I agree the choice is between Roger/Dave/Alex. And if Roger win's immunity, that of course only leaves Dave/Alex.

Thinking Deena needs Rob more than he needs her, she'll vote against which ever guy Rob targets.

I think Rob is more likely to target Dave than Alex for the following reasons:

1) Dave insulted Rob by not selecting him at the swap.
2) Rob thinks he's been able to manipulate Alex in the past, so he's got the upper hand in that relationship.
3) Daves a "Rocket Scientist" and Rob would like to prove he's smarter than Dave.

I know there are spoilers about Alex and Shawna having a relationship after the show, but I also think the ground work has already been laid for that relationship post SURVIVOR.

LAST EDITED ON 03-24-03 AT 00:38 AM (EST)

Amazing work Krautboy! Well done,thank you!
One thing that concerns me though, why target Alex before Dave?

I know we have all the information about Alex and Shawna dating, and speculation that he joins her in LL. However, it would make more sense to me to vote out the biggest threat as soon as possible. And to me that biggest threat would be Dave. He is the bigger threat because he is obviously in deep alliance with Butch and Roger, as well as a huge physical threat in the immunity challenges. From the new Jabaurus perspective, what might be in doubt is Alex's alignment, he may swing with the women and his new tribe since Dave did not pick him to stay at Tambaqui. Furthermore, Rob and Matthew have already indicated their willingness to vote out Dave, and I think Deena would rather vote out someone from Tambaqui, than her new Jabaru team mate Alex.
The only way that I can see Deena, Rob and Matthew being persuaded away from voting out Dave, would be if Heidi in rejoining the women, said she would NOT vote for Dave, and maybe has Jenna on her side in that respect. Dave might be the puppetmaster at work here too, persuading the girls to talk to Deena about voting for Alex. (that would be so cool to see Dave work them, in contrast to how they have said that they will work the boys with their 'wares')

VanQ1 and Mavsfan, In addition to the misdirection clues, there are several external spoilers that also indicate Alex does not make the jury:

1.KillerDanaH reported Shawna would be voted out pre-jury and that Shawna and Alex were together at "the resort" (Since the jury has been reported to be sequestered on a luxury yacht, Alex must go pre-jury).

2.Boston Guy 1 reported Alex being voted out by Rob, Heidi and/or Jenna after the "switch".

3.TDT reported receiving a tip, apparently from a reliable source, that Alex goes pre-jury.

4.Reports that Shawna and Alex are still dating also supports them continuing their relationship at the lodge.

Krautboy

>Furthermore, Rob and Matthew have already
>indicated their willingness to vote out Dave,
>and I think Deena would rather vote out someone
>from Tambaqui, than her new Jabaru team mate
>Alex.

Could you refresh me on where Matthew indicated that he would be willing to vote out Dave? Rob, yes, I can understand him having a bias against Dave.

I think Dave is safe because Jenna will want to keep him around and Heidi/Christy would probably support Dave after getting to know him in newTambaqui, also Rob is probably the one doing the enticing during the strip-o-rama in IC, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if he cooperated with J/H/C/others in the vote. So, Alex is my call here at the moment.

Excellent work with organizing the vidcaps, Krautboy! I couldn't have put it all together any better than that and it has helped solidify my thinking as to who would be the boot this week -- be interesting to see what promos come up in the next couple of days and the Early Show preview, how they influence the thinking leading up to the show.

"When you get to the end of your rope, tie a knot and hang on."

Krautboy, excellent analysis as always.

KB, I agree with everything you said, and only have this to add:

Roger is edited as a vulnerable target in an attempt to direct our attention away from considering Alex.

Not only this, but he's being edited this way to show why he gets the boot next show (8th place, first jury memmber). They're building the Roger "story arc" even as they use him for misdirection this time.

I also have thought for some time that Roger would (and must) win immunity here in order to be saved. Very reminiscent of Keith in S-2.

Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

SD,bingo! My thoughts exactly. Regardless of the chronology, Roger was a huge target from the get go. His bossy nature has not changed, it was more than likely "softened" while the women were there. That attitude won't bode well at all. This is something I said from his bio.

The ONLY reason why we aren't picking Roger this week is because we have the luxury of knowing the spoiler information that ChillOne and others gave us. So in effect as you stated winning IC was his only option.

While I agree with what most of you are saying that the information as we have it says Alex goes, I agree that Dave is as much if not worse of a target here. More than likely the women have more of a hand in Alex going than Dave because Rob wants Dave gone, period. And Pepe, I recall Rob stating something to Matthew about getting rid of Dave when they merged or what have you and Matthew agreed with him so maybe that is where that is coming from.

Well, Jeanne made it clear in one of her chats or interviews: she wondered out loud why they weren't showing Roger's bossiness. She suggested that he was really bossy while the women WERE there (i.e. it wasn't softened).

As to Dave... it's a matter of target size and threat size. Alex is an immunity threat, and has no alliances. Dave has something of a group with Roger/Butch, and maybe Christy, but not much.

So I suspect that Alex and Roger are bigger targets. But Dave's time is a'coming.

Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged

This is great.

I got it down. just like last week.

so, who will Snewser pick to mess everybody up this week?

I switched to Shawna late last week.
I'm at 80 % alex, 20 % dave.

Another benefit is that by targeting Alex instead of Dave at merge, Rob/Matt can hide their defection from the old Tamb alliance for three more days.

1. Alex voted against Matt and can't be trusted.

2. The men have a 6-4 advantage and can afford to sacrifice Alex (as Boran did with Clarence) and maintain their majority.

An easy sell and keeps the peace for the next few days before the new alliance is outed in E8.

Rob knows enough about the game to understand you never tip your hand too early - see the Rotu 4.

LAST EDITED ON 03-24-03 AT 01:47 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 03-24-03 AT 12:54 PM (EST)

This is EXCELLENT! I'm totally buying into this. Great work!

I also want to add that by voting off a guy, the title of Ep 8 makes more sense... sleeping with the enemy. The alliances come out during TC when an unlikely candidate is voted off... ie Alex. Now the guys (ie Roger and Dave) don't feel safe because obviously they (the girls) needed a guy's vote (or more than one guy's vote) to vote a guy off.

Edited: Maybe Roger the military man makes the comment.. I feel like I'm sleeping with the enemy. Hmmmmm.

”VO: One castaway thinks he controls the game.”
”VO: Is he living a fantasy?”

”Deena: They think that we are so stupid."

I'm beginning to wonder if the "controller" might be Rob. Granted, Roger is take-charge in camp and may be the one being mentioned because of that, but his game seems more about picking a target than marshalling forces. Deena has now had some exposure to Rob's manipulations and could come to view him as a threat because of that, and her game is all about eliminating perceived threats.

ARRRRRRR!!!!

Awesome KB!

I was still thinking of different scenarios until you came up with shadows and interpretations for Deena's comments.

forehead

-- loves it when the sun plays a role in vidcaps.