OK.......we all have our theories........but it all comes down to THIS.........

Unless these guys are FREAKIN MORONS.....there WILL be a 5 to 5 TIE. Each tribe knows that THIS IC makes or breaks them to the final 5. THAT IS ALL THERE IS TO IT. Defecting at this point is team/personal SUICIDE.....even if there is extreme HATRED towards one of your team mates(keith), eliminating your enemy (jerri) only means that you have signed your own death certificate. Down the road (sooner than later), the defector isnt going to get special treatment in the end from the appreciative team...for they will dispose of him/her the first chance they get.

Mark my words......this whole game hinges on the next bootee. The tribe of the next bootee, however it is played out, is OVER. They know it, we know it, MB knows it.

So unless there is a DOOFUS MORON on one of these tribes willing to defect...we can expect this result....which would make this weeks episode VERY VERY interesting.....and the following 4 weeks somewhat of a bore.

But then again......with someone like Jerri in the mix.....she might feel indestructable enough to defect and think she is so loveable that..................NAHHHHHH.

thats my story and Im stickin to it.

• RE: Debb's Friends continued.....,ACPS65, 02:05 PM, 03-04-01
• Agree 100%,IslandFever, 07:35 PM, 03-04-01
• RE: Debb's Friends continued.....,jtmorgan61, 11:15 PM, 03-04-01
• Voting: Gretchen's comments,AyatollahKhomeini, 08:26 PM, 03-05-01
  • RE: Voting: Gretchen's comments,Kokoro, 09:13 PM, 03-05-01
    • Greg and Jenna,AyatollahKhomeini, 12:16 PM, 03-07-01
• RE: Debb's Friends continued.....,Minstrel, 10:22 PM, 03-06-01
  • RE: Debb's Friends continued.....,Kokoro, 11:26 PM, 03-06-01
• RE: Debb's Friends continued.....,wordman68, 11:31 AM, 03-08-01
• RE: Debb's Friends continued.....,sinistral, 01:35 PM, 03-08-01

I wonder if that could happen. Seriously, does anyone think that they could possibly be that stupid? I sure hope Rodger remembers what team he was on Pre-Merger.

Final Three: Alicia Calaway, Jeff Varner, Elisabeth Filarski.

Nothing else makes any sense. Since this is such a pivotal vote, I think they should have a much better tie breaker than in the past. To my chagrin, I think a Kucha member is going. At this point I would place the final 3 as, Keith, Tina, and Jerri. Colby and Amber are too likable. Your thoughts were mine exactly. It would be individual suicide to turn against a team member now.

I dunno... Three things:
1. MB's comment that "people made the same mistakes as last season" makes me suspicious of the obvious (to us viewers) conclusion that this vote will be 5-5. Keith and Jerri just might hate the other enough to screw each other over. Keith might figure, hey, I'm probably not likeable enough to win the final vote, and there isn't a huge cash difference between 3rd and 6th, and I own a chain of restaurants so I don't need the money, and it's really worth a couple grand to me to have a week and a half in the Outback without Jerri... etc.
2. If 5-5, why does Kucha lose? Keith loses in a tiebreaker if all votes are known. If no one knows, people who might have gotten votes (Keith, Jerri) are more obvious to Kucha since they can't stop fighting and they must have noticed Colby's little water tantrum.
3. The one thing that everyone's saying that I just don't get is that 5 members of one tribe will go in order. I think we're assuming too much based on last season here, where everyone in the last four was playing, and no one else really was. Example: imagine if it gets down to 5 Kucha, 2 Ogakor, and Jeff and Alicia look around and realize they're all alone in Kucha and won't make the final three without help. Mike's been gone, and they've been making new buddies, for 9 days already. They might just jump ship.

This post with regard to voting is from erstwhile on ss.com:

"Many thanks to S2Fan for discovering the following commentary from Gretchen Cordy in which she confirms that prior votes carry over past the merger. I have heard the WAV file myself and there is no doubt in my mind that it is authentic.

"Here is a transcript of the clip:

-----

"Interviewer: Who would you be looking for because now it's each for themselves, right?

"Gretchen: It should be every man for himself, but it seems like they're gonna still work in teams, which would be really good, and I would target Colby in a big fat way, but he hasn't had any prior votes, and if they know who's had the prior votes, then you'd want to go for someone like Jerri, if I was on the Kucha tribe.

"Interviewer: On the first one, you said that you actually got some time to talk to the other tribe here and there and knew more information on who had had votes, but on this one you found out from Tina and Mitchell, Mark Burnett said nobody could talk to anybody else.

"Gretchen: No one could talk. Right.

------

"It's unclear whether Burnett meant that the two tribes couldn't talk to each other BEFORE the merge and so therefore had little info to go on, or whether he meant that they were forbidden from discussing the prior vote tallies AFTER the merge. I suspect it's the former, and that the pre-merger tribe-interaction rules have changed specifically to protect tie-breaker information in the new Survivor II system. In any case, there's no question that Gretchen has discussed the prior votes situation with Tina and Mitchell and that she believes that prior votes do carry past the merge."

Well, applying this to what we know would indicate that mustangsally's original post is right: Gretchen, at least, agrees that only a "freakin' moron" would vote against his or her team, and the teams DO NOT appear to know who has had votes cast against them.

Interesting fact:

And the freakin' morons from last season are.....

Greg (double freakin' moron)
Jenna (same)
Gervase
Colleen

"Oh my God! Meatball subs! I love those! Oh my God!" - "That skinny chick"'s most memorable line

This theory pegged them perfectly: double freakin' morons! As I have expressed before, Greg is living proof of the fact that an Ivy League education doesn't mean you're smart.

A 5-5 tie is still a Kucha advantage without prior votes knowledge. I don't believe one tribe will find out about the other's prior votes without having to reveal their own (they could lie of course). Switching to Ogakor would set up a 4-3 or 5-2 Kucha jury for and Ogakor in the final, but that isn't necessarily doom and 2nd place. Switching allows time to engratiate yourself in the Kuchas. I think and Ogakor can win the whole thing this way. If they stand pat and get picked off as in S1, no Ogie will be in the final two.

Ogakor hopes to take out Kucha. They likely need to hit Jeff this time because of previous votes (that they don't know Jeff has though). But I see Kucha smarter and better organized. If I were in Kucha, I'd tell the tribe that "we" win the tribal council by lying that Nick has votes (for example). Ogie hits Nick with five (assume) and Kucha selects a large threat in Ogie. (Keith, Colby, or Jerri). It almost doesn't matter. Colby is the worse choice of course, but they don't know that. Even if they were told Colby has 3 votes, at best it is a tie.

Then Jerri may change her vote knowing a tie, or not where upon a mini challenge is held. But I would assess who Ogakor seems to hate in their tribe. That's who I would talk to about suggestions for a target in Ogakor. So the TC may never be 5-5 and an Ogie goes. Talking to the "loose lips" because they are more likely to talk. Besides, you'd probably see it anyway over two days.

This was mentioned on another thread....buuut if the previous vote rule stays intact, I really doubt ~anyone~ would martyr themselves like that.

"Oh my God! Meatball subs! I love those! Oh my God!" - "That skinny chick"'s most memorable line

we all know that it would be suicide to vote agianst your own tribe, ESPECIALLY for this weeks TC. So logically, you should expect a 5-5 vote...but the other line of thinking goes with MB saying that some of these idiots made the same mistakes as were made in S1. As in, the Pagongs voting off one of their own, thereby sealing their own fate..... i could see possibly Jerri voting for Keith or Colby, she could serve Keith and his 3 TC votes to the Kuchas real easy, and i could see either Colby or Keith voting for Jerri.....it wouldnt be smart but sometimes emotions take over. If there is a 5-5 tie vote though, i think the Ogakors will target Jeff, and the Kuchas will go for Colby, with Jeff going due to priorn TC votes. not a spoiler just speculation, like everyone else.

The fact that with Mike gone, Kucha has no clear cut leader could be a problem. If they waste too much time and effort on that and not enough on voting strategy, they could be indecisive. And Nick, ... what the hell does he think anyway... does he know english? Maybe he jumps because he doesn't seem affiliated strongly to anyone. I think that both teams will know past voting history by the time that TC rolls around. I agree with all, 1 team will stand dominant after tonight and for the next few weeks.

"What do you call a boomerang that won't come back... a stick"