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Original Message
"The tribes merge this week"
Posted by Markopolo100 on 03-31-04 at 06:29 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-04 AT 07:55 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-31-04 AT 06:36 AM (EST)

I have a "feeling" that the tribes merge (or at least vote together) this week.

Orangeena, who has a reliable source, reports the same.


Here we go....

Krautboy's great analysis -- combined with the digital altering of Shii Ann's buff (from Red to Green) -- have this new tribe lineup.

NEW CHAPERA -- Amber, Jerri, Lex, Kathy, Shii Ann
NEW MOGO MOGO -- Rob, Tom, Alicia, Jenna, Rupert


WHY THE TRIBES MERGE
First two things we are 95% sure about:

-- Jerri is booted this week.
-- SurvivorNews.net states that the tribes together move to Saboga island as a group of 10.

EPISODE 9
1) Shii Ann is switched.
2) Shii Ann is seen at challenge with digitally-altered buff playing on team with Red flag and Jerri (Red buff)
3) Amber is missing at the challenge. The ONLY logical conclusion of why she is gone, as Krautboy stated, is that Amber is on "NEW CHAPERA" with Shii, Jerri, Kathy and Lex.

OK...ALMOST THERE

4) Jerri is the next boot
5) It is UNLIKELY that Jerri is voted off if NEW CHAPERA goes to tribal council. It would be suicide for Kathy to try and "join" Amber in an alliance. She has a much better chance if she tries to get Mogo Mogo (NEW CHAPERA) back to an even standpoint.
6) It is VERY POSSIBLE that Jerri is voted off if the tribes merge. OLD Chapera has a 6-4 advantage over Mogo Mogo, and Jerri might be seen as a Rodger-like boot.


CONCLUSION
The tribes merge (or at least everyone votes) and BOOT JERRI.

(This could be a fake-merge type situation AKA: Where the winning tribes gets immunity, but still votes at tribal council)

Unanswered questions:
-- Rob and Jenna are seen with RED buffs at the challenge. More digital altering?

Table of contents
Messages in this discussion
"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-31-04 at 07:37 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-04 AT 08:08 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-31-04 AT 07:44 AM (EST)

I don't know Marco, I'm very dubious about this hypothesis....If the tribes do merge before TC, I'd think the former Happy Chappy's would go for a much larger threat than Jerri, like LEX! They all know what a cagey character he is, he's smart, he can win individual challenges, he's a bold player, and above all he is a popular player that is well liked. He also has ties to the Chappy tribe, particularly to Big Tom. I would think that Robfadda, who supposedly is friends with him, would wnat to oust him before he had the chance to realign with Tom.

On the other hand, yes, I think all of them know what a pain in the A$$ Jerri can be, but she's an easy target, she's not going to win hardly any, if any, immunity challenges. Also, for all the reasons we have hashed out over the last two weeks....Kathy making her move to align with the former dominant Chappy's and ingratiate herself to them,(IMO it would be suicide for her not to boot Jerri), Amber perhaps promising final four to Shii and Kathy, and even perhaps Lex realizing the only way to further his game is to keep the former Happy Chappy's happy for now...until later.

I don't doubt that the tribes will be brought together over at Saboga...the intel we had from SurvivorNews was right on target regarding the dissolution of Saboga, and where the merged camps were(Chappy and Mogo), so chances are these spoilers are right on target. Heck, Jiffy could say when the new Chappy tribe returns from TC tonight, you will all be one merged tribe. But, I am highly doubtful that the entire group gets to vote off one of them. Besides, why would they bother having a group IC, and not an individual one if they all got to participate in voting off the next boot?

FWIW, Flowerpower


"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by Markopolo100 on 03-31-04 at 07:43 AM
Flower, I agree. It doesn't make a lot of sense.

But how else is Jerri booted?

Plus, what about those pics of Rupert knocking down a tree. As Krautboy stated, no other good reason to do that other than building a new camp?

Plus, we don't know for sure if the trivia challenge is for immunity. The preview is already misleading enough (with the colored buffs).

Second, why can't they vote together? Remember, as Krautboy said, the tribes might bond in pairs for a while before the twist.

Remember when we had the fake merge in Thailand? We thought it was very possible that the winning tribe got immunity but was also allowed to vote at tribal council.

It wasn't an "out-there" theory back then. Why is it now?

Marko

"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by speedyforme on 03-31-04 at 07:57 AM
it COULD happen if lets say CHAPERA lost (L, K, SA, J, A) was in it and if they all lived together on teh same beach, then K, L and SA could find that they are getting along better with the other people and vote out Jerri thinking they have a shot...

I DUNNO...

as for ROMBER being separated,, it could just mean tribal lines and not living coniditons...

who knows

"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-31-04 at 08:02 AM
Well, I definately think that the clips of Rupert and Tom chopping down the tree is highly indicative of a move to Saboga. But, a la Thailand, and noting the history of repeating former twists and challenges from all the previous Survivor series, it is likely that they are all cohabiting together, yet as separate, switched tribes.

True, we do not know for sure that the trivia challenge is indeed for immunity but we do know that the VO for the previews leads us to believe that it is..."Win and you stay, lose and you go home, blah, blah, blah". This could be blatant misdirection in the preview just as the coloring of the buffs is, but I am doubtful of this...I'm leaning toward thinking it is indeed an IC.

I do think there will definately be some bonding with, or at least trying to bond with the other, during the pairing off. It is definately an option that the winning tribe could go to TC and get immunity while partaking in the vote. But, I am really doubtful of this as I said, I would think that Lex would be a much more appealing target for the majority of the group....I don't think Kathy could save him. Just my opinion, but we all know, especially on April 1, that anything could happen.

"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by justwrong on 03-31-04 at 10:27 AM
someone help me out with this, i seem to remember a preview for this week that instead of saying the "win and you stay, lose and you could go home"... i swear there was one out there that said "the loser gets sent home"

well, that got me thinking, could it be a post-merge/individual immunity challenge where there will be 2 boots this episode, the loser of the challenge, and then also someone at tribal councel.

just an odd theory that popped into my head when i heard this. please let me know what you think.

---of all the things i've lost, i miss my mind the most!

"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by VerucaSalt on 03-31-04 at 08:06 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-04 AT 08:16 AM (EST)


Quote:
4) Jerri is the next boot
5) It is UNLIKELY that Jerri is voted off if NEW CHAPERA goes to tribal council. It would be suicide for Kathy to try and "join" Amber in an alliance. She has a much better chance if she tries to get Mogo Mogo (NEW CHAPERA) back to an even standpoint.
6) It is VERY POSSIBLE that Jerri is voted off if the tribes merge. OLD Chapera has a 6-4 advantage over Mogo Mogo, and Jerri might be seen as a Rodger-like boot.

marko, as always, I do enjoying reading your thoughts as I like to wade through everything before I commit to the "popular" spoiler at the moment. In the same token I am always loathe to fit the speculation to the spoilers part and parcel because I am so stubborn

First, I think Jerri is a likely candidate to get the boot regardless if the tribes are separate or together. This is where MY love of spoiling comes in. The story and the people and the editing. Jerri's past reputation precedes her, she was in trouble the minute she landed on the island unless she changed who she was and apparently we are being shown she hasn't.

Second, Kathy herself, along with her minion SA would like nothing better than to boot her. Only Lex looks at her with any value, his lackey. But let's not forget that booting Amber will also bring Rob's tribe down in number; Lex has to know Amber is not going to "suddenly" be part of his tribe.

Third, Kathy herself has been telling us she is tired of Mogo Mogo. She has told us she wants to be part of Chapera; she just had to wait for the right time. Remember this also (and again I equate everything I pick based on the people first and the spoilers second) Kathy is an EMOTIONAL player. Logic does NOT always dictate. Kathy has been swinging for awhile now with different choices; she now has to essentially choose between Chapera and MM. This is PERFECT for the story that has been playing out coupled with the story that she ULTIMATELY is going to have to tow a line with Lex. It has been waiting there.

Kathy is tired of MM and there is probably no question that she will believe that ROB (King of his tribe?) will "owe" Kathy.

So I don't think it is too hard pressed to see Kathy make a huge gaff in her choices. Emotionally playing the game will do that. Lex has already done it three times over this time.

Now you also mentioned something about Chapera trying to throw the IC or the riddle about same (though now I can't find where you said this) I don't necessarily even believe that it is Chapera attempting to do this. There are probably quite a few members of Chapera who are very happy about Amber being at MM. Except for Rob, I don't think they would risk themselves to save Amber. At Mogo Mogo, there may, in fact, be more motivation to lose. There is an easy boot to start out with, Amber. MM has to know Amber will not "suddenly" be a part of them; she'll go right back to her original tribe and someone like Jerri will be estastic to have a safe boot this week since I'm sure they believe the merger is right around the corner and Lex is no doubt thinking, getting rid of Amber will lower the other tribe's number, pure and simple. Jerri will agree no doubt. We will again be shown Kathy in her "what to do" scenario which has been her theme since the get go

Will there be a merger like you outlined? Possibly yes. Though I don't subscribe to this because of a poster deeming it so (not you of course) Your argument is very sound. I guess I tend to think that Mark Burnett won't pull out ALL the stops this week. This "bizarre" turn of events putting them in a tailspin is plenty for this episode. Perhaps new living quarters like Thailand but still separate? Yes, I can see that. It would certainly help with the "interchange" (if it is say Rob/Amber OR Kathy/Rob, etc.)


"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by volsfan on 03-31-04 at 08:22 AM
VS, I am with you on this one! I think that Jerri is a target no matter what.

Also, I don't think there will be a merge to one tribe and that there will be a switch. I do believe that the tribes will remain 6-4 not 5-5. No real vid caps to go with what I am saying and KB makes great points.

Guess we will have to wait and see!


Director of Public Relations for GAWKUR!

"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 03-31-04 at 01:19 PM
>Remember when we had the fake merge in Thailand? We thought it was very possible that the winning tribe got immunity but was also allowed to vote at tribal council.

Marko - First of all, let me say thank you for keeping the old TDT site afloat -- I read your stuff and I like it!! Thank you!! However, IMHO, I seem to recall that in Thailand, they lived together in the tribe, but had to compete separately and went to Tribal Council independently of each other. And . . . it was the death of the Shii-Devil . . .

Scarlett

"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by Markopolo100 on 03-31-04 at 02:32 PM
I meant that when the fake merge was going to happen. Once of the possibilities WE CONSIDERED before the episode was that a tribe won immunity, but still got to vote at tribal council.

Yes, it didn't turn out that way, but it was a good idea.

>>Remember when we had the fake merge in Thailand? We thought it was very possible that the winning tribe got immunity but was also allowed to vote at tribal council.
>
>Marko - First of all, let
>me say thank you for
>keeping the old TDT site
>afloat -- I read your
>stuff and I like it!!
> Thank you!! However,
>IMHO, I seem to recall
>that in Thailand, they lived
>together in the tribe, but
>had to compete separately and
>went to Tribal Council independently
>of each other. And
>. . . it was
>the death of the Shii-Devil
>. . .
>
>
>
>Scarlett


"Amber negotiates"
Posted by Loree on 03-31-04 at 08:07 AM
If Amber ends up on the other tribe with old Mogo Mogo she has to pick a target to save herself. Jerri seems the logical one because -well, she is Jerri and usually upsets someone. But also Amber knows that Jerri is the outsider to the original Mogo Mogo tribe. So Amber could use this to plot with Kathy. Try convincing them that Jerri may reteam with her old Saboga tribemates of Rupert and Jenna if they merge. That would give Jerri an In with the Happy Chappy group since Rupert and Jenna have been finding their place with that tribe. Convince Kathy and Shii Ann that Jerri could be dangerous when a merge comes and leave Kathy, Shii Ann & Lex more vulnerable. Amber has to promise Kathy some protection within her Romber alliance to get rid of Jerri and save herself till the merge.
"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by Markopolo100 on 03-31-04 at 08:16 AM
OK, which scenario is more likely:

1) Jerri is booted by a Kathy-Amber-??? alliance
2) Jerri is booted by a 6 (or more)-X vote Chapera vs. Mogo Mogo?

I really don't know.

I agree that this is All-Star, and Kathy knows Mogo Mogo will get picked off one-by-one unless she forms another alliance.

But wouldn't Amber try to bring in Jerri as an alliance mate?
Isn't Amber friends with her? I know, I know, Lex and Ethan were friends, too. But I think women form a better, closer bond. Then again, women hate me, so maybe I don't know them.

Here's what I do think happens:

A weird twist changes the tribe makeup drastically.
The tribes move to Saboga.
Jerri is voted out.

MUST....FILL....HOLES....

"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-31-04 at 08:26 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-04 AT 08:36 AM (EST)

First things first...I'm a woman and I certainly don't hate you Marko....you are up there with the other spoiling gods like KB, BR, VS, and Misto!

Secondly, if Amber ends up with all of the former Mogo's, I don't think it will take her long to figure out that there is some animosity for Scerri Jerri, and also noting that she is the newcomer to this tribe via Saboga. So, picking up on the "vibes" of Shii and Kathy, I'm sure that Amber(hopefully, since she's a new serious player this A$$ season), could figure out that her most likely target would be her old friend, Jerri.

And besides, I am still in the camp that believes that Amber does'nt necessarily have to be the major instigator of the proposed Jerri boot. I think Kathy and Shii will much more likely come up with the idea all on their own, and that Amber will eagerly go along, perhaps even validating for them, that if you do this and spare me, I indeed will get you in the prime alliance at Chappy.


"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by Brownroach on 03-31-04 at 10:52 AM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-04 AT 10:55 AM (EST)

FP, I agree with your thoughts here -- Kathy may initiate the negotiations with Amber, but Amber will definitely be prepared. She took a lot of flack for not aligning with Roger and Lis in the endgame of S2, and she wants to be seen as a "player" this time, so she won't let an opportunity to save herself slip by again.

And Marko -- whatever the status of Amber and Jerri's friendship since S2, why would Amber align with Jerri when old Chapera already started reeling Kathy in on the boat reward? They don't need to pull in that many extra people, considering they still have the numerical advantage.

As for a merged tribe voting with all the new Mogos having immunity, it's not out of the question that MB would do that. But it would seem to negate all the melodramatics that are being previewed -- the separation of Ramber; Rob's move that has potentially drastic consequences; the possibility of a thrown IC -- all eventually pointing toward the boot of Amber.

A merged vote at TC would be like a "deus-ex-machina" that saves Amber, and it would be clear that she's going nowhere as soon it's revealed that everyone gets to vote, imo.


"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by Scarlett O Hara on 03-31-04 at 01:27 PM
Going out on a limb here folks, but have we assumed that Amber is not given any kind of "One-Shot Immunity" for ending up on the other side a la The Ghosties? Could this be why Amber is not the next Bootee?

Scarlett

"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by justwrong on 03-31-04 at 02:46 PM
wow scarlett,
i just can't figure out why i didn't think of that! past twists would surely indicate that she would be given a chance, and i can see her in her interview as saying... "i know i am imune this time, but i still feel like i got screwed..."

the one thing this doesn't take into consideration is then why would rob be throwing the challenge?

---of all the things i've lost, i miss my mind the most!

"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by kary1371 on 04-01-04 at 01:35 PM
I'm with you Scarlett, I was wondering why no one seemed to think of it! It would be likely that they would do that since she would be an Outcast in her new tribe...
"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by FrogPrincess on 04-01-04 at 01:41 PM
good point ...
if they just made the Chappys draw to see who goes to MM, then i could see some kind of immunity, buy why would MB do that? i don't think he'd throw that in just to even up the teams and help MM out.

but i'm in the camp that they randomly draw buffs and the tribes just happen to re-align (except Amber of course) which causes Lex (who has drawn a red buff with at least Kathy and Jerri from the vidcaps) to say "this is just weird"." if it supposed to be a random draw, they wouldn't give anyone immunity.


FROGPRINCESS
"We got an overweight, gay, naked man walking around, and no one seems to let it bother them" :-D

"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by emydi on 04-01-04 at 02:36 PM
I'm with you FrogPrincess about the random draw. Whatever the odds are--someone here posted them I think Marko--it happens, Lex says "this is weird" and we hear Mark Burnett off in the distance saying "Curses, my plan would have worked if it wasn't for you ^%$& kids!!"

EMYDI

"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by FrogPrincess on 04-01-04 at 03:01 PM
we hear Mark Burnett off in the distance saying "Curses, my plan would have worked if it wasn't for you ^%$& kids!!"

Scooby Dooby Doo! HA!!!!


FP
"We got an overweight, gay, naked man walking around, and no one seems to let it bother them" :-D

"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-01-04 at 02:49 PM
I don't think they'd give immunity either way. There has to be something random about the way that Jenna and Amber get paired up at the start.

I think it will come down to Flowerpower's idea: Amber and Jenna, as the two "homeless" people, will have to pick new buffs, one red and one green. The other pairs just switch buffs, in effect.


"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by FrogPrincess on 04-01-04 at 03:04 PM
but what is the idea behind just switching buffs? i mean ... that just seems pointless to me. why would MB go to the trouble? i don't think he's just going to have those two draw b/c all that would do is even up the odds ... does he feel that sorry for MM?
i admit that MB has had some pretty crackpot ideas in the past to try and make things interesting ... but i just don't know about that one.



FROGPRINCESS
"We got an overweight, gay, naked man walking around, and no one seems to let it bother them" :-D

"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by okaloosajohn on 04-01-04 at 03:11 PM
Always walk a mile the other person's shoes before you criticize them. That way, you'll be a mile away and they'll be barefoot...

"RE: Amber negotiates"
Posted by Brownroach on 04-01-04 at 03:43 PM
LAST EDITED ON 04-01-04 AT 03:50 PM (EST)

Mainly, I think it's really, highly, extremely improbable that a random buff selection would swap EVERYONE to the opposite tribe -- except for one person, who couldn't be swapped in any case.

And I do think it's something MB would set up to mess with their heads. Lex says, "This is weird." It *would* seem weird. It would have them wondering "Why? What's the point?"

ETA: Wouldn't Lex, Kathy and Jerri look happy, relieved, and be high-fiving each other here, if they'd just randomly picked buffs that kept them all together? Instead, they just look confused:



"Disagree..."
Posted by MDSkinner on 03-31-04 at 08:41 AM
First, let me say that I agree with your first few points. Jerri seems to be the standard guess as the boot this week and there are a number of sources reporting this, so I can go that we are 95% sure of this. Shi-Ann may or may not be digitally altered, but I do not think this helps or hurts your point. This is where you lose me.

>>5) It is UNLIKELY that Jerri is voted off if NEW CHAPERA goes
>>to tribal council. It would be suicide for Kathy to try
>>and "join" Amber in an alliance. She has a much better chance
>>if she tries to get Mogo Mogo (NEW CHAPERA) back to an even
>>standpoint.

Just because you think that it would be suicied for Kathy to join Amber in an alliance, does not mean that she thinks of it that way, and remember the television viewers perspective is much different than that of the player. She may see Amber coming over to her alliance as the perfect opportunity to fully unite with the old Chapera tribe, which she has already started the makings of on the Yacht. She may also see this as a way to further her own cause in the game. Currently Mogo Mogo is already down 2 to Chapera, and all of the players have to assume that a merge is coming soon. That in mind, Kathy may well think that this is her opportunity. And we all know that Shi-Ann would not be at all tough to talk into voting Jerri out, which means that what Lex does may be irrelevant.

So, basically, this is where you and I disagree. You may be right, Kathy doing this sort of thing may be suicide, however I am not sure that she would see it that way, not in the situation that she is in. So, to me, this is not a solid reason to believe the tribes merge this week.

"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by pmspml5 on 03-31-04 at 09:03 AM
The one reason I think that they may not merge to one tribe (I still think they move to Saboga) is JP comments at tribal counsel about Mogo Mogo playing for the merge. Why was that put in there the editing could have easily taken it out because Lex had already stated thats how he was playing. I think its a key confessional/comment. I dont think they merge this week anyway and I think they live together on the same island so that you can see the people you may be voting on if your on the jury.
"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by VerucaSalt on 03-31-04 at 09:40 AM
Quoting marko again

1) Jerri is booted by a Kathy-Amber-??? alliance
2) Jerri is booted by a 6 (or more)-X vote Chapera vs. Mogo Mogo?
I really don't know.
I agree that this is All-Star, and Kathy knows Mogo Mogo will get picked off one-by-one unless she forms another alliance.
But wouldn't Amber try to bring in Jerri as an alliance mate?
Isn't Amber friends with her? I know, I know, Lex and Ethan were friends, too. But I think women form a better, closer bond. Then again, women hate me, so maybe I don't know them

As it stands now, I think we may see Lex and Jerri vote Amber and Kathy, SA and Amber vote Jerri. I am having a difficult time with Kathy NOT telling Lex beforehand because that is something she made mention of that Colby arbitrarily decided a boot without talking it through. Both Kathy and Lex are the communicative type so it is plausible that she does tell Lex; Lex may be extremely angry and do his own thing; try to swing Shii Ann perhaps and we go to Tribal Council not quite knowing how it will pan out. We, no doubt, will see that MAD SCRAMBLE that we have been seeing quite a few times at Mogo Mogo

Personally I don't necessarily think Jerri and Amber are all that close. I haven't heard of them really associating with each other subsequent to the show. In fact, I believe Jerri was so motivated to forge a career that she wasn't a main presence at Survivor events whereas Amber was.

In all honesty, I think Amber, after watching S2 may even be a little non loving towards Jerri if only because Amber probably looked more like a non player BECAUSE of Jerri (this is all speculative of course) Amber, may, in fact, want nothing more than to distance herself from that relationship BECAUSE of her past with Jerri. Don't forget, they saw this show. Didn't you consider Amber nothing more than Jerri's lackey? I doubt Amber wants that association any longer and is trying very hard to prove she is more of a player (maybe this needs to go in the story/arc thread lol)


"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-31-04 at 11:14 AM
I am having a difficult time with Kathy NOT telling Lex because...

Yes, I agree here VS. As I've stated before, I am not even opposed with Lex suggesting the idea to the girls(KO and Shii). Especially if as speculated he gets paired with Robfadda prior to the switch, and he's a smart guy, I'm sure he can see the writing on the wall as things stand now...with the Mogo's in the minority. And as several others have pointed out, he's playing for the merge and beyond. He's got to have at least considered trying to ingratiate himself to the Chappy's as well, he's definatley not stupid.....or at least he does'nt have it stamped on his forehead(although I can see how it could be argued that he indeed has been with his boot picks to date).

I've even considered that the confessional where Shii-devil talks about the wrath of God will come down upon us could be in reference to Lex, KO, and Shii deciding to vote out Jerri, or else the wrath of Robfadda and company will come down upon us.


"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by toddE on 03-31-04 at 11:59 AM
Dang, I love Kathy but this discussion makes me think she's gonna do something stupid. The "wrath of God" comment from SA is probably referring to Lex's anger when she and Kathy thwart his plans. They are very dumb to do this, IMO. Perfect chance to take out a major player (perhaps THE major player) in the opposing alliance, and they're gonna blow it? This might be the most disturbing episode since Brandon saved Lex and axed Kelly G.


"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by Spidey on 03-31-04 at 12:51 PM
Yes, but if Amber instigates the Jerri boot to save herself and convinces them to do it, she will forever change the perception of "Lamber." And THAT would be pretty cool. Nothing better than quashing the criticism with what would be one of the all-time best Survivor moves.

"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by pmspml5 on 03-31-04 at 01:31 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-04 AT 01:31 PM (EST)

I totally agree - if she is on a tribe that goes to TC with 4 Mogo Mogo vs. her and she stays - she deserves to win if she gets that far.

"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by HuskiesFan on 03-31-04 at 01:12 PM
Just a thought....

What if the "getting to know you" pairing of teams is to get to see who will possibly give up inside tribe information that could come back to haunt them.

Now Fast forward to the RC...The losing tribe will go to TC and vote someone off, but the "Mad Scramble" occurs when the winning team also arrives at TC to be included in the vote. Maybe someone gave up "too much information" and it will be used against them.

Juat another theory to throw on the fire.

"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by Markopolo100 on 03-31-04 at 02:31 PM
If you're Kathy, you have an alliance of four.

Amber shows up on your tribe, alone.

Join her and screw over your alliance?

THE ONLY way I see Kathy joining her, is that Kathy is "saving" Amber and asking for final four/five privlages.

But Amber can't promise this. Kathy is not helping herself THAT MUCH.


"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by VerucaSalt on 03-31-04 at 02:41 PM
Then again marko, Kathy really felt a connection with Chapera and may even think they have one with her as well

"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by Brownroach on 03-31-04 at 03:00 PM
Kathy is "saving" Amber and asking for final four/five privlages. But Amber can't promise this.

Why can't she? Rob certainly didn't tell Kathy anything about his alliances on the boat. I'm sure Amber kept her trap shut too. All Kathy saw was a happy, fairly unified tribe.

Amber could tell Kathy that Rob wants the three of them to be Final 3. All Amber needs to do is save her own butt so she gets to the merge and back with her old tribe.


"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by VerucaSalt on 03-31-04 at 03:04 PM
yes. Not too mention all the stuff we DIDN'T see happen while Kathy was wining and dining with them. Amber can easily allow Kathy to think that she is more valuable than some of Chapera along with the fact that at that point Lex and Shii Ann will really be desperate and she may have them as extra voting buff.

Regardless of why though, Kathy has shown us that prevailing wisdom may not be her forte. I keep remembering how I thought "uh oh" when I saw how sucked in she got by the good time feeling that Chapera was putting forth.

"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by Brownroach on 03-31-04 at 03:13 PM
And in S4 it seemed that Kathy never dismissed outright anything she was told or any option put before her. She turned everything over in her head 1,000 times. She wasn't averse to taking a gamble when she felt it was a better decision, for whatever reason.

Fortunately her instincts worked out for her then, but the same instincts might be her downfall this time.


"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by KLicK on 03-31-04 at 03:40 PM
We already saw the strategy Amber can use...

When Rob/Amber approached Jenna/Rupert for an alliance they pretended that they were "unconnected" and in trouble. Amber can use that again with Kathy/ShiiAnn (even Lex) by telling them that the Chapera alliance is Rupert/Jenna/Tom/Alicia and that they (Rob and Amber) need MM's help.

"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by Flowerpower on 03-31-04 at 05:48 PM
Okay, let's look at it from KO's point of view. Firstly, an alliance of 4? Do you really think she includes Jerri in her alliance? Do you think she feels that she can really trust her? I think KO probably feels a bond/alliance with Lex and Shii. So now she's thinking what is going to happen when we merge...I'm sure she and Lex have discussed this ad nauseum, we are not privy to this....I just don't think KO and Lex are keeping all of their cards to themselves.

Don't you think that when Amber arrives on their doorstep on a silver platter that it most certainly is going to get them plotting....and considering all of their options. I'm sure that at first it looks like a blatant sacrificial "Lamber" at first, but then they might see it as an actual life line for them, something that can ingratiate them to the Chappy's. So perhaps, when the merge does come, the Chappy's can boot off one of their more annoying members...out of 6 people together, surely their must be one that gets on the others nerves.

Also, if they are ingratiated to the Chappy's, perhaps it will buy them a little more time to re-establish old bonds/alliances. I'd bet that KO is indeed thinking of how to slide into the merge and make as many friends among the group as possible. I'm sure Lex is hoping to maybe play up his past friendship with Big Tom.

And as for Amber, you bet she could promise them the moon if she wanted to in return for life in the game...after all, she is playing this season!

"Why Kathy turns on the Mogos"
Posted by TeamJoisey on 03-31-04 at 07:55 PM
LAST EDITED ON 03-31-04 AT 09:30 PM (EST)

>If you're Kathy, you have an alliance of four.
>
>Amber shows up on your tribe, alone.
>
>Join her and screw over your alliance?
>
>THE ONLY way I see Kathy joining her, is that Kathy
>is "saving" Amber and asking for final four/five privlages.
>
>But Amber can't promise this. Kathy is not helping herself THAT
>MUCH.

I disagree.

Kathy sees the merge coming.
If not right now, then certainly after the next boot.

If she stays with the Mogos to vote out Amber, she enters the merge with a short-handed alliance vs. a very unhappy Robfadda & The Family. The Pagonging begins, and Kathy is certainly within the first three boots.
So she finishes no better than 7th.

If she switches to voting with Amber, and brings Shii-Ann along, then Jerri goes home despite the "wrath of God" from Lex. Mogo enters the merge with a 6-3 disadvantage. She has displeased Lex, but she has appeased da Robfadda. This is good, because Lex has no power at this point, and no alliance. He's already screwed the pooch.

Now look at da Robfadda's new world order: Amber, Jenna, Alicia, Kathy, Shii-Ann, Big Tom, Rupert, Lex. Rob will immediately target the strongest challenge threats. Goodbye Lex, goodbye Rupert. (Good time for the Chica Alliance II, but I'm getting ahead of myself). Goodbye Alicia. Goodbye Tom.
Kathy is still there for the final 5, and she's only one switch (Jenna) from being in charge. She can finish 5th, 3rd... or first.

Is Kathy thinking this far ahead? I don't know. But if she's smart enough she can use Rob's misogynistic, moronic pea brain to move ahead. It's not only the cute girls who can manipulate stupid power-crazed men.

No matter how you look at it, there isn't much value in her alliance with Lex at this point.
And she knows that. It is time for her to make a move in order to stick around for the endgame.


Edited to add this: If Kathy were really thinking, she'd bond with Amber and Shii-Ann to vote out LEX. That way they can avoid the wrath, and arrive at the merge as a bunch of simpering females in need of Rawb's protection and mercy...


Edited to fix the spelling of misogynistic.
Dem big woids is tough!

"RE: Why Kathy turns on the Mogos"
Posted by Flowerpower on 04-01-04 at 06:37 AM
Great job explaining the rationale of why KO should stick with Amber vs. the Mogo 4, Joisey!....You ought to apply to get on Survivor yourself! Excellent foresight and all!

"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by MDSkinner on 04-01-04 at 08:24 AM
>If you're Kathy, you have an
>alliance of four.
>
>Amber shows up on your tribe,
>alone.
>
>Join her and screw over your
>alliance?
>
>THE ONLY way I see Kathy
>joining her, is that Kathy
>is "saving" Amber and asking
>for final four/five privlages.
>
>But Amber can't promise this. Kathy
>is not helping herself THAT
>MUCH.


If Kathy is thinking this way, then she will be very short sighted. You say she has an alliance of 4, so why would she screw them over? The only logical reason for it is because even though they are 4 strong, they are the weaker alliance (in terms of numbers) even if they do vote Amber off. To top it off, she will fully know that by voting Amber off, it will not sit well with the rest of the Chapera tribe, and she could then become one of their targets to get rid of earlier in the process than they might have if she saves Amber and brings her to the merge.

The numbers are not there for this alliance of 4 that you speak of. If Kathy does not help Amber, I will be shocked, because of the fact that Kathy has shown at least some level of foresight. By voting out Amber, it is likely that she would be in turn setting herself up for an earlier exit.

"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by justwrong on 03-31-04 at 03:18 PM
here is one for the 'way out there' category...

what if the loser of the RC (read chapera) has to vote someone out. but instead of out of the game, they vote for a person to vote out of their tribe, and into mogomogo. i could see the other 4 deciding to break up romber by sending her to mogomogo. prolly has more holes than my 1980 dodge colt, but i will just throw it out there.

---of all the things i've lost, i miss my mind the most!

"RE: Disagree..."
Posted by VerucaSalt on 03-31-04 at 03:46 PM
oh and just so we are clear, I believe they used the words "contemplate" with regard to throwing the challenge. That doesn't mean the challenge is actually thrown which is where SA's wrath of God could come from in entertaining the notion of doing it but not necessarily carrying it out.

"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by FrogPrincess on 04-01-04 at 08:42 AM
combined with the digital altering of Shii Ann's buff (from Red to Green)
Rob and Jenna are seen with RED buffs at the challenge. More digital altering?

... i just don't buy this. do you think MB would go to so much effort to spoil the spoilers? isn't he really just catering to the vast majority that just turns the TV on Thursday nights?

i just don't like it.

i don't think the tribes merge. they may live on the same beach but they don't merge and only the losing tribe goes to TC.

... IMHO


FROGPRINCESS
"We got an overweight, gay, naked man walking around, and no one seems to let it bother them" :-D

"The Early Show"
Posted by Loree on 04-01-04 at 09:43 AM
LAST EDITED ON 04-01-04 AT 09:43 AM (EST)

On the Early Show this morning they had Jonny Fairplay and Brandon (Africa) on. Jon said that they learned to really be suspicious of the wording with merge. He thinks they don't merge tonight they just have a twist.

No new vidcaps from TES. Jon thinks Rob will win. Brandon thinks Amber or Jenna will win. They think Lex has made a mistake and the women will turn on him. And Brandon thinks that All-Stars has been boring. He thinks too many of them like Tina and Rich just showed up for the free trip. He is hoping it gets better tonight.

"RE: The Early Show"
Posted by emydi on 04-01-04 at 10:08 AM
Interesting....who TES picked to be in the roundtable today and how they both picked the spoiled "Final three"

I'm not surprised that JFP picked Robfadda. I would have loved to seen them on the same tribe in #####.

EMYDI

"RE: The Early Show"
Posted by TanNymph on 04-01-04 at 11:00 AM
I agree emydi. Robfadda and JFP on the same tribe would have been very entertaining.
"Mancow"
Posted by Crash Thompson Jr on 04-01-04 at 11:11 AM
Anyone hear anything about Probst on Mancow?
"RE: The tribes merge this week"
Posted by FrogPrincess on 04-01-04 at 11:35 PM
insert foot into mouth

well ... this non-believer has converted. the buffs were colored. it is simply amazing the lengths MB will go to in order to confuse us.

FP

"We got an overweight, gay, naked man walking around, and no one seems to let it bother them" :-D