URL: http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi
Forum: DCForumID75
Thread Number: 71
[ Go back to previous page ]

Original Message
"Handicapping the Apprentice"

Posted by frodo2 on 09-25-04 at 07:19 AM
I'm splitting the people in Apprentice into risk brackets. "High Risk" means that this person could be fired next show. "Moderate Risk means they probably won't make it all the way through" "Low Risk" means that they have a good chance of winning the show. Within each bracket I've ordered from the most likely to the least likely. Right now, Kelly is winning, followed by Kevin, who improvised a great backup plan when Andy's idea failed.

Fired
-----
Rob
Bradford
Stacie J

High Risk
---------
Ivana
Maria
Andy
Elizabeth

Moderate Risk
-------------
Pamela
John
Wes
Stacy R
Chris
Jennifer C

Low Risk
--------
Raj
Sandy
Jennifer M
Kevin
Kelly


Table of contents

Messages in this discussion
"RE: Handicapping the Apprentice"
Posted by frodo2 on 09-25-04 at 07:21 AM
Interesting to note that even though Jennifer C hasn't had a serious business mistake, she's too immeshed in politics at this point, and it probably result in her being a Katrina.

"RE: Handicapping the Apprentice"
Posted by Pepito on 09-25-04 at 09:16 AM
Well done, Frodo. The only point of disagreement is that I would flip Pamela and Andy. Andy is a contributor -- sure, wild ideas, but it was the seed that got his team rolling on a decent idea that was good enough to allow P&G to justify giving them a win when Apex screwed up. The final test will be when he is actually a PM. If his team wins, he may actually become low risk.

I think Pamela is on Donald's "To Be Fired" List. I don't think that Carolyn will ever get past the Dumb & Dumber incident with her, and another mistake will break the camel's back. Also, she separates herself and shows off in front of her team (ice cream factory incident, dining out incidences...), so when Mosaic loses, she will very likely be in the boardroom fighting to stay alive.

I do agree with your comment about Jenn C. She's trouble, her team just doesn't seem to have recognized it yet.


"RE: Handicapping the Apprentice"
Posted by LBIslander on 09-27-04 at 03:03 AM
I pretty much agree, except, again, with Andy. I'd keep him in moderate for awhile.

I think the guys might lose this one, only because Carolyn was much softer in the boardroom previews where she is saying that (someone) failed. She's so scathingly disgusted when she talks to the women, and her look on the preview is much different.

So in that case, if the men lose.. I'll guess Chris or john could be at risk.


"RE: Handicapping the Apprentice"
Posted by TeamJoisey on 09-27-04 at 11:53 AM
I wouldn't classify Andy as high risk, either. He's been creative in his thinking, and hasn't made any serious errors.

But of all men, he is probably most at-risk. I say this because he has gotten a lot of face time, and the midseason boots usually get a lot of face time at thtis point. You could say the same of Raj, I suppose, but he's been prominent because he's the class clown.



These reality show contestants need a reality check!


"RE: Handicapping the Apprentice"
Posted by xserver on 09-29-04 at 00:47 AM
Yeah, this list looks good, but Andy seems low risk to me. He has ideas even though they don't always work out. I think the boardroom skills may help him prevail, much like Kwame did last season.

I might put Wes in the high risk category, but I don't have a real strong feeling about that.


"RE: Handicapping the Apprentice"
Posted by subman on 09-29-04 at 10:37 AM
Kevin? Why is in this country that we constantly reward people for supposedly coming to the rescue of one bad idea with another bad idea? If the team had just listened to me in the first place and my idea for the tooth people, the team's victory would have been assured from the start. When I'm not in charge there is complete chaos within the ranks. I'm surrounded by idiots.



"RE: Handicapping the Apprentice"
Posted by jackandjill on 09-29-04 at 01:25 PM
I think Raj should be on the high or moderate list only because I don't think Donald Trump wants someone who wears a bow tie, carries a cane, and wears red pants as a PM of a major project that bears Trumps name.

Donald says repeatedly that image is everything - Raj does not have the image that Donald is looking for.


"RE: Handicapping the Apprentice"
Posted by djandy on 09-29-04 at 02:34 PM
Other than switching Wes to High Risk and Andy to Moderate Risk, I agree with your list. I have the same top 3, but my order would show Jen M. to be the winner, with Kelly 2nd, and Kevin 3rd.

djandy
S8 ABC Red Ink Champ, S7 ABPABC Red Ink Champ, CMY FOMO Red Ink Champ


"9/30/2004 Update"
Posted by frodo2 on 09-30-04 at 11:52 AM
LAST EDITED ON 09-30-04 AT 11:53 AM (EST)

Jen C. was fired this week, so I'm updating the roster. If you read my earlier comment, you'll note that I said she'd get too emeshed in politics. It happened more quickly than I suspected, but it did happen.

here's my new list:
Fired
-----
Rob
Bradford
Stacie J
Jennifer C

High Risk
---------
Ivana
Maria
Andy
Elizabeth

Moderate Risk
-------------
Stacy R
Pamela
Sandy
Chris
John
Wes


Low Risk
--------
Jennifer M
Raj
Kevin
Kelly


Raj, Jen M, Kevin, and Kelly remain in the Low risk bracket. I give extra respect to Kevin for calling the women on their bullsh!t. It won't help him when teams remix, but he wasn't alone in saying this, and the women were more concerned with turning on Elizabeth than getting mad at a guy who disagreed with him.

Another thing that's interesting is that this group tends to hold grudges past tasks. That's totally destroying the women.

Stacy R goes higher on the moderate risk list for her tendency to gossip, but she still doesn't go to high risk because despite her annoyingness, she hasn't caused the group to fail.

Sandy drops out of the low risk bracket because Trump and Carolyn asked for her by name.


"10/30/04 Update"
Posted by frodo2 on 10-12-04 at 10:32 AM
Based on the firing of Pamela, I have a new ranking.

here's my new list:
Fired
-----
Rob
Bradford
Stacie J
Jennifer C
Pamela

High Risk
---------
Ivana
Maria
Sandy
Andy
Elizabeth


Moderate Risk
-------------
Stacy R
John
Wes
Chris


Low Risk
--------
Jennifer M
Raj
Kevin
Kelly


My changes are minor this time. I moved Chris to a position above Wes because he was a succesful Project Manager. However, I'm not moving him to the low risk bracket because he still hasn't shown much.

I debated flipping Ivana and Maria around, but I think they'll probably get fired around the same time. Rumors have indicated that Ivana makes it into the top 8, but I'd like to have that verified first. Trump has asked for Ivana by name twice, so she's in the dog house as far as I know.

Sandy is at a higher level of risk now because last week, Trump asked for her in the boardroom and this week, he thought she should have been there as well.

One difficulty in handicapping the apprentice so far is that the men are much stronger as a group than first season. It's harder to differentiate between individual weaknesses.


"RE: 10/30/04 Update"
Posted by oncebitten on 10-12-04 at 11:31 AM
LAST EDITED ON 10-12-04 AT 11:35 AM (EST)

I believe that Sandy will be one of the next fired. There were 2 tasks in a row: The restaurant and QVC where DT asked why Sandy wasn't there. Carolyn called her out saying that she didn't really do anything (can't remember the exact words).
Her days are numbered.


"RE: 10/30/04 Update"
Posted by Oscirus on 10-14-04 at 02:02 PM
Id put ivan and elizabeth in moderate risk, Stacy in high risk, Andy and raj in Moderate risk (I think Donald is still fuming over Raj's cane).



"RE: Handicapping the Apprentice"
Posted by frodo2 on 11-24-04 at 08:29 AM
It's time for this month's update. This will probably be the last one I do for this season, since the show is almost over.

Based on the firings of the last month, I have a new ranking.
here's my new list:
Fired
-----
Rob
Bradford
Stacie J
Jennifer C
Pamela
John
Elizabeth
Stacy R
Raj
Chris
Maria
Wes


Remaining Candidates (in order of expected firing)
-----
Sandy
Ivana
Andy
Kevin
Jennifer M
Kelly


Note that I've removed the Moderate, High, and Low risk pools. I did that early on to group the candidates so that I could think about them more easily. There are few enough left now that I can make a general prediction

I think I've been pretty much spot on except that Andy and Ivana were able to reverse the course from their beginning experiences. Andy showed that he's an excellent leader and can handle control freaks like Maria, a feat that Wes was incapable of. Ivana hasn't gotten much better, but she has wily survival skills that have kept her in the game even if she's not a good businesswoman.

There will be another double-firing during the interview episode, so the results of it are hard to predict, but I presume that Andy will go down then due to his age, and Kevin, because he shows stress physically, which the executives won't like.

Trying to outguess the apprentice has been something of a great game. I only wish the season would have gone better with more qualified women and better firings from Trump.