Matty will keep on keeping on at RI, and after this week the Ome's will have to start eating their own.

I like gup's thinking on why Steve goes first but Rob could have voted Steve last week but he didn't. I think Rob is most worried about Matt on RI and he thinks Rooster is stronger than Steve overall. He just thought Julie was stronger last week than 2 guys. He thinks Steve is weakest.

Grant wins Log Rolling IC

Rob wins 2nd IC if there is one

I think Matt wins RI truel and Julie is gone coming in last, Mike is 2nd..and stays...then it will be 4 on RI until after first F5 and quadruels from here on out.

Big Congrats!

just... wow.
Phantastic job, em!

Thanks dabo and Tribey...I haven't got everything right ever I think (at least unspoiled seasons!)

Bigtime kudos!!!!

I'm dittoing emydi's picks for RI and TC.

Grant wins the IC.

There won't be a second challenge at TC, the immunity will have been good only for the first vote, ergo no one will be immune in the second vote. That's my take on what will happen.

Ralph is the biggest threat from the Zaps to possibly take Matt out.

I truly believe all of this "positivity" for Phillip in this promo is his downfall.

As for Matt and Mike on RI, It'll be the same old story. Matt cries and talks about Jesus. Mike consoles him, but comes in 2nd in the duel. Julie heads to Ponderosa.

Forgot to put who wins IC.

I never get these right. Just pure speculation.

see: emydi's analysis.

Matt isn't going anywhere & I'm picking him now to be the one to come back into the game at F5. But I'm not to sure if he or Mike gets 1st in the truel -- Julie is the definite 3rd place (and 2nd jury member).

I'll go with Andrea for the log rolling IC win.

Ralph 1st boot.

Steve 2nd boot (if that is the twist).

Final peals of the Pagong will be heard, and things will get crowded at RI.

Rooster gets the normal kill, then Steve is sacrificed as well... Meanwhile, whatever the challenge at RI is, it won't favor Julie and the boys get to welcome their new visitors soon... with Matt this time edging out Mike.

I'm in awe of you. Excellent picks this week.

Way...to...go!

Many kudos for thinking this out correctly

I expect Steve and Ralph will finish off being pagonged and it was a good reason for the double boot. They wanted to get it over and move on.

Grant will win IC since he is the most physical threat left.

Don't think there will be time for a second IC.

Matt's luck has to run out eventuallly. He is last in the duel. Julie in the middle. Mike wins.

LAST EDITED ON 04-26-11 AT 06:34 PM (EST)

First, a woman has to win sooner or later because Phil is supposed to last every man on Zapatera! Therefore Mike is toast but really, all that matters is that Matt stays.

For IC: Grant will win. That log rolling is based on footwork and football players are used to exercises that involve good footwork.

Steve is toast because, knowing how much Ralph wanted to stay, Rob will give him that much. Next, if there's another TC, we'll see the Rooster's last call. Rob promised F6 to his troops, he'll give them that.

ETA: The Jury wins the second IC unless they are not eligible then I'll go with Ashley because Andrea pays her debt.

Grant wins 1st IC, if there are 2 IC's Rob will win the other one. I think he's too observant to lose the kind of quiz about his tribemates that I think a 2nd IC might be.

excellent job making the guesses.

<bowing to a greater mind>

Kudos!

Julie comes in first on RI and Matt makes it through at the last moment. Most likely GOD will continue to carry him. That'll continue until GOD gets busy helping one of the American Idol contestants.
Mike joins the jury. More because even though he won last week he had no confessionals and is experiencing the dip before the exit.

I'm still not sold on the double boot. Nor the Andrea on fire near exit. What I am sold on is that Phillip has his best day ever!
1. He finds his shorts!
2. His biggest enemy becomes the target. Steve.
3. He's given a chance to field 'offers' from key castaways. (Which sound a lot better than they actually turn out to be.)

I see this episode more as the beginning of the final days of Rob. Seeing Andrea in trouble leads me to believe that those plans will be thwarted. Whether through Immunity or twist, Andrea will stay alive. Setting up further for Rob's worst fears to come true. He's made the first move.
Throwing one of his own under the bus before their is need to will open the door for all the Ometepe to become more receptive to alternate end results.

Quick Pick Entry:
RI Winner: Julie
RI Loser: Mike
IC Winner: Andrea
TC votee: Steve

The order is 3rd/2nd/1st. But it is clear in reading tribe's post he meant to vote Julie as the winner of the duel, reversed the order in his subject line ballot. This CORRECTION post is presented as a service and no other meaning should be read into it than that for tallying purposes it is easier to use the subject line ballots. All posts are read and enjoyed.

at RI : Julie comes first, Matt second(lives again) and Mike sent to Jury

Andrea wins IN!!!

Steve is voted out

Then comes the twist!!!

Another vote..
Maybe there is IC b4 that, tho I doubt it.
But if there is Rooster wins.

Omes votes out Phillip, tho Rob may have wanted to keep hil around.

Steve is voted off first
Rooster is voted off last

Julie wins at XI and Mike finishes last and makes the walk of shame to the Ponderosa.

Can't wait to see Robfadda's new show!~!!!

see post #19. Maybe I'm just in petty tyrant mood at the moment.

LAST EDITED ON 04-27-11 AT 10:38 AM (EST)

Tough week!

II winner of log roll: Boston Rob, only because he did well last time. If not Rob, Grant

If there is a 2nd boot as speculated, The last of the ZAPS, Steve will be going to RI.

If there is a second II: Boston Rob

Matt will win the RI Tru-el.

Julie will join her frenemy David at Ponderosa.

I think we can't go by the normal rules of editing this year, they are really keeping the boots well hidden.

Not a lot of time this week, so just getting my vote in without explanation.

Andrea wins the IC.

LAST EDITED ON 04-27-11 AT 06:12 PM (EST)

Changing vote to Steve getting the axe first and then Ralph in second surprise vote. However, I am really thinking that a second vote out is not what "changes the game". I think we (definitely me) jumped too quickly on that idea. I have this feeling something else is happening. I wonder if it's just that Jeff reveals something about the way RI works with returnees or something...

IC: Still Andrea.
Duel: Matt wins, Mike in second and Julies loses

I think Steve is on the chopping block ahead of Ralph for the simple reason that Ralph does the fishing and other keep busy stuff, he's useful and he doesn't mind working, whereas Steve is a good guy but he's tired and doesn't do all that much. Rob may also realize that his obsession about Matt on RI is his problem, the rest of the Omes may relax a bit if it seems he's not worried about Matt anymore.

Ralph goes second if they have to vote out someone else at TC, it doesn't even have to be stated that completing the Pagonging of Zapatera is the order of the day.

We've had nothing about RI this week except Matt's whining. And Matt's sudden Christian media tour. This tells me Matt continues at RI. Nothing about a woman at RI? Julie probably goes to the jury, Mike continues his stand-by substitute for Matt if it happens to happen game. Just guessing but I think Mike continues to come in ahead of Matt, great drama for the yuppie Christian viewers.

In the challenges, there have been no rewards for a long time, not since the merge, so the Omes haven't been trained how to deal with individual reward situations. Andrea wins immunity and then plays politics by sharing with Rob and Grant because that's where the money is for the time being.

If there is a challenge at TC it is probably trivia, probably how well they remember their pre-game training how to survive particular to Nicaragua. Dumb as Ralph may be he probably absorbed and retained all of that stuff, so Rob has to go all out to beat Ralph and does.

boot 1: Steve
boot 2: Ralph
duel winner: Mike
duel loser: Julie to the jury
duel middle: Matt continues in the game
first immunity rolling logs: Andrea
second immunity trivia: Rob by a hair

1st Votee Steve - I'm going with Steve as the first votee, since he almost beat Rob, at his(Rob's) own claim-to-fame...puzzle master. And since Julie's Insider confessional mentioned that Steve's recent burger-fest revitalized him, I think he's moved up to top-blip on Rob's radar screen. And you'd get no objection from Phillip on that. Two birds with one stone...Robus modus operandi.

2nd Votee, Ralph - At the second 'mystery package' reveal, a second votee scramble. Even w/o time to arrange strings to pull, Rob has his squad in cult-mode for the auto-vote. No time for any thinking about a silly betrayal.

IC winner, Andrea - She's closest to JP when the toss is made. I think the sitting posture is explained by the nature of the Reward. Likely food and letters or Sprint phone video from home. In either case, she would be sitting down on the short bench to watch/re-watch them. Meanwhile JP takes care of business and sends the losers back to camp with the mystery package to ponder over. Thus all the long faces back at camp: no family message and a new twist at TC.

RI Truel, Matt wins, Mike second, Julie to Jury. Because we've seen no hint of what the truel is about and the fact that we have a female up against 2 athletic males, I'm thinking this will be a boring mental chal of some type(puzzle?). And in Matt's recent Christian confessional, he states...

"Physically, I had lost a ton of weight and struggled to stand without seeing stars and feeling like I would pass out. Mentally, my mind simply wouldn't slow down"

I'm thinking that Matt will excell at any mental chal remaining and struggle at the physical or endurance ones. Thus I'm picking Matt for the win. Julie, I think was done with the game when she taunted phillip and ate the 'spite' rice. You don't do that if you're still working for Jury votes. Plus I think she struggled at the last puzzle chal in which she participated. And that leaves Mike in the middle to challenge new arrivals Ralph and Steve at the quaduel.

That's my best guesses for this week. Enjoy the show guys.

LAST EDITED ON 04-27-11 AT 04:07 PM (EST)

This is post #22, vote tally #1, compiling 21 previous posts; 19 vote, 2 correction (just part of the service), no others.

Duel Finish Orders (19)
JW/MC/ME: 8
JW/ME/MC: 6
MC/ME/JW: 3
MC/JW/ME: 1
ME/JW/MC: 1

Julie has 14 3rd votes, 2 2nd votes, 3 1st votes.
Matthew has 1 3rd vote, 9 2nd votes, 9 1st votes.
Mike has 4 3rd votes, 8 2nd votes, 7 1st votes.

First Boot (19)
Ralph: 10
Steve: 9

Second Boot (19)
Steve: 9
Ralph: 5
Phillip: 4
none: 1

Boot Totals (37)
Steve: 18
Ralph: 15
Phillip: 4

First Immunity (14)
Grant: 7
Andrea: 6
Rob: 1

Second Immunity (11)
Rob: 5
no second immunity: 3
Ralph: 2
jury: 1

ETA: I'm not going to update for two votes at the moment, but Steve is now the leader for both the first and second boot.

1st immunity - Andrea
2nd immunity - Grant

LAST EDITED ON 04-27-11 AT 04:38 PM (EST)

Boy this is getting complicated! I have thought about it, and I think Steve will be first. I do believe there will be a surprise vote again as is instructed by the mystery package. If it's so surprising than the Old Omes will most likely all vote for the last Zap standing.

I think Mike and Matt will advance on RI, leaving Julie to head to the jury. I think Mike will win first place, Matt second...

I think that Grant will win the IC log rolling. It very well could be the Sprint phones and letters from home. Could be why Phillip is so happy, he gets a letter from home. I think that Grant and Rob will get to speak to their spouses. Should be good...

Going with the emydi/Blindfreddy hybrid vote:

Julie loses RI Challenge, Matt wins.
Andrea wins log rolling IC
Ralph is first votee
Steve is second votee (if that is the twist)

Julie loses the truel and goes to the jury. Mike and Matt are spared for another truel.

Andrea wins Immunity, ensuring the demise of one of Zapatera. The Ometepe tribe decides on Steve and he heads to RI. If there's a second vote, Ralph joins him.