Scotty, James, Lauren, Haley. Which one will be the winner?

Will we have a "surprise" winner, like Kris Allen in season 8? Or will we have a repeat of the country star versus the rocker theme, like Carrie versus Bo Bice in season 4? Or some new theme? Who do you think will make the F2? Who is going to win?

I've been thinking it is the season 4 theme repeat for awhile; Scotty versus James. Scotty was pimped by Nigel on a talk show before the season even began. James has been pimped quite a bit, from audition rounds through gentle remarks when emotion overtook his second performance this week. Season 4 was a successful season and launched AI's most successful star. Scotty seems primed to repeat that feat.

Lauren was an early pimp, too, but her confidence issues appear to have them easing her into a third place finish ...I'm guessing she gets the pimp spot this week to seal her votes ( and her fans were already put on notice with her bottom 2 appearance)...and should Lauren go out at third place, then likely the country voters would switch to Scotty in a Scotty/James finale, ensuring a Scotty win.

Unless. Unless Haley dark horses her way into the finale.

I am confused about the show's treatment of Haley. She, like the other three, got ample early exposure. But Haley is the most oft criticized of the F4. She seems to have had a turning point--some may point to Bennie and the Jets, but I'd call it as Rolling in the Deep. Is the show trying to change horses from Lauren to Haley at this late stage?

Do the producers/Jimmy want a female in the F2? Is this the time when James gets edged out for Haley?

Which F2 combo would get the biggest ratings?

I'm thinking James has a solid fan base. And that he has something up his sleeve yet to wow the audience and gain more fans. Something acapella perhaps. Maybe this week with Lieber and Stoller. James adds fun to the night. An F3 or F2 without James would be less fun.

Final answer, before the F4 performs: Scotty for the win because the country voters are that strong. James for the runner up. Lauren in third. Haley out this week, with no more pimp spot placement to help her. If Lauren chokes this week, then just switch up Lauren and Haley.

• RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,cahaya, 12:38 PM, 05-08-11
• Easy answer.,Estee, 01:23 PM, 05-08-11
  • RE: Easy answer.,zazzy, 08:25 AM, 05-09-11
• RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,Belle Book, 04:44 PM, 05-08-11
  • RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,zazzy, 08:23 AM, 05-09-11
• RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,Max Headroom, 08:37 AM, 05-09-11
  • RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,zazzy, 11:00 AM, 05-09-11
    • RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,Snidget, 06:09 PM, 05-11-11
• RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,frodis, 01:15 PM, 05-09-11
• RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,bleespoorpa, 08:19 AM, 05-10-11
• RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,emydi, 10:21 AM, 05-10-11
• Minors and contracts.,Estee, 05:34 PM, 05-11-11
  • RE: Minors and contracts.,Snidget, 06:07 PM, 05-11-11
  • RE: Minors and contracts.,Maroonclown, 09:57 AM, 05-12-11
• RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,Snidget, 06:05 PM, 05-11-11
  • RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,zazzy, 07:02 PM, 05-11-11
    • RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,Snidget, 07:11 PM, 05-11-11
• RE: Down to the top 4: who is going to win?,csnumber23, 00:41 AM, 05-12-11
• The bookies say...,cahaya, 11:30 AM, 05-12-11
  • RE: The bookies say...,zazzy, 12:38 PM, 05-12-11

Starting from the bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if Lauren is next out, as the soft cookie that crumbles. Haley is tougher and savvier than she is, having already upped her game after almost being eliminated much earlier.

While Scotty looks good and he is endearing to the younger audience as well as the country fans, I think James is the one who will continue to garner votes from a broader spectrum of viewers. James is much more versatile with a stronger stage and camera presence, so I would give him the nod to win it all.

In short, from the top, James, Scotty, Haley, and Lauren in that order.

The winner will be the contestant who's the majority subject of viewer sexual fantasies.

Singing does not come into play.

Interesting theory, but that does not explain every idol winner...

I think we're going to have a shocker in the Final 4 ... and that shocker will be Scotty going home! James has his own fanbase, he's probably picked up votes from Stefano's fans and he's more versatile than Scotty; Haley's got Casey's fans; Lauren and Scotty's splitting the country votes; and Lauren's fans will be voting like crazy since Lauren was in the Bottom 3 while Scotty's fans may well relax.

After that, Haley will probably go home as Lauren will pick up many of Scotty's country fans and James has been more consistent and been picking up a broader spectrum of fans.

This will put James and Lauren in the finale and the winner will be ... James, with Lauren the runner-up.

That's a good theory! Ryan did tell Scotty he had never been bottom 2...did that lull Scotty fans into complacency?

However, Scotty has a shot at singing an Elvis song this week and possibly Stand By Me, as well. And I don't think he's had the pimp spot yet!

You have made this week more interesting! Will Scotty get Daughtry'd?

As the best performer by far, I think James is a shoo-in to win. To me the only suspense is the finish order of the other three contestants. As for that finish order...

Lauren is out of gas and is likely to end in 4th place. Her overall singing style may divide the country vote to the extent where Scotty temporarily drops to the bottom two, but Scotty won't be in any real danger at that point.

Haley has shown big-time improvement over the past few weeks, and it'll get her to the final three. After Lauren's departure, Scotty will be swimming in country votes, and James has consistently pulled high vote totals, leaving Haley with a somewhat unlucky 3rd place finish.

The final showdown between James and Scotty will be a big one, but James is more versatile and a better on-stage performer, leaving Scotty as the runner-up and James the winner.

James-Scoty-Haley as the win-place-show would be the more diverse F3.

However, there are reports of Lauren being slated to perform in a benefit concert for tornado victims on her F3 homecoming trip.

OK, later they changed it "if" she makes the F3...but come on. It's AI. It was in the newspaper there.

Given the amount of time it takes to organize a home town parade and concert I think every year all of the top 4 (and maybe 5-6) people have something scheduled before the top 4 performance show.

I can't recall, but I think usually the people that don't make the top 3 for the televised home coming thing usually still do the concert and all that. They have everything set up and still have a lot of home town fans to perform for.

I hope Haley makes the final 3 so that I can go to another parade.

I think Scotty is your American Idol this season.

This is my favorite reality show!

http://american-idol-episodes-online.blogspot.com/

agree with your order z..I changed my PTTE yday to this order before I read this post!

LAST EDITED ON 05-11-11 AT 05:35 PM (EST)

Should Lauren or Scotty win, what happens when they hit eighteen? Do the show's binding clauses automatically expire (as their parents would have had to sign for them and adults negotiate for themselves), forcing the producers to give their star something approaching real terms and even the gawds-forbid chance of creative control? We may see depimping just because they'll be able to control James and Haley for the full duration.

Jordin was only OMG 17 when she won, so I assume whatever they used to keep her contractually they will do with Scotty or Lauren.

Should Lauren or Scotty win, what happens when they he hits eighteen?

Really? Really. Haven't you been paying attention?

Maybe I'm crazy, but I'm still seeing Scotty for the win.

He's from NC and we haven't had a finalist for awhile, and he usually gets the most states every week on Dial Idol, so I think his support may be a bit broader than just country (has the middle aged grandma vote, IMO).

James is IMO likely the other finalist, more of a West Coast and gets the Rocker Vote.

I think Hayley edges out Lauren this week as Hayley is getting Casey's voters, and Adam's been splitting the Adam Lambert fan vote by supporting her. Some will go with James, but I think a fair amount will go for Hayley so Adam's favorite stays in.

A lot depends on if they shore up Lauren enough after last week's devastation. I dunno if she's got the skills to take that and turn it into a fighting spirit or not.

If Lauren goes Scotty gets her votes, and then for the other finalist it really depends, IMO, how the Adam fan base splits, but I think James has more broad appeal than Hayley.

"and Adam's been splitting the Adam Lambert fan vote by supporting her. Some will go with James, but I think a fair amount will go for Hayley so Adam's favorite stays in."

Wow. Adam's fans are that sheeple-ish? And do they outnumber VFTW? Who did VFTW pick, anyway?

Well there are those with enough delusion that maybe Adam is bisexual...they'll do anything to get on his good side and see if they can change his mind.

VFTW is currently a toss-up between James and Hayley, so it will depend who campaigns the most for their votes during tonight's performance.

Before tonight's show I would have gone with Lauren going home, then Haley next week with the Finale being James and Scotty. The winner being James.

I am still sticking with that order but they clearly want Lauren in and Haley out. They barely gave criticism to anyone all season but yet have to Haley about 5 times. They, (judges) or the producers imo have wanted Lauren, Scotty and James final 3.

From a well-established site that accepts bets, but I won't provide the link.

Thursday, May 12

Scott McCreery
3/2

James Durbin
8/5

Haley Reinhart
7/2

Lauren Alaina
11/2

I looked at google trends for the F4 and Lauren had the least heat. However, internet searches does not necessarily equal voters.