I think with this Survivor being as tough as it is, we won't see the early boots of strong players as threats. We'll see all the other usual reasos for booting people, but I really doubt you'll see somebody bing a competitive threat being the primary driver behind any boots till we get close to the merge. Not to mention the fact that SeeBS has told us there would be two big twists this season, and at this point only one of them appears to have shown up. I think they'll keep most of their strong players in order to cover their butts and get the work done until the game gets a little older.

Most of what you say is true (I would disagree with you on whether Jed was stronger than Jake and Robb), however, part of my point is that being a strong guy doesn't protect you from being booted out third. In the last 8 versions of the show, with the exception of Lil, none of these guys would be expected to go out soon. There were much weaker players on all of their teams. And yet, strong guys are constantly getting booted out third.

That doesn't mean a strong guy will always be voted out third. However, it is an interesting trend that should be noted when trying to spoil

Now as far as the women went, Lil and Marilyn were "old farts" and therefore considered as "weaker." Jenna M. left of her own accord. And Stacy, I forget why she left. Because this season is so physically-challenging, I think the tribes will keep their stronger players and go after the weakest. Which in Yaxha's case is either Brianna or Amy. As we heard from Morgan after her boot, Brianna was throwing up (along with Jamie). Amy also will be a target as she injures her ankle.

And I do think it is going to be Yaxha who goes to TC again.

Stacy targetted Rudy and was suspicious of Richard's attempts to manipulate the game, Richard decided she had to go.