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Thread Number: 1054
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Original Message
"Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by MarkP on 09-04-06 at 11:26 AM
Erika goes this week (which looks like a strong possibility) and Janie wins the final HOH (which is a realistic possibility)? Considering what we hear on the feeds there is no doubt whatsover Janie realizes that she has a much better chance to win against Boogie than Will. If this scenerio occurs, is is possible that Janie picks Boogie? Does anyone believe that could happen? If Janie takes Boogie she takes a huge step in wiping the slate clean with all those who have bashed her game play recently (myself on the top of that list). If she takes Will, even the diehard LOJ will be hard pressed to defend her most important decision in the show. Based on her recent conversations with Erika you would think the odds are very strong she takes Boogie, but based on her relationship with Will I would say the odds are 60/40 she takes Will (her latest conversation with Erika led me to change the odds from like 80/20 to 60/40). What does everyone think - could she possibly take Boogie?
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Messages in this discussion
"I hope she wakes up"
Posted by moonbaby on 09-04-06 at 11:38 AM
and realizes she's been played. Some of her recent remarks regarding CT point to that realization, so maybe she will take Boogie. It would be hilarious to see the expression on Will's face. Muahahah, that would be great!

"RE: I hope she wakes up"
Posted by bdemoney on 09-04-06 at 12:08 PM
If Janelle has an ounce of strategic sense left in her (which may be doubtful) she will take Boogie with her to the finals.

There is absolutely NO DOUBT that she has a MUCH better chance of winning against Boogie than Will. Boogie is very unlikeable and arguably it can be said that he rode Will's coattails as much as Janelle did. Without winning nearly the amount of comps. as Janie did.

Whereas, Will is still well-liked by most on the jury and has played an overall better game than Janelle. Even without winning HOH once he has single-handly orchestrated everyones removal from the house. Even having the ablity to convince the HOH who they should nominate that week, which is quite a gift. Especially when YOU are the one they SHOULD be targeting.

In my opinion, if Janelle wins the final HOH and picks Will over Boogie she will have just made the gravest error in reality show history.....perhaps topping when Colby brought Tina to the end with him or when Marcellas chose not to use the Golden Veto on himself.


"RE: I hope she wakes up"
Posted by Buggy on 09-04-06 at 01:05 PM

if Janelle wins the final HOH and picks Will over Boogie she will have just made the gravest error in reality show history.....

Yes, she would have, unless she wins.
And I know that many think that doubtful, but it is still a possibility, we'll have to see how it turns out.

"RE: I hope she wakes up"
Posted by michel on 09-04-06 at 01:33 PM
The only problem is that Will can say this to Janelle: "If you eliminate me, you can be sure that Erika, Danielle and I will vote for Mike. Are you sure you have all the other votes? Against me, I have Mike and Erika's votes but Danielle and James blame me, not Mike. That gives you a better shot at their votes."

The HG don't know what the jury thinks and neither do we! There is still room for manipulation!

"RE: I hope she wakes up"
Posted by MarkP on 09-04-06 at 02:06 PM
I think it is pretty clear to us that taking Boogie is the better move, but what I am trying to find out is who everyone thinks Janie will actually take if this situation occurs? I still think she takes Will, but like I said I'm 60/40 on that. Does she take Will or Boogie? I would especially like to know who the Janie supporters think she will take.
"RE: I hope she wakes up"
Posted by yamihooked on 09-04-06 at 03:17 PM
But if she takes Will, then Mike, Dani, and Erika may still vote for Will. It's largely a wash on three votes.
"RE: I hope she wakes up"
Posted by Savahnna on 09-04-06 at 04:21 PM
There is still room for manipulation!


You bet.

And you can count on it.

"RE: I hope she wakes up"
Posted by AZ_Leo on 09-04-06 at 02:40 PM
The fact that she and the others let Will get this far was the biggest mistake. I don't think she stands a chance against either.

As someone pointed out on another thread, the danger of sending Will to the sequester house is that he will have more than enough time to convince the jurors to vote for Mike. He manipulated them in the house and he can do it on the jury. He only has to turn a couple of people to vote Boogie and almost a week to do it in. He would barely work up a sweat on that one.
I think her only chance would have been against Erika because I suspect Will would have preferred Jani to win in that scenario. She almost has a better chance if she keeps Will in the house as part of the final 2 because then he only has the final speech to make sure he has enough votes. As he himself said, he works better when he has time.


A tribephyl original

"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by Bob Tomato on 09-04-06 at 02:35 PM
I'm pretty certain she will take Will and I say this for 2 reasons - First, he will have some days to work on her to persuade her that he is the right choice over Boogie, for all sorts of reasons that will seem crazy to us out here but will make sense to her in there. She has always drunk the kool-aid he has served in the past.

Second, she really does like him and given the choice between the two, would probably rather spend a few days alone in the Big Brother house with Will than Boogie. She has been pretty short sighted at other times and may not look beyond those few days when making her decision.

"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by bdemoney on 09-04-06 at 04:19 PM
>I'm pretty certain she will take Will and I say this for 2 reasons - First, he will have some days to work on her to
>persuade her that he is the right choice over Boogie, for all sorts of reasons that will seem crazy to us out here but will
>make sense to her in there. She has always drunk the kool-aid he has served in the past.
>
>Second, she really does like him and given the choice between
>the two, would probably rather spend a few days alone in the Big Brother house with Will than Boogie. She has been pretty short sighted at other times and may not look beyond those
>few days when making her decision.

I agree with your reasoning 100% Bob. I totally think Will can and will convince her to take him to the final two. Especially because of reason number two. I think Janelle would much rather spend her final days with Will alone than with Boogie.

But if she does this, Will will win...

Dani said she would vote for the better player and I think James will as well. Since we know they both think Janelle only wins things from cheating (which isn't true, but seems to be their perception) and they both realize that Will has been pulling all the strings in the house, Will will get their vote. Mike and Erika will also vote for Will, which would make him the winner.

I guess there is a slight chance that Dani and James may think Janie was the better player which leaves a remote chance she might actually win against Will (as Buggy stated earlier) but I highly doubt it. Will will manipulate the jury just as he did in the house.

Whereas Boogie would lose to Janelle in a jury vote. He does not have Will's persuasive qualities and is not nearly as likable. So I am almost convinced Janelle would win against him. He is not seen as the puppet master, Will is, even to the houseguests who have not seen the tapes already.

That's why when she picks Will it will be the worst decision she's ever made.

So unless she finally puts the kool-aid down and starts thinking with a clear head, she will come in second to Will.


"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by pumpkinqueen on 09-04-06 at 02:43 PM
i don't know. i think Janie is caught between a rock and a hard place. if she takes Boogie, then Will has time in sequester--i think--to talk up Boogie and trash Janelle. if she takes Will, i don't think Boogie will be able to change any votes, but i don't think he would have to do much because Will has played a very good game.

i'm not sure how much time Will would have in sequester because i'm not sure about the schedule, but he can work pretty fast. plus, he has plenty of ammo based on all the trash talking the HGs did while they were in the house--about how Janie cheated and they re-did comps so she would win and all that. i have no idea how anyone could "talk up" Boogie, but if anyone can do it Will will.

i'm going to hold out hope for Janie--because i'm stubborn like that--but i think taking Erika would be the best option. if it is a Will/Janie final 2, then it comes down to whether the jurors want to reward Janie's comp domination or Will's brilliant manipulation.


Fembots by Tribe: L.O.J., One for all, all for Janelle!

i obviously love Janie and can't stand Boogie, which probably fracks up my reasoning.

"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by JoshInSGV on 09-04-06 at 06:31 PM
If you end up in third place, I believe you only spend a few days in sequester, less then a week. When Janelle went out third last year, I think she only spent two or three days in Napa before the live finale. A couple of days may be more than what Will needs to work on the jury. But, I'm also sure that the jury has already been comparing notes and perhaps Will would be stepping in too late to manipulate anyone.

I think Janelle has painted herself into a corner. No matter who gets evicted this week, she's the third wheel. Whether Will or Erika survive this week, they will not take Janelle to the Final 2 if they win the final HOH. That means that Janelle has to win the last HOH, if she wants to make it to finals. She should really take Erika along with her, but Erika would take Boogie to Final 2. And Erika is a strong competitor for endurance competitions. If she keeps Will, he's gonna throw the final HOH because he would feel certain that no matter who wins, he'll be taken to the finals. The worst thing Janelle can do is take Will to the finals. It would be equivalent to Ivette's blunder of taking Maggot to the Finals last year. If Erika gets evicted, which most likely she will, Janelle needs to take Boogie if she expects to have any opportunity at taking the money.

"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by Estee on 09-04-06 at 04:38 PM
I think she takes Will, and I think Ivette has a long talk with her after the finale.



"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by Undertow12345 on 09-04-06 at 05:40 PM
I have a question..which is Erika going to try and get janie to put down will instead of her?
I mean then our question is....will janey take E and win?
Did I miss something or when is Erika going to make her move and really lay it on the line with janelle about all the stuff Will has said about her?
Is she waiting for the live show so Will cannot do his hypnotizing routine on her before she votes?
She had better.
"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by Denalio on 09-04-06 at 06:00 PM
Two words: Banana Bread


Don't forget to take into consideration that CT told both Janelle and Erika (seperately) that they would split the money. I think it is certainly part of the reasons both J and E have nominated each other and not CT.

"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by MarkP on 09-04-06 at 06:11 PM
Ok - only a few actual solid votes and all point towards Janelle taking Will. I'm surprised that with so many people believing that Janie is playing a good strategic game that nobody thinks that she would take Boogie. Perhaps the polls will have a late surge in favor of Boogie. Lets hear from the voters.
"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by how do people miss these things on 09-04-06 at 06:21 PM
what does this have to do with the live feeds?
"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by MarkP on 09-04-06 at 06:32 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-04-06 AT 06:59 PM (EST)

>what does this have to do
>with the live feeds?

Considering the live feeders see and know so much more than the folks who just watch the edited shows every week, I wanted to know what they thought Janelle would do considering her actions thus far in the house. I don't really care for an answer from people who watch (or listen to) only what they are shown on tv because as we all know that does not tell the entire story. A good percent of the posts on the "Live Feeds" board are not strictly recaps on the live feeds. The are discussion and speculations based on what we have seen and read concerning the live feeds. I hope this answered your question.

See Estee's answer which is actually much better than mine.

"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by Estee on 09-04-06 at 06:49 PM
This section of the board is also for discussion of events which the general public isn't aware of yet. Those who only watch the edited show don't know Janelle's won POV and has automatically advanced to the final three -- so speculation on who she'd take with her if she won the final HoH goes here. After all, the last the rest of the country heard, she'd been nominated for eviction. Not a good place to start thinking about a voting strategy from.


"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by Bebo on 09-04-06 at 07:48 PM
>what does this have to do
>with the live feeds?

This is the Live Feeds and Spoilers forum. Janelle winning POV and therefore a guaranteed spot in the Final 3 definitely qualifies as a spoiler at this point.


"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by true on 09-04-06 at 07:06 PM
I know I posted this elsewhere, but since there is a new thread about it, here is what I saw yesterday...

Erika told Boogie that she told Jani that she could not beat Will at final 2. According to Erika (since I didn't see the actual conversation) Jani said that she would take Boogie over Will if she wins the final HOH because she isn't stupid.

Later, Boogie had a convo with Will and Jani, making sure it was clear to Janelle that CT would take each other to the end, and not Jani. After Boogie left, Will told Jani that if she got to choose, that it might be in her best interest to take Boogie over him to the finals. He went on to tell her that she should do what is best for her personally.

Was she lying to Erika? I have no idea. I'm not even positive that Erika wasn't making the whole thing up, but you could check Jokers or Clubhouse for the conversation transcript.

"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by MarkP on 09-04-06 at 09:10 PM
LAST EDITED ON 09-05-06 AT 01:09 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 09-04-06 AT 09:22 PM (EST)

My odds just changed to 80/20 she takes Will. Will and Janie are lying there talking about why she didn't get rid oh him earlier and he said "Because you were starting to get a crush on me right"...her response "Yea - I wouldn't want to be here if you weren't here.". She seems VERY sincere.

Update - Make the 90/10 she takes Will. Will has this great move now that as they are both lying in bed in leans over to whisper something to her so that the Internet can't hear it. Who knows what he is saying, but the physical act of his mouth in her ear is going to be something she remembers. He's done that several times in the last 15 minutes and her smile just keeps getting bigger and bigger.

Update - make that 50/50 after Janelle's conversation last night with Erika. As much as I love Will, I am still fond of Janie and if she boots him tonight it would be a moment to remember.

"RE: Which CT member does Janie take IF..."
Posted by fedcamper on 09-05-06 at 03:23 AM
She should take Erica, she'l probably take Will, but is that such a bad move? No one is commenting on the "Survivor" effect- namely, everyone hates to let anyone win twice, even someone as beloved and deserving as Ethan. So, that might be enough in the end to beat Will.