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Original Message
"Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 03-08-07 at 09:43 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-08-07 AT 09:46 AM (EST)We know that the tribe swap occurs in the next episode. Here is my version of how the tribes end up the way they do. We know that Earl and Edgardo ar ethe erstwhile pickers. I think Jeff will start them off by choosing someone from the opposite tribe first. Whatever mechanism for who chooses first, I think Edgardo wins that right.
Choices to pick from:
Moto: Cassandra, Dre, Boo, Alex, Lisi, Stacy,
Ravu- Yau-Man, James, Michelle, Mookie, Anthony
Edgardo chooses Mookie (strongest male from opposing tribe)
Earl chooses Boo (for same reason)
Edgardo chooses Alex (alliance mate)
Earl chooses Yau Man (alliance mate due to HII- they haven't found it yet)
Edgardo chooses Rocky (next strong male from opposite tribe)
Earl chooses Cassandra (he'd rather have someone he can trust)
Edgardo chooses Dre (shocked he is still available)
Earl chooses Michelle (alliance mate)
Edgardo chooses Anthony (again can't believe a man still available)
Earl chooses Stacy (bonded with her better than Lisi pre-split)
Final new tribes:
NuMoto: Earl, Michelle, Yau-Man , Cassandra, Stacy, Boo
NuRavu: Edgardo, Dre, Alex, James, Mookie, Anthony
Lisi goes to exile island and will join NuRavu after the next TC.
On paper, NuRavu should kick butt, we know of course that they don't.
Thoughts?
Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion
Table of contents
- RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation,emydi, 09:48 AM, 03-08-07
- RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation,KObrien_fan, 10:12 AM, 03-08-07
- RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation,Brownroach, 10:32 AM, 03-08-07
- RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation,emydi, 11:59 AM, 03-08-07
- RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation,KObrien_fan, 12:36 PM, 03-08-07
- RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation,Flowerpower, 01:07 PM, 03-08-07
- After further review,KObrien_fan, 07:17 AM, 03-09-07
- RE: After further review,Scarlett O Hara, 08:46 AM, 03-09-07
- RE: After further review,KObrien_fan, 09:45 AM, 03-09-07
- RE: After further review,Brownroach, 10:23 AM, 03-09-07
- RE: After further review,vince3, 12:35 PM, 03-09-07
- RE: After further review,Brownroach, 12:42 PM, 03-09-07
- RE: After further review,KObrien_fan, 01:17 PM, 03-09-07
- Confirmed!,KObrien_fan, 07:37 PM, 03-09-07
- RE: Confirmed!,coolbluepig, 05:39 AM, 03-10-07
- RE: Confirmed!,KObrien_fan, 06:52 AM, 03-10-07
- RE: Confirmed!,emydi, 01:56 PM, 03-16-07
- RE: Confirmed!,Brownroach, 02:21 PM, 03-16-07
Messages in this discussion
"RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation"
Posted by emydi on 03-08-07 at 09:48 AM
I think you are right on...I can't believe these tribes...NuRavu is all male and then NuMoto continues to win!!I think just the first person they pick has to be from opp. tribe.
"RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 03-08-07 at 10:12 AM
I think just the first person they pick has to be from opp. tribe.If that is the case then, why does it come out perfect 3 from each tribe on the new tribes? Also, since Lisi is part of the Moto alliance, why wouldn't Edgardo pick her instead of say Anthony?
Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion
"RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-08-07 at 10:32 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-08-07 AT 10:33 AM (EST)I think you're right, KO, they will have to alternate. Your sequence looks good.
Since the boys and girls are going to be at odds on Moto this week, that would explain why Edgardo would pick Dre over either Stacy or Lisi, and Lisi then getting left out in the cold.

Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl
"RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation"
Posted by emydi on 03-08-07 at 11:59 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-08-07 AT 12:00 PM (EST)oops you are right....and I think you are right on on your order too
Query...how are the Erstwhile captains chosen?
"RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 03-08-07 at 12:36 PM
I'm not sure, maybe Jeff asks for one volunteer from each tribe and then they choose colored stones to see who picks first, or maybe they step onto a disk and whoever has the buff underneath is the chooser. But thanks to VG we do know that it is Earl and Edgardo as the pickers.
Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion
"RE: Tribe Swap Mechanics Speculation"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-08-07 at 01:07 PM
I think you've cracked the case, KO! Well done, sounds great to me!

one nation, under Romber...
"After further review"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 03-09-07 at 07:17 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-09-07 AT 07:25 AM (EST)After watching the previews, it looks like Edgardo and Earl are the starting pickers but then it goes to the next player picked in a chain pickem. It does appear that they have to alternate between picking someone from the opposite tribe and someone from the same tribe.
The vidcaps show that Mookie indeed is Ed's first pick, and we know that later when Rocky picks Dre, Yau Man and Anthony are still standing in line to be picked.
My best guess as to the selection order:
Moto: Cassandra, Dre, Boo, Alex, Lisi, Stacy,
Ravu- Yau-Man, James, Michelle, Mookie, Anthony
Edgardo chooses Mookie (strongest male from opposing tribe)
Earl chooses Boo (for same reason)
Mookie chooses Alex
Boo chooses Michelle
Alex chooses Rocky
Michelle chooses Cassandra
Rocky chooses Dre
Cassandra chooses Yau Man
Dre chooses Anthony
Yau Man chooses Stacy
Final new tribes:
NuMoto: Earl, Michelle, Yau-Man , Cassandra, Stacy, Boo
NuRavu: Edgardo, Dre, Alex, James, Mookie, Anthony
Lisi goes to exile island and will join NuRavu after the next TC.
The only pick that seems wierd to me is the pick of Michelle by Boo, except that we know why he doesn't choose Rocky, he might not like Anthony and Michelle makes more sense than Yau Man. All the others make sense in the order selected.
What do you think?
Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion
"RE: After further review"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 03-09-07 at 08:46 AM
NuMoto: Earl, Michelle, Yau-Man , Cassandra, Stacy, Boo NuRavu: Edgardo, Dre, Alex, James, Mookie, Anthony
Lisi goes to exile island and will join NuRavu after the next TC.
What do you think?
It makes no sense to me why one tribe would pick three women and the old guy, IF they want to stay in the game and win challenges? It seems way too lopsided!
Now ... which tribe gets the Club Moto Camp? Earl's tribe?

One nation, under Romber...
"RE: After further review"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 03-09-07 at 09:45 AM
Earl's tribe gets the green buff and the Moto camp, Edgardo pulls the orange buff much to Rocky's chagrin.I think the people picking (as we have seen before) will have a reason for selecting, one tribe goes for raw strength (perceived) and not so much for peace and ability to bond. The other tribe goes for the ability to bond and the inner strengths of the people.
On paper Ulong looked younger and stronger yet got beat by the older wiser Koror tribe. After getting rid of their own drama queens, the older Chuay Ghan bested the younger more drama prone Sook Jai. Chapera on paper was weaker than Moto Moto or Saboga, yet they bonded so well and came together at challenges. A tribe with less drama (and in this case less drama and better food/water/sleep/shelter) has a better chance to work as a unit.
When in the heat of the picking you pick who looks to be the best option. For Edgardo his first choice is easy, Mookie is the strongest guy on the opposite tribe. Earl, same thing has an easy choice in Boo. Mookie chooses Alex, another strong guy. Boo could choose Rocky or Anthony but doesn't like what he has seen at the challenges, Michelle may be small but she is a tiger and he remembers how helpful she was with the shelter and pleasant to get along with, his only other option is Yau Man and he doesn't think he is strong enough. Alex chooses Rocky, again thinking of the strength and not the drama.
Michelle chooses Cassandra because as everyone who has been booted from the game has said, she is very well liked among the players, and at this point Michelle can only choose a woman as all the Moto men have been taken. Plus, Cassandra has been decent in challenges.
Now Rocky chooses Dre, because even though they don't get along, Rocky wants the brute strength. Cassandra chooses Yau Man because she bonded with him at the beginning and knows he is a native to the area and very useful. Dre makes his final selection which is made for him, he must choose Anthony.
Yau Man has the final pick and must choose between Lisi and Stacy. It will come down to who he bonded with prior to the tribe selection, and also I think he is sharp enough to see that Stacy is better than Lisi at challenges.
Lisi is left out and sent to exile.
Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion
"RE: After further review"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-09-07 at 10:23 AM
Michelle may be small but she is a tiger and he remembers how helpful she was with the shelter and pleasant to get along withIt was also brought up in front of everyone at the subsequent challenge that Michelle had been able to start a fire at Ravu without a flint. That may have left an impression of Michelle as a resourceful person.

Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl
"RE: After further review"
Posted by vince3 on 03-09-07 at 12:35 PM
Michelle chooses Cassandra because as everyone who has been booted from the game has said, she is very well liked among the players, and at this point Michelle can only choose a woman as all the Moto men have been takenand Dre is......?

Adricharlie's still not bitter, is she? Nah.....
"RE: After further review"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-09-07 at 12:42 PM
....not a woman.Michelle would probably pick any woman, just because all the women have been voted out of her current tribe (she didn't vote for Rita). I think her first priority would be to make sure another woman gets on her tribe.

Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl
"RE: After further review"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 03-09-07 at 01:17 PM
My bad Vince, Dre is certainly a guy, when I was making my comments I accidently had Dre picked by Rocky first then put it in the correct order, but had already made the comment on Michelle.I still think it makes sense (in her mind) for her to pass on drama Dre and pick Cassandra.
Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion
"Confirmed!"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 03-09-07 at 07:37 PM
VG posted this today on Phoenix:NEW TRIBE SELECTIONS:
new MOTO: Earl -> Boo -> Michelle-> Cassandra -> Yau-Man -> Stacy
new RAVU: Edgardo -> Mookie -> Alex -> James -> Dre -> Anthony
Exiled: Lisi
Looks familiar...Woot!
Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion
"RE: Confirmed!"
Posted by coolbluepig on 03-10-07 at 05:39 AM
will LISI be exempt from TC?

Co0L 3luE P1g: OINK OINK...
"RE: Confirmed!"
Posted by KObrien_fan on 03-10-07 at 06:52 AM
Yes, she will join the losing tribe after TC same as Sylvia did after the first episode.
Survivor ASS trivia champion, Survivor 1-13 trivia champion
"RE: Confirmed!"
Posted by emydi on 03-16-07 at 01:56 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-07 AT 01:57 PM (EST)whoops...I forgot it goes Moto/Ravu/Moto
So even if Earl got first pick he would have been stuck with choice btw Stacy and Lisi bc he last picked YauMan. Then Lisi is forced? to go to Exile bc Edgardo has to pick a Ravu? Or does he just pick Anthony over Lisi?
"RE: Confirmed!"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-16-07 at 02:21 PM
Actually it looks like Earl and Edgardo just start things off and then each person picks the next one. I assume Dre has to take Anthony as the last remaining Ravu. It's preordained that someone from old Moto would go to EI since they have one extra person.
Blowin' the blues away, courtesy of tribephyl