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Original Message
"I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-30-04 at 04:34 PM
Based on the plethora of clues we've been given all season, I am almost 99% sure that the final will breakdown like this...

Third Place = Rob
Second Place = Jenna
Winner = Amber


Here is how I came to these conclusions. As we know, Rob can only finish in third or first based on the editing clues that I explained in that other thresd. Over the past couple of episodes its become obvious that Jenna will not be winning...this is based predominantly on the extensive negative personality editing she has been receiving. Remember, this is All stars, and MB wants a winner that everyone will respect and right now, nobody watching this show respects or likes Jenna. On the other hand, she is playing the part of deserved F2 loser quite well.

Now, some people are arguing that Rob could beat Amber in the F2 or Amber could beat Rob, but I think that discussion is mute and moot because I contend that there is no way we are going to see a Romber F2, no way at all. First of all, the editing has misdirected at a Romber F2 all season long and we all know what that means. Plus, way way too much post boot convo about voting for or against Rob from the booted Survivors...makes me believe that they never actually have to make that decision since he isn't in the F2 anyway.

Also, I don't think Rob could beat Amber in the F2 and since we know that Rob can;t come in second that in itself is enough to eliminate the possibility of a Romber F2.

The main problem with all this speculation and the million dollar question in all of this is this......Does Amber win the F3 IC and dump Rob? Now, I can't rely on editing hints to make my conclusions while at the same time ignoring the biggest editing hint in the show, that being that Amber will win the F3 IC and dump Rob. We've been hit over the head with this scenario from day 1, but we've all been afraid to accept it because of the fact that Rob and Amber are still dating IRL.

But, let's look a little deeper at Mr. Mariano and think about it. Based on his conduct after getting booted in S4 we know that Rob is a very good sport about things and doesn't take things personally that occur in a contest/game. After scrambling 100% in S4 he went out with a smile and good wishes for everyone. I attribute this to the fact that he has a background in organized sports (hockey) and people with a background in sports have a much better time accepting losing than other people...but that's an argument that I'll save for a different post.

Could Rob be such a good sport that he would understand and forgive Amber for doing what she had to do and getting rid of him at F3? I guess that is the million dollar question.

The other alternative is for Jenna to win the F3 IC and get rid of Rob. This made sense a few weeks ago, but now its becoming clear that Amber may walk into the F3 as teh obvious favorite to win the jury vote so why would Jenna do this? Could it be that she is just stupid enough to do something that dumb? Possible, we've seen it before at this point in the game *cough* Lil *cough*

The final alternative is the one we've thought all along...Jenna vs Rob in the F2. But I just don't see either one of them winning the game at this point based on the editing for Jenna and the editing+bootee comments for Rob. Therefore, I am willing to rule out the Rob/Jenna F2.

I had some more thoughts, but I had to interrupt this post about 15 times to do real work so I'll come back and post stuff later as the thoughts come to me.

But, to sum up.....

Amber is gonna win, there will be no Romber F2, therfore, Amber must beat Jenna in the F2.

The only question is who wins the final IC. At this point I'm leaning towards an Amber win with the ultimate betrayal.

Plus, the finale is being hyped as having a shocking ending. What would be more shocking than Amber pulling off the biggest betrayal/move in Survivor history?

As a side note, if Amber does get rid of Rob at F3 and goes on to win she will be worthy of the title of greatest game of Survivor ever played and definitely worthy of being the All star champ.

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Crash Thompson Jr on 04-30-04 at 04:39 PM
I have to say I agree.
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by nailbone on 04-30-04 at 04:43 PM
I'll drink some of that Kool-Aid.



Cool new sig courtesy of Jslice o-

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by KObrien_fan on 04-30-04 at 04:54 PM
Count me in too Shakes, too many times we have seen Rob say how much he trust Ambah, at the beginning he was confident, and now "he thinks" she won't betray him. BUT, the best case scenario of him not winning the million falls by the wayside while he still can help Ambah spend her million. He gets the chick, she gets the dough, and they live happily ever aftah.

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by SurvivaBear on 04-30-04 at 05:08 PM
Count me in, as well. Besides, Amber has made it clear (to me at least) that although she cares for Rob, she is in this game for herself. She can certainly use the old reasoning, "Rob, I respect you and I know that if I take you with me, I will be giving away the $1,000,00." I also agree that, if she wins the final IC and dumps Rob, she certainly deserves the win more than any Survivor ever has. Finally, someone does the smart thing to win.


"plus...."
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-30-04 at 05:11 PM
>Count me in, as well.
>Besides, Amber has made it
>clear (to me at least)
>that although she cares for
>Rob, she is in this
>game for herself.


...as Amber said last night in confessional, "this is allstars, you have to be ready to play hardcore" (paraphrased)


If it wasn't for that little fact about Rob and Amber still dating it would be crystal clear that Amber dumps Rob at F3.


"RE: plus...."
Posted by memacmur on 04-30-04 at 05:28 PM
And wouldn't it be shocking (for SeeBS anyways) if Amber won 4-3, and the winning vote was from the very Bostonian she "betrayed!"

Heck, I could see Amber convincing Rawb that she wants to win (as a competitor), and feels that she cannot beat Rawb, but can beat Jenna, especially with his vote (and influence) on the jury.

I was originally going for a Jenna win all the way, but the recent spate of negative editting has me convinced (like Shakes) that she is F2 loser.

<begin Friday afternoon rant>
The only way Jenna's editting could not be geared towards a win is if she made one heck of a speech at the final TC. I always look for a player who was an a$$ to point out that they did it for specific reasons, to make people dislike them, to get themselves farther along. It would refreshing to see someone come out and say "Of course you hated me. That's what I was going for. I'm standing here in the final 2, so obviously you overlooked something. Sorry if I offended you with my dishonest play and constant betrayals, but that's what the game is about. You can take your integrity and console yourself with it, I'll take the million dollars instead." Of course, the only person I see pulling this for a speech would be Rawb. Which is why for some strange reason (well, actually due to my own decision that Romber and Jenna are a lock for the final 3 because of T/J/Rups collective game-wise stupidity) I'm cheering for Rawb.
<end Friday afternoon rant>

MEmacmur

"RE: plus...."
Posted by steppingrazor42 on 04-30-04 at 07:52 PM
Of course Rob would vote for her in the end, even if he's bitter he wants her to win the $$$ so he can share it with her! But of course they'll play it up so it looks like he wouldn't. Who would ever believe Rob would vote for Jenna, he seems to be annoyed (shocker) by her.

I hope Ambuh wins the final IC and does bring Jenna with her to the F2, at least it would spice this season up a little.

A Jenna win would be almost worse than V.

"RE: plus...."
Posted by Brownroach on 04-30-04 at 05:29 PM
If it wasn't for that little fact about Rob and Amber still dating it would be crystal clear that Amber dumps Rob at F3.

I really don't think this is a big issue, Shakes (see post here). Yeah Rob's ego might be bruised for five minutes, but c'mon -- she's gonna win a million bucks, AND her a$$ is slammin'!



"Roach..."
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-30-04 at 05:40 PM
...you're right. The more I think about it the more I lean towards Rob getting over it. But, for me it has more to do with Rob's sports background than anything else. I've had a theory that I developed ever since I was on Love Cruise and had the opportunity to parcipate in one of these games first hand.....

When I was on LC and made it to the finals I couldn't understand how the voted out players could come back so bitter and upset about getting stabbed in the back. You see, I've played hockey and basketball my whole life and know what it is to win just as much as I know what it is to lose. Even the best athletes have lost thousands of times in their lives. I've always said that the best way to judge a person's character is how they act, not when they win, but when they lose. People who have been in sports their whole lives typically know how to lose with class, how to actually live the motto "its just a game".

And this goes especially with hockey. Hockey is the most violent sport in the world, yet, it also has the most post-game sportsmanship between players. Its not uncommon to see the same two people who were fighting on the ice enjoying a beer together in the bar after the game.

Anyway, back to LC, I noticed that all the people that were bitter and upset were teh ones that didn't have a sports background while the guys on the show that had all played sports in college and high school couldn't care less that they had been stabbed in the back cause they knew that it was part of the game and what you had to do to win.

Now look at Rob. Rob is a hockey player. We've already seen him exhibit great sportsmanship when he was voted out of S4. The more I think about it I can totally see him not only forgiving Amber, but endorsing her move against him as her only way to win. After all, Rob's early confessionals all said that even though he likes Amber and she likes him, when push comes to shove, they are both out here playing for a million dollars.

"RE: Roach..."
Posted by Brownroach on 04-30-04 at 06:46 PM
Yes, I think your sportsmanship observations are very apropos here.

So -- gonna change your 99% to 100%?


"RE: Roach..."
Posted by Magic Fingers on 04-30-04 at 07:39 PM
I agree shakes, growing up I was always told you can tell more about a person by how they lose over how they win.

I also like all your reasoning how the game plays out.

Thanks for a wonderful summary.


shakes deserves a massage

"RE: Roach..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 05-01-04 at 08:31 PM
Gee Magic, I sure hope Lex is reviewing these posts....ha ha!


"RE: Roach..."
Posted by Drive My Car on 04-30-04 at 07:53 PM
I get the Sports metaphor, and agree, would like to add that I think once the Game is over it's over.
Maybe I am a bit of a romantic, but I think his feelings for Amber are bigger than the game. Sure, he is playing, but I don't think he would mind seeing her win if he doesn't. I believe he'd understnad and even respect her for not taking him to the final.
Silly me, I think he really loves her.


( True and I were talking about this exact thing)

"RE: Roach..."
Posted by GrendelsMom on 04-30-04 at 10:10 PM
I'll buy the carefully-constructed argument about the F3 order, but I need to be more convinced to accept the sports theory. For every professional athlete you can name who "loses with class," I could name one who hates to lose and is a very sore loser--even though they've been brought up, as you say, to learn that losing is part of the game. For a Survivor example, of all the seasons the person who's most associated with "sore loser" is Tammy Leitner, whose "hobbies include running, biking, lifting weights, kickboxing, and camping" (from her CBS bio)--although to be fair, with the exception of kickboxing, those aren't necessarily competitive sports.

I think part of learning to lose well comes from participating in sports, but part of it also comes from how they are taught to respond to losing by influential people in their lives: coaches, parents, and older siblings, e.g. I'd be interested if there was any research in this area, and what a scientific study might reveal.

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by nailbone on 04-30-04 at 05:20 PM
She would be the anti-Colby.

So, will he propose to her BEFORE or AFTER the final vote is read?



Cool new sig courtesy of Jslice o-

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by SurvivaBear on 04-30-04 at 05:42 PM
I was thinking that Amber was getting "Tina" editing. She is definitely playing UTR and "nice girl", but I wonder if there is not a significant bit of scheming that we have not been shown.
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by nailbone on 04-30-04 at 05:47 PM
Oh, I agree. My "anti-Colby" comment goes more toward her playing all the way to the end and taking the evidently-hated Jenna, rather than taking her "friend" and giving away the $$$ because of it.


Cool new sig courtesy of Jslice o-

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Brownroach on 04-30-04 at 05:10 PM
As a side note, if Amber does get rid of Rob at F3 and goes on to win she will be worthy of the title of greatest game of Survivor ever played and definitely worthy of being the All star champ.

And the irony will be that Rob asked Lex to save Amber, "and the dumbass did it!" Who'll look like the bigger dumbass, the one who did the favor or the one who asked for it?



"Bwahahaha"
Posted by SurvivaBear on 04-30-04 at 05:14 PM
Who'll look like the bigger dumbass, the one who did the favor or the one who asked for it?

and you know how EPMB loves irony. Now, you all have my hopes up.
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by yensid on 04-30-04 at 05:33 PM
Just as an aside since Shakes mentions that nobody watching would want Jenna to win...I just spoke to my sister and she doesn't read the spoilers boards just a normal watcher, so I use her as my 'average' viewer.
I asked her who she wants to win and her 1st choise was Jenna and 2nd choise was Rupert. (Although I read the spoilers, I too want Jenna to win)

Just saying...

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by babalouie on 04-30-04 at 05:39 PM
Shakes, I'm not altogether sure Rob is a good sport. After this week's RC loss, and Bo's win, I noted Rupert started to clap and everyone joined in BUT Rob.
Who knows, maybe he wanted to see his brother win.
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by JohnMc on 04-30-04 at 05:43 PM
Rob has been saying a ton of things all season long that would simply prove to be ironic.

He says the best thing would be to get the girl and the million.

He says that Amber is his "in" and that he trusts her completely.

His brother Mike says, "Don't trust anyone."


Now, along the lines of irony, we have a little bit of history. There's always some statement given that should somehow foreshadow who wins in the end.

In S1, it was Rich's "write me the check" speech.
In S4, Vee said, "A black person will never win."
In S7, JFP said that there was no way Sandra would get the million. (Whoever wants to can go back to find the exact quote.)

I'm not sure exactly what the exact quote is for this season, but it seems to be more than just one quote. It seems to be this week after week of Rob gloating about himself and winning the million.

What always hit me about the foreshadowing quote was not so much that it told you who would win but rather that it was ironic.

Here's what I'm talking myself into:

With all of Rob's blathering self-absorbed speeches about how he's going to win the million and get the girl and how he trusts the girl, it becomes quite ironic for the girl to cut him loose to win.

Shii Ann identified that Amber is actually the string puller, and she makes him do the dirty work. Amber was also the one who made the real deal with Lex and Kathy, yet somehow when they voted for her in Lex's boot they both only voted for her by default when they really wanted to vote for Rob.

The pecking order in the tribe is definitely Tom, then Rupert, then Jenna. But if Amber wins immunity, she'll ditch Rob. Rob did all the dirty work, and she's just a coat-tailer. Jenna is the same, so that means that Amber had the better strategy because she coat-tailed and manipulated the right person. (Jenna only had Rupert because he built an island basement which cost Saboga their morale.)

The foreshadowing of Rob as the winner who was told to trust no one, and the fact that he trusts Amber implicitly, should tell us that he gets cut at 3.

PTTE - Tom/Rupert/Rob/Jenna/Amber

gotta go change my PTTE game posts...

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by memacmur on 04-30-04 at 05:53 PM
I guess I'm just agreeing with people this afternoon

Just wanted to add a comment about what I think is the smartest piece of gameplay we've seen by Amber this entire game:
She convinced Lex & Kathy & SA to keep her over Jerri with the idea of currying Rawbs favour.

When it fell apart, Lex and Kathy both blamed Rawb. I think Shii-Ann realized then how smart Amber is playing this game. Or as Rawb would say, That giwl is wicked-smawt.

MEmacmur

"My only problem with this....."
Posted by MDSkinner on 04-30-04 at 05:52 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-30-04 AT 06:01 PM (EST)

Is the editing. Particularly from last nights episode, it was very clear that MB was trying to show that Amber was the favorite to win it all. They spent the last 15 minutes focusing on Shi-Ann's little speech and how she wanted to show everyone who she thought was playing the best game and who if everyone were not careful this was who would win the game, and the editing made it clear that everyone knew that it was Amber. I could be totally wrong about this, but usually MB does not make it this easy for the general viewing audience to figure out who is going to win. And after last night, I spoke with a few friends who are I suppose what you would call "average" viewers (meaning they do not get on these boards), and they all felt totally certain that Amber would win the million (granted they all felt that she would win it against Rob). So really, the only surprise would be that she doesnt go against Rob, if this is the scenario that plays out, and I am not sure that MB would want to show us with 2 episodes to go who is going to win.

That is my only issue with this scenario. Your logic is totally sound, but I have trouble believing that MB would lay the winner out for us that easily.


Edited to clean up...Clearly I had some fat fingers here.

"RE: My only problem with this....."
Posted by SurvivaBear on 04-30-04 at 06:09 PM
It could be, based on negative feedback regarding other UTR winners, that Burn-it wanted to show the She-Devil's revelation. I know I was suprised when Shii wrote down "Amber." I htought she was speaking of Rawb. It is somewhat ironic and suprising that Shii could hold up a sign saying, "Amber will win if you idyuts don't do something!" and they completely miss the clue.

even Rawb will not take the hint.
"RE: My only problem with this....."
Posted by Brownroach on 04-30-04 at 07:14 PM
I thought she was speaking of Rawb.

I'm glad you brought this up -- I bet Rawb (at least) thought so too. I bet no one expected her to say Amber.

It is somewhat ironic and suprising that Shii could hold up a sign saying, "Amber will win if you idyuts don't do something!" and they completely miss the clue.

Since they didn't pay attention to Shii Ann before, why would they start now?


"then I guess I'm smarter than everyone"
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-30-04 at 07:38 PM

>I bet no one expected
>her to say Amber.
>


...I knew the second she started talking that she was talking about Amber and not Rob. It should've been obvious to everyone on this message board, unless you forgot to watch the last episode because all the clues you needed were in the last episode.

Remember last week, when Shi Ann told Rob to his face that she didn't think he was playing a good game and that she would be suprised if he would make it to the F2? And then in the same ep she had a confessional where she said that Amber was playing a great game!

I actually started laughing when the camera kept showing Rob cause I realized how stupid MB must think (correctly) his audience is since he gave the answer away last week, yet still had the balls to make it look like she was talking about Rob.

I can't believe you guys didn't see right through that one.


"RE: then I guess I'm smarter than everyone"
Posted by MDSkinner on 04-30-04 at 08:19 PM
I am with you Shakes, in that I thought it was clear she was talking about Amber. And again, that brings me to the point that I have trouble believing that MB would lay it out there for us like that. It just seems to easy to say that Amber will win now, because she is not just the obvious choice, but she seems like the only legit choice right now. And that makes me pretty damn suspicious.
"RE: then I guess I'm smarter than everyone"
Posted by Loquatrix on 05-01-04 at 01:12 AM
Yup, I felt sure she was referring to Amber as soon as Shii started that line of talk, and since I am about as psychic as an IKEA tabletop, I have to assume I reached this conclusion because the TV show presented me with reasons to do so.

Like others have said, Amber being outted by another player as the likely winner at this point in the game is grounds for suspicion. I would now consider Amber in serious danger of being voted out at the next Tribal Council because these players ARE reaching the most paranoid they'll ever be in the game, and I think Shii Ann's speech will have effectively played upon that paranoia. Rob in particular must be worried -- the uncertainty he has expressed about Amber's loyalty will have been particularly piqued by Shii Ann's comments. Rupert and Tom may both be surprised into action by suddenly having Amber's strategic capabilities shown to them, because they've always perceived Rob as the powerhouse and thus the threat in that pairing. Jenna, thinking that she could not beat Rob in F2 but has a chance against Amber, might now be shaking in her shoes that Amber would also beat her.

Of course, it may be the opposite -- that what we see from here on out is Amber Amber Amber all the way, as a process of justifying her win. She survives not only having a target painted on her back by Shii Ann, but she enters Final 4 with stacks of gameplay and skulduggery still to come -- which we haven't been able to witness much of thus far because it doesn't fit with the Sweetheart role she's there to play. The only thing we've really clearly seen is her indicating that she'd be ready to dump Rob if that were necessary for her to move forward. That DOES fit with Amber being the winner. MB had to show that in earlier episodes, even though it clashes with the Sweetheart thing, so that it doesn't come completely from out of left field when the Sweetheart does actually get rid of Rob.

So I'm very much of two minds about what it could mean that we were shown Amber as the likely winner last night. But the point of all this was that, for whatever reasons, it seemed pretty clear to me that Amber was being indicated, rather than Rob. Whether that is preparing us for an Amber win, or for her imminent boot, is the part that better spoilers are going to have to figure out for me. ::grin::

"RE: then I guess I'm smarter than everyone"
Posted by Brownroach on 05-03-04 at 11:02 AM
>I bet no one expected her to say Amber.

I was talking about the other A$$es here, Shakes. As you said, it was pretty obvious from the previous week that Shii Ann meant Amber. But the other A$$es probably thought Shii Ann was out of her mind for suggesting that someone as seemingly inconsequential as Amber could win -- which is just another reason why I think she does.



"paging Doctor Skinner...."
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-30-04 at 07:43 PM
...look at it this way. These last few episodes are going to resemble a single episode of Survivor in this sense....every episode starts out with MB showing us who is going to be booted in the first 10 minutes. Then he spends the remaining 50 minutes trying to make us think its someone else.

Now, my next prediction is that over the next couple of episodes we will see a lot of "amber can't win" editing....it will look like this...

Amber just rode coattails
Amber didn't do any work at camp
Amber screwed over a lot of people
Blah blah blah

I bet we'll even see a pre-jury confessional from Rob all cleaned up saying how he might not vote for Amber cause she screwed him over.....of course he'll probably talk for about 4 hours about how he WILL vote for Amber, but we won't see that footage.

"RE: paging Doctor Skinner...."
Posted by MDSkinner on 04-30-04 at 08:22 PM
This is a perfectly legit possibility. And if they play Amber off in the way that you mention on next Thursday's episode, then I will be behind your idea full boar. However, if they continue to prop her up as they did this last episode, I just don't see how she can win, since it would be too obvious a choice.

So I suppose I should hold off on my doubts until after the next episode.

"one thing to keep in mind..."
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-30-04 at 08:58 PM
However,
>if they continue to prop
>her up as they did
>this last episode, I just
>don't see how she can
>win, since it would be
>too obvious a choice.
>

....remember, this is not a normal season of Survivro, this is All Stars. This is the season that is supposed to define the series. This is the season where MB has teh most to lose. This, over all other seasons, is the one where MB wants to make sure America "accepts" the winner.

That being said, lets flash back to when the cast was announced. Who was the one Survivor who came under the most heat as being undeserved? Without a doubt, Amber. MB knows this, he knew it would be that way when he picked her after other good looking girls turned him down and he was stuck with Amber.

MB thought it was no big deal....she'll supply some eye candy for a little while and then in AMber fashion she'll get voted out without so much as a whimper. But, then a funny thing happened...she actually won.

Now MB was facing a problem he never imagined...the chance that after it was over All Stars would be looked at as the biggest joke in series history. So MB decides that if Amber was going to win he was going to make darn sure tha America knew (or was forced to believe) that she was the most deserving winner out there.

We all know that MB likes to hide his winner through negative editing, but is it possible that this season his desire to see All Stars legitimized outweighed his desire to offer up a suprise winner?

Additionally, lets not forget that MB knew going in that the F3 will offer up the most dramatic vote off in Survivor history and that bit of drama should be enough to carry the finale all by itself, thereby negating the need to hype up the actual winner vote.


"You've sold me..."
Posted by bobstew617 on 05-01-04 at 00:15 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-01-04 AT 00:16 AM (EST)

Shakes, your logic seems impeccable to me and for one, I HOPE this is the way it goes down. it would redeem an otherwise boring season (for me anyway). Amber has been increasingly edited as THE player in this game, the one people underestimated for a long time.

As for the vote, I think the jury will see this also, AND they will not be as vindictive towards Amber as they would against Rob, along with the fact that Jenna has made few friends in the game.
(edited because I can't type this time of night)

"RE: one thing to keep in mind..."
Posted by MDSkinner on 05-01-04 at 11:18 AM
You make a very strong argument Shakes. I defintely can not come up with any better reasoning than what you have displayed here, so at this point I am sold on your idea, even if it does seem so obvious at this stage of the game.
"RE: My only problem with this....."
Posted by thumper2 on 04-30-04 at 10:20 PM
I totally agree with you MDS....he would never let us know who the winner was with 5 players left in the game! I think Shi just let everyone know last night that hey if you take Amber to the F2 she will win! I think its gonna be Rob/Rup/Amber or Rob/Amber/Jenna in F3 and none of them will want to take her so she is gone(well actually I think Rob would take her)...her only hope in that scenario would be to win Final immunity(or Rob winning final immunity).
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by speedyforme on 04-30-04 at 05:57 PM
I will agree 100%

based on last night's episode...it's quite obvious Amber will win

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by zazzy on 04-30-04 at 06:50 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-30-04 AT 06:50 PM (EST)

What about Tom instead of Jenna in the F3 with Rob and Amber? Why is everyone so certain it is Jenna?

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Jims02 on 04-30-04 at 07:41 PM
I agree, shakes. If your order is correct, it's gonna be S4 all over again.

Rob = Kathy

-Remember Kathy's editing from S4. She was displayed as a likeable player, but she was also displayed as a major player and central character after the merge. Rob, although less likeable, is definitely depicted as a major player. If he gets 3rd place, it would surprise many people.

Jenna = Neleh

-This is the strongest comparison of the three. Neleh, during the last 4 weeks was edited extremely badly. Unfairly, in my opinion. If she had won that season, we wouldn't have seen her offer her gum to her tribemates. Anyway, Jenna is getting a very similar wrap. She's being displayed as obnoxious and hypocritical. That may not be what's happening out there, but that's how MB wants us to see it.

Amber = Vecepia

-Think about it. Both are relatively UTR players. Here's the kicker. As we all know, Vee ended up stabbing Kathy in the back in the F3 by letting Neleh win IC. If Amber does stab Rob in the back, it's just another tie-in to S4.

Of course, I'm still not convinced it doesn't go Amber, Jenna, with Rob winning...


Jims02: 2004 CMY Anti-Executee Champ

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by I_AM_HE on 04-30-04 at 08:39 PM
I have to say I'm leaning this way as well, shakes. Jenna/Amber has been the F2 i've suspected for most of the game, and although I still give Jenna a slight edge, it's negligible at this point compared to the landslide diferential I had her at just a couple weeks ago. I still won't rule out Jenna over Rob in the F2 though - that's actually the scenario I see as most likely right now, though also not by much over a Jenna/Amber, Amber/Jenna finish.

The big doubt I have about Amber beating Jenna is Lex and Kathy - they still are probably angry at her lying to them. Kathy also was seen to dislike Jenna, but faced with a choice between her and Amber, while not as easily as over Rob, I think she'd pick Jenna. Rupert also would probably give it to his teammate from the start, and Alicia is probably more angry at Romber than at Jenna. That's 4, no matter what Tom and Shii Ann do (and I'd give them both to Amber)

"IamHe...."
Posted by shakes the clown on 04-30-04 at 08:50 PM
...you're wasting your time trying to figure out who is going to vote for who. The answer to who will win is always in the editing and nowhere else.

That said, I disagree with your assessment that Alicia would vote for jenna over Amber. And I don't think Kathy or lex are shoe ins either for Jenna.

"RE: IamHe...."
Posted by I_AM_HE on 04-30-04 at 08:58 PM
true enough shakes, no votes are ever a shoe-in, but i think there is plenty of editing to call jenna the winner too. i do agree though that Amber (and maybe Tom) is the only one that really seems likeable enough at this point to be a winner MB would showcase for his All Star edition.

and an Amber/Jenna (whichever way the vote fell) would make Tom's "big boys" quote ironic

"RE: IamHe...."
Posted by Flipper on 04-30-04 at 09:20 PM
>true enough shakes, no votes are
>ever a shoe-in, but i
>think there is plenty of
>editing to call jenna the
>winner too. i do agree
>though that Amber (and maybe
>Tom) is the only one
>that really seems likeable enough
>at this point to be
>a winner MB would showcase
>for his All Star edition.
>
>
I'm just chiming in to say I find the argument for the Rob-F3, Jenna F-2 and Amber F-1 somewhat compelling but I think this editing has been so overtly over the top obvious (Shii's look-out for Amber speech), I find it suspect. Plus I have to admit I'm a conspiracy theorist who believs that MB and other production staff manipulate what the jury knows and sees and that will affect the jury vote. I think having either Rob or Amber as the sole survivor would be distasteful to MB & Co., because while they've loved exploiting the "showmance" for ratings to canabalize dating reality show fans, the appearance of collusion and impropriety if two romantic mates hook up and make decisions about who goes on the jury and who goes to final 2 is just plain unseemly. I mean these were the producers who were apoplectic about the mere possiblity that Tina was going to use some of her winnings to buy Colby a freaking motorcycle.

Also, in the event of the female final 2, never underestimate the power of the mother with young children, especially Jenna, maybe the first final 2 "single mother". This card has worked before and some of the recent editing of Jenna as a plaintain-hoarding control freak is reminiscent of Sandra's "she threw away the fish bucket and is doing other psycho-sabatoge" stuff that made us doubt her sanity and her likeability, and yet.....between her and Lil, both mom's, the jury went for Sandra arguably because she had young children (not to mention she didn't comeback after having been already voted out).

I also disagree that only Amber and Tom are the only ones likeable enough for MB to want to showcase as the ##### winner - I think they're editing almost everyone as potentially deserving, with the exception of Jenna's recent negative editing, which looks suspicious to me.

Flipper

"It wasn't sorta, Jeff"

"RE: IamHe...."
Posted by speedyforme on 04-30-04 at 09:28 PM
hm...i kinda disagree...

Jenna, whom I always thought was the winner has changed WAY too much lately...the one person who is consistent it Amber...

Sandra and Jenna are not the same, when Sandra threw out the fish and was trying to sabotage the camp, I was soooooo rooting for her...Jenna is just plain annoying...ANNOYING

"RE: IamHe...."
Posted by Drive My Car on 04-30-04 at 10:41 PM

I think having either Rob or Amber as the sole survivor would be distasteful to MB & Co.,

I believe that they can't control who wins the game, ( or maybe that's don't control it) it is one of the only things that can't be controlled, who votes for whom. MB can through editing control how it's presented to the viewer. So distastful or not, who won is who got the votes. They have had since December to edit the whole thing into a story. I have always thought the way the players were edited is where some of the best clues to the outcome lie.


"JP quotes before the show about amber"
Posted by nicholas on 04-30-04 at 09:11 PM
well an amber win will definitely fit what jeff said about amber before the show begins. remeber that jeff said amber proved to be a stronger and smarter player this time around?

I haven't really seen her stronger compared to her previous appearance. she does fairly well in this seasons challeges but not definitely not stronger as she did the last time. Maybe her F3 IC win is what makes jeff say this??

And for the whole smarter player?? maybe her decision to dump rob from the game is what jeff is reffering to? but then again we also heard from shii and kathy that she's really playing the game. It may be just hard for us to believe that because of her editing as a player who rode robs coattail. but come to think of it, these players have cameras watching them all day and all we get to see of that footage per episode is like 5 minutes of footage from each player well in truth they maybe in front of the camera for a cumulative 4 hours. so maybe shge really is smarter this time

"RE: JP quotes before the show about amber"
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 05-03-04 at 06:20 AM

>I haven't really seen her stronger
>compared to her previous appearance.

The wording "stronger" can mean both physically and mentally. There's not a doubt at all that Amber is being shown as a much stronger player mentally this time around with the editing -- we've seen her scheming, we've seen her talking up boots with other contestants, and we've seen her get outed by Shii Ann as a player. Her confessional time is enormous by comparison to S2.

By contrast, in S2 we saw her edited as a total lamb who didn't say much of anything at all and appeared to be brainless, especially when she voted to stay with the other Ogakors instead of switching over to vote with Elisabeth/Rodger and getting control of the game. For all we know, she did consider doing that but we weren't shown that, we were only shown her sitting on her hands and going along with Benedict Tina and Colby.

I think what is most likely to have happened is that Lamber grew up (she was what, 21 or 22 in S2?) and became wiser to how people and things work. Sure, we've seen times where she is edited as riding Rob's coattails, but we've also seen editing of her as a strong player via Kathy and Shii's comments, and through her convincing Kathy and Lex to not vote her out.

IMHO, she'd make a deserving winner if she won the jury vote, based on the editing. At least she wouldn't be a Vecepia or JennaM type of winner that leaves a bad taste in the mouth.


"A Jenna v. Amber jury"
Posted by FesterFan1 on 05-03-04 at 10:56 AM
While I think Shakes is right that trying to guess who will vote for who is mostly pointless and the answer lies in the editing, it's fun anyway. So here's my $.02.

Lex: Amber - Lex said in his post-boot interviews that he would vote for a player over a 'coattail rider'. If Amber dumps Rob at the F3, 2 things happen in Lex's brain. 1) Lex gets satisfaction that Robbie's little sweetheart kicked his ass to the curb, and 2) Lex gets confirmation that Amber really has been playing a shrewd game. Lex knows that Amber scrambled to save herself after the "swap", and even referred to Rob as her "errand boy" in his vote comment at the TC where he got sent packing.

Kathy: Jenna - All I have to go on is Kathy's voting history. She mentioned twice in vote commentary that Amber lied to her. In Marquesas she voted for Neleh because she felt Vee had betrayed her. Of course, that was the day before her vote, so she was still stinging. Will another 10 days to cool off make a difference? Maybe, but I'm going on her prior tendencies.

Alicia: Amber - It's no secret that Alicia hates, hates, hates Jenna. Jenna is no less culpable in Alicia's doom than Amber is. Alicia has better insight than any of the jurors as to how much better she's played this time.

Shii Ann: Amber - Duh.

Tom: Amber - Again with the annoying thing. We've been shown how much Jenna's tribemates can't stand her. I'm certain that Tom would rather vote for someone he was bonded with than someone whom he felt didn't deserve to be there, regardless of the betrayal level (See: Survivor: Africa).

Rupert: Amber - The seeds of this were sown last week. Rupert said he regrets ever being aligned with Jenna. If Jenna jumps ship and joins with Rob and Amber to vote him out, you better believe he'll repay her when he gets the chance.

Rob: Amber - Exhibit A: They're still dating. Enough said.

Amber wins 6-1 (7-0 if Kathy gets over her grudge).

Fester

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by ValleyGirl on 04-30-04 at 09:46 PM
The old saying holds true, "a picture is worth a thousand words!"


Survivor All*Stars - Final Three -The Queen surrounded by two pawns!

"Agreeing w/ Shakes + Snewser"
Posted by LilNik8 on 05-01-04 at 00:13 AM
First off Shakes, I completely agree with you. I think we are all seeing a Tom boot next episode and then a rupert boot in the final four when he doesn't win immunity. How ironic because I believe he told either Kathy or Shii Ann that if he didnt make a move to get rid of the Robbfaddah he would finish no better than fourth.

Now who wins the final 2 Immunity Challenge? I can see Amber winning the final 3 immunity and taking Jenna because I honestly don't believe she can beat Rob. She had Rob do all her dirty work while she flew UTR and as shown by Brian Heidick's win, you can d*ck people over and still win because people respect that more than riding people's coattails (hence Neleh's and Mama Kim's losses).

If Jenna wins the final 2, I can't see her winning no matter who she takes.

Now to Snewser. I know everyone looks at his boot sheet. From day one, Snewser basically had the boot order IN ORDER. Up until recently, it was Tom, Rupert, Amber, Rob, and Jenna. Now Amber and Rob have switched. This may be another confirmation of Shakes ideas.

Just some thoughts and observations....


~PhoenixMons is God Thank you so much!~

"RE: Agreeing w/ Shakes Snewser"
Posted by redbeard103152 on 05-02-04 at 12:33 PM
I agree with your booting order LilNik. It also reflects on what I think is one of the key quotes made early in the game by Big Tom that this is a game for the big boys. The irony of this quote will be shown as the Big Boys fall one after the other leaving us with the final two of Jenna and Amber.RedBeard
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Dolphini on 05-01-04 at 01:12 AM
I strongly disagree that Amber would dump Rob at F3. If her feelings are genuine as their still dating suggests it just doesnt make sense for her to dump him , cause they would win either way. Also why would Amber think she has such a better chance of winning against Jenna than against Rob ??? Rob has some solid votes against him and she wouldnt know if Rob would be so angry that he wouldnt vote for her after the betrayal. From a strategic point of view it just wouldnt make sense and from a personal point of view neither. This goes especially after Shii-Ann exposed her as the "mastermind" which just about kills all the "just riding the coattail" talk.
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Loquatrix on 05-01-04 at 01:31 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-01-04 AT 01:31 AM (EST)

If her feelings are genuine as their still dating suggests it just doesnt make sense for her to dump him , cause they would win either way

Disagree. No matter how genuine their feelings feel, the reality of the situation is that at the point in time we're currently being shown on the TV show, Amber and Rob have been a couple for a month, tops. That's far too short a time for either of them to be making long-term financial decisions as a couple, along the lines of "We're completely certain we'll be together forever and will both enjoy the million equally."

Far more likely is that each of them is aware that this is a nice daydream -- one in which it's important, nonetheless, to be the one controlling the purse strings, the one to whom the cheque is made out. After a month together in extraordinary circumstances in which neither can truly trust that their feelings for each other have long-term integrity in real life, neither of them is playing to share the money. Each of them is playing to win it, and if the opportunity remains after the show to spend the money on fun things with each other, great. But both of them want it in their own bank accounts first and foremost.

While a personal angle has come into the game for both of them, they're still both out there playing to control the million dollars. Amber certainly doesn't seem so doe-eyed over Rob that she'd let him get between her and the money. And Rob has told us that he plans to get the money while the girl would be a bonus. On that basis I do expect to see Romber broken up in gameplay terms before the season is out.

Edited to insert proper HTML tags.

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Dolphini on 05-01-04 at 01:55 AM
its true they all play for a million but why bother betraying if it doesnt really give u a strategic advantag ?? It surely isnt clear that Amber would beat Jenna easier than Rob in F2. Many would argue that Rob would be easier to beat.
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by okaloosajohn on 05-01-04 at 07:46 AM
"Disagree. No matter how genuine their feelings feel, the reality of the situation is that at the point in time we're currently being shown on the TV show, Amber and Rob have been a couple for a month, tops. That's far too short a time for either of them to be making long-term financial decisions as a couple, along the lines of "We're completely certain we'll be together forever and will both enjoy the million equally."

Really? My wife and I had known each other for 2 weeks when I asked her to marry me. She said yes on Wednesday and we got married on Friday. That was 35 years ago come December!


You shouldn't judge everyone by your own experiences. (of course if Mrs. O had had a million dollars, things might have been a bit different)

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Loquatrix on 05-01-04 at 07:38 PM
You shouldn't judge everyone by your own experiences. (of course if Mrs. O had had a million dollars, things might have been a bit different)

That's exactly my point. ::grin:: Amber and Rob have major financial considerations that people in "normal" relationship circumstances don't have. Plus, they're starving on a desert island with none of their usual life reference points around them, so they're already in a disadvantaged position in terms of judging the potential of their relationship to go long-term.

This, to me, means that there is the potential for either of them to dump the in-game alliance if that's what is necessary to get oneself to the million. I'm not saying they will -- actually my feeling is that they won't be faced with the decision in the first place, as neither of them wins the F3 immunity in my PTTE -- but just that the idea of personal control over one million dollars (versus risking the other person having control of it, even if they had indicated a willingness to share) is an unusual pressure point in relationship decision-making and one we shouldn't automatically rule out as a factor in the competition just because Rob and Ambuh seem to be "in love."

"RE: Another Edit Support"
Posted by KLicK on 05-01-04 at 07:44 AM
I think another theme that MB has woven into the show is what "friendship" means in a competition.

From the beginning he included "they are friends" moments (even Ethan and Tina were outed as friends outside the game). The whole Lex story involved what it means to have friendships in Survivor. Lex's story ended when Rob said "we can be friends outside the game" and Lex gave Rob the brush-off. Kathy and Rob got some "friend" editing, too.

Wouldn't the irony be that the only person who can really play this game without letting RL friendship being tested was Rob? The "friendship" that carried through the whole story (Romber) is tested the most when she "betrays" him. Then...he votes for her -- she wins -- and they continue to date in RL? Afterall: It's only a game. (...and they lived happily ever after. the end.)

"RE: Another Edit Support"
Posted by HuskiesFan on 05-01-04 at 08:36 AM
Another quote that really supports Rob not being in the F2 was the last thing his brother said as he was getting on the boat to leave..

"TRUST NO ONE".

Foreshadowing that the one he trusted the most would turn on him.

"agree"
Posted by Oscirus on 05-01-04 at 01:04 PM
LAST EDITED ON 05-01-04 AT 01:10 PM (EST)

I agree with your assessment. Amber should easily be able to beat Jenna. Taking Rob to the f2 would be a foolish thing to do. The quote that jump out at me the most is Big Tom's "this is a game for the big boys".

Amber is definately playing a way bettr game than she has been getting credit for her tribal council moments have been good and she has yet to really piss off anyone or breaking any alliances that she hasn't had to.

"On the other hand"
Posted by Oscirus on 05-03-04 at 10:35 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-03-04 AT 10:44 AM (EST)

In actually thinking about it Amber turning on Rob wouldn't really be a surprise. Mr. Burnett has been hitting us over the head with that fact. Rob turning on Amber would be the only way that there is a surprise finale. Amber is playing a good game however she is way too likeable for anybody who wants to win to take her to the finals.
The thing that keeps screaming out is the letter that Rob supposedly wrote Amber while they were on the island. Why else would Rob write Amber a letter other than the fact that he just screwed her over.

"RE: On the other hand"
Posted by okaloosajohn on 05-03-04 at 10:40 AM
Something to do to fill in his time for the last little while in LL?

"RE: On the other hand"
Posted by Oscirus on 05-03-04 at 11:05 AM
That could be it but it really doesn't seem to fit Rob's personality at all.

"What letter?"
Posted by emydi on 05-03-04 at 11:27 AM
I thought the letter he was reading to her was from his brother Mike??? Rob said he would never read that to her unless he trusted her.

emydi

"RE: What letter?"
Posted by Brownroach on 05-03-04 at 11:37 AM
LAST EDITED ON 05-03-04 AT 01:02 PM (EST)

There was a spoiler article early on that said a romantic letter Rob had written to Amber was left behind in Panama. It didn't say exactly where or when the letter was found. I'll see if I can locate a link somewhere.



"Here you go, emydi..."
Posted by Brownroach on 05-03-04 at 12:45 PM
http://www.survivornews.net/news.php?id=625

Romantic #####
Jeff Probst has been promoting a romance on Survivor All Stars. Was it typical Probst hype or was he telling the truth?
SNN
Sunday, February 1, 2004

By: The Wingedmonkeys

Everywhere you looked this week, Survivor: All Stars has been in the news or in promos with Burnett and Probst doing their usual publicity rounds. Probst has been hyping a true romance for this Survivor: All Stars. But was he exaggerating?

As many of you have guessed, the romantic duo is none other than Survivor Outback's Amber Brkich and Survivor Marquesas Rob Mariano. They do make a striking pair.

Eyewitnesses in the Pearl Islands swear the romance looked real. As a matter of fact, the duo left evidence behind when they left Panama... a romantic love letter that our Lothario had written to his pretty Dulcinea. I wonder how much this love letter would go for on eBay.

Let's hope that Rob Mariano doesn't pull an Ethan and starts going through Survivor beauties like bottle caps.


"Thanks BR, or Roach, as STC calls you"
Posted by emydi on 05-03-04 at 12:54 PM
Always a gentleman

Thank you.

emydi

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by true on 05-01-04 at 01:44 PM
Ok, I've been sensing the same thing.

Just a couple of points.

First of all, the editing has misdirected at a Romber F2 all season long and we all know what that means.

You mean revealed strategies don't succeed? How about the Rob/Amber/Rupert/Jenna final four pact shown to us as soon as it happened? I think a lot of the editing has been pretty straight forward this season. Maybe what you see, IS what you get.

Plus, way way too much post boot convo about voting for or against Rob from the booted Survivors...makes me believe that they never actually have to make that decision since he isn't in the F2 anyway.

Yes, but wouldn't there be more gloating, and less bitterness, if Amber screws Rob in the end? I can't think of anything that would make the bitter loser club happier.

Also, I don't think Rob could beat Amber in the F2 and since we know that Rob can;t come in second that in itself is enough to eliminate the possibility of a Romber F2.

I'm not so sure he couldn't beat Amber. Guess it depends on whether the bitter voters blame her less, or like Shii Ann, see her as the mastermind.

Could Rob be such a good sport that he would understand and forgive Amber for doing what she had to do and getting rid of him at F3? I guess that is the million dollar question.

I say 100% YES. Rob would definitely see that Amber has a better chance to win the game against Jenna, and I think he'd understand completely if she were to choose Jenna over him. She'd be an idiot if she didn't, and I think he knows it. I don't, however, think that Amber would be as forgiving. So, no way does Rob dump Amber for Jenna final 2.

I also noticed last episode that when Shii was scrambling, Tom, Rupert, and Amber all said they would consider booting Jenna. The only one who said no, was Rob. He told Shii Ann he was sticking to his word. He will remain loyal.



"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Loree on 05-01-04 at 02:13 PM
LAST EDITED ON 05-01-04 AT 02:15 PM (EST)

>Plus, way way too much post
>boot convo about voting for
>or against Rob from the
>booted Survivors...makes me believe that
>they never actually have to
>make that decision since he
>isn't in the F2 anyway.
>
>
>Yes, but wouldn't there be more
>gloating, and less bitterness, if
>Amber screws Rob in the
>end? I can't think
>of anything that would make
>the bitter loser club happier.
>


Most of the talk about whether they would or wouldn't vote for Rob in the final seems to come from the people asking the questions of the bootees. The players are constantly asked this. They are not the ones bringing up the fact Rob is in the final 2. They are just answering how they would react to him being there.

I do think Lex and some of the others are reacting with anger because Rob does make the F2. We hear Rupert is still angry at Rob. But would they be that angry if Rob doesn't have a chance of winning either? I don't know. I still believe Rob makes the F2. I just don't know for sure who he goes there with.

"one significant difference"
Posted by shakes the clown on 05-01-04 at 02:47 PM
>You mean revealed strategies don't succeed?
> How about the Rob/Amber/Rupert/Jenna
>final four pact shown to
>us as soon as it
>happened? I think a
>lot of the editing has
>been pretty straight forward this
>season. Maybe what you see,
>IS what you get.


...but if you remember from the F4 agreement, the second it was shown Rob was shown in a confessional saying that he had no intention of honoring it since he now had alliances with everyone in his tribe. The irony being that Rob DOES in fact honor that F4 agreement.

I consider that a different set of circumstances from your usual examples of "strategies revealed do not succeed".


"RE: one significant difference"
Posted by true on 05-01-04 at 03:12 PM
Ok, but he said that kinda stuff all along in confessionals. He wants to appear in control, and cover his bases. Of course he's not going to go into confessional and pledge his undying loyalty, it's just not his style. (unless he's talking about Amber) Plus, it was still very early in the game, and he had the option of sticking with them, or going with Tom and Alicia if they waivered.

What struck me most about their F4 pact, was that Rob insisted that nobody get greedy, and that they remain loyal. I think if any of them would have shown signs of betrayl, he'd dump em in a heartbeat, but they haven't. Of course he's going to say in confessional that he would screw them if necessary, but it wasn't necessary, and he's said that about everyone.


"RE: one significant difference"
Posted by Loquatrix on 05-01-04 at 07:51 PM
What struck me most about their F4 pact, was that Rob insisted that nobody get greedy, and that they remain loyal

But this is a disingenuous thing for him to say, considering that he and Amber already at that point had a strong two-way alliance within the four-way alliance. Rob was getting greedy at the time he said those words -- rather than it being "every man for himself" at Final Four, as the four all agreed that day, Rob was already seeing it as Rombuh vs Rupert then Rombuh vs Jenna.

Rob knew even then that his alliance with Amber was stronger than Rupert+Jenna so as much as it's a good and fair thing to say, "Nobody get greedy and we'll all get to Final 4, when it is every man for himself," Rob was already set up so that he wouldn't be merely one quarter of a four-way even split of power. He knew he'd actually have half the power while Rupert and Jenna, with a quarter share each, would be primed to turn on each other.

This is the kind of thing I like about Rob's gameplay, though, and the kind of thing I hope he wins the game for.

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by true on 05-01-04 at 02:59 PM
I just keep talking myself in circles, but...

Jenna's negative edit has me wondering. Yes, she looks like the perfect final 2 partner, but where is the suspense in that?

Either Jenna is-

1. Being given the Keith edit-Perfect final 2 partner, but doesn't make final 2.

or

2. If she does make final 2, we're being set up for her to get creamed, only to have her win.

or

3. She gets final 2 and DOES get creamed.

The way she's been edited doesn't leave room for anything else. I just don't see her winning, given this is All Stars, the editing has been pretty straight forward, and I can't really see her getting to the finals just to be beaten handily. *yawn*

About Romber not making final 2...

We've been given small hints all along that Amber would screw Rob in the end. What if that's the misdirection? On one side, you see Rob profess his loyalty to her, and on the other, you hear Amber ready to flip flop at any moment. Even Rob had to talk her out of flipping a couple of times. Maybe the hints are supposed to make us think Amber dumps him, when in fact, she's the one who stays loyal in the end?


"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Flowerpower on 05-01-04 at 09:32 PM
I'm with you True. All of these points here are quite valid. But, although a very logical speculation, I don't see it happening. I do think the editing is more straight forward this season. I see Jenna as a loser, no matter if she makes final two. We don't like her, the jurors don't like her, she's bossy, manipulitive, brown-nosing, bumbling in challenges. No way she could beat anyone out there, IMO.

I definately could see Amber winning it all, but I do not see her getting to F2 by booting Rob. I strongly feel that her telling Shii that she trusts Rob, because he trusts me, and I can get rid of him any time was the ultimate MISDIRECTION. I honestly don't think she'll backstab Rob...although I'd love to see her do it. If Rob and Amber make it to F3, I'm sure they will hash out any and all possibilities to win the $$$$$. Rob has called all the shots on this show, and I don't think he'll stop at F3. As True noted, we've seen this time and time again, for example when Rob said to Amber, "don't go and get all soft on me now", in regard to giving Lex the boot. Rob has orchestrated the boots, as he told us, "the one who goes is the one that I decide is going".

I also think that Shii's blatant exposure of Amber may not bode too well for her. But, as BR noted above, the A$$es never listened to her while she was there, so why should they now? I wonder what Rob is thinking regarding this. Certainly the light is cast off of him and now onto Amber. I'd feel better about this if I was Rob, perhaps the target is shifting from his back to hers.

A Romber F2 would still not surprise me.

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by emydi on 05-01-04 at 10:14 PM
FP, not only would it not surprise me, I think right now, its the most interesting F2 vote and would be 4-3 either way--depending on how Jenna votes

Lex-Rob doesnt like the coattail riding of Amber

Kathy votes for Rob (she voted for Neleh in S4 after V betrayed her-so she wont vote for Amber who betrayed her in ###)

Alicia and Shii vote Amber

Tom votes Rob

Rupert votes Amber

So its 3-3.

My initial feeling was that Jenna votes Amber all the way but if you're right FP and Amber does not betray Rob if she wins F3 immunity and "betrays" Jenna, in Jenna's mind, her vote is going to go to Rob.

With all this said, I still think Jenna has a chance again Rob because Kathy, Lex and Rupert would vote Jenna. In that case, it would come down to Alicia's vote.

emydi

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Flowerpower on 05-02-04 at 04:53 PM
I don't think Jenna has any chance at all against anyone out there, IMHO....sure, I could certainly be wrong! But, Kathy tried to throw a target on Jenna, blatant under the radar, brown noser strategy, I'd say she'd respect Amber over Jenna(if it's Jenna and Amber in F2). She even said she could'nt vote for her.

Lex, I think would also respect Amber's game over Jenna's, and Rupert I think definately likes Amber way over Jenna. Jenna is a real thorn in Rupert's side now, and he wishes he was'nt in an alliance with her. Once Rupert is on the jury, his alliance is nil, and therefore I'd bet he'd vote for Amber over the pain in the A$$.

With Rob vs. Jenna, I'd bet that Lex, Kathy, Amber, Alicia, and Shii Ann would all vote for Rob.

"My take..."
Posted by bebekid on 05-02-04 at 05:35 PM
Just stopping by with a few observations.

First, I totally agree with Flowerpower. I don't think Jenna could beat anyone left in the game at this point. Stranger things have happened, of course.

Second, Shakes has a good theory and it certainly may happen this way. But I got burned many moons ago when I relied on editing to point to the winner. I was 100% sure that Kathy would win S4 based on the editing. On the other hand, I didn't see how Sandra could win based on her editing. The first confessional by Sandra was her saying "Oh, s**t!" That didn't seem champion-like to me. And remember Tijuana called her a b*tch when Sandra took Morgan's tarp.

Now, even though I am not convinced it's Rob/Jenna/Amber, I AM convinced that Amber wins. I rewatched the last episode last night, and realized that Rob is not being edited as the winner. He called Big Tom and his son "dumba$$es", and I don't think MB would show us Rob saying that if Rob were the winner and he wanted the general audience to be happy with a Rob win.


But what do I know? I met some Survivor fans at a church we visited this morning. The pastor said he was a Reality TV junkie, so I asked him if he watched Survivor. He said yes, so I said who do you think will win? He never answered, but this woman standing nearby said "I want Boston Rob to win!" I guess Rob's dumba$$ comment didn't bother her.

"RE: My take..."
Posted by Alchemist on 05-02-04 at 06:51 PM
He called Big Tom and his son "dumba$$es", and I don't think MB would show us Rob saying that if Rob were the winner and he wanted the general audience to be happy with a Rob win.

Yes Yes Yes-I thought the same thing about that comment from Rob, being called a biotch by people can be interpreted as grudging respect. But to be insulting ie: dumba$$es, would start anyone sneering at Rob especially the casual viewer, which is what I believe MB edits for on one level.

Amber on the other hand has the "gosh aren't I cute, you'ld never suspect me" edit for most of the season and shown often bowing to Rob and acting like she defers to his lead. But acting is what I believe it was, seems like it would be relatively easy given the stress of the environment and the game itself to be the power behind the thrown IMHO.

Alchemist

"RE: My take..."
Posted by Loree on 05-02-04 at 07:00 PM
This is the reason I thought Jenna would not win Amazon. She was shown saying some nasty things about the others. She really wasn't likeable. And unlike Brian in Thailand I couldn't even say that at least she was the best player there. So Rob's editing doesn't mean he can't win. They could have made Jenna more likeable if they had wanted.

At this point I think it will be Rob and Amber in the F2. But I am not sure which one will win. But I am leaning towards Rob.

"RE: My take..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 05-02-04 at 08:08 PM
I agree, Loree. Jenna did have some nasty things to say in the Amazon, and don't forget Sandra in the Pearl Islands. She called Jonny Fairplay a f***ing a$$hole....which, IMO, is a far fetch worse than a dumba$$! I think she had a few choice words for Trish and Burton as well. Point is, I don't know if calling someone an expletive is enough rationale for concluding they don't win....FWIW

"RE: My take..."
Posted by bebekid on 05-02-04 at 08:28 PM
>Point is,
>I don't know if calling
>someone an expletive is enough
>rationale for concluding they don't
>win....FWIW

I agree, FP. The flip side of what I said in my above post is that MB has to work with what he is given by the Survivors. If the eventual winner is a potty mouth throughout the game, what can he do? It makes for good tv to have colorful characters like Jon and Sandra.

This is why I thought Kathy would win. Her story was the most compelling story of S4, IMO. Turns out, Vee didn't have a compelling story, so rather than boring us to death with a "Vee" story, MB told Kathy's story and fooled a bunch of us over-analyzers!

I'm torn between Rob and Amber as to who I think most deserves to win. For some reason, peeps so far have been loyal to Rob, and for that I think he deserves to win. But if Amber can pull off an upset, more power to her.

"RE: My take..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 05-03-04 at 06:28 AM
Bbkid, looks like you and I are seeing eye to eye on our picks to win!

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by PepeLePew13 on 05-03-04 at 06:28 AM

>We've been given small hints all
>along that Amber would screw
>Rob in the end.
>What if that's the misdirection?
> On one side, you
>see Rob profess his loyalty
>to her, and on the
>other, you hear Amber ready
>to flip flop at any
>moment. Even Rob had
>to talk her out of
>flipping a couple of times.
> Maybe the hints are
>supposed to make us think
>Amber dumps him, when in
>fact, she's the one who
>stays loyal in the end?

I don't know... you make good arguments, True, but I'm really on the fence on this editing bit. I don't see why MB would just put all these editing bits in just for the purpose of making us think that Lamber won't go against Rawb at some point, unless that is what happens?

There is a recurring theme that I've noticed in the editing between Rawb and Lamber -- it seems that every time they sit down just holding each other or by each other, we'd see Rawb looking at her and Lamber would be gazing off into the horizon instead of looking at Rawb. Plus all of the confessional bits we've seen where Rawb says "well, if she votes against me, more power to her and she got me" and Lamber saying "he trusts me completely, heheh."

I'm almost convinced that Lamber WILL go against Rawb at some point (F3 vote?) based on the editing. But it's EPMB who is doing the editing, so...


"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by mmm_link on 05-02-04 at 00:15 AM
I didn't read all of the responses, but what if there isn't an immunity for F3...i.e. Jury plays game again and wins.
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by Bebo on 05-02-04 at 11:53 PM
The last time that was done was at final 4. I doubt MB would mess with immunity at F3 because a) the possibility of a 1-1-1 tie and (more importantly) b) the irony in most seasons that the final IC winner has lost the final vote to the person picked to go to the finals. Why replace one of the most interesting Monday morning quarterback discussions with a potential purple rock discussion (where everyone gripes about how cheap the ending was)?

I'd also like to point out one more piece of evidence for an Amber win. During the survey questions challenge, they were asked who would be most likely to use sex to get ahead in the game, and every one of them - Amber included - said Amber.

Snarky, smart, S7 Anti-Bootee Champ

"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by mmm_link on 05-03-04 at 08:05 AM
What about the gambling sportsbook? Didn't they give the worst payoffs for a Rob/Amber finish? Wouldn't they stand to lose the most if they didn't know a thing or two about the final two?
"RE: I'm almost ready to put the STC guarantee on the final 3....."
Posted by dabo on 05-03-04 at 12:08 PM
Just to add an additional bit of data: In a TVGuide piece sometime earlier this season Probst proclaimed the romantic alliance as the worst possible strategy for Survivor. At the time I thought it meant Amber and Rob had to get to the F2 together in order for one of them to win. But the alternative scenario, where one of them jettisons the other in order to go for the win, fits as well with what Probst said.

I don't think it would guarantee Amber (or Rob) the win, in the final TC it will come down to who can best convince the jurists that they deserve the prize. In that scenario, Jenna seems more inclined to go off on emotional tangents (a la Wiglesworth), whereas Amber has learned a lot from Rob over the course of this game, her worst mistake would be to hold back or try to mollycoddle the jury.