Forum: DCForumID2
Thread Number: 7191
[ Go back to previous page ]
Original Message
"SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-15-09 at 11:55 AM
FloPo here, trying to pinch hit for Scarlett, sorry it's so late! Nevertheless, welcome to the SOTS, State of the Spoiling, where we try and one up EPMB and accurately predict the results of his show before it airs...sometimes we are right, and sometimes we are not. But, we will eternally try! Please check out our Community Guidelines. They keep Blows running smoothly and remind us that it is nice to be civil!
Now, on with Survivor: Tocantins...
Last time on Survivor: Coach and Co-Coach and Brendan struggled for control of Forza...the alpha males were running rampant, and it seemed as though the dominant tribe was scheming far more than the underdog, Jalapao's. JT and Stephen went from extremely worried about the odds being 4 to 6, to laughing about all the cracks to be exploited in the Timbira 6. Suddenly, JT finds himself the most popular player in the game...Tyson proclaimed that he was far more a schemer than Brendan, and that the sneaky bastard needed to go, yet Brendan had the ole HII in his pocket and wasn't afraid to use it...what a bummer it was when the hss quit-helicopter came to whisk Joe and his bum leg off for repair. Too bad we couldn't have seen what would have happened had TC materialized....Brendan, indeed, lives to see another day, as he bought another 3 days, yet didn't even know it, and the Dragon Slayer waits to taste impending blood...
See what Jiffy had to say about the episode in his blog, brought to us by suzzee. Jiffy particularly comments on Coach, how naive he is regarding JT and his word; JT, as people who get other people to listen to them do very well in this game; people have alot of animosity toward Brendan; Tyson hates everybody and Jiffy can not understand why he hates Sierra...Sierra love, blah, blah, blah; Serena...
The Biggest Fraud in the Game
This week, Tribephyl brings us the title and the clues thread, here. I predict, the alphas are going to hit the fan...the girls can just sit back and enjoy the fireworks. CBS gives us a few TINY morsels to chew on...SCRATCH CBS, thank goodness for Survivor Phoenix for posting the few tidbits that were released...
OLD TRIBAL ALLIANCES QUICKLY FALL BY THE WAYSIDE
AS THE POWER PLAYERS FROM BOTH TRIBES
START PLOTTING A COURSE TO THE FINISH LINE,
ON "SURVIVOR: TOCANTINS — THE BRAZILIAN HIGHLANDS"
1. An unlikely trio find themselves enjoying an epic reward together.
2. Meanwhile, allies are left behind and become concerned that the reward will result in unplanned bonding with a common enemy.
These tidbits fit nicely with the collage of vidcaps that Survivor Phoenix has provided for us...
It seems that thankfully we had at least some kind of debate in Blows for this week...we all chewed this one up and spit it out in many different ways. Seems that the Reward Challenge will have the daws divided into three teams of three, as noted in the vidcap thread...
The RED team:
...consists of at least Taj and Tyson.
The WHITE team...
...has at least Erinn on it.
The BLACK team...
...has at least Brendan on it.
The one daw that we all agree on is that Debbie is on reward...the female on the raft looks skinny, has "older arms", and looks to have her buff around her middle...if you look closely, you can see her almost white hair, just under her helmet...to seal the deal, here's this picture...
A picture of Debbie at camp with her black blindfold on her shoulder, from the RC...what else could that be?
So, from the overhead shot, it appears as if they are all caucasian, if that is the case, than Taj is not there, and if she is not there, neither is Tyson, as he's on the RED team.
If Debbie is the only female on the raft, then Erinn, on the WHITE team, is not there. Therefore, by deduction, the black team must be the winners, therefore, Brendan, must be on the raft. Most think that he is seated in the front on the left of the raft.
The controversy concerns the male behind the guide, in the middle, right side of the raft...He's wearing his buff on his head. I think it most resembles JT, while others think it most resembles, Coach. Time will tell! Could be either! The unlikely trio is either Brendan, Debbie and JT, or it could possibly be Brendan, Debbie, and Coach...
The preview promo seems to pit...
Brendan VS....
Coach
Here is Brendan, rallying his troops...
...and here is Coach fighting back...cutting the head off of the exile alliance, no, the dragon...
....errr, make that the FISH
Brendan notes, The exile alliance hibernated for awhile. It's finally going to rear it's ugly head.
The next promo asks this question...Take a wild Survivor ride, where everyone thinks they control the game. Which castaway does?
Interesting to note that neither Coach or Brendan has their name in graphics stamped over their picture...hmmmm, could imply that neither of them have the power...
...but later in the week comes the full promo, and it includes all of the above pictures, but first we hear Coach note, This is gonna be the biggest power move to date..., then JT notes, I'm involved in a power alliance right now, then Stephen says, Which?, then Tyson says, It will be a win/win for me! Erinn adds I've got some room to play around, and Debbie notes, Let's have a reality check!, and then there are these vidcaps with the following text...
This will be one of the biggest blindsides so far in the game!
and finally...
Okay, do what you gotta do, and we'll come in later...
Volcanic Glass sums it up nicely...
...as per usual, there will be alot of plotting and scheming going on...
Regarding the IC, yes, there will be one. If you look closely in the background of this vidcap, you will see a green square with an X on it, as well as tree mail on JT's left, on the ground...
Some folks are speculating that perhaps this could be our IC winner...
We don't know...
So, the question of the hour...which alpha male will it be...
Brendan or Coach???
Well, if you read the editing thread by our lovely, Veruca Salt, you would know that most people are thinking that Brendan or Coach are just misdirection. The one alpha with a big spike in confessionals seemed to be our showboat with the big baby blues...
Tyson
Tyson has told us just how much he enjoys a great blindside. We think that Brendan will be right, and that this will be one of the biggest blindsides in the game so far!
Please stop by Dabo's Vote Thread and VOTE!
Go and see Georgiana's, Signs of Survival Thread. It really is spectacular. She answers many intruiging questions and goes to painstaking lengths to dress it up in magnificant local art. It is an amazing contribution to our Boards.
Awesome, FlowerPower! I learned a lot! I hadn't caught that black fabric on Debbie's arm. So Black wins, and it is JT, I think. No group of Timbira's is an unlikely duo. These clues are for the general audience, and to them the tribal alignments are still fresh. Coach and Tyson will not like having their new recruit JT in a boat with Brendan, even with Debbie as watchdog. And we do see Brendan chatting up JT for the first time we know of, later on. If Debbie still has the black scarf, maybe that shot is right after the RC, and they are waiting for a boat or something to come pick them up from camp for the rafting. I don't see why she would have it draped on her after the reward (unless she loves it). ETA it could also be Stephen in the boat, but there does seem to be green buff around the forehead as you point out. I love that collage that VG put together! Even though I knew Joe was getting med-evaced last week, the strategizing kept me riveted to the TV. This week could be just as exciting! I can't wait. I agree that Tyson will be the "biggest blindside in the game so far!"
Belle Book Regarding this: "Brendan, indeed, lives to see another day, as he bought another 3 days, yet didn't even know it." I think it should be noted that an Insider clip has Taj telling Stephen and JT that she warned Brendan about the danger.
I'm with you on the Tyson boot and it'll be fun to watch it unfold -- alas, the wrong prima donna is getting the boot as far as I'm concerned. Stinky Musings <--- blog's been updated!
How about this idea for the RC. They are in teams of two. Debbie and Brandon win the RC, and get to bring one person along for the reward. The producers love rewards that reveal alliances. Anyway, Brandon would let Debbie pick and she would pick Coach. That is my guess for how those 3 end up in the raft. Awesome SOTS dearie, two thumbs up.
I'm curious: how do all the Tyson voters think Tyson is going to get voted out? Do you think JT/Stephen are going to vote with the Exile Alliance (and because Coach wins immunity they pick Tyson instead)? If so, why do you think JT/Stephen would renege on the Coach alliance so quickly, when they were clearly on board with it last week? Or do you think Tyson is booted by some other method? 2) I think from the insider that JT is looking at himself and Stephen as a module that can be "needed" by one side or the other and survive that way. As it stands, JT and Stephen are 2 to 3 Timbira if he sticks with that alliance, which wouldn't bode well. Now if they can take out Tyson without completely losing Coach's trust, that would open the door to bring in Taj, who has been bonding with Debbie a little. Can they make an argument for being trusted again after taking out Tyson? Maybe; Tyson is certainly a big threat. 3) They know Brendan has an idol to play, if he doesn't have immunity, and they may feel that Brendan is not going to go anyway. I feel like JT and Stephen are going to set Brendan up by appearing to align with him this time and they will blindside him next time, when he'll feel that the inter-tribal alliance is solidly in play and won't play the idol. Nothing in the promos about the idol this week, so maybe Brendan has immunity or just gambles correctly. If he went home without playing it, I feel like they would put it in a teaser. I could see it if Brendan wins immunity (more so than if Coach wins immunity, actually). Brendan wants to get rid of Coach. But JT is more aligned with Coach than with Tyson. If, as you point out, JT still wants to make use of the Coach alliance, he might be able to change Brendan's mind into targetting Tyson this time. I feel like Tyson should have a lot more exposure in this week's previews if he's going to leave, though. He seems fairly absent. Regarding Brendan...while I do think there could have been a possibility that he would have indeed been booted last week, had there been a TC, because, he had not addressed his cross tribal allies, when he should have at least assured them some how...after all they were significantly down in the numbers. However, that never came to pass, and I think the key was, as Tyson noted, that the plan depended on them keeping it quiet. As michel noted, in the insider clips, Taj raised the red flag to Brendan. His immediate gut reaction is to focus on Coach, which we see in the preview promo. However, if he sleeps on it, I think he will agree that the bigger threat would be Tyson, and I'm sure that the rest of his alliance will make the case for Tyson as well. Also, remember how Jiffy mocked Coach in his blog...how Coach trusted JT on his word and a handshake, and how ridiculous that was...JT was in survival mode last week, without the numbers, and without the II. But, now they will all know that Brendan has the idol and is clued into the plot from Coach and Tyson to get him out. Clearly, they still have the numbers to get Brendan, IF, and only if, JT and Stephen are on board...I don't think these two will be when they know Brendan is clued in. They are not likely to throw their votes away at him, as they could come back to bite them should he play his idol. And once they are in the majority alliance, the exile alliance, they can use the others to turn on the threats within the exile alliance, mainly Brendan. I also think that Stephen and JT are a smart couple. I do think that Stephen has JT's back. I think if they blindside Tyson, when they have the opportunity now, they could get Brendan later. They also have to appease Taj, who could give them her idol, should they ever need it. I think they will go with Taj, who will be tight with Brendan. I think they may say that they are going for Coach, when in actuality the plan will be to take Tyson out, and he will be blindsided. Tyson screamed cockiness last week in the show...he was far more scheming than Brendan, Brendan was the sneakiest bastard out there and he didn't trust him, and he could mold the game however he chose to...we all know what happens when you get too cocky in this game. Coach has always been edited as a pompous a$$, Tyson set out to scheme with a vengeance last week...it just seems that he is the logical boot, imo, as he is indeed a challenge threat that will need to be offed when the opportunity arises...and all of this talk about getting Brendan out as the first post merge boot...it will be one of them, Tyson or Coach...I'm on board with Tyson. Now, is that wordy enough for you...
I'd be more on board for a Tyson boot if he were all over the previews. As a "character", he should be a little more hyped in his boot episode, imo. I keep getting the feeling that the IC this week is going to be the Coconut Chop challenge (the very first time they used it, in Marquesas, was at F9). Another point to be made is if the boot story is in a teaser, than it is likely the bit about the unwanted bonding on the raft trip. Brendan and JT have never had a chance to converse freely and get a sense of each other. Also, Brendan wanted a 4-person alliance with the exiles ... but I think he envisioned keeping it under wraps a little longer. Now he needs 5 people and we see he is recruiting JT, definitely planning something, apparently the Coach blindside. Why would they give that away in the promos if that's the alliance that will prevail? I think only if the TARGET differs, i.e. the misdirection in the promo is COACH, when the target ends up TYSON. A lot of viewers will tune in to see Coach get his comeuppance. That's why I think they are not featuring Tyson this week. They want to surprise us. As to why JT/Stephen goes along with Brendan, I think >everyone thinks they control the game, but ... Tyson <in confessional>: It would be a win/win for me. Announcer: ...castaway... I think Tyson is right in the middle of that question, and shown being supremely confident. Coach and Brendan aren't even in it ... You know what would be interesting, is if the people shown really are those who ultimately prevail ... and the bootee. MY picks for F4 are all there.
Wow, BR, you are amazing. I knew it would be an alpha male. I thought it would come from one of Tyson, Coach, Brendan, JT. But, looking at the confessionals, it screamed Tyson to me. And, frankly, I still see Tyson as a very marked man. His arrogance is spectacular, he is not long for this game, imo, and yes, I do believe whole-heartedly that he will be blindsided as well. I have to admit though, I LOVED this blindside, clearly, I have not seen a blindside this amazing since Leanne's in Vanuatu. Brandon, what a FOOL he was....he even told us in confessional that he had his idol in his pocket and wouldn't hesitate to use it. Hello, BRANDAN, what were you thinking? And, where did all the JT love come from that he wanted to replace him in the finals? Wow, JT is amazing...I am beginning to think that he could win this game... We knew Brendan would not win, however, as he had told us earlier that the game was about having "fun". Kudos to the CBS for setting up this lovely blindside, and BR, you are the amazing man for the week! Well done.
You were totally right. Good on JT for inspiring everyone's trust and admiration just before he cuts their throat. Also great discussion going on in this thread. I'm actually the most torn between Tyson & Erinn for the boot this week, but I like the Tyson discussion from FP & OFG here. To Brownroach and MDSkinner for a truly remarkable call. I didn't post a vote, but I was absolutely certain that Benjamin would go. To you - and to kircon, CTgirl, michel, Scarlett, Sylvester, Pepe and tribe - for the Season's SOTS to date. Each one has been thorough, uniquely entertaining and wonderfully informative. And I really appreciated your gracious mention of Signs ... . Thank you. And to you for your amazing analysis of the Episode's RC vidcaps that is now (because TDT obviously knows exceptional art when he sees it) justifiably famous. It was a great week, wasn't it? And I just know that by next week Pepe or one of our other 'wizards' will have figured out what those mysterious Xs are about. At least, I hope someone will ... and soon. They're driving me nuts. G 
Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-15-09 at 02:20 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-15-09 AT 02:50 PM (EST)
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by CTgirl on 04-15-09 at 06:30 PM
Great job pinch-hitting FloPo!! You put all the pieces together despite a stingy week from CBS!
Another Tribe Creation
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Belle Book on 04-15-09 at 07:39 PM
I agree. Bye-bye, Tyson!
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by michel on 04-15-09 at 08:01 PM
Great job FP! It was a fun read and thanks for that picture of Debbie with the black buff. It really clears everything up.
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 04-16-09 at 11:12 AM
Thanks for pinch-hitting, FloPo, and well done in pulling everything together on short notice!
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by byoffer on 04-16-09 at 11:57 AM
Good job, FloPo. I hope you are wrong, and Tyson stays, but the layout is mostly sound.
It's Bachelor Love, which is like Monopoly Money in that it has no actual value outside the game. - frodis
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 04-16-09 at 02:56 PM
There are 9 people left in the game - how would they divide up the contestants if there are teams of two?
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by suzzee on 04-16-09 at 03:00 PM
Noooooooo, not my blue eyed snarkopotomus! *sigh*
Fear and Loathing Tribe style 2008
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-16-09 at 03:29 PM
Excelicious SOTS, FloPo. And congrats on TDT picking up on your reward winners.
A tribe glows in Brooklyn
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-16-09 at 04:24 PM
BR, I realize you were asking FP, but your question has been niggling at me.
1) I think Brendan could win immunity, which would mean the Coach alliance wouldn't have an alpha male to target. That would explain Brendan's survival.
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-16-09 at 04:37 PM
Hi OFG, I wasn't asking just FloPo, I was asking anyone/everyone in general. I appreciate your answer.
A tribe glows in Brooklyn
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-16-09 at 04:44 PM
I'll respond to that, BR. I don't think Coach will be the boot yet, because I don't think the editing is done with him yet, he does not appear to be a significant threat in the challenges, in fact, I am inclined to think he may not win the IC tonight, and I will agree that I don't think he is as emaciated as he appeared to be when he returned...also remember Brendan commented on just how predictable Coach was...therefore he was non-threatening.
...actually, I don't know exactly how it will happen, but I do think JT and Stephen will go with the Taj and the exile alliance, and I think they will choose to boot Tyson, over Coach, who I do not think will win immunity...it will be a blindside.
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-16-09 at 04:57 PM
I don't think Coach is leaving yet, either -- if it's going to be one of Coach and Brendan, it will be Brendan.
A tribe glows in Brooklyn
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-16-09 at 05:14 PM
good reply, FloPo, that all makes sense to me. Taj's influence must be considered, I agree.
a) didn't have this option last week, because B hadn't pulled it together, and JT wasn't included and didn't even know about it.
b) this alliance has BOTH idols
c) Taj (ally) is on board
(d) definitely have the numbers and don't have to split votes to avoid an idol bounce like they did last week.
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-16-09 at 05:27 PM
went off to look for Tyson in the promos, to try to answer BR:
Which...
JT, Stephen, Tyson, Erinn, Debbie, Taj are shown, in that order.
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-16-09 at 07:01 PM
Regarding Brendan or Tyson...well, Brendan had some confessionals last week, far fewer than the other alpha males, but it's what he said. That he was aware that he could be the target, and if it was going that way, he wouldn't hesitate to use his idol...he's aware, and he has a get out of jail free card, the HII...whereas, Tyson, he had a big confessional spike, and appeared extremely arrogant and had set his sites on Brendan, and Brendan alone...while Brendan seemingly was preparing to take on Coach...if all of these blindsides are ahead, I'd say the producers have set Tyson up for one here...you never know though...
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-17-09 at 06:15 AM
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-17-09 at 03:11 AM
Major shout-out to Brownroach for making a pick that went against the flow and being RIGHT ON.
I was in denial that Brendan would be the new Marcus.
Oh man, I wished he would play that idol and I knew he wouldn't.
The promos were sneaky this week. They made the sit down with Brendan look like a good long session, when instead it was lickety split, way too short for Brendan to win everyone over.
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-17-09 at 12:12 PM
LOL -- I was sure I'd messed up when the show opened with JT saying "Brendan is going next" -- whenever someone says that at the beginning of an episode, the person never leaves. (Which maybe is just one more hint that JT is the winner...JT said it would happen and it did! JT is da man!)
A tribe glows in Brooklyn
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-17-09 at 03:29 PM
Speaking of the overly obvious hint -- JP said in his blog lookout granola boy the Dragonslayer has you in his sights. Exactly what happened. Just goes to show that if you lie enough you can occasionally tell the truth and people won't believe it.
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by whoami on 04-16-09 at 03:49 PM
Great job Flower, thanks.
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by sylvester on 04-16-09 at 05:36 PM
Amazing job FP!
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Outfrontgirl on 04-17-09 at 03:58 PM
Congrats to you FlowerPower for totally nailing the occupants of the raft. That was some wonderful vidcap work.
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Brownroach on 04-17-09 at 04:08 PM
Yes, I want to ditto that (I barely have any time to be online today) -- FloPo, that was great!
A tribe glows in Brooklyn
"RE: SB's State of the Spoiling, "He's the biggest fraud in the game""
Posted by Georjanna on 04-17-09 at 11:34 PM
I'd like to add my congratulations ...