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Original Message
"Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by tribephyl on 04-21-11 at 02:12 AM
Please place all vidcaps and talk about vidcaps for episode 11 below.
Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by tribephyl on 04-21-11 at 02:14 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-21-11 AT 04:34 PM (EST)
















Transcript:
Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor...
Phillip: I'm truly blessed.
Probst: Phillip has his greatest day, yet.
Rob (Confessional): "it's all about getting rid of the right person at the right time...."
Probst: While Andrea could be scheduled for an early departure.
Matt (Confessional): I'm just so over this game, man
Jeff: And Matt plumbs the darkest depths of his soul.
Matt: I'm so over this game, man. I'm out here wasting away. God has literally been carrying me.

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by Krautboy on 04-21-11 at 02:53 AM
First impressions...Rob may finally be ready to consider an Ometepe boot. The timing may be right.

He is shown considering Andrea, but this is probably misdirection and Andrea will be this weeks boot decoy.

Meanwhile Phillip is edited as content and at peace. As he mentioned, his relationship with Rob has come full circle. His story may come to an end this week in the wake of the last TC.

...or the Pagonging will simply continue and Phillip and Andrea are interesting distractions.



Krautboy

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by CTgirl on 04-21-11 at 11:48 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-21-11 AT 12:27 PM (EST)

I don't think Rob will boot an Ometepe until all the Zaps are gone. However, if there is a double boot at TC and either Steve or Rooster has immunity, then he would have to.

The Omes probably haven't spoken about who is bottom of the alliance. Rob is trying to keep them unified. It would be wild if at the second vote, they didn't have time to strategize. Everyone would have to make their own decision! Rob wants to keep Phillip but how many of the others do? The remaining Zap might choose to put his vote on the poison (especially if it is Steve.) ETA: And this is a way that Phillip could get voted out without Rob being able to control it.

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-21-11 at 11:57 AM
CTGirl, I like your spec about them not having time to strategize on the 2nd vote. There's precedent for this and it would also tie in with Jeff's comment that the TC twist catches everyone off guard. Hope they at least give us IC vidcaps this week so we can figure out if Ralph or Steve even have a chance at immunity.

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by michel on 04-22-11 at 06:28 PM
From Insider clips, we know that Natalie also wants to keep Phillip around and, if they don't have time to strategize, the second boot would almost automatically be the remaining Zap unless they have immunity.

Have we heard about 2 boots this week?

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by CTgirl on 04-22-11 at 11:14 PM
Nothing definite about a double boot just spec on the mystery package (parallel to the bottle in Cook Islands).
"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-21-11 at 07:39 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-21-11 AT 08:04 AM (EST)

Boy, it looks as the SEG has screwed up the transcript...here's what was said:

Phillip says, "I am truly blessed", sitting on a rock at camp in his pink undies..
.Jeff: Phillip has his greatest day yet!

In confessional, Rob: "it's all about getting rid of the right person at the right time...."

Jiffy: While Andrea could be headed for an early departure. (See her at camp...)

Jeff: Meanwhile on RI: Matt says while sitting alone at RI, crying, "I'm so over this game, man"....While Matt sinks to the darkest depths of his soul. "I'm out here wasting away, God's literally been carrying me..."see Matt crying.

Cut to Julie arriving at RI...."Here I am at RI, I was not expecting this, I really thought it would be Ralph or Steve, but I'm ok with it...It just was an ugly tribal...there's a poison in that tribe and his name is Phillip. It's kinda nice to be removed from it"...and then Julie comes up to the RI shelter and screams, and says, "did I scare you guys?"

ETA: AS I noted in the East Coast Thread that Rob is now going to give us a glimpse at his strategy to start eliminating his own tribe. I am eager to see how he plans to pull this off.

I agree with Krautboy, boot decoy: Andrea. Possible boot candidates, Phillip with a capital "P", and Rooster/Steve. They can't tease us with a Phillip boot EVERY week, can they? I keep coming back to this picture...

"Matt"
Posted by dabo on 04-21-11 at 10:27 AM
Matt sinks further into his depression. This could indicate he loses, though with only one at a time going to jury he has a good chance of staying but continuing to come in second. While the Matt v. Rob theory is good, with this added factor of depression Matt really only needs an epiphany to finish his story.
"RE: Matt"
Posted by parathor on 04-21-11 at 01:24 PM
The guy whines too much. I get that he's lonely, starving, tired, bored... but he's playing for a million dollars, earns a big paycheck the further that he goes, and if he's THAT much over Survivor, then quit already. I was pulling for Matt to come in second, because that'd be a great redemption story, but now I'm done with him.

I love how editing manipulates me...

"RE: Matt"
Posted by dabo on 04-21-11 at 08:00 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-21-11 AT 08:01 PM (EST)

love how editing manipulates me...

Which is exactly why they don't let America vote, if they did they would be manipulating the winners always. That was one big change that Russell whined they should make, seems they've done everything but with this RI twist.

"RE: Matt"
Posted by bondt007 on 04-22-11 at 01:31 PM
I wondered if the close up of Matt's tower from the last challenge falling was a clue that he's done.


"RE: Matt"
Posted by dabo on 04-22-11 at 01:39 PM
LOL!

One way or another I would very much like to see the end of Matt's tower of babble.

The house of cards, shakey tower, no firm foundation, there's just a wealth of possible parable possibilities there.

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-21-11 at 10:40 AM
Not that it's all that significant, but there is a missing vidcap from the promo.

What's interesting about that sequence is that the editors deliberately chose to showcase Matt on the beach getting smaller and smaller.

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-21-11 at 02:09 PM
Thanks so much for pointing that out, VG. Manipulating is exactly what the editing is doing. In fact, I believe it is leading us right down the garden path....

If you go and watch the insider clips, there is one of Matt and he is speaking of his horrible experience after being voted out for the second time....how depressed he was and to what depths he sank to, and how his family wouldn't want him to quit, and how he was wasting away. Essentially, he was telling us in the Insider clip what we were shown a glimpse of as happening next week.

RI has got to be far better with other people there to stay with....what we will see next week, the horrible depths that Matt has sunk to, actually happened when he was first voted off for the second time. The editors want us to believe that Matt is going down....it's a red herring, imo.


"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by kiki_k on 04-21-11 at 02:49 PM
Agreed. This is Matt asking God to "take this cup from his lips" just like Jesus in the olive grove.

The Jesus edit Matt is getting is becoming less & less subtle. I wouldn't be surprised if the very last "duel" on RI involves getting on a cross.

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by CTgirl on 04-21-11 at 05:40 PM
Like parathor, I find Matt's edit extremely annoying and about as subtle as a mack truck. Everyone says in their exit interviews that Matt is a great guy but we see him whining and crying. Every confessional is about his faith. I think he is being heavily manipulated. (Kristina even said in one of her podcast interviews that she didn't even know he was that religious until she saw the show). They are leaving little doubt that Matt and Rob will meet up again but until EPMB starts to flesh out his character, I don't have much confidence that Matt has what it takes to make the end.
"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 04-21-11 at 06:31 PM
I think it's also worth remembering that Jesus was sentenced to death in the end so it's certainly plausible that Rob (as Pontius Pilate) sentences Matt (Jesus) to Loser Lodge for once and all in the end.

Of course, there was also a resurrection of Jesus after three days ... so many ways for the editors to manipulate this beyond belief. Likewise, I find the edit to be rather annoying.

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-24-11 at 06:36 PM
The other Jesus-like option I've been kicking around in my mind is that Matt could "give up his life" to save someone else. Perhaps it's just Easter on the brain today, but I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen, esp. if Andrea gets sent to RI. I've always thought that sending Andrea to RI would be a smart move on Rob's part.
"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-21-11 at 08:18 PM
The Jesus edit Matt is getting is becoming less & less subtle. I wouldn't be surprised if the very last "duel" on RI involves getting on a cross.


LMAO, kiki!!! Funniest quote I've ever read at Blows! Ha!



"{{{Blush}}}"
Posted by kiki_k on 04-21-11 at 10:43 PM
Thank you FloPo -- that makes me feel great, especially from someone as funny as you!
"RE: {{{Blush}}}"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-24-11 at 06:02 AM
LMAO that was funny.

hey kiki, the final duel is named "A Leg Up." So he might have to climb onto a cross.
(j/k)

The two challenges a returnee will face to get into the F3 are
"Numbers Game" F5
and
"Meso Maze." F4

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by 5cats on 04-23-11 at 08:53 PM
"...the very last "duel" on RI involves getting on a cross."

LOL kiki_k! Wish there was a LIKE button here! So sick of Matt and his religion crap!

"RE: Post-Show Vidcaps"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-21-11 at 03:40 PM

Any thoughts on what could make it Phillip's "greatest day yet" or why that would be important to focus on? I'm also wondering why they zoom in on his feet in this sequence? (It's more noticeable in the actual clip) Could the bird in the sky/his grandfather drop a feather or a sign to him again? Maybe the clues will help if they ever come out.

The other interesting thing to me when scanning these vidcaps is how they've juxtapositioned Rob/Andrea/Matt. Once again, it appears this pair is what's standing in Rob's way. Interesting how none of the Zaps even appear in this promo.

"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-21-11 at 09:27 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-21-11 AT 09:29 AM (EST)

I wanted to echo what OFG pointed out in the insider clip thread...this could well be a double boot episode, as it would set up for the family visit in the following episode quite nicely...so, to speculate more as to what Krautboy said, perhaps with Rob noting, "you have to know the right person to vote out at the right time" will come into play, and either one of Phillip or Andrea will be voted out, in ADDITION to one of Ralph or Steve...food for thought!

ETA: I wanted to expound that this is a very ominous vidcap...

"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-21-11 at 09:58 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-21-11 AT 10:06 AM (EST)

I agree, looks like double boot. Another piece of evidence that supports that is Jeff's tweet about next week: "will Phillip find his shorts? And a big twist at tribal council!!"

This is the critical decision point for Rob -- should be interesting!

ETA: Just noticed that Jeff says in EW that "a twist at TC will catch everyone off guard," which appears to imply a double boot.

"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-21-11 at 10:09 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-21-11 AT 10:11 AM (EST)

At least part of the reason Rob would want to boot Andrea early is because he realizes Matt has an even better shot at coming back again now. If Andrea goes to RI one of them must leave the game eventually.

"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by parathor on 04-21-11 at 01:28 PM
...which seems to imply (if Rob is considering this - which the promo suggests), that Matt stays alive at RI again at the beginning of the episode. Which should narrow our choices back to Mike or Julie being the 2nd juror (I'll say... Julie!)
"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by emydi on 04-21-11 at 11:04 AM
for a split second last nite I thought I saw Philip's shorts but I don't see them here I think he'll find his shorts the whole bunch of them will help!!
"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-21-11 at 11:29 AM
Well they all have a vested interest in covering him up
"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-21-11 at 02:13 PM
Well they all have a vested interest in covering him up

What? You don't like his new Survivor Buff loincloth?

"Web Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-21-11 at 10:41 PM
http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor/video/?pid=STjiWJw8k93us1VDKQWyLrCEzMcazhyU

Challenge is log roll!

You can see the mystery package wrapped in a cloth. Looks like Jeff throws it to Steve and tells him to bring it to TC, but it's unclear whether it's just for him or for everyone.

Going to check if the vidcaps are posted yet to bring them over.

"RE: Web Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-25-11 at 11:52 AM
A different version of the Full Promo was aired last night. It is a slightly expanded version of the 20 seconds promo. There is more recycled footage, but only one new sequence, featuring Andrea.


This new promo removed the entire Matt sequence, as well as the challenge footage.

"Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-21-11 at 11:13 PM
VO: After 21 days on Redemption Island...
Matt: "God's literally been carrying me."
VO: ... has Matt finally broken?
Matt: "I'm just so over this game, man."















VO: And...
Phillip: "Zaba Doo Da. Hey!"
VO: ... Phillip gets kookier by the day.
Steve: "He's a different breed."
VO: How has he managed to survive?
Rob: "As long as he keeps up his stupid antics... he's under my protection."



































VO: But, will a surprise twist...
Probst: "Bring it with you to Tribal Council."
VO: ... change the game completely?
Rob: "I don't understand why there has to be a twist. Always a twist."
VO: New Survivor, CBS Wednesday.






































"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-21-11 at 11:47 PM
Thanks VG! These are awesome! I am so psyched about the log challenge. Rob vs. Grant should be a great match-up.

LOL, so looks like Phillip has his shorts back. He and Natalie look hilarious in their matchup. Isn't Phillip a skater? He might actually do better on this than we think, although Natalie would seem to have the edge with good balance.

Re the Mystery Package: So why is Jeff tossing it only to Steve? Is it specifically for Steve or does it apply to the entire tribe? Looks like Ralph's hair and Natalie's hair are wet when sitting on the log when Jeff throws the package, so it appears he throws it out after the log challenge.


In this shot, does it looks like food in the corner (covered by mosquito nets)? I tried to blow it up but hard to tell. They just did a food drop-out so can't imagine they'd do it again but maybe it's part of the reward? Or would Steve opt out of eating to get the "mystery package"/advantage? You can see he's standing closest to the mosquito net bubbles.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-22-11 at 01:02 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-22-11 AT 01:28 AM (EST)

P.S. Here's Amber winning this challenge for her tribe in All Stars. I had forgotten that she had done well...guess it goes to show that the smaller women can do well.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=slQeKO4vef4

ETA This is making me think that Andrea or Ashley could win this...or Rob/Grant. I'm ruling out Phil, Ralph, Steve and Nat for now since they are sitting on the bench when Jeff throws the mystery package...although I guess we can't say for sure what the timing is.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-22-11 at 07:30 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-22-11 AT 07:55 AM (EST)

Yes, Amber smoked this challenge. As I recall, Rob did very well also...he beat Ethan, the soccer player at it...But, from the vidcaps, it looks as though perhaps Grant gets the best of him...?

Observations of the Promo:

It is "starring" Phillip. I know that I have predicted Phillip's demise several times before, but, Phillip is starring in this promo, it's all about him. To me, with his quote last week that he's come full circle with trust regarding Rob, that his journey is over. He was pitted against Rob for control of the tribe since day 1. Now, he has come full circle, he trusts Rob to get him to the finals. This spells disaster for Phillip, imo. Rob is worried about the twist, perhaps for himself, and perhaps for his goat, Phillip.

OTOH, we heard in the preview promo that Phillip has his best day yet, and then the camera points to his feet as he says, "I am truly blessed". Then, when you note his performance with Natalie on the log roll, is it possible that Phillip may actually win an IC? Stranger things have happened. We have to consider that Phillip could win the IC, and will be immune at the TC. He does seem in an awfully good mood this go round....food for thought. If he wins the IC, he'll be toast next week, more than likely....but, how many times does he escape the boot?

Notice, there are NO pictures of Andrea on the radar...that's a good thing for her. (Does Andrea's name come up when Phillip possibly wins the IN?) There is an ominous picture of Ralph...Steve receives the "package", and seems to be back to narrating. Will Rob be able to predict a double boot? I think he could...they ALL are aware of the numbers. There is no doubt that Rob will indeed take his HII, a twist is not going to be a "good thing".

On RI, it's still all about Matt. Now, however, they are creating doubt that he can last, with his low moods and his feelings of failure. We are led to believe his time is over...but, there are no comments from Julie or Mike. RI is Matt's island, still. Matt will live to see another lonely day.

Preliminary thoughts, Ralph is toast. Steve could be toast as well. Phillip looks like he's in trouble, but his starring role could spell his demise either this week, or next....

*Also wanted to note there are some shots of Grant as well, could he be a boot decoy here?

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by michel on 04-22-11 at 06:47 PM
"how many times does he (Phillip) escape the boot?"

I noted in the editing thread that this sequence seemed intent on showing us he still has legs in the story...

...and now we see it in the recap?! I think Phillip is staying.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by KimberA00 on 04-22-11 at 09:07 AM
If the TC vidcaps are to be believed as current, then we can also rule out Rob since there's no IN around his neck.

That leaves us with Grant, Ashley, or Andrea winning the IC. If Andrea is the boot decoy, she didn't win either. And Ashley is all but absent from any vidcaps so I'm putting my money on Grant winning this one.

With Rob's comment about "why is there always a twist", tells me he's working out his strategy with Grant. And of course since Grant's "his own man", Rob will have Grant come up with the next plan of action which was really Rob's idea all along.

I dunno... just my 2 cents.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-22-11 at 10:05 AM

Great observations, KimberAOO...here are the TC shots this week...

Rooster, sporting a new hairdo...

Rob, as you note with no IN around his neck...is this current?

...I would bet most likely it is?

then, Phillip, also with no IN around his neck...sporting only one feather...is this current?

Good spec, there, Kimber...you can see, I think Ashley's bun between Rob and Grant as Rob notes the twist as well...


"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-22-11 at 11:05 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-22-11 AT 11:07 AM (EST)

Yep, that is definitely Ashley behind Rob/Grant.


Does this look like it could be Ashley's or Andrea's hair in the lower corner when Jeff throws the package to Steve? Or is it just brush/hut/something else? Just wondering if the immunity winner could be standing near Jeff when he throws the package or is everyone on the bench. Also, is it just a random throw to Steve on behalf of everyone? Or could Steve be the winner? (Can't imagine Steve doing well in this challenge) Also trying to figure out the timing. You can see that Natalie's hair is up when she's on the log with Phillip...but it's down when she's sitting on the bench, which is why I'm assuming the bench/package shot is after the challenge.

Re TC shots: Good catch, Kimber! I'm too lazy to go back and check if they are current . I'm pretty sure Phillip was shirtless this last TC, but could have had the feather and shirt the time before. Agree w/FloPo that Rooster's hair looks different but who knows. The Rob TC shots all look the same to me although would be interesting to confirm if he's worn the hat backwards before at TC.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by Woogie on 04-22-11 at 11:29 AM

Does this look like it could be Ashley's or Andrea's hair in the lower corner when Jeff throws the package to Steve? Or is it just brush/hut/something else?

With this picture below, I guess there is a great chance that it's Andrea, with that dark band on her hair.


"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by KimberA00 on 04-22-11 at 11:57 AM
If you scroll back up and look at the shot of Grant and Rob on the log, Grant's got his hair pulled back by the buff and that could be his stinky dreads getting caught in the vidcap.

Yep, that's my story and I'm sticking to it!

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-22-11 at 12:02 PM
Good point, could be Grant, Ashley or Andrea. They're making such a big deal of the Grant/Rob matchup in the promo that it would make sense for Grant to win.
"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-23-11 at 06:31 PM
::Re-posting:: in hopes this is closer to the intended subject matter under review.

Some frame by frame crops of the left side blonde hair + Andrea hair band pic for comparison

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by dabo on 04-23-11 at 06:38 PM

Ashley and Ralph. Ralph is later in a different position.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-23-11 at 09:05 PM
Nice job, Freddy! I think you are right. Andrea's hair is shorter layers than Ashleys...Ashley's, because it is lnoger, tends to stay very nicely up in her bun. But, because Andrea's is shorter, her layers can come loose...here are some comparison shots of the length of their hair...






If I was a gambling woman, my money would be on Andrea, who is sitting next to Jiffy...

Good job, Freddy!

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-23-11 at 10:15 PM
Thanks FloPo but great catches by SquidProQuo and Woogie in their initial analysis. Actually I think Flowerpower's posted pic above better shows the dangling strands than mine...which look similiar to the ones in the JP 'mystery' throw pic. So I subbed it into the pic collage for comparison.

Updated version w/mirrored Andrea pic. Compare the dangled strands

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-25-11 at 09:46 AM
The best shot I could get from what was aired over the week-end follows. To my eyes, it looks more like regular hair shadows than a hairband, but it's not clear enough to be definite.

Sorry for the poor quality.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-25-11 at 09:58 AM
That's amazing, as always, VG! Thanks so much for posting. For me, what is definitive is the length of her layers. Clearly, this is Andrea. Now, is she sitting on the short bench after the win, or will she compete in the finals?


"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-25-11 at 10:24 AM
From the angle, I think is sitting down.
Probst doesn't usually give things out until the challenge is over, so we already should have a winner.
It may be fair to spec that advances in the heats, or even wins, given where she is situated, but there is nothing definitive about it.
"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-24-11 at 06:32 PM
Thanks Freddy -- I was pretty sure that was Andrea when I originally spotted the hair. Now the big question is whether she's closest to Jeff because she won the IC...or she is just sitting on the bench, perhaps as a finalist.
"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-22-11 at 12:34 PM
Nice catch on the hair, Squid. Once we get the aired promos, it should be easier to tell.

Don't have time to research the other TC shots right now, but I do know off hand that Rob's shot is from the second TC of E9.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by vince3 on 04-22-11 at 12:55 PM
I think Phillip's shot is also from E9 because that was when he really started up with his feather look. I think at the last Tribal he only wore those undies and the feather...
"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by kingfish on 04-22-11 at 02:48 PM
Grant and Nat should be the pre-race favorites in the log roll, Nat becasue of her performance on the non-moving log perch in the waiter challenge, and Grant because a pro receiver has to have pretty good coordination and balance as well. I wouldn't count Steve out though, because a linebacker in the pros is also a serious athlete, and has to have above average agility. He's big and old, and probably his joints are stiff, so his skills might have eroded.

And I bet he could out Wing Chung Kung Fu Phil.

Without anything else to go by, and I think one can discount the hair clues, (even the eventual winner(s) probably took a dip), Nat would be my pick. She just looked so right-at-home on the log earlier.

And seriously, can anyone picture Phil beating her? That would be a shocker. Unless of course another Grandparent, Sonia Henie, appeared to him on meditation rock with log rolling advice.


"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-22-11 at 03:39 PM
And seriously, can anyone picture Phil beating her?
Agree that Nat most likely beats Phil, but there are typically multiple rounds to this challenge, so she'd have to beat a couple others to win.

Also agree that most likely everyone gets their hair wet, so that in and of itself is not a spoiler, but the main reason we're ruling out Nat, Phil, Steve and Ralph is because they appear to be sitting on the bench post-challenge and don't have the immunity necklace so most likely are "out." (Note in the shot where Rob and Grant are on the log, the people who are "waiting" for their turn appear to be standing vs. sitting on the bench.)

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by kingfish on 04-22-11 at 05:46 PM
Admittedly it does look like Nat is losing it here:

And I think it's a given that the eventual winner would have to win more than once. An 8 person showdown requires 7 heats.

I understand the point you are making, and it is reasonable. It does seem that this would have to be a post-comp picture, But they sure appear to be dry. Nat's hair especially. There is no moisture apparent on any on them that I can see. Maybe the challenge was just so long that they managed to dry out after their heats, and maybe Nat let her hair down to dry, she has it up while on the log. But a log roll, even with several heats, is pretty much a wham bam competition, right? Not enough time to really drip dry? And per force either Nat or Phil would have to have lasted into the second round, at least. Phil's shorts and Nat's hair both look to have had time to dry, or this is a pre-Challenge pic.

I guess I'm leaning toward Grant winning, though. I don't think Rob would prevail in a head to head with Grant.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by dabo on 04-22-11 at 03:39 PM
If we assess on skillsets and what we've seen--

Andrea (good) - small and quick, stays active, doesn't care who wins as long as it isn't a Zap but does like to prove worth (Andrea in possible trouble promo could be a set up for her winning immunity)

Ashley (bad) - lazy in camp but women's b-ball and pageants both require a certain poise and poetry in motion, doesn't care who wins as long as it isn't a Zap, doesn't care about proving anything

Grant (good) - size could work for or against him but stays well focussed and receivers have to scramble, doesn't care who wins as long as it isn't a Zap

Natalie (moderate) - lazy in camp but turns it on for challenges, dancer, well balanced, doesn't care who wins as long as it isn't a Zap

Phillip (wild card) - big and clumsy but stays active, would sit out for cheeseburgers, insanity/unpredictability gives him a "worst swordsman" advantage (as in "The best swordsman in France doesn't fear the second best, he fears the worst.")

Ralph (moderate) - stays active, accustomed to country terrain, will give it a go and probably regards these polished uniform manufactured logs kind of sissy

Rob (good) - old hockey guy, done this before, doesn't care who wins as long as it isn't Zap but as leader of Omes has to set a good example for troops

Steve (bad) - will try but knees are shot, nothing else matters, if he doesn't win each round quickly it is simply a matter of out-lasting him

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by Krautboy on 04-22-11 at 05:08 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-11 AT 11:58 AM (EST)

Building on Dabo's assessment, Andrea looks like the most likely challenge winner...


Notice Ralph with his hair “widow peak” style. Probably eating breakfast the morning of the challenge.

Notice Andrea or Ashley next to Ralph and Steve waiting to compete. Rob vs. Grant is apparently one of the early heats, so it looks like Rob is eliminated early.



Ralph in the background next to Ashley or Andrea with his hair “widow peak” style. Probably still in the competition at this point.



Natalie during the competition with her hair up.


Natalie with hair down and Ralph’s hair wet, no longer with a “widow’s peak”. As other’s have speculated, this is probably those who have been eliminated and after Immunity is awarded Jeff announces the mystery package. Those shown are not wearing the IN.


Rob's hair is mussed up, and his hat and buff layed out on his lap like they are drying. Grant usually wears his buff on his head around camp. He was wearing it during the challenge, but in this shot, after the challenge, it's not on his head...probably drying just like Rob's.

Since they faced off against each other, we can assume one of them lost to the other, and since they both appear wet and concerned, we might conclude that neither won...Had either of them won, they would probably be less concerned about the upcoming twist at TC.


So Phillip, Ralph, Steve and Natalie appear to have been eliminated, seen after the challenge without the necklace, Rob and Grant appear wet and concerned after returning to camp after the challenge, leaving Ashley and Andrea as the most likely winners of the log rolling challenge.

Rob (Confessional): "it's all about getting rid of the right person at the right time...."
Probst: While Andrea could be scheduled for an early departure.


Andrea is edited as being in trouble and the previews build suspense...probably misdirection for an Andrea boot until she wins the log rolling challenge and has immunity going to TC, forcing Rob and Grant to worry about the twist and re-think their TC strategy.


(Edited to clarify the Rob/Grant spec.)


Krautboy

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by kingfish on 04-22-11 at 06:02 PM
Reasonable spec, all the way to the Grant and Rob pic. (I would argue that Ralph's hair doesn't look wet despite the lack of a widows peak, but, admittedly your spec based on that is reasonable).

How does the Rob/Grant picture indicate that either didn't win IC? They're discussing something, and they aren't laughing or crying, but isn't it a major leap to conclude that they lost IC based on their possible looks of concern?

Is there an audio with the video that this was taken from that helps make that speculation?

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-22-11 at 06:19 PM
Kingfish, we can't rule out Rob and Grant 100% for sure -- but they don't look happy post-challenge and Rob is clearly concerned about the twist. And as KB mentions, the set-up for Andrea being in trouble in the 1st preview is most likely a decoy, which would make sense if she wins IC.

The other piece you might have missed above is that there appears to be yellow hair in the lower left corner when Jeff is tossing the mystery package to Steve (post challenge). Hopefully VG might be able to get us a better look at this -- if it is indeed yellow hair, then most likely that means that 1 of Andrea, Ashley or Grant win the challenge because typically the immunity winner would be standing near him (vs. the "losers" on the bench), then before he'd dismiss them, he'd make an announcement about the mystery package. This is still all spec based on this vidcap:

P.S. Kimber had a great point that Rob, Ralph and Phil aren't wearing the immunity necklace at TC so we can rule them out as IC winners. But I went back to the Ep9 footage and I'm pretty sure the TC caps are all old/from that episode -- e.g., Phil was wearing the same shirt/feather, etc.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by Krautboy on 04-22-11 at 06:24 PM
Yeah, the Rob/Grant spec is a little forced, but there was some thought that went into it...

Rob's hair is mussed up, and his hat and buff layed out on his lap like they are drying was the basis for it. In addition, Grant usually wears his buff on his head around camp. He was wearing it during the challenge, but in that shot, after the challenge, it's not on his head...again I assumed it's drying just like Rob's.

Since they faced off against each other, we can assume one of them lost to the other, and since they both appear wet and concerned, we might conclude that neither won...


Krautboy

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by kingfish on 04-22-11 at 07:32 PM
Yeah, maybe. But even the winner probably took a dip. Might have had to to get off the log.

That yellow hair in the JP pic. does seem like a pretty good Ashley/Andrea clue, though.

Well, it's just Friday.

Hopefully there will be more to look at this weekend and next week.

"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-25-11 at 09:29 AM
I finally checked to be certain: all three TC shots (Phillip, Rob and Ralph) were from the second TC in E9.
"RE: Vidcaps - Full (Web) Promo"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-23-11 at 06:17 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-23-11 AT 06:20 PM (EST)

deleted cause it posted no where near the subject matter intended.

BF

"Thoughts on Andrea's Early Departure"
Posted by michel on 04-22-11 at 09:30 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-22-11 AT 09:32 PM (EST)

Because of the construction of the Voice-over, it seems that Rob is targeting Amdrea but I'm sure everyone remembers this:

Together with her dangerous way of chopping food in a later episode, it made me think that Andrea could injure herself. Now, we have this vidcap:

And you'll understand why I thought of Skupin when I saw this.
That could be what happens: She burns herself. If we do hear there's a double boot then she must stay in the game.

"RE: Thoughts on Andrea's Early Departure"
Posted by dabo on 04-22-11 at 09:57 PM
Skupin went into the fire because he over-exerted himself in the heat, wasn't thinking clearly, and passed out, fell into the fire. Andrea here does not appear to be exhausted, dehydrated, disoriented, sweating profusely, sunburnt, foaming at the mouth, going postal, over-caffinated, inebriated, hypnotised, somnambulating, sucking wind, having a seizure, etc., just her normal active healthy self.
"RE: Thoughts on Andrea's Early Departure"
Posted by michel on 04-23-11 at 02:27 AM
Why the attack?

I'm not saying she does a face plant in the fire and gets 3rd degree (!) burns but she could have an accident, spill some boiling water on herself. Something that requires medical attention will be spun as game threatening when there's nothing but a pagonging going on.

"RE: Thoughts on Andrea's Early Departure"
Posted by dabo on 04-23-11 at 01:20 PM
Sorry if it seemed like an attack, it was late and the comparison to Skupin struck me as absurd. She's nothing like he was. More on point, his accident happened because he was suffering from a medical problem before he passed out, heat exhaustion. He kept pushing himself, didn't pay attention to the signals his body was sending him, and unfortunately the rest of the tribe were dealing with their own lethargy at the time so he was essentially by himself.

In the shot you presented Andrea does not appear to be suffering from heat exhaustion or anything else. And with the buddy system she shouldn't be alone. If she has an accident the chances are it won't be worthy of a medical evactuation, maybe some onsite treatment or a trip to the medical tent. That could affect her chances in future challenges, or she might become double determined to prove she's up to it, or Rob might have his excuse for a mercy boot (though with the RI twist what is a mercy boot?).

"RE: Thoughts on Andrea's Early Departure"
Posted by michel on 04-23-11 at 01:52 PM
It was the use of a dozen adjectives to separate Andrea from Skupin that looked like an attack. A veritable onslaught!

We already discussed it in PM but to let everyone know, it was the fire that brought the comparison between the two moments, not the players.

I doubt it will mean anything also: It's just hype.

"RE: Thoughts on Andrea's Early Departure"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-23-11 at 02:15 PM
Dabo, I didn't read it as an attack -- just your usually witty sense of humor .

Re the axe scene from Ep1: I do recall thinking back then that it could be foreshadowing, but my interpretation at the time was not necessarily that she's going to get hurt, but that the axe could be a metaphor for her being good at axing others. (But she did come dangerously close to getting cut by Rob pre-merge, so that's interesting, looking back.) If nothing else, I think the underlying message was that Andrea knew her way around the outdoors (axe included) and wasn't a frail young girl that Phillip could condescend to.

There was also that later scene between Andrea/Phillip that seemed to foreshadow that their fates could be tied and they might team up at some point...but that hasn't gone anywhere, so who knows.

"RE: Thoughts on Andrea's Early Departure"
Posted by dabo on 04-23-11 at 02:54 PM
Thanks. Long drive through stormy weather, including a quick stop to avoid an accident that happened right in front of me, I guess I was just in a mood.

Thinking about it..

Do we have a when on this scene? Looks like a merge buff but they haven't had a reward since the merge feast, Ometepe on rations ever since.

"RE: Thoughts on Andrea's Early Departure"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-23-11 at 07:09 PM
Do you mean is this an "old" vidcap? I hadn't checked on this one but the TC ones are definitely old. Seems like Andrea is a worker, so wouldn't be out of the ordinary for her to be helping with boiling water or cooking. Not sure what you mean related to reward -- are you thinking that some people leave and Andrea's one of the ones left behind?
"RE: Thoughts on Andrea's Early Departure"
Posted by dabo on 04-23-11 at 11:28 PM
I'm thinking four-week mark and she looks strong, not suffering. But this is definitely Camp Murlonio and there are at least eight torches behind her.
"RE: Thoughts on Andrea's Early Departure"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 04-22-11 at 10:04 PM
Wow, Michel! I think you might be on to something here. I wonder if she has to leave the game due to injury?

"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-23-11 at 07:05 PM

Meant to ask before: Is that a note/piece of paper taped to the shelter behind Phillip? Has it always been there? Just tree mail? Or could it come with the mystery package?

"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-24-11 at 04:21 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-11 AT 05:26 AM (EST)

note on how this challenge has been run in the past.

In All Stars it was run as an RC with six match-ups shown. Amber didn't exactly WIN the challenge. She made the winning point, and another point, so she did great, beating Shii Ann and Jerri.

Rob beat both Lex and Ethan.
In that challenge, it was men against men and women against women, so no match similar to Phillip vs. Natalie.

In the Amazon, also an RC, they showed 9 matches, also gender-matched. Heidi lost. I think she was top-heavy. Christy beat Jenna twice, and made the winning point.

In Gabon, it was an IC, so it should be run along similar lines.

F12, 6 pairs, not gender-matched.
Winner moves on to semi-finals, loser is out.

Six semi-finalists faced off, three out, three moved on to finals.

Final match-up, 3 on a log.

Semi-finalists were Charlie, Ace, Marcus, Randy, Sugar, Bob
Finalists Ace Sugar Marcus
Marcus won.

This was the double boot episode during the tribal phase, Marcus won individual immunity and assigned the other to Sugar.

At F8:
4 match-ups, 4 out, 4 moving on
Semi-finals, 2 more out, 2 move on
Finals

My guess is that people sitting are out of the challenge, but if standing to watch a match they are still in it?

Grant and Rob could be semi-finals or the final, or it could happen they got paired up on a first match-up. If the latter, then one of these two favorites would be out in round one.

If the semi, there could be two people on the sidelines still in it (if G/R are the first to go). But there are at least four people standing to watch Rob and Grant.

Andrea, Ralph, and Steve? Plus some shoes to the right of Andrea. Too many for the semi-finals, so I think Rob or Grant will not move on to the semi-finals. Rob beat soccer pro Ethan on this, and surfer Lex. He has been great at this challenge, but he looks a bit off balance to me in the last shot.

As for Natalie, I think she is going on. Phillip has stated that he has rhythm. With this challenge, you don't want to let your opponent get the log spinning fast or there is almost nothing you can do. It looks like Phillip gets Natalie that way.

The winner should have to win three matches.

They did something similar in the Outback as the F8 challenge. It wasn't logs per se, but they were on platforms and the semi's were on a shaky log.

Amber smoked that one too, but Nick knocked her in. (Nick beat Colby to win.)

Anyway, with that challenge too, if you lost once you were out. Keith, Tina, Jerri, and Lis lost in the first round. Amber and Roger lost in the semi-final round. There were no second chances.

Point being, when it's an IC you get eliminated if you fall off, whereas in the RC people did multiple match-ups. There should only be two semi-final rounds.

Phillip and Natalie's match, we can see Ashley and Ralph watching. Can anyone tell if they are standing or sitting?



"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-24-11 at 08:51 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-11 AT 08:53 AM (EST)

Thanks for bringing this challenge that has been run previously back to our attention, OFG. I found it very helpful. I distinctly remember that Rob was great at this challenge. Amber was as well.

I think you may have something with the standing and siitting. FWIW, I think that Ashley and Rooster are clearly sitting when Phillip is seen. Regarding Phillip with this challenge, I wouldn't be so quick to count him out. He's a skater, and they have good balance and foot work, imo. To me, it looks like Nat will be out, and Phillip is looking well balanced. I don't know.

I wouldn't discount Rob either. He's a scrambler, and is very scrappy with his feet, he's got sneaks and Grant has those espadrills. I would think that the shorter girls, with their lower center of gravity would have a better chance at this as well. I would discount Rooster, Steve, the poor lonely Zaps, out of this challenge.

Regarding the picture of Jiffy and Andrea's hair.


I like OFG's spec that the losers go and sit on the bench...here are the ones that are seen sitting when Jiffy makes the toss....

I would think since this picture takes place when they are on the long bench, while Andrea is on the short bench, that it is toward the very end of the challenge...Nat's hair is down, so, she could have taken it down, while sitting on the bench waiting for the challenge to proceed. Or, it is in the beginning, pre-challenge. If it's pre-challenge than all of this spec is carp. I don't think it's pre-challenge, because usually the tribe comes in, stands on a mat, while Jiffy explains the challenge. Then they get in position. To me, it's more likely that the long bench sitters have already been eliminated.

Now here is the challenge area...

I think that Rob and Grant are an early match, we can see Andrea, Rooster, and Steve standing in the background. They have not been eliminated yet.

Note the two benches, and the covered reward food, most likely, in between the benches. Jiffy most likely calls the challenge on the pool deck sidewalk next to the pool...but, notice there is one short bench on the right side, and the bench on the left appears much longer....could eliminated players go to the long bench, while players that move on, wait on the small bench?

Note the orange flag behind Natalie as she sits on the "long" bench next to Steve when he catches the "package"....then look closely at the one where Rob and Grant are competing and we see Steve, Rooster, and Andrea standing, you can see the same orange flag in that picture behind Steve's left shoulder.

Now, if the losers sit on the long bench, could those winners sit on the short bench?
Also note here:

Here is a close up of the short, winners bench. Note that the platform the benches are on is elevated. Also, note that there are 2 posts to the right of the short bench...first, closest to the bench is the flag banner that has Outwit, Outplay, Outlast, then the next post further away has the IN on it....

So, several conclusions...

Speculation: Andrea is clearly sitting on the short bench, and she's located on the far right of it, when Jiffy tosses the "package" over to the losers, Phillip, Steve, Rooster, and Natalie. But, we know that there is plenty of room on the bench to Natalie's left, that we don't see, for others.

So, at the point when Jiffy throws the "package", Andrea is most likely still in it, or is she a loser that is sitting down too?

I think Phillip, Rooster, Steve, and Nat are out. So that leaves, Rob/Grant, Ashley, and Andrea who could still be in it...BUT, we saw Ashley sitting next to Rooster when Phillip was competing...

So, possible winners: Andrea, Rob/Grant

This is all spec...

"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by michel on 04-24-11 at 12:55 PM
If I got this right, we have caps of only 2 match-ups: Phil vs Natalie and Grant vs Rob, right?

If this goes as it should: 4 first round matches, 2 semis and the finals then the cap of Phil, Rooster, Steve and Natalie tells us that the players changed positions: If Phil and Natalie faced off in the first round then they wouldn't be on the same bench because one would be on the loser's side, one on the winner's. If Phil and Natalie were about to face off in the second round then they wouldn't be next to Rooster and Steve because one of Grant or Rob would have to be there, if not both.

All this to say that, if the players changed positions, we can't really use the sitting order to determine the winner.

"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-24-11 at 09:14 PM
Yes, I agree that there are probably 4 pairs to start. Rob v Grant could be the first round. Then, perhaps Phillip v Nat.

Regardless, they are seen in different positions, but they are all on the long bench, which I think could be where the losers go. Just spec. The only one seen on the short bench, so far, is Andrea.

I don't know if Andrea wins this, but I'd bet she is in the finals, perhaps...?

"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by dabo on 04-25-11 at 10:51 AM
If those two matches are first round we can speculate that losers take their places on the bench from center going outward.

Phillip v Natalie, Natalie loses.

Steve v Andrea, Steve loses.

Rob v Grant, loser sits to Natalie's left. Pure spec., Rob loses.

Ralph v Ashley, Ralph loses. Knocking out Zaps is all she cares about anyway.

Grant v Ashley, Ashley loses, sits next to Rob.

Phillip v Andrea, Phillip loses, takes spot on end of bench because Ashley took the coveted spot next to Rob.

Grant v Andrea, Grant tries but eventually loses his center of balance, can't recover quickly enough, Andrea wins.

Or it could be Steve loses the first first-round pairing and sets the seating order in motion. Phillip would sit next to Rob if it were his choice where to sit, so the final round may be Rob v Andrea. Rob losing this immunity to her may just move her up in the target order, or she may be at that spot in the target order anyway.

"Vidcaps - Sports Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-24-11 at 06:50 AM
Only a new Matt sequence.
The PIP promo had the same footage, plus part of the Phillip/Natalie challenge footage. If a longer version airs, I will upload.

VO: Wednesday, on Survivor: a surprise twist at Tribal Council could change the game completely.


















"Vidcaps - 10 seconds Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-24-11 at 06:59 AM
Phillip finds his shorts.

VO: Is Phillip the nuttiest player ever...
Phillip: "Am I good or what, baby!"
VO: ... or is he just playing everyone?
Phillip: "Son, you can't stand the truth!"
VO: New Survivor, CBS, Wednesday.



















"Vidcaps - 20 seconds Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-24-11 at 07:11 AM
VO: Rob is the island Godfather.
Rob: "One man should not have this much power on an island."
VO: Will the other castaways finally wake up and vote him off...
Grant: "Timing is everything in this game."
VO: ... or is this his year to win it all?





























VO: And, is Phillip the nuttiest player ever or just playing everyone?
Phillip: "Son, you can't stand the truth!"
VO: New Survivor, CBS, Wednesday.











"RE: Vidcaps - 20 seconds Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-24-11 at 06:14 PM
Thanks VG!!! Uggh, I hate that Godfather logo they use for Rob -- I think it's creepy .


Does anyone have the capability to blow up this new vidcap? This is the same note posted on the shelter that I had mentioned earlier, but now you can clearly see that there are several paragraphs. Just curious if it's possible to read the words? Seems like a lot of copy -- more than a typical "everyone goes to RI" tree mail. Could this be a note that comes with the mystery package? Or new HII clue?

"RE: Vidcaps - 20 seconds Promo"
Posted by michel on 04-24-11 at 06:36 PM
When they receive a note or a package, they usually aren't allowed to open it until it comes into play, meaning at the next challenge or at TC.

"RE: Vidcaps - 20 seconds Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-25-11 at 10:19 AM
Squid, I wasn't ignoring your original request about the note, but wanted to wait until the promo aired to see if we could get anything workable. It is a note, but the letters are much too blurry to make it legible.

Of note, the footage of that sequence has been flipped.
Full Promo / 20 sec Promo / 10 sec Promo


"RE: Vidcaps - 20 seconds Promo"
Posted by tribephyl on 04-25-11 at 06:37 PM
With some photoshop fidgeting...

"RE: Vidcaps - 20 seconds Promo"
Posted by Krautboy on 04-25-11 at 06:54 PM
LOL...very nice!



Krautboy

"RE: Vidcaps - 20 seconds Promo"
Posted by michel on 04-25-11 at 09:02 PM

I guess rule #4: "No Fafaru or any other sort of dead fish is allowed on the premisses."

"RE: Vidcaps - 20 seconds Promo"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-25-11 at 11:29 PM
Tribe, too funny! I love it.

P.S. VG, no problem. I tried blowing it up too but like you said, it's too blurry. The thing that caught my eye is that I went back to a few prior episodes, and the RI tree mail is typically a lot shorter, but this one looks pretty long so just wondering if it could be a "teaser" for what's in the package.

"I love my Tribe..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-26-11 at 02:03 PM
Have I told you how amazing you are lately? WOW! You have transcribed that note down to the very last punctuation mark... Simply amazing...

"RE: I love my Tribe..."
Posted by CTgirl on 04-26-11 at 02:06 PM
I agree. Tribe is awesome!
"RE: Vidcaps - 20 seconds Promo"
Posted by VolcanicGlass on 04-27-11 at 09:28 AM
No rice clause? ;)
Nicely done!
"Andrea, Jeff and the Necklace?"
Posted by Krautboy on 04-24-11 at 08:27 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-11 AT 08:30 PM (EST)

Andrea and Jeff appear to be standing next to the Immunity Necklace stand after the Immunity challenge...


Here you see the ocean in the background and a large purple “Outwit, Outlast” banner. Notice the relative location of the large tree in the background.



Behind and to the left of Rob we can see a bench at the corner of the pool and a purple “outplay” banner. To the right of Rob the Immunity Necklace on the “cross” shaped holder. The other purple banner is out of the frame off to the right.



Here in this overview we see the small bench, next to it a purple "Outplay" banner, then next to it to the right, the Immunity Necklace stand and further to the right the other “outplay” banner. Notice the tree in the upper right corner of the frame.



Jeff tossing the Mystery Package over to the losers bench. The ocean is behind him and he is standing to the right of a purple “Outwit,Outplay” banner, between the banner and the Immunity Necklace stand. On the other side of the banner is the person with the blonde hair and black headband. Notice the tree behind Jeff...the trunk of the tree out of the frame to the right.


As Blindfreddy illustrates, the blonde hair with black headband is most likely Andrea.


We might speculate that after the challenge Jeff and Andrea walk over to the Immunity Neckalce stand, where Jeff places the necklace around her neck. At that time both Andrea and Jeff would be standing in close proximity to the purple banner which is next to the Immunity Necklace stand, with the ocean behind them. Jeff then pulls out the Mystery Package and tosses it over to the loser’s bench, with instructions to bring it with them to TC.

The previews are edited to make us think Andrea is in trouble and being considered for the boot, only to have her be safe after winning immunity.

Andrea appears to be the best bet to win the Log Rolling Immunity Challenge this week.



Krautboy

"RE: Andrea, Jeff and the Necklace?"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-24-11 at 08:50 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-11 AT 09:09 PM (EST)

I like it!
If Andrea starts winning and nearly winning so much, then she will be toast next time she loses (I predict), unless she finds some numbers.

Some more comments on the challenge. FP. thanks for that on Loser bench (long) and still in it bench (short).

The package gets tossed when the challenge is over, and not before, I feel no doubt about that.

So we see IMO that for the first round of four match-ups, everyone stands while they wait to compete. Then as FloPo analyzed, the winners will go to the short bench and the losers to the long bench.

Because Rob and Grant draw each other for a first round, one of them will be out of the running and there won't be a match of the Titans at the end. If the short bench theory is correct, they are first, because no one is on that bench.

If the line-up is an indication, Steve and Ralph will go against each other, next Andrea with whoever that shoe belongs to, and then the last two -- Ashley, Natalie, Phillip are the other three. Natalie and Phillip may be the only gender-mixed pair.

With the Phillip and Natalie match, we see Ralph and Ashley sitting behind, and I wonder if they are on the short bench. How does that angle look to the rest of you, and the tree in the background?

The thing is, Ashley in semi-finals would likely mean Andrea is not, so could it be that Steve beat Ralph and Ralph and Ashley are on the long bench?

If so, the semi-finals would consist of Steve, Andrea, Natalie or Phillip, Rob or Grant.

Steve could even be the one who just sat down, as the defeated finalist, and that could be why Jeff aims the package at him, although not necessarily so.

I wonder if this is Phillip's best day yet because he finally performed well in a challenge.

"RE: Andrea, Jeff and the Necklace?"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-28-11 at 06:04 AM
I had to go back to the point where I missed the connection.

I remember thinking that maybe Ashley and Ralph were semi-finalists waiting while Phillip and Natalie had their face-off.

This is where I had it ...
Because Rob and Grant draw each other for a first round, one of them will be out of the running and there won't be a match of the Titans at the end. If the short bench theory is correct, they are first, because no one is on that bench.

If the line-up is an indication, Steve and Ralph will go against each other, next Andrea with whoever that shoe belongs to, and then the last two -- Ashley, Natalie, Phillip are the other three. Natalie and Phillip may be the only gender-mixed pair.

With the Phillip and Natalie match, we see Ralph and Ashley sitting behind, and I wonder if they are on the short bench. How does that angle look to the rest of you, and the tree in the background?

The thing is, Ashley in semi-finals would likely mean Andrea is not,

Where I lost it was we had Andrea up front somewhere at the end, so I went with her beating Ashley. As Ashley was sitting by Ralph, then Ralph must have lost to Steve. It all went wrong with the assumption that Andrea won her first round.

But we had the information. We saw that Ralph was sitting between Steve and Phillip later, not next to Ashley. Why would he move? He would move because he competed again after sitting next to Ashley. Actually he competed twice. When he lost the finals, he went and sat next to his buddy Steve. When Ashley lost the semi-finals, she went and sat next to the other girls (IIRC).

The only missing piece was why was Andrea up there (probably eating), if she had not done well in the challenge? I figured the winner chose two to eat (and posted that somewhere here, that Rob was not on the bench because he had gotten chosen). But ... I did not think Grant would choose Andrea over Ashley or Natalie. I hit a wall there.

I wish I had followed the Ralph and Ashley on the short bench idea further, to see where it took me -- to Andrea losing her first round. I am not that good at spatial relationships, so I couldn't tell which bench they were on when viewed behind Phillip.

I hope they give us some good challenge footage this week! And I hope I/we explore all the angles instead of being quick to accept one explanation, because that is how we can get from "almost" to "nailing it."

"RE: Andrea, Jeff and the Necklace?"
Posted by Krautboy on 04-24-11 at 08:56 PM
OK, I just noticed that FloPo had already covered alot of the same ground.

The height of Andrea's hair does look like she is probably sitting on the short bench when Jeff tosses the package. Would she sit down after getting the necklace, to wait while Jeff gets out the Mystery Package and presents it them?

Or is the winner standing off the the right next to the IN stand?

I guess the editing of Andrea in trouble still has me thinking it's misdirection and she must win immunity to foil that plan.


Krautboy

"RE: Andrea, Jeff and the Necklace?"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-25-11 at 04:28 PM
I don't think the winner would sit down. Neither does it seem right for the runner up to sit on the short bench after losing. All the losers should end up in one place. I feel we're missing something.
"RE: Andrea, Jeff and the Necklace?"
Posted by Krautboy on 04-25-11 at 06:47 PM
You're right, it's been bothering me too.

What about the two dome shaped covers next to the short bench? If there is is food reward under there, could the winner sit down on the short bench, and enjoy their food reward while Jeff explains the twist?


Krautboy

"RE: Andrea, Jeff and the Necklace?"
Posted by dabo on 04-25-11 at 08:13 PM
Visits from loved ones have sometimes been preceded by letters/vids from home.
"RE: Andrea, Jeff and the Necklace?"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-25-11 at 09:11 PM
Perhaps a nice opportunity for a product placement?....ie Sprint, major sponsor this season. Sooooo maybe one of their new phones showing videos from home?
"RE: Andrea, Jeff and the Necklace?"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-25-11 at 11:22 PM
The height of Andrea's hair does look like she is probably sitting on the short bench when Jeff tosses the package.

Hey guys, I'm not great at figuring out perspective, so just want to take another look at this issue.


From this vidcap we can see the top of Andrea's hair is even with the "L" and the "A" in "Outplay" on the flag.


From this vidcap, we can see Rob's arm hitting the same section of "Outplay" on the flag. I realize the shots are taken from different angles, but if Andrea was sitting way over on the bench, would we even see her hair? Seems too far away.

"RE: Andrea, Jeff and the Necklace?"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 04-25-11 at 11:34 PM
Absolutely cannot compare with different perspectives like this -- for example, using a wide-angle lens, you'd have Rob appearing to be larger than the gap between the log and the far dock where the "Outplay" pole is. They wouldn't have the log that close to the dock where someone could conceivably fall over sideways to bang his head on. The log is connected to the dock at the background left side and it is higher than the far dock.
"Zaba Doo Da Hey!"
Posted by dabo on 04-25-11 at 08:02 PM
So...






Who's turn was it to babysit Phillip?

"RE: Zaba Doo Da Hey!"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-25-11 at 11:10 PM
Ha, isn't Andrea his buddy??
"RE: Zaba Doo Da Hey!"
Posted by dabo on 04-27-11 at 12:22 PM
Maybe. But bigfoot is napping behind the Zaps on guard duty. Rob? Grant? Ashley?
"RE: Episode 11 Vidcaps"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-25-11 at 11:05 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-25-11 AT 11:09 PM (EST)

CBS has posted a Log Jam challenge preview. Not much helpful info, other than each round/matchup is best 2 of 3 -- so everyone should be pretty wet by the end.

Here's the link:
http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor/video/?pid=O4uoHGgDVEBLpPWcrLEIRN2WhE8HVUWb&nrd=1

"The Log Roll..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-26-11 at 08:43 AM
Here is the challenge video, the log roll, located at the CBS Survivor web site. I noted that they said that it would be the best 2 out of 3 in the heats. So, when it appears that Nat and Rob lose that is only one of the best 2 out of 3....

"RE: The Log Roll..."
Posted by Corvis on 04-26-11 at 09:30 AM
I wonder if they'll actually show all of the heats, though. That would take a long time. I bet they just show the deciding one.
"New vidcap"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-27-11 at 08:20 AM
Here is a new vidcap posted at CBS.com. Most likely this is a shot as the daws line up at the challenge and see what's under the covered dish? Why all of the focus on Phillip....just par usual? Note that Nat comes with her hair on top of her head...

These are pretty strong reactions, do you think there could be letters from home involved? Along with something to eat?

"RE: New vidcap"
Posted by Corvis on 04-27-11 at 09:03 AM
"These are pretty strong reactions, do you think there could be letters from home involved?"

I do.

"RE: New vidcap"
Posted by dabo on 04-27-11 at 10:33 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-27-11 AT 10:33 AM (EST)

If letters from home are involved as reward, no one would fault Rob for playing the Amber's pregnant card. Almost as good as the Gervase is now a daddy card.

Phone home has to be involved.

"RE: New vidcap"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-27-11 at 12:18 PM
Yep. And you'd probably want to be sitting down watching your video from home on your Sprint phone while JP tends to business tossing things willy nilly....or maybe just to willy or nilly.
"RE: New vidcap"
Posted by SquidProQuo on 04-27-11 at 02:56 PM
Agreed.

Also, sometimes the winner has to choose whether they'd forgo their message from home so everyone else can have theirs. That can be a dramatic moment.

"RE: New vidcap"
Posted by parathor on 04-27-11 at 03:16 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-27-11 AT 03:17 PM (EST)

These don't look like "letters-from-loved-ones" reactions to me, though, they look like "oh, I love pizza/beer/cookies/hamburgers so much!" reactions instead. If Nat's eyebrows were more furrowed and pointed upwards, and Phillips eyes were more buggy, then maybe. I suppose this could be after they have those facial expressions, but I think it's just food.

Plus, isn't there a family-member visit that happens next week, with Andrea's dad and someone-not-Amber for Rob? I don't think they'd do two of these family reconnections, would they? (or was that a fake spoiler?)

I'd love for it to be letters from home though. That adds drama, especially if they do the "forgo their message so everyone else can have theirs." Good times.

"RE: New vidcap"
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-27-11 at 03:34 PM
they haven't done letters from home regularly for a long time, not since Sprint became a major sponsor, and the videos have become part of the family visit.

The F8 RC is IMHO too early and there is no hype for love from home.
I expect food is under the dishes.

"RE: New vidcap"
Posted by Blind Freddy on 04-27-11 at 03:51 PM
Ok doing some gameday last minute thinking here...and realizing that the size and shape of the 'mystery package' resembles a package of letters...

Maybe....they do the best of all the worlds...
Food plus Sprint phone video for the IC winner...(and nothing for the losers)
then...
JP tosses the package which contains 'letters from home' and just says "Bring it to TC" to get them thinking there's a twist(which there likely is). But the 'unexpected' part is the package isn't just about the second boot but also 'letters' for the rest(except for votee #1 possibly which JP throws into the fire as emotional toxic waste).

So the win-win-win for SEG/CBS is that the IC winner gets the best Reward(video)and SEG gets tear-time, Sprint gets their product placement and CBS their payday, the rest of the cast get letters and tear-time.

So the end result is that SEG/CBS pimp out the cast for maximized tear-time and the ratings soar.

That's what I would do if I were Exec Producer JP keeps asking on his blogsite for freebie suggestions to make the show better. Hereya go buddy, but show me the money!