Assuming the Zaps lose the IC, I think Stephanie gets voted off due to her mouth. Kristina can't beat Matt in most kinds of challenges they do on Survivor, so I think odds favor him taking her out.

A couple of late developments. We finally have a peak at the duel challenge, "Cube Crisis."

A puzzle challenge, so Matt's physical advantages count for not little. Kristina, a mom, old hand at playing with blocks, also exhibited good puzzle logic skills in finding the HII without a clue, so I'm thinking this duel tips in her favor.

Also, Kristina and Phillip were the ones from Ometepe who witnessed Russell's defeat and in whom the "Russell seeds" were planted, so Kristina surviving at RI instead of being knocked out of the game would be a bit of encouragement to Stephanie and Krista in their Wolfpack campaign.

Krista pops up briefly in the newer version of the short promo

http://www.youtube.com/user/SPsurvivorvideos#p/a/u/2/oeY_DMpnW2o

"Game time." Wolfpack campaigns are suicidal terrorism in the form of keeping up the harrassment until you get hunted down and put down. Since the Zap6 can only get rid of one at a time they opt to keep Stephanie who is more valuable in challenges, good-bye Krista. And the cub probably won't stand a chance next week against the mama cougar.

This is post #12, vote tally #1, compiling 11 previous posts (9 vote and 2 revote); 9 boot votes and 9 elimination votes.

Elimination
Kristina: 7
Matthew: 2

Boot
Krista: 3
Stephanie: 3
David: 1
Phillip: 1
Sarita: 1
all others UTR

The Cube challenge duel appears to level the playing field for Kristina, and the vidcaps appear to show JP standing next to Kristina when he signals victory. Matt’s journey appears to come to an end…

From this weeks promos we can conclude that Rob finds a second clue and hides it. The consensus is that where there’s a clue there’s a challenge victory, sending Zapatera back to TC for the second time.

Stephanie and Krista are apparently still vulnerable and feel like they have nothing to lose by trying to “create havoc and chaos”.

The previews show Sarita stressed and “freaking out”, but it is still the Zap 6 together on the beach discussing the situation. Russell told us Mike and Steve are an alliance, Julie and Ralph appear to be tight, Ralph has an idol, and while David and Sarita may feel like they are on the outside of the Zap 6, they still have two “pawns” to sacrifice before they should have to worry.

As the Zapatera six get closer to the merge, there is no reason to keep the two most likely to flip to Ometepe. While the editing and misdirection may have us consider otherwise, the status quo is the best course and there’s no reason to “freak out”. Krista or Stephanie should be voted out.

Krista’s character has not yet been developed, while Stephanie has been visible and vocal. In the previews she is shown making her case to stay when she says, “hopefully they can see that I’m a good competitor”.

I think the Zap 6 will see Stephanie as an ugly reminder of Russell and be happy to get rid her. With her gone Krista will fall into line and order will be restored.

I think Krista brief showing up in a confessional in the last episode could point to her getting the boot this episode. It makes sense with tribal dynamics.

I am going with the latest preview to go with Matt losing. While I had been in the Matt returns to the game camp, I could also see his story being about defeating evil with the help of his god. He didn't talk about his god getting him back in the game, just beating Russell.

LAST EDITED ON 03-16-11 AT 10:18 AM (EST)

This week, I think this misdirection clue may lead to the boot story...

TWO TRIBEMATES USE THE DUEL AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO SHARE VALUABLE INFORMATION WITH THE OPPOSING TRIBE ...

At least one of the harem girls will get to go to the duel. Who ever gets to go with them, will promise them that they will not tell the tribe what they did at the duel...(sharing valuable information)

We get the PIP, with "Double-crossing strikes on Survivor", with a picture of David striking...

So, the player that goes with one of the harem girls to the RI duel will "double-cross" them and go back on their word, telling the tribe what happened. Sarita is stress out, and David tells her, "don't freak out". The harem girl will be toast. I think it's Krista that will go because, last week in confessionals Stephanie basically said that without Russell they are stuck with all these goobers, and it won't be any fun anymore, but Krista said, "One of us is going to go home unless we find the idol." Well, we know they didn't find the idol, so I suspect Krista will be going home.

One could argue, however, that Stephanie called the challenge and they lost, which negates her strategy for staying...."I can convince them that I am good in challenges". So, one way or the other, one of them is gone.

As for the RI duel: I am in the camp that Andrea and Matt may get a reunion, it could definitely be at RI, and not at camp, however. So I am voting for Kristina to lose. This could be close as they are both smart people...she's in law school, he wants to go to med school. I can't tell which one is spatially superior...So, the RI winner for me is determined by the editing alone.

because it sounds like Victor, Victoria.

Krista is almost invisible and won't be missed. I think Matt has run his storyline and it is time for someone else to take over.

One of Russell’s harem will go, it could be either of them. I really can’t decide if Krista’s one confessional signaled an imminent departure or the beginning of a slightly longer character development. So I'll just guess Stephanie because she was the alternate target to Russell, and unless Krista gives The 6 a compelling reason to switch, I’d expect them to stick with her.

Matt has been getting a great edit, but it’s hard to determine what that means for the RI contestants -- as others have pointed out, his vanquishing of RussHole could have been his high point. I am going to guess that he loses this week, because BRob has not seemed overly anxious about Matt coming back to the game. If Matt were to keep sticking around I think we’d have heard BRob worrying about that possibility more.

Vote Tally #2, Post 19
-- comprising 15 votes in both categories, plus two revote posts and one Vote Tally:

RI Elimination:
Kristina – 9
Matt – 6

TC Boot:
Krista – 7
Stephanie – 5
Sarita – 1
David – 1
Phillip – 1

Combo vote totals:
XKristina – Krista 4
XKristina – Stephanie 3
XMatt – Krista 3
XMatt – Stephanie 2
XKristina – Sarita 1
XKristina – David 1
XMatt – Phillip 1

Excellent work this week in the various analysis threads.

I'm thinking that Ometepe will win the RC/IC based on my spec that their early lead builds enough to overcome any advantage the Zaps might gain from Dave's puzzle solving skills. And there is the possibility that the Zaps will blame Steph, as the caller, for the loss. See next step.

I considered the recent CBS PR pic of Krista showing her vulnerable but ultimately chose Steph b/c she has: the Facetime, the threat factor, the mouth and as I speced above she might be the reason the Zaps lose the chal. I think both tribes(especially the inexperienced/invisi-leader Zaps) are expecting a Swap or Merge soon. And while both Krista and Steph might be prone to flipping...Steph is very vocal about where she stands which enhances her threat status into the red zone.

As far as the RI duel. I had been in the Matt cruises column but the CBS PR pics showing the chal to be a 3D Puzzle make me think that Kristina has a real shot at this. Matt's redemption has already been achieved with the victory over Russ and any continuation of it can be easily reincarnated thru Andrea when and if she makes the RI trip.

So that's my thinking this week. Great job all and good luck w/your picks.

I can see why people are looking at Krista, but to me if it's simply a matter of choosing between Krista and Stephanie, I can't see why the tribe would keep Stephanie over Krista if all things were equal. Stephanie has shown she's got a sharp tongue and will do whatever it takes to keep herself in the game. Do they really want to keep somebody around who can be a crap-disturber in camp over someone who hasn't shown much in the way of game strategy?

So I'm going with what seems to be the simplest option: Stephanie.

Alternate boot: David - his editing of late and his apparent position on the Zap totem pole doesn't look good for him.

Vote Tally #3, Post 23 (at 6:00 pm EST, maybe we will get a few more voters before airtime)

-- comprising 17 votes in both categories, plus two revote posts, one vote change, and two Vote Tallies:

RI Elimination:
Kristina – 10
Matt – 7

TC Boot:
Stephanie – 8
Krista – 6
Sarita – 1
David – 1
Phillip – 1

Combo vote totals:
XKristina – Stephanie 5
XKristina – Krista 3
XMatt – Krista 3
XMatt – Stephanie 3
XKristina – Sarita 1
XKristina – David 1
XMatt – Phillip 1

YAY, BR! Thank you. By golly you are a better tallyman than me. Want the job permanent?

Been busy today, daughter wound up having her wisdom teeth out this afternoon, they were just too big for her jaws. She came home just the right amount of doped up to really enjoy "Alice In Wonderland" so I got her some ice cream and turned on the show. Up and down ever after seeing to her, kids these days I tell ya.

LAST EDITED ON 03-17-11 AT 12:24 PM (EST)

No I don't want it "permanent" in an official sense, but I'll be happy to do the tallies occasionally.

Back when we had a lot more voters, I seem to remember that anyone would just step in and post a new tally when the thread had accumulated a bunch more votes -- no one had to assume responsibility for the whole thread. We could revert to that method if you like.

ETA: Congratulations to FloPo, Belle Book, and Travel Queen, who picked both of last night's casualties correctly (and also to tribephyl who did so in the SOTS).

Yes, that's how it works, anyone can do a vote tally, just step up and do it when you thik it should be done. (A lot of Blows just works that way, really.) The way things are going this season we should revive the tradition of having tallies every week.

I agree, in the absence of source spoilers the votes will get spread around more, and the RI elimination adds another variable. It will be fun to see how it all adds up each week.

Congrats to this week's correct pickers. And a beer to cry in for my fellow double missers: BR and KB. I was following you guys...I'm blind for pete's sake...lol

time to regroup, redouble...score

Good job SBlows!

BF, I was hoping no one would notice that I was a "double-misser", but you had to go and point it out!?

Freddy: You followed the wrong people this week...blind leading the Blind Freddy, so to speak.

Regardless, I just wanted to add that it is nice having you posting and spoiling with us here this season. You are a great addition to a nice group of good folks!

Krautboy