As I, and others have pointed out, the best Amber could do, no matter which tribe she sides with, is 4th place. If she sides with Ogakor, they take out all of Kucha and she is first gone when they self-destruct. If she sides with Kucha, they take the remainder of Ogakor out and then she is the first gone on self-destruct. But who says she has to stay loyal to either side?

If she sides with Ogakor this vote and they take out a Kucha, then next vote she could side with the remaining Kuchas and vote out an Ogakor. Voting against an Ogakor, either Keith or Colby, would cause a tie vote to go to Kucha/Amber as Amber, Rodger and Nick have no prior votes, and Elizabeth has 2, while Keith has 3 and Colby has 5. For each remaining tribal council she could switch sides again until she is in the final 2.

If this method required prior strategy to carry out, I would say it is doubtful she would be smart enough or bold enough to do it, but these options will show themselves to her as the game evolves and all she will have to do is take them. Necessity is the mother of invention, and the necessity of staying alive may well cause Amber to see the votes she needs to make each week that will take her to the final 2.

-- Rat -- The other white meat --

• RE: Will Amber whittle both teams down to the final 2?,Loree, 01:00 PM, 04-04-01
• RE: Will Amber whittle both teams down to the final 2?,managerr, 01:11 PM, 04-04-01
• RE: Will Amber whittle both teams down to the final 2?,Play2Survive, 01:32 PM, 04-04-01
• RE: Will Amber whittle both teams down to the final 2?,Bebo, 02:22 PM, 04-04-01
  • RE: Will Amber whittle both teams down to the final 2?,soulSurvivor_23, 04:19 PM, 04-04-01

I think Amber's problem with doing that is she will make enemies on both sides. Will there be anyone left on the jury besides Jerri to vote for her?

Bouncing back and forth so soon will *not* work. All people that are coming up with scenarios in which Amber bounces back and forth are faulty because they assume that the losing side will happily accept their fate and continue voting along tribal lines.

Suppose Amber defects and votes out Colby. Tina and Keith, now on the losing side are definitely going to try and get in with Roger and Liz, and replace Amber or Nick. Keith might actually make a good partner in the F4 because of all his votes and Liz owes him for saving her. She basically is allowed one defection before the others become wary of her and start forming a new alliance that doesn't include her.

Amber can do better than 4th if she chooses a side and sticks with it. If she stays with Kucha, Nick will be forced to align with her to break up Roger/Liz. Ogakor is a bit trickier since T-K-C might make a deal to come down to the Final 3. But it's not like Colby or Tina won't align with her if they see fit.

Amber can absolutely do better than 4th in almost any scenario. We must remember that above everything this is a game and there is only one winner. So assuming that she'd finish 4th with either Kucha or Ogakor is faulty logic.

Let's say she stays with Ogakor. Nick, Rodger and Liz have been removed. Do we really think Keith, Tina and Colby will all choose to make a bad decision (voting off Amber) to avoid making an evitable decision (voting for one of the other two) three days sooner?

As MP said, "the game has changed." We've heard all along that alliances don't play as big a role in S2 as S1, and so far we've seen this to be true. Each player is thinking about getting to the finish line and who they need to bring along to get there.

Finally, it can be said that Rich Hatch rather ruthlessly and systematically voted people off the show, and what happened? These same people awarded him a million for playing the game the best. If Amber were to pull something of what you suggest off, I wouldn't doubt that she would win a final 2 vote.

I've said it before, but I believe it is too early to determine how the jury will vote. Will they vote based on who they like or who they think deserves to win?

One way that Amber could make it farther than 4th is to align herself with Nick, the Kuchie outsider. YES, I know his loyalty to Lis and Rodger is strong. But he has to know that if got down to the 3 of them somehow, they would stick together to be the final 2. If the Kuchies could indeed bring in Amber, then they could pick off the other 3 Ogies for a L/R/N/A final four. Nick would be foolish to go along with L/R to vote off Amber at this point, since it would cinch his spot on the jury choosing between the other two.

Do I think this is going to happen? Nope. But it's a scenario that would put Amber in the final two without switching back and forth.

Why doesn't Amber align herself with Ogakor for Ep 10 and vote out Nick (assuming he doesn't pull a Super-Kelly Immunity Streak), and following that, she could vote along with Kucha against Colby, who would lose in any tie.
After that, the Amber-Liz-Rodger alliance would vote for Keith as soon as possible since he wins Immunity so often. Then, Tina would leave. Of course, this could all be screwed up by Tina or Keith or Nick winning Immunity before the Final Four. But anyway, if it all worked out, Amber, Liz, and Rodger would be the Final Three. If Amber won Immunity, she would choose Liz over Rodger because everyone loves Good Ole Kentucky Joe, who never schemed or plotted against anyone. If Liz won, she would choose Rodger and Rodger would choose Liz, we think. Then, at jury, it was anybody's guess, but Amber would have a good chance.
---soulSurvivor---