LAST EDITED ON 11-13-09 AT 11:21 AM (EST)

Jeff is parsing words again (something we all should keep in mind). Laura didn't see the Kelly boot coming, any Galu boot for that matter. Even though they knew there was an HII somewhere in camp to be found, Monica was shot down when she brought up the possibility it might be played.

From her post-vote confessional it seems she has taken the Kelly boot personally and has perhaps fixated on Russell as the object of her wrath (or it could be all four Foa Foa). Not smart game, what's done is done and she should be looking forward not making it personal.

Thanks to Survivor Phoenix:

TEMPERS FLARE AND AN ALLIANCE THREATENS TO SPLINTER APART AT THE MOST DRAMATIC TRIBAL COUNCIL YET, ON "SURVIVOR SAMOA"

A clever castaway jeopardizes the success of a scheme to ensure their own safety in the game.

That blurb sounds like it came from Total Drama Action (previously Island)...................

Hard to top the last 2 TCs, so I'm surprised they're promising the most dramatic TC yet -- but I guess there is the potential for a tie and they'll play that up big-time.

Regarding the alliance that threatens to splinter apart: I'm guessing it could mean 2 things (which aren't necessarily mutually exclusive):

-- Some doubt is created about whether the 4 FF (+ Shambo) stick together (if this is the case, then it must be misdirection)

-- Or it could also mean that 1 (or more) of the remaining Galus flips to avoid the tie. Side note on this: In the online chat today, I asked Kelly if she thought the Galus would hang tight next episode or if another one (not including Shambo) would flip, and she said John is the most likely to flip, esp. now that Erik is gone.

LAST EDITED ON 11-13-09 AT 07:20 PM (EST)

If the word "clever" wasn't in this sentence, I would definitely think it was Shambo, because we've seen her jeopardize numerous plans in the past: A clever castaway jeopardizes the success of a scheme to ensure their own safety in the game.

So assuming it's not Shambo, whose safety would need to be ensured? And who might jeopardize the plan?

At this point, with not much to go on in the vidcaps, I'm guessing John. Let's say John flips and FF tries to protect the fact that he's really with them...but then the rocket scientist overthinker does something to tip Laura/Galu off? Just a hunch. (I still haven't thought through why John would hop over to FF+Shambo at this point...what would be the upside for him, esp. since he'd be at the bottom of the alliance.)

Maybe it's not John, it's Brett that flips and then almost balls everything up? Or after Brett flips maybe Natalie screws up while trying to play undercover with the 90210's again? Hmmm...... hopefully we'll get more to go on soon, especially if the Fever vidcaps can be seen more easily.......

>A clever castaway jeopardizes the success
>of a scheme to ensure
>their own safety in the
>game.

If Galu realizes that Shambo is now a Foa Foa then the scheme could be a repeat of Ian and Tom's plan: "We aren't afraid of the purple rock and are ready to force a tie." The clever castaway would be the one that decides the purple rock is not for him afterall and goes to Foa Foa. John? Possibly.

John has been edited as too clever for his own good, and so has Dave, to some extent. Brett, we know little about. I'm sure he's bright, but no sign of "clever" so far.

Here's a totally crazy idea. CBS just posted a new promo (see vidcaps thread), and Russell says he knows he doesn't need the idol, but we cannot see who he's saying it to. Then the Narrator asks whether Russell will find a 3rd HII and become the greatest Survivor in history, or will he become the biggest fool.

Maybe I'm reading too much into this, but I'm thinking that Russell could give the HII (assuming he or someone on FF finds it) to someone on Galu that he wants to win over for this episode to avoid the 5-5 tie and put FF in the lead. I'm thinking the person he gives it to could be Brett (since we just learned from the Kelly post game interview that Brett and Shambo are tight, and maybe she tells Russell he's the most trustworthy one to try to flip). Or it could also be John, esp. since he seemed the most receptive person to Russell's overtures the previous episode.

No matter who it is, this theory would help explain why 1 of the Galu guys (or gals) would be willing to flip at this point -- the HII would guarantee them F4 (then every man or woman for him/herself).

So tying back to this week's clues...could the "clever castaway" who's been given the gift of the HII in exchange for voting with FF this week almost jeorpardize the plan by thinking of double crossing RussHell? (And hence the promo hint that RussHell could be turned into a fool?)

Just a theory/hunch...it's late so I might not be thinking straight...what do you guys think???

These are good theories, michel and Squid.

The new promo certainly raises questions.

My take was the same as michel's, that it is Galu who has a scheme, and the clever one, which sounded to me like John, would rather switch than possibly go down in a tie.

As for Brett's tie to Shambo, remember the opening confessional this seaason was Brett introducing Shambo. Those two have been linked from the very outset of the show, but so far there's been no storyline to explain the link. I've always expected that one would emerge. Whether this episode, I don't know, as there's still time.

However, this is the episode where Foa Foa NEEDS an ally. If they send another Galu away and remain tight, along with Shambo, they don't need Brett. Basically, if someone wants to be adopted by Foa Foa, then now is the time.

It could even be there are two people toying with flipping, both John and Brett, but only one sticks. Or maybe they really do purple rock.

Here's another thought. Purple rock isn't the first result of a tie, but rather a deadlock tie. First there is a revote. In S1, the revote on the tie resulted in a changed vote, so there was no tiebreaker.

So it is very possible for a dramatic TC to happen because the first vote is a tie, which makes Jeff recite the purple rock rules before the revote, and then someone switches because they would be vulnerable to the draw.

I'm a little behind on interviews but there's one thing that can work in favor of Brett being the one to flip: He was with the FF4 during the reward loss but we saw nothing of it (except for a nugget that belongs in the editing thread). They had to talk didn't they? I wonder if anything will come of it.

He did get to spend time with them, very true. Laura was there as well, though, so who knows how much opportunity she would allow, at least around the campfire. I would think she kept tabs on the group. Of course there could have been some "hunting and gathering" action during the day.

I do like the idea of a tie/revote -- could definitely see that happening. And I like Michel's Ian/Tom analogy...in a way, it's kind of like a game of chicken. Who's going to flinch first?

Regarding the clever castaway clue: How are you guys interpretting the end part of the sentence, about a scheme "to ensure their own safety?" Because of the word "own," I was reading this as the clever person potentially undermines a plan to keep him/herself safe (vs. the entire tribe). But maybe I'm being too literal.

That's how I read it. The person protects himself or herself at the possible expense of the group plan.

If there's a repeat of the "Tom-Ian ultimatum" I see the clever player going behind Laura's back and voting with the FF4 + Shambo, ensuring his safety by avoiding the purple rock scenario.

As for Brett's tie to Shambo, remember the opening confessional this seaason was Brett introducing Shambo. Those two have been linked from the very outset of the show, but so far there's been no storyline to explain the link. I've always expected that one would emerge. Whether this episode, I don't know, as there's still time. However, this is the episode where Foa Foa NEEDS an ally. If they send another Galu away and remain tight, along with Shambo, they don't need Brett. Basically, if someone wants to be adopted by Foa Foa, then now is the time.

This is what I'm thinking too. This is the opening Brett (and the editing) needed. Brett got the first confessional of the entire season and then he went MIA. Perhaps TPTB didn't want him tied too closely to Galu (and Kelly) and hid him. Now his time and story have come. He gave the opening quote about Shambo and then we had the press release photo of him and Shambo during the merge feast. IIRC, he is a student of the game. He could decide that its time to flip and/or avoid the purple rock. There's also an interesting vidcap of him during the IC challenge that I think is significant:

It would be good for OFG theory, but we're pretty sure he's not in danger. Maybe he wins immunity, but I think he could be the clever one.

Since this is a "Day of Reckoning" (Retribution), could the "Barbies" decide it is Justice to target Natalie?

Only, Russell finds the Idol and gives it to Natalie, or Natalie finds it herself. If the FF's vote (with Shambo, and maybe John) Laura, she will be outta there. That might make for an excellent Day of Rechoning.

I've been wondering how the Galu girls are going to react to Natalie. So far there's been no hint of that in any of the promos, which at this point is a good sign for Natalie.

I guess that's the beauty of Natalie's strategy to ride Russell's coattails -- it's kind of like Boston Rob and Amber -- he's takes the heat for all the dirty work.

As a calendar note, TDT thinks this could be a one Day episode, per Day of Reckoning, but Ponderosa clip clearly shows Kelly and Erik are alone 3 days, so there will be an RC.

OMG!

That doesn't provide much time to SCRAMBLE!

Here's the TV Guide blurb:

The former Galu tribe members try not to let Russell out of their sights so he can't find another hidden immunity idol. At tribal council, another castaway is voted out of the game.

Interesting.

If Russell finds the HII while he's being watched, he still finds the HII. And can pass it to anyone he wants if need be. It's just like regular individual immunity that way, you can give it to someone else.

Or... he could tell the other Foa Foa all the most likely hiding spots (which he already figured out for himself), he doesn't really need to find it as long as one of his allies does.

Bluster could be for the sake of the game, keep the Galu rattled.