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"Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-10-15 at 06:26 AM
Things not looking good for the Sixth Sense. The Donato Alliance kept things rolling with weekly competition wins. But this season’s early dominant alliance hit a couple potholes by losing back-to-back HOHs.

JOHNNY – When the short-lived “BBScandal” broke after the POV comp, who was right there enjoying a front row seat? Johnny Mac. And whose DR commentary of that scandal once again earns best DR clip for the week? Johnny Mac. Continues to perform well in comps. Who retains #1 ranking this week? Johnny Mac.

JACKIE – Read Vanessa like a Dr. Suess children’s book. If pro poker players read her like this Las Vegas dancer, Vanessa will need to look for another profession. Arguably may have the best head in the game at this stage of the season. It’s a crying shame though her body had to be covered up with that silly suit of armor.

JAMES – All the cowards who fall in love with the dastardly backdoor approach should take a lesson from the little man with a backbone and just put your primary targets up from the get go. Well done! Completed the “weekly double”—HOH and POV wins. With a lot of high number targets clustered on the right side of the POV board he seemed to be the only one to take advantage of it. Oh that’s right, because he’s smaller and his eye level is closer to the ground I suppose the POV comp was also an unfair advantage for James. LOL

SHELLI – Probably should be lower for the way she carried on this week while on the block, but deserves props for completing her punishment. Shelli and Clay were on the block because she lost the HOH by making a “deal” with James, yet her prior challenge prowess is most likely the main reason she’s alive. The Sixth Sense knew she’s a more valuable asset than Clay going forward for that reason. Bad news though—she will continue to be a primary target whenever a non-sixth sense member wins HOH.

BECKY – Any negative effect from snitching seems to be erased by winning HOH. Current HOHs are generally ranked higher on my list, but horrible decision being a piggy, piggy, oink, oink and taking all three balls. The 5K she won in the POV hasn’t even started earning interest and she hogs up another 5K? Every HN going forward will resent the fact she will never be one. I see no game benefit from the snitch’s greed.

JULIA/LIZ – Still hard to separate. Smart of them to lay low for the time being. Two HOH nominations as separate players and no nominations. Yep, it sure is detrimental being an “obvious pair.” (Now how can a ranking go by without yanking on my main man’s chain!)

AUSTIN – For two weeks earlier in the season, he was a factor in the game from the background. Lately he’s been just a 6’5” backdrop. His “nomance” with Liz is not even good TV. Dude needs to step up in the game to move up my ranking.

VANESSA – Over the top emotional. I’ve never seen anyone not at primary risk do so much scrambling this week…scrambling that brought more needless attention to her. It’s a good thing conversing is optional at the poker table because when she’s being sketchy her mouth rambles a mile a minute. Maybe that’s how Jackie can read her so well.

MEG – WOW, who slipped some Rohypnol in Meg’s tankard during the POV comp? I sure hope Meg can serve a good drink; because apparently she can’t drink a good drink. Not sure what to make of Clay’s parting words that she’s been in a showmance with every guy in the House. HMMM, could our cute little China Doll be turning into a blow-up doll?

STEVE – Didn’t think we’d ever come across a bigger HG joke than Victoria from last season—then Steve entered the House. He’s on pace to continue the current trend of irrelevant HGs, i.e. Jenn City, Spencer, Victoria who will advance deep in the game by being…well…irrelevant.

EVICTED) CLAY – For someone who’s been speculated to have taken one too many hits, I thought he handled himself very well with Julie after his eviction. He knew darn well his alliance mates would keep Shelli for the exact reason I stated before, so let’s not play that ridiculous chivalry card and make it like you’re falling on a sword for the woman you “love.” He deserved to be evicted over Shelli, and it would have been unfair torture for Shelli to watch Meg all over him like a cat in heat for the rest of the season.

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"The gods must be crazy"
Posted by kingfish on 08-10-15 at 01:08 PM
The gods must be crazy. They kept Shelli.

As are the houseguests if they think that Shelli will be easier to manipulate than Clay would be. Shelli is likely to have blood in her eye (and coming put of he nose - and wherever - if she or her alliance lands in a position of power next week. But at least the fight revealed in the last episode between Clay, and James, Vanessa, and James removed some of the mystery as to why the vote whet the way it did.

The producers are of mixed opinions, I would suppose. They would like the “Easy on the Eyes” Shelli to remain, but are fearful that this season’s incarnation of Rachael and her waterfall approach to strategy will alienate the TV audience. Like it didn’t do with Rachael. So, so much for their mixed opinions.

Continuing the lessons in life from Big Brother - When things don't go your way, go to bed and hide from the world under your comforter.

John – America’s favorite, I suppose. Great spot for him, remains to be seen if he can handle the scheming, snitching, and tall tale telling. But he’s put himself in a good position, not too likely to be nominated or evicted. Good on ya’, Johnny!

He’s also revealed some game play, or at least that he’s pretty perceptive of the game’s undercurrents - as well as the game’s tidal waves (a Vanessa reference). And still the most entertaining Diarist. Meg’s holding her own in second place, and is ahead of him in humorous challenge attempts.

James – Vanessa isn’t fooling him a bit. I like his bluntness in his diary room conversations with us and especially to the other houseguests. Also in the way he stood up to Clay. Refreshing, although that forthrightness could very well be elevating his targetability, especially if Shelli has any say. Still, Shelli seems to be the only houseguest gunning for him specifically, he's navigating the game without alienating the others and I think he could last. He is actually leading the others without being a dictator.

Although he was gunning for Shelli, he ended up voting for Clay to go. Which, to me, shows good leadership and willingness to bend to the wishes of your team. The fight with Clay probably also affected his vote.

Becky – Could not really place her until this week, but I’m putting her here based on her HoH win and her plan. A good plan for her, and one which she seems to have had ready to go without much hesitation. I think she’s no longer floundering, and she obviously hasn’t alienated the James Jacky Meg alliance as much as I thought she might with her little snitching. They don’t seem to think it’s that big of a deal. But she’s a different Becky from week to week. In spite of her snitching on the “Other side of the House” as to what their real plan was in regard to Clay and Shelli, they still discuss strategy in front of her, and she still seems to be sympathetic to them. Being in both alliances is a really good thing as long as neither finds out or cares, but last week her tattle telling was obvious. So which side is she really on? She says she is leaning again to the Freaks and Geeks, but Shelli probably correctly observes that she will go with whichever side is in power. The Freaks and Geeks are her latest allegiance. But if she puts up Vanessa, even as a back door, and Vanessa survives…well, I don’t know what would be the result, except that Vanessa would be talking, arguing, and fake crying a lot, and Becky’s name may get mentioned more than once.

That she didn’t even want to listen to Vanessa’s Deal making was kinda dumb (first, why not listen? Second, it’s really not a good idea to show your hand to Vanessa) but it did show that she had Vanessa’s number, to an extent.

BB guests should not get hung up on hypocrisy (along with so called honor, or keeping promises sworn to on whoever), and it can be a detriment to their game if they think that they should avoid it. But Becky was adamant in her HoH planning session with her alliance that no-one should snitch to the others of her plan. She made a definite point of this with them. Then she immediately (as edited) snitches on herself to Shelli. Doubly hypocritical in light of her previous tattle-telling. I would love it if she gets away with this, but it seems like a risky razor’s edge to walk.

I can only guess that she is a skater and that the others are not after the slip and slide challenge. Her movements in the grease reminded me of someone gliding across a frozen pond. I like the quote from John (I think it was him?) that “she gets hit in the face with a train and becomes a superwoman”.

Vanessa – is active and smart. She’s made herself very vulnerable, but the crunch will come when we see if she is capable of weathering the storm. She’s overplaying her hand so she’s down a position or two on my list this week. She is great at coming up with strategies and slants on events that keeps her alive, but the other alliance (especially Johnny and Jackie) has caught on to her, and she is very targetable. Her incessant arguing is not helping her, except that her arguments actually do seem to be keeping her safe. So maybe they are helping in a stop gap way? At least she’s safer than some others – i.e. (Shelli, Austin, and she might start working the twins angle (Liz) if pushed into a corner). However her impeccable timing for calling others out, her skill at presenting the actions of others and slanting the facts in her favor, and her reads of the other players (with some exceptions) is keeping her in the upper part of my list.

She missed the read on Jackie. She must be getting tired. More likely she’s fallen into the trap of talking when she should be listening and watching. Those ghostly eyes are usually particularly good at discernment when that obnoxious mouth isn’t moving.

Being up this high is only because of my estimation of her as revealed in the past, that she can talk her way out of trouble, and is in spite of the fact that that talent may be letting her down lately. She is a very big target right now.

Jackie – Jackie says that now she’s going to war! I thought she was stepping up until she voted for Clay to leave. There was something going (revealed as the fight that alienated Clay) that caused everyone to switch their votes from Shelli to Clay. And as I suspected, that something was mostly Vanessa.

Her read of Vanessa was unexpectedly sharp. Good for you Jackie, I think it was an aberration, but hopefully not.

BTW – as a dancer, she should have been the odds on favorite to win the slip and slide challenge.

Julia – (she who smirks to the left) is still the more perceptive of the twins. She has Austin’s number after watching him flop around in regard to the Jason story. Her only vulnerability that I see is her sister bond, and since Liz is also bonded with Austin, she is the more vulnerable.

Meg – She voted for Clay to leave. A very big surprise to me. She seems to be a sympathetic character in the house, and her alliance is ascendant. As to her coming on to everyone in the house, I think that was just a weird comment by a momentarily embarrassed Clay. He enjoyed her attention, but after wiping off her lipstick he realized that he needed to cover that moment somehow.

Her Slip and slide challenge was hilarious. The others were pretty funny, if painful, too. There were a lot of sore and creaky houseguests waking up the next morning.

Steve – He lives in his head too much. The producers are saving up clips of his private moments which are funny and kinda embarrassing. He’s made it this far, and as long as the stronger players are targeting each other, he is in a good position. He is proof of the theory that floating can be a good strategy for going far into the game. It's not yet proven is whether it is any proof of the theory that floating can be a winning strategy. Another theory, that being a truly weird person will get you to the wire is also not yet proven.

Something else has been hidden by editing, I think. And that is the reason for Steve’s thinking that he is Becky biggest target. She did nominate him once. Then she assured him that he was a pawn, and the 12-1 vote indicated that that was probably true. Either he’s basically fabricated the basis for his paranoia, or unknown to us, Becky has done or said something to him to cause him to think this way.

I think self-manufactured paranoia is the most likely reason, because, after Shelli nominated his this week and gave as her reason that he was doing so well in the game (I think she meant is to be a blow softening reason for her nomination), his response was very volatile.

Liz – (She who smirks to the right) is the more vulnerable due to being in two duos, and to being vulnerable to Austin’s deceptions. Her receptiveness of his advances (and she does seem to be softening despite her denials), and the fact that she defended him – she did do that - the TV audience watched her argue with Julia when Julia called him out about that, plus the little kiss for this and that games she's playing indicate the softening, are not a good signs for her.

Shelli – She obviously improved her position by surviving. But she’s the next target along with Vanessa and Austin of the “Other side of the House”. She lost HoH this week, so her, Austin’s and Vanessa’s positions are a lot less secure. And after seeing how Vanessa manages to squirm out of harm’s way, of the three it may be down to Shelli and Austin.

Her big target is James (she has blood coming out of her, whatever? Nose?) for evicting the light of her life. Face it Shelli, your idiotic deal with James caused the light of your life to go home. No one but you is at fault there. Clay, you get one day of lawful girlfriend beating when the show is over. Make it a week. Make it one day out of every week forever.

But she is way down here because she is just as pitiful as a survivor this week as she was last week as a probable evictee. Just no pleasing this woman.

Austin – Could go any week that the other alliance is in power. His foot in mouth strategy has got him to the one foot in the grave position. If the Freaks are still in power next week, Austin is on the block.

Needs to get rid of that little beard pigtail, although that might be part of his WWE persona.

Clay – Must have taken too many blows to the head as someone mentioned. He gave up a chance at a ½ mill for a showmance. What an idiot. Romantic in the most idiotic way possible.



"RE: The gods must be crazy"
Posted by Aruba on 08-10-15 at 08:58 PM
I don’t know…maybe it’s just me but I’m not the least bit baffled by the turn of events. I’m sticking to my prior post that after the POV (and it became inevitable one of the two would be evicted) the remaining Sixth Sense members must have had a few pow-wows to determine which way they would go between Shelli & Clay and vote as a block. Understand this occurs BEFORE Becky wins the recent HOH competition, so it’s very obvious to me (and most likely to the Sixth Sense as well) that Shelli gives their alliance the best chance to win going forward given her challenge history.

With that said I’m sure Clay was keenly aware the alliance would be voting to keep Shelli. This led to a chain of events where Clay proceeded to dig a deeper grave for himself. As a sinking ship he tried to blow up James’ game which ended blowing up in his own face. In the end he had a convenient copout and used the showmance to come off as Shelli’s white knight. Like I said before, I’m not buying that “falling on a sword” nonsense for one second.

James was the only one truly “gunning” for Shelli. Naturally he garnished support because he was HOH. But from what I saw, James did not use his HOH reign to “strong arm” others and force a Shelli eviction. He pretty much gave free rein to the HGs to vote the way they wanted. In the end when it came back to James they wanted Clay out for the reasons I just gave, I agree with you that it was smart of him to cater to the wishes of his team.

I did not specifically state it in my rankings, but I agree with your assessment on Becky that it was NOT good gameplay giving Vanessa the cold shoulder. Another reason I didn’t rank her higher. A big difference in our rankings is where we placed Shelli & Vanessa. I have Shelli ranked higher because I think she’s playing a much more controlled and overall better game IMO. Although if Shelli doesn’t win POV we’ll probably talking about her in the Jury House and will still be ranking Vanessa in the upcoming weeks.

I don’t see why Clay would be embarrassed and need to cover up Meg hanging on him like a cheap coat??? By no means am I a Clay fan, but I thought he handled that as well as can be expected. Once again...that’s just me.

"RE: The gods must be crazy"
Posted by michel2 on 08-10-15 at 09:14 PM
"(James) pretty much gave free rein to the HGs to vote the way they wanted."

I think you must have missed the HOH room talk where he told EVERYONE that they had to evict Shelli or his week would be wasted. Meg and Jackie were also gunning for Shelli and the 6th sense alliance counted for only FOUR votes out of 9 so their block meant nothing. Jackie, Meg, Becky, John and Steve had the numbers to go either way.

You don't listen to the feeds but according to all the reports that I read, the house was determined to evict Shelli.

"RE: The gods must be crazy"
Posted by Aruba on 08-10-15 at 09:25 PM
LAST EDITED ON 08-10-15 AT 09:27 PM (EST)

I thought for sure I heard James say to "vote how you feel." The only two I recall being all gung ho with what James wanted were Meg and Jackie. On the TV telecast I do not remember anything definitive from Steve, Becky or Johnny Mac.

Numerically you are right--the non-Sixth Sense members had the numbers but I have never seen those five as a tight alliance. It's strange to me because we are beyond Day 50...what are they waiting for? As a result, with the four 6th Sense solid for keeping Shelli, it wouldn't be hard for them to get the majority votes needed from the other side. And from what we saw, it became much easier when Clay shot himself in the foot.

"RE: The gods must be crazy"
Posted by kingfish on 08-11-15 at 08:51 AM
I had an internal debate about Vanessa's ranking. If it were totally based on this week's events I would put her lower, but after having witnessed her ability to work the crowd so far this summer, I kept her up there. Even though there is the real possibility that Becky's plan could work.

I think that somehow (maybe the POV competition or ceremony doesn't work out Becky's way?) Vanessa will not go home. She is the best player in the game.

If she does, then I'll lower her ranking to outta here.

But the Clay vote had to be at least a little bit baffling. The sixth sense was divided and crippled with two on the block and at least one of the twins leaning toward a Shelli eviction. Really, only Vanessa and Austin were seemingly a lock for Shelli. And with the HoH pushing for a Shelli vote along with Jackie and the other freaks expressing their support, one would think that the odds favored that.

To me, the only rational explanation was that the vote against Clay solidified after the confrontation between him, Johnny and James, and Vanessa. Which we didn't know of (unless we were watching the feeds) until the following broadcast.

And Clay certainly appeared to me to be embarrassed. Flummoxed.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-10-15 at 05:50 PM
The latest vote was so strange that it makes me wonder if there was any production interference. Before the vote, everyone was talking about getting rid of Shelli then suddenly Clay leaves. What happened? It’s even more disconcerting when you consider that Jackie and Meg went against James’ wishes. Sure, Clay pleaded to get voted out but why did they agree? The fight that they served up last night doesn’t really explain it...unless Clay was actually disqualified for going after James...

What was even more evident was that Shelli KNEW she was safe. You could tell because she was wearing running shoes for the upcoming challenge. A woman, especially a vain one like Shelli, would have been wearing her finest pumps if she thought there was a remote chance she could be meeting Julie and the audience.

Before proceeding, I have two points to make about your list, Aruba. First, the stress you use to denounce Becky as a snitch is hilarious. Do you think it bothers me?! Since I don’t think you are using the noun correctly it was as if you were calling her short! I realized the root cause of your misunderstanding: People do not snitch ON the authorities, they snitch TO the authorities. It’s a crucial difference, the point that makes snitches despicable. In BB, the HOH is the authority of the week so when Jason sold out Austin to Vanessa and Shelli, he was snitching to the authorities. When Becky told Clelli about the new HOH’s plans, she wasn’t snitching but simply informing.

Next, where do you get the idea that: “The Donato Alliance kept things rolling with weekly competition wins.”
##### was HoH in week 3, Danielle in weeks 5 and 7 so, for the first 8 weeks there would have been MORE opportunities to take them out than we have seen for the 6th sense alliance so far. Even when one Donato got the veto, the other could have been taken out. Production made sure they stayed safe... The reason the 6th Sense alliance is in trouble is the bad social game and the transparency of its members. Period.

1- John: A few weeks ago, I wrote that John could become my favorite player ever if he ever got a sense of you was in charge of the game and acted on it. This week, he did a marvelous job, not only sniffing out all of Vanessa’s actions but also exposing her to everyone by talking to Clay who promptly made a mess of the whole situation. The guy is also smart to be close to EVERYONE in the house, including the outsiders like what’shisname. His closeness to Becky should insure that this week puts him in a great position.

2- Becky: She showed that she was a smart player by the way she manipulated Shelli and Vanessa. I bet that they have no idea that she is close to James, Meg and Jackie. Also, while it may cause some jealousy, the prize money in BB is so cheap compared to Survivor that it was brilliant to grab a second $5000. There are so many enemies out there that Becky’s prizes shouldn’t matter. I don’t think she would even get a lot of flak for going after Vanessa. Her only problem is Steve but will he ever be in a position to bother her? Still, I think she should have grabbed Vanessa’s deal for now and settled on Steve as her main target. I wonder how she feels about Johnny Mac. They’d be a cute couple.

3- Jackie: The pace of this game suits her a lot more than the Amazing Race. She took her time early on to study the other players, made some mistakes in judgment but has since corrected them. She is now in the tightest group alliance out there and James should get all the attention when they are not in power.

4- Meg: I laughed out loud when Meg downed one stein of beer after another and when she made that blatant sexual overture to Clay. Her DR sessions and her challenge skills make her truly enjoyable and I think she’s gotten herself in a great position. Seeing her win would be very funny.

5- Liz: I still like the fact that she is using Austin to advance her game even if I wonder how she can stand his smell. I don’t like the fact that she thinks that she can safely skate by. See, contrary to Aruba, I know that there will come a time, well before the F4, that being an obvious pair will be extremely detrimental to the twins so they should start making bonds outside of their alliance immediately.

6- Julia: It seems that BB has chosen the original member of the pair to narrate their story because Julia isn’t given many DR sessions. Maybe they should sit together so that we see more of their interactions. For now, it looks like one would be sufficient.

7- Vanessa: Her emotions have certainly hurt her but I think misreading John cost her much more. Early on he must have looked like a clueless “short stack”, a player not long for the game but he has probably ended her good run by understanding her game. It’s too bad for her because we’ve had so many seasons without a single good player but it’s great for us to see two smart players in actions and how one has completely boxed in the other.

8- Shelli: Like I wrote earlier, I don’t know how she survived but I guess it shows that you don’t need to win comps to stay safe!! With the bad blood between her and Austin, I don’t think the 6th Sense alliance will remain after this week so she could become a floater. I wonder if she can adapt to that situation. I certainly hope that she stops mentioning Clay in each of her DR sessions.

9- James: The guy’s HOH reign didn’t turn out the way he wanted and he is very lucky that Becky chose his side over the other but the target on his back won’t be fading soon. If Clay was going to leave the game, James should have let Shelli have the veto and gone for the $5000 instead. What a waste...

10- Austin: He is starting to look as messy and dirty as a homeless man which is funny considering he has been enjoying free room and board for the last two months. After seeing his half-baked ideas blow up in his face, he has stopped all strategy discussions, happy to be spending time with “his” twin. Good luck with that.

11- Steve: Last Thursday, I was going to ask if there really was a Steve in the house but then it was his turn to vote and that reminded us of why we nicknamed Julie the “Chenbot”. Reading her cue cards, she said something like: “Steve hasn’t chosen a side of the house yet but this vote will force him to do so.” Really Chen? By the time Steve went to the DR it was evident that the vote was going to be unanimous so Steve’s vote showed NOTHING. A less robotic host would have realized that she needed to ad-lib something that made sense instead of reading that card. As for Steve himself, even he agrees that he is a weird little man. His obsession with Becky could ruin a good alliance but he is close to Johnny Mac who could put some sense in that nut.

Evicted - Clay: The mimbo got what we all wanted. What an idiot...

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by kingfish on 08-10-15 at 08:22 PM
"If Clay was going to leave the game, James should have let Shelli have the veto and gone for the $5000 instead."

I don't understand that. James, as HoH, couldn't go for the $5K that was part of the slip and slide challenge whether or not Clay of Shelli left the game.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-10-15 at 09:07 PM
I was talking about the veto challenge. Unless I don't remember correctly, James had last pick, Shelli was wearing the veto crown while Becky had the $5000 crown. James took away the veto crown because he really, really wanted Shelli to leave but then she didn't. He threw away some easy money.

Something in your list I don't understand either: How did James show good leadership skills by changing his vote to Clay since, as HOH, he wasn't allowed to vote? To me, it looked like the house didn't care about James' "leadership".

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by kingfish on 08-10-15 at 11:17 PM
LAST EDITED ON 08-11-15 AT 09:00 AM (EST)

OK, that challenge. You probably remember correctly. But that Veto challenge occurred well before the veto ceremony, before he had any idea that his gang might not go along with the Shelli eviction, before the Clay/James fight, and before Vanessa and Austin exerted their influence in trying to argue for saving Shelli. I doubt very much that he is prescient, and couldn't have known then that Shell was staying. Or else he probably would have chosen the money. A crystal ball would have been helpful for him.

But on the other, my bad. It was a unanimous vote, and I somehow included James in that unanimity. Mind blank is all I can claim there.


"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-11-15 at 05:47 AM
No crystal ball needed: He should have been content that one half of the pair was leaving to enjoy the money.
"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-11-15 at 06:10 AM
It’s all good Kingfish, I knew what you meant. I believe it became apparent to all, including James, that Clay would be evicted before the showmance couple took their seats for Thursday eviction night for all the reasons I stated. Yes, when James initially nominated both he was primarily targeting Shelli, but his intent was to break up the showmance...so mission accomplished in that regard and why you and I included James in the unanimity.

Even without a crystal ball, a deck of tarot cards, or a Zoltar fortune telling machine, James made the right decision to not take the 5K. Why hand over the punishment to a non-Sixth Sense member to get someone else angry at him? And he would have forced himself to name a replacement nominee for Shelli. Putting up a pawn would have infuriated yet another non-Sixth Sense member. Choosing one of the twins would have had Austin, Liz and Julia all three pointing a cannon his way.

Hypothetically I guess Vanessa would have been the “safest” replacement for him, but that would have most certainly sent Jackie on her preannounced “warpath.” And with the number of days between POV and eviction, it’s not inconceivable that Vanessa could have become the evictee. If so, not only does James primary target slip through his fingers, but the showmance stays intact.

So IMHO the little man with the big set made the right decision at POV to keep the nominations the same.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by kingfish on 08-11-15 at 08:58 AM
So it was a choice between risking the basic plan to break up the showmance, or $5K. I agree, James chose wisely.
"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-11-15 at 04:20 PM
What is wiser? A 1 in 12 shot at $500 000 or $5K going directly in your bank account (with still an outside chance at the $500 000)

Considering James' actual position in the game, the certain money would not have been unwise. He is likely going home with nothing.

Anyway, like I wrote below, the ideal scenario would have been to lose the veto in the right position. He could have won the $5K or the trip without creating animosity.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by kingfish on 08-11-15 at 06:04 PM
LAST EDITED ON 08-11-15 AT 06:32 PM (EST)

You and I disagree.

You have it all worked out, except that in order to get the $500,000 (which, BTW, is the object of the game, right? And probably the reason he's there in the first place, right? I mean, you must at least be willing to accept that much.), he has to concentrate on the strategy, both immediate and long term, for getting to that big paycheck, and not let the minor $5K check tempt him into a situation where both power players could stay in the house. His chances at the $1/2 Mill are enhanced if either Clay or Shelli leaves, and he had to keep that as his goal for his HoH.

Besides, I don't understand your odds calc. It isn't I in 12, because someone besides him was going home. By simple numbers means that that was 11-1 at worst. And it isn't even as simple as that if you take into account that several other houseguest seem to be much less likely to survive that he is. He has a better chance at the moment than everyone except maybe John with only Shelli actually and specifically gunning for him, and he seems to be in a good position with a pretty tight alliance. Any of the other alliance might nom him, but his alliance might have a pretty good chance at keeping him, so he could be safe even then.

Anything can happen, and things change, so he could go home. But as long as he's in the game, keeping his eye on the real goal is wiser than letting a minor check along the way endanger it.

IMO, he actually has very good chance of actually winning, and I wouldn't be surprised if he also feels that way. So from his standpoint (and in my opinion) he made a wise choice.

I should say that Becky deserves additional credit than I gave her for recognizing that she could get all three prizes in her HoH competition, including her $5K. She was apparently far enough ahead of the others that she could do that and not risk losing the HoH.

.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-11-15 at 07:13 PM
Our disagreement lies mostly in evaluating James' game. I feel it has been simply horrible so the 1 in 12 chance is simply mathematical. I think his odds are much worse than the numbers suggest. By my present estimation, only Vanessa has worse odds than him.

(I had the numbers at 1 in 11 like you but then I remembered Julie saying: "Going to the jury house doesn't mean that your game is over". Someone will be coming back, making it 1 in 12 again) If he was wise, James would realize that his primary goal is extremely uncertain so a 5K consolation prize isn't that bad.

I also think that Clay would have left even if Shelli had been saved by the veto. James just had to nominate Liz to ensure that Austin and Julia vote with Meg, Becky and Jacky.

Also, don't forget that taking the $5K wouldn't have eliminated him. He would still be in the house.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-11-15 at 08:46 PM
Well said Kingfish. I mean really, everyone should play like they have a good chance to win. It’s hard to get accurate mathematical odds with Julie’s suggestion that someone will come back; and throw in a potential double eviction and anyone’s mathematical chances could increase or decrease in a heartbeat.

That HOH was designed to test how greedy the winner of the competition would be. I’m figuring it took Becky maybe a minute or two to race back and forth and collect the three balls. Does anyone know how long the competition lasted?—I’m thinking it lasted hours. So with that last one or two minute scamper at the end in relation to the hours it took to compete, I think it would have been astronomically inconceivable we have a “photo finish” between two or more players.

Now it would have been interesting if there was, say, a five minute timeout between collecting each ball to really test whether the leader wanted to take the chance of hogging more than one ball. But like I said, I believe it was designed to test the greed of the winner.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-11-15 at 09:22 PM
"everyone should play like they have a good chance to win."

LOL! James stopped doing that the minute he started following Probst's recipe, announcing to everyone that he wasn't afraid of making big moves. That simply killed his chances of winning the game.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-12-15 at 07:08 PM
Natalie in S29 was not shy announcing to everyone she wasn't afraid of making big moves. If memory serves me correct I believe it worked out rather well for her.

But forget Probst...last episode when BB paid a visit to last season's Hitmen, Derrick himself commended and praise James for his move. Isn't that the same Derrick you mentioned several times as one of the best players in BB history???

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-12-15 at 09:43 PM
What??? Your memory is clearly deficient because her first "Big Move" was booting Alec and, instead of announcing it, Natalie lied to Jon and Jaclyn, claiming to have misunderstood the instructions regarding the split vote plan, which they believed.

Her next big move was to get rid of Jon and she shared the blame for that with Baylor and Missy. During the game, Natalie kept a very low profile until it was time to strike. She was able to claim her moves only during FTC when she had her two goats.

As for Derrick's comments, they are meaningless because his segment was used to promote the season and it is much too early to call. Many people praised Vanessa early on (including us) and look at the mess she's in now! It's a really hard game to play when you play to win HOH.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-13-15 at 07:48 PM
Nothing wrong with my memory, but I'm touched by your concern.

I did not note a specific time when Natalie made everyone aware of her big moves...my point being the Jury members where made aware of them BEFORE they voted for the winner. Granted Jaclyn and Missy were not what I regard as great players of the game, but I would not put them in the "goat" category either.

Fact of the matter the Jury was not bitter that season and voted for the player who played the best game and made the big moves Natalie was not shy to share despite how you may wish to spin it.

I agree having former players make cameo appearances is to promote the season, but they do not need to give praise as a form of promotion. Case in point: BB11 season several former HGs came back to share their insight and BOTH Janelle and D!ck ripped Jeff for his ignorance and horrible game decisions. Julie then asked D!ck who he thought was playing the best game. Prefaced by his patented smirk and eye roll he answered if you're going to force me to pick a name I'll say Kevin...but that's not saying much.

Once again, praise need not be given for promotion. Derrick appropriately commended James for his game move that clearly changed the course of the season.

Vanessa is in the mess she's in because she's far too emotional and she's spreading herself WAAAAY too thin in the House; not because she won HOHs.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-14-15 at 06:06 AM
LAST EDITED ON 08-14-15 AT 06:25 PM (EST)


Ha Ha! By FTC, Natalie couldn't be voted out, could she?! James certainly still can.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-10-15 at 09:14 PM
My explanation as to why I am not perplexed by the turn of events is in my reply to Kingfish’s post so no need to repeat here.

In last week’s post I was very precise with my understanding of snitching when I defined it as an informant. I’m sure Webster would agree with that definition as well. I also have a complete understanding of the concept of snitching: you snitch ON someone or a group TO someone else or another group. It’s not an either/or proposition. When snitching TO the authorities, you are snitching ON someone. Well I’m glad I was able to clear up the root of YOUR misunderstanding. *wink* *wink*

Where did I get the “idea” of the Donatos winning? First off I said “competitions;” meaning not just HOH but POV comps as well. The “idea” generates from my ability to perform basic math. In nine out of the 11 weeks that season a Donato accounted for at least one competition win, and in two of those nine weeks they won BOTH the HOH and POV comp. So let’s replace “idea” with statistical facts. Math class adjorned. I'll throw another "wink" at ya cuz I luv ya, Man! LOL

On your Jackie assessment you are right that James will be perceived as the head of the snake from the other side of the House. And after this week Becky may even be a bigger fish to fry. All of which is very much to Jackie’s benefit. Plus from what I’ve been watching she seems to be commendable with her performance in the competitions. I would have never thunk it two weeks into the season, but she’s in very good position now.

Great call with your assessment on Vanessa. We’ve had many seasons where not a single HG was worth a lick and this season we have a few who I would regard as impressive players.

In fairness to James when do you think he knew the tide turned and Clay would be leaving the game? Before POV??? How many days in “real time” are there between the POV and live eviction? If it’s the same as TV time (one day) then you may have a point that he could have been on to the fact that Shelli would be spared. Even so, if he took the 5K he would have handed the punishment to Becky. How do you think Becky would have felt about that?! James already has the Sixth Sense gunning for him...swapping the punishment with Becky for her 5K could have made another HG unhappy with him.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-10-15 at 09:38 PM
LAST EDITED ON 08-10-15 AT 09:44 PM (EST)

Snitching is selling someone out to the authorities. You can't possibly think that warning victims is as despicable.


Winning veto only saved one Donato. There were still many occasions to eliminate one or the other. But I suggest we let BB 8 return to the ashes.

There are many days between POV and eviction. I think POV is actually run on the Saturday. With that clarification, I meant that it was futile to be so determined to see Shelli go. James would have been leaving the game with $5K in his pocket which is better than what he will get.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-10-15 at 09:48 PM
WOW, I was unaware that many days are between POV and eviction. At that point I can understand why James was still dead set on wanting Shelli gone at POV.

I not sure 5K in his pocket would have been worth a very unhappy Becky having to complete the punishment. Of course he couldn't have known it then, but with Becky now HOH it may have been the best 5K he never had!

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-11-15 at 05:50 AM
But, like I have always said: He could have had the 5K without any anger from Becky if he had LOST the competition! She won it by losing but then again, unlike James, she wasn't dead set against Shelli.
"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-11-15 at 06:18 AM
Becky had the last shot in the POV so it was really hers (not James) to "lose" Also if the POV was used, James would have had to name a replacement nominee--something that would NOT have been in James best interest at that stage of the game.
"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-11-15 at 04:24 PM
With or without last shot, James could have gotten a big fat zero and lost the competition at any time.

I'm not really talking about James' game (which stinks anyway) but his bank account. Afterall, they are there to make money. $5K isn't a bad pay day, probably much better than what he will get.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-11-15 at 07:04 PM
Frankly I don't give a rat's poop about James bank account...I'm taking about the game. Any scenario where the nominations would NOT stay the same and force James to choose a replacement nom is not a good situation for him. The only way for James to guarantee the nominations stay the same is to proactively take matters in his own hands and win it himself.

The format of the last POV made it extremely difficult to purposely lose without making it obvious you were throwing it. It appears James has a good thing going at the moment aligning with Jackie and Meg. Would he want to risk fracturing that bond if either or both of those girls suspected he was throwing the comp?

Final note: Historically winning money can be a kiss of death in this game. I don't recall her name, but the female HG on Hayden's team in BB12 who won the money in the first HOH became public enemy #1 and when voted off a week or two later the players cited her greed as the reason her game ended early.

I know you don't like discussing BB8 but when D!ck won the POV, removed Danielle, and Dustin became the replacement most forget what Dustin did the week before. As HOH he nominated Jen, the irritating emotional train wreck who was a guaranteed evictee unless she was removed from the block. Dustin had the POV won and would have kept the noms the same eliminating Jen, but became a greedy oink oink and went for the money decreasing his score and ultimately resulted in Jen coming off the block.

This infuriated most of the House and the following week, sitting next to D!ck, Dustin paid the ultimate price for his greed. No doubt you'll be quick to trump these historical happenings with your handy dandy conspiracy card...but I'm used to it.

Those are two of many examples when a player who took the money saw their game end prematurely soon after. It's yet to be seen if we'll hear any HGs cite Becky's winnings as a reason if/when she is evicted this season.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-11-15 at 08:36 PM
James certainly has to think about his bank account so we should also when considering what they are thinking and doing. Anyway, he himself told us the money was very tempting so you can't dismiss the possibility. I just think the upcoming events will prove that it would have been wiser.

As for throwing the competition, even Shelli scored a zero in her last round and she certainly wasn't throwing it. James could have done the same.

I'm done talking about BBHate but of course taking money has ended many players' game. That's why I say that it's never good to win individual rewards in BB and Survivor. Thank you for making my point. By playing the "TV game", telling everyone that he isn't afraid of making big moves, James has painted himself in a corner so he should think of cutting his losses. Don't forget, he could have bargained that veto with Shelli, gaining some recognition from that side of the house.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-11-15 at 08:48 PM
I'm sorry Michel, but you lost me with your last statement...

"Don't forget, he could have bargained that veto with Shelli, gaining some recognition from that side of the house."


"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-11-15 at 09:18 PM
If James had let Shelli keep the veto crown, it would have reduced the animosity between them. James could even have tried to make a deal out of it if he hadn't been so stupid as to say that his word meant nothing in the game.
"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-12-15 at 06:52 PM
Attempting to strike a deal with Shelli around POV time would have been insanely stupid on James part. First of all with POV conducted on the weekend, it's doubtful the tide turned to Clay as the primary target that early in the week.

I'm certain anything behind the scenes he would try to work out with Shelli would have gotten back to the non-Sixth Sense HGs he was beginning to align with.

There's also the task of having to name a replacement nomination. The smart approach at that time was to keep the nominations the same.

We could go back and forth on whether James is in a decent position right now to contend for the win or not.

We all could go up and down the remaining 11 players and make convincing points that each of the 11 have little to no chance to win. And you know what?--each and every one of us would be correct on 10 out of the 11 giving us all a 91% chance of saying, "I told you so" when the season is over. LOL

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-12-15 at 07:04 PM
With these players, striking deals is the easiest thing in the world to do. There's been more alliances created and discarded than ever before so no, James wouldn't have been out of line to try one with Shelli during the POV. It would have earned him $5K and everyone would have moved on to new targets by now. The targets seem to change by the hour.
"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-12-15 at 07:49 PM
Well we definitely agree to disagree on this one.

Enjoy the next two episodes. Maybe by Thursday evening we'll see if James' actions (or non-actions) hung himself or if it improves his position.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-12-15 at 09:30 PM
LAST EDITED ON 08-12-15 AT 09:31 PM (EST)

How do you propose we do that? If he doesn't get evicted during Thursday's DE, will that prove that he could have taken the $5K?

We could say that he stayed safe because he didn't take the money OR we could equally say that he wasn't the biggest target so he could have risked taking it! He'd have to get evicted to prove that he would have been better served taking the $5K but that will depend on the next HOH.

My point is that James made a really bad game decision by going for the biggest move possible. That should hurt him in the LONG RUN, not neccessarily this week...especially considering that Becky caught the big move bug!

Big moves are good when you can pin them on someone else. Take Survivor China where Amanda got a lot of the blame for booting James when it had been Todd's idea since before the merge. Or Rafe who managed to put all the blame on Steph for booting Jamie and Judd. I simply can't understand players wanting everyone to know that the big move was their responsibility and theirs alone! I guess they've never heard of bitter jurors! Maybe they WANT to prove that juries are bitter.

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by Aruba on 08-13-15 at 07:57 PM
The difference between James and Becky’s big move was James went right for his targets without pussyfooting around with any cowardly backdoor crap. Becky’s intent was to backdoor all along and she showed her arrogance in her refusal to even hear Vanessa out when she was trying to propose a deal; James listened to whatever came his way.

As I stated before, if you’re talking about LONG RUN effect every one of us will be correct 10 out of 11 times when critiquing the remaining players. For me I’d like to see if James can solidify the alliance created by his big move and perhaps parlay that into some other side alliances. That’s where I’m going when I said let’s see in the upcoming episodes how this all pans out for James. That's how I "propose we do that."

Tony took ownership for every big move he made in S28 and, like Natalie, was rewarded for playing the best game and making the big moves. Not only have I heard of bitter juries, I’m keenly aware of what a bitter Jury is and pathetically we witness them from time to time. I’m just thankful they are not like that EVERY season.

Well so much for this thread. I thank Kingfish and yourself for some more spirited discussion. To be continued with the next list!

"RE: Love/Loathe List BB17 #7"
Posted by michel2 on 08-14-15 at 06:37 PM
LAST EDITED ON 08-14-15 AT 07:21 PM (EST)

I won't disgree with you about Becky's foolish HOH reign but James wasn't better. As for side alliances, this season has been full of them so James could work with the Austwins for a while and then seee them flip on him! Nothing is stable this season which makes for an interesting game even if we are left with a lot of passive players.

I told you that you are wrong about Natalie who NEVER announced her intention of making big moves DURING the game but you do have apoint about Tony. The cop was allowed to get away with it ONLY because Krass made a DUMBER big move, Woo was a dumbass and Trish had a huge case of Stockholm Syndrome! Contrary to James, Tiny didn't say he was out to make big moves: He kept telling everyone that he was done making big moves and would be honest the rest of the way. Still, Tony's style of game play isn't recommended to say the least!