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Original Message
"BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Flowerpower on 02-28-05 at 03:26 PM
It appears that SBlows has received a source of its own! I was contacted last week regarding this and after much debate on my part, I have decided to post it and leave it open for debate here at blows. I have discussed this with a few respected others and I have received positive feedback regarding going ahead with posting it.

I can not reveal anything regarding my source, but I believe my source believes the info to be accurate. The info that they got was that BJ goes "the fourth week".

There is one problem with this....it can be interpreted two ways. 1. He could be going the fourth week, as in episode 4, or 2. He could go the fourth week he is on the island which would be anytime after day 21, which would be episode 8 or 9(both of which occur in week 4). So, there you have it, the debate is on!

Fp

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by aethelstan on 02-28-05 at 03:44 PM
Wow. cool. First we get BEG's hair spoiler and now you! Let's see if you get picked up by TDT or others on a Suvive-o-meter!

My guess? Ep. 4. That's what I have on my PTTE

Though I could see BJ being ousted circa merge too.


©Kittyloaf Creations, 2004
Winter warning in effect.

"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Krautboy on 02-28-05 at 03:52 PM
Move over Snewser, Mersaydeez, Callmecrazee, Bianca, etc... we have Flowerpower!

Thanks for sharing the info FP. You're right, based on what you're telling us, it could be either one. If Steph, Ibe and Bobby Jon are the last three Ulong, that could put Bobby Jon going in the fourth calendar week.

And if the Ulong tribe does indeed "gut itself" by voting out the strong, that would fit the scenario of Jeff going this week and Bobby Jon next week, the fourth week by episode.

We can use the information to cross Bobby Jon off the list for this week and look for editing clues that point to his vulnerability next week.



Krautboy

"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Flowerpower on 02-28-05 at 04:10 PM
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-05 AT 04:12 PM (EST)

Yes, this does gives us more to speculate on. In your confessional analysis you had ear marked Jeff and BJ with spikes in confessionals for ep 2, which you pointed out could place them both in the greatest danger. Just wanted to throw this info out to consider....let's see how it plays out in ep 3. If BJ escapes ep 3, then we have to watch for serious clues to his ep 4 boot....and if he survives ep 4, we'll watch for week 4 on the island....

I think Merceydeez has just speculated that Ashlee, BJ, and Ibe all go on vacation together....don't think I heard anything more about BJ from her...

Thanks, Fp

PS. I'd trade Snewser, Merceydeez, Callmecrazee, and Bianca for one logical German anyday!


well, maybe I'd have to think about Snewser! Ha!

"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by biancaxxx on 02-28-05 at 07:11 PM
IIRC I think Mer did say that BJ was the last Ulong male besides Ibrehem.
"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-01-05 at 11:19 AM
I think she was just inferring that because she says that Ibrehem, Ashlee and BJ all went on vacation together. Here are some quotes from Mersaydeez:

Bobby Jon, Ashlee and Ibrehem (all late merge I'm sure) went to Australia.

and, referring to Stephenie's competitor in the fire-building challenge:

Ibrehem or Ashlee or Bobby Jon (not all 3). Probably Ibrehem vs Stephenie.

Since Ashlee left already, all of her spec here is questionable. But I do think it's more likely that BJ leaves in Week 4 than in Episode 4.



Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Wheezy on 02-28-05 at 05:27 PM

Good job, FP!

Wheeze

Wheeze * Everything In Between

"Awesome"
Posted by jkokoj on 03-01-05 at 11:31 AM
Thanks for the info Flower...I really like BJ but find that he probably will go week 4.


"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by RudyRules on 03-01-05 at 08:38 PM
Good job FP!

All bow before the power of Flower!

"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-01-05 at 08:55 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-01-05 AT 08:57 PM (EST)

Gee, Rudy, you've turned this flower into a blushing one! I just want to remind everyone that there is no way I can possibly confirm this source and the info, and therefore this should definately be taken with a very large grain of salt! Something that we keep on the BACK burner.

If it turns out that it indeed fits, than well done to our SOURCE!!!!


Right back at you Rudy, you ole devil!

"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by tribephyl on 03-02-05 at 05:07 AM
FlowerPower couldn't be a more fitting name.
"Power to the Flower!"

I love that SB has taken a big step forward this year.
In the spoiling arena.

As far as the "fourth week?" stuff. I tend to believe in the, "circa day 28" moreso than the "episode 4", as far as BJ's demise.
BJ and Ibe seem to be taking the quiet supervisory role. UTR but still in complete contact. It speaks volumes.

It's been somewhat hidden in the show, but after subsequent viewings ... Stephenie is always shown in a votingstrategy talk with BJ. I tend to believe that BJ and Ibe are in the same "keep a strong tribe", "vote for the weak" voting camp.
BJ and Stephenie have voted with each other both times. Ibe has been the only one to give the "warning" vote.
He did it in episode one with angie. He did it in episode 2 with Kim.
The thing about that is, people will start to notice that his votes are more "gut-feeling" then the "normal" stick-with-the-tribe feel.
If anyone gets a target painted on them sooner, between Ibe / BJ. It's Ibe!

BJ is here for a while.


Sn'DCS©MMIV
I will begin to make the preparations for eating crow.

"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Corvis on 03-02-05 at 09:54 AM
Actually, in episode one BJ and Ibe voted with Jolanda against Angie, while Steph joined the majority and voted against Jolanda. I thinK Steph wants BJ on her side, but he's got his own way of thinking and will vote as he sees fit. My impression is Steph is probably getting frustrated with him. In episode one, he won't vote against Jo and instead wants to boot Angie. And in episode 2, he won't break up the power couple of Kim and Jeff. And in fact doesn't seem to get why they'd be a problem later on despite Steph's best efforts to explain it to him. It would not surprise me at all if Steph and her alliance get frustrated with BJ and boot him when they have a chance.
"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 03-02-05 at 01:08 PM
My thoughts exactly Corvis ... you took the words right out of my mouth and did so very eloquently...


"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Corvis on 03-02-05 at 01:56 PM
Thanks, Scarlett.
"I think it's next week and here's why...."
Posted by emydi on 03-03-05 at 09:55 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-05 AT 10:14 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-03-05 AT 10:10 AM (EST)

Ok, FP, if your source says "BJ goes the fourth week " I think that would mean ep. 4, we never talk about Survivor real time in weeks, rather by days, he goes on day 21, etc.

Another reason is because of other info. from Merseydeez that Willard and Angie go in the double TC Ep. 5. Also, if Merseydeez is to be believed and all of Ulong goes before merge but Steph, then BJ could never make it to week 4 or day 28 on the island.

Here is a timeline of sorts (I'm not sure if this is right, so please chime in and correct me if I've gotten anything wrong)

Ep. 1 Days 1-3 Jonathan Wanda Jolanda out 17 survivors left
Ep. 2 Days 4-6 Ashlee out 16 survivors left
Ep. 3 Days 7-9 Jeff?? out 15 survivors left
Ep. 4 Days 10-12 BJ out 14 survivors left

Ep. 5 Day 13 (I'm going to say they are going to do it all in one day again, plus they NEED to make up time ETA: I looked at the story board again and it IS a ONE DAY EP.) Angie and Willard Out 12 survivors left

Ep. 6 Days 14-16 Kim?? (poss.James) out 11 survivors left
Ep. 7 Days 17-19 James?? out 10 survivors left

Ep. 8 Days 21-22 Ib out bc Steph wins fire challenge NO TC therefore only 2 day show--9 survivors (the 7 jurors and 2 finalist) left

Ep. 9 MERGE Days 23-25 Caryn?? out 8 survivors left
Ep. 10 Days 26-28 Janu?? out 7 survivors left
Ep. 11 Days 29-31 Steph?? out 6 survivors left

Ep. 11 would start the "fourth week" on the island
I do not think BJ would make it this far even if Merseydeez is off a bit, he would be the first juror bc of his strength. Even if he would win II during Ep. 9, usually the mask breaking challenge is in the second ep. past the merge and they will not let BJ win that...so he would be gone in Ep. 10 at the latest, IMHO


Ep. 12 Days 32-35 Tom?? out 5 survivors left
Ep. 13 Day 36 (somehow this will be 2 or 3 days) Gregg??out 4 survivors left
Ep. 14 Days 37-39 FINAL FOUR SHOW....

I think what happens is that tonite in ep. 3 BJ and Steph lock horns about booting Jeff or Kim and Steph gets the votes (she may even get Kim to vote for Jeff to save her own skin) with her James Angie and Ib/Kim

Then next week in. Ep. 4 Steph wants BJ gone bc she wants to be leader...

Then come Ep. 5 when Koror supposedly gets to vote out a Ulong member they have to CHOOSE FROM:

ANGIE STEPH JAMES IBE KIM

Steph is not going anywhere bc Tom/Katie/Ian "alliance"
Ibe is supposed to be sick or maybe they do not see him as a threat
James--maybe seen as alliance buddy with Steph.
Kim..not seen as a threat

ANGIE--who is doing really well in the challenges is seen as the STRONGEST by Koror and how ironic for Angie, she is ousted bc she is TOO strong after being the last one chosen--EPMB loves story lines like that and I think he is editing these early shows along those lines...

My question, do all the Korors get to vote or is it a GROUP consensus??? IF they all get to vote is it unanimous and if it
is, I'd hate to be Coby when Angie gets a hold of him!!! ETA: But as suggested by Loree on the EP. 5 title thread, maybe Coby convinces them to vote her off because she is mad at him and he does not want to meet her again....

Therefore, I think BJ has to go next week and not post-merge...



"RE: I think it's next week and here's why...."
Posted by forehead on 03-03-05 at 10:19 AM
Great post, emy! This makes a lot of sense (certainly the pre-merge part).
"RE: I think it's next week and here's why...."
Posted by television on 03-03-05 at 10:46 AM
I think it's next week's episode too. But... "fourth week" could be anywhere from day 21 to day 28, right? ie. "first week" is day 1-7, "second week" is day 8-14, "third week" is day 15-21... so plausibly, he doesn't have to last to day 28 to be "fourth week"... he could be out day 22 where you have Ibe losing the challenge to Steph.

"Ok, maybe it IS the FOURTH week on the ISLAND and here's why...."
Posted by emydi on 03-03-05 at 11:25 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-05 AT 12:47 PM (EST)

Thanks tv you are right so if thats the case then BJ could go during WEEK 4

If both the Kim before Angie and Angie and Willard go in double TC ep. 5 spoilers are to be believed then Jeff would already have to be gone too imo because Jeff would likely be Koror's choice to boot...see Bebo's excellent analysis here and PLUS I WANT JEFF TO BE GONE tonight (hey, at least I'm being honest that I sometimes try to fit the spoilers into WHO I want gone )

So we have if JEFF GOES TONITE we can still fit it into all spoilers:

Ep. 3: Jeff Days 7-9
Ep. 4: Kim Days 10-12 (out before Angie)
Ep. 5: Willard/Angie Day 13
Ep. 6: James Days 14-16
Ep. 7: Ibe Days 17-19 (et change..whoops thx Pepe)(Ibe is still late pre-merge)
Ep. 8: BJ loses to Steph in fire challenge(no TC??) days 20-22 which PER tv would in fact be during the beginning of the "fourth week" on the island...

ETA QUERY: HOW MANY DAYS is Ep. 8 and when do they make up the other time???

OR we could have this scenario where BJ does leave next week and the two Mersaydeez spoilers are still in tact:

Ep. 3: Kim (out before Angie)
Ep. 4: BJ (out in week 4 of the SHOW)

BUT WHY BJ and not JEFF HERE??? This I can't understand....
ETA: If Kim goes tonite, I think it most likely will be Jeff next, I cannot come up with any reasoning that Steph et al. would boot BJ over Jeff...and if its Jeff tonite then it has to be Kim next week and therefore BJ goes in the "fourth week" on the island

Ep. 5: Willard Angie (maybe they see Jeff's injuries are bad and don't want him gone)
Ep. 6: Jeff (Koror doesn't pick Jeff bc of his "injury" but when Ulong goes back to TC they immediately vote him out)
Ep. 7: James
Ep. 8: Ibe loses to Steph in fire challenge


Or We could have BJ out still in Fourth week on island and the 2 spoilers are still ok

Ep. 3: Kim (out befroe Angie)
Ep. 4: Jeff
Ep. 5: Willard and Angie
Ep. 6: James
Ep. 7: Ibe (Ibe late pre-merge)
Ep. 8: BJ loses to Steph

So what we really need to KNOW is who loses to STEPH!! and then it will fall into place...


So from all the spoilers we "KNOW" :

Kim goes in Ep. 3 or 4
Jeff goes in Ep. 3, 4 or 6
Willard and Angie go in Ep. 5
James goes in Ep. 6 or 7
Ibe goes in Ep. 7 or 8
BJ goes in Ep. 47 or 8

ETA: If Kim goes tonite, I think it most likely will be Jeff next, I cannot come up with any reasoning that Steph et al. would boot BJ over Jeff...and if its Jeff tonite then it has to be Kim next week and therefore BJ goes in the "fourth week" on the island and not Ep. 4. Therefore tonite it's either Jeff or Kim and next week's it's the other...

As KB stated in the Mersaydeez thread, the timing may be a bit off and BJ could go in Ep. 7--FP--can you give us any more info that will not jeopardize your source?


So Stan, BR, KB, Fester and other logicians....who goes when and am I off base here???


"RE: Ok, maybe it IS the FOURTH week on the ISLAND and here's why...."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 03-03-05 at 11:30 AM
Just go ahead and copy my outline in the post below...

One problem with the first timeline you've outlined is that Episode 7 is 3 days and would be Days 17-19 and Episode 8 would have to be a normal 3 day episode running from Days 20-22 and if Bobby Jon leaves "in the fourth week" then it would mean he'd have to lose to Stephenie on the 22nd day (third day of episode 8).

>Ep. 3: Jeff Days 7-9
>Ep. 4: Kim Days 10-12 (out before Angie)
>Ep. 5: Willard/Angie Day 13
>Ep. 6: James/Ibe Days 14-16
>Ep. 7: Ibe/James Days 17-20



Scratch and sniff
"RE: Ok, maybe it IS the FOURTH week on the ISLAND and here's why...."
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-03-05 at 01:09 PM
Yes, Pepe, the way I interpreted the calendar from the challenge board spoiler, I also had the first ep in "week 4" as episode 8, which would have TC for ep 8 on the 22nd day out there....


"RE: Ok, maybe it IS the FOURTH week on the ISLAND and here's why...."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 03-03-05 at 01:36 PM
My problem with this wording is that I know very few people who actually refers to time as in the fourth week when they mean 22 days. For example, I tell people that my son is 25 months old, not "in his 26th month" if you know what I mean.

And my experience from watching past Survivors is that the contestants almost always refer it as days -- "we're here for 39 days" or "it's now day 30" etc. There have been times when we were shown them counting off the number of days by scratching it into a tree trunk or something like that in groups of five for easier counting of days. I've never seen them count in weeks.

I still believe that if the spoiler is true, we're talking about the fourth week as in the fourth episode. I'll be glad to be proven wrong as I think Bobby Jon is more valuable to be kept around by Ulong than an injured Jeff or an ineffective Kim.



Scratch and sniff

"RE: I think it's next week and here's why...."
Posted by Brownroach on 03-03-05 at 10:51 AM
Mersaydeez is saying that Kim leaves before Angie. So if BJ leaves in Ep 4, Kim would have to leave tonight.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

"RE: I think it's next week and here's why...."
Posted by emydi on 03-03-05 at 11:03 AM
Well that throws a wrench into things doesn't it....

Hmmmm...maybe Jeff and Kim pull a Romeo and Juliet tonite..what?!?..it could happen


I'll have to think about this more...

"RE: I think it's next week and here's why...."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 03-03-05 at 11:10 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-05 AT 11:36 AM (EST)

I agree that your scenario makes a lot of sense, emy, and I also believe that they would normally talk in Survivor time (i.e. Day 21) not "fourth week on the island" ... but let's work with what television and BR said in replying to your post, here's an alternative plan:


Ep. 1 Days 1-3 Jonathan Wanda Jolanda out, 17 survivors left
Ep. 2 Days 4-6 Ashlee out, 16 survivors left
Ep. 3 Days 7-9 Jeff out, 15 survivors left
Ep. 4 Days 10-12 Kim out, 14 survivors left
Ep. 5 Day 13 Angie and Willard out, 12 survivors left
Ep. 6 Days 14-16 James or Ibrehem out, 11 survivors left
Ep. 7 Days 17-19 Ibrehem or James out, 10 survivors left
Ep. 8 Days 20-22 Bobby Jon out as Stephenie wins fire challenge - 9 survivors (the 7 jurors and 2 finalist) left

Edited to fix timeline for episode 8. It would have to be a normal 3-day episode if Bobby Jon lasts that long and satisfies his staying until the fourth week, Day 22.

The above scenario would satisfy the Mersaydeez spoiler that Kim goes before Angie, but also that Jeff could get booted (or quit) after being injured tonight. I can see Kim going right after Jeff if she gets into a snit about the tribe booting her snuggle bunny.

Naaah, I like BJ in the 4th episode better because of the angle of having to stretch out Episode 8 without a TC, but the above can work, I think.



Scratch and sniff

"RE: I think it's next week and here's why...."
Posted by emydi on 03-03-05 at 11:29 AM
Correct Pepe... see my post 20 above...I was writing the same thing before I read this post of yours....whaddya think of my four possible scenarios..

KB and BR.. what exactly has Mersaydeez said about Ibe or BJ being the one to lose to Steph???


"RE: I think it's next week and here's why...."
Posted by Brownroach on 03-03-05 at 11:45 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-05 AT 12:02 PM (EST)

The way I read Mersaydeez' posts about Ibrehem, I gather that she was told that he goes late pre-merge. She admits that she does not know that he is the one to compete in the final challenge against Stephenie; but she is "guessing" it is him. So I think her guess may be based simply on the fact that she was told Ibrehem goes late pre-merge.

She also said at one point she was "sure" that Bobby Jon and Ashlee were late pre-merge boots as well; however, she seems to have based that on the fact that they went on vacation with Ibrehem, who she was told was a late pre-merge boot.

I don't believe she was initially given any info on which of the pre-merge boots leaves when, except for Ibrehem (and she only knows that he leaves "late").

As for Fp's spoiler, I would say it depends on where the info is coming from. If it's traceable back to someone connected with the show, I'd say it's more likely referring to Episode 4. If it's traceable back to Bobby Jon, he may have said that he left the game during his fourth week on the island.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

"RE: I think it's next week and here's why...."
Posted by emydi on 03-03-05 at 01:53 PM
But they would have to "stretch" out Ep. 8 to 3 days...they would have already had that factored into the timeline and they would be stuck with it...they had no idea that a TC would not be required in Ep. 8 bc there were only 2 Ulong left and they lose the IC....they must make the time up post merge...

I just don't see how if Kim goes this week that BJ would be booted before Jeff next week, so I'm going with the "fourth week" on the island...it really depends on who the source is--if it isn't a "survivor" then maybe they would talk in weeks not days....


"Not to quibble..."
Posted by FesterFan1 on 03-03-05 at 11:26 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-05 AT 11:39 AM (EST)

...because I believe it's much more likely that BJ goes in E4 rather than the fourth week in real time, but Week 4 on the island would've started on Day 22, not Day 29.

Week 1: Days 1-7
Week 2: Days 8-14
Week 3: Days 15-21
Week 4: Days 22-28

So, by your painstaking estimates, that would mean BJ would have to make it to the alleged "Fire Starter" episode where Steph beats out Ibrehem to make it to Week 4 of the game.

So, it's not impossible, but it does contradict Mersaydeez.

ETA: It turns out it doesn't contradict Mersaydeez. Ibrehem's involvement in the fire starter challenge was speculated since he goes late pre-jury. So, I guess it is quite possible for BJ to make it to the fourth week on the island. Hmmm....

Fester

"RE: Not to quibble..."
Posted by emydi on 03-03-05 at 11:43 AM
Right Fester...I realized that, I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed sometimes

SO what we really need to know is WHO LOSES TO STEPH???


"RE: Not to quibble..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-03-05 at 12:43 PM
Excellent speculation emy! This is why I decided to go ahead and post this....we need to dissect it! Keep it up!

As for my thoughts, I am firmly in the he "goes the 4th week" camp, as in he goes AFTER day 21......fwiw.


"So am I now...."
Posted by emydi on 03-03-05 at 12:51 PM
See my edited post 20 above

Can you give us any more info on the timing?? KB thinks BJ could go in Ep. 7 and Ibe in Ep. 8 vs. Steph in fire and still be "close" to your "fourth week" timing.

We need a good firm timeline too--are there any spoilers out there (except for the challenge board that limits Ep. 5 to 1 day) to show where else they shorten the time btw boots? They still need to make up time to fit within 39 days.


"RE: Not to quibble..."
Posted by FesterFan1 on 03-03-05 at 02:43 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-05 AT 02:44 PM (EST)

I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed sometimes

Neither am I, apparently, considering I was only the third person to mention it. I guess I should take my own advice and read the thread before posting. I certainly didn't mean to dogpile on you about it.

Regarding BJ v. Ibrehem, it makes more sense in terms of current Ulong tribal dynamics that BJ should outlast Ibrehem. That said, this tribe hasn't shown a real penchant for logic, and, based on the current state of relations within Ulong, there seems to be something brewing among James, Angie and Stephenie. So somehow those three must get dissolved (perhaps at E5's TC where Koror may boot/help boot Angie or James), because the way I read the tribe it's Angie, James, and Stephenie on the same page vis-a-vis Kim and Jeff, with BJ and Ibrehem wandering around cluelessly and unaligned.

Maybe, once Jeff's gone, the band of three will shift priority, or turn on each other. If TC visits become a ritual for this group, as has been reported, any number of things could happen. When you spend the majority of your time wondering about who to vote out next, it makes it difficult to maintain a flimsy alliance (which is how I would categorize the Angie/James/Steph trifecta in its current state).

Fester

"RE: Not to quibble..."
Posted by Thumper on 03-04-05 at 02:45 AM
Another wrinkle is that (unless EPM is screwing with us again by editing out an entire day as in Ep.1) Ep.3 was a 2-day episode.
If Ep.5 (double boot) is truly a 1-day episode as shown on the storyboard (and if there's only 1 challenge, that's entirely plausible), all the extra days needed for all the boots are accounted for...
4 extra people
2 gone in the "pick-em"
1 gone in the double-boot episode
Extra episode with a 2-day and 1 day episode in the mix.
That means that Episode 8 (last non-jury boot) should take place during Day 19-21, meaning that even the last non-jury bootee will be "close, but no cigar" to a 4th week.

What we have here is a classic case of two pieces of spoiler information that are mutually exclusive. Both cannot be true.
If Merseydeez is correct, Kim will be going in Ep.4 (goes before Angie, who goes in the double boot Ep.5), and BJ can't last until "week 4" because that would put him on the jury, and she has only Steph from Ulong on the jury.

If FP's source is correct, either he's booted over Kim next week (an act of suicidal stupidity that absolutely defies logic) or he makes the jury (replacing, or alongside Stephenie).

I find it impossible to believe that even the idiots on Ulong would boot BJ and keep Kim another week, so it comes down to which of the two spoilers has the goods on the composition of the jury.

~ When's all been said and done, far more will have been said than done. ~

"RE: Not to quibble..."
Posted by Krautboy on 03-04-05 at 03:08 AM
Greetings Thumper!

Nice to have you spoiling here at SBlows! Your insights are a welcome addition...


Krautboy

"RE: Not to quibble..."
Posted by Thumper on 03-04-05 at 03:20 AM
Good to see ya, KB.

I'd heard that Blows was the source for the BJ spoiler and had to come over to see what it was all about. And I figured the best way to get myself up to speed would be to read your posts, since we so often seem to share a brain in our thought processes. ;)

~ When's all been said and done, far more will have been said than done. ~

"RE: Not to quibble..."
Posted by Brownroach on 03-04-05 at 10:29 AM
Hi Thumper!

Bobby Jon is, if anything, the safest person on Ulong right now, I'd have to say. No way is he going next week. So we'll have to monitor the timeline and see what's happening as we get close to week 4.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

"RE: Not to quibble..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-04-05 at 10:16 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-04-05 AT 10:19 AM (EST)

What we have here is a classic case of two pieces of spoiler information that are mutually exclusive. Both cannot be true.

Yes, Thumper, I agree with you. While Merceydeez indeed has found a source with definite inside info, I am not quick to disregard Snewser's comment regarding that in the end, all will be wrong....or something like that.

I continue to get more information regarding BJ, and now I question if week 4 means lasting at least to day 22, or if week 4 could mean he lasts at least to day 28? From the info that I am receiving, I am leaning toward it meaning that BJ just may make the jury.

As I have noted in the above thread, there is no way for me to confirm this information. Be skeptical all you want, but don't quite dismiss it as false, until it is proven false. Keep it on the very back burner. Sometimes, where there is smoke, there is fire...

ETA: Welcome to Blows, Thumper! Always welcome your 2 cents here!

"RE: Not to quibble..."
Posted by LeftPinky on 03-04-05 at 10:54 AM
Hey FP

Any idea of how long the survivors were on site prior to the game beginning? Perhaps the 4th week is in reference to the amount of time the survivors have been there - it could add several days, thus BJ makes the 4th week could be day 20 or 21 of filming.

Back to the original siggie!

"RE: Not to quibble..."
Posted by biancaxxx on 03-05-05 at 10:58 PM
This is how I was told it went
Day 1 arrive on island
Day 2 press interviews etc
Day 3/Survivor Day 1-game starts...landing ...finding water...building shelter...etc
Day 4/Survivor Day-2 same
Day 5/Survivor Day-3 tribes/ic/tc
etc...
"BJ on the jury.."
Posted by emydi on 03-04-05 at 11:48 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-04-05 AT 11:56 AM (EST)


After the last two weeks, I sure hope he makes the jury, FP!!!

Thumper is correct about the timeline..Ep. 3 was a 2 day episode, Jeff said he thought there would be another day before the IC and then at end of TC Jiffy said you've been here 8 days...

Another possibility is that the double episode is 2 days long, see here for the spoiler board that has Ep. 5 as being a 2 day episode.. thus Ep. 8 would be Days 20-22 and the "fourth week" day 22 would be in Ep. 8 and he could lose to Steph there and just miss the jury. Then day 23, Ep. 9, would be the merge after Steph sleeps alone (not Ep. 10 or she would have to sleep alone for 4 days) and as KB reminded me...Jiffy seemed to mention something about the merge happening on day 23....they could make up the other day after merge


eta link

"RE: BJ on the jury.."
Posted by Thumper on 03-04-05 at 12:19 PM
>LAST EDITED ON 03-04-05
>AT 11:56 AM (EST)
>
>Another possibility is that the double
>episode is 2 days long,
>see here for the spoiler
>board that has Ep. 5
>as being a 2 day
> episode.. thus Ep. 8
>would be Days 20-22 and
>the "fourth week" day 22
>would be in Ep. 8
>and he could lose to
>Steph there and just miss
>the jury. Then day
>23, Ep. 9, would be
>the merge after Steph sleeps
>alone (not Ep. 10 or
>she would have to sleep
>alone for 4 days)

That's certainly a thought...
That little card at the top of Ep.5 that says "x Day Episode" is hard to read. Could be 1 day, could be 2 day. With only a single challenge, it could easily take place in a single day.
What has me thinking that it's 1 day is that for it to be a 2-day episode, there has to be yet another 2-day episode in order to fit it all within the 39-day schedule. In looking at the storyboard pics, I don't see any other episode with a "x day episode" strip at the top of it.
The only one that even has a possibility of that is the upcoming Ep.4 that has a lot of stuff at the top of the column... but none of the word strings have the word length patterns (they're illegible in most of the caps) that would fit with a "x day episode" card there.

~ When's all been said and done, far more will have been said than done. ~

"RE: BJ on the jury.."
Posted by katethegreat on 03-07-05 at 01:31 PM
Was there a note in Episode 3 about it being a two day episode?

I'm just wondering if we have a few more episodes (not just one, but three or four) that are two days or four days? Maybe MB has thrown the standard three days partly out the window, to keep the survivors (and spoilers) off balance. He could still end up at the same place. So BJ could make it to Day 22 (week 4) without making the jury, by putting in a four day episode before Day 22, that is later caught back up with a two day episode. Maybe the only exception is one one-day episode, that is specifically noted on the storyboard . . . Anyway, we shouldn't make too many assumptions on length of episode, since we now already have two exceptions (3 being two days, and 5 looking like one day).

I agree with many that isn't a chance in the world that Ulong would boot BJ this week. Not only is he strong in the challenges, he a workhorse around camp.

"RE: BJ on the jury.."
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 03-04-05 at 12:31 PM
After the last two weeks, I sure hope he makes the jury, FP!!!

Here, here!!! My sentiments exactly! As long as we've still got him ... let's flaunt him!



BJ put the "B" in Beefcake, baby!

"RE: BJ on the jury.."
Posted by TanNymph on 03-04-05 at 12:46 PM
Total agreement dear Scarlet!!!
"RE: BJ on the jury.."
Posted by sylvester on 03-05-05 at 11:26 AM

You forgot this one Scarlett.


Please call me Cat!!
(suddenly wishing I was 20 yrs younger and lived in Alabama)

"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Chez on 03-04-05 at 06:45 AM
It just seems unfathomable to me that BJ would be voted out at the next episode after his Herculean efforts at the water tag challenge. He was carrying 80 pounds!! His team can't possibly be stupid enough to get rid of him next.
"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by ADKer on 03-04-05 at 09:35 AM
If BJ goes to visit, or stay, with Koror as a result of the switch, it could lead to his boot. What if Koror is allowed to choose someone because of the failure of Ulong to decide? If I was on Koror and had to pick a player from Ulong, I would want to deprive them of BJ. On the other hand, if I was Ulong, I would want to send Kim to the other team. Just some speculation...
"RE: Possible Clue"
Posted by montanagirl on 03-04-05 at 12:22 PM
Hi all...

Speculating on E4 boot...watching the intro on E3 last night, I noticed that Kim's name moved to a new location on the screen when her second pic came up. Everyone else's name stayed in the same spot for both photos.

Initially I thought this meant that she would be the E3 boot, but obviously not.

Could this be a clue to next week's boot?
Was I just hallucinating? Or did anyone else catch this?

-montanagirl

"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 03-05-05 at 11:05 AM
Judging from this ... http://survivorthoughts.blogspot.com
it looks as if Corvis is on board ...

"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by redbeard103152 on 03-05-05 at 02:55 PM
From the uptick in face time and the challenge superstar statis he is gaining I too think BJ will go as far as any Ulong male can go. After the Jeff boot they would be have to be total idiots to boot him now when so many other choices are available.Week four and not episode four is looking better than ever for FP's spoiler.
RedBeard
"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by pax on 03-07-05 at 02:16 AM
One thought that I haven't seen in the speculation on why Angie -- and not BJ or Ibe -- would be voted out during the double-boot episode: what about the prospect that one or more members of the losing team could have immunity?
"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Loree on 03-07-05 at 09:13 AM
I wonder if BJ might be spared by Koror out of respect. Tom and Ian seem like the type that although they are playing the game. They are honorable. They may realize how hard BJ is trying and feel bad booting him while useless players like Kim are still around. Also they may consider Angie a dirty player. She may have made some enemies dunking them in that challenge. I could see the Koror tribe deciding to let the one player that deserves to be there stay while voting out Angie who they maybe don't admire as much. It might not be the smart move. But Survivors are known for thinking with their hearts when they should do the mean thing and get rid of the biggest competition.
"Nice Loree"
Posted by emydi on 03-07-05 at 10:14 AM
I like this reasoning...Tom is a Man among men and Ian is a boy among dolphins
and I agree Angie is making Koror mad...


"RE: Nice Loree"
Posted by Loree on 03-07-05 at 12:18 PM
Well I just remember BJ showed so much respect for Tom at TC. And it might be mutual.
"RE: BJ Spoiler Information"
Posted by Devious Weasel on 03-07-05 at 01:01 PM
I'm thinking that only one member of each tribe gets to vote at the other TC and that same person has immunity at their own TC. So, BJ either might have immunity or Ulong might be down to Angie, Steph, James, Ibe, and BJ and while the person from Koror is more than willing to vote out BJ and Angie at this point is probably willing to vote with them, the other four are voting for Angie.


"30 days?"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-07-05 at 11:21 AM
Re Corvis' spec that BJ lasts until F7:

If the timeline is caught up to normal by that point, the 7th place boot will occur on Day 30. That's two days over four weeks in the game. However, 30 days is often thought of as equivalent to one month, and one month as equivalent to four weeks.

So if BJ got booted in 7th place, Fp's source's info could be correct in the sense that BJ left after four full weeks in the game. Maybe.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

"Article on Bobby Jon"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-10-05 at 05:48 PM
in a Troy, Alabama newspaper:

http://www.troymessenger.com/articles/2005/03/10/news/newsss04.txt

Here's the interesting thing:

"Bobby Jon came home from Australia in December, right after they had filmed the show," she (Bobby Jon's grandmother) said. "He had lost 20 pounds and he ate like he was starving to death."

So a) he lost 20 pounds and ate ravenously when he got back. But b) she says he came back from Australia. That's where Mersaydeez said BJ went on vacation with Ibrehem and Ashlee.

I know they always used to bring all the contestants back on the same flight, including the LLers. Do they still do that, do we have any idea?

I did some googling on the air routes to Palau. Palau is not really near Australia as it turns out; it is north of Papua New Guinea and fairly close to the Philippines. Here is info on getting there from the USA:

North America
From the west coast of United States, there are a couple of ways to get to Palau. To Honolulu, Hawaii is a quick five hours and then seven hours to Guam. The flights between Guam and Palau are less than two hours. If you prefer going through Asia, you can fly to Japan, Guam and then Palau. Fly from the U.S. West Coast to Hong Kong, Guam and then Palau, or fly to Taipei, Taiwan and connect to twice-weekly charter flights to Palau.

To get to Palau from Australia:

Australia
Continental Airlines flies between Cairns and Guam twice weekly and daily from Guam to Palau. Fly from any major cities in Australia to Cairns to make your connection to Palau. Most carriers service Manila, which connects with Continental Airlines' twice-weekly flights to Palau.

-----------------------------------------

The main hook-up point seems to be Guam, which connects to flights from both Hawaii and Australia. Going by way of Australia would seem to be taking the long way around. But -- if they had sent some of the LLer's to Australia for vacation, perhaps they flew everyone else there as well when the game was over, and then departed for the US.

Anyway, we have a weight loss spoiler for BJ now -- but also another detail that maybe supports the Mersaydeez spoiler...



Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

"RE: Article on Bobby Jon"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-14-05 at 01:10 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-05 AT 01:12 PM (EST)

I agree with you, BR. I am not sure if the "he returned from Australia", is significant or not. Certainly raised my eyebrows.
Twenty pounds off of a seemingly fit young male is very significant, indicating that he goes far.

I wanted to make light of the speculation that bobscure has made here, see post number 23. It sounds like a very plausible solution that would fit the "he goes the fourth week", would fit with Mersaydeez spoiler, would fit with hints in the Snewser game of Jump the Shark, would fit with how Angie is voted out before BJ(if Koror votes at TC in Ep 5), and it could perhaps satisfy the Corvis spoiler of making it at least to F7.

"RE: Article on Bobby Jon"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-14-05 at 01:32 PM
I dug up Mersaydeez quotes about the fire-building challenge. The most definitive one says:

All I know (and I've repeated this many times), Stephenie wins a crucial fire starting challenge to make the jury (or maybe it was merge, but I heard "jury" specifically - meaning it could be a late merge), and the other Ulong goes on vacation. Then I would assume that Stephenie merges with the other 9 Korors after spending the night all alone in her tribe of one."

Suppose the winner of the challenge (Stephenie) does merge after the night spent all alone, but there are still ten people left at that point? i.e. Stephenie *does* make the jury, but it's after one more person gets booted.

It could work this way: Koror steals Bobby Jon when they dump Willard; Angie gets dumped as well. Then Ulong loses the next two IC's; James goes, then we have the fire-building challenge and Ibrehem goes. Steph is the only person on Ulong.

Then follows the merge, with ten people left (actually I think Stephenie gets subsumed into Koror -- why create a whole new tribe just for one person? That would be my explanation for the green buff that never got used). Bobby Jon loses the first individual IC and is the first merge boot, and goes to LL and on to Australia.

That would put BJ out of the game during week 4, I think. Though there's no way Corvis and Mersaydeez can both be correct about BJ.



Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

"Sera"
Posted by forehead on 03-14-05 at 01:55 PM
Recent post by Sera at Legion (forum at Chatter)

http://p072.ezboard.com/fsurvivorchatterfrm153.showMessageRange?topicID=162.topic&start=71&stop=71

***Start copy of post***

Seraphaem
The Ghost With The Most
Man Of Mystery
I'm not Seraphaem. Really.
Once you go pale,
it never gets stale.
You can trust me
King of the Spoliers
Posts: 2449
(3/13/05 9:05 pm)
Reply
ezSupporter

Re: Thank you, Sera!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I LUV TIJUANA
Registered User
(3/13/05 9:25 pm)
Reply
ezSupporter

Re: Just some spoilers...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I have a STRONG feeling that it's a two girl final two. Jenn/Katie or Janu/Katie?

Anyways, the Bobby Jon thing was fake. It was the work of the lovely Seraphaem, he returned to work this week. :|
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

From what I hear, Janu makes it to the F2 and wins a car. What the Hell do I know anyway.

S.

***End copy of post***

Sera quotes ILT at Sucks. Basically, ILT says that the BJ spoiler was Sera's work. As Devious Weasel earlier here at SB pointed out (sorry no time to find the link), this info was reported by FOUR different people. So, FP, Corvis, ILT and somebody else (?) all received this piece of info. Now, why don't FP and Corvis compare some notes...

For those who haven't read it yet, Corvis did a marvelous job of last ep's confessional analysis, which also happens to contradict the info he received about BJ...

(info at Survivor Thoughts)

PS Welcome back Sera! Hope you're doing well. Sera, at the risk of asking too specific a question (no offense meant), do you happen to know why Mersaydeez chose to share her info, one day after you announced that you were going to take a break?


Close but no car...

"RE: Sera"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-14-05 at 02:36 PM
From what I hear, Janu makes it to the F2 and wins a car. What the Hell do I know anyway.

S.

That is onThe Game's website:

Janu Tornell -- A 39 year old Las Vegas show girl. She was featured on Inside Edition where she swapped jobs for a day. What is the connection with Bai? Great first episode! Great second episode! Her lies will eventually catch up with her, especially how she does Tom. The players who vote, won't forget. No player has ever won the vehicle challenge and won The Game. Rob was close.

I suppose this info came from sera, too, then.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

"RE: Sera"
Posted by Corvis on 03-14-05 at 02:42 PM
FWIW, I don't think Sera is the source of my BJ info. It could still be a hoax, I just don't think it's Sera who is behind it.

Also, FP and I do not appear to have the same source.

"I suppose this info came from sera, too, then."

Or Sera heard it from the Game.

"RE: Sera"
Posted by forehead on 03-14-05 at 03:08 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-14-05 AT 03:29 PM (EST)

"FWIW, I don't think Sera is the source of my BJ info. It could still be a hoax, I just don't think it's Sera who is behind it.
Also, FP and I do not appear to have the same source."

Thanks for clarifying that, Corvis!

forehead

ETA: FP, check your PM inbox

"RE: Sera"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-14-05 at 03:20 PM
I firmly do not believe that Sera is my source as well. Remember, that I sat on the info that I had for a bit.


forehead, check your pm box!

"RE: Sera"
Posted by Seraphaem on 03-14-05 at 03:27 PM
I have no comment at this time for the above questions, only to say that it's great to be back.

S.

"RE: Sera"
Posted by forehead on 03-14-05 at 03:35 PM
Welcome back, Sera! Thanks for the "no comment"...

forehead

"RE: Sera"
Posted by Mersaydeez on 03-14-05 at 04:21 PM
forehead,

"do you happen to know why Mersaydeez chose to share her info, one day after you announced that you were going to take a break?"

I know that was a question for Sera, but I can answer this. It was just a coincidence. Nothing exciting.

"RE: Sera"
Posted by forehead on 03-14-05 at 04:28 PM
Thanks, Mersaydeez! And congrats on a stellar spoiling start so far!

forehead

"RE: Sera"
Posted by Seraphaem on 03-14-05 at 04:32 PM
I concur with Mer, merely coincidence and nothing more. I like both Mersaydeez and Bianca a great deal and in no way are they connected to my organization.

S.

"Bumping, post ep 6"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-25-05 at 08:33 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-25-05 AT 08:38 AM (EST)

As we approach episode 7 I thought I'd bump this back. At this point we have a very reliable spoiler that indicates Steph will make the merge. So, since we know Ulong will lose the IC this week, we have 2 choices, BJ or IBE. Mersaydeez never got direct information stating who the ep 7 boot would be.

I noted that on the TDT calendar, here, it is easy to see how making it to ep 8 could be considered making it to the 4th week. Especially when we know that the Survivors were on location on Oct. 31 with the press interviews. This leads me to conclude that Ibe will be our ep 7 boot. Food for thought...

"RE: Bumping, post ep 6"
Posted by gwrbassin on 03-25-05 at 11:08 AM
I wrote this in another thread but I think that after reading this one it could fit here with a few changes. What if IBE goes next and then the next day BJ is kidnaped to the other team. Steph is Alone for the night and then they have IC next day. All but 1 has to seat out so they chose BJ and he goes against Steph and loses He gets voted out and steph is merged with the others. I dont know but just throwing out a thought.
"RE: Bumping, post ep 6"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-25-05 at 12:53 PM
Welcome to Blows gw! I have thought of this idea as well. I don't know if we will see the kidnapping of a Ulong male(I'm speculating BJ too) in ep 7 or ep 8. But it could come down to BJ(representing the Koror tribe) against Steph(representing the decimated Ulong tribe) for the final tribal immunity. Steph wins and then the Koror tribe proceeds to boot the last original Ulong male left in the game....or maybe Janu!


"RE: Bumping, post ep 6"
Posted by Surviette on 03-25-05 at 01:29 PM
I like it! So, Steph would be absorbed into Koror following TC
and BJ's exit, meaning she has only spent the previous night alone. I have several questions below this post,but this clarifies to me, that BJ's kidnapping could ONLY occur in Ep8.
Otherwise, (I think) Steph would have a face-off with Ibe in Ep7
(bc BJ would be absent) and another with BJ in Ep8. Right?
"RE: Bumping, post ep 6"
Posted by gwrbassin on 03-25-05 at 02:03 PM
That is what I was thinking trying to fit all the spoilers that is out there this might work.
"RE: Bumping, post ep 6"
Posted by knuckles487 on 03-25-05 at 09:38 PM
>Welcome to Blows gw! I have
>thought of this idea as
>well. I don't know if
>we will see the kidnapping
>of a Ulong male(I'm speculating
>BJ too) in ep 7
>or ep 8. But it
>could come down to BJ(representing
>the Koror tribe) against Steph(representing
>the decimated Ulong tribe) for
>the final tribal immunity. Steph
>wins and then the Koror
>tribe proceeds to boot the
>last original Ulong male left
>in the game....or maybe Janu!


Is it possible that BJ could be kidnapped AFTER the IC this week, possibly at the TC itself, and therefore nobody actually leaves the game this week? Then next week in Neanderthal Man, Ulong loses once again, so Steph and Ibe have to go head to head in the fire building since a normal TC wouldn't work? Ibe loses, goes home, and then Steph spends one or two nights alone before being absorbed by Koror in the following episode. After the first IC of the "new" Koror they boot BJ, followed in successive weeks by Janu and then Steph.

I don't know how many episodes there are for this one, so perhaps somebody that does know could do the math and see if there are enough episodes remaining to support a "nobody leaves the game this week" theory. But I guess that would also depend on how many they get rid of in the final episode also, whether it centers around 4 players or 3, and getting down to the final two. Not sure how it would work.

"Spoilers and Questions"
Posted by Surviette on 03-25-05 at 11:13 AM
Some Spoilers
1) Steph convinces Ibe and BJ to keep her.
2) Ibe BJ and Ashlee vacation together.
3) BJ is kidnapped
4) Steph spends A night alone.
Some Questions
1)We saw Steph convince BJ to keep her,but she didn't need to convince Ibe, as he was vulnerable too. So, does this mean next time Steph convinces Ibe to keep her?
2)We assume Ibe and BJ do not make jury as they must have been cleared out of LL prior to Jury arrivals (based on past).Then, they vacation together. So, would either vacation together if either were responsible for the other's departure?
3)Could we assume BJ is rescued (ties in with SOS)and doesn't go to TC? If BJ is taken, is Ep7 the only possible Eppy this could happen?
4)If BJ is kidnapped (for one night or for good)and Ibe gets booted next, would this mean Steph would spend one night alone, or two?
ETA Why is "Pringle" Thread locked?
"RE: Spoilers and Questions"
Posted by applejack93 on 03-25-05 at 08:20 PM
The Pringle thread is probably locked because it's content fits into an already existing thread. Try raising the issue in VS' editing thread - that seems the most appropriate place for it. Threads are usually locked if they are based around an issue that has already been dealt with, or if they would fit easily into a different thread.