I think that Matt does return to OMEs because the other tribe always presented themselves to him during the dual as being 'bad' or 'nasty' and I don't think that Matt wants to be with those kind of people.

I think that Rob goes to the kids under his wing and says...'hey you guys know, no one has the idol, so we can't tell the Zaps that...lets make them believe that one of us have it...and Phillip making a big move, volunteers as a idol beholder...so, the word gets out...Rob still plays his at TC, because he has to, and Phillip gets voted out, because they split the votes...

That wouldn't be very nice, but I could see Rob laughing about it at TC...granted, we have to remember that all of this discussion has to happen BEFORE the vote. I don't know...just a thought... ;P

I just don't see Rob doing that this early, because then the target will be on his back next time. Either he comes clean with his tribe or he doesn't, he can't reveal that he has it at TC.

I agree. Seems like Rob's best move is to not play the HII yet. It's too soon and he's going to need it down the road. But he'd have to really trust Matt/Andrea and be sure that he convinced the Zaps to go for Phillip if he's going to hold it this TC.

If he must play it, it's better if his own alliance is not surprised....but then again, they all appear to be his groupies and listen to whatever he says. I'm still waiting for the hero worship to end and the game to begin for some of them.

Rob has studied the game and he must remember how Yul solidified the Aitu 4 by showing Sundra and Ozzy that he had the idol immediately after the merge. At that time, we saw that Ozzy was considering flipping to Nate and we heard that Candice was working on flipping Sundra.

Even if Yul was facing a majority of Raros while Rob has the numbers, I could see Rob telling the ones he trusts that he has the idol and maybe even using it to scare those he doesn't trust (Matt, Andrea and Phillip).

VO: "Wednesday,..."






VO: "...all the castaways are going to Redemption Island..."




VO: "and what happens there will surprise..."




JP: "Last person standing goes back in the game."



VO: "and shock you."

JP: "We are merged."




VO: "Now the scrambling begins."
Mike: "This is where I gotta go for broke."



Rob: "He's playing both sides."

Steve: "The division between us..."

Andrea: "I trusted Rob once before."

Phillip: This is a whole new game now."


VO: "One more thing."

JP: Redemption Island starts again.

Crowd: *groans*

A huge thank you, Survivor Phoenix.

I just realized there are only 4 women to 8 men -- counting Matt and not Sarita. Julie is like one of the guys. Rob's Zombies are the only girls left. No fear that the women can gang up so they'll probably slip by.

So they are building a new shelter!!
At completely a newspot? or are they jsut making another shelter to make more rooms?

and about the quotes

VO : and what happens there will surprise
JP : Last person standing goes back in the game
VO : and shock you
JP : We are merged

So Surprise = returnee, shock = merge ? I really hope that it's not so lame as it layout!!!

Woogie, on the original SmokingGun call sheets there was a new location name for the merge site. So yes, it appears they don't go back to either of the tribe's camp for the merge and have to build a new shelter at a new location.

Thanks tribe.

As also noted by Heliox in Spoilers at Sucks...

And some traditional merge shots...

Thanks for posting Tribe and VG!

There are a couple of things that I notice. First of all this promo is very choppy, with old footage mixed in with new footage. For example, the shots of Ometepe walking into the RI area, as a tribe, is old footage. They are wearing completely different clothing, and not carrying their chairs and pillows...

Here they are walking in:

And, here they are sitting at the challenge...

This picture is most likely when Andrea and Ashley FIRST went to RI to witness the first duel...note different clothing and necklace, than in the RI Merge pics...also, they are seated differently.

Also, not that this means anything, but I had to point it out...Phillip going up in flames...

So, lots of boot decoys this week...

I doubt that Andrea will be the first post merge boot. I think Rob is misdirection. So that leaves Mike, Steve, and Phillip. I hate to say it, but Phillip could be misdirection here as well....

FloPo, just to piggyback on your points, note that Andrea's hair is down in all of the shots from this week's RI duel

Meanwhile, her hair is up and braided in this RI shot that follows Jeff's announcement that the RI duel winner comes back into the game. As you noted, this must be an old shot from a previous duel. It makes sense that CBS would want to heighten the drama to focus on Andrea now that Matt's coming back. This manipulation, plus the Andrea confessional about Rob, says to me that Andrea's story is going to be important post-merge.

Re possible boots: I agree FloPo, I think Phillip is misdirection. Mike is the most obvious target for Ome, especially given the way he roughed it up with Grant at that one challenge. Other than Julie, he's the main physical threat on the Zaps, and I wouldn't be surprised if Julie wins the merge challenge from the women. Steve is a good alt boot given that he's somewhat the perceived leader of the Zaps (but not much of a physical threat).

The thing that is the most interesting to me, though, are the reaction shots after Jeff announces that RI will continue:

Rob and Natalie sure look nervous in these shots. Why are they the 2 chosen as reaction shots for Jeff's announcement that RI continues? Very interesting.

The other interesting thing about this photo is Mike is behind her. Not sure what it means, but it definitely isn't taking place while the two tribes are still divided and watching the duel.

In the Ometepe tribal shot when Jeff announces the merge, Andrea and Natalie are smiling already as the announcement is made. Ashley and Phillip get very happy right away. Rob hardly reacts, maybe starts to smile. Grant shifts his position but maintains a poker face.

LAST EDITED ON 04-02-11 AT 02:21 PM (EST)

With so many decoys, we could be building up to a double boot at TC. To reload RI after letting Matt back onto the island, maybe, and not have to skip another buff burning next week?

In that last picture of Nat holding her head, who is that behind her? Brown and plaid shirts? That doesn't fit with any of the walk-in shots, even the out of sequence shots.

LAST EDITED ON 04-02-11 AT 02:46 PM (EST)

That's Andrea's plaid shirt. You can see it in the shot where all of Ome is watching the duel. ETA: The brown shirt is Mike's, so this shot must be from after the merge. Maybe when they're all lined up before the start of the IC?

Re double boot: Everyone was thinking it would be double boot at the merge, but they usually hype it in advance and they haven't, so it's a question mark.

Re the Rob and Natalie "nervous" shots after Jeff announces that RI will continue: I was thinking more along the lines of long-term implications, not for this particular episode, since sometimes the merge episode and promos set up the scenario for the rest of the season. The impression I get (esp. when watching the promo clip) is that RI will spell bad news and will impact the game for Rob and/or Natalie. But I may be wrong -- don't want to read too much into these reaction shots.

While I was reviewing all of the old vidcap threads for the "hand" shots, I stumbled across something interesting...

Here is Andrea in episode 3, stating in a confessional: I'm so pissed about what they did. This was in response to the Matt boot. Note her clothing, hair and location...

Now, here is the vidcap in this episode's promo, stating, I trusted Rob once before:

Clearly, all of this was shot and recorded back in episode 3. So, it proves that this shot of Andrea is old, and just used to hype that Andrea is not with Rob, when in actuality, I believe she just may be....

LAST EDITED ON 04-03-11 AT 02:09 PM (EST)

This might be a classic case of 'alliances revealed do not succeed' -- Rob and Andrea could end up being an winning 'alliance' (however loosely you want to use that term - "combo" may be a more appropriate term for these two), while the revealed teamings of Rob-Grant, Rob-Natalie, Natalie-Ashley and to a lesser degree, Rob-Ashley do not make it to the final two in this scenario.

I'm with you, Pepe....when CBS is going to such lengths to hype something than I think most likely what they are revealing is far from the truth...so, does it follow if she's not against him, than she must be with him?

It may also be that this is just part of the "Previously on..." segment. Even though viewers were reminded of the Andrea-Matt connection during the Matt-Krista duel, the casual viewer may still need help connecting the dots.

Yay, finally a challenge shot. Thanks VG!

So it does look like the women and men are divided -- probably separate immunities as we've spec'd.

From the guys, looks like Phillip is already having trouble. And can't imagine Steve, Rooster or David doing well in something like this. Yoga people usually have great balance and do well in endurance type challenges, so I'd guess Grant would do well. (Plus he has the arm strength.) Interesting that we don't see Matt, so not sure if he's given an exemption or not. But he could be out of camera range to the right of Rob.

From the gals, Natalie looks pretty solid (of course this might be off the beginning). She's a dancer and could do well on the balance part, but on the other hand, her arm strength is weak. Interesting that we don't see Julie or Andrea, but I would think that both of them would do well on this too and would feel compelled to win, whereas the Spa Girls have been edited to be the types who would be tempted by food or feel cocky and give up.

Thanks VG! *smooches* you are so quick with this stuff.

Squid, I'm sure they wouldn't show Matt anyway, because that gives away the duel.

I think Natalie looks very strong. This challenge could be one of the real short ones like last season. This could be the beginning and Phillip already crumbling.

Moving on the "log" could come into play before arm strength really becomes a factor, you know?

I would imagine that Julie and Andrea are out of frame in the foreground.

Rob has a good sense of balance, or did nine years ago in Marquesas when he nearly beat out Kathy in the merge balance challenge in the water.

Speaking of which, Rob's first game ended at the merge. I bet merges make him nervous.

There are two more balls on each of their pillars, so presumably this works like the stacking challenges do in that every so often they have to add another degree of difficulty. It's going to be tough to reach over and get another ball, and then if they make it, they end up balancing three balls.

The more balls, the more total weight and likelihood to overcome inertia and start rolling off?

aha!
A food server challenge! (with balls)
Too bad Stephanie wasn't still in the game, she'd kick ##### in this challenge.

Um...speaking from experience the difficulty will come from all directions. Overcompensation will be their undoing.
My guess is that the women will do better overall.
I expect Phillip, Dave, Rooster and Rob to be out early.

Dave could have been a waiter on his way through school ...
What, not enough people skills?

I don't why I didn't see that, tribe, I carried trays for a living throughout my 20's.
I didn't have to stand on uneven footing at the same time though. You are right about the over-compensation.

Still think yoga teacher and dancer have a good shot, even pageant girl, and I'm not so pessimistic about Rob's ability. I'm thinking that those who need it more will try harder, and that's why I'm dubious about Natalie. She may feel safe and in need of lounging. Grant would try hard because he's Grant and to keep it from a Zapatera. His starting position doesn't look great though.

Someone somewhere mentioned food temptations. I don't think Jeff will be offering any. It's been a long time since he did that at the marge. Later on, yes.

Rob --> ice --> hockey --> does he still have it?

Tough competition, I don't expect him to win, and he may not care with the HII in his pocket (though he'd like to keep it there I'm sure); but if he still has it he may be in it awhile.

You know this is going to be an incredibly hard challenge. I don't think it will last too long. Even someone next to you getting out, could be enough to distract you from the task at hand. If they even talk while performing the challenge, they could be out. I would bet that one of the ones shown in the picture below is indeed the winner...but, I don't think it will be Phillip, that's for sure.

No doubt about it, in this one still shot of the challenge, it sure looks like Natalie is the most stable. This challenge would favor the balance of a gymnast. I think it will be harder for the taller men...Steve...

Grant has a real chance, as the yoga instructor, and as I said, I don't think it will last too long, so perhaps his leaning over a bit will not come into account.

New images from PIP.

GREAT shots here, VG! Thanks for uploading and posting here!

Looks like the guys are having a nice bonding time with enlarging and fortifying the Zapatera shelter. It's going to be quite grand. Looks like Rob has moved Rooster over to take the spot light. He's at the center of orchestrating the building project.

I found these shots intriguing....

Is someone just bonding with Rob? From the look on his face I think a deal has been struck...now if we could just figure out whose hand that is...

Then, the shot of the challenge. I agree, Phillip is close to out, right here...

From the shot above, clearly, Natalie looks in the finest form. I think this will favor the smaller, shorter girls...lower center of gravity. Natalie is a professional dancer and should shine at this. Grant, as the yoga instructor should also shine....yoga builds great balance and a very strong core, but, frankly, Grant doesn't look so good here, his center of gravity is off, he's leaning forward. But, I'm sure he will figure this out...

I would definitely favor Rob for this. He won most balance competitions in the past. He was a construction worker that worked on high structures, he should be good. Mike, as an Iraqi War hero will most likely be good at this as well. He's used to carrying 60 pound packs on his back and enduring for long periods of time...he's had this kind of training for years.

Julie is a weight lifter and is also a fire-fighter. She is also used to working in extreme conditions with large heavy gear as well, I would not discount her either. This should be a great challenge, and there are many who could pull it out. Phillip will be first out, then David....shown below with 2 weights on his tray...and he looks like he's about to be out.

Now off to find some Zap hands for comparison....argh!

Super analysis, FloPo! Thanks, VG, terrific new shots!

The proffered arm looks paler than Rob's, but the inside of the arm isn't typically as tan. A male arm, we might think a Zap -- what about Matt though? We know that Matt likes to shake hands, too much, and as CBS doesn't want to show us Matt, that would explain why we don't see who it is.

I mean, they could show us Rob shaking with Mike, David, anyone, and it doesn't tell us how sincere it might be, so why show only the arm?

Totally agree that Rob could do this, from what we've seen of him other seasons.
Everything you mentioned makes sense, although standing on the base could challenge the heavier frames.

At MESS it was mentioned that pageants involve standing and balance on high heels, so Ashley could do well ... don't like her position as much as Natalie's though.

I agree with tribe that if you wait tables it becomes very easy to balance a tray. You do it all shift, second nature to adjust it the right amount if things start to slide. The tray isn't heavy. The trick is to hold it level.

Add Steve to the list of early outs, and I think Matt could kill this one if his foot is better. We don't know he's there at all, but we shouldn't discount him.

Young white male of medium strength.

75%: Mike, Matt (Matt has lighter skin than Mike)
50%: David (he has smaller hands, not sure on muscles)
25%: Grant (he's got bigger hands & muscles)

Which would be the more likely handshake? I'd guess you're right, probably Matt.

Thanks for these VG.
I like your views, FP and OFG. I was going to say a waiter/waitress should do well in this but I see it's been mentioned. Natalie is using the "Courtney Yates-dragon-riding" technique! She looking straight ahead and has great balance so I'd favor her.

I'm surprised no one has mentioned this cap:

Sarita looks very happy here so we can't give it to Matt without considering the possibility. In HvV, the women dominated the chimney-sweep challenge, only JT being able to stay up a long time. It's probably the worst challenge for Matt yet.

That is a flipped image of Sarita walking into Redemption Arena.

Do they flip it so that it looks like it couldn't be the same time?

The thing is, it's not easy to change the side where your hair parts. The natural part is taken into account when the hair is cut, it's that strong a tendency for the hair to fall that way. In order to change it, Sarita would likely need a shampoo, a blow-dryer, and a styling product with strong hold -- but she doesn't even have a comb or brush.

The biggest clue that Matt is coming back into the game (and thus wins this final duel before merge) is that Jeff said "we" (the public) were going to "love this twist or he would vote himself out of Survivor."

This clue from Jeff is why I didn't buy the Stephanie hype last week. Matt is being edited as the "Golden Boy" and I'm sure the general public loves him, feels he was booted prematurely & will love him coming back into the game. Heck, I'm not that keen on people who "pray" for help on reality/game shows & I LOVE Matt & want to see him come back into the game.

With that in mind, I am extremely confident that no way does Sarita -- someone who has been shown as weak -- defeat Matt right before he would come back in the game. If that were to happen, there is no way the general public would "love" the twist. Matt is winning the duel -- book it.

Yes, Matt is coming back but I consider Jeff as a used car salesman trying to get us to buy a lemon so I don't care what he says outside of 8-9 PM on Wednesday. Any twist is great from his perspective, even the F3.

>Yes, Matt is coming back but
>I consider Jeff as a
>used car salesman trying to
>get us to buy a
>lemon so I don't care
>what he says outside of
>8-9 PM on Wednesday. Any
>twist is great from his
>perspective, even the F3.

Touche, michel, touche. You are right about Jeff. I probably should have written that the editing has so obviously been geared to make us become "invested" in Matt, while we really don't know diddly about Sarita other than she's "weak," that there is no way Sarita is winning the duel, or the viewing public would be outraged at the result.

LAST EDITED ON 04-03-11 AT 04:56 PM (EST)

Just for fun...let's see if we can figure out whose hand Rob is shaking....

Here is what we have:

The likely suspects, I am posting the original pic on top of each set for comparison:

1. David:

I discount David, because his thumb is too narrow on the end...look at his thumb here and compare...

2. Mike:

I think that Mike's thumb tips look more narrow as well, compare the above thumbs to the below shot...

3. Steve: Note, that Steve wears a bracelet....seen on his right, but later seen on his left...

Look at Steve's palm in the above shot, and compare to this...



Note that Steve has a huge left thumb knuckle...



Note that Steve's bracelet is now on his left wrist...

4. Rooster: Note, that Rooster wears that little blue silly band on his RIGHT wrist...does this discount his hand?

5. Grant:

To me, it does appear that Grant has a longer nail on his right thumb...



Note Grant's wider finger tips...



ETA: Did I really just notice that Grant is wearing toe nail polish???

6. Last, but not least, Matt:

After all of this, I am concluding that the hand Rob is shaking is NOT David, Mike, Rooster, and probably not Steve's. I am leaning against Steve as well, his fingers are more slender at the tips.

I think the hand that Rob is shaking is either Grant's or Matt's...They both have wider finger tips...fwiw. In fact, I would NOT be surprised at all if this is a shot of Rob shaking MATT's hand!

Interesting analysis, FP, as usual.

Just from the size of the hand, I'd give it to Steve. Also the upward crook of the last part of the thumb in the hand shaking Rob's is indicative of a hand that has had rough play, as an NFL linebacker's would have had. Grant also undoubtedly suffered broken fingers as a receiver, but I agree that that hand doesn't seem to be Grant's hand.

Aside from the pic, however, Matt would seem to be the more likely, just from the circumstances. His arrival (if he does indeed beat Sarita) would mean that he would have to deal with the thing between him and Rob, and this could very well be it.

Also, why are we discounting Julie? She has a pretty manly forearm, and her hands are largish. Of course it's hard to imagine a deal sealing handshake between Julie and Rob as this seems to be. Same with Steve and Rob, actually.

Hiya King!

Also the upward crook of the last part of the thumb in the hand shaking Rob's is indicative of a hand that has had rough play, as an NFL linebacker's would have had.

I don't know, look at the upward crook of Matt's thumbs...

Also, I think that Matt played college ball as well...Regarding Julie, well, no matter how muscular her figure is, she's still a female...I'll check her hands...

I don't know, I think she still has girl hands...

LAST EDITED ON 04-03-11 AT 12:02 PM (EST)

It's probably Matt.

But I have to say, that hand is swallowing up Rob's. Are Matt's that much bigger? There are a few pictures of Julie resting her head in her hand where you can see that her hands are not petite.

Wow FP, what a lot of work! Thanks!

I think it's Matt too. It would make sense that Matt and Rob bury the hatchet (for at least an episode or two until Matt can make a move).

A Rob/Matt deal would also tie in with this week's clues.

That was an incredible study in hands and thumbs, FlowerPower. Wow. I think it's Matt.

I suggested Matt (back in post 87), because there is no reason to show any other handshake with a detached arm, other than that it's the person who wins the Duel and they don't want to give away the outcome.

You might say it is to hide with whom Rob shakes on a deal. To which I say, it's Boston Rob. It doesn't mean squat if he shakes your hand. He'll still cut your throat. So they could show him shaking anyone's hand without giving away the true alignments of the episode. So it's Matt.

I posted that at MESS last night, but I forgot to add it on here. And as I said above, Matt got booted for shaking the hand of the enemy, so it's a nice irony that he's shaking with Rob.

Excellent point about Matt's prior handshake with the enemy. Love the irony!

OFG...after I had done the research on the hands, I came back and saw your post, and thought to myself....man, I wish I had just read that instead of all that! Ha! Oh well, at least all of the research supports your hypothesis.

I love your comment on the end...Matt got booted for shaking the hand of the enemy, so it's a nice irony that he's shaking with Rob...! Great stuff!

Your hand comparison goes down in the history of doing vidcap research. I was like, who gave her the speed?

I'm so inept at comparing stuff like that, I just read it in awe.

Great eye, VG!! So that confirms Matt is back.

Personally, I can't wait to see Rooster, Rob and Phillip building a shelter together. Rob should have some hilarious commentary this week.

lol
Wow. Guess it was just too difficult to hide him for a week.

Well that settles it. Good eyes, VG!

BWAHAHA! Great catch VG!

Something else which was spotted by AstroRocks at MeSS:

GREAT catch, VG! You are AMAZING! Well, just proves what we here at Blows have known all along, thanks to the editing. WELL DONE!

I was just watching the actual PIP promo clip and was wondering what is in the background on the challenge shot? Looks like it could be picnic tables, although I'm not sure -- could also be a fence/blockade. If it is tables, could there be a food/reward component? They wouldn't do the challenge immediately before or after the merge feast, would they? I suppose they could have just left the tables there after the merge feast. There doesn't appear to be pizza or drinks or anything laid out on the tables.

Also, in the latest PIP vidcaps, it ends on a "blurry" man, who I think by the color of the shirt and red plate color must be David. Interesting that it's the only individual challenge competitor we're given. Any significance? Or just a random shot?

The other thing that catches my eye on this shot is that there appears to be at least 2 and maybe more balls on his plate, vs. the other challenge shot where everyone only has 1.

Hi Squid! Those could be tables? They usually merge and go right to the feast...fwiw. I suppose it could be the feast area, the tables used already and now stacked to the side? Could they be lined up there so that the losers of this challenge have a place to go sit on the bench? Could they be bleacher seating, like they have used in the past?

Regarding David, see my post #86!

They have been doing the challenge of the day they go to TC, and likely will again this time. Because they have to set up a new camp, I expect they give them a day after the duel to do that.

They should go from the arena to the new camp and find their feast, so that ought to be over and done for at least a day by the time of this challenge.

Maybe the tables are just there for something else.

from RI preview clip
http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor/video/?pid=w8Jl_LUN1ck4_mNio1in2MPiymi4_66D

Ow, that's the part of the foot that takes the pressure in this challenge. Good for Matt for sticking it out.

Ow is the word. This injury could be very annoying because of the location. But if he keeps it clean and attended to it shouldn't get infected. No cause for a medical evacuation in the short term. Seven or eight days down the road if he has a pronounced limp, we'll just have to keep an eye on it.