to prevent the Austwins from running away with the game.

Of course Austin agreed to what Vanessa wanted this week—DUH, she’s HOH. But the week prior Vanessa wanted to protect Johnny and have James/Meg put up while Austin was HOH. Guess what...Steve and Johnny went up despite what Vanessa wanted. And why did that happen? DUH, Austin was HOH. And there you have it.

Johnny Mac said if he won HOH he would target Meg (and James,) not the Austwins. Oh, I guess you’ll consider THAT “BS” as well because it does not support your analysis. You conveniently pick and choose what spoken words to believe and what to discredit as “BS” based on who you like more and how it suits YOUR script. Just like using your spin to reject what we ALL heard about Liz “throwing Steve under the bus.”

There’s nothing Meg or James could have said or done with Vanessa to have her put up anyone else on the block. It’s not so much about any Meg “mistake” during her 75 second discussion with Vanessa...it’s more her overall “mistake” during the first 75 days in the season that has her at risk of being evicted. Even so, the only possible way Meg walks out the door is if James wins POV. Any other scenario, James is gonzo and Grandma continues to float.

As for the James daughter situation, I would prefer not to spar on this sensitive topic, but I will say this...custody battles usually don’t end up all that well.

I would think the daughter’s mother would ALSO have to sign a release (as well as James) to feature his daughter on the home segment. If mommy refuses, no daughter is featured. I guess what I’m saying is without knowing all the facts, I’d be hesitant to feed into any “deadbeat dad’ accusations.

And even if we knew the “facts,” we all know there’s three sides to any custody battle…his side, her side, and the truth.

"RE: My List"
Posted by michel2 on 09-01-15 at 07:02 PM
Tell me; is this game about winning HoH or about winning the jury vote? I ask because you seem confused. I don't rate my players according to who wins stupid little competitions but according to who plays the best game. Maybe that's why my lists are more consistent.

Anyway, Steve and JMac went up BECAUSE Vanessa managed to convince Austin NOT TO PUT HER UP. It was after she got her way that she started to get through their thick skulls and she was able to make them realize they should work together. Vanessa couldn't use the veto to save Jmac because it would have been too obvious but she laid the groundwork for his return which, considering the competition, was a very strong possiblity.

I know JMac said he was targeting James and Meg but didn't you hear what Austin said? He was absolutely convinced that Jmac's unfinished business was about going after him. It really doesn't matter who Jmac is going to target if he gets HoH (he may never win it anyway!) what matters is the perception he gave to his opponents. Those are the people that will come after him.

Meg and Vanessa could have told Vanessa about their alliance with the Austwins and how Austin wanted to use them to get Vanessa.

In custody battles, the truth is usually part of what he says and part of what she says. Anyway, James has talked more about his cat than his daughter.

"RE: My List"
Posted by Aruba on 09-01-15 at 08:02 PM
>Tell me; is this game about
>winning HoH or about winning
>the jury vote? I
>ask because you seem confused.
> I don't rate my
>players according to who wins
>stupid little competitions but according
>to who plays the best
>game. Maybe that's why
>my lists are more consistent.

If I seemed confused allow me to put your mind to rest...I'm clear enough to know NOT to put the cart before the horse. When in the F2 it's about winning the jury vote...BUT YOU NEED TO GET THERE FIRST. With very, very, VERY rare exception you get to the F2 by winning those so-called "stupid little competitions."

>Anyway, Steve and JMac went up
>BECAUSE Vanessa managed to convince
>Austin NOT TO PUT HER
>UP. It was after
>she got her way that
>she started to get through
>their thick skulls and she
>was able to make them
>realize they should work together.
> Vanessa couldn't use the
>veto to save Jmac because
>it would have been too
>obvious but she laid the
>groundwork for his return which,
>considering the competition, was a
>very strong possiblity.

I don't know what spun more...all the HGs in the last HOH comp or that statement. LMAO The reason the Austwins are not putting Vanessa on the block is because she's the most appetizing meat shield in the House; not because of your fanfiction spin that Vanessa "convinced" them not to put her up.
Vanessa laid the groundwork for Johnny's return??!!! You are WAAAAY too much!!

>I know JMac said he was
>targeting James and Meg but
>didn't you hear what Austin
>said? He was absolutely
>convinced that Jmac's unfinished business
>was about going after him.
> It really doesn't matter
>who Jmac is going to
>target if he gets HoH
>(he may never win it
>anyway!) what matters is the
>perception he gave to his
>opponents. Those are the
>people that will come after
>him.

Oh, OK...shame on Johnny Mac for not being a mind-reader and being able to know exactly what Austin and the other HGs might perceive. Kingfish is right... you expect all these players to bring a crystal ball into the House as a luxury item.


>Meg and Vanessa could have told
>Vanessa about their alliance with
>the Austwins and how Austin
>wanted to use them to
>get Vanessa.

Like Vanessa doesn't already know that? She KNEW she needed to go out and win that POV comp because she was a renom target and to her credit that's exactly what she did. And do you really believe if they told her she would have put up two of the Austwins or Johhny/Steve instead??? PLEASE!

>In custody battles, the truth is
>usually part of what he
>says and part of what
>she says. Anyway, James
>has talked more about his
>cat than his daughter.

Quite honestly I haven't heard him talk much about either. If the cat and the daughter have no relevance to his game I'm guessing we won't hear much about it in the episodes. Chicken George had a family and played in two seasons, yet I do not recall talk about his wife and kids. Let's accuse him of being an undevoted husband and deadbeat dad.

"RE: My List"
Posted by michel2 on 09-01-15 at 08:41 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-01-15 AT 08:43 PM (EST)

>"When in the F2 it's about
>winning the jury vote..."

Sorry but the game is won by the actions of the players starting on day 1. If you wait for the F2 then you will not convince anyone.

>"With very, very, VERY rare
>exception you get to the F2
>by winning those so-called
>"stupid little competitions.""

I'm glad that you brought this up again because it enables me to show you this:

According to many, many fans, Sandra is the greatest winner ever because she did it twice. And how may comps did she win?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

>"The reason the Austwins are not
>putting Vanessa on the block is
>because she's the most appetizing
>meat shield in the House; not
>because of your fanfiction spin
>that Vanessa "convinced" them
>not to put her up."

It was clearly shown in the live feeds that Austin AND Liz had made up their minds and that it would be Jmac vs Vanessa on the block. Julia, realizing how dumb that was, went to get Vanessa who was downstairs and told her that she needed to talk to Austin. Vanessa spent a lot of time talking to Austin and when that talk was over Austin had decided to switch his nominations. Clearly, Vanessa convinced him.


>"Vanessa laid the groundwork
>for Johnny's return??!! You are
>WAAAAY too much!!"

In the context of that whole paragraph, it is clear I meant that she laid the groundwork for their alliance IN CASE he returned. We saw in the latest episode that, 5 hours before eviction, Vanessa told JMac that she would want to work with him if he came back. For someone that knew he was a goner, that was a great lifeline, especially considering how meny returnees have been like boomerangs.

>"...shame on Johnny Mac for not
>being a mind-reader and being
>able to know exactly what Austin
>and the other HGs might perceive"

Lame response. It is the players duty to know how their words will be perceived. Saying "I have unfinished business" is a direct threat. That is an extremely dumb thing to do.

>"Like Vanessa doesn't
>already know that?"

She certainly doesn't know that they had a formal 5 person alliance, that it even had a lame name.

James stole Liz's hat because it reminded him of his cat. If he is so homesick, you'd think he'd mention his 5 year old daughter. As for Chicken George, you had to go a long way back!!! Pretty sure his children were old enough to take care of themselves (if he had any that is. I barely remember him, let alone his family!)

"RE: My List"
Posted by Aruba on 09-02-15 at 12:49 PM
Oh Michel, what would my Reality TV enthusiasm be without you…

>Sorry but the game is won
>by the actions of the
>players starting on day 1.
> If you wait for
>the F2 then you will
>not convince anyone.

Not all the time. Andy (BB15 winner) was a virtual “ghost” (as confirmed by Zingbot) for the first two-third’s of the season before he kicked it in gear at the end.
Natalie (S29 winner) did very little noteworthy at the beginning of the season before earning her win at the end.
Same with Jun winner of BB4…and the list goes on.
Hayden specifically noted his competition wins to the Jury. Even the HOH he won on “Day One.”
Rachel did the same when addressing the Jury in BB13. OH, she also won HOH on “Day One.”
HMMM, maybe there IS something to your claim of winning the Jury over on “Day One.”


>I'm glad that you brought this
>up again because it enables
>me to show you this:
>
>
>

Bringing that up it enables ME to show you THIS

>According to many, many fans, Sandra
>is the greatest winner ever
>because she did it twice.
> And how may comps
>did she win?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


How bizarre you claim “many, many fans” regard Sandra as so great when the voting results proved many, many, MORE acknowledged Hantz better than Sandra in their season…an acknowledgement not shared by the bitter betty, sore-losing disgruntled Jury.
In any event, for every champion who did not win a comp, I can list a dozen or more who DID win competitions en route to their victories.
In the first half of a Survivor season tribe challenges are essential to avoid TCs and advance in the game. Whereas Sandra did not win individual challenges allowing her after the merge to get carried to the end by being appropriately regarded as a non-threat, to get to the merge the tribes she was fortunate to be part of performed very well in challenges.


>It was clearly shown in the
>live feeds that Austin AND
>Liz had made up their
>minds and that it would
>be Jmac vs Vanessa on
>the block.

Sakes Alive! Are you now going to replace your edit and conspiracy cards with “Live Feed” cards??? What exactly are these Live Feeds? Is this something you subscribe to so you can watch these Bozos 24/7? Or is it some written transcript posted by Production or fans?
If it’s the former than I must admit I am insanely jealous you would have enough disposable income to waste watching these idiots more than three hours a week.
If it’s the latter, then you REALLY don’t have a leg to stand on, because Production (as you stated numerous times) is “BS,” and fans/viewers will incorporate their own slant or bias in an written transcript…much like posters on these Boards.


>In the context of that whole
>paragraph, it is clear I
>meant that she laid the
>groundwork for their alliance IN
>CASE he returned.

Johnny winning his way back into the game had nothing to do with Vanessa’s “groundwork.” Vanessa is far from the only one. Pretty much every HG layed “groundwork” for a returning juror. We heard James repeatedly lay “groundwork” for a Jackie return. Liz/Julia were looking forward to a Shelli return who would most certainly have targeted James. It was just fortunate for Vanessa that Johnny was the one who won his way back in…reinforcing what Kingfish so accurately noted in his list citing Vanessa’s good fortune thus far.

>Lame response. It is the players
>duty to know how their
>words will be perceived.
>Saying "I have unfinished business"
>is a direct threat.
>That is an extremely dumb
>thing to do.

It’s even more lame to criticize a player for not having the foresight to mind-read another HG’s paranoia. And Austin’s reaction to Johnny’s statement was just that—paranoia. Furthermore, I believe Johnny’s intent was not to throw any gauntlet but to explain why he would not accept Vanessa’s deal and thwart any suspicion that they are working together. So far it appears mission accomplished. Well done, Johnny Mac!

>She certainly doesn't know that they
>had a formal 5 person
>alliance, that it even had
>a lame name.


As you stated yourself, prior to this week no alliance has been secret or safe this season. And the lame alliance formed to propose a Vanessa backdoor was no exception. Bottom line: Vanessa would have been told nothing she didn’t already know.

>James stole Liz's hat because it
>reminded him of his cat.
> If he is so
>homesick, you'd think he'd mention
>his 5 year old daughter.
> As for Chicken George,
>you had to go a
>long way back!!! Pretty
>sure his children were old
>enough to take care of
>themselves (if he had any
>that is. I barely
>remember him, let alone his
>family!)

So because Liz brought a cat hat into the House instead of a baby rattle or pacifier, let’s feed the accusation of a “deadbeat dad.” *snort*
I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised due to some Judge’s decision he sadly gets to see his cat a lot more than his own daughter. Of course I’m probably wasting my time here because I say this to someone who believes the Jury is ALWAYS right…so I would suspect you believe a Judge is always right as well.
The fact you’re not sure if George had any kids or family proves my point all the more. George appeared in Season 1 and All-Stars. Will (whose butt you blow enough sunshine up to melt the arctic ice shield) appeared in Season 2 and All-Stars. Pretty similar timeframes. And it was your boy Will who said this about George (and I quote) “He’s a bad ass player!”

"RE: My List"
Posted by michel2 on 09-02-15 at 04:38 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-02-15 AT 06:08 PM (EST)

Your Hantz is distorting the margins while your opinions are distoring logic! On the subject of day one, you mostly made my point but I will add that we heard many winners claim that they started playing on day 1.

Just taking Natalie's case, she started making friends on day one and it was her social game that won her the million. Of course, you would be the one to say that a good social game is "nothing noteworthy"!!! It's actually the most noteworthy thing in these game.

You think you can impress me with a three time LOSER!!! Posters who like big moves idolized Hantz. Smart analysts realized he didn't even know how the game worked. That means there are more imbeciles watching these shows than intelligent people but it's like that in the real world also.


I don't listen to the live feeds but we are lucky enough to have Jims and Tribephyl in the spoiler thread to post comments on what they saw. The Sucks recaps give a good picture of what is going on when SeeBS turns off its camera.

Before Johnny was voted out, he was targeting Vanessa. After he returned, he was following her lead. You should acknowledge that she deserves at least half the credit. Personally, I say she deserves practically all of it because Jmac refused her offers many times. A less shrewd player would have given up on him and rejoiced as he went out the door. Sort of like your idol, Hantz...

The doubts about James' maturity come from observing him directly. It's that obvious immaturity and the fact that we never heard about his daughter that lead to questions about his implications in her life. The fact that his facebook page has dozens of pictures of his friends and his cat but only one recent picture of the daughter adds to the doubts.

I'm not sure if George has a family because I never watched season 1 and he left All-Stars before I knew, or cared about, who he was.

"RE: My List"
Posted by kingfish on 09-02-15 at 04:51 PM
My two cents:

The fact that a house guest may not be mentioning his child/children could be to shield them from Internet scrutiny and comment. I would.

It does come as a surprise that he does have off-spring, I thought he was a single guy and assumed he hadn't ever been married. Not a assumption I can defend, but that's what I thought.

But Chicken George's (I assume that's the George mentioned here?) family was mentioned in at least one of his seasons.

"RE: My List"
Posted by michel2 on 09-02-15 at 06:13 PM
>My two cents:
>
>The fact that a house guest
>may not be mentioning his
>child/children could be to shield
>them from Internet scrutiny and
>comment. I would.

It's a possibility but saying that he misses his daughter wouldn't subject her to more scrutiny. It was actually a picture of his daughter with a poster saying that she misses him that started the whole thing so there doesn't seem to be any wishes for privacy on that end.


>But Chicken George's (I assume that's
>the George mentioned here?) family
>was mentioned in at least
>one of his seasons.

Yes it was CG. Thank you for the clarification.

"RE: My List"
Posted by Aruba on 09-02-15 at 07:41 PM
AWWWW Michel...you know I still luv ya Man!!!

"My opinions distort logic." TOOOO Funny!

Actually my intent was never to "impress" you by posting Hantz...it was to provoke you. HaHa. Winning the Fan Fav even over the sole survivor in HvV is not an "opinion," it's the actual voting result. And with the world population over 7 billion if over 3.5 billion are "imbeciles" (as you suggest) I suppose logic has become a rare commodity indeed.

Of course I acknowledge a social game has its place in Realty TV...probably in Big Brother more than any other Reality program. Natalie's social game in S29 was primarily focused around Jeremy very early on. It was until later in the game did she branch out and become more of the social butterfly you covet so dearly.

Sorry, but when you said it was "clear" based on "live feeds" I thought you listened and watched them yourself. I didn't realize you were getting your information secondhand by hearsay.

I'm not going to squabble over an exact percentage here, but yes, Vanessa deserves a good portion of the credit for the side alliance.

You'll never get an debate from me about James maturity level. Kingfish was surprised he had a kid; but not as surprised as I was when I discovered he is over 30. We all can agree he acts more like 13.

If Kingfish says Chicken George's family was mentioned then I must have missed it. It was probably in Season 1. He actually went pretty deep into the game during All-Stars (I'm guessing F5 or F6) so there would have been ample time to feature his family but I honestly do not recall any mention that season.

My last comment on the exposure of James daughter discussion...with James status as "single" we have to presume joint custody of the child so there's too much here we don't know, will never know, nor would most viewers really care.

"RE: My List"
Posted by michel2 on 09-02-15 at 07:58 PM
Your opinion is that a 3 time loser is better than a 2 time winner so that is extremely distorted. Your opinion that you can win the game without starting to play on day 1 is also aberrant.

The imbeciles I was talking about are those that watch this show. As far as I know, BB's ratings are much less than 7 billions!!! Just look at the majority of twitter comments that SeeBS posts at the bottom of the screen in each episode to realize the level of imbecility!

As for Natalie, I didn't realize you were talking about S29 Natalie. Your picture of Hantz had made me think of Natalie White who had a terrific social game. Twinnie Natalie also managed to make many early friends. She was part of the majority alliance right from day 1 so that is also extremely noteworthy.

Yes, I read what the people watching those Live Feeds write. I trust the posters here to report with a fair level of accuracy. Sucks is another matter but the ones that give their opinions instead of simply doing straight reporting are generally shot down immediately by the gallery.

As for Chicken George he was booted 5th in All-Stars. I really never got to know him except that he was a fat older guy. I doubt that his kids were five...

"RE: My List"
Posted by Aruba on 09-03-15 at 06:40 PM
I’m still not getting this whole “opinion” baloney you’re throwing my way. Providing historical facts in response to what YOU initiated by saying “many, many FANS” regard Sandra the best ever has nothing to do with my personal opinion and everything to do with what many, many MORE FANS thought in the season Hantz and Sandra both appeared.

You’re the one who initially referenced the FAN base. And according to the FAN base, Hantz was a two-time winner...including the season with Sandra. I respect the fact you don’t like that outcome because it does not support your analysis. Now referring to those who do not agree with you as “imbeciles” is a pristine example of one’s opinion. You even went so far to say “it’s like that in the real WORLD also” which is the reason why I referenced the WORLD’s population in my reply. Once again, it has nothing to do with MY opinion.

But if you would like my opinion, here it is...I think Russell Hantz is one of the more vile individuals ever casted for a Reality Show. Probably the only one more vile was Evil D!ck in BB. But unlike some I won’t allow that to affect my analysis when acknowledging who proactively owned their season(s).

So you will trust the reports of posters on Live Feeds most of whom you probably do not know, and more than half may even have a chance of being imbeciles. Well I won’t...hence (with all due respect) your “Live Feeds” card carries the same weight for me as your “Edit” card and your “Conspiracy” card.

Chicken George was booted 5th??? I thought for sure he lasted longer so I went back and checked it out. For the record, in All-Stars he was the 10th HG voted out of the BB House that season advancing to the F5.

"RE: My List"
Posted by michel2 on 09-03-15 at 07:43 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-03-15 AT 07:49 PM (EST)


The historical facts are that Sandra won twice wthout winning any individual challenge while Hantz lost 3 times. It is also a fact that, when listing winners (Not Hantzs: WINNERS) many fans rate Sandra number 1 because she won twice. That has nothing to do with the Bitter-Betty-fans that wanted to see Hantz win! Understand now?

As for the imbeciles in the world, we only have to listen to the world news to know that there are plenty of imbeciles out there. 3.5 billion may not be far off the mark anyway! I should have stuck to my guns...

I have known Jims and Tribephyl for many years. I think you also know them. They have reported on the Live Feeds during the season. I have also known Sucks posters for years and I have a feel about the fantards and the trusted reporters. James Barber, for one, has done great work over the years. For a long time, he used to do transcripts of all the Survivor secret scenes. For someone living in Canada and unable to watch those scenes on CBS, I have grown to appreciate his work.

I admit I was wrong about Chicken George; I read the list upside down. It still doesn't change the fact that I don't remember him or care for him!! Anyway, he did talk about his family according to Kingfish.

Talking about family, didn't you find it funny that James was suddenly saying that he was playing for his daughter? The timing makes me think that SeeBS read all the tweets saying that James was a deadbeat dad and the DR suggested he should talk about her instead of his cat!!!!! You'll scoff it off as another conspiracy but scepticism is a healthy attitude.

"RE: My List"
Posted by Aruba on 09-04-15 at 06:57 PM
I have no problem understanding the concept of how a disgruntled bitter juror will write down the name of a player at FTC because they are casting a vote AGAINST those they are sitting next to.

With that said, let’s not spin away from the fact I was responding to your claim about how the FAN base feels. I acknowledge some viewers are fans of Sandra; but when put to a vote in the one season they BOTH played, MORE fans favored Russell. Again, I’m not asking you to personally like that outcome, but at least “understand” those results. And by declaring those who don’t agree with you imbeciles allows you to gain a better understanding of those results, then so be it.

As far as personally liking Chicken George as an individual, I’d put him in my “take ‘em or leave ‘em” category. But as a player I give him props for proactively advancing to the F5 during the All-Star season. The only HGs who outlasted him were the TWO “obvious pairs.”

My assessments based on what we now know about James situation: First and foremost, yet another example that prohibition could conceivably be a very effective form of birth control. And unless this chick was suffering a nine-month hangover, it’s totally inexcusable that she withheld carrying James child from him all that time. That’s one F’d up situation regardless of how you feel about James and I can understand not wanting to share that experience with millions and millions of viewers especially if you might be voted our earlier in the game.

I’m guessing the reason she finally came around to telling him in the delivery room probably wasn’t to congratulate him on being a new daddy, but to inform him he better lawyer-up and start shelling out some “dough-re-mi” support. In any event, my heart goes out to that poor girl who entered the world with such a messed up circumstance.

Final note: Because a picture of his daughter was displayed, I’m certain any approval or signed releases from both parents were done BEFORE James or any other HG entered the House this season. So no, I don’t think this was a case of a Production scramble whipped up quickly responding to recent public opinion.

"RE: My List"
Posted by michel2 on 09-04-15 at 07:53 PM
Again, my claim about the fan base was about rating winners. I'm not talking about the fan favorite vote held at the end of the season. We've had some pretty sorry outcomes there including Jane in Nicaragua and Rupert in All-Stars. I could care less about the SeeBS polls. When posters analyse the winners' games, many say that Sandra is the best and she never needed to win an individual competition. That's the only thing that counts in our discussion about the way to win.

The jury is always right so I don't see THEM as being the bitter ones. It's the legions of fans that are bitter because they didn't see their favorite win. The game depends on the jury's decision. Really, it's all that matters and they are the only ones that can judge how they feel about the game that was played.

Since you talked about Chicken George, I'd like to remind you of the dumb format of BB 1 that was decided by fan vote. Even now, we have many desperate attention whores mugging for the cameras even if we DON'T vote. Imagine how bad it would be if we decided the winner! If you want to win, you have to figure out how to get rid of players but keep their votes. It's that balancing act that is so fascinating for me so I would NEVER want to see the jury verdict overturned.

"RE: My List"
Posted by Aruba on 09-06-15 at 02:53 PM
I make a big distinction between jurors casting votes FOR a player to win vs. casting votes AGAINST a player to prevent them from winning. You’ll never sell me on your opinion that jurors are always right, and if you truly believe jurors have not been bitter then you must see unicorns when you look out your window while kicking back with an ice cold beer that flows freely from your kitchen faucet.

I was giving props to Chicken George for his play during the All-Stars season, not for BB1.

"RE: My List"
Posted by michel2 on 09-06-15 at 05:06 PM
>I make a big distinction between
>jurors casting votes FOR a
>player to win vs. casting
>votes AGAINST a player to
>prevent them from winning.

YOU make a big distinction but there never was one! There are no rules on how the jurors should vote. It's all about who THEY feel played the best game. The game isn't about winning comps, making "big moves" or finding idols. The game is about surviving all the elimination votes and then getting the plurality of jurors to vote for you. That is all. If you manage to get to the end with players that the jury hates then your game was excellent.

>You’ll
>never sell me on your
>opinion that jurors are always
>right, and if you truly
>believe jurors have not been
>bitter then you must see
>unicorns when you look out
>your window while kicking back
>with an ice cold beer
>that flows freely from your
>kitchen faucet.

Let me say it out straight: Jurors HAVE been bitter. We just have to remember Lex's Mohawk haircut to know that. But it's THEIR RIGHT to be bitter. Lex was bitter BECAUSE Boston Rob made an absolutely terrible game move. It was BRob's own fault so Lex was entirely right to vote against him. By the same token, Kathy felt LAMBER made a terrible game move when she reneged on HER deal to take Lex and Kathy to the F5 so she voted FOR BRob. Both were right to vote the way they did and Lamber got the plurality of votes. She deserved the win.

"RE: My List"
Posted by Aruba on 09-06-15 at 06:09 PM
Voting against a player to prevent them from winning is EXACTLY what happened. At stated in the straw poll on the reunion show, Lil took a million dollar check she would have won and handed it over to Sandra. Sandra did absolutely nothing to encourage Lil’s major blunder.

If a player brings a goat with them to FTC, i.e. what Brian did in Thailand, then I could acknowledge that as playing an excellent game. Sandra did not do that.

Of course people have the right to be bitter sore-losers, but that does not make it an admirable trait. Here’s a question: Would you want to raise your children to be sore-losers or have bitter attitudes? I’ll answer my own question and say NO; so that’s why I will continue to criticize that approach on these Boards and in my real life. Those who don’t feel as strongly as I do...God bless you...to each their own.

"RE: My List"
Posted by michel2 on 09-07-15 at 03:11 PM
I'll answer your question with another: Would you want your child to accept being slapped in the face and do nothing about it?

When you make an alliance or a deal in these games there is always one condition: "If you screw me, I will screw you." That's what makes these games tough to navigate and fun to watch and play. Because of that, a juror has every right to screw the person who reached the end by screwing them over during it.

I will continue to say that Sandra is one of the best winners ever. Those who don't feel as I do...Too bad for you because you could have enjoyed watching a very entertaining player.

"I’m back, bitches!"
Posted by kingfish on 09-01-15 at 11:20 AM
Congrats to Johnny Mac, he makes a great pole dancer. I wish you had held on a little longer though.

Austin's Nomination speech ends with ”Victims aren’t we all. “ (and he didn’t state that as a question)

Right. I think I know what you’re trying to say, Austin, and it is evasive nonsense in the context of being an explanation for why he nominated his victims. The nominees are the victims, and you are not. Don’t pretend, it really is unnecessarily devious and insulting. You just sound like a WWE wrestler (that you are) trying to sound profound and actually comes out as comical, as if Popeye’s Bluto was trying to act professorial. Just stick to the very threadbare and tired script, Bluto. I like that he tried to mix it up and improvise, but I'm sorry he lacked the talent to do so with any imagination.

OK, by now everyone has snitched on everybody else, and everybody is a rat. This must be the Chinese year of the Snitch. But at the moment Vanessa is the busiest snitch and the biggest rat. It’s working for her, she does it well, and that is why she goes to the top of my list this week.

And what I want to see the most is the twins nominated against each other. I just think that could be revealing and would be entertaining in a laugh at them way. I hope it happens, but I think it won’t. A suggestion for the BB twist box: Let America choose the nominations once or twice. Might be fun.

I'm also glad that the houseguest return is done.

On to my list of the week:

Vanessa. – Biggest target, biggest snitch, biggest rat, and so on top of her game that I’m beginning to think that no one else has a chance barring some really unlucky breaks for her. And so far, all the breaks are going her way. The successive Austin/Liz/Vanessa HoH wins kept her in the game, and she actually seems to have used her own HoH win to cement herself with two opposing alliances, the second alliance being her insurance against being the low person on the totem pole in the first. This gives her a lot of options. I think that if she gets to the end against anybody in the Liz/Julia/Austin alliance, she will win.

And she finally used a Poker analogy, albeit in the Diary room.

She needs to have someone boot one of the triumvirate before F3. Preferably (for her game) someone else besides her, but even if she has to the dirty work, it would be essential in order for her to get to F2. And time is getting short.

Johnny Mac - Won re-entry to the house, and the main reason I rank him here is that he seems to have Vanessa sort of on his side and isn't the prime target for the J/J/A alliance. Nice job of tightrope walking diplomacy. Don't know how long it will last if he doesn't get HoH, but good on him for the moment. He also seems to demonstrate an ability to think strategically and is and intelligent enough to put past slights aside and concentrate on what's in his best interest. He also has shown a tendency to tell people what they want to hear while retaining the sense to act however it best suits him. I hope he can keep that up. I assume is now targeting the J/J/A alliance. Keeping Vanessa would be a dangerous tactic, but it's more important keep the one headed snake and cut one of the heads off of the three headed snake.

He is the most likely person to nominate Julia and Liz, and that would be make watching BB17 worthwhile. What a fun week that would be.

I think that this week I’ll use Michel’s idea and rank everybody else last. Or in descending order, least last.

Julia – (least last). Just because she’s the most likely to survive if the other side of the house gets a week of power (IMO they would, because they should, target Liz, then Austin). I’m assuming that the other side will get one more HoH at some point, very likely the next HoH, IMO.

However if they don't and if later on Julia’s three person alliance has to sacrifice one of their own, it will be her. So this ranking would change. I think Liz would be willing to throw her twin under the bus. That’s a close call, but with Austin in her ear, I think she would end up doing that.

I also like her humor.

Austin – (second least last). He’s in a good position, no one except maybe John has him at the top of their eviction list. The other side of the house seems to be more vulnerable, and Liz and even Julia are possibly bigger targets if the other side wins an HoH.

Talking to Vanessa, Austin steps in some dog poop when he explains why he is targeting Johnny Mac; “I'm sorry, but John is the last person I made an alliance with, so he has to go” (paraphrasing). Which pretty much telegraphs to a perceptive Vanessa that she would be next after Johnny if it came to that, and that she better be making other plans.

Liz – (third least last). She is the biggest target in her alliance, but her alliance is ascendant, so she is in a pretty good position. The situation between her and Julia will reverse if the three make it to final 3. She and Austin will probably take each other, leaving Julia out in the rain. But if she is up on the block before then, she is likely to be the bootee. And Austin will be very unhappy.

Steve – (forth least last). I can’t really understand why either alliance keeps him, he is a rat and a snitch (as are they all, so no big deal there), he can’t lie effectively, he can’t even speak intelligibly when pressed (esp. by Vanessa), but more significantly he is an unreliable vote for either side. He isn’t high in either alliance, and although he has vague ties to both, both seem to be humoring him. His logic is suspect, especially for a “huge BB expert/fan”, and his diary room confessions are weird. I have the feeling that he just makes stuff up for his DR interviews just to have something to say, because it seems that every week the person that he claims is his biggest threat changes and he has no legitimate rationales. I’m guessing that his lack of interaction, especially in the early weeks, has given him no firm ideas as to who to target or what’s really been happening, so he just makes up stories.

His latest mortal enemy is Meg? I have no idea why else he would feel that way. Indeed, his nomination of Meg and Jackie also indicated to me that he was living in his head with only occasional glimpses of what is/was happening in the house.

Meg - (Fifth least last). Very cute and humorous how she takes the "Granny Meg" title. She and James are allied with each other, so they are essentially tied for last, but her inability to win a challenge should make her less of a target than James. But for both of them, it was really dumb to highlight their alliance by each offering to go up on the block for the other in their session with Vanessa. I guess it has been somewhat obvious that they were allied before then, but the closeness of their alliance was really brought out then. As was commented, “They acted like a married couple”.

Every once in a while I am hit with imagining what would surprise me most, in a good way. And Meg winning a crucial challenge would fulfill that wish for me, especially if she did it is such a way as to show that she has been deliberately dogging the comps in order to pose as totally incompetent in challenges. That's not going to happen (obviously), but boy would that be fun.

James - (Sixth least last). – He seems to be the biggest target for the other J/L/A alliance due to his ability to win challenges. As useful as he is in the house for keeping personality clashes from becoming more inimical than they are, he is the favorite target of the Liz/Julia + Austin high school clique, and Vanessa will only support him if his presence will keep the balance of power from tipping too much to the alliance where she is at the bottom of the totem pole. I think Vanessa would like to do this, because she sees that she is the low rung alliance J/L/A member, but last week, in the similar situation with John, she declined to do this. So who knows?

And why didn’t James remind Vanessa about her promise to keep him + one safe? Dumb. He and Meg overthought that one. Sure, it might have shown Vanessa that they had a degree of mistrust toward her, but she surely has that in her calculus anyway. And sure, no oral promise is worth the paper it isn’t written on (as James himself demonstrated in breaking his agreement with Shelli), but since Vanessa was trying to appease James’ alliance, she might have changed her decision and put up Steve. He had nothing to lose by reminding her of their agreement. If he had, and if he survives (a long shot unless he wins Veto) he would have had some logical leverage in putting her up if he got HoH and somehow didn't see J/J/A alliance as the prime target.

Incidentally, his homies confirmed that James is into tall blondes. But you heard it here first.

I kinda thought that James was going to go all horndog over Vanessa’s girlfriend. I kinda did. Or would have. But it was probably a good move that he didn’t, but probably not a good move that he focused instead on her mom.



Crabman

"RE: I’m back, bitches!"
Posted by michel2 on 09-01-15 at 04:37 PM
Well hello, Mr Fish. The more, the merrier!

I like your list and your way of bashing all the "least last". We rate these players very similarly so I just have afew points to make:

You write: "Austin...You just sound like...Popeye’s Bluto... trying to act professorial"

That speech was perfect in its bombastic smugness. Austin isn't intentionally funny but he sure is good for laughs. He's an uncultured Coach.

>"OK, by now everyone has snitched
>on everybody else, and everybody
>is a rat..."

One of two things: Either we look for the bigger rats or, like I suggested a while back, we use a stricter definition of snitch!

>"What I want to see the most is
>the twins nominated against
>each other"

I'd like that a lot also.

>"Johnny Mac...He also seems to
>demonstrate an ability to think
>strategically and is and
>intelligent enough to put past
>slights aside and concentrate
>on what's in his best interest."

If only he had done so earlier. Vanessa tried to show him the value of working together before but he dismissed her because of unfounded hatred. He wouldn't have needed to go through that requalification challenge and would look much more deserving to still be in the house.

>"And why didn’t James remind
>Vanessa about her promise to
>keep him + one safe? Dumb."

You answered your own question when you wrote that James told everyone that promises mean nothing. Imagine you had lent me $1000 and I had openly refused to ever honor that debt. I wouldn't be so dumb to think I could go back to you asking for another $1000. If you remember, I told you back then that it showed James' stupidity. It's hard to believe that he'd think the old deal could still be activated!!!


"RE: I’m back, bitches!"
Posted by Aruba on 09-01-15 at 07:28 PM
Adding to your kudos on Johnny Mac, I believe he was a have-not this past week, so winning his way back into House on a slop diet is even more commendable. You would think swinging on a pole would have been more in Jackie’s wheelhouse. I’m mildly (yet pleasantly) surprised not to hear Johnny’s efforts being discredited as just another “Production conspiracy.”

Had he hung on longer and won HOH we’d have the same result. He told Julie, the studio audience, and all of the viewers Meg would be his primary target...and going that route it would make sense to put her up with James.

I’ll chime in with you (and Michel) wanting to see the twins nominated against each other.

Hey, you might get your wish with Meg. She could very well follow the same script as Spenser and Victoria and float her way to the F3. I’m not sure what Production could possibly conjure up for the there-part final competition that would be in Meg’s wheelhouse, but some fans believe Production has become quite proficient in “rigging” competitions so anything is possible. Even if your “wish” comes true, NO ONE would believe she was deliberately tanking prior comps. It would be more like Wesley Snipe’s quote in White Men Can’t Jump that “even the sun shines on a dog’s ass some days.”

As for James not pressing harder to remind Vanessa about the “deal”...you accurately assessed Vanessa as the biggest rat, liar, etc. so the attempt would have been futile. And reneging on the Shelli/Clay “deal” completely cripples whatever bargaining power he might try to work up.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #10"
Posted by kingfish on 09-01-15 at 08:35 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-01-15 AT 08:36 PM (EST)

All valid points, except by now I would have thought that you would have realized that a snitch is not defined by the results of his actions, but rather by the act of snitching in and of itself without regard to motive or results. So, we disagree on a word meaning. I think we've beat that to death by now.

I especially agree that Johnny Mac should have worked with Vanessa earlier.

Your and Aruba's points are also valid in regard to James, except that even with (as you both point out) the odds being against him succeeding, and the plea likely (not definitely, though, she actually could have given some credence to his argument and reminder) to have been futile, still it was worth a shot, and he had nothing to lose. So why leave even a bent arrow in his quiver?

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #10"
Posted by michel2 on 09-01-15 at 08:55 PM
Yes, it is a matter of semantics and we have beat it to death but a snitch gets ordinary people in big trouble with the law, the mafia, etc... A tattler gets his kid brother in trouble with mom. Not the same at all because of the results so they have to count. That's the last I'll say on that.


James said that using that argument could have backfired so he felt he had something to lose.

"Prediction:"
Posted by kingfish on 09-03-15 at 09:34 AM
Tonite, everything will remain the same, or everything will change.

Brilliant, right? You are probably thinking that I actually do have a crystal ball.

Double evictions tend to screw up the best laid plans, especially with the Bozoid Steve in the house, but you gotta love them because unpredictability is entertaining.

With the first eviction, either way it goes, Vanessa will have painted herself into a corner. Either Johnny, James, and Steve will vote Julia out, and Vanessa will have to somehow deal with the fact that her best bet is to reinforce her ties to a group that includes two members that really really hate her and two others that have expressed pure hatred of her in the past, or if Meg goes, she will have to deal with the fact that she will be allied with the group that will bounce her before feeding on one of their own.

As I see it, the most advantageous outcome from her stand point is if Julia goes and she has a chance to make nice with James, Meg, Steve, and John, something she has a chance at (at least) with Steve, and maybe John (I don't believe for a second that John is really buddy buddy with her, but he occasionally shows sign of practicality).

It is crucial for each of their (James, John, Steve) games to recognize that this is a chance for them to get a fresh breath of life and end the domination of the AusTwins. And possibly start Vanessa on her way out the door.

The second HoH comp will be also be crucial for all of them and for me. If the AusTwins continue to run the game, I probably will have to resort to a drinking game in order to be entertained. How about a shot every time one of the twins says OMG? Think our livers can take it?

.

"Counter-Prediction:"
Posted by michel2 on 09-03-15 at 04:49 PM

I don't get the sense that the Austwins are mad at Vanessa for nomiating Julia. If she does leave, they will be mad at Jmac and Steve for going against Vanessa's plan to evict Meg.

Jmac and Steve don't hate Vanessa anymore so I really don't see that she is cornered.

The ONLY bad thing that could happen to Vanessa is James winning HoH. She has showed him how to keep a pawn safe: James could just nominate Julia next to the poker player and it would leave Vanessa in need of veto. Then again, Austin could possibly convince James to put up Jmac next to Vanessa but he will have to be quick about it during the commercial breaks.

- If Austin wins HoH the nominations should be Jmac/Steve.
- If Liz or Julia win HoH, the nominations will be James and Jmac (maybe Steve in place of Jmac if it's Julia)
- If Steve or Jmac win HoH it will be James and Liz.

"RE: Counter-Prediction:"
Posted by kingfish on 09-03-15 at 06:21 PM
I don't think there's hatred from the Austwin toward Vanessa either, even if Julia goes. But there's no denying that whoever's left will boot Vanessa before the other, and she has to understand that little fact. This is the perfect opportunity to have a twin eliminated, which she really needs if she wants to have a chance to get to the end.

And I think you may have John estimated incorrectly. He was nominated by Vanessa's alliance four times. I would bet a nickel that he hasn't forgotten that, or that even though he was somewhat arm twisted into some of the early noms, and in addition arm twisted into throwing them, that he isn't their biggest fan.

More to the point, you don't think that he might see that this is the perfect time for he, Steve, and James to break up the trio? He would need James and Steve to go along with that plan, and Steve could screw it up. But surely John will see that booting Julia, whether he hates them or not, is his best play. Then hope the HoH goes his, John, Meg (heh), or even Stave's way. The Austwins would be out numbered in that comp. He has nothing to gain by continuing to work with Vanessa and the Austwins, and a more of a chance to advance by working to break them up.

But really? you think that John and Stave are really friends again with Vanessa, just because they tell her that?

Finally, surely it will occur to Vanessa that this her best chance to escape being the bottom rung in the Austwins alliance. If she works on John and Steve, well, she copuld sway them.

I see no way that John or Steve will nominate James. Either will nominate Vanessa and an Austwin, I think. Steve I'm less sure about. Otherwise I agree with your nom. predictions.

Well, you may be right, we'll see tonite. I think it'll be fun.

"RE: Counter-Prediction:"
Posted by michel2 on 09-03-15 at 07:23 PM
Since Steve won't go for it, mostly because James and Meg haven't given him any reason to do it, then JMac will not vote against Julia. He certainly wants to break up the trio but it's not smart to start with Julia who is just about as good in competitions as Meg.

Vanessa would prefer to keep her options open instead of having Meg stay and be a vote in James' pocket. If she can get Meg out now and James booted during the DE, then she will have the Austwins going after Steve/Jmac while those two will be going after the Austwins. Isn't that the perfect situation for Vanessa?


"But really? you think that John and Steve are really friends again with Vanessa, just because they tell her that?"

Steve, yes certainly. Jmac is a dumbass who may not like her but he doesn't know what else he should do. He didn't even seem to talk to Vanessa during the Wednesday episode. While that could have been editing, it seems the Live Feeders didn't see anything either before the veto ceremony. Staying off the block showed him that Vanessa wasn't lying.

"RE: Prediction:"
Posted by Aruba on 09-03-15 at 07:00 PM
Unpredictability is entertaining, but I got the sense the last DE was anything but unpredictable. It will be interesting to see if the HGs will expect another DE this soon. Although knowing where they are now and knowing when the season ends, I believe most if not all can do the math and know another DE is imminent this season.

I think the first eviction will be anticlimactic. There’s no way Austin/Liz vote to evict Julia. Johnny Mac has already made it clear he wanted Meg out next. Steve is an ignorant puppy dog who will follow the majority.

I agree with Michel’s “counter-prediction.” I definitely agree with the ONLY bad thing that could happen to Vanessa is James winning HOH. I’ll even take it a step further and make a bolder prediction that if James does not win the next HOH, Vanessa probably wins the game. If James wins HOH he will absolutely put up Liz next to Vanessa because it will guarantee Austin/Julia will vote to evict Vanessa and not care what Jmac and Steve do because he could break the tie and send Vanessa out the door.

Should Julia stay in the game (and I think she will) Jmac and Steve will almost have to go with Vanessa just to neutralize the Austwins Three. If James does not win HOH, I’m pretty sure he sits in a nomination chair regardless of who wins HOH. He has too much of a reputation as one who can win competitions. So I would go with the Michel predictions if anyone other than James wins with just one exception predicting if Austin wins he’ll nominate James/Jmac.

"We are all sooo smart."
Posted by kingfish on 09-04-15 at 08:55 AM
We were all right. More props should go to Aruba and Michel, because I simply predicted that Vanessa was going to be in a pickle whichever way the first eviction went which was kinda of a DUH! prediction, but you all actually made specific eviction predictions.

I do disagree with Aruba in regard to Vanessa winning if James doesn't win that crucial HoH. I think Vanessa's goose is probably cooked anyway, she no longer has a viable secondary alliance, and she's still fourth among four in her primary alliance, and only has a sluggers chance at F2.

But, she still does have a small window of opportunity, because in the upcoming HoH comp Liz can't compete and there is another chance that a Austwin can be knocked off, but IMO her odds are a lot longer now. And for all practical purposes nonexistent if J-Mac or Steve are booted

Got to give some credit to the twins, they both have whatever kind of memory it takes to look at a picture briefly and recall details.

And Steve...I feel sorry for him and at the sametime I am disgusted with him. What a Bozo. They finally, at last, had an Austwin on the block, and he blows it. Again! Without his vote J-Mac and James are helpless. But he's such a pitiable fellow too.

Finally, just between you and I, I pity Vanessa's girlfriend if Vanessa's demeanor IRL is like that she is in the house. I can easily see how that would be an advantage at the poker table, but in casual living that would drive me up the wall.

.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by michel2 on 09-04-15 at 03:58 PM
Thank you, Kingfish. These players are very predictable so it wasn't hard to imagine what Liz would do.

As for Vanessa, I disagree with you. I feel that she has put herself in the absolute best position we've seen in games like this. Maybe Hatch in Borneo and Brian in Thailand had it as good when they reached the F6 but I don't see anyone else.

Vanessa probably won't need to win any comps before F3 HoH and even then it could work for her without it. Yes, she is 4th in the Austin's Angels alliance but she has Steve and JMac gunning for them. Odds are that the next two HoH's will be split: One will be won by either Steve or Jmac which should lead to the end of the showmance with one of Austiz leaving. The other HoH will probably be won by an Austwin meaning Jmac will leave. Even if the Austwins are the next 2 HOHs, Vanessa will still be there but then she'd have to win a couple of comps.

At F4, we should have Vanessa, Steve, Julia and either Liz or Austin. Steve would be targeting the remaining Austwins while those two would be going for Steve. Vanessa could sit back and observe although it would be nice to have the F4 veto.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by Aruba on 09-04-15 at 07:06 PM
I thank you too, Kingfish. With the minor exception of Steve, these HGs are easy-readers. But in Steve’s case it’s not because he’s such a good player; “Bozos” are wildcards incapable of being read.

I would respond to your disagreement on Vanessa, but my reply would be exactly as stated by Michel. Actually that’s not true...Michel explained it ten times better than I could have. His analogy of Brian in Survivor:Thailand is dead-on! Vanessa’s poker skills came in handy when James was eliminated from the HOH comp, because she needed a true poker face not to show any giddy enthusiasm. The only thing I see derailing her is if Steve or Jmac (whether it be intentionally or not) exposes or leaks Vanessa as the BB Mata Hari of the season.

It’s ironic you noted Popeye/Bluto in your ranking list because it’s Vanessa who talks like a drunken sailor. What a pathetic potty-mouth. Add that to the reference you made when pitying Vanessa’s girlfriend. She’d drive me up a wall too. But if her net worth claim is accurate I guess I could think of four-and-a half million reasons why Vanessa’s girlfriend puts up with her.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by kingfish on 09-05-15 at 11:34 AM
If the rumors are true about who won HoH and who that person nominated, then a second opportunity to boot a dominant alliance member is in the offing, and window of survival opportunity has opened for Vanessa. But if that's true, then why wasn't Julia booted last week? How was booting James more important for every non-Austwin's game than booting an Austwin?

As to whether the she is exposed as the BB17 king rat/Mata Hari/snitch, I think that horse has been out of the barn for a while. Every one knows that she is a super conniver. The only secret she may have left is her sub-rosa alliance with the non-Austwin alliance (which you were referring to I assume), and it is the rare Survival show of any kind in which that kind of deception doesn't come to light in time to bite someone on the butt.

We will see. Should be fun this week.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by michel2 on 09-05-15 at 03:43 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-05-15 AT 03:52 PM (EST)


>why wasn't Julia booted
>last week? How was booting
>James more important for every
>non-Austwin's game than booting an
>Austwin?


I guess you meant "how was booting Meg..." instead of James.

For Vanessa, James was the only real foe so it was vital for her to get him out. When she couldn't, it would have been extremely dumb to anger Austiz and leave Meg in the game as a certain vote against her. Therefore, she HAD to push for Meg's eviction.

Steve is an obediant puppy so he followed her lead but his main reasoning was that he didn't want to anger Austiz too early. They had James and Jmac in their sights at that time so why give them a new target before the next HoH was decided? Liz won that HoH and, since Steve and Jmac kept Julia, she only had ONE target: James. I'd say it worked out perfectly for Ste-Van

Jmac was another story: He did consider booting Julia but, in the end, James and Meg had nothing to offer him that he didn't already have with Ste-Van.

Simply put, James and Meg played an extremely weak game. Julie, for once, was on the ball when she told James that he didn't do anything when he wasn't HoH.

As for being exposed, Vanessa could always say that she got close to Jmac as a way to protect them all. In fact, she could say that he voted to keep Julia because she worked her magic on him. As for Steve, he is part of the "scamper squad" so there's nothing to worry about being exposed for talking strategy with him.

PS. Austin dedicated his vote against James to Jace which shows that James was dumb to make his "big move" so early.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by kingfish on 09-05-15 at 05:14 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-05-15 AT 05:20 PM (EST)

Thanks, I did mean Meg. But the question is still unanswered. It wasn't why was it more important to Vanessa, but why was it more important to the non-Austwins, which I hope means everyone else but Vanessa.

But even for her, this was the perfect chance to get out from under the domination of the Austwin trio's dominance. Which, no matter how you look at had to happen if she wanted to get to F2.

The Steve reasoning doesn't really hold water either, because early or late, whoever's left of the Austwin will be just as angry, except that if they had done it early they would have had one more potential vote, and heck and be danged with whatever anger they the two that were left had, they would have been helpless.

Jmac was another story. You're right, without Steve he and James were helpless (I think I already said that). Again, it boils down to another stupid decision by Steve.

Not arguing about the scenario you and Aruba set out, it's logical and could happen. Just about some of the dumb strategy or lack thereof. Did we not also mention something about them being complete morons (with the possible exception of Vanessa. And IMO James)?

.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by michel2 on 09-05-15 at 09:27 PM
I think the events that unfolded AFTER Meg's eviction show why Steve's decision wasn't dumb at all. Liz won HoH and she targeted James. That means Austin and Julia would have done the same if either of them had been HoH. Steve couldn't have known for sure that the Autwins would win HoH but it certainly was a possibility. Even if one of the three won the latest HoH, they'd still go after Jmac before Steve.

Had Steve booted Julia then Liz and Austin would have been gunning for him. It's much better to delay the big moves as much as possible. Get out the variables like Meg and James first THEN go after your big targets. Steve knew that Liz, Austin and Julia wouldn't target him or Vanessa, so why rock the boat?

IMO James was a dumb player.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by kingfish on 09-05-15 at 11:22 PM
So, it's Steve that had the crystal ball?

No matter how you paint the picture, Steve would have been better off if the AusTwins had been weakened up when they finally had one of them on the block. And Vanessa too, for that matter.

I think it's pretty clear that we disagree in regard to James' game play. But he's gone, so he surely should have done something differently.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by michel2 on 09-06-15 at 07:41 AM
If I'm playing chess and I see that my opponent could be building an attack on my queen, am I using a crystal ball or am I thinking a few moves ahead? It wasn't hard to calculate the odds that one of the Austwins could win HoH and it was clear that they weren't gunning for him.

You have to think one or two moves ahead in these games and no, Steve would not have weakened the Austwins enough by getting rid of Julia. Quite the opposite, he would have poked that sleeping bear AND he would have broken his deal with Vanessa.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by kingfish on 09-06-15 at 09:15 AM
"...Steve would not have weakened the Austwins enough by getting rid of Julia. "

So, reducing the Austwins voting power by one third, and not losing Meg's vote, thus removing the Austwins from a position of dominance to a position of begging to stay alive would not have been enough?

Au contraire, it would have been the most beneficial move he should have made. He didn't need to look ahead more than that one move to see that.

As for his deal with Vanessa, what deal? Would that deal have been as solid as the one she made with James? Or would it have been as unbreakable as any other BB deal that other stupid people have fallen for? How gullible can he possibly be to rely on a deal he made with Vanessa? No crystal ball or chess grandmaster needed to see that.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by michel2 on 09-06-15 at 04:36 PM

>Au contraire, it would have been
>the most beneficial move he
>should have made. He didn't
>need to look ahead more
>than that one move to
>see that.

How can you even write that? We saw that it worked out perfectly when Liz won HOH and targeted James. Whether he made the calculations, looked ahead a couple of moves or simply counted on his gut, Steve's move worked. MAYBE your plan would have worked also but we know that voting out Meg and letting Liz target James worked beautifully for Steve. I feel your move is a TV move, one made to please the audience, instead of a strategic move, one to advance the player.

>As for his deal with Vanessa,
>what deal?

There's a big chance that the master strategist wants to take him to the F2. That's a pretty good deal for this simpleton.

>Would that deal
>have been as solid as
>the one she made with
>James?

You mean the one she made with James on Day 44? The one James didn't even bring up because he knew his own actions had killed it? YES, I'd say Steve's deal is much more solid.


>How gullible can he possibly
>be to rely on a
>deal he made with Vanessa?
>No crystal ball or chess
>grandmaster needed to see that.

No, he doesn't need a crystal ball to see that the deal is mutually beneficial. Vanessa isn't well liked by the jury but they have to respect her game. Steve's game isn't respected but he could be less hated. It gives both players a chance to earn the 1/2M so that makes for a good deal.


"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by Aruba on 09-06-15 at 03:02 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-06-15 AT 03:05 PM (EST)

It’s rather entertaining to sit back and watch someone else trying to be educated by the Nostradamus School of Prophecy. I’m getting a sneaky suspicion Kingfish may be looking to “transfer out” from that silly School as well.

As for Steve, I don’t think it matters much which way he went between Julia and Meg because I see him on the bottom rung regardless of where he ends up. He’d definitely be on the bottom with the Austwins. I see him on the bottom with Vanessa and Jmac. And he would be on the bottom as well with James and Meg had Julia been evicted.

I think it made perfect sense to cut Meg loose. Kind of like what Tony did in S28 leading the charge to eliminate Pillow Morgan. Whereas it’s tempting to keep an inept player around as long as you can because they are appropriately perceived as a non-threat, Sandra could provide two million reasons how that strategy could backfire poorly.

Actually I may question evicting James over Jmac a little bit more. I’m not criticizing the HGs because it was DE and you’re forced to make a kneejerk decision. Had they had a week to ponder it over, the prospect of keeping a lightning rod in the House could have made Jmac’s return to the House a short stay. When Vanessa and Shelli were on the block, if that had been DE and the HGs needed to cast immediate votes I’m fairly certain Vanessa enters the Jury House first. But after a week of deliberation everyone saw what an appetizing meat shield Vanessa is and Shelli was the casualty. Although fast forward to current time, it wouldn’t have mattered because Vanessa would have won her way back into the game.

Whether you agree with me or not on the James/Jmac DE vote, I'll say this...the two HGs who are put up on the block tonight are going to wish James was still in the House.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by michel2 on 09-06-15 at 04:49 PM
"Sandra could provide two million reasons how that strategy could backfire poorly."

While Sandra certainly benefitted from being under the radar, you forget that she did a LOT to put the target on the other players. She was inept in challenges but she was great at handling the jury. Winning challenges enables you to put a piece of junk around your neck and gets you a pat on the back from Probst. Winning the jury votes gets you the million. Yet you still put more weight on winning comps...It baffles me!

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by Aruba on 09-06-15 at 06:13 PM
Sandra benefitted in Pearl Islands because a majority of jurors were bitter that Lil and Burton won their way back into the game. In H vs. V she benefitted by anti-Russell votes and the skank Perv-ati was guilty by association regarded as Russell’s B!tch.

In both seasons Sandra was fortunate to be on strong tribes that won early tribal challenges thus she was carried nicely to the merge. She did diddly squat to put targets on other players...the other players had targets on them through no doing of hers. She was able to advance by being appropriately perceived as an inept non-threat player.

If you’re truly baffled about emphasis being put on winning comps, you have a short-term memory. Last season Mike does not earn a well-deserved and most satisfying win if he doesn’t dominate challenges. Westman and JT were very good social players but none of that would have meant squat if they did not dominate the necessary challenges they won down the stretch.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by kingfish on 09-07-15 at 01:40 PM
Although it baffles me how you (Michel) can write that it is better for Steve's game not to take a 100% guaranteed shot at weakening the dominate alliance, the alliance that was most likely to vote him out at F5 and that you can maintain that keeping one extra vote that is more likely to be friendly isn't a good thing (I am truly baffled), it is a irreconcilable difference of opinion, and what makes America great is the right to be wrong as heck, so I respect your right to be wrong.(Smiley face).

I'll save you the trouble of saying that you probably respect my right to be wrong (although I'm not) also.

And before you respond, I'll concede that Steve's gamble does seem to be paying off, no matter who wins VETO, although if the rumors are true, we both get a double wish come true this week) so maybe he did have a crystal ball after all, and it's become a moot point now. I'll even say that I'll probably give Steve props for finally showing some sense when I respond to Aruba's L/L post if he doesn't blow it if he gets a chance to name a replacement.

I'll also concede that with Steve finally doing what he should have done last week, that Vanessa's game outlook is improved also. She's still in hot water (IMO) because there are no more hidden alliances (unless the twins are really really REALLY dumb - not a possibility to be ruled out) and that it's getting to the point where she should be getting nominated in each of the remaining weeks, she is still able to weave her magic, and that's a common characteristic for past winners at this stage of their games.

.

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by michel2 on 09-07-15 at 03:19 PM
Just the fact that the Austwins were ROOTING for Steve to win HoH should show you that I am right!

If this was Survivor then weakening a dominant alliance would be great but this is BB. Getting rid of Julia would not have weakened the Austwins much because she was unlikely to win HoH. Austin and Liz were much more dangerous and the fact that Liz won and didn't target Steve meant that he calculated correctly. It's so evident that it baffles me that we are still arguing about it...

"RE: We are all sooo smart."
Posted by kingfish on 09-08-15 at 08:32 AM
" It's so evident that it baffles me that we are still arguing about it...'

Ah, little grasshopper, so young, and with so much to learn.