First and (season) ten: do it again!

Since this seems to be the one thing I can even remotely predict each season, it's time to see if I can break this streak. (I was waiting to start the thread until after the veto ceremony, so I'd know for sure who was up and who'd been offended by it. Since we don't know for sure who's going to Sequesterville, I'm covering everyone.) The way I see it, the options are:

HoH: Michelle

Nominees: If she's still around, then either the house turned on Jerry or Dan broke a tie in that direction. This brings up the question of whether she's going to forgive and forget, or just do what every other hamster does and seek revenge. I say revenge: Dan & Memphis go up.
If Veto Is Used: Keesha.
Evictee, Veto: The surviving original nominee.
Evictee, No Veto: The voting pool here is Renny, Keesha & Ollie. Two of those three are going to turn Dan into kindling, and the third might go along with it just for appearances.

HoH: Jerry

Nominees: Again, if he's here, then the house went for Michelle or Dan broke a tie in Jerry's favor. Will Jerry respect that and take it as amends? Are you kidding? Dan goes up, and probably has Memphis for company -- it's getting to the point where Jerry will be worried about competitions.
If Veto Is Used: Renny. (Should be Keesha, but Jerry likes his eye candy too much for his own good.)
Evictee, Veto: The remaining original nominee. Renny still isn't seen as enough of a threat (even a social one) to go out against Dan or Memphis.
Evictee, No Veto: Dan. See above.

HoH: Memphis

Nominees: Now: does he believe Dan about that feint? Does he think Dan is a weak player whom he can get rid of at any time? If he's still offended, Dan's going up: if he isn't... I think that given the time pressure of the live hour, Memphis will decide this is a really bad time to form instant alliances: he'll nominate Ollie and whoever survived the initial elimination.
If Veto Is Used: Now Memphis is in trouble. He doesn't want to nominate Renny just yet. If he puts Dan up, Dan's going out. (If Memphis backdoors here, I'll be semi-demi-impressed). It's probably Keesha, but in this situation, Keesha's no sure thing to stay in the house.
Evictee, Veto: Voting pool is Renny, Dan, and either Ollie or the prior nominee. If Ollie's still up, he should go out: Renny and Dan control the vote. If he's down, then it could be the previous block sitting -- but it wouldn't surprise me to see Keesha go.
Evictee, No Veto: Ollie.

HoH: Keesha

Nominees: Whose side is she on? Time to choose... She just might throw this HoH if she thinks about the consequences: she's not very likely to go up in most scenarios (with April out, she's close to bulletproof for initial target fire this week), and she doesn't want the payback from holding power right now. If Keesha gets the key, it might be because she couldn't get out of it past enough. I think she'll read the mood of the house, then play it safe by putting up Dan and whoever remains of Michelle & Jerry.
If Veto Is Used: Memphis. ('I have no choice to but to put up a strong competitor.')
Evictee, Veto: Dan if he didn't use it: Memphis if he did.
Evictee, No Veto: Voting pool here is Memphis, Renny & Ollie. Dan could ride out a 2-1 here, but a lot depends on Memphis' mood that day. There's no guaranteed safety here.

HoH: Ollie

Nominees: Do you even have to ask? Dan and Memphis!
If Veto Is Used: Ollie will spend twenty minutes beating his head against the wall (completely screwing up the timing for the live hour), then put up Keesha.
Evictee, Veto: We'd be looking at the vetoed party, Renny, and the surviving original nominee. With Memphis still up, that should send Keesha home. If Dan is up, we're looking at a coin flip.
Evictee, No Veto: Dan.

HoH: Renny

Nominees: This is where Renny puts her cards on the table. Is she feeling loyal to the Rennygade alliance? Has she worked out another deal? Is she feeling sane? I think this is where she might slam down the joker and decide to twist things up, because she can't count on taking the competitions at the end against this pool. (Renny's dearest hope for F2, physically, mentally, and socially, is Jerry. Right now, Dan is a close second.) Ollie & Memphis go up. And they're not happy about it.
If Veto Is Used: The surviving original nominee, strictly as a pawn.
Evictee, Veto: Whoever was left of the first nominations. I think Renny would prefer Memphis out here, but she'll happily settle for Ollie.
Evictee, No Veto: Memphis. (Voters are Dan, Keesha, and Michelle/Jerry -- Memphis is gone 2-1, and possibly 3-0.)

Dan

Is screwed.

• RE: Rush To Judgment III: HoH nomination speculation and possibilities for BB8 speed dating hour,kingfish, 11:45 AM, 08-26-08
• RE: Rush To Judgment III: HoH nomination speculation and possibilities for BB8 speed dating hour,Estee, 07:58 PM, 08-28-08
  • RE: Rush To Judgment III: HoH nomination speculation and possibilities for BB8 speed dating hour,kingfish, 08:28 PM, 08-28-08

LAST EDITED ON 08-26-08 AT 01:50 PM (EST)

I'll play.

Michelle: Dan and Keesha up, with Memphis in reserve. (Jerry gone)

Evictee w/veto used on Dan - Memphis
voting pool - Ollie, Renny, Dan.

Evictee w/veto used on Keesha - Memphis
voting pool - Ollie, Renny, Keesha.

Evictee w/no veto used - Dan.
voting pool - Ollie, Renny, Memphis.

Jerry: Dan and Memphis up, with Keesha in reserve. (Michelle gone)

Evictee w/veto used on Dan - Memphis
voting pool - Ollie, Renny, Dan.

Evictee w/veto used on Memphis - Dan
voting pool - Ollie, Renny, Memphis.

Evictee w/no veto used - Memphis.
voting pool - Ollie, Renny, Keesha.

Memphis w/Michelle or Jerry gone (sub one for the other - J/M):Ollie and J/M, with Renny in reserve.

Evictee w/veto used on Ollie - J/M
voting pool - Ollie, Dan, Keesha.

Evictee w/veto used on J/M - Ollie
voting pool - Keesha, Dan, J/M.

Evictee w/no veto used - Ollie
voting pool - Dan, Renny, Keesha.

Keesha w/Michelle or Jerry gone (sub one for the other - J/M):Ollie and J/M, with Renny in reserve.

Evictee w/veto used on Ollie - J/M
voting pool - Ollie, Dan, Memphis.

Evictee w/veto used on J/M - Ollie
voting pool - Memphis, Dan, J/M.

Evictee w/no veto used - Ollie
voting pool - Dan, Renny, J/M.

Ollie: w/Michelle or Jerry gone (sub one for the other - J/M): Dan and Keesha up, with Memphis in reserve.

Evictee w/veto used on Dan - Memphis
voting pool - J/M, Renny, Dan.

Evictee w/veto used on Keesha - Dan
voting pool - J/M, Renny, Keesha.

Evictee w/no veto used - Dan.
voting pool - J/M, Renny, Memphis.

Renny w/Michelle or Jerry gone (sub one for the other - J/M):Ollie and J/M, with Memphis in reserve.

Evictee w/veto used on Ollie - J/M
voting pool - Keesha, Dan, Ollie.

Evictee w/veto used on J/M - Ollie
voting pool - Keesha, Dan, J/M.

Evictee w/no veto used - Ollie
voting pool - Dan, Keesha, Memphis.

Jerry and Michele might not vote the same, so they might not be interchangeable, but to keep the list manageable I pretend that they would. And, it's logical to assume that they might.

Dan, Keesha and Memphis are at a disadvantage, especially Dan, because Dan isn't eligible for HOH. Memphis would probably vote for Dan if he has to vote on a teammate. But Memphis has something to worry about too, because if push comes to shove, Renny will vote him out over her other teammates. As would Dan.

I see Renny and Keesha as being safe this week because either will likely be up against a bigger target, Dan or Memphis. Except for the double part of the double elimination, which, given the variables in the first elimination, is pretty much a toss up. Who wins HOH for the second half of the double elim? Keesha or Renny? or whoever's left from Ollie and J/M?

It'll be a quick format HOH contest, a Q/A , maybe favoring Michelle (if she's around, and Keesha). I don't see Ollie having much of a chance, at least less so than Memphis.

I'm going to make a guess that J/M go in the first half of the double elimination, with Keesha winning the second HOH and Ollie going in the second half. Then Renny, then Memphis, then Dan winning it all.

I like your "Renny" scenario and I wouldn't mind seeing it come to pass. But realistically I think she isn't up to understanding strategy. She'll follow the leaders (against J/M or Ollie, as she has reluctantly done up to now), or react emotionally against Memphis.

Well, so much for my streak of two. I am so very wrong...

LAST EDITED ON 08-28-08 AT 08:33 PM (EST)

It's just Monopoly.

Eta: hey just checked, I nailed it. Pure luck on the Keesha getting the second HOH part.