URL: http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi
Forum: DCForumID2
Thread Number: 1165
[ Go back to previous page ]
Original Message
"Official Picks To The End Thread.............."
Posted by Superman on 04-05-01 at 05:23 AM
By popular demand, here it is; The PTTE. This is kinda different than our weekly vote and therefore has a different set of rules.

RULES:

1. DO NOT POST TO THIS THREAD UNTIL YOU HAVE READ THE RULES.

2. Post your PTTE in the subject line in single letter by first name format.

For example: If you think that the boot order will be Ep10 Nick, Ep11 Rodger, Ep12 Colby, Ep13 Elizabeth, Ep14 Amber, Ep15 Keith, WINNER Tina; your subject line would read: N/R/C/E/A/K/T.

3. Post only once to this thread. This is for bragging rights, nothing else. If you miss one, tough, you were wrong, that's life, no new post for you, just edit the message text and put your new order there, don't re-post.

4. Type your reasoning in the message box. If possible, don't use pics. I feel like the thread will be long enough, without that sort of thing slowing it down. If you have NO reasoning or BAD reasoning (i.e. Amber is hot so she will win), don't post any reasoning.

You don't have to tell us why you think the boot will go this way, but don't expect to get alot of credit if you don't use logic. (We'll all point accusingly and call you a lucky guesser.)

5. If it comes to the point that everyone has posted their PTTE and the thread is getting buried, I'll give it a bump. Authorized bumpers will be me and AK. (How 'bout it AK? Note to AK: I figure it will be OK as long as it doesn't leave page 2, whaddya think?)

6. REPLY TO THIS POST.

7. No biting, hiting, pulling hair, cheating, stealing, nose-picking, back-stabbing, smoking, worm-eating, poop-smacking, brown-nosing or any other crime you might read on a school bus rules list.


If neccessary, a discussion thread can be started on the PTTE, most likely on the fanatics board. Just request it, if you want it. Any other suggestions for this thread let me know, post them here: http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1161.shtml

Happy picking, everyone!

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"K / N / C / A / E / T"
Posted by VampKira on 04-05-01 at 06:04 AM
Pokin'and hopin'

----------------------------------------
"There's a sucker born every minute at Transylvania Maternity hospital."

***GO NICK***KEEP A LOW(ER) PROFILE!!***

"RE: K / N / C / A / E / T"
Posted by HomeBrewer on 04-05-01 at 11:58 AM
???
"whoops... R?"
Posted by HomeBrewer on 04-05-01 at 11:59 AM
Sorry. Just looking for Rodger..
"C/N/R/K/T/A/L"
Posted by Ogaalltheway on 04-05-01 at 11:37 AM
First of all, I love the cowboy, but I think his screen time is just about up and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go this week.

Then, Lizzie goes on the immunity streak that's been rumored, so the former Ogies ban together to oust Nick, then Rodger.

At this point, it becomes K/T vs. L vs. A. I don't think that L/A will have an alliance, but they will play smart and oust Keith first, due to previous votes against. Tina wins immunity here, and K/T vote for Amber, and L/A vote for Keith. Tina and Liz do not change their votes in the revote, and the chef goes to the ranch, where he can save a seat for his sister, as Tina gets the vote in the last eppy. Liz will win immunity and, though she likes Tina, will vote her out because Tina is more of a threat to beat her in a final vote then Amber. Seriously, I could only see Jerri voting fo Amber if it comes to L/A.

I don't base this on the HTML spoiler or anything like that. Just my gut from reading all the info that's out there, trying to dissect what's fact/fiction/fantasy. I also don't believe Jerri's quote about her saying something to Tina at the end. That to me, if true, signals that Tina reaches final four, but gets her torch snuffed before the final two.

"N/K/R/C/L/A/T"
Posted by C_Master on 04-05-01 at 11:47 AM
Nick is gone. Colby wins IC which is why Keith is gone before him, losing to Liz in a 3-3 vote. Liz wins IC so Rodger is gone in a 3-2 vote. Liz wins IC again...Colby is outta there in a 2-2 vote with Amber. Tina wins IC and takes Amber with her to the final 2. And the winner is....Tina.
"N / C / R / K / T / E / A"
Posted by HomeBrewer on 04-05-01 at 11:53 AM
I do not like the source code spoiler, because it kills this list, but I just do not like the lack of Amber/Elisableth news since the show was filmed. How else can one explain the apparent rift between Jerri and Amber, unless she is in the final two.
"N/R/K/T/C/A/L"
Posted by nailbone on 04-05-01 at 12:05 PM
Nick goes this week, being the strongest Kucha. Liz begins the IC run this week (back to block tribal votes, Amber convinces L and R to go for Keith rather than Colby as payback for Jerri's vote-off - 4 Nick, 2 Keith, 1 Colby).

Then Liz still on her IC run, so Rodger goes next(still tribal votes, Liz and Rodger go with Keith again - 4 Rodger 2 Keith). In the meantime, Colby maintains his alliance with Amber and they work to join with Liz.

Liz is still on the run, new C/A/L alliance takes hold, Keith goes - 3 Keith, 2 Colby.

Without her alliance buddy, Tina goes next (3 Tina, 1 Colby).

Girls eliminate Colby.

Liz, having pissed off no one, gets the $$$$$.

"N/C/A/K/R/T/E"
Posted by e4c5 on 04-05-01 at 12:28 PM
n/m
"N/K/C/T/R/A/E"
Posted by RASH on 04-05-01 at 12:41 PM
LIKE HER FIANCE' WON'T MAKE ENOUGH IN THE NFL!
"N/C/R/E/T/A/K"
Posted by Loree on 04-05-01 at 01:51 PM
I don't believe in the spoiler code saying Amber/Liz in the final. I think it will be Amber & Keith with Keith beating her in a 4/3 vote.

I think it is obvious that Nick goes tonight. Then next week I think Colby is going to seem too dangerous to keep around for everyone. So they vote him out. Then they get rid of Rodger (MadDog friend) and the next week they have to vote out Liz (makes final 4). It's then down to T/A/K. Amber wins immunity and she takes Keith to the final thinking he is more unlikeable than Tina. But it backfires on her (shades of Kelly) and Keith wins it.

Some of the reasoning might not be quite right. But I do think this will be the order. The weight loss and other stories about Tina in People & Rodger in the rain & Amber lying low just give me this inkling. (crossing fingers)

"N / C / A / K / R / T / L"
Posted by Bruddah Max on 04-05-01 at 02:13 PM
Ep. 10 NICK goes this week, pretty certain of it.

Ep. 11 COLBY goes when Kieth / Tina / Rodger / Liz GGA™ alliance kicks in.

Ep. 12 AMBER goes because she is not in the GGA™. sorry, thanks for playing.

Ep. 13 KIETH goes because it's either him or Rodger, and an immunity challenge threat to the gals.

Then RODGER goes because Liz wins this immunity and has to pick the other one that goes into the final 2 - she knows she will lose against Rodger and goes with Tina - this is why she has told friends not to watch, methinks. This move effectively screws Kentucky Joe out of $100,000.

And finally TINA loses the final tribal council Jury vote because there is no brillianly deviant Greg Buis around to reduce everything to "pick a number between one and ten" this time.

LIZ wins because she should, dammit. Because a cute pink-wearing blonde gal is funny, but what's even more funny is a cute pink-wearing blonde gal with a million dollars.

"RE: Official Picks To The End Thread.............."
Posted by skierdude10 on 04-05-01 at 02:26 PM
n/c/r/e/t/A-K

since i don't have the time to explain I will just say that my explination is VERY long. That is all. Also K and T are interchangeable.

"N / R / C / L / K / T / A"
Posted by Play2Survive on 04-05-01 at 02:54 PM
Nick goes this week - 4-3 vote.

Liz wins immunity so Rodger goes in a 4-2 vote.

Colby is a threat and goes whether or not Liz wins immunity. But she probably does. It's a landslide 4-1 decision.

Now down to L/K/T/A, MB gets a good laugh when he proves his source code spoiler was just a clever gag. Liz is nearly impossible to beat in a Final 2, so the other three let America's sweetheart go. Vote is 3-1.

Keith knows he's in trouble and must win immunity. This is built up and we think he's actually going to get it, but NO, it's Tina. She opts for Amber instead of Keith to join her in the final. This proves to be a very expensive mistake.

The tribal jury is intense and we discover that there is animosity toward Tina from more than just Jerri. The jury has been chatting with some of the non-jury players and Tina is starting to smell like a rat. Amber, sweet little Amber, is starting to look like a winner from nothing but pure dumb luck. The vote is close - 4-3 - with Nick taking the Greg Buis role (which is why he's been played down so much).

Amber is the choice of Jerri, Alicia and Colby
Tina is the choice of Keith, Liz and Rodger
Nick, having heard Tina's behind-the-scenes negative bad press, casts the deciding vote for Amber.

Since Amber and Tina don't know who won they're asked to keep a low profile. Amber, it turns out, is so terrified of winning and having to do Rich Hatch interviews for Survivor 3, that she runs away and hides out in the Montana mountains. She is there now, wandering around lost. Producers are currently on a wild doof chase trying to find her and hoping her disappearance doesn't get leaked. Will they find her?

"N/R/C/E/T/K(?)/A(?)"
Posted by AyatollahKhomeini on 04-05-01 at 02:59 PM
Two changes here -- one, I now believe that the Boston Herald must have some kind of inside source and have switched the positions of Colby and Liz. This means Liz must win two straight ICs (in E11 and E12), or she'd be gone. In E12 I now picture Keith and Liz voting for Colby, Colby and Amber voting for Keith, and Tina making Colby into the most stunned person in the Outback by voting him out of the tribe. Second, in the final, I now see Keith getting votes from Nick, Rodger and Tina, Amber getting votes from Alicia, Jerri, and Colby, and Liz as the swing vote, who swings it to ... Amber.

More changes may be forthcoming -- stay tuned.

A note to e4c5 -- should we be calling you "Dragon"?

"N/R/L/A/K/C/T"
Posted by ItzLisa on 04-05-01 at 04:09 PM
Aaaaand we'll see what happens!


**************************************
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about???

"N/A/C/E/T/K/R"
Posted by kuchakor on 04-05-01 at 04:15 PM
I dunno...lol. Just following with the GGA, and doing some wishful thinking!
"CONSENSUS THUS FAR"
Posted by Play2Survive on 04-05-01 at 04:44 PM
I'm taking the liberty to tally the predictions thus far so that we can make some sense of what we all think - otherwise we're just staring at a pile of convoluted letters. Adding the number corresponding to the predicted finish of each player, I have come up with a score for each player. We have ranked the players in the following order thus far (with the final three neck-and-neck-and-neck):

7th Place - 14 (Nick):
7th: 12 votes
6th: 1 vote

6th Place - 38 (Colby):
7th: 1 vote
6th: 5 votes
5th: 4 votes
4th: 1 vote
3rd: 1 vote
2nd: 1 vote

5th Place - 41 (Rodger):
6th: 4 votes
5th: 5 votes
3rd: 3 votes
1st: 1 vote

4th Place - 59 (Keith):
6th: 2 votes
5th: 1 vote
4th: 4 votes
3rd: 2 votes
2nd: 2 votes
1st: 2 votes

2nd Place - 69 (Liz) - tie with Amber:
5th Place: 1 vote
4th Place: 5 votes
3rd Place: 1 vote
2nd Place: 1 vote
1st Place: 5 votes

2nd Place - 69 (Amber) - tie with Liz:
6th Place: 1 vote
5th Place: 2 votes
4th Place: 1 vote
2nd Place: 6 votes
1st Place: 3 votes

1st Place - 70 (Tina)
4th Place: 2 votes
3rd Place: 6 votes
2nd Place: 3 votes
1st Place: 2 votes

I'll update this again when we get more contributions.

- P2S

"N/C/T/R/K/A/E"
Posted by Krautboy on 04-05-01 at 04:55 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-01 AT 06:40 PM (EST)

Nick goes in EP10, as discussed. Amber switches sides to improve her chances of getting to the final 3. Colby loses tie-breaker in EP11. Tina has no "previous votes" and is targeted by A/L/R. Tina goes in EP12. Keith wins immunity in EP13 and Rodger goes. Liz "kicks butt" an the most important challenge and wins IC. Keith is gone in EP14. Amber and Liz are the final 2. Tina votes for Liz over Amber because "she has the right kind of heart and spirit". Liz wins by 4-3 on live TV. America "likes the ending". "Go Kucha!".

"N/C/K/A/R/T/L"
Posted by cass12 on 04-05-01 at 05:08 PM
Ep 10 - Colby immunity, Nick goes (4-3)
L/R/N- Colby C/T/K/A- Nick

Ep 11 - Liz immunity, Amber joins Kucha allaince, plays Colby's game that she is voting for Liz, and sends him packing.
(3-3 tie, but goes with previous votes)
L/R/A- Colby C/T/K- Liz

Ep 12 - Liz is on a roll, wins immunity again. Keith is gone.
(3-1)
L/R/A- Keith T/K-Amber

Ep 13 - Liz wins again. Amber is gone. (3-1)
L/R/T- Amber A-Rodger

Ep 14 - Tina wins immunity forcing Liz to vote for Rodger. He
is gone. (2-1)
L/T - Rodger (Tina would rather go up against Liz)
R- Tina

Liz VS Tina
Liz wins

Alicia - Liz
Jerri - Liz (Knows Tina stabbed her in the back)
Nick - Liz
Colby - Tina
Keith - Tina
Amber - Tina
Rodger - Liz

"RE: N/C/K/A/R/T/L"
Posted by nailbone on 04-06-01 at 01:06 PM
Ep 11 - Liz immunity, Amber joins Kucha allaince, plays Colby's game that she is voting for Liz, and sends him packing.
(3-3 tie, but goes with previous votes)
L/R/A- Colby C/T/K- Liz

If Liz has immunity, she can't get any votes.......

"RE: N/C/K/A/R/T/L"
Posted by cass12 on 04-09-01 at 10:07 AM
Thanks for catching that Nailbone. Clearly a mental slip on my part!!! Let's sub the voting for Liz to Rodger.
"C->K->A->N->R->T->L"
Posted by Harbinger1 on 04-05-01 at 05:22 PM
Colby out first because I am not convinced Amber has more than a few pebbles upstairs and with what little we've seen of her, I wouldn't be surprised to see her act out of emotion instead of logic.

Vote: C 4, N 3

Keith out next regardless of whether Amber realizes her mistake (or is patronizingly informed by Tina). L/R/N know Keith has votes against him and A/T/K can't stop them. If Ep10 happens like this, the only thing that would prevent this is Keith winning IC and hard to imagine him winning it a third time.

Vote: K 3, N 3

Amber gets her airheaded reward by being voted out the next week. This won't even be close and only an IC win would prevent it.

Vote: A 4, N? 1

Final Four: Nick, Rodger, Tina, Elizabeth.

Nick then goes out because Tina's ties to Elizabeth are stronger than Nick. Even if Rodger voted for Tina, Nick has so many votes against him by this point. An IC win by Nick would logically prevent this, which would change the order to T->R->N->L.

Vote: N 3, T 1

Rodger goes out because both Tina and Elizabeth know that he would get the votes for him head-to-head against either of the others. Rodger could pick up the IC win but only in the long shot hope its primarily mental. Likely Elizabeth will win and Rodger accepts her choosing Tina.

Vote: L chooses T

Tina loses to Elizabeth in the Jury vote because Tina has made enemies left and right whereas Elizabeth has moreorless made competitors.

Vote: For L - R, N, Al, Am, J; For T - C, K

"K/C/T/A/R/N/L"
Posted by MC_Hampster on 04-05-01 at 05:32 PM
Ep. 10 Amber joins Kucha alliance, but Colby wins immunity, so Keith, with the most votes, goes.

Ep. 11 Kucha kicks off Colby.

Ep. 12 Kucha kicks off Tina to finish off Ogakor alliance.

Ep. 13 Say bye-bye to Amber when Kucha sticks together. Only chance here is for Amber to win immunity.

Ep. 14 Kucha must turn on itself. Nick would have to go, but wins immunity. Nick picks Rodger thinking that he stands a better chance against him.

Final Episode Elizabeth wins in voting by popularity.

"C/N/R/T/L/A/K"
Posted by Tyler_Durden on 04-05-01 at 05:34 PM
Probably Nick 2nite but......

Ep10: Colby cuz he's the laziest by far
Ep11: Nick cuz he's the trade for Colby
Ep12: Rodger cuz the rain stopped
Ep13: Tina cuz Lis won Immunity again
Ep14: Lis cuz K won Immunity and took A with him
Keith wins 4-3
C/N/R/T: Keith
J/A/L: Ambot

"N/C/R/A/T/K/L"
Posted by sleeeve on 04-05-01 at 05:56 PM
Ep10: Nick
Kucha targets Colby, with hopes of an Amber defection, but...
Colby allies with Amber, and Ogakor votes together.
(Lizzie wins IC???)
Nick was the target last week, and now he says goodbye...
C/T/K/A vote Nick, N/L/R vote Colby

Ep11: Colby
Next Ogie target is little Lizzy. But she wins immunity, beginning to kick butt in the challenges, so the target becomes Rodger...
Until Tina decides that she and Keith would rather be allied with Lizzy and Rodger, forming the famed Good Guys Alliance (GGA).
(I've given up on my T/C secret alliance... as much as I like it, I have to account for the Vegas Conversation, and Colby's gotta go!!!)
Colby is voted out in a shocker, and might even say "when you can outsmart a Texan..." (Okay, maybe not, but it would be interesting if the Ryanbbbbbbbbbbs spoiler proved true... I still think it's just speculation.)
T/K/L/R vote Colby, A/C vote Rodger

Ep12: Rodger
Liz continues to kick booty in challenges (winning IC), and cementing her spot in the final four. (The Boston Herald is heralded as a great source for spoilers... okay... that was a really bad pun)
Amber is the supposed target of the famed GGA, but the GGA lasts a grand total of 1 episode, as...
T/K realize that if it becomes 2-2, they are in danger due to Keith's past votes (Lizzie has only two (Ep 9) and Rodger has zero), so they must eliminate Rodger.
Rodger leaves at the end of the rainy season (weather tracker) and tells his kids about it.
T/K/A vote Rodger, L/R vote Amber.

Ep13: Amber
Liz recruits Amber, and the two of them plan to target Keith, with his 3 past TC votes... But Keith wins IC, ending Lizzie's immunity run...
So they must target Tina (who has no past TC votes)...
L/A vote Tina, K/T vote Amber... TIE
Tiebreak: Lizzie votes Tina, Keith votes Amber
Amber loses on past votes. (Two from ep. 12)
The Source Code is a Red Herring... America is convinced that MB gave us both Lizzie and Amber to throw us off, so everyone is convinced of a T/K final two, until...

Ep14: Tina
In the final episode, Lizzie kicks butt one last time in the challenges, and gets to pick her opposition for the final round.
She feels she will have a better chance against Keith, and, besides, she watched the opening credits and saw the photo morphs.
Tina is voted out and returns to the ranch dirty and hungry, but does not have time to eat or shower (she'll do that when she gets home, according to her husband), because the very next day is...

Final Jury
Each jury member asks a question or gives a speech. Tina tells the jury about Keith's loyalty, but that he played the game well. He won immunity when he needed to and he Outwitted, Outplayed, and Outlasted everyone... Then Jerri gets to speak, and she attacks Keith (and his lawyer, Tina... hence the comments about Jerri and Tina on the jury)... After more manipulation by the great MB, each jury member leaves TC in the order they were booted. They cast their vote, and leave through the main area, never to return... Only Keith and Lizzie will know the winner, since the others will be gone...
Alicia: Liz (Go Kucha!)
Jerri: LiZ (She hates Keith, who Kan't Kook, and he was also responsible for her ejection)
Nick: Liz (His loyal tribemate, who looks a lot hotter in a bikini than Keith does.)
Colby: Keith (He does not blame the chef for his ouster, but respects the way he played the game.)
Rodger: Liz (Are these two as close as they appear on the show? According to Jeff, they're even closer!)
Amber: Keith (After she left for the ranch, she discovered Jerri had a new pal, Alicia, and didn't want to give her the time of day any more, after all, her loyalty is no longer needed. After Jerri's speech, Amber votes Keith, out of spite)
Tina: Keith (She'll stick to her speech.)

Runner Up: Keith
Winner: Liz
(Source Code Spoiler half true, so once it was proved wrong, Liz would seem to be the least likely choice as winner... where is the best place to hide the truth??? Amongst the lies!!)

"R/K/C/N/T/A/L"
Posted by 5Foot3 on 04-05-01 at 06:12 PM
for now anyways it will probably change every week and towards the last couple episodes everyday...
"N/K/R/L/A/T/C"
Posted by idiotcowboy on 04-05-01 at 06:59 PM
ep10 Nick goes down... as expected

ep11 Lis wins IC, and Amber swings the Keith removal... in a "shocker".

ep12 Lis wins IC and Rodger goes down

ep13 Lis almost wins IC... but doesn't and is gone, Colby wins RC and get to shave.

ep14 Colby wins IC for the first time and picks Tina to go against... Colby wins $$$ on (4-3) vote

betting heavy on the field guide rope climbing picture (it just doesn't belong in context with EVERYTHING else in the silly book!)... that it's Colby... it's the final 3's 'right of passage'... and it's in there because he wins!

"N / R / L / C / T / A / K"
Posted by IceCat on 04-05-01 at 09:43 PM
Details to follow...
"N_C_K_R_T_L_A"
Posted by StratPlayer on 04-05-01 at 09:55 PM
I think R/L/A/T will be the four. Reasons

1- I think R/L/A will unite. Tina makes the final four because she will likely win an IC.

2- MB wants it that way. Who can deny that likeable characters and nice looking young girls would help ratings? The three babes and the old guy theory.

3- I give no credit to the Cassablanca spoiler that says Keith goes farther than Roger.

4- Friends spoilers support my order to some extent.

5- See the excelent post by Survivor Dawg "The Path To Victory: Spoilers & Analysis"


What happens in the final four is very much due to luck. I give T/L/A the best chance.

"C/K/T/R/A/E"
Posted by Mitrelleum on 04-06-01 at 02:46 AM

1.COLBY-This would be a good time for Amber to switch up with Kucha, and with their desperate situation Kucha has no reason to back down, as the plan will guarantee them final three, providing they vote for Colby or Keith, at least the first round. Either Colby or Keith are sure to lose a tie. This is the only and absolutely best way to beat the K/T/C alliance.
2.KEITH-For the same reasons as Colby, barring immunity of course.
3.TINA-It was difficult for me to place Tina because she and Keith are in a similar position. I chose Keith first for several reasons.
a)Amber may have more animosity towards him than Tina.
b)Keith has won two immunity challenges, and continues to be a huge threat.
c)Putting Tina at fourth place verifies the 3 female/1 male final four theory. (Although I don't believe that they will hang around naked on the beach like the camera guy says).
4.RODGER-Supporting the statement that Liz kicks butt at challenges, I believe it is highly possible that she will win this challenge. She would have to realize that voting off Rodger would be her best chance at winning, since it's likely several Ogakor will favor her over Amber. I do, however, believe Rodger will understand. If I am correct, as others have noted, this will also support the supposed "Don't watch the show" statement that Liz has been credited with saying.
Finally, I choose LIZ to win over AMBER.
Simply because, it is very possible that at least one Ogakor will get her vote, and if she has 3 fellow Kuchas on her side, and I'm sure she will, one will be all she needs.
Whew! My longest post ever...
Mitre.
P.S. Thanks to SB for allowing a page where I can freely and intelligently put in my two cents without worrying about getting flamed for it!
This site is absolutely the best!
"RE: Official Picks To The End Thread.............."
Posted by Superman on 04-06-01 at 02:59 AM
Still in the running:

C_master
Home Brewer
Nailbone
e4c5
RASH
Loree
Bruddah Max
skierdude
P2S
AK
ItzLisa
Kuchakor
Krautboy
cass12
sleeeve
idiotcowboy
IceCat
stratplayer

"E/R/C/A/K/T"
Posted by Dorgor on 04-06-01 at 03:09 AM
Just a guess.
"As posted weeks ago: A-J-N-C-R-K-T-A-L"
Posted by SurvivinDawg on 04-06-01 at 06:42 AM
As I posted BEFORE Alicia was booted: Alicia => "J.R." Jerri => "Legal Eagle" Nick => The Colbster => Kentucky Joe => Keith => Benedict Orange Tina => Lamber => LisLisJustIsIs.

*** Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

Save the drama for yo mama, and PREDICT!

"N / C / T / K / R / A / L"
Posted by Bebo on 04-06-01 at 07:26 AM
Even though I've posted Fri. am, I had Nick correct for last night (just check the weekly vote if you doubt me).

E11 - K/C/T target Amber, Amber joins L/R to stay in the game and they vote for Colby unless he wins immunity, Keith otherwise. 3-3 tie, Colby(or Keith) out on previous votes.

E12 - Tina goes before Keith, since she has no votes against her and could be Amber or Lis if the final four vote split 2-2.

E13 - Bye Keith.

E14 - Time for Rodger to go. Maybe Amber had made them promise to take her to the final 2 in exchange for joining them in a vote against Colby.

Final vote - Lis beats Amber 4-3, when jealous Jerri does her black widow and kills her mate by voting for Lis over her buddy Amber, all other votes follow tribal lines.

"C/R/K/E/T/A"
Posted by aymelek on 04-06-01 at 08:26 AM
just a guess...
"N/C/R/L/A/K/T"
Posted by Annadad on 04-06-01 at 09:19 AM
I'm a little late on the first one but check the SB Tribe vote thread, I had Nick as my bootee.

R and L made a huge mistake by voting for Amber last night. They drove her back to the Ogies when they had a chance to get her to defect, if not in Ep 10 then certainly in Ep. 11 where she would still be the swing vote since L and R would win any tiebreakers against either K or C. I don't think the K/T sub-alliance has to worry as much about losing Amber to the Kucha's.

Colby's win of the fire bucket IC should worry the other survivors enough to start thinking about voting him off. The ICs are sometimes physical sometimes not, when there is a non-physical IC, the tribe should jump at the chance to vote off Colby because they may not get another non-physical IC for awhile, if at all. They need to take him out if and when they can. We have had several physical ICs in a row now, time for a non-physical IC. Colby doesn't win and the tribe seizes the chance to vote him out. The Ogies can afford to vote him off since Amber has not strayed so they would still be up 3-2.

In Ep. 12, The Ogies go after the remaining Kuchas and Roger goes because nobody wants to be in a jury vote against him and because either Liz wins the IC or she is so weak, noone is worried about losing her. Maybe they just want to get Roger to the ranch to get some food. I don't have a lot to justify it other than the Boston Globe saying Liz makes the final four and the 3 women, 1 guy final four spoiler. I just think that the Ogies will vote off Roger before Lis.

In Ep 13, Liz goes as the last Kucha and by then, she is so weak that she doesn't mind, another mercy killing in the Outback.

In Ep 14, the Ogies must finally turn on eachother. Keith has an advantage as both Tina and Amber think they can beat him in front of the jury since he took over the role as most annoying survivor after Jerri left. Tina wins Immunity and votes with Keith to oust Amber.

At last, we go to the jury and Tina wins in a near landslide. The only surprise is that Jerri actually votes for Keith. As it turns out, she hates Tina and her backstabbing ways a lot more than Keith and his soggy rice. Roger and Nick vote for Tina, Roger as a fellow southerner and Nick because, as he stated last night, Keith is too arrogant. Colby also votes for Tina as revenge for the south having lost the Civil War. Alicia votes for Keith because Jerri asks her to and becasue she hates southerners. Amber votes for Jerri until JP expalins that she can't do that so she instead votes for Gore but JP detects a hanging chad in her ballot and rules it a vote for Tina. Lis votes for Keith as instructed by JP so that the vote actually look close, Tina wins 4-3.

In typical fundamentalist hyperbole, Tina credits God for the win and claims that her principles are intact because all the lying, cheating and betraying she did was God's will and she, nothing more than His reluctant servant.

"N/C/K/A/R/T/E"
Posted by zoso on 04-06-01 at 10:06 AM
1. Nick - He got booted last night. Not that it wasn't the pick of choice before hand, but I thought I'd fess up.

2. Colby - I am pursuaded by the Las Vegas spoiler. I also think that Colby is simply an obvious target. Winning the fire challenge showed that he is not just a athletic threat. He must go. Finally, I think that next week is when Amber bolts to Lis. By waiting one week before exacting revenge on Okagor, she guarantees her spot in the final three (as opposed to merely the final four if Nick were still around).

3. Keith - Once Colby goes, R/E/A have the advantage. I think Keith is the biggest physical threat remaining. Ergo, K go.

4. Amber - Tina wins immunity and someone has to go. R & L are solid, so it must be Amber. The Tina People spoiler and Jerri's revenge comments suggest to me that Tina makes the final two, and this, IMHO, is how that happens.

5. Rodger - Lis is in a bind here. If she wins, she can't vote for Rodger, but she wants to be versus Tina in the Final. So, she pulls a Rich, and surrenders the challenge to Tina. Although it may be flawed logic, Tina boots Rodger because of his likability.

6. Tina loses, Lis wins. - If these are the final two, then I think the outcome is obvious. Rodger, Alicia, and Nick all vote for Lis. Keith, and maybe Colby, will vote for Tina. Jerri, stabbed in the back by Tina, goes for Lis - thus clinching Lis' victory. I think that Amber would likely favour Lis as well, also because of Tina's treachery. Result 5-2; Lis wins.

"N/R/C/K/T/A/L"
Posted by landruajm on 04-06-01 at 10:31 AM
Sorry I'm late. I'm on the record as voting for Nick for last night anyway, so I don't feel too bad about this.

Rodger, THEN Colby: I do believe the Las Vegas spoiler. But others have pointed out that it just means that Colby doesn't win. I buy the combination of the Vegas spoiler and the Colby as a threat theory.

Keith: It would be unlike Marky Mark to allow an all-women Final Three. But I think there's gonna be some old-fashioned gender-based bonding here that, combined with Lizliz's as-yet-unseen immunity streak, makes Y chromosomes obsolete on Bare-a-Midriff Beach.

Tina: Another Lizliz immunity special, plus those two sweet young thangs Lizliz and Dimber will finally figure out what a nasty, cranky old hillbilly Tee-int is.

Amber: Come on. Who would YOU vote for? If Lizliz gets to the final two, there's no way she loses, to ANYBODY.

"UPDATE: Consensus thus far"
Posted by Play2Survive on 04-06-01 at 10:44 AM
Liz is looking more and more like the popular choice to win.... more later.... P2S


7th Place - 43 (Nick): HE BE GONE!!!
7th: 25 votes
6th: 2 votes
4th: 2 votes
2nd: 1 vote

6th Place - 80 (Colby):
7th: 2 votes
6th: 16 votes
5th: 5 votes
4th: 3 vote
3rd: 1 vote
2nd: 1 vote
1st: 1 vote

5th Place - 103 (Rodger):
7th: 1 vote
6th: 5 votes
5th: 12 votes
4th: 2 votes
3rd: 9 votes
1st: 1 vote

4th Place - 134 (Keith):
7th: 1 vote
6th: 5 votes
5th: 5 vote
4th: 7 votes
3rd: 3 votes
2nd: 5 votes
1st: 4 votes

3rd Place - 156 (Tina):
5th Place: 3 votes
4th Place: 4 votes
3rd Place: 11 votes
2nd Place: 8 votes
1st Place: 4 votes

2nd Place - 159 (Amber):
6th Place: 1 vote
5th Place: 3 votes
4th Place: 5 votes
3rd Place: 3 votes
2nd Place: 13 votes
1st Place: 5 votes


2nd Place - 168 (Liz):
6th Place: 1 vote
5th Place: 2 votes
4th Place: 3 votes
3rd Place: 3 vote
2nd Place: 2 vote
1st Place: 15 votes

"N/K/C/A/R/T/E"
Posted by ElmersGlue on 04-06-01 at 12:27 PM
Episode 10 - Nick goes. I'm certain of this because I saw it on TV last night.

Episode 11 - Keith. Amber joins with Rodger and Liz to force a tie vote. Keith loses on the tie

Episode 12 - Colby. He's too much of a threat

Episode 13 - Amber. Amber and Tina plan on voting out Liz but she wins immunity. Rodger and Liz think that Amber is a bigger threat in a Final 2 vote than Tina.

*Note I pick this because I think that while NOBODY would want to face Rodger in the final 2..he's a perfect choice to take into the final 3. He's unlikely to win immunity AND the other person would almost HAVE to chose you to go into the Final 2 if you were to LOSE the IC.

Episode 14 - Rodger. But I hope that Tina wins that IC because I would hate to see Liz vote against him....

Episode 15 - Liz wins and becomes a multi-millionaire Reebok footware designer/spokesmodel.

Final Vote
Tina - Keith, Colby
Liz - Alicia, Jerri, Nick, Amber, Rodger

"R/E/A/C/K/T"
Posted by theclerk on 04-06-01 at 01:02 PM
I don't think Amber's smart enough to join with Rodger and Elisabeth, she continues to vote against them, and so do the old Ogakor. So Rodger and then Elisabeth go. Then K/C/T dump Amber because she's an outsider. K&T are tight, and vote off Colby (I'm not counting on Colby winning immunity - I'm assuming Keith manages to beat Colby in a strength/endurance challenge, or it's a mental one that T wins). T is more likeable than K.
"C/R/A/E/T/K"
Posted by FunkyD on 04-06-01 at 02:28 PM
Ep 11:
K, who is the Richard of this group, was visibly upset that C beat him in the Ep 10 IC, even though it was irrelevant to the voting. K has shown his tendancy to let his dislike for someone to override strategy (like voting Jerri out a week or 2 earlier than planned). He will go after C, which the remaining Kuchas all too eager to assist (6-1 vote).

Ep 12:
Time for Rodger to go. Elisabeth will be the target, but will win an IC.

Ep 13:
A gets the boot by K&T, assisted by E.

Ep 14:
K wins the canoe race finale, and takes his cohort over the more-likable E.

K gets the jury votes of Alicia, Rodger, Amber, and Nick.
T gets the jury votes of Colby, Jerri, and Elisabeth.

K wins the million.

"N/C/K/T/R/L/A"
Posted by Pinky and the Brain on 04-06-01 at 03:32 PM
Correctly picked Nick in vote thread.

EP 11 - Colby - Amber jumps ship to guarantee final 3

EP 12 - Keith - Next biggest IC threat is booted

EP 13 - Tina - Bye bye C/K/T alliance - Jerri ouster bites them in the ass

EP 14 - Rodger - Amber wins immunity and opts for Liz in finale

Finale - Amber over Liz in close 4-3 vote

"C/R/K/E/T"
Posted by specie on 04-06-01 at 04:26 PM
11. Tina and Keith team with Liz and Roger to oust the biggest physical threat left, Colby.

12: Tina and Keith work to boot Roger to prevent him and Liz hooking up with Amber to knock *them* off.

13: Tina turns on her last alliance, getting Liz to help her ditch Keith.

14: Liz gets the ouster, as either Tina or Amber take the IC

15: Final two: Amber and Tina. Keith, Liz, and Roger vote for Tina. Nick, Alicia, Jerri and Colby vote for Amber.

"N/C/K/T/R/E/A"
Posted by LowRent on 04-07-01 at 03:11 AM
Hope I'm not to late to get in on this. I've waffled 82 times.
I'm sure every possible scenario has been played out by now, but anyways, here goes...

E10: per voting thread, I had Nick picked, honest.
E11: Amber switches sides, votes out Colby.
E12: Amber/Elis/Rodge alliance stays strong, takes out Keith.
E13: Amber wins immunity, Lis/Rodger won't vote for each other...Tina has to go.
E14: Neither Amber or Elis want to face Rodger in the final vote; Rodger is voted out

Amber gets votes from: Jerri, Colby, Alicia, Keith (Maybe Tina)
Elis gets votes from: Rodger, Nick, Tina (Maybe Alicia)

"R/C/E/T/K/A"
Posted by cowboyroo on 04-07-01 at 05:13 PM
Elisabeth wins immunity; Ogakor stick together. Rodger gone.

Elisabeth wins immunity again. Colby biggest threat. Gone

Boston Globe says Elisabeth makes Final 4. Why not Final 3 or Final 2? Only Kucha left. Gone. If they do the trivia about past survivors, I'd say Tina has the best chance of winning immunity.

Tina would be the hardest to win against in a final vote. My guess is Amber wins immunity. Tina gone.

Jerri has her chance to get back at Kieth as her powerful jury comment suggests. Amber wins. I think by the many times Jerri has said that being on the jury is a powerful place to be, the person she votes to win does in fact win. She will surely find out that Kieth was the one who wanted Jerri gone. Those Ogies who don't make Final 2 will blame Kieth for the ploy.

"C/R/K/L/A/T"
Posted by Kokoro on 04-07-01 at 06:26 AM
<<7. No biting, hiting, pulling hair, cheating, stealing, nose-picking, back-stabbing, smoking, worm-eating, poop-smacking, brown-nosing or any other crime you might read on a school bus rules list.>>

Does that include eating, drinking, wearing a seatbelt, chewing gum and standing up? ^-^

Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.

And my new mascot type thingy:


"N/E/R/A/C/K/T"
Posted by BaquaR13 on 04-07-01 at 05:41 PM
With Nick already gone, the first one is intact. I think that
Elisabeth is obviously the next target, for strenght purposes,
that leaves Rodger next. Amber is the outsider and will be gone
first in the remaining Okagors. Then, Keith will win immunity
and kick off Colby, and Tina will beat Keith in the finals.
"R / L / K / T / C / A"
Posted by ACPS65 on 04-07-01 at 07:36 PM
Let's take a look...

Rodger: I think it's very obvious that he and Liz are going to be picked off....it's rediculous what some people say. Kentucky Joe goes the 12th of April.

Liz: See "Rodger" .

Keith: I think this one will be close. I predict Colby winning immunity, not really sure on how the votes will play out but I think there just may be a tie. Colby and Amber voting Keith, Keith and Tina voting Amber....? Either way, I see Keith going. He has more votes.

Tina: Fairly simple. Colby probably has a better shot at the million against Amber as she was the one who was Jerri's apprintice....but....

Colby will be eliminated and Amber will win. Really close vote though, I predict.

"C/T/E/A/K/R"
Posted by md23rewls on 04-07-01 at 08:11 PM
Just call it good ol' intuition, but my new EW spoiler is gonna work. Just wait, when Colby and Tina are gone, then maybe you'll beleive me. Untill then, sayonara
"R/C/E/K/A/T"
Posted by thecrock on 04-07-01 at 08:39 PM
I put credence in the Boston Herald that Liz will make the final 4 . I'm not sure if she wins an IC or not but Rog is gone before her for some reason. Keith is playing his little chess game. I believe he wants Colby out of there before too long, so I see him engineering Colby's retirement with the help of Tina and Liz. Liz is then meat. As Nick noted Keith is an arrogant snot, IMO Tina is playing him for what he's worth. Tina wins immunity and surprises him by selecting Amber.
I see the Jury going this way:

A - N, C, K (back stabbed),
T - A, E, R and surprisingly J (the reason Amber doesn't talk to her)

"N/C/R/E/T/K/A"
Posted by IslandFever on 04-07-01 at 09:24 PM
Ogakor stays strong and in the majority. However, voting off their own comes back to haunt Keith. Jerri gets her revenge. Elisabeth rumors were just that-rumors, except the Boston Herald story. Amber wins.
"N/E/R/C/A/K/T"
Posted by dangerboy on 04-07-01 at 11:16 PM
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

j
"(N)/R/A/E/C/K/T"
Posted by big idiot on 04-08-01 at 02:50 PM
1. Nick - already gone

2. Rodger - Dumb ass Amber will not defect. The Ogas like Eliz too much and so will vote Rodger off. They will not cannibalize any of their own Ogies because trickery can be a jury vote against you.

3. Amber - Given the choice btwn Amber and Eliz, they vote off Amber b/c they like her less.

4. Eliz - Sad parting.

5. Colby - biggest threat, plus Keith and Tina were the real core of the Oga voting block.

6. Keith loses to Tina in Jury contest. Tina was the brains and Keith was her Igor, everyone knows this and admires her gameship. Keith gets only one Jury vote from Jerri, Jerri says it is her step towards "reconciliation", but it is just for the publicity and because she is jealous of Tina's intelligent game engineering.

B.I.

"n/c/r/a/e/t/k"
Posted by janisella on 04-09-01 at 02:07 PM
Ditto the last few people on the Nick thing.

For some reason, Colby's athleticism is going to make people paranoid and he and Rodger are going to be the next two to go.

Lis is going to win immunity when she was going to be next.

Keith wins immunity and decides not to go into the final two with the cupie-doll.

Keith beats Tina in a close vote and we have a millionaire grasshopper wrangling chef.

Note: These are just guesses. I'm not related to any CBS empoloyees.

"(N) / C / K / T / A / E / R!!!!!!!"
Posted by BlondeGirl on 04-09-01 at 02:42 PM
Though I think Colby and Keith could be switched. ;o)

I think that Tina and Keith will have to realize that Colby is a really big threat in the immunity challenges. Even if Amber sticks with Ogacore in Episode 11, either Colby or Keith could be a goner if either one of them decides they don't like the competition for immunity. I'm thinking Rodger and Elisabeth and Keith may vote Colby, Tina, Colby, and Amber vote Liz, and Colby goes on previous votes. Fits in nicely with the "Uncle Camaraman" spoiler, although I think that so far it's just been lucky guesses.

Down now to Keith, Tina, Amber, Elisabeth, and Rodger in Episode 12. I'm thinking Keith will go because again, he is a big threat in the IC, even to Tina. She's stabbed people in the back all along the way, so why should Keith be any different? Plus if she buddies up to Rodger and Liz now, she will have a great chance of staying in to the final three and maybe winning immunity to the final two.

In the final four I think Rodger and Lis will have a big decision whether to take along Tina or Amber, but it may be made for them when Amber wins immunity. I think either one would be the same amount of competition in the final two, because they both have their "bad" points. Tina has back-stabbed and Amber was Jerri's lap dog. I see Tina going here though.

Rodger, Lis, and Amber will be the final three. This is where the "Lis telling friends not to watch" spoiler and the "I will never write that man's name down" foreshadowing come into play. I think Lis will win immunity. She will have to decide whether to take her beloved "Dad" Rodger or Jerri's "evil" twin Amber to the final two with her. And I think she uses her heart and not her head and boots Amber! Not a smart move if she really wants to win a million.

So in the final two, Lis will loose out on a million dollars because she's *too* sweet. Thus, she tells her friends not to watch the show. Would you want everyone you know making fun of you because you gave away a million dollars?! Rodger winning fits in nicely with the "uselessjunk" prediction of him as the winner. And we have to wait until Episode 13 to find out the source code is a red herring.

At least I hope this is the way it happens! I've wanted Rodger to win since the first episode, and I like Lis too. Pity she's blonde or she'd be a whole lot richer. LoL!

"C/R/A/L/T/K"
Posted by ana128 on 04-09-01 at 03:02 PM
Ep 11: Liz wins IC, Colby goes.
Ep 12: Liz wins IC, Rodger goes.
Ep 13: Amber's gone to be on the jury.
Ep 14: Liz goes.
Ep 15: Tina goes b/c of Jerri's speech.
Winner: Cooking Keith

ana

"(N)/R/C/A/T/K/L"
Posted by Starryeyes on 04-09-01 at 04:20 PM
*fingers crossed*
" >C > A > L > R > K > T"
Posted by bondt007 on 04-09-01 at 04:26 PM
as previously posted...
"C - T - K - R - A - E"
Posted by deb1551 on 04-09-01 at 07:43 PM
Colby- because it goes down to a tiebreaker between him & Lis. Colby has more previous votes. Tina wins immunity.

Tina- Because now the Ogakors will be down. Amber, Elisabeth and Rodger will be up against Tina and Keith. Amber wins immunity.

Keith- The last of the all-powerful Ogakor alliance bites the dust!

Rodger- Elisabeth wins immunity, and is forced to vote off Rodger because she'd have a better chance of winning the $1 mil against Amber.

AND AT THE JURY:

JURY MEMBER:-------VOTES FOR:
Alicia-------------Lis
Jerri--------------Amber
Nick---------------Lis
Colby--------------Amber
Tina---------------Amber (this is a maybe)
Keith--------------Lis (again, maybe)
Rodger-------------Lis (if his feelings aren't too hurt ;o)

And it's 4-3 Elisabeth WINS!!!
I predict it being VERY close.

Let's see if I get 100%..... Wouldn't THAT be strange....

"C/A/E/R/K/T"
Posted by anotherkim on 04-09-01 at 08:11 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-09-01 AT 08:12 PM (EST)

Colby this week--he is a threat and not around during the great flood. He has played both sides and I think that he is obviously the biggest threat. Liz and Rog would move to him in their voting to assure him votes and only one other, maybe Amber would have to go along with them. Plus, the spoiler that alliances aren't as important.

Amber is next--she isn't one of the nice people who quietly made a pact to go the final four.

Elizabeth has to go here. If Tina or Keith face her in the end, then she would win. If she wins immunity in the final three she is just too much of a threat. I would also think she and Amber might be interchanged, but perhaps the spoiler about her winnning immunity is correct..

Roger is next. K and T stick together. Perhaps K has immunity. Again, no one wants to be against him in the final two, so he has to go.

In a final two between Keith and Tina, Tina wins. Jerri would never vote for Keith, she has to suspect he was behind her ouster. That would also play into her remarks about paybacks. She probably isn't wild about Tina winning, but has enough respect for her playing to vote for her. I would think Tina would get a landslide of votes--totals would depend onhow Keith treats those remaining.

Just my humble, so very uneducated opinion.

Kim

**edited to add that I had picked Nick last week and thought I already posted this once--can't seem to fnid it though.

"C/A/K/R/T/E"
Posted by coolcatmissy on 04-09-01 at 10:47 PM
Hello, this is my first post everyone.

COLBY-For one, I believe in the GGA. I think that Mark Burnett is hiding that from us, for some reason. Also, Colby is a bigger threat than Amber, and therefore will go.

AMBER-This is pretty self-explanatory, assuming the GGA stays together. Amber is not likely to win the IC, so she will go.

KEITH- From here on in, it will be all for one, except Rodger and Elisabeth. I think Lis will win the IC, and R and E will vote off Keith.

RODGER-Yes, a very surprising twist, assuming Lis wins the IC. I think she will only win if she picks Tina over Rodger.

TINA-I'm just thinking that the jury will vote for Lis instead of Tina.

That's my summary, I'm crossing my fingers for it.

coolcatmissy

"C/K/A/T/L/R"
Posted by kreon on 04-09-01 at 11:01 PM
Colby for fear he will side with the other team. His willingness to vote off Jerri because he didn't think it was right to have Liz go before Jerri will come back to bite him! Keith knows he needs to go now because he is the strongest! Keith next because he is the next strongest. not to mention female majority vote! Amber is a no brainer here with the three remaining nailing her. As it stands she is tied with Liz with two votes against her. I think Keith will give her the third boot vote before he leaves making her lose to Liz in a tie. The final 2 are solid! with Liz chosing Rodger or Rodger chosing Liz! Rodger win's based on heart, soul, gut's etc...Liz herself would vote for him if she could! Also based on the statement that it is opposite from last year and the sweetest one wins! Could be Liz but I see Rodger victorious over her! Not to mention that both in the finals would sure destroy last years image of the Snake Rat thing! Just the two sweetest left for the money!
"C,A,R,L,K,T"
Posted by crocodilehunter on 04-10-01 at 02:35 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-10-01 AT 02:37 AM (EST)

E11: Colby. I think that Colby showed up Keith during the last immunity challenge, and I sensed a competitive edge between these two that I have not seen in the past. I believe that Keith was the ring leader in the Jerri boot, and will also be the ring leader in the Colby boot. This will not set well with the jurors if Keith makes it to the final two. Other than Jerri, Keith has made the most enemies among the two tribes. (maybe even more)

E12: Amber: I am one of the weirdo's that actually believe in the "good guys" til the end scenario. (can't help it)

E13: Rodger. I think that Rodger makes it to the jury in time for Jerri to feel she can call him a friend, and to also say that she wished she could have gotten to know him better.

Lis, Keith, Tina. Final 3.
Keith wins immunity. Lis is gone.
Keith/Tina final 2

Jury votes in favor of:

Jerri: Tina (Hates Keith)
Amber: Tina (Hates Keith)
Lis: Tina (Bonded with Tina)
Rodger: Tina (Lis & Rodger always vote alike)
Colby: Tina (Keith is arrogent/voted Colby out)
Nick: Tina (Hates Keith)
Alicia: Tina (Has heard about Keith from Jerri)

Tina wins in a sweep...


"C/T/R/K/E/A"
Posted by Malley on 04-10-01 at 09:28 AM
.
"Keith/Tina/Amber/Lis"
Posted by Kramer on 04-10-01 at 11:46 AM
Ep 11: Lis wins immunity, Rodger goes.
Ep 12: Lis wins immunity, Keith quotes "We are forced to vote one of our own off" and Colby goes.
Ep 13: Lis wins immunity and Keith goes.
Ep 14: Lis/Amber wins immunity and Tina goes.

Jury:
Alicia (K)
Jerri (O)
Nick (K)
Rodger (K)
Colby (O)
Keith (O)
Tina (O)

Lis gets Alicia, Nick, Rodger and Tina votes.
Amber gets Colby and Keith.

It doesnt matter how Jerri votes.

Just my opinion,
Kramer

"(N)/K/R/C/T/A/E"
Posted by Puffs on 04-10-01 at 12:35 PM
I will elaborate when I have all of my info together
"A - C - R - E - K - T"
Posted by DivaByTheSea on 04-10-01 at 12:43 PM
-- Amber goes. K/T/C vote for her along with R/E A votes for Colby (No one really likes her anymore)

-- Colby gone. R/E vote for C (2). C votes for Rodger (1). K and T vote for E. (2) Colby has more previous votes...he's gone (This is pure speculation)

-- Final four -- Rodger, Elisabeth, Tina, Keith -- The Good Guys Alliance

Rodger goes -- K/T vote for him. R/L vote for Tina b/c Keith gets immunity. Rodger got a previous vote from Colby. He's gone. No hard feelings

Elisabeth -- K/T both vote for her. She votes for Keith (assuming he doesn't win immunity).

Final 2 are Tina and Keith. Keith doesn't win b/c of issues with Jerri, etc. Women all vote for Tina. (Remember the whole quote about "sex haveing something to do with who makes it"). That's Alicia, Jerri, Elisabeth, and Amber voting for her. (4) Rodger votes for T -- they have the same background and morals. That makes 5 votes--enough to win.


**** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****

"L/R/A/C/K/T"
Posted by moonbaby on 04-10-01 at 01:27 PM
sorry if this came up twice, something weird just happened to my pc!
"C / K / R / L / A / T"
Posted by Siebured on 04-10-01 at 01:47 PM
Long live the Girls & Geezer Alliance!

(I really hope Amber has a brain)

"N/R/C/L/A/K/T"
Posted by samiam on 04-10-01 at 02:19 PM
Nick is gone already. Rodger is next (Kucha due to lack of "shocker" language, Rodger due to Marilyn's friends and Liz may win immunity). Then it would be Liz but she wins immunity and Colby is voted out as the biggest immunity threat to K & T (has to spend time at the ranch, Liz makes it to F4). Liz goes next (unless she wins immunity again, which is doubtful) as the last Kucha. The next part is solely up to who wins immunity, but I think Amber goes unless she wins immunity; if she does win immunity, then Tina goes (hoping to do better against Keith in the F2) here, and Amber wins. I just don't see either one of them losing against Keith.

Probably completely totally wrong, but what the hell.

"R/C/L/T/K/A"
Posted by MadforMadDog on 04-10-01 at 02:20 PM
ep. 11 Liz wins immunity, Roger gone

ep. 12 Liz wins immunity, Colby gone.

ep. 13 Liz doesn't win immunity, Liz gone

ep. 14 Amber wins immunity, Tina gone (Amber exacts revenge for Jerri, thinks Tina is the one who betrayed her)

ep. 15 Jerri goes after Amber (don't know why) in the jury and Keith wins

"C / A / R / L / K / T"
Posted by dangerkitty on 04-10-01 at 02:23 PM
Sigh - I have put this off long enough. There are arguments for many orders. I fear that Amber actually will go farther, but I am allowing myself to have her booted sooner because that's what I prefer, so the hell with it. I am going with the GGA. Colby is out now because the others know what an IC threat he is, as well as likealbe. They have to boot him as soon as they have a chance. Then it is the GGA and unless Amber wins IC, she goes. Then it is each one for themselves.

dangerkitty

w.l.s.f.c.

"C/A/L/R/K = T "
Posted by Conspiracy Jim on 04-10-01 at 02:35 PM
The real alliance that has not been shown is Tina/Kieth/liz and Roger. Colby is being played by Tina and Kieth while Amber is being played by everyone. Colby is the first to go, probably this week as he is the strongest physically, and is a threat in the immunity challenges. Amber goes next (barring immunity). Same this week. If Colby wins immunity then he goes next time with Amber going this week. The final 4 would the be...

Kieth
Tina
Liz
Roger

Immunity means everything at this point. The previous council votes will be the difference. If Liz won then Kieth would get the boot as Liz and Roger get rid of Kieth on tie-breaks. In this scenerio it is likely that Liz wins the million. Likely Kieth wins the episode 12 immunity as it is likely the canoe challenge and strength will be the difference. It's also possible that Liz gets more votes from Colby and/or Amber between now and then to make the tie-breaker worse for her than for Kieth. So, Liz or Roger (likely Liz) go first. Roger would have to win the immunity once down to three or would get the boot. If he wins it, then he likely wins the money in a final 2 versus Kieth (it would be stupid for him to pick Tina). If not (which is likely) then the final 2 is Kieth versus Tina and Tina wins it hands down.

This is actually a very possible scenerio but is stupid for Kieth. Keeping Liz and Roger over AMber makes it crucial for him to win the final four immunity. If you think about it, it is in almost everyone's best interest to try and be in the final 2 versus Kieth. Nick would not vote for him and Jerri would not either. This will be where she gets her "payback". Between now and then it is likely that Alicia will hear about Kieth not showing up with his backpack and thus she would likely not vote for him. Roger or Liz would also vote for either their conunterpart or Tina. That's four votes so it doesn't matter what Amber or Colby do.

Conspiracy Jim
"Ya, sure we went to the moon?!!!

"K / C / T / R / A / E"
Posted by Gemini on 04-11-01 at 02:54 AM
- Amber finally gets a clue on how to play this game and joins with remaining Kuchas since she is the odd man out in Ogahore. Colby wins next IC. Keith next choice with most past votes. Could see it be Colby if someone else wins IC.

- R/A/E pick off Colby next since more of a physical threat than Tina.

- Tina, which leaves the final three of the new alliance.

- Amber wins IC, figures she has a better shot against Lizzy in the final two, so boots Rodger.

Jury:
Alicia (Liz - Kucha 'till the end)
Rodger (Liz - Of course, pops won't let her down)
Nick (Liz - Probably could care less, but will stick with tribal roots)
Colby (Amber - Upset over backstabbing, but still loyal to Ogahore)
Jerri (Amber - Her little pet)
Tina (Liz - became better friends with Liz in shorter amount of time)
Keith (Liz - Angry that wicked witch's stepsister in final 2)

Lizzy wins it 5-2.

- Probably closer to what I hope, rather than the truth...

: Gemini

"K/C/T/E/A/R"
Posted by kanabo on 04-11-01 at 09:48 AM
Not exactly sure of my reasons, but I'll try...

Keith: I was thinking it was Colby this week, but now I'm not so sure. The pic w/the horses leads me to believe that Colby is instrumental in helping evacuate/move the camp and therefore he would be respected and kept along for a while (one person misses the drama...could be Colby moving stuff while the rest of the camp frantically works, does it effect their standing - no, cause he was playing an instrumental part in moving the camp although he wasn't present for much of it...). Keith was highlighted quite a bit last epi...and not all that great (the arrogance factor, so that we want him to go?). I'd like to think that Amber wises up and joins with Liz & Rodger. They vote Keith (with Amber still somewhat loyal to Colby and Liz & Rodger somewhat loyal to Tina) while the rest of the ogies vote Amber (thinking that R/E will vote for her again or to keep her from defecting...too late)

Colby: To much of a threat in the challenges, needs time at the ranch, etc etc (although I may be back here on Fri morning to change this around as he may go this week as consensus seems to still be on him)

Tina: not quite sure why, but I think that it's her time. I like the idea of EAR as the final 3. I don't think that the EAR alliance is super strong, just a necessity in epi 11. I think that Tina may pose a threat to the final 2 voting and to immunity. They may have realized some of her backstabbing. Maybe Amber wins immunity and Tina is the default.

Liz: the boston herald prediction of Liz makes the final 4...not the final 2. If Rodger wins immunity, he will want to go to the Jury with an Ogie so that it will help his chances at winning (if he took Liz, then the Kuchas would be outnumbered in the Jury and it seems as if Liz is tighter with the Ogies then Rodger is) and if Amber wins immunity she would probably take Liz (they have bonded a bit more than she & Rodger and she's been shown to be very loyal)...so I think Rodger wins immunity and 'backstabs' Liz (hence the Jerri comment that the winner is a backstabber)

Amber: who would you vote for...Amber or Rodger?

Rodger: see above (perhaps Jerri has something to say about Amber...thus the spec that they are not on the best of terms. Also the alleged 'disappearance' of Amber after teh show...hurt feelings)

"BUMP"
Posted by skierdude10 on 04-11-01 at 07:07 PM
bump it up
"BUMP!"
Posted by skierdude10 on 04-11-01 at 07:09 PM
bump
"UPDATE: Consensus thus far"
Posted by Play2Survive on 04-12-01 at 00:20 AM
We've got a few common ideas here. Common themes:

1) Keith or Amber are best bets for Final Jury loser.
2) Tina and Liz are best bets for Winner.
3) A Kucha makes it to final four in 90+%.
4) Colby does NOT make final four.
5) Nick gets voted off in E10.

7th Place - Nick (81): HE BE GONE!!!
7th: 63 votes
6th: 2 votes
4th: 2 votes
2nd: 1 vote

6th Place - Colby (189):
7th: 2 votes
6th: 36 votes
5th: 17 votes
4th: 5 votes
3rd: 5 votes
2nd: 2 votes
1st: 1 vote

5th Place - Rodger (247):
7th: 1 vote
6th: 15 votes
5th: 21 votes
4th: 7 votes
3rd: 18 votes
1st: 5 votes

4th Place - Keith (311):
7th: 1 vote
6th: 9 votes
5th: 10 vote
4th: 14 votes
3rd: 5 votes
2nd: 22 votes
1st: 7 votes

3rd Place - Elizabeth (336):
6th Place: 4 votes
5th Place: 3 votes
4th Place: 13 votes
3rd Place: 13 votes
2nd Place: 8 votes
1st Place: 22 votes

2nd Place - Amber (348):
6th Place: 2 vote
5th Place: 10 votes
4th Place: 14 votes
3rd Place: 7 votes
2nd Place: 22 votes
1st Place: 13 votes


2nd Place - Tina (373):
5th Place: 6 votes
4th Place: 8 votes
3rd Place: 20 vote
2nd Place: 15 vote
1st Place: 19 votes

"Independent Spot Check"
Posted by IceCat on 04-12-01 at 06:43 AM
I just thought I'd check your assertion that Colby does not make the final four. Your count shows Colby with only five 4th place votes. I counted twice and show him with at least fifteen 4th place votes. That is the only check I performed. I did not check for hanging, pregnant, or dimpled chads...

At any rate I think a recount might be in order...

Vice President (ret) Al...

I mean... IceCat

"Nope, recount your recount"
Posted by Play2Survive on 04-12-01 at 11:35 AM
First, let me tell you this was a harder job than you might imagine because many people didn't follow the rules (for instance, they left off the winner in subject line and only included the other six).

Colby has had a total of 13 votes for 4th place OR HIGHER, but only 5 voted for 4th place finish. He has 17 votes for 5th Place (which may be the column you were counting Ice Cat), and a whopping 36 votes for 6th.

NOTE: P2S is not a statistician by trade, but did double check numbers prior to post and will cautiously guarantee 99% accuracy (but not 100).

Keep the votes coming ... because after today it'll be gettin a little unfair don't ya think.....

"(N)/A/R/E/C/K/T"
Posted by weltek on 04-12-01 at 02:21 PM
Immunity can really mess things up, so we'll see!

Amber goes tonight because she's a no-longer needed outsider

Rodger goes next week because Liz wins immunity and Ogies need to keep their numbers one up.

Elisabeth goes the following week (barring immunity of course)in the final Kucha ousting.

Colby taken out by the Keith/Tina alliance

Tina massacres Keith in the final vote. I'm a big believer in the theory that episode one revealed Tina getting no face time and MB stating that it's in what we don't see....

"(N)/R/C/K/T/E/A"
Posted by Elwood on 04-12-01 at 03:07 PM
I have NO IDEA why I think Amber will win the final vote vs Elisabeth, but I just do.

If I could vote, it'd be Lizzie all the way for the million, though. I wouldn't mind a date, either.

"C/A/R/E/K/T"
Posted by mysty101 on 04-12-01 at 03:41 PM
LUCKY GUESSING
"A/C/R/E/K/T"
Posted by true on 04-12-01 at 07:01 PM
or A/C/R/K/T/E
"A-R-C-L-K-T"
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-12-01 at 07:42 PM
Lamber goes next for the stated reasons on the other vote thread.

Ogakor uses 3-2 advantage to get rid of Kucha, Lizliz wins IC, so Rodger is gone.

Once again up by two, Ogakor gets rid of one of their own, so IC threat Colbster is gone.

Lizliz HAS to win immunity to get into final two, I'll take the odds and say she doesn't, so she's gone.

Final Vote:

Nick: Keith you arrogant fvck I'm voting for TINA
Colby: Young grasshopper votes for his teacher, KEITH
Rodger: I'll vote for my fishing partner KEITH
Liz: I like TINA'S spirit.
Scerri: I hate you keith, but I hate you also Tina, so pick a number 1-10 (Tina guesses closest)
Alicia: Screw keith, I vote for TINA


Tina wins the Million.

"N/A/R/E/C/K/T"
Posted by travelingbetty on 04-12-01 at 07:45 PM
I picked Nick last week, so I am counting him. Amber is my pick for this week.

After Amber goes, the Oga threesome have to start picking off the Kucha good guys, so I choose Roger because of the Boston Herald spoiler that Liz makes final four. Liz goes next because she makes the final four not the final three.

The next one is tough, but if Tina wins immunity, she chooses to get rid of Colby, because her chances of winning are slimmer versus the amiable shell (stealing) giving cowboy than the arrogant, can't cook chef.

Tina has been playing brilliantly by keeping her deceptions hidden while smiling most of the time so she gets the majority of votes to win.

I can't wait to see how this plays out!

"C/K/R/T/L"
Posted by bebekid on 04-12-01 at 10:07 PM
I know I'm a little late, but I was afraid to vote until tonight's episode. OK if I don't get bragging rights!

Colby is gone the next time he fails to win immunity. Can he win 3 in a row? I hope not. MB surely will insert a challenge that favors a female next episode.

T/R/E/K is the final four. Keith loses the tie-break. Things get dicey here. Maybe Tina wins the final immunity and figures she has a better chance against Lis than Rodger? Or maybe Lis wins the final IC and votes off Rodger (foreshadowing in early ep "I will not spell that man's name")?

Jerri wails on Tina for being a backstabber. (Aren't we all convinced that Jerri makes some kind of spectacle at final TC?) Lis wins and Amber blames Jerri's rant for Tina's loss (Amber would vote for Tina?) Or Tina might win (BECAUSE of Jerri's rant), but I am pretty sure Tina and Lis are the final 2.

"STILL ALIVE ARE>>>>>>>>"
Posted by Play2Survive on 04-12-01 at 10:36 PM
Here are the only 5 players right so far....but in all fairness, I've added the date they posted their prediction. Kuchakor....

you the (wo)man!!!! (sorry don't know your gender)


Kuchakor 4/5
DivaByTheSea 4/10
Weltek 4/12
True 4/12
Shakes the Clown 4/12

"RE: STILL ALIVE ARE>>>>>>>>"
Posted by kuchakor on 04-17-01 at 10:53 PM
Man! lol
"AND WHO THEY PICKED IN E12"
Posted by Play2Survive on 04-18-01 at 01:33 PM
>
>Kuchakor 4/5
>DivaByTheSea 4/10
>Weltek 4/12
>True 4/12
>Shakes the Clown 4/12

If Colby is voted out this week, we will be down to three:

Kuchakor
True
DivaByTheSea

If Rodger is voted out this week, we will only have two left:

Weltek
ShakesTheClown

If Keith, Tina or Liz get voted out this week, we're all through, d@%%!*!

"K / E / R / T / C"
Posted by GWhiz3 on 04-13-01 at 02:09 AM
First off, here's how I think the Amber vote came about: The true aliance is Colby/Tina. Colby got Amber to vote along with him for Roger, while knowing that Tina/Keith/Elisabeth/Roger would vote for Amber, thus booting Amber while stacking two votes against Roger. Also, this would explain the Colby/Keith conversation about Amber "not knowing."(ep 10) (Amber can pretty much guess that Lis and Roger voted for her, but she doesn't know which Ogakore vote she got.)

So, if the Colby/Tina aliance is REALLY calling the shots, I say that Keith's arrogance gets to Colby, and he and Tina decide that it's his time to go. This leaves C/T/E/R.

At this point, Colby has to win immunity. With Colby protected, Elisabeth and Roger vote for Tina, Tina and Colby vote for whichever they want (i think Elisabeth, since she's more likely to win an immunity challange), since either will lose in a tiebreaker. This leaves R/T/C.

Roger goes next, thus not spending too much time with Jerri. Tina and Colby are left, providing opportunity for Jerri to pull a "soozin."

Jerri (who at this point still thinks she has plans with Colby to "meet up later"), Amber, Nick, Keith (feeling betrayed by Tina)vote Colby.

Alicia, Elisabeth, and Roger vote Tina.

Colby wins.

Of course, I'll be surprised as heck if ANY of this turns out to be true!

Cheers! ...and GO DALLAS STARS!
GW

"R/C/E/T/K"
Posted by heresy on 04-14-01 at 10:27 PM
Based on the known final five, and various spoilers:

======
Rodger

Said all it ever did was rain. Since the rain's over after the next episode, Rodger leaves. Also, it would be a big mistake for either Keith or Colby to have a 2-Kucha, 2-Ogakor final four. I don't think Tina will allow it, regardless of bad feelings between Colby and Keith.

======
Colby

Based on a few spoilers.

First, we have the Las Vegas conversation where he and Nick said they had to go to the ranch. So, he doesn't win or place second. Probably not third, either.

Second, we have the "Elisabeth in the final four" from the newspaper. I think what happened here is that someone found out that she was in all of the episodes, but didn't know that there was an extra episode this year. This spoiler really puts her in the final three.

Third, we have Keith rumored to be in all of the episodes as well. Although several have remarked that just being in the jury counts as being in "all of the episodes", I disagree with that line of reasoning. One of the biggest spoilers we had last season was that Kelly was in all episodes -- and she was in the final four (and ended up in 2nd place!!!).

Last, we have Jerri's statement that she has something to say to Tina in the final tribal council. I take this to mean that Tina actually makes it to the final two.

We have three independent spoilers, all saying the final three is E/T/K.

Therefore, Colby is voted off.

=======
Elisabeth

This is where the spoilers get tricky.

We have the statement from the Jeff/Alicia alliance that said "if Liz makes it to the final three, she will win".

We also have the (now defunct) source code spoiler, saying that Liz and Amber were the final two.

Since the "source code" spoiler was definitely planted by Mark B., just like the "final four" from last season, I'll make the guess here that the fake "final two" and the fake "final four" have the same meaning. Half of the fake "final four" made it to the final episode, but didn't win. Therefore, half of the fake "final two" make it to the final episode. But, they don't win.

The Jeff/Alicia alliance fizzled, so I'm willing to speculate that their prediction also fizzled, meaning that Liz didn't win.

So, Elisabeth is voted off.

Definitely too nice to get to the final jury against. But she did kick butt -- who (among the average viewers) would have thought that she would have made it this far? I don't think even Mark B. would have guessed she'd make it to final three after the first post-merger vote.

-- I wanted her to win, too...

======
Tina

We have the hunger from the People special and the fact that Jerri has a few words for Tina in the final Tribal Council.

Jerri has said she'd get payback.

At the last tribal council, Tina said she wanted to have people she liked with her toward the end. Jerri and Amber heard this before Amber was voted off. So, Jerri now knows that Tina has been faking being nice to her all this time. So does Amber.

The final vote is 4-3.

Jerri's vote for Keith is the deciding vote. Jerri may not like Keith, but he never pretended that he liked her and was friends with her. With all of the foreshadowing that they did in the first episodes for how much Jerri and Keith couldn't stand each other, the ultimate irony is that the person Keith would rather see lose than win himself is the one who provided the winning vote for him.

Keith wins.

=====

Storyline -- "The Comeback Kid"
We are shown how good things are in Kucha, and how bad things are in Ogakor.

Kucha catches fish. Lots of them. They get chickens and kill a wild pig. Ogakor doesn't catch many fish. They don't even so much as see a wild pig.

Kucha more or less dominates in the challenges, both reward and immunity. Ogakor loses three immunities in a row. After their third immunity, Keith is the target. Somehow, Tina convinces Colby that they don't want to keep the "dead weight" (sorry Mitchell) around at the cost of a strong member.

When the final immunity challenge is coming up, things look really bad. Ogakor has lost three of the five previous immunity challenges. The picnic reward challenge, which required a great deal of teamwork, showed how badly they worked as a team. The

However, the Ogakor team themselves are miraculously saved when Mike gets severely burned. This means that instead of 6-4 (bye-bye Ogakor), the tribes merge at 5-5.

But, they have a big problem. Two of their members have prior votes. One of them has three votes. The other has two. Only one of the Kucha has votes against him, two votes -- but Ogakor only knows about one of these votes from the loudmouthed Kimmy.

So, they protect Keith and Jerri, and manage to get Jeff voted off. Ogakor is in control.

Keith went from a sure bet to lose to being the winner by one vote -- the one from his greatest enemy.

"C/K/T/E/R"
Posted by Predictor on 04-15-01 at 12:02 PM



Predictor

"K/C/L/T/R"
Posted by doughboy2002 on 04-17-01 at 02:18 PM
Keith on Ep 12

Colby and Keith fight, causing Tina Rodger and Lis to be upset at them. Colby, realizing that T R L (not MTV), will be voting for one of them, tells Tina that if they go for Keith and he wins the final Immunity, then Colby will take Tina into the Final. Tina agrees and Keith is gone.

Tina and Colby vote for Rodger, Lis gets immunity. Rodger and Lis vote for Colby and he goes in the tiebreak.
Colby on Ep 13

Tina wins final immunity and thinks that Amber/Jerri would be more likely to vote for Lis then Rodger so she boots Lis
Lis on Ep 14

Rodger wins the Jury vote after Jerri goes Susan on Tina.
Tina in Final 2
Rodger to win

Doughboy

"Try not. Do or Do not, there is no try" - Yoda

GO CUBS GO

"(N) / (A) / C / K / R / T / L"
Posted by Lightmage81 on 04-17-01 at 10:39 PM
n/m yet
"R/C/E/T/K"
Posted by Thinking on 04-18-01 at 12:05 PM
See Heresy's post, #91. Says it all!
"C/E/K/T/R"
Posted by kirin on 04-18-01 at 12:54 PM
Colby is everyone's biggest threat right now. They need
to vote him off the next time he doesn't win immunity, and
my guess is tomorrow night. He's pissing a lot of people off with all his triumphant victory "dances" and I think young grasshopper underestimates Bozo's intelligence. Plus we know that he spent some time at the ranch hanging with Nick.

Elizabeth will be next. No one halfway intelligent should want to face her in the final 2. Maybe the irony is that although she said she would never spell Rodger's name that he spells hers. Boston Herald spoiler only took her to the final four, and she seems more competitive in the challenges than Rodger. (if she gets some food that is!)

Then Keith. How about if Rodger wins immunity and decides to take Tina with him to the final 2? I think we need to consider a Christian alliance between Tina and Rodger. She says at least that she is wants to be around people who deserve to win. That said, I could easily see Elizabeth and Rodger trading places here. Regardless, I don't see Keith in the final two. Tina seems to be getting all the bad comments from Jerri/Amber and I think that this would give credence to the thought that Jerri at least gets to dump on Tina in the final vote.

Rodger wins the vote against Tina, just like the kangaroo we thought would never make it up the bank. He has the votes of Alicia, Nick, Elisabeth, Jerri (I'd like to get to know him better) and most likely Colby (don't mess with Texas...I know that's been debunked, but I like it anyway...the Colbster loves those type of cutesy sayings).

I know, I know, pure speculation but at this point Rodger or Elizabeth are the only two I would like to see win (MB spoiler?). Tina is too conniving (like Rich Hatch) Keith is too arrogant (again, like Rich Hatch) and Colby...whew, he should have had it locked, but somewhere along the way he messed up. He went from having all the O's in his pocket and picking Kucha off one by one to needing to win immunity and fighting with one of his last allies.

Hey, its a nice dream at least!

Kirin