URL: http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi
Forum: DCForumID87
Thread Number: 640
[ Go back to previous page ]
Original Message
"Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by Estee on 03-02-10 at 08:16 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-02-10 AT 09:09 AM (EST)

ETA: Partners:

(Note: partner influence can change some of this in a hurry, but not all):

Buzz Aldrin (Astronaut) (w. Ashly Costa (returning))

Advantages: Senior vote, historical interest. Retired military tend to be in better shape than the average person in his age bracket. Used to learning under pressure.

Disadvantages: Quality of American education means very few people know who he is. Doesn't have a real preshow fanbase and has to pick up viewers as he goes along.

Wild cards: Still has core of people insisting he was on a movie set: small children may be tricked into voting to support Buzz Lightyear.

Result: Probably one of the first three out.

Pamela Anderson (Actress, icon) (w. Damian Whitewood (rookie))

Advantages: May have the most recognizable name in the field. Large, determined preexisting fanbase. Knows how to work publicity angles as well as anyone in the pack.

Disadvantages: Hated by a large number of women for any reason they can invent at the time: will have to work hard to get votes from the other side of the gender aisle, and it may be a lost cause going in. Most likely to get blasted by Len for just existing.

Wild cards: Strong sense of humor: willing to play up her image for laughs. Could bring exes into play for both results show performances and votes.

Results: Can probably hang on until fifth place. might be able to go further.

Erin Andrews (Sports reporter) (w. Maksim Chmerkovskiy)

Advantages: Gets a lot more of the ESPN fanbase than the athletes in the field do. Almost has a dancer's build going into this, not that it means much. Wittier than people give her credit for and could do well in a live interview.

Disadvantages: Seen as a pre-programmed talking head by a lot of people (mostly female, some male) no matter what she does. Has already been blasted for daring to wear comfortable clothing on hot days: gawds only know what the ultra-conservative voters will think of dancing costumes. Not as much name recognition as she needs.

Wild cards: Can tap into any athletic training facility you care to name for some expert advice. Knows things about this year's athletes that they'd rather not have revealed and could potentially blackmail someone out. Double-duty on DanceCenter!

Results: Mid-field.

Shannen Doherty (Actress) (w. Mark Ballas)

Advantages: Has a lot of name recognition despite having largely sat on the sidelines for the last decade-plus: never completely faded from public awareness. Fanbase is at the early end of the Internet generation and should know how to work texting for maximum benefit.

Disadvantages: Lingering memories of all those headlines from her time on her original show. Still has a lot of people who dislike her. Perceived as a drama queen.

Wild cards: Not much unless she gets into a hair-pulling fight with another competition, which could go either way.

Results: Early exit.

Kate Gosselin (Harridan) (w. Tony Dovolani (poor Tony))

Advantages: Tons of name recognition. Existing fanbase is incredibly loyal and cannot be talked out of voting for her no matter what the actual floor evidence looks like.

Disadvantages. Fanbase is a little smaller than it used to be (and never consisted of that many people to begin with). Will have the tabloids jumping down her throat the whole time. Inevitable perception that just by being on this show, she's abandoning her children. Completely incapable of taking advice, listening to another person's opinion, or learning: could not be talked into grabbing a life ring while drowning.

Wild cards: Can bring kids to performances in attempts to lure 'Awww...' vote. Should pick up a few people every time Jon does something stupid, which he will, he will...

Results: Goes around midseason.

Evan Lysacek (Figure Skater) (w. Anna Trebunskaya)

Advantages: Basically already does this and just has to adjust his moves. Coming in right after the Winter Olympics, so his name recognition is as high as it could be, plus people might just follow him across the channels. Gets to ride the reputation of other (former) contestants as well as his own.

Disadvantages: If he talks about this too publicly, the other contestants might justifiably murder him.

Wild cards: Carrie-Ann might go into full Kara mode and tongue bathe him to death.

Result: Top three.

Niecy Nash (Comedian, actress) (w. Louis Van Amstel)

Advantages: None. Seriously: none whatsoever. Her show has a cult following, but it's not a very large cult. Gets no headlines (good or bad), is known by virtually no one outside of dedicated Comedy Central watchers, and may not even have her name spelled right in the credits.

Disadvantages: Who?

Wild cards: For her, it's all about the partner: if she gets a male with a popular following, could hang on for a little while based on his votes. Otherwise...

Results: Don't unpack.

Chad Ochocinco (Active NFL Wide receiver) (w. Cheryl Burke)

Advantages: We know him whether we want to or not. The single most Internet and tech-savvy person in the field: will work his website, Twitter, blog, iPhone app, and every other bit of code he can scrounge for votes. Should provide the most complete behind-the-scenes look we've ever had at the show, along with the most biased one. Natural athletic ability could translate to dance: other football players have made the transition well.

Disadvantages: People know him, but very few of them like him. Has a giant ego: (repeat with added echo and reverb) a giant ego. Will insist on being in the spotlight on every dance: potentially unable to give equal time to his partner. Perceived as a jerk most of the time because in the past, he was a jerk most of the time and hasn't improved much since. Largely incapable of short-term self-control and over the long term, has none. Could easily say a few words at the wrong time and destroy what little chance he has, not to mention taking ABC off the air.

Wild cards: (May not be achieved by the Bengals as long as he's on the team.) Has a weird little-boy charisma that works for as much as ten seconds at a time before it wears off forever. Keeps getting people to take chances on him against their better judgment.

Results: Out earlier than he thinks he'll be, with occasional bouts of excruciating throughout -- but if he works everything he has, cheating included, could see the finals. He just won't win.

Jake Pavelka (Former bachelor) (w. Chelsie Hightower (poor Chelsie))

Advantages: Comes into this directly from finishing his own series, so there won't be much time for people to forget him. Prior crossover went well for its participant. Has abs.

Disadvantages: Has no brain. People now hate him. Oh, do they hate him. You may think people hate serial killers, but him? Dexter Morgan could take the floor labeled with his real occupation and not get as much hate mail as this one would. Will lose a thousand votes every time they show his intended in the audience, so that's fifteen thousand per episode, and they add up.

Wild cards: Can blame the editing -- no, he won't. Because his previous show is never edited to set anything up. Not at all. Not that anyone's ever been able to tell. And this? Is the most dramatic wild card notation of the thread.

Results: Had better hope he can dance, because the fanbase half of the vote is gonna kill him. With talent, out as soon as the field thins a little: without it, had better start finding sponsors for his training equipment line.

Nicole Scherzinger (Singer) (w. Derek Hough)

Advantages: Dance experience plus substantial amount of reality TV experience: has been both contestant and judge before this and knows the process from just about every conceivable angle. Should be able to work the potential editing better than anyone in the field.

Disadvantages: Both of her prior band labels work against her more than they work for her. Fanbase is present, but can't match the numbers some of the others can put up -- enough baseline to last a while, but will have trouble adding to it. Most likely to get blasted by Carrie-Ann for not learning fast enough.

Wild cards: Has some chance to really work with her partner on choreographing unique routines: if she can make her stage experience cross over and be acceptable to the panel, her scores could keep her in this. Can do double-duty as results show performer and contestant, which means the series has a vested interest in trying to keep her around.

Results: Late midfield with a small chance to see the finals.

Aiden Turner (Actor) (w. Edyta Silwinska)

Advantages: Conventionally attractive in the soap opera way. Like all soap actors, is used to learning under major time pressure.

Disadvantages: Soaps are dead.

Wild cards: Could have talent. Might get a great partner. Has the same potential as anyone to dance into America's heart.

Results: Cannon fodder.

Next?

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by Snidget on 03-02-10 at 08:26 AM
Niecy has been a correspondent on The Insider for awhile (or some such entertainment news program) and quite often gets on clip shows like The Soup so may have a few people outside of the Comedy Central Crowd.

I just don't know how much that will translate into fan base but I've seen enough of her outside of Reno 911 to have a mostly favorable opinion of her as a person. I just don't know if people generally like her personality which can keep her around for a few weeks if she can dance OK, or will find her too OTT obnoxious. Comedy types can go either way.

"Again"
Posted by jbug on 03-02-10 at 09:48 AM
a whole bunch of people I never heard of. I am so out of it.

Pamela Anderson
At least this one I have heard of

Chad Ochocinco
Don't keep up with sports so never heard of this guy till now.

Aiden Turner
have seen a pic now & then - I think

Kate Gosselin
yes, have heard of this one - how can you not have? - never watched the show that is the train wreck.

Jake Pavelka
well, yea, but if this had been 6 months after his fiasco, I'd have forgotten him

Shannen Doherty
never heard of her

Buzz Aldrin
yep, I'm old - was around when this name first hit the news

Evan Lysacek
only heard of him because of Olymipcs

Erin Andrews
again, not a sports follower so...

Nicole Scherzinger
never heard of this one either

Niecy Nash
never watched Reno 911 - don't have a clue as to what it's about (is it an emergency show?)


Crusin w/ Tribe

"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by kathliam on 03-02-10 at 10:08 AM
I thought it might be helpful to have additional information about who the pros have been paired with in the past to try to handicap how they will be able to influence/train their amateur partners:

Ashley Costa (formerly danced as Ashley DelGrosso) - dancing with Buzz Aldrin, has previously danced with Harry Hamlin, Master P and Joey McIntyre.

Chelsie Hightower - dancing with Jake Pavelka (the most recent Bachelor, for those of you who steer clear of that forum), previously paired with Louis Vito and Ty Murray.

Anna Trebunskaya - skating dancing with Evan Lysacek, previously paired with Chuck Liddell, Jerry Rice (finished 2nd in Season 2), Albert Reed and Steve Guttenberg.

Cheryl Burke - dancing paired with Chad Ochocinco, previously paired with Tom DeLay, Gilles Marini, Maurice Green, Cristian de la Fuente, Wayne Newton, Ian Zering, Emmitt Smith (winner - Season 3) and Drew Lachey (winner - Season 2).

Damian Whitewood - dancing with Pamela Anderson, a rookie this year. He's from Australia.

Derek Hough - paired with Nicole Scherzinger, previously danced with Joanna Krupa, Lil' Kim, Brooke Burke, Shannon Elizabeth, and Jennie Garth.

Edyta Sliwinska - dancing with Aiden Turner, previously paired with Ashley Hamilton, Lawrence Taylor, Jeff Ross, Jason Taylor, Cameron Mathison, John Ratzenberger, Vincent Pastore, Joey Lawrence, George Hamilton and Evander Holyfield.

Louis Van Amstel - dancing with Niecy Nash, previously danced with Kelly Osbourne, Priscilla Presley, Monique Coleman, Lisa Rinna, and Trista Rehn Sutter.

Maksim Chmerkovsky - dancing with Erin Andrews, previously paired with Debi Mazar, Denise Richards, Misty May-Treanor, Mel B (2nd in Season 5), Laila Ali (finals, Season 4), Willa Ford, and Tia Carrere.

Mark Ballas - dancing with Shannen Doherty, previously paired with Melissa Joan Hart, Shawn Johnson (winner - Season 8), Kim Kardashian, and Kristi Yamaguchi (winner - Season 6).

Tony Dovolani - paired with Kate Gosselin, previously paired with Kathy Ireland, Melissa Rycroft, Susan Lucci, Marissa Jaret Winokur, Jane Seymour, Leeza Gibbons and Stacy Keibler.

Sometimes the pairs who do best are the ones where the professional is at least as good a choreographer as a dancer and can teach their amateur to their strengths.


I've been cap'n'd

Plus, sometimes I'm just a sucker for useless bits of trivia and just feel the urge to pass it along -- whether you need it or not.

"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by Snidget on 03-02-10 at 10:14 AM
Buzz--Will probably get at least a week or two for the being 80 and an American Hero thing.

Pamela--Not sure how long she'll last, I don't know if her fan base will pull away from watching her skimpy outfit frame by frame long enough to vote.

Erin--May get a good amount of the sports vote, She's probably going to need to be a pretty good dancer to go far. Hard to guess if she'll end up more like the overly stiff model type or be like Stacy Keibler. She could tap into that same fan base if she dances well.

Shannon--May have more of a hate club than a fan club. At least there is only one season of this because otherwise she'd quit halfway through. If she can work the redemption edit she might do well, but she's going to have to work hard for votes.

Kate--Will likely have a group of rabid Team Kate fans. May not be able to expand her fan base beyond that.

Evan--If he can keep some of the aw shucks personality he showed after being a gracious winner he can go far. May be a bit robotic for those who weren't Olympics fans, has some reputation for being arrogant. He is known to be a very hard worker so will put in the practice time. *makes popcorn in preparation for the first reporter to ask Evgeni what he thinks of this new venture*

Nicey--funny doesn't always work on DWTS. Does seem to have a personality that can stand out and thay will help if she comes off as likable.

Chad--Big Ego may be a problem. Lots of people know him, but I don't know how many like him. Does know how to self-promote so that may help him.

Jake--Outside of Bachelor world people won't know who he is. People may hold his final choice against him. They should have gotten Tenley, she looks cute and was screwed over so would go a long way. But they needed guys.

Nicole--Ringer used to wearing very skimpy outfits. She will need to have personality and likeability to win or she'll be a bit too much like Maya--good but robotic so may get to the finals but can't win.

Aiden--may do well fan base wise with the soap opera thing, will probably need to dance competently to get far.

"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by Belle Book on 03-02-10 at 04:53 PM
Where did you learn that Evan has a reputation for being arrogant? Just wondering.


"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by Snidget on 03-02-10 at 05:01 PM
Reading about the whole Olympic kerfluffle. Different parts of the ice skating world seem to have different views on Evgeni and Evan than what you see played out on US TV media coverage.
"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by Belle Book on 03-03-10 at 04:52 PM
Ah, I see. Actually, I thought Evgeni was the arrogant one -- he seemed to me to be thinking that he deserved to win because he did a clean quad and Evan didn't even try to do one because he had pain in his foot after he practiced a quad, and I feel that ice skating at its best is a balance between artistry and athleticism. I think the quad for the men (and the triple Axel for women) should be the thing that decides the gold medal -- if all other things are equal.

By that, I mean that if both Evan and Evgeni had done all their triple jumps clean, did fine spins and had great footwork, then the quad should be the factor that decides who won the gold. But I saw Evgeni's first triple Axel -- he stumbled out of it. I also saw a few jumps he did that were tilted in the air and he somehow was able to land them cleanly. So that's why I think Evan deserved the gold and Evgeni was a sore loser.

But getting back to the original comments, I may believe that Evgeni was arrogant because I feel he overestimated the quad and believed that he deserved to win because he could do a clean quad, but I guess other parts of the ice skating world can see the same thing differently. And confidence can be mistaken as arrogance -- or be a cover for insecurity. I don't think Evan's insecure, but he could be confident and it could be mistaken for arrogance, Snidget.


"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by udg on 03-03-10 at 10:17 PM
>Ah, I see. Actually, I
>thought Evgeni was the arrogant
>one -- he seemed to
>me to be thinking that
>he deserved to win because
>he did a clean quad
>and Evan didn't even try
>to do one...

The only interview I saw with Evan he came across really well. Evgeni sounded like a sore loser, and Evan didn't come down to his level. Now, maybe he didn't do so well in other interviews, I don't know, but in this case, he didn't sound at all arrogant.

I think there's some bad blood between Evan and Johnny Weir, but I don't know the details, whether Evan has said anything unreasonably critical on that front or not. Personally, I think Weir would be MUCH more interesting to watch on DWTS.


Slice n' Dice's Sigpic Chop Shop 2004

"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by Snidget on 03-04-10 at 09:18 AM
What I was referring to wasn't just the recent flap, but more of some ongoing reputations I've heard that have to do with media that isn't just the USA.

Evgeni did come off as a sore loser at this time, but has generally had a good reputation in the press and from what people who have met him say.

Evan doesn't seem to get a good edit in the foreign press from what I was reading.

Now editing can sway perception a lot, and some people don't translate well across cultures. I think some of the Evan stuff is from previous comments about how ice skating should be more manly and how that plays in cultures where men can be artistic and cultured and not be considered too girly.

"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by Belle Book on 03-04-10 at 04:21 PM
Yeah, I can see that. Cultural perceptions can play a big role in how people are seen. For example, male skaters from the former Soviet Union can wear clothes that in their culture is just fine but is quite bewildering when they skate in North America. It's a cultural issue.


"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by vince3 on 03-02-10 at 10:39 AM
Niecy has one more fan outlet not yet mentioned....... for however little it may be worth.

She is the host of the Style Network's Clean House series (when she's not busy with other projects, that is.........)

"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by qwertypie on 03-02-10 at 10:40 PM
Oh -- that's why the name is familiar.
"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by Belle Book on 03-02-10 at 04:50 PM
Thanks for handicapping the field!

The other contestants might justifiably murder Evan if he talks too much about it? Hope he doesn't, then!


"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by toad8098 on 03-02-10 at 05:30 PM
Here's my list/predictions:

11. Shannen Doherty - I just don't see her having any fire in her dancing, plus her fan base is probably a little thin now.
10. Niecy Nash - Might impress some people simply because of her attitude, but has poor fan base.
9. Buzz Aldrin - won't make it far simply based on age. Could get some sympathy votes depending on how many people really don't like Jake, Chad & Kate.
6-8. Jake Pavelka, Chad Ochocinco, Kate Gosselin - all depends if they can actually dance and how many people actually like them.
5. Pamela Anderson - might have the guys' votes split between her & Erin. Likely has a bigger fan base than Jake, Chad & Kate and I think could impress a lot of people.
4. Erin Andrews - might make top 3 of Aiden Turner can't dance. But will the female fans know who she is??
TOP 3
- Evan Lysacek
- Nicole Scherzinger
- Aiden Turner
Evan should be given a bye until the final 5. Nicole has the background to make it this far, it's just a matter of people finding out who she is. If Aiden can't dance, he's out midseason. Otherwise, he's in the top 3.

"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by Belle Book on 03-03-10 at 04:55 PM
I was thinking that Evan and Nicole would make the finals, but I was thinking that Erin would be there instead of Aiden. I also had Nicey out first, but it could be Shannen instead.

Incidentally, I know who Erin is -- but not for a good reason. Still, being stalked should win her sympathy votes.


"RE: Season 10: Handicapping the field."
Posted by HistoryDetective on 03-03-10 at 07:36 AM
Kate Gosselin (Harridan)

Bwahahahaha!