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"Jury vote speculation"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 04-10-07 at 09:28 AM
The merge is coming this episode and we have two jurors seated. Knowing that we will have a jury of 9 and a final 3, let's keep track of who we think will vote for whom and why in this thread.

Rocky- He has respect for Earl (from post game interviews), even though rivaled with Dreamz- he could vote for him because of how he turns the game and sticks up for himself, there is no chance of a Rocky vote for Cassandra.

Lisi- She doesn't like Dreamz or Cassandra, so will she vote for Earl just because of that?

I think that so far we have two people that will vote for Earl.


Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion

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Messages in this discussion
"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by emydi on 04-10-07 at 10:13 AM
Well michel says in the Insider thread, Lisi thought Earl to be annoying...so I'm thinking she'll vote Cassandra by default; 2nd choice Earl for not being a Loser ...no way she'll vote for Dre

Lisi: Cassandra: 70%
Earl 30%
Dre 0%

I agree on Rocky...Earl with Dre as a slight possibility

Rocky Earl 90%
Dre 10%
Cassandra 0%

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by Bebo on 04-10-07 at 01:30 PM
Rocky - No reason for him to vote for Cassandra - she's a girl, he's never been on a tribe with her to get to know her, he's never going to do anything that could lead to being beaten by a girl. He and Earl were original tribemates, and Earl was not involved in his demise, so I see an Earl vote here.

Lisi - I'm going to disagree with the votes so far and stick out the chance that she does indeed vote for Dreamz. In her final words, she hoped he and Mookie would make it far into the game, even though she didn't think they would. And I think she would appreciate having an in-your-face kinda person go far and win it, and when he plays the I-used-to-be-homeless card, she'd be more likely to see that as evidence that he is 'worthy'. Plus, it would be one more jab at Alex and Edgardo for voting her out when they had a chance to get rid of Dre. I may change this as I watch Dre's behavior at upcoming TCs, but right now, I think she could be a Dreamz vote.

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-10-07 at 03:42 PM
Seeing how Lisi's brain works, it's impossible to predict who she would vote for based on any kind of logic. Who knows what rationale she will use? I also think she might very well end up voting for Dreamz. But she might vote for any of the three of them.


Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by Estee on 04-10-07 at 07:43 PM
Lisi: Asks F3 to choose a random number between one and one hundred. While en route to voting area, stops, turns to F3, and asks if any of them remembers what she picked.
"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 04-13-07 at 09:20 AM
Michelle is a dead solid vote for Earl. I suppose if the final speeches sway her she might vote Cassandra as the sole surviving female among all the men, but it is doubtful. No way will she vote Dreamz.


Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by forestfriend on 04-18-07 at 10:47 PM
I think there will be a couple of thunderingly stupid jury votes:

Lisi: first abstention ever because she does not like black people.

Rocky: votes for Dreamz, just to show, man-to-man, no hard feelings, that they are both dudes.

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by emydi on 04-20-07 at 09:33 AM
Well Edgardo is a 100% Earl vote! The only people in Earl's alliance that Edgardo thinks deserve $1million, imho, are Earl and Yau Man.

Actually, after last nite, Rocky may vote for Dre for the "wow you really messed up everyone's game" vote


Lisi is still a crap shoot but I think she will not give the $ to Dre. She may be the lone vote for Cassandra.

Michelle is 100% Earl.

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 04-20-07 at 10:54 AM
And considering how much Mookie and Alex dislike Cassandra and were betrayed by Dreamz, they are locks for Earl too.


Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by emydi on 04-20-07 at 11:06 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-20-07 AT 11:09 AM (EST)

Right! and don't forget Yau who Dre will oust at F4 after the car challenge promise. Yau is more connected to Earl than Cass.

I still think it may be a 9-0 vote for Earl...but Rocky and Lisi are wildcards themselves and maybe Stacy votes for Cass as being the last female?

But I think I would have to vote for Dre (being totally unemotional) because if he is able to make it to F3 after barreling thru this game the way he did...he deserves it more than Cass who did not much and Earl who let everyone else do his dirty work...I think Rocky may think that...OH NO, I'm ROcky!!

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by Bebo on 04-20-07 at 04:31 PM
Right now, I don't think Stacy would vote for Cassandra after that chop challenge. One of the downsides of getting every question right in the challenge was calling out all of the negative Stacy attitude within the camp. Dreamz throwing the challenge was a way to avoid ticking people off.

Stacy's vote is still up in the air. But Edgardo, Alex, and Mookie are all going to be Earl votes. Throw in Yau Man and Michelle, and this game is over - there's your 5 votes to win.


"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by drich61 on 04-21-07 at 09:16 AM
Well Edgardo is a 100% Earl vote!

There would have been no reason to show the general public his he hates Cassandra comment, if he were an Earl voter. This is only the third time in Survivor history we have been shown a comment like this. Christy saying she would never vote for one of her evil step sisters. Coby, the only none Tom voter, saying he would puck if she lasted longer in the game then he did. Edgardo will vote for Cassandra, that is the only reason we were shown that comment.

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by frisky on 04-20-07 at 10:19 PM
My prediction for Lisi's vote:

"Pick a number between 1 and 999."

Then she spoils her ballot when nobody picks the correct answer: 1,150.


Rolly made this.
Desperate Housecats

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by Brownroach on 05-01-07 at 02:29 PM
From Mookie's interview with IGN.com (at Survivor Fever):

http://www.survivorfever.net/s14_ign_mookie.html

Mookie: You know, I knew, at a certain point in the last episode and the episode before the last one, I knew that Dreamz betrayed us. But I really thought he had a good heart. I really felt for him when he said he was homeless and gave us his story. I actually felt sorry for him and I wanted to help him and I talked a lot about that. But it came as a surprise that he would be the one that would backstab and do the things that he did. Obviously, he wasn't thinking about the end of the game.

Sounds like it won't do Dreamz any good to fall back on the homeless ploy at the final TC.


Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by emydi on 05-04-07 at 12:02 PM
LAST EDITED ON 05-10-07 AT 10:10 AM (EST)

Alex may vote for Cassandra or Dre because they at least listened to him...also we were SHOWN Cass showing some concern for Alex when he was all by himself. I don't see him voting for Earl. Dre tried to help him but Alex will remember the Edgardo boot..

Alex vote

Cass 60
Dre 30%
Earl 100% see Bebo's post below

Stacy is "following Cassandra" and will vote for her. No way Dre and very unlikely Earl

Stacy vote

Cass 99.9%
Earl .1 %
Dre 0%

Although if she thinks Cass (and Earl) betrayed her at F6 then she could give Dre her vote...she's a toss up now

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by Bebo on 05-10-07 at 07:05 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-10-07 AT 07:05 AM (EST)

In Alex's TV Guide Online interview, he says he would never vote for Dreamz.

TVGuide.com: The other alliance did manage to pull off that scheme to get your pal Edgardo out.

Alex: Yeah. That was Yau-Man and Earl, who do think several steps ahead. But for Dreamz and Stacy, going back on the alliance they had with Edgardo, Mookie and I bought them . Now if they make it to the end... none of us are ever going to vote for them. They are going to be on the outside of an already tight alliance. If you start flip-flopping you are going to piss off too many people to win this thing. I don't think they thought of it that way. Sure, they got further than I did, but on a long-term basis, I don't see that working out for them.

http://www.tvguide.com/News-Views/Interviews-Features/Article/default.aspx

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by emydi on 05-10-07 at 10:09 AM
He has to vote for Earl out of respect then imho...he said it was Yau and Earl that think ahead...no mention of Cass

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by RudyRules on 05-10-07 at 12:18 PM
Thanks for that info Bebo...
I don't think there is any way he votes for Dre.


"Them people had to be pretty dumb to make their camp in a riverbed." - Rudy Boesch

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by Brownroach on 05-10-07 at 12:55 PM
LAST EDITED ON 05-11-07 AT 10:16 AM (EST)

I'm starting to wonder if some of this anti-Dreamz stuff is a smokescreen. When Alex was trying to convince Earl to vote out Yau-Man, he said Yau-Man would want to vote out Earl and Dreamz next because he was worried that he couldn't beat either of them. That seems strange re Dreamz (to us), but it must have seemed like a plausible argument or Alex wouldn't have used it. (It would have been ridiculous to use that argument about the expressly unpopular Stacy, for example.)

So maybe Dreamz isn't as reviled as we are thinking he should be by the end of the game.

ETA: I do still think Earl is destined to win, but I think Dreamz may nab two, three or maybe even four votes.


Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by RudyRules on 05-10-07 at 04:32 PM
Dre... 2 votes: maybe. 4 votes: Nah
I think if he goes back on his agreement with Yau Man he destroys any chance he has.


"Them people had to be pretty dumb to make their camp in a riverbed." - Rudy Boesch

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by Corvis on 05-10-07 at 04:44 PM
My impression, and maybe this is just Jeff hype, but my impression is that there'd be discussion about whether what happened was right or not. Which leads me to think that some people on the jury might argue that all's fair in Survivor and Dreamz did what he had to do to win it. I guess I'm not sure that Dreamz not winning is a slam dunk.

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by emydi on 05-11-07 at 09:42 AM
Corvis, I've been thinking about this post and I'm not sure that "controversial" means that the vote is split btw Dre and Earl/Cass bc of him breaking his word. I just think that bc it was done to Yau the nicest guy who's ever played and bc Dre espoused his "word means everything" that it is just talked about/debated at tc (sparked by Jiffy...he's going to eat this up!!)

But then I also read Estee's astute post on the East Coast thread on Jiffy's comments on IC:

'Earl just barely makes it.' ('But I did,' replies Earl.)
'Yau-Man short.' (Possibly he's noticed.)

Hmm...

Could it be 4/3/2 or 5/2/2 vote?


EARL

Definites: Michelle and Yau
Most likelY: Mookie and Edgardo
Likely: Boo
Maybes: Lisi Rocky Alex

CASSANDRA

Definite: Stacy (after Cass didn't betray her)
Maybe: Lisi
Slight Chance: Alex (for her playing game and listening to him at F7)
No chance: Mookie Edgardo

DRE

Definites: No one
Likely: No one
Maybes: Rocky (EPMB loves his irony in editing), Alex (his friendship with Dre was focused on and he might be a "all's fair" and the smokescreen comment from BR above is a possibility)
Slight Chance: Boo (if he thinks he was betrayed by Cass and Earl..we didn't see how he came to know to vote for Yau last nite...)

So it could be a lot closer than I originally thought...but I still think a 9-0 vote is very slight possiblity although Stacy could make it 8-1-0 vote....

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by Brownroach on 05-11-07 at 10:30 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-11-07 AT 02:28 PM (EST)

Hey, Corvis, good to see you.

I do think Earl must win because his edit hasn't had enough negativity in it to portend he'll ultimately lose. The "story" ends up being the battle between Yau-Man ("good") and Dreamz ("bad") and I think they must both lose -- but, Earl as the ally of "good" will triumph.

But I agree that some jurors might be persuaded by Dre's case. What Yau essentially did was dare Dreamz to make himself look bad at F4. Well, some people may not think Dreamz looks so bad if he fakes out Yau-Man.

ETA - TDT is projecting that Earl will get votes from Yau, Alex, Mookie, Edgardo, Michelle, and Rocky. He has Boo, Stacy and Lisi as question-marks.


Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: Jury vote speculation"
Posted by Brownroach on 05-11-07 at 03:40 PM
On the Survivometer entry for Yau-Man, TDT has a link to this post on SurvivorSkills, which I don't remember seeing before -- but it must have been the first post to spoil the details of the car controversy:

DanieuBleau
Fire is Life

Posted on: Feb. 14 2007,17:12
________________________________________
Nope, not Cindy-like at all. Here's the scenario on The Controversial Decision -

The Car Challenge is reportedly at F5, and for a black monster Ford F-450. With Boo likely to be the F5th.
Yau-Man wins the truck at the RC, but I guess Dreamz makes like he really wanted that truck, so Yau offers him a deal:

He will give Dre the truck, if Dre gives him the Immunity Necklace (not HII) if it's in his possession at F4.
Dre agrees, and takes possession of the truck.

So here comes F4, Dre wins the IC/Immunity Necklace. Now Dre is faced with a monumental decision...keep his word to Yau-Man, or not.
He's supposed to get all weepy-eyed at TC, very dramatic stuff, but after much inward strife, he finally makes this big Controversial Decision ----

*drumroll please*
He reneges on Yau-Man!!
They boot Yau-Man leaving the F3 as Dre, Earl and Cassandra.

Now that I read this, I doubt that crocodile tears followed by one final backstabbing is going to sit well with the jury. Dreamz will probably try to rationalize away his moves at the final TC, claiming he didn't really screw anyone over, but he'd be better off admitting that he lied to everyone all along, imo. So maybe he won't get any votes after all.


Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"Jeff on Elliott in the Morning"
Posted by samboohoo on 05-11-07 at 04:37 PM
Jeff did an interview with Elliott in the Morning.

He said the ending of the show makes up for the beginning. The final jury scene is not quite as good as Season 1, but it ranks a close second. There are a few jury members who really get on a "high horse." Hmm, maybe "horse" is a shot at the "horseman" alliance and it's Mookie, Alex and Edgardo going after Dreamz.


Clear eyes, full hearts, can't lose.

"RE: Jeff on Elliott in the Morning"
Posted by Brownroach on 05-11-07 at 05:01 PM
Definitely Alex:

TVGuide.com: Are we going to see you giving people heck on the finale?
Alex: Oh, you have no idea. No idea! I'm like, "Oh, man, I hope I wasn't too harsh." I let it out.

And I bet Mookie goes off on Dreamz and Cassandra too.



Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl

"RE: Jeff on Elliott in the Morning"
Posted by Bebo on 05-13-07 at 11:42 AM
With Dre's "controversial decision", I'd be surprised if the final TC was dull. There's plenty of fodder for discussing morality, selling out your alliance, etc.

Just points more and more toward a 9-0 Earl vote. He's the only one who makes it to the end without going back on his word or selling out his alliance. Especially after Dre's F4 actions, that should resonate with the jury.