Good to see the ideas thrown out. If we brainstorm enough we will hit it. Thinking of ways the idol could be involved is a good start.

Sabrina didn't ask the other women whether she could give it to Colton, did she? She just did it. She didn't seem to show them the HII or tell them the rules. I think she has been looking for the other idol a lot (per Nina or Kourtney).

Would the men really expect absolute disclosure to the whole group?
Hard to say. The men seem to think a lot about which one of them the women will like more. Matt and Jonas both mentioned it in Insider. They seem to assume the women might be interested in handing some guy the game. (This is not S22, and I don't think so.)

I noticed Alicia confirming that she is still down on Monica and Christina.

Some Of Us Did Good (Ep 3 Insider)

Alicia boasts about her and Kat's performance in the immunity challenge.

"We won the challenge today, and I'm probably the only one that's like (looks unsure). Monica, Monica. You did - what did you do?"

"You couldn't even get through it. I got 2 bags back, and Kim and Chelsea back. Monica and Christina, you better be praying to sweet baby Jesus that we aren't going to Tribal Council today, because one of you would have gone home."

"When I was with Kat, we rocked it out. She was leading me. I also unhooked the puzzle pieces."

"It was awesome being able to get the puzzles out of the bucket. I mean, Kat really showed herself today. She was the one who was leading me, for once. I was really proud of her today. It also helped her boost up her self-esteem to know that she can do this."

"I'm proud of me and Kat, and I can't say much about Christina and Monica."
______

So it seems that Alicia is still on course to boot one of those two. Kat would be with her. Sabrina, Chelsea, Kim are the ones who might see the wisdom of letting Cat go strictly in terms of challenges.

However, in terms of loyalties, if there is a swap or a merge, Christina and Monica have been chatting up Jonas we noticed, and they are two who could seek to hook up with the misfits. So keeping Kat around is probably better if they expect a shake-up.

As Flo-po and VG and Blind Freddy and others have worked out, Monica is the one to go if they don't swap this time. CBS, please give us challenge promos!

OFG noted...CBS, please give us challenge promos!

Well, with the new promo, I think that the unforgiveable betrayal that is forcing the Manono's to make a drastic move boils down to the men winning the food reward, and Leif, perhaps, smuggling some of it to the girls. We hear Jonas say, "This is a huge move." I think they are targeting Leif. Also, in the interview with webby, Matt noted that everyone in the Manono tribe was on board with not sharing anything at all with the girls except for Leif...he said, The only person that I think wasn't there was Leif. I mean, he was pretty sensitive to what they were going through, and I think that's pretty cool, but for the most part, I think the guys were like, "That's your opponent. Let's not help them."

So, it appears as if the guys may have won the reward, Leif has smuggled some of it to the girls, and now they are making a move of some kind....are they going to kick him out? I noted in the vidcap thread that Leif is not tied to anyone....I think Troy/Bill or Jonas are together, Jay and Michael are tied together, and Gregzan and Colton are tied. But, Leif is alone....Could he be a caller, and Jonas is sitting out? I am eager to find out what the big move that's never happened before is...

Maybe the guys kick him out and the girls are allowed to adopt him via a special TC.

I think Troy and Jonas targeting Leaf is not a huge move. I suspect they may be plotting something much bigger. Wouldn't it be great if the tribe made Leaf the target only to vote out Colton. That would be awesome. Of coarse that plan would never take place if the girls are the next to go to TC fallowed by the switch.

LAST EDITED ON 03-03-12 AT 10:55 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-03-12 AT 10:17 AM (EST)

Jason: I like where you are going with this. I agree, I think there is more here than meets the eye. I love that you suggest Troyzan and Jonas may think of a way to target someone out of the blue - Lief, for sharing with the girls - exploit Gregzan for all it's worth, then turn around and boot Colton. We see how Colton seems to be swallowing it, hook, line, and sinker....

"If someone can't see that I'm in control, they must be Helen Keller..."

So, we don't see Troy/Jonas hatch the plan, but we do see this...

When Jonas notes, "This is a huge move!"

Then, Colton goes for it, and shares it with Jay...

Who comments that, "That's a hasty move"...

Then, they must share it with Gregzan, who runs away with it, and calls a conference with them all there...target: Lief. I wonder if Leif could be in on it?

Regardless, Troy and Jonas set the wheel in motion to blindside Colton, get rid of him and his idol...

I love it, and it could be quite plausible! Well done, Jason!
ETA: As we know, the men won't have to go to fruition with it this week, because they win the IC. Next week is the tribal shuffle...I do smell the beginning of the end with Colton....he is showing WAY too much arrogance, and that is ALWAYS a recipe for disaster. Just ask Matt!

ETAA: The more I think about this, the more I like it. Troy and Jonas could definitely be the origin of the deception. They could carry around that cloth bag, that came with the reward, perhaps, and say they found it at the girls tribe with crumbs in it....and then they blame it all on Leif, when in actuality, it was a plant. That's why the girls react with, "the guys have lost their marbles", because they know that no one gave them any food. Anyway, Jonas and Troy take the planted evidence to Colton, and the story unfolds....Colton goes to Jay and explains it, then it goes on from there. All the while, it's a ploy to get Colton to believe that they are all on board with a Leif boot, while in actuality he will be booted along with his HII! Love it! Kind of bummed that the guys don't lose the IC....I like Monica alot more than Colton...

As posted by Blind Freddy: AN UNFORGIVABLE BETRAYAL FORCES ONE TRIBE TO MAKE A DRASTIC MOVE THAT WILL GO DOWN IN SURVIVOR HISTORY, ON "SURVIVOR: ONE WORLD,” WEDNESDAY, MARCH 7

CHEAT TWEET: In 24 seasons we’ve never seen this! 1 tribe makes a move that’ll go down in #Survivor history Wed, March 7 @ 8pmET/PT http://bit.ly/y8BVEw

"Bum-Puzzled" — An unforgiveable betrayal forces one tribe to make a drastic move that has never been done before in Survivor history, and an electrifying Tribal Council leaves several castaways speechless

And, Jiffy's tout tease: A first at TC, a game changer.....one of the most unexpected things that I've ever seen happen!

I think we are well on our way to figuring out the unforgivable betrayal that forces one tribe to make a drastic move that will go down in Survivor history.

Now it's time to work on:

1. An electrifying TC that leaves several castaways speechless.
2. A first at TC, a game changer, one of the most unexpected things that I've ever seen happen.

Considering #2, could JIffy mean that "a first at TC", and THEN, the game changer, one of the most unexpected things that he's ever seen happen...? Could he possibly be referring to both tribes here?

Christina seems to be the one that is most loathed, as per Alicia. Will Christina do something that throws poor Monica under the bus?

Well, that's some mighty big hype, it surely is.

We've seem people thrown under the bus many many times, if that were it then it would have to be a new and unusual way in which it is done. We can maybe stew up some ideas about that, but for the moment I have none.

We've seen a few times people imploding their own games, there only seems to be one way to do that and that is to just do it. And it should be someone with a reasonably good game to implode.

Alliance uncertainty, disintigration? With five in and two on the outs the five can each vote however they want picking from the designated two, they are assured of having at least three votes on one of the two. This would allow the two on the outs to join forces, try to target one member of the alliance to throw under the bus, work it as hard as they can at TC. Alicia and Kat would both be vulnerable to that sort of attack, perhaps incapable of defending themsevles, but in this it is always the stronger liklihood that the alliance holds together.

one of the most unexpected things that I've ever seen happen

Unexpected to Jeff? Salani gang up and decide to vote out Tarzan? Salani work out a prisoner exchange, give Manono Christina in return for Leif? Mystery Salani HII ploy?

Based on the excellent post IC timeline analysis in the ep. 4 vidcap thread, I offer the following speculation.

An unforgiveable betrayal occurs at the men's camp (eg. giving some of the men's food to the women without getting consensus). The men are all livid (like what happened with Clarence helping himself and Diane to the can of beans in Africa) and since they can't vote the traitor out just yet they decide that they would like to exile the traitor to the women's tribe. Since they need Jeff's approval for this, the men tell the women about their plan and ask for their permission to attend the upcoming TC (see the vidcap from the end of show promo where Tarzan is addressing the women as a group talking about "we have a betrayal"). The women agree and the men attend the TC and make their pitch to Jeff at the start of the TC. Based on what we know either the men's request is denied or the request is accepted and the traitor survives the vote.

Kind of far-fetched but it would be a drastic move and a Survivor first and the men showing up at the Tribal Council for the women would definitely be unexpected.

That's interesting. But it really isn't up to the women to allow the men to attend TC. And much of this betrayal stuff would probably occur between RC and IC. Tarzan could be talking to the women, they may as well tell him the truth of it, and maybe gives them the idea the men would throw the IC if they confirm the betrayal.

Anyway, it isn't up to the women if the men attend TC, it's up to production. They would be in violation of their contracts if they left the designated boundaries of the camp except as directed (to attend a challenge, attend TC, go on a reward) or without having first obtained permission.

They could ask Jeff at IC, I suppose.

How do you know that is in their contract? I am pretty sure they are allowed to wander about searching for food and the Idol ect.

If it isn't in the contract it is specified in the instructions they receive, which they have to follow per their contracts.

Anyway, the camp areas have generous boundaries they have to remain within. Certainly they try to give them as much space as possible for foraging and so on, and the boundaries extend over water to allow them to go fishing and so on. If they would want to go on walkabout outside the boundaries they would have to receive permission, the film crew would gear up to accompany them on walkabout, and if there are places which would be dangerous (say a swamp) those places would still be forbidden.

This is logistically what production has to do in order to film this show, keep the production camp forbidden to the players, keep unwanted strangers away and so on.

jason, some of us have been to the filming sites. I've even to one. Wezzie has Photos of the boundary signs. Dan Bollinger has located many a TC and camps. Castaways talk afterwards. Contracts have been posted. Lots of knowledge here about those things.

The players are transported to TC. No one just goes without authorization, and in fact it would take another van for tribes this large.

"I think we are well on our way to figuring out the unforgivable betrayal that forces one tribe to make a drastic move that will go down in Survivor history."

I bet that all this is hoopla about a drastic move is simply the men deciding to relocate their camp somewhere else on the island to get away from the women. I can't recall a tribe ever deciding to relocate their camp before. Admittedly building a new shelter is a pain in the neck but the main story regarding camp life is the women being dependent on the men and the men getting irritated by it. The unforgiveable betrayal is the final straw and the men decide to put an end to the One World twist.

I don't see what purpose that would serve other than making a further walk between the two shelters, the players camp has established boundaries they have to remain within. Still, hype usually turns out to be just hype, so I won't exclude that entirely.

In the initial season the two tribe camps abutted one another and members of the two tribes occasionally ran into one another, were able to share information. Afterwards that was corrected so that couldn't happen, though in Thailand the two tribes shared a camp during the faux merge, and in whatever season it was everyone was in the same camp for the first night before tribes were picked.

Possibly the men and women draw a line in this season's One World players camp, Salani stays on this side, Manono stays on this side, no one crosses the line ever more, they recreate traditional Survivor standards against the One World objective, take, players take precedence over production. O the humanity.

But it changes the game forever, the players are taking control over production.

Here's the stab at the clues I posted at MESS.
____

I love all the brainstorming. At the same time, it might be time to see what really fits the clues. What can we propose that really works within the teaser?

We have Jeff's tout and press release. IME, the big thing of the episode is going to be stemming from one event, not multiples, and the tout and the treaser are about the same thing.

A first at TC, a game changer, and one of the most unexpected things that I've ever seen happen.

OK, this is not a list of three things. Translation: There is a first at TC, which is a game changer, and this is one of the most unexpected things that I've ever seen happen. This is Jeff being caught completely unprepared, so it is not a production twist. While there could be a production twist, it would be planned, and an addition to this. Jeff mentions no twists. He says nothing about catching the players off guard. It is the players who surprise Jeff.

Combine this with:

CBS Press release for E4
------------------------
03.01.2012

AN UNFORGIVABLE BETRAYAL FORCES ONE TRIBE TO MAKE A DRASTIC MOVE THAT WILL GO DOWN IN SURVIVOR HISTORY, ON "SURVIVOR: ONE WORLD,” WEDNESDAY, MARCH 7

CHEAT TWEET: In 24 seasons we’ve never seen this! 1 tribe makes a move that’ll go down in #Survivor history Wed, March 7 @ 8pmET/PT http://bit.ly/y8BVEw

"Bum-Puzzled" — An unforgiveable betrayal forces one tribe to make a drastic move that has never been done before in Survivor history, and an electrifying Tribal Council leaves several castaways speechless, on SURVIVOR: ONE WORLD, Wednesday, March 7 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

Ok, so what things overlap here?

Thing #1: Unforgivable betrayal
Thing #2: One tribe makes a drastic move,
Thigs #3: It is the MOVE that goes down in Survivor History.
Different wordings we are given about the move:
a) Never seen in a prior season.
b) Will go down in Survivor History
c) move has never been done before
d) drastic
e) move is result (FORCED) by the unforgivable betrayal.
f) move is made by one tribe in particular.

Now incorporate Jeff's tout:
First at TC changes the game and Jeff never saw it coming.
I equate "makes Survivor history" with a "first" -- so it seems likely the drastic move is made AT TC.
Teaser confirms that electrifying Tribal Council leaves several castaways speechless.

This indicates that either some of the castaways (several) were not expecting the move or the fallout from the move, any more than Jeff was.

Now we do have some dialogue in camp about a move, from Jonas IIRC (but I could misremember). We have dialogue from the men about a betrayal (Greg).

The problem here is that the men have a betrayal and are planning a move. We have nothing from the women really. Yet the one missing in the next episode is Monica. That is the problem I have. How does it move from all this angst and betrayal and plotting on Manono and result in Monica going.

We really have nothing to show either tribe losing the IC. Furthermore, in spite of all the spec about Leif sharing reward food, from what I see, the women are doing very well with the slingshot. We see them busting out the squares, and talking about how they can beat the men. So we should maybe be open to them winning.

We also don't see Leif with a partner in the IC. There are only 7 women though, so there can't be 4 pairs. Either a woman and two men are sitting out or a woman and Leif have another task? But because we don't see Leif, and we think he got the male disapproval, one has to wonder.

So what could it be that stays within the parameters of the teasers? (If the teasers are wrong, so be it, it's what they gave us.)

Is there any way that the women could make a drastic move at TC in response to an unforgivable betrayal?

Any way the men are going to TC, given they are all accounted for in the water basketball?

Could it be that the winner of the Immunity Idol decides to give it to the other tribe, so they can vote someone out?

"Why not intentionally lose, then?"

Maybe that's what provokes it. Perhaps someone is trying to intentionally lose, and then when the men win, they're like, "ok, you want to lose so bad? we'll go to Tribal and kick YOU out!"

Or maybe it's after the challenge. Men win, go back to camp, all happy... some guy is like "I'm betraying stuff, etc." so the rest of the group is like "hey women, want the idol? because we're going to Tribal and kick this guy out."

(or replace men with women in any of the above)

Yeah, it sounds lame even writing this out, but I guess it COULD happen...? (I'm leaning more towards someone giving away the food/tarp/canoe/fire/secrets/HII)

Is there any way that the women could make a drastic move at TC in response to an unforgivable betrayal?

Why would they? The betrayer would be low man on the totem pole, if in your tribe just boot him, if in the other tribe it becomes a matter of protecting him if you can. How would they do that? Other than intentionally losing the IC to send themselves to TC, which would be a different reason for doing something that's been done before, I can't think of anything.

Any way the men are going to TC, given they are all accounted for in the water basketball?

Doubt it. Unless part of a reward for winning IC is getting to attend TC as observers, which would be planned by production. So unlikely.

Possibilities.

The two tribes decide to conduct their own tribal switch without Jeff, pick'em or blind draw, sending a mixed batch to TC. Doubtful, production could just over-rule it, but this is made possible courtesy of the One World twist. Which is true of the "betrayal" itself.

Physical altercation resulting in expulsion. Rather not see that, it has always been theoretically possible, it would put Jeff in the position of deciding which person was at fault, in effect Jeff decides who it booted. Unexpected, yes. Electrifying? That would be weird hype. Not really a game-changer except that it hasn't happened before now, it would be different.

Alliance can't decide between two potential booties and insists on a challenge between them. Production is unprepared for this, just says no that isn't going to happen, we never see any of it.

Tribe decides to not vote but sit around the TC fire for the next four weeks until the game is over. Okay, now I'm being silly.

Not sure if this helps at all but...

In the web promo at about 0:20 it is Jay that says: "I'm completely Bum Buzzled right now" which seems to have been changed to the "Bum-Puzzled" title.

Also, the Press Release photos name the Immunity Challenge as "Puzzle Relay" so maybe each pair has to solve part of the puzzle then run back and tag the next pair and due to the odd numbers the last players go by themselves but have the hardest part of the puzzle to do? I don't think the odd person is a "caller". Maybe it is Leif vs Monica at the end?

That's an interesting idea, Sheldor.

I am still stuck with the fact that the men are mad at a MAN, yet a woman goes. If Leif helps Monica, for example, and women win, a man goes. But all 8 men are in the water basketball. That is the key.

Seven of the men get close-up shots in future challenges, all but Troyzan.
Six of the women get close-up shots in the future, all but Chelsea and Monica.

NO ONE goes home this ep other than one of those three, period.

We see eight guys in one shot in the water basketball, two in the foreground and six in the background. That's why we know it's a woman going.

Looks like Troyzan's yellow trunks on that second man from the left. We KNOW that Jay is there on Salani.

So the betrayal might be an attempt to help the women win, but they don't, UNLESS Jeff were to strip the women of their victory after the fact, for some action that was caught belatedly, and then game the II to the men.