IHMO, I still can't see how a third tribe would ever work....

Lindsey sounded pissed and worried when she reacted to the message.

I think it would be a total twist that "changes the rules forever" if he made the tribes switch three members--it will REALLY screw with the GXA because one of their own will have to be left out of the party....unless there is a random drawing of who goes where. Either way, chances are strong that the Fab Four is going to be busted wide open....and Silas and LIndsey are in BIG vote trouble.

I like the idea--it will really mix things up and keep the snooze factor of the Pagoning down.

Kim

• Swedish switch,AyaK, 09:45 PM, 11-01-01
  • RE: Swedish switch,TechNoir, 10:16 PM, 11-01-01
    • A Loophole?,IceCat, 10:28 PM, 11-01-01
      • Has anyone seen the actual rules......,anotherkim, 10:36 PM, 11-01-01
    • RE: Swedish switch,shanana banana, 11:54 PM, 11-01-01
  • How About a Legal Opinion...,IceCat, 10:18 PM, 11-01-01
    • RE: How About a Legal Opinion...,Outfrontgirl, 10:52 PM, 11-01-01
    • Reply,AyaK, 11:00 PM, 11-01-01
      • I think Jeff Probst knew about the "twist",heresy, 11:29 PM, 11-01-01
        • Division of the Spoils...,IceCat, 11:43 PM, 11-01-01
        • Water Crisis related to Twist?,Rain Crow, 11:49 PM, 11-01-01
          • RE: Water Crisis related to Twist?,dangerkitty, 00:53 AM, 11-02-01
  • RE: Swedish switch,esquire, 09:21 AM, 11-02-01
    • RE: Swedish switch,TaurusII, 01:28 PM, 11-02-01
• RE: New Twist will save the Game,Rain Crow, 10:54 PM, 11-01-01
  • Welcome Aboard Rain Crow...,IceCat, 11:01 PM, 11-01-01
    • Sig pic,AyaK, 00:32 AM, 11-02-01
      • Heh heh...,IceCat, 07:17 AM, 11-02-01
  • RE: New Twist will save the Game,kreon, 08:31 AM, 11-02-01
• RE: So what will the twist in tribe dynamics be?? Let the spoiling/speculating begin......,Stairway2Dayton, 11:26 PM, 11-01-01
  • RE: Tribal Suicide,ivoryElephant, 00:24 AM, 11-02-01
    • RE: Tribal Suicide,Krautboy, 01:00 AM, 11-02-01
• Early merge probabaly nixed by tonight's preview...,Rain Crow, 00:08 AM, 11-02-01
  • Remember the water buffalo...,IceCat, 07:37 AM, 11-02-01
    • Good argument!,Rain Crow, 08:10 AM, 11-02-01
    • Yes, early merge solves water problem.,Krautboy, 10:46 AM, 11-02-01
      • No challenge footage,AyaK, 11:10 AM, 11-02-01
        • No Reward Challenge!,Krautboy, 04:43 PM, 11-03-01
          • Re: Shattered Alliances,IceCat, 05:49 PM, 11-03-01
          • The water problem is no problem,Swami, 01:10 AM, 11-04-01
            • Water is the EXCUSE...,IceCat, 05:27 AM, 11-04-01
              • RE: Water is the EXCUSE...,dabo, 09:04 AM, 11-07-01
                • RE: Water is the EXCUSE...,Swami, 09:29 AM, 11-07-01
                  • RE: Water is the EXCUSE...,dabo, 11:18 AM, 11-07-01
                    • RE: Water is the EXCUSE...,Swami, 02:02 PM, 11-07-01
                      • RE: Water is the EXCUSE...,dabo, 02:10 PM, 11-07-01
                    • Casting,Round Robin, 02:44 AM, 11-08-01
• First 15 Minutes...,Krautboy, 00:54 AM, 11-02-01
  • RE: First 15 Minutes...,Bobbystareyes, 01:56 AM, 11-02-01
  • On the Contrary...,IceCat, 07:41 AM, 11-02-01
    • Lindsey just seems too pissed to me for it to be a merge.....m,anotherkim, 12:18 PM, 11-02-01
      • RE: Lindsey just seems too pissed to me for it to be a merge.....m,Loree, 04:38 PM, 11-02-01
      • RE: Lindsey just seems too pissed to me for it to be a merge.....m,Rudyrox, 04:50 PM, 11-02-01
• What will the twist in tribe dynamics be??,Slymmer, 05:00 AM, 11-02-01
  • Fun idea, but I think...,Rain Crow, 07:50 AM, 11-02-01
    • Slymmers idea,weltek, 09:16 AM, 11-02-01
    • RE: Fun idea, but I think...,samiam, 03:32 PM, 11-02-01
• RE: So what will the twist in tribe dynamics be?? Let the spoiling/speculating begin......,zzz, 10:19 AM, 11-02-01
• early merge -- interesting photo found,Ogachu, 10:54 AM, 11-02-01
  • RE: back to Diane's friends,bondt007, 11:04 AM, 11-02-01
• RE: So what will the twist in tribe dynamics be?? Let the spoiling/speculating begin......,alleyb, 02:10 PM, 11-02-01
  • RE: So what will the twist in tribe dynamics be?? Let the spoiling/speculating begin......,SurvivorBlows, 02:39 PM, 11-02-01
    • RE: So what will the twist in tribe dynamics be?? Let the spoiling/speculating begin......,Bossman101, 03:05 PM, 11-02-01
  • Agreed on one person swap,Outfrontgirl, 03:27 PM, 11-02-01
• Slight "twist" on three tribes theory...,AmberFan126, 03:28 PM, 11-02-01
• RE: So what will the twist in tribe dynamics be?? Let the spoiling/speculating begin......,Swami, 03:58 PM, 11-02-01
  • RE: So what will the twist in tribe dynamics be?? Let the spoiling/speculating begin......,TaurusII, 04:11 PM, 11-02-01
  • Everyone needs to just RELAX!,TODDLJ, 05:20 PM, 11-02-01
    • RE: Everyone needs to just RELAX!,anotherkim, 06:48 PM, 11-02-01
      • RE: Everyone needs to just RELAX!,TODDLJ, 08:19 PM, 11-02-01
        • The rules etc.,dangerboy, 11:32 PM, 11-02-01
        • RELAX!,Slymmer, 04:40 AM, 11-03-01
          • RE: RELAX!,littlesplitty, 01:55 PM, 11-05-01
    • RE: Everyone needs to just RELAX!,heresy, 10:28 PM, 11-06-01
• RE: So what will the twist in tribe dynamics be?? Let the spoiling/speculating begin......,Wawa, 00:25 AM, 11-03-01
• The one switch,dabo, 01:34 AM, 11-03-01
  • RE: The one switch,Outfrontgirl, 03:54 AM, 11-03-01
    • RE: The one switch,Outfrontgirl, 04:31 AM, 11-03-01
• New "twist" theory...,Bungler, 08:49 PM, 11-03-01
  • GXA in BIGTIME trouble!,Round Robin, 11:40 PM, 11-03-01
    • THE BIG FLAW(An Embarassment of Kims),Rose Red, 00:33 AM, 11-04-01
    • RE: GXA in BIGTIME trouble!,Outfrontgirl, 02:08 AM, 11-04-01
      • AN EMBARASSMENT OF KIMS and A TRIBE OF JERRIES,Rose Red, 01:22 PM, 11-04-01
        • Lindsey's not the onlu one pissed,Round Robin, 00:20 AM, 11-06-01
          • Check out the vidcap thread,dangerkitty, 00:29 AM, 11-06-01
            • RE: Check out the vidcap thread,Round Robin, 00:38 AM, 11-06-01
• The new twist ?,Swami, 00:44 AM, 11-06-01
  • RE: The new twist ?,Outfrontgirl, 01:06 AM, 11-06-01
• Swap includes Water/Food,Sexy Spearchucker, 01:25 AM, 11-06-01
  • KIM! KIM! KIM!,Rose Red, 03:03 AM, 11-06-01
  • RE: Swap includes Water/Food,zzz, 10:13 AM, 11-06-01

LAST EDITED ON 11-01-01 AT 09:46 PM (EST)

Well, let's start with the basics, shall we?

My very first Survivor post on SurvivorSucks (the one that stuck me with the AyatollahKhomeini nickname) was about the Swedish show Expedition Robinson, which was the first version of Survivor played anywhere in the world. In the current versions of Expedition Robinson, each team votes to "trade" a player in the fifth episode (some of you may remember shakes borrowing this gimmick for BlowsVivor). The player becomes part of the new tribe.

I don't believe that there is any immunity that goes along with it, the way that shakes did it, but I could be wrong (do we have anyone here who can read enough Swedish to look this up on the Expedition Robinson Web site? Vamps?).

Since Castaway Productions is technically the producer of all the different versions of Survivor throughout the world, and since Charlie Parsons and Mark Burnett (two of the three owners) have always worked close together on the rules (but not too close, because Charlie is Richard to Mark's Rudy, ifyaknowwhutimean), my first guess is that it will be the same straight one-player swap.

Who gets swapped? For Boran, the choice is probably easy: either Mama Kim or Kelly. (NOTE: This could solve the "nickname problem" if Mama Kim is traded, because then "Little Bit" Kim would have to get her nickname.) But who goes from Samburu? If it's a young person, the OFA regains the advantage (assuming Mama Kim sides with the OFA). But if it's an old person, then Boran learns about all of Linz's votes AND about Silas's votes -- while the Sammies may learn nothing!

LAST EDITED ON 11-01-01 AT 10:18 PM (EST)

I've never been fond of the "three tribes" theory. Yeah, it would shake things up
but would require new camps .. and four folks making new camps at this stage
at best seems like a real boring show. Not to mention the fact that we'd get to
watch yet another wretched watering place. Naaaah ... I'm not buying it.

That being said, trading tribe members has the kind of satanic appeal that Mark is
so well loved for. And he clearly has to do something at this point. After all the
Kumbayas have gotten themselves in quite a little water pickle. Even though it
might be entertaining, he can't let them die even though they are becoming VERY
boring.

But switching one player is just too easy. And as you said AyaK he likes to put a twist
on the ideas he "borrows". The teams are at 6 and 6 now ... it would be an ideal time
to force the tribes to switch three players each. It could be random selection or the
result of some simple minded contest -- after all, he wouldn't want the tribes to be
too much alike -- and give them something like one hour to move. That way at least
he would be certain to break up what is turning out to be the dumbest alliance since
the inception of the american version. (It's really pitiful when Jiffy has to ask them
why they are so stupid.)

... have gotten themselves in quite a little water pickle...

The water issue received a not insignificant amount of coverage today...

Could MB use this a reason for having an early merge... merge at twelve instead of ten... so that the Samburu's can have access to water and water making supplies. This reason for the merge would of course be a sham and the real reason is to shake up the predictable voting patterns that have appeared on both tribes.

Legal Opinion Request:

Could this trumped up 'health and safety' issue provide enough of a smoke screen to make MB's lawyers comfortable enough to tell MB that he could change the rules and not give ammo to Stacey? Is there any reference anywhere to a pre-existing rule or rules that could allow for an early merge under special circumstances.

I have to believe that they are vague enough about the teams to allow just about any scenario....all you have to do to be legal is to keep it fair---the voting process, the equal opportunity.

Just because the players ASSUME that the game stays the same, doesn't mean it has to.

The tie breaker, for instance. They must not have known too many details, or they would be cramming for TC.

I dare say MB can do anything he wants as long as he doesn't interfere with the voting or be too obvious in his evening up of the teams.

>>>>>That way at least he would be certain to break up what is turning out to be the dumbest alliance since the inception of the american version. (It's really pitiful when Jiffy has to ask
them why they are so stupid.)
-------------------------
Hee hee -- laughing my ass off here, TechNoir!! Pitiful indeed..........even I had a good laugh at Jiffy's amazement over how completely moronic the Samburu Gen X-ers are playing the game!!

LOL

shanana banana

I am concerned that a major change in the rules that have been established over two seasons that negatively impacts the power advantage that the GenExers have secured may be interpreted as an overt attempt by the producers to control the outcome of the game.

My question to the legal professionals on the board follows:

At the time of filming for EP5 what was the status of Stacey's lawsuit and what legal advice would MB's lawyers be giving him about any attempts to change the rules.

Having some idea of what MB's lawyers may have been telling him as he assessed his options re: the Samburu tribal split, might tell us if this will be a major rule change or a minor change that has over-hyped for ratings.

Sorry folks, I can only use barter to give you a retainer... Sig pics anyone?

You know I'm not a lawyer, Ice, but then you already made me a sig pic.
As I posted elsewhere, it's possible there could be something in the rules that reserves the right to make unexpected innovations.

The people in TAR seem to have accepted that they will deal with the unexpected, and quite possibly Survivor could be the same.

The lawsuit has to do with Burnett himself talking to people and trying to change their votes/alliances.

A team or tribe is a competitive/cohabiting structure but not an alliance, right? You can switch team players but the alliance remains IF the players choose to remain allied under the new conditions. That would be my take on how this plays out with out any legal repercussions.

Ohh, I have to get back to work, but this darn twist has me hooked right now, so...

First: Stacey's lawsuit is in serious trouble, and it was in serious trouble during the filming of S3. The problem that she has is that the ONLY evidence for her claim is Dirk Been's statement -- and Dirk's statement contradicted an earlier Dirk letter. At some point, whoever is trying this case for her has to fold and go home.

Second: I would expect that Castaway Productions uses a similar agreement worldwide regarding the right to realign teams -- in other words, I expect that the language in the Swedish agreement is virtually identical to the language in the US agreement. Therefore, I doubt that anything prohibits MB from making such a swap.

Third: Keep in mind that anybody can sue anybody else about anything. Therefore, a member of the GXA could sue MB. However, the suit wouldn't survive summary judgment IF MB could show that he was planning to make the change before the game started. Frankly, I presume that he was planning to do just that; he probably even asked some of the people from S1 and S2 about it ahead of time (I'll bet that the Tagi 4 were all asked, which might be why Soozin has legit spoiler info in her TV Guide article).

What would CBS lawyers advise him? Well, if he's doing a pre-planned change, I'll bet that they've already examined the agreements to be sure that he would defeat any lawsuit in a summary judgment motion. He would only have a problem if this change was a gimmick developed in response to the GXA.

In non-legal terms, the standard is to "play fair" (which is different from playing nice, BTW). If this change would have happened regardless of the game situation, then it's consistent with playing fair, and CBS's lawyers would approve of it.

No sig pics, please, I'm allergic.

>Third: Keep in mind that anybody can sue anybody else
> about anything. Therefore, a member of the GXA could sue
>MB. However, the suit wouldn't survive summary judgment IF
>MB could show that he was planning to make the
>change before the game started.
>
> Frankly, I presume that he was planning to do
>just that; he probably even asked some of the people
>from S1 and S2 about it ahead of time (I'll
>bet that the Tagi 4 were all asked, which might
>be why Soozin has legit spoiler info in her TV
>Guide article).
>
>What would CBS lawyers advise him?
> Well, if he's doing a pre-planned change, I'll bet
>that they've already examined the agreements to be sure that
>he would defeat any lawsuit in a summary judgment motion.
> He would only have a problem if this change
>was a gimmick developed in response to the GXA.
>
>In non-legal terms, the standard is to "play fair" (which is
>different from playing nice, BTW).
> If this change would have happened regardless of the
>game situation, then it's consistent with playing fair, and
> CBS's >lawyers would approve of it.
>

One point to note: Jeff Probst did NOT give the speech about not being able to sit out on back-to-back challenges. He also noted at the end of the tribal council that Silas was right when he said that the game was changing every day.

So, this leads me to think that he knew something was going to be different this next episode regardless of which team won immunity.

My questions are:
1) Who gets custody of the water that Boran has?
2) Who gets custody of the extra food that Samburu has?
3) Is this a matter of switching one member? Or three? Or two?
4) Random, vote, or EPM choice?

If only one or two members are switched, questions 1 and 2 are easy. The team which was Boran would get the water, and the team that was Samburu would get the food. Switching three people might raise problems in "ownership".

Is switching one person from each tribe enough to break up the alliances and split friendships as promised in the preview?

(I'm recording CSI, so I can't rewind right now to get the exact words. I'll edit this tomorrow with the exact wording.)

Good point...

A simple early merge into a 12 person tribe would avoid such complexities as division of tribal assets... and who will get custody of little Silas, Lindsey, Brandon, and Kimmy?

IceCat previsously noted that the water crisis for Subaru might be used to justify an early merge. Here is another possibility in which the tribes could undergo a split based on (and justified by) the water crisis.

Current situation is this: Subaru needs water (crisis) and Boran needs food (not a crisis). The water crisis could justify some sort of a twist, somewhat like they used in Survivor 2 when the tribe had a food crisis. They were offered food if they would give up their shelter.

However, since only one tribe currently has a crisis, Jeffie and MB will need to "make things fair". With this in mind, what if the Twist involved Subaru giving up three members for water and Boran giving up three members for food? This would be pretty slick and would follow the S2 precedent of "giving up something for something".

I had a similar thought, Rain Crow. The S2 deal that traded food for shelter - Samburu clearly is in crisis with water. They can't be allowed to go without water. Some kind of trade, yes - they have no choice but to accept. Boran with the food, hmmm - they certainly don't like the plain cornmeal - but it's edible. They also made comments regarding rationing and something about having less than they thought. Clearly there is no other food available.

I'll bet there is some provision in the fine print of the rules that allows a trade. It may well be presented in the same manner that the "food for shelter" deal was presented in S2. Samburu definitely has no choice - Boran could refuse but I think that they will be split on this, and some members may certainly think it would be to their advantage to shake things up.

dangerkitty
Goddess of Words

Trading players seems really unfair. The new member of a tribe has no relationshipo with anyone and will rpobably be voted out quickly.

It also seems unfair. When you play a game you need to know the rules of the game. Trading playres is changing the rules and seems to penalize someone for developing a strategy that works under the prior set of rules.

I would also personally be very disappointed if that occurs. The game is developing in a much different way this year then in the past. I was looking forward to watch what happens at the merge when th eold S tribemembers join with the B tribe

Esquire,

I agree that it could be hard on the new players entering an established group, but (depending on the group dynamics) it could just as well be beneficial. Say you trade KimP and Tom. MamaKim and Kelly would work very hard to get KimP to align with them to make a 3-3 tie (and Clarence would lose any tiebreaker), while the Males would try to keep them apart. Similarly, Frank and Teresa would lobby forcefully for Tom to join the OFA, again creating a 3-3 tie (with Lindsey and Silas losing tiebreakers on prior votes).

As to the question of fair, I have three opinions:

(1) If everybody suffers equally, then isn't that fair?

(2) It makes more difference if it is legal (ie, agreed to) rather than fair, and

(3) MB does not care about fair. He cares about interesting. If it turns out to be fair, fine. If not, if is interesting while appearing to be (mostly) fair, that will be good enough for MB.

Does anybody have any access to what rules were actually agreed to? Now THAT would be interesting...

)O_II

Whatever it is, I can hardly wait! The more or less tribal predictability was beginning to be somewhat of a bore. My enthusiasm has now rebounded higher than the mountain the Boran tribe climbed!!! I loved Jeffie's not so subtle hints about tribal math followed by his evil smile and devilish comment to Silas at the end of TC that the Game is always changing, or there's always someting new in the game, or some such statement!!! Then, Silas' village idiot grin made it clear that the comment had gone right over his head. Great TC!

I agree that Silas and Lindsey will soon be sweating bullets. Interestingly enough, I also think that Braaandon and Kim P will be in a world of hurt. Here's why...

It is clear that the tribes are in for a shake and bake of personnel. I am pretty sure that Jeffie or MB will not dictate the actual people undergoing the transfer. Logical procedure since there is 6 and 6 is to vote/draw straws/or whatever for 3 people from each tribe to trade places. It doesn't really matter how the tribes are split, even though it would be fun to figure out. There are only so many ways you can cut this pie and all of them appear to work to the detriment of the Subaru tribe.

Subaru matrix...

If the tribes get to decide, I would bet the GXA alliance would select Frank, Teresa, and weak-ticket Lindsey to go to Boran. The cocky GXA will gamble on getting one or more of the younger Boran members, and they will probaly think they can give the new younsters a necklace and have them join the GXA at the local Mall. They will also think they will have Lindsey as a mole inside Boran...whatever good that might do (ha!).

If they have to do some sort of random chance the split could leave Subaru with either of the following three splits:

GXA 3/OFA 0 or GXA 2/OFA 1 or GXA 1/OFA 2.

No matter how you cut it, Frank and/or Teresa will be able to let the other side know about the votes against Silas and Lindsey. In fact, since it would be in their best interest to do so, they almost certainly will. No doubt they will also reveal how weak Lindsey is and how treacherous and lazy the rest of them are. The Boran tribe is Frank and Teresa's only hope to stay in the game now. Regardless of what happens to F and T, they will almost certainly bond well with any of the Boran folks and will arrange to vote off (at the first opportunity) whichever GXA is most vulnerable.

Boran matrix...sort of...

Boran is another matter entirely due to their solid tribal bonding. Chosing three will be tough. Do they keep the strongest together? Do they try for some balance? Do they select those who will be lease likely to benefit Subaru? They are clearly aware that there is some division in the Subaru tribe, so do they try to plant a young mole? Any psycologists out there who can help chew on this???

If they have to chose, I would guess they would likely send MamaKim, Kelly, and Tom. MamaKim and Tom would bond with either of the OFA left in Subaru and Kelly could be the mole with the younger group. This split would weaken Subaru while giving M,K, and T a pretty good chance at survival. At the very worst it would be a 3-3 split...and none of these Boran members has any votes against them as opposed to Silas and Lindsey.

Ethan, Lex, and Clarence would maintain a solid base at Boran and this would almost force Clarence to walk the straight and narrow to maintain his alliance since he has votes against him and is a known food thief, which would not play well with any OFA members coming to Boran if it were leaked to them. As mentioned, either F or T will bond well with these three guys and will be able to set up a four or five vote alliance to eliminate the GXA intruders to the Boran tribe.

My read is that the GXA is in deep trouble! Can't wait to see what the rest of you think.

There are going to be GREAT episodes comin up!!! I look forward to the rest of you folks' thoughts and speculations. We are in for an interesting week as we wait for next Thursday!

Y'all are gonna fit in jest right here...

That's one hell of a post #2... Don't think I've ever seen one that well presented.

IceCat, I didn't mean that *YOU* had to get rid of your sig pic, just that *I* didn't want one! Sorry for any misunderstanding!

I must have deleted it accidently... I didn't take your post as being against my sig pic. Heh heh... Kinda funny!

But didn't the promo's say that EVERY alliance and EVERY friendship will be shattered? or something to that effect? If that is the case then T and Frank would not be spilling the beans to save their hides because that is suggestive of a safe Frank and T alliance no matter what happens. I think it's going to be a change in the rules about this alliance type of strategy. The one tribe actually proves that this rule needs to change. Here you are in some other country and your just laying around waitng for that next vote and as long as you got an alliance going you can kick it for a few. I don't think thats how this game was suppose to work. Hatch applied the alliance thing for the first american show and the last one mocked it. This one is headed that way and I think MB decided he wasn't going to make it that simple. Survivor is not just about surviving a vote. Perhaps the day of the alliance strategy is OVER!! It is a bit disgusting to watch such a physically week player like Brandon be a ##### with power just because he has his "friends" backs to hide behind until they don't need his vote. Perhaps tribe play is over and you are each given your own hut and the last person in each competition is OUT!! Perhaps your tibe is now just a community. In the community you must equally divide the food, water etc... Thus you must contribute to the community or else you ALL sufer. You can no longer rely on your buddies to keep you in by an alliance because if you lose the challenge you are the one who is out. If the person who wins the challenge is from your community your community gets equal rations. I like my theory much better than this tribe crap. It just doesn't work anymore.

LAST EDITED ON 11-01-01 AT 11:27 PM (EST)

This twist has the potential to really muck things up for Boran. They don't realize it, but even if they merge at a disadvantage they should be able to pick up the OFAs and use them to do away with the GXA. Who knows what will happen now?

edited to add: I wonder what the Borans think as they watch things develop on TV?

S2D

Ok, lets say that this tribal swap occurs.
For example, Brandon and Kim P go to boran so the oldsters don't give away the secrets. Clarence and Tom go to Samburu.

The remaining Boran would be smart to LOSE the IC on purpose therefore getting rid of the swapped Samburus. Once they merge they can rejoin there former alliances and get rid of the former Samburus.
there are Tons of scenerios, I have just chosen one.

Good point. The problem you describe would seem to require a 3 person swap so that the new hybrid tribes are balanced 3-3, which would encourage someone to swith alliances in order to be part of the new 4-2 advantage. Fascinating!

Krautboy

Final thoughts as I get ready to shut down and go to bed...

As stated at the close of tonight's episode regarding episode 5:

"Get ready for a Survivor first!

Every friendship - every alliance will be shattered!

The survivors thought they knew the game but...

... the Game has changed forever!"

I don't think an early merge would rate such hoopla. Nor would an early merge shatter alliances and friendships. There would just be more of them in one place! Contestants always experience a merge, but have never had to switch tribes on a permanent basis. This twist is clearly something completely different...therefore, I support a switcheroo on tribal members.

Good night folks...will check in tomorrow!

The EP4 preview got big mileage out of Boran's encounter with the water buffalo. When we saw the episode, the incident couldn't have been more boring. MB hypes little to drum up ratings. This major 'twist' will be a lot less drastic than what the the hype is trying to lead us to believe.

Remember the following:

The Samburu water problem got a lot of camera time in EP4. For something like this to drive the old narrative engine for that long (in the second half of the episode), it must have some importance in the upcoming episode.

The big 'twist' will be directly linked to Samburu's water problem (Jiffy Probe will make a visit to the tribes and have a little heart to heart - a la the food for flag incident of Seaon 2). No mention of sub-alliances will be made (in order to avoid any indication that the rules would be modified simply to 'make the game more exciting).

Jiffy will simply say "Water is life in Africa... Samburu - you have no clean water and you no longer can make clean water. Boran you have clean water and the ability to make more clean water. Both tribes have the same number of people at this point... therefore we merge early."

A SIMPLE early merge at 12...

Note that the preview states that the twist will happen in the first 15 minutes. The reason for this is that the reward challenge will be for individual reward and not team reward. The merge must come before the reward challenge.

Note that the preview shows no challenge pics... MB can't show challenge pics if the tribes are wearing the merged team colors.

We won't see challenge pics at all for the previews of this episode - only shots of people in their own clothing or in tribal clothing before the anouncement of the merge.

I particularly like your comments about no challenge footage since that would give away an early merge. I agree that they could show simple contestant shots with personal clothing, etc. I will now be watching the clothing very closely if we are shown any preview footage.

I also suppose the shattering of friendships and alliances comment could come true if a GXA member is voted out after the early merge since the GXA is BOTH an alliance and a friendship (per Braaaandon).

Yep, good argument. For now, I will give it equal consideration with my tribal shuffle. I eagerly await further arguments and, hopefully, new spoiler evidence.

Icecat, I agree that an early merge solves the water problem for Samburu. It also gives Frank the window of opportunity he told Jeff he was waiting for, solves Mamakims problem, and puts the genxer's where they belong, down 8-4.

Early merge also suddenly makes the strong and physically fit targets, and gives Clarence the opportunity to "do well in the challenges", as MB/JP were quoted.

However a swap could also be used to solve the water problem if each person leaving was allowed to take something with them when they swap. (The Boran would be "encouraged", off camera, to take water boiling vessals as they go.)

Another solution would be to have the reward for this weeks episode be the things SamburuII needs to boil water.

At this point,however, I tend to agree that an early merge solves the water problem without penalizing those who won the water, by making them switch to a team that has no water...

Krautboy

Of course, another interpretation of "no challenge footage" is that MB doesn't want to show us someone wearing the "wrong" tribal colors. Even in a one-person swap, the odds of seeing something that would give it away are very high.

Agreed Ayak, no challenge footage is suspicious.

Given the one hour format of the show, alot has to happen in the first half hour, assuming the second half hour will still be the Immunity Challenge and the Tribal Council.

During the "first 15 minutes" the twist will be revealed and explained. An early merge or tribal swap, may very well replace the RC this week. People will have to relocate, supplies and water will be divided up, etc. Plenty of activity to fill the second 15 minutes of the show. I'd speculate no RC this week, therefore no challenge footage.

I also agree with IceCat, that Samburu's water issues were given alot of attention last week. An early merge would solve the water problem, but not fit the desciption of "every alliance shattered".

Only swapping tribe members could shatter "...every alliance...", and it would have to be more than one tribe member to do it.

A 3 for 3 swap makes the split a fair 50-50. The 3 new members are on an equal footing with the old members(3-3).

At the same time, the water problem can be solved by allowing the 3 departing members of the Boran tribe to take their "half" of the water with them and allows the departing Samburu members to take their "half" of their food with them.

The new tribes will have equal amounts of food, water, and voting power. "Fair" to all involved, except for those whose alliances were "shattered".

The logistics of all this will replace the RC, because everyone will get a reward of food and water anyway!

Krautboy

I also agree with IceCat, that Samburu's water issues
were given alot of attention last week. An early merge would
solve the water problem, but not fit the desciption of "every
alliance shattered".

See my thread: "This is NOT Love Cruise" to see my explanation that an early merge can shatter all alliances including the GenExers. Short version here: 12 tribe merge occurs. Frank reveals 4 member voting block along with Silas and Lindsey's current votes to the former Borans. The former Borans vote vote off Silas or Lindsey (if Silas wins individual immunity).

The alliance 'shattering' does not have to be due to a shift in allegiances. The 'shattering' might take place at tribal council.

I don't see Samburu's water problems as such a big issue. They were stupid and broke their pots. Just as when he traded for food in S2, Jeff can arrange a water trade--like all their remaining RC foods, plus their blankets, plus half their regular rations, plus who knows what else, all for a couple of new pots. Maybe galvanized pails would be better for these Mallbabies. Much harder to break.

Swami

The real problem is the predictable voting patterns set up by the GenEx/OFA split. MB wants to shake things up and will use the water issue as an excuse to do so.

Exactly, IceCat. Despite the conditions these players are living under, MB can make certain they all have plenty of food and water any time he wants, he'll just do things in the best manner to progress the game forward and make the best TV he can with it.

That said, I posted this query on another thread, maybe someone over here can help me out. (And I am rephrasing the query for the second time here.) Every good game has an in-built dynamic to progress the game forward. "Survivor" occurs basically in three acts: Act 1, team-building; Act 2, threat elimination; Act 3, individual politics and manipulations. We are still currently in Act 1. Two of the scenarios for the twist, the 3-3 switch and the 3 teams of 4, essentially create new tribes, regressing the game rather than progressing it forward. I don't see how the game could progress under those twists. Does anyone understand game structuring well enough to explain to me how a regressive move could be used to propel the game forward?

"If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

>We are still
>currently in Act 1.

I agree. However, team building can occur with varying degrees of success, or with no success. Samburu's self-destructive conflicts are the latter--team building with no success.

>Two of the scenarios for
>the twist, the 3-3 switch
>and the 3 teams of
>4, essentially create new tribes,
>regressing the game rather than
>progressing it forward.

If whatever twist or switch which is coming results directly & logically from Samburu's team building failure, then it is a progressive correction, not a regression. The game moves ever forward.

IMHO, I think the twist (whatever it may be) will arise quite logically from something Frank & Teresa do or don't do.

Swami

Thank you.

Actually, Samburu does have what appears to be a solid team at this point, the Mallsies just happen to be an incredibly inept team whose ultimate destruction can be seen coming miles away. Whatever MB is up to here would seem to escalate their destruction, but it might also create a situation where one or two of them might actually be able to survive to the final six.

In my opinion the game itself needed no fixing to continue being a good game, things are being shook up simply in order to make interesting television, and what MB really needs to reassess are his casting protocols.

"If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

LAST EDITED ON 11-07-01 AT 02:05 PM (EST)

I guess I think of the whole tribe of Samburu as the team, and the Mallsies as an alliance, which is a different entity than a team. Samburu the tribe competes as a team until merger, regardless of how many or how few alliances form & reform as the game progresses. A tribe (ie team) is more likely to be successful and win Challenges if the alliances do not critically detract from teamwork.

The Mall Rats can't seem to work on two mental tracks at once. They can't separate their alliance from their team. Since they all take everything personally, when they do self-destruct it will make a very big bang. I agree with you that one or more of them are very likely to make it to the final six. Individually, there are some strong, talented people.

I also agree with you that the game doesn't need fixing. However, this is only the third time (in USA) that its been played--major & minor differences are inevitable.

I think we are generally in agreement, dabo. Just a few semantic differences. On with the game!!

Swami

Yes, on with the game! Is it Thursday yet? Damn. Got to hand it to MB, he sure gave us a good week of theorism this time! I still don't know who to vote for, though.

SMILES ARE FREE.

"If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

Dabo, I agree with you 100% about the casting. IMO, MB did a PATHETIC job of casting S3, and he's paying for it. The twist, whatever it may be, will be a weak attempt at bailing his butt out after picking the most boring cast yet. MB needs to do a lot better job of casting S4, or there may be no S5.

It sounds like all the excitement takes place in the first 15 minutes of the show, which is the day after the TC and before the next RC. Not enough time to deal with three tribes, etc. and an early merge doesn't fit the preview description. So, it seems clear that it will be some sort of swapping of tribe members and then back to the regular routine.

If the rest of the game follows the normal sequence, we're only two TC's away from the merge. Boran seems to be in a much better position to plan to reunite after the merge and dominate the game. The Samburu on the other hand will break apart and scatter.

The odds are very good that regardless of which team wins immunity, BoranII or SamburuII, a Gen-xer will get the boot.

Also, Silas, Lindsay and Clarence are the only people with votes at 3 each. Silas and Clarence become bigger targets as they get closer to the merge and individual immunity. The tribes will no longer need them for group challenges and recognize that they are threats to win the individual immunity.

So, it looks like the tribes will swap some players on the day after TC and the tribe that is able to plan a strategy for reuniting after the merge will go far. My money is on Boran...

Krautboy

Actually, Clarence and Lindsey have 4 votes each, while Silas the grinning idiot has 3 votes. May they all leave soon!

The merge has to come in the first 15 minutes because the reward challenge switches from team reward to individual reward after the merge.

The fact that the 'twist' is happening in the first 15 minutes indicates that their will either be an individual reward challenge or the dynamics of the big tribal merge will replace the reward challenge (remember the wine and cheese party in EP2).

I guess we'll just have to wait and see, but she looked upset. Splitting up her group would do that--merging early wouldn't necessarily.

Also, MB used to word split to describe the alliances and the friendships--that wouldn't happen in a merge. It is too specific a word. I think that it will be a 3 for 3 switch. Anything less wouldn't split up much of anything--just doom the switchees. In a 3-3 split, there is a tie along tribal lines in any vote--another interesting twist, especialy if Lindsey or Silas are outed.

The shuffling of tribes would also be closer to the spoiler of the three tribes idea-- a significant change in the structure of the groups.

An early merge just doesn't make sense to me. Hmmmmmmmm.

I don't see why Lindsay or Ethan would be that upset about an early merge. In fact I would think they might even be looking forward to it since they would have new people to talk to.

But the people shown look upset about the news. And I think splitting up the teams (alliances) would upset them. And also they wouldn't be able to show us clips of the challenges because of the players on the new teams wearing new colours.

LAST EDITED ON 11-02-01 AT 04:53 PM (EST)

>I guess we'll just have to
>wait and see, but she
>looked upset. Splitting up her
>group would do that--merging early
>wouldn't necessarily.

Sure it would. She knows that her and her cronies have alienated Teresa and Frank.. she knows that she has four votes cast against her and Silas has three. She knows that Frank will go over there and form his own alliance with the other tribe and see to it her and her "friends" are voted off first. Frank has NOTHING to lose at this point and everything to gain by making friends with the other tribe. I think an early merge is right on.

Oh my goodness but I am really enjoying these points and counter points. Here is my thoughts, I only hope I can impress every one as much as rains did. I never seem to get any great responses from what I post...... Oh well heeeerrrrrreee we go!

__Lets keep it fair and Shatter everything.___

The tribes do not get to choose and make plans for this change, we want to really shake them up so, for the reward challenge we are not going to do anything instead lets have a Treasure hunt. Only notice they get is to bring every personnal item they brought with them to the designated site. Each player has to draw a map of clues at random out of a hat. These clues are going to lead each member off on there own little adventure that will eventually lead them to their new home.

(Cue Lindseys "OH MY GOD!") as she sees a new member of her new team joining her and Brandon was it????

This Saves MB from leagle problems as it is luck of the draw and it pisses everyone off as they have no say in their own fate. It also keeps any one planning for the future merger which will be magically moved from week 7 to week 8 or 9 to allow new hate and alliances form. Who gets the water? Luck of the draw. Same with everything else. Sure you could set up the Random draw so that it still ends up a 3 and 3 split but as to who goes to each three (ha ha ha do I dare say it) Let Mother Africa decide. (intreprite as nature not Linda.)

I do not know, this is all hype and speculation but what does everyone else think???

_____________________________________________________
If Life is but a Dream, what happens when we wake up?

there are a couple of problems with it. First, and most important, it will not solve the water crisis. Six contestants will still not be able to boil water and make it safe to drink, so the health issue remains. Second, and it is admittedly high odds, but in a random drawing with both tribes present, you could still wind up with the same GXA alliance or entire tribe...and they could even wind up back in the same camp. The preview comments clearly indicate a dramatic shuffle, so I think it will be set up in some way to ensure the breakup of alliances and friendships.

Side note...Just popped into my head...the only mention of friendships that I recall is the comment by Braaaandon at the last TC about him always being with his friends. Perhaps the "friendships and alliances" that are shattered BOTH refer to the GXA!!!

I personally believe some sort of random pick will be more fun than letting each tribe pick the swappees. If this happens, I believe each camp will have some sort of random selection process. In this case, it could just as easily be something like you describe as anything. As someone said in a post above, there are a tons of scenarios. Keep on thinking and posting!!!!

The problem with the treasure hunt where they split and venture to their new home is that MB would NEVER let them go off into wild Africa by themselves. Camera Crew doesn't count as a person since they are not supposed to interfere in gameplay AT ALL. So if they did do something like this, it would have to be groups venturing off somehow.

Good points, but I really don't think it will be a random swap. Never underestimate MB's desire to control the game. He wouldn't risk a potential tribe split of, say, Lex-Ethan-Clarence-Frank-Lindsey-Silas versus Teresa-Kelly-Kim J.-Kim P.-Tom-Brandon. Which one would win more challenges, you think?

He's very into the psychological and social-dynamic aspects of the game. Therefore, I think it will be a vote process; whether you have to vote 3 members of your own tribe off, or pick three members of the other tribe, I don't know. Either is interesting from a sociological point of view. And if we know MB, he will force them to make an "instant decision" with little or no planning time. Either way...I'd expect that if MB has the tribes pick from their own, he'd make a stipulation that at least one male has to go, and if you pick from the other tribe who you want, you have to include at least one female. I also see a possibility that MB would have Samburu trade food to Boran in exchange for water and/or boiling pots.

I do agree with Ice Ice Catty that we won't see pics of any challenges this week, just regular camp pics in their clothes.
"If you don't stand for something, you'll fall for anything."

I have just a few thought on various points. First--I don't think they can "change the rules." That would clearly be grounds for a law suit. The question is "are they changing the rules?" We really have no idea because we have not seen the rules (although Stacey's law suit may force the rules out into the public). I suspect the rules allow them to reshuffle or merge tribes at their whim. Just like they can chose a challenge that clearly advantages one tribe (like building a signal where one group has a clearing to work with and the other does not) but cannot directly try to influence who wins or loses (like telling Rudy to vote against Stacey).

If the preview that "friendships will be shattered" can be believed, it cannot be an early merge. An early merge would make sense for safety and water issues, but would in NO way affect frienships or alliances. It would merely--most likely--hasten the implosion of Samburu as Frank goes "behind enemy lines" as he put it. Thus, the only thing that seems to fit would be a split to three tribes (does not seem likely although Sean seemed pretty certain it happened) or a swap (the three-for-three seems most likely to me, but who knows). IceCat, I know you are convinced it is an early merger, but a swapping of members would also be revealed in previews of an RC (e.g., colored bandandas would be on different people), so no matter what the change, previews of any challenge would likely give it away.

One last point. I have heard people say that it was NOT Sweden, but rather Switzerland that had the original version of Survivor. It really does not matter, but it would be nice to know for sure.

LAST EDITED ON 11-02-01 AT 10:59 AM (EST)

In an earlier post, Bungler made reference to a map by Dan Bollinger...
http://www.claycritters.com/map/survivor_3_map.htm

I checked it out and came across this photo. I don't know how much merit it has but I thought it was worth sharing.

http://www.claycritters.com/map/survivor_3_tribal_camp.htm

You will note he caption at the top of the photo reads as follows:

"Mark Burnett has said in interviews that the contestants would live in tribal huts surrounded by a thornbush fence. In a television segment he was filmed before mud and stick huts surrounded by a thornbush fence. The Samburu call this a boma. This boma was taken from the Ikonos satellite and, according to a Kenyan source, is one of the Survivor Tribal Camps. You can see the film crew tents and security crew vehicles. A firepit is evident in the center."

By my count, there are at least 11 huts inside the fence. The location of this picture on the map is relatively close to tribal counsel though. What is everyone else's take on this???

Raincrow - Regarding your comment about Lindsey and Silas "sweating bullets"... I have wondered why the original list of Diane's Friends contained these two, from a different tribe. Here is the list again:

Carl/Theresa/Linda/Lindsey/Silas.

You could be on to something - pointing to a sooner rather than later departure for Lindsey and Silas -

I think the change will be a one person switch between the tribes.

TV Guide teaser:
Episode 5: Nov 8 - "The Twist"
"You've seen the show
And think you know the game
But this being Survivor
Things aren't always the same
So tune in to see
Who's the one they dismiss
This is definitely the episode
You don't want to miss"

The key phrase here for me is "So tune in to see who's the one they dismiss..." I think this refers directly to the twist (and not to the bootee), and implies both tribes will have to choose one person to evict to the other tribe ("the one they dismiss" implies the tribe will have control over who goes).

I agree with the "one will switch" idea.

This summary supports it, it's use in other Survivor productions support it, and Susan's TV Guide writeup supports it (although it seems that she might have been given the wrong Switch Date.)

-SB

I also agree with the "one will switch". I believe, however that MB might offer some kind of immunity for people who agree to switch. This would solve the problem of the swichees being easy targets of the other tribe members.

alleyb and SB,
I also posted the preview wording as evidence on my Susan Hawk thread a few minutes ago. Sorry I hadn't managed to catch up on both threads. I came to the same conclusion independently. It's nice when different people arrive in the same place with the same evidence on their own--maybe supports the reasoning as logical.

Well, instead of dividing into three tribes, how about three groups within a merged tribe? In immunity challenges, you compete with your designated group, and the whole group gets immunity but Tribal Council is played out just like in a normal merge where immunity winners can vote. This would still relate to voting out the weakest since you would want to have the strongest people with you to win "group" immunity. It has to involve the tribes meeting each other in SOME way, due to Lindsey looking out and saying "What?!" or something like that. It was obvious she was looking at someone approaching the camp.

Another possibility that would have been interesting is adding four more people or something right now. It wouldn't work due to knowing when the finale is, but it could have been cool. =)

Teresa & Frank are screwed if they stay with Samburu. The majority of the tribe has rejected them; they are denied the tribal bonding necklace. What if, on the morning after TC they got up early as always, took their stuff and their fair share of food, and headed off to join with Boran? MB seems to be consistent in honoring local African customs. I am sure the Masai have a process to adopt members into their tribe, or at least give them sanctuary. So Boran could accept T & F--they have their own food, they have valuable information on the other tribe, and bring strength of numbers to Boran.

This would happen very early in the show--like over the first 15 minutes, and would be great TV with the two oldsters sneaking out at dawn and trekking across the wilderness while the clueless GXA members sleep on. Power would shift all over the place, but mostly the Samburu GXAers would be screwed over for good.

LOL! This sounds like the most fun option I've heard yet!

I'm not sure it can be squeezed into the rules, but it would sure be fun!

)O_II

This show kicked ass in ratings last year, and CBS and MB had no reason to think it wouldn't do just as well this year. MB and CBS would not do something crazy to the show, like a 3 tribe think, or an early merge. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.
So, what is the Twist then?

Remember that MB and CBS are prone to hyperbole. I can't even count the number of times we were promised an episode of mammoth proportions, only to get some tiny bit of drama.

Just this season, the Buffalo and Lion scares turned out to be a few seconds of very tame footage.

When they say "All alliances/friendships are broken," they MUST be exaggerating. There is simply no event that could break all alliances and friendships short of killing off all the contestants. Beware of the word 'ALL,' it always is a signal of exaggeration.

I think that some sort of temporary swap, similar to the 'girls/boys night out' thing from last season, is the only viable option here. A swap like that could easily put a crimp in alliances.

FOR EXAMPLE:

Frank visits Boran and gives them voting details, making Lindsay and Silas feel vulnerable, but Kim P and Brandon feel safe. Maybe Kim P. and Brandon begin to question the wisdom of staying alligned with Lindsay and Silas.

OR

Kelly visits Samburu and becomes best friends with Kim P., making Brandon and Lindsay jealous.

There are any number of things that could happen from a temporary player swap.

A temporary swap would not violate the rules.

I have yet to be convinced that changing the teams would break the rules.

The premise of the game is two teams compete for rewards and immunity until a merge, then it is every man for himself.

Switching players around between two teams would be perfectly legititmate. It would be briliant, IMO. After two games, the players think they have it all figured out--they came in spouting alliances..there has to be room for change or the game grows stagnant.

I just can't imagine that MB and the lawyers would limtit themselves by making it ironclad that the original tribes are set in stone, especially if they have a tried and true formula to follow.

As long as they don't try to influence the game or change things in midstream, more power to them.

The idea of a temporary swap wouldn't seem to have any impact on how the game is spayed--they've done it before. Even if you look past the hype about the RULES CHANGING FOREVER!!, you have to assume there is a grain of truth in there somewhere.

Kim
I need a sig line

Here's the part that I think would break the rules, or at least be unfair and/or unethical in a game show situation:

a. The contestants and the viewer is told how the game will be played, and the contestants set out with a strategy which they think, based on the construct of the game, will lead them to win. (Example: The website says that tribal immunity happens until tribes merge in 7th episode, then individual immunuity... so, a logical strategy would be to form bonds within your team to keep your team winning team immunity, and to keep you from being booted.) You create an alliance, successfully take power of the team, and have a good shot at winning.

b. Then, halfway into the game, you are thrown some unannounced twist into the game which renders your strategy fatal. Suddenly, being in an alliance in a team doesn't even matter at all. In fact, it completely screws you, because your new team is afraid of you due to your strength. And instead of winning, you are immediately booted because of this change. Everything you have done is wasted.

Would this seem fair to anyone? To the audience? To the contestants? I think not. And I think it would piss a lot of viewers off.

This would SCREAM tampering, as it would appear to be the producers in effect choosing who wins and who loses.

IM STILL NOT BUYING ANY KIND OF PERMANENT SWAP IN TRIBE MEMBERS.

LAST EDITED ON 11-02-01 AT 11:38 PM (EST)

I agree with Icecat about the early merge. It also could create the three tribe dynamic we keep hearing about if Frank and T join with Mamkim and Kelly.

Also, MB and company could interpret the rules to throw some of the GenX's out saying they are conspiring to share the prize (more money) thus ending the alliance strategy forever.

j

What about the Susan Statement of the Weaker ones being the targets again? Everyone thinks this is going to effect the Strong alliances sure they say it is going to shatter them. The game is who can survive. I say good on MB for throwing them a twist or two to get the hype back up if it shatters everything let the pieces fall and see who can Survive.

(need a sig pic)_____________________________________
If Life is but a Dream, what happens when we wake up?

Agreed. Survivor is the name of the game, let's see who can really flow with the punches. Bring it on...bring it on.
<><
Splitt

>This show kicked ass in ratings last year, and CBS and
>MB had no reason to think it wouldn't do just
>as well this year. MB and CBS would not do
>something crazy to the show, like a 3 tribe think,
>or an early merge. If it ain't broke, don't fix it.

Actually, it didn't do as well in the ratings as CBS had projected.

Big business cares more about hitting projections than doing well. For example, when Intel had a record-breaking sales quarter a few years ago, but didn't hit the projections, and the value of the stock went DOWN. At the same time, Apple had lost millions during the quarter, but lost less than projected, and the stock went UP.

This shows how bean counters think. The ratings, especially after the merge, were lower than projected. One of the main complaints that CBS would have seen was the imminent Pagonging of the Kucha, which made the game very predictable for the last 6 or 7 episodes before the last show. After all, the members of this board managed to pick almost all (if not all) of the bootees (in order) after Jeff was voted off. We even picked the right winner.

In the first season, we actually got to watch the main alliance break up and get to the point where they were going to punish a member by voting her off, only to have her win a series of immunity wins. The second season was more predictable, with no outwardly strong alliances other than Jerry's alliance, which was crushed when Mitchell was voted off.

So, why not change the merge? We have evidence from Les Moonchild that changes would be apparent around merge time. We also have evidence that EPM had originally planned to start filming S4 in Jordan BEFORE the first episode of S3. After September 11th, he had to reschedule and relocate S4 -- they may be waiting to see how well S3 does before putting more money into it. However, the original plan may well have been to make the change to the merge without letting the contestants in either S3 or S4 from knowing about them. All the better to have tribes with deep splits into them right before the surprise!

Changing the merge is one of the best ways to keep the game "fresh" and have people watch it and talk about it at the water cooler. It's the talking around the water cooler that made the first season such an unprecedented hit. There wasn't as much talk about the second season. Again, EPM and CBS could never have known that the ratings this season would be so bad, especially considering the projections.

If there isn't a major change in the merge this season, look forward to it in S4 (if it gets off the ground).

I'm new to board, but wanted to add my two cents.

If there were to be a trade between tribes, MB wouldn't let the teams really know what the effects of their decisions would be. One way to set it up would be girls from both tribes meet and are forced to decide which boy from each tribe gets traded. Meanwhile, boys may or may not be doing the same thing.

Don't forget that MB plays these mind games even with people playing the game. They try to make logical decisions, but not know if the others are doing something else. So if they try to vote someone weak off, they are risking their own livelihoods in case they, themselves are voted out by the opposite gender.

At the same time, alliances become terrified to trade away those they DON'T trust just as much as those they DO.

A TOTAL head game.

Not sure my logic will hold up, but hoping for something else to really screw with the conniving GXA
-w

Each tribe switching one player with the other tribe seems the one that fits best with the Sue Hawk piece, particularly the bit about voting out the weakest instead of strongest (which is garbage, that's week 6 not week 5; in fact I'm starting to wonder if Sue wrote that piece or just took her money and is keeping her contractually obligated mouth shut about it).

Anyway, if it's a matter of vote one of your own over to the other tribe, the two obvious choices are to vote out someone not in your alliance or someone who is the weakest (in line with Sue or whoever) ie. biggest challenge detriment. Essentially, you are sending someone to their doom, at least you would be in normal tribal situations.

So, the obvious choice for Boran would seem to be Mama Kim, unless the EKLT alliance is in fact in place; second choice Kelly.

Samburu doesn't have anything like a normal tribal situation, though, so they've got a big problem, because if they send over Frank or Teresa that person will spill the beans about Lindsey and Silas votes, and may even have a chance of working into the Boran. But if the GenX send one of their own (Brandon, please send Brandon, that would be so funny!) they're back to even-up, three GenX to three others, with Lindsey and Silas carrying many votes and so being at risk under the deadlock rule.

I don't know what's going to happen but watching those kids try to figure their way out of that one would be some of the best TV yet this season.

"If the race of man should be left naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks. A few individuals might linger, but in a year would become worse than monkeys." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")

LAST EDITED ON 11-03-01 AT 04:03 AM (EST)

dabo,
>>particularly the bit about voting out the weakest instead of strongest (which is garbage, that's week 6 not week 5;
I think there might be a mix up here (maybe mine!), so, to clarify:
1) we have a preview that says one will get dismissed in Ep 5, and that rules and alliances change, etc.
2) Sue's piece is for the following episode, #6, for which we don't yet have a preview (far as I know). As I think you're saying, #6 is the last team competition so the tribe might want to vote out its biggest individual immunity threat (although this didn't happen on S2 due to the Michael burn).

Sue is saying things have changed and now they will continue to look to the weak players as bootees even in Episode 6. I have suggested that this intimates that team competitions continue into Ep 7, the traditional merge time.

The advantage would be that no alliance can hold the power over the whole merged tribe, only their own team. IMHO the individual challenges start too early in the game and produce predictable dynamics. If they merged first but still had team competitions for a bit, there would be more interaction to mix up original tribal loyalties and allow more interesting alliances to form--particularly if the teams have swapped a player.

I disagree with those who feel Burnett had no reason to anticipate a ratings drop if he didn't freshen the game dynamics. MANY viewers stopped watching S2 after Varner got booted, because they thought it too boring and similar to S1 to watch one tribe pick off another. I absolutely think MB knew it was time for alliances to play out in new patterns in order to keep viewers throughout S3. I believe he made plans to tweak it prior to production and not in direct response to any crises of resources or the Samburu fracture.

I also do not think the twist gets initiated by the players, but by the producers. At this point we have a preview which shows them getting mail with instructions that surprise them, so this part seems definite to me.

To address the popular idea of 3 teams competing--I think that would work for no more than 2 episodes. You can't have a good competition between a 2-person team and a 4-person team (worst case where same team loses twice). Or 4-4-1? Doesn't work.

In any case, Burnett likes head-to-head opposition in team competition, which means two teams in any one challenge. Of course I am ready to be wrong about this, but that's what I think from observing Burnett's patterns.

My question is whether Burnett is ready to try a situation where two teams compete within one tribe and not stay wedded to the idea that only separate tribes can compete in team challenges.
Response anyone?

CBS has added a little to their video preview on its site:

Clarence (confessional): I can't believe this is happening
KimP or Lind: OMG
Lindsey: we all kind of just panicked
Lindsey (I think): what the heck? (in a high pitched scratchy semi-shriek)

Closing lines:
"And the only people more surprised than you will be the survivors themselves"

It's not business as usual... fer sure.

Hi gang...

Sorry I haven't been active since Thursday evening. Hellish ISP problems. Just got back online today and have spent HOURS poring over posts everywhere, and here's my take on this "twist."

We know for certain that CBS is hyping this new twist as occurring in the "first 15 minutes." They're really emphasizing that fact. This brings me back to the basic structure of the show (four fifteen minutes segemnts: first 15 minutes tend to show tribe scenes & RC, second 15 minutes show more tribe dynamics, third 15 show IC, fourth 15 show TC and politics leading into it). Now let's look at that again, WHAT always tends to happen in the first 15: REWARD CHALLENGE. I don't necessarily think that MB is going to forgo a reward challenge this week, but I do think he's planning something big. Now what theories have we already heard: early merge, two tribes split into 3, and a couple variations on the Expedition Robinson-style tribe member swap. What if it's none of those and turns out to be a simple Reward Challenge? Or maybe not so simple.

Okay, I'll stop being obscure and get to my idea. First 15 minutes is always Reward Challenge (except on the first, merge and final episodes). What if this week's Reward Challenge goes along these lines: Win this nifty Reward and you get to poach a member from the opposing team. This would definitely have the possibility of breaking up alliances and friendships, even for the winning tribe. Say, for instance, Boran won just such a reward. Who would they poach? My guess would be Silas. If they took Silas from Samburu, that'd break up the Mall Alliance, or at least deal them a serious blow. In the previews, we see Lindsey & Brandon reacting in a very shocked and dramatic fashion. Lindsey saying "Oh my god!" and on the web preview saying "We all just kind of panicked" and later seems to be shouting in frustration "What the hell?" We see no such dramatic reactions from the Borans. The only thing close is Clarence's rather relaxed sounding "I can't believe this is happening."

If this comes to pass, even the winning tribe would be dramatically affected because we know that Silas (and anybody in the game, for that matter) is playing with alliances and winning the $1M in mind. How would a newcomer affect pre-existing alliances within the winning tribe? What alliances would s/he try to worm his/her way into? Would s/he try to start a new alliance within that tribe? How would someone like Clarence, for instance, feel if someone like Silas were the one poached (Clarence already feels vulnerable, and with a muscular young guy moving into his tribe, Clarence's own muscle might not be as valuable as it was for him before)? How would it damage the alliances or spirits of those in the losing tribe (Samburu losing two males -- Carl & Silas -- would be horrendously painful for them in the next two ICs)? How would the poached tribe member feel having to go into the next IC trying to defeat his/her old friends for the next two weeks?

I think this is a very strong possibility. It's just as likely a new twist as any of the others we've considered, and it fits the bill for all the hype: occurring in the first 15 minutes, breaking up friendships, breaking up alliances. Plus it takes care of some of the concerns we've had: MB not messing with the rules and courting another possible lawsuit, Borans feeling upset because they earned the water and now lose it (if they lose the challenge and Samburu poaches one of them, that seems a lot more fair than an arbitrary swap, or manufactured 3-way tribe split), someone having to build and maintain a new camp in a 3-way split, etc., etc.

What do you guys think?

We have seen several different scenarios discussed here, and frankly, I think Lindsey would be pissed if ANY of them happened. What do they all have in common? Every one of them involves some kind of tribal realignment that would bring a former Samburu member into the Boran tribe, or into a merged or "third" tribe, before the GXA would get the chance to vote the person out. Logically, since Frank and Teresa both have reason to dislike the GXA, any tribe swap or third tribe or early merger runs the risk of bringing them into the same tribe with people who don't yet know about Lindsey's votes, which of course she doesn't want for fear they'll spill the beans. But if the old rules were to hold, the GXA could throw both the next two ICs, giving them the opportunity to vote Frank and Teresa the hell out of Africa before they have the chance to tell any of the Borans that Lindsey and Silas have votes against them. So it is understandable that Lindsey is pissed no matter WHAT the change is, and if I were Silas, I'd be just as pissed.

This is my first ever posting. I'm a survivor sucks virgin, so be kind. I'm so obsessed by this TWIST! We've heard about it for a lonnnng time, so I think Mark Burnett(Satan) planned this ages ago. There's a flaw in the game, which is the strong tribe votes off the weak. I agree it's two tribe set-up seems to be a strength, but the alliances, the alliances have to go. Did anyone notice how last year(s) the alliances were much more hidden? For instance, we NEVER saw Colby/Tina alone AT ALL! If we'd seen that, then the whole plot of S2 would be given away. Something similar may be going on here, but it's going on at the Boran, and not at the Sambucco tribe, where everything is far too painfully obvious.
MB(Satan) had to spice things up A LOT, and yes, the ratings are sagging, sagging, sagging. So this couldn't come at a better time. It's not a merge. That's a couple of episodes away AT LEAST.
Jippy Fop has been talking about the merge as a set thing at Epi.7. HOWEVER, the arbitrary swap of three people, well, I thinks that's what's gonna happen. It's quick. It's easy. It comes in tree mail form. They draw straws.It's fair. It's square. It's a done deal.
And I think this TWIST has to live up to its hype, or let's face it, this whole show is going down. It needs something big to lift it, and a three-three swap would do it. It would only be for one, or maybe two episodes and then we're at the traditional merge point,anyway. Then things will be more "normal" or will they ever. And why should they be? Isn't that tantamount to PREDICTABLE? Who wants things to be "Normal" on Survivor? WE WANT GRRRRREAT TELEVISION!
We all know too much(except, it seems, the Beadie Babies.) Also, SURVIVORNEWS lists this as first choice in their current poll. They must be on to something.
The water is a non-issue. The three going to Sambucca bring jugs and water with them. They will be welcomed. I'm guessing it's Lex, Kelly and Kim J. Or at least for sure Kim J. and Lex. This puts her and Kim P. onto the same team, and FINALLY explains their nicknames.
This is also totally bust up ALL alliances, including Lex's and Tom's since that's what's promised, not just the Playskoolers. Frank, Lindsay and Brandon end up with the Boran. And Frank and Teresa BOTH spill the beans on the Playskoolers. In the Boron tradition of ONLY voting off women, they get rid of the Walking Mistake - the Linzer Tart.
Maybe it's only one episode that stays this way. Then they go back and the Mallbrats gang up on Teresa, hence her place on Diane's list. OR it doesn't revert and the NEW SAMBUCCOS vote off Silas.
I think it's more interesting to let the two new tribes sit with each other for two episodes and then they merge,anayway, after all. And will new alliances be formed? Hmmmmmm...Maybe,this makes it all VEDDY INTERESTINK, but I'm betting these first ones like the Tom-Lex-Ethan one will last. There's a Colby-Keith-Tina bond there, or maybe it's Lex and Ethan who are the Colby-Tina clones. We're not seeing it, of course, but then we never saw the depth and power of that alliance til the final episode. If Diane's list holds then the Linzer Tart and the Wood Chip are going on a Surfin' Safari with the Postwoman,The Policewoman and the Dentist.
Also, I don't think Mark Burnett gives a flying buck about lawsuits. It's HIS SHOW and he owns it and these are HIS rules. Also, remember there's a Standards and Practices person standing right there on the set this time. No. It's not against the Mawlers, though they are going to react that way, at first, and that's the way it's gonna play. He HAD to set this up WAY in advance, and Les Moonves, in his comments, knew all about this and couldn't have been happpier. Sorry to go on, but do let me know what you all think. Hey, you guys are more entertaining than television!

Welcome to SBlows, RedRose and RoundRobin.
I see lots of merit in your ideas and my apologies for being too tired at this point of the evening to fully respond to your theories. Someone else will...

Something to think about re your remark, RoundRobin, that the Samburu want to cannibalize and prevent Boran from learning of their prior votes. They cannot prevent that if the last Samburu is going down... That Samburu has no need for false loyalty to the GXA's, especially if they were to throw two challenges.

Remember how in S2 Kimmi let slip to Tina about the prior votes for Jeff, before or after the cliff-jumping challenge? The information can be conveyed prior to merge if someone wants it to get out.

I think there'll be a big twist and the GXA won't get the chance to cannibalize even if they wanted to. I just wanted to point out they CANNOT protect that information and it's their own fault they're at risk--all because they were arrogant to members of their own tribe.

Basic Survivor tenet: it's a really bad idea to flaunt your power. That WILL come back to bite you.

Nice to greet you, too, OutFront Girl. My posting should have said "An Embarassment of Kims". The "S" got cut off. And yes, you're right, the Playskoolers are the WORRRRRRRRRRRRRRST! And the editing of them is poised to make us NOT like them. They are all probably shocked in their little home towns, watching this, how they come off. I heard that Jerry was shocked, too. She has said in many places that she spent a lot of time "apologizing to people, but they never showed that." Mitchell of S2, who I actually met, said that, too. "We were all cranky and making remarks like that, but they didn't show that. They just showed Jerry doing that."
Of course, Jerry gave MB and the whole of S2 a dynamic that it might not have had if she wasn't so unbelievably HATEFUL. Now, however, we have a whole TRIBEFUL of Jerries, the Mawlers. So that is the engine that is powering this show now. WE WANT TO SEE THEM GO DOWN! And it will fill the audience with delight as they do. Lindsay next week, Silas the week after, and Brandon - it's amazing that he's gotten THIS far.
The editing tells you who to like and not like. Like that exultant mountaintop tribe shot of the Boran. My heart sang. But how the **** did they get there? According to Dan Bollinger's maps that mountaintop is MILES away, and they would have to have been transported there. They probably were. But it was a GRRREAT shot. So the editing says "Hate the Mallrats" and "Love the Borans" I guess that's telling us a Boran will win. Right? They NEVER Tina in a bad light, if you remember. Did she ever have a bad moment? We didn't see them,if she did.

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-01 AT 00:30 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-01 AT 00:24 AM (EST)

I've been seeing the promos over the last couple days, and though Lindsey has gotten the most attention here for being unhappy with the change, she's not the only one. There is a brief clip of Tom in the promo with a VERY unhappy look on his face. And the others shown look unhappy or shocked. I don't have a clue which of the scenarios discussed here at SB, if any, was what MB did, and without knowing which one I am CLUELESS how it's gonna affect the game, but just going by the looks on people's faces in the promo, whatever MB did was BIG and really upset the apple cart.

Welcome, Round Robin - and re: your thoughts, check out the vidcap thread. Quite a number of the preview shots are from previous episodes, including the one of Tom! MB is not playing fair (gasps of shock all around).

dangerkitty
Goddess of Words

Well, we all know MB doesn't give a crap about being fair! If he wants to keep selling new Survivors, he has to keep the ratings up, so I doubt he'll really much care who he screws! Contestants OR viewers!

I haven't got this fully thought out to my satisfaction yet, but I think there will be some kind of exchange of members between the tribes, and that it will happen by means of the RC, not instead of it. Both of these teams feel very needy now--Samburu for water; Boran for palatable food. So if the devious MB needs a mechanism to shake things up, a reward challenge is just the ticket.

How about this--the tribes are brought together for a reward challenge. The winners' prize is very desirable--maybe jugs of water nestled in a nice iron pot (or maybe Mountain Dew--we haven't seen any obvious product placement in this show yet), along with some food item, pizza? Here's the twist--each tribe must pick 3 champions to represent the tribe & compete for the prizes. They have 5 minutes to pick their three. I'm guessing the GXA will put three of their own on the competition team.

RC proceeds & somebody wins it. Then the very anal Jeff Probes announces this twist: The winning team, Samburu or Boran, can keep the prize, but those who were competing must pick two people from their tribe--one from the 3 contestants and one from the 3 sitting out, to go to the other tribe. They cannot discuss it with the people who are sitting out, because they were already chosed by the tribe as a whole to take part in the challenge. They have 5 minutes to talk it over, then state their choices. If they can't decide they forfeit the prize to the other tribe, which then has the same choice to make. (I'm not sure how the RC-losing tribe loses two people so the tribes stay even. Maybe they draw straws or something like that--a random choice.)

Now that i write this down it looks kind of stupid, but this is all the time I have til tomorrow. Anyway, I think MB will set up the twist within the reward challenge, and I think it will force some kind of exchange of players between the tribes.

I think RC will probably be part of the twist announcement.

I don't think Boran is that desperate for food--nothing on the level of S's water problem.
Based on--Boran member conversations (Insider or last ep) that they didn't even care about RC, they had water and would eat the grits. They were going to focus on not losing another member.

They won't voluntarily let go of someone for a reward, IMHO.
I think the twist will be mandatory.

LAST EDITED ON 11-06-01 AT 01:30 AM (EST)

Based on the previews, this episode will definitely involve a swap of tribe members. A third tribe wouldn't solve the water/food problems and seems unlikely to me since "every alliance" wouldn't be shattered.

In a 50/50 swap among tribes it's logical to assume that 50% of the belongings of both tribes will follow the former tribe members. This would take care of the water problem with Samburu and the not so big food problem with Boran.

Doesn't the swap also put some more credence into the KimJ/KimP nicknames?

This makes at least *some* sense to me. Any comments would be appreciated.

Sexy Spearchucker

Yes, sexy spearchucker, it's inevitable that Kim P. and Kim J. end up on the same team, whether it be the Sambuccos or the new third team. Kelly seems to have gone over to the dark side, too, with her Playskool necklace in the Promo Vid Caps. See KELLY thread. And no, it doesn't involve food or water or a challenge. It's a mandatory change issued from ON HIGH via tree mail, and there's nothing they can do about it. We see Lindsey staring in shock at what looks like a tree mail delivery. Also, they all look soooooo upset! No, something BIG is up,and nearly all of them, except Lex and Kelly seem upset about it. Mark Burnett (Satan) knows he's got to deliver on this BIG surprise. It cannot be just a waterbuffalo stand-off like last week, which was almost as boring as the lion stand-off, the week before.Sometimes I wish the animals would attack someone(namely Lindsey) and EAT THEM! Talk about throwing Christians to the lions! That was the Roman Empire's version of Entertainment. Has anything changed, really?
It's got to be something major or Satan's gonna lose all his best viewers, namely US!!!!!!!!!!!
Also, notice, if you will, ALLLL the Borons(except Kelly!!!) swearing what seems to be allegiance to each other with a five way handshake in the first vid cap of the new promo. They all look like they know they won't be together for a while, don't they? And where is Little Nelly Kelly? Getting a new necklace and a makeover at Sambucca.

Hey Sexy--

I have made many of these points many many times over the past few days (those who read every post are probably pretty bored of reading me repeat myself so much), but you have obviously missed it, so I will do it again.

The three tribe scenario DOES solve the food/water issue because the three tribes will live in one location (per Jeff V's statements when visiting BB2 over the summer--there is actually a post below that originated on Sept. 2 that discusses this). Thus all Suvivivors would share all supplies--ta da--no more water crisis.

As far as breaking alliances, the three tribe approach does a much better job than the three member swap of doing this (I did not come up with this analysis initially, but I find it very persuasive--sorry I cannot remember who first came up with it). In a three member swap, three out of the four GXAs are likely to be in the same tribe and thus be an alliance. Basically, most likely, it would be a three/three stand-off in each tribe between the members of the old tribes voting together as necessary survival protection. Thus is would just be like a merge situation where the old tribal alliances go at it for the first TC and then the winning side picks off the other side. Not much alliance breaking going on there.

Now imagine a three tribe scenario in which the two losing tribes have to go to TC to vote off one person out of the two tribes. Rather tricky to maintain alliances in that situation. Let's call the new tribes A, B and C. If A and B go to TC, do former members of Boran on A agree with former member of Boran on B to try to kick off a former Samburu on A? That puts tribe A at a disadvantage for future challenges. Do former members of Boran on A try to kick off a former member of Boran on B if that is B's strongest player and it would weaken B in future challenges? That might go against an alliance of all former Boran members. The complexities are numerous--leading to less predictible voting patterns--exactly what MB is seeking. Thus, while MB cannot force a destruction of alliances, the three tribe approach is the best way to test them and make them more difficult to maintain.

Thus, if you are looking for which approach is more likely to be seen as shattering alliances--I think the 3 tribe scenario is much more likely to be seen this way than a swap of 3 tribe members.

As far as the Kim/Kim nicknames, remember if they are all living in 1 location, even if in different tribes, it would still be necessary to come up with nicknames to distinguish.

I will say for the umpteenth time--the ONLY theory that is consistent with ALL the clues and inconsistent with NONE of the clues is the THREE TRIBE theory. Of course, if it does not happen, then MB threw some red herrings at me that I ate up, but at this point, I maintain that all the clues lead to three tribes.