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Original Message
"What makes Rupert so unbeatable as Final 2."

Posted by caychris on 11-12-03 at 07:45 PM
The popular wisdom says Rupe is unbeatable at F2. I challenge that wisdom. Considering that you would have to get 4 of the jury to vote for you lets look at each player and lets try to decide where there vote would land.

Jury# 1 Burton on the possible Rupert opponents

Sandra - possible to stick it to rupe for the earlier vote no real reason to resent sandra
Christa - same as sandra maybe a little more animosity because it was Christa he was trying to vote off when he got the axe the first time.
Jon - Ruperts best chance to get burtons vote.
Lil - If he honors his word and really believes he coming back was fair has to vote for her.
Tijuana - Sticking it to drake is just as good a motive
Darah - Same as T
Ryno - Similar to D and T

Conclusion - Burton is by no means in ruperts pocket as a vote.

Jury # 2 Sandra on the possible Rupert opponents.

It really all depends on where in the order Sandra gets booted. At final 3 Rupe looses her vote unless he is against an outcast.
Jon may even get her nod as she feels betrayed.
DOnt think her loyalty runs that deep if Rupert ousts her I think she lets him have it.

Conclusion - not by any means a guarentee to vote for Rupe the farther she goes the worse it is.

Jury # 3 Christa

Very similar to Sandra but probably more loyal.

Conclusion 1 of Ruperts fairly certain votes also a good candidate to go against in F2 to avoid the vindictive vote due to earlier indications she isnt well liked.

Jury # 4 Jon

Pretty sure Jon votes anyone but Rupert.

Jury #5 Lil

Here is a vote that is really up in the air let her stay too long and you risk an andrew like retaliation. Rupert needs to work at how he can keep this vote

Jury #6 Tijuana

The only ones Rupert can take to the F2 to sew up the vote would be Lil or Jon and thats dependent on how far T goes in the game.

Jury #7 Darah

She is the big mystery.

Jury #8 Ryno
Pretty much a vote for rupert unless he is just booted this week in tribal fasion and a morgan other than lil opposes Rupe.


So as it stands Rupert is by no means a lock with the remaining players in fact his dominance will probably work against him.
Also he will have to break between Sandra and Christa sometime to make the F2 and that can go against him as well.

Im not so sure that Rupe is such a sure thing if he makes is to F2. There are alot of dynamics left to explore and how and when the people get booted will make all the difference.




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Messages in this discussion
"RE: What makes Rupert so unbeatable as Final 2."
Posted by Fast Eddie on 11-13-03 at 12:36 PM
Most people hope he'll get to the final 2. Then we can test the theories.

However, common consensus is that he won't, so we'll probably never know.


"RE: What makes Rupert so unbeatable as Final 2."
Posted by nazzWord on 11-16-03 at 11:54 PM
Agrees with Fast Eddie. Would love to see him in the final 2. But with everibody else, I mean EVERYBODY saw him as a threat. He wouldn't last long unless he keeps on winning immunity.(please let he wins several more IC)If he does reach the final 2.. I think he'd win it..

"RE: What makes Rupert so unbeatable as Final 2."
Posted by TeamJoisey on 11-17-03 at 01:57 PM
Rupert tells the jury this:

I have played this game as well as anyone ever has, and I did it without lying to anyone about my motives or my alliances. No one here can say they were duped by me, or stabbed in the back by me. Any grievances we had, we had in the open.

I spent 39 days here on the island, and made sure that everyone in our tribe was fed each day, regardless of alliances. I did not head up any alliance, and I didn't lead any conspiracy to put any of you out of the game.

I have always been committed to the tribe, first Drake, then Balboa. While I got to know some of the Morgans during my visit, I never wavered in my tribal loyalty. It was with my help the Drake tribe won the first three immunity challenges, and I would have liked Drake to win the next immunity challenge as well. When the tribes merged I embraced new friends, and treated them as equal members in the new Balboa tribe. When the game changed, and Burton and Lill returned to the game, I welcomed them back, despite the fact that there torch had once been snuffed.

So now it comes down to the final 2. You are there, and I am here. Why is that? Because I won some immunity challenges when I needed to.

I know that many of you saw me as a threat to win this game, and that each of you perceived me as a target at one time or another. I know there were many discussions about voting me out. I did not let that affect my friendships out here. I know you were all here to play the game, and to win the million dollars. Regardless of who wins, I will cherish the friendships we have made.

But now you have to give one of us the million dollars. I can only say that I am a man of little wealth, yet a man with few desires. I do not need or want the money to buy myself a new sports car, or a mansion.

I intend to use a substantial portion of the money to help troubled teens in the inner city, where the money can do the most good. I have committed my life to helping others, and hope that you can find a way to help me in that cause.



These reality show contestants need a reality check!


"RE: What makes Rupert so unbeatable as Final 2."
Posted by I_AM_HE on 11-17-03 at 02:09 PM
that would do it, but they never come up with good things to say to the jury

as far as votes, i think he has christa's no matter what

sandra *probably* would give him her vote in the end. i could see scenarios where she *might* vote for Burton, Lill, or Jon, or more probably Christa

i think Lill would give him her vote over anyone but Burton

Burton probably likewise. might give a vote to Jon

Jon could go any way, but i doubt he'd vote for T/D/C over Rupert. probably not Sandra either, but might if she did some major game playing. Burton or (less likely) Lill he *might* vote for, but i think he still would have reservations voting for an outcast.

Ryan would vote for Rupert over anyone except T or D, and maybe even then.

which leaves T and D. they'd vote for each other over anyone else, but if neither is facing Rupert in the finals? they don't care for Christa or (probably) Jon, i seriously doubt they vote for Lill or Burton. they might pick Sandra over him

so yeah, i think Rupert, presenting any semblance of the case TeamJoisey outlines above, has a VERY good shot at winning. there could always be a perfect storm in the jurors' sentiments, but it would be just that


"RE: What makes Rupert so unbeatable as Final 2."
Posted by Fast Eddie on 11-17-03 at 02:32 PM
I think that's the best closing speech I've ever heard, er, read. I don't know what these people do, but it would be a great idea IMO to have a speech ready before even starting out. If some future contestant has any brains at all s/he'll steal yours (with appropriate modifications).

"RE: What makes Rupert so unbeatable as Final 2."
Posted by Spanky68 on 11-18-03 at 03:46 PM
FastEddie,

I think this is at least the 2nd time I've said "I agree with you!".

Team Joisey has once again done a superb job of capsulizing a thought. (I thought TJ's Episode 1 summary was the funniest I've ever read!)

Long live TJ!