LAST EDITED ON 07-07-07 AT 03:11 PM (EST)

Everyone who has been following TDT’s excellent spoiling page on his site, knows who the next boot should be. According to the picture of the episode 8 expedition:

Joe Don seems to be on the white “Outcast’ crew. So, how could JD get the boot this week? The easiest answer is that the Red Crew wins.

We know JD and Louie are on the red crew. TDT thinks Nessa, Kendra and Christa are there also. I don’t know if one of the black crew women will follow RudyRules’ sabotage idea . That brilliantly machiavellian plan has only one flaw. Rudy forgets to consider that we are dealing with DAWs who are usually stupid players! Whichever way the red crew's victory happens, the boy’s club would get stripped of their officer status and return to being deckhands. Who would be captain? I’d say Christa! The woman have a 3-2 majority in the red crew and can control the vote. Christa has been the best all-around athlete of the remaining women. Anyway, whichever woman gets picked, I suspect the other 2 will be the officers, giving rise to “Girl Power” and all 5 men have to work for once!

Who would get the Black Marks? 3 men of course, to bring the numbers to an even 4, perfect for the next expedition…they think. Which 3? While Nessa would probably lobby to save JD by saying Jay and Ben have never been nominated, I suspect Christa, or any other woman, would put up all 3 prior captains. JD can’t keep the pardon and in a group of voters that would include Jay, Ben, Laurel and Jupiter, I can see him getting at least 2 votes, with Christa deciding to cut him adrift, if necessary.

Can JD get the boot with a black crew win? Certainly, especially since we don’t know the rules of the game. If there is an unsuccessful mutiny, what happens? Does Azmyth, as the captain that has just been saved from mutiny, get to choose the bootee? It could be that, with dwindling numbers, Azmyth only has 2 black marks to give, nominating only JD and Louie. It’s also possible that the women realize that it’s dumb to keep the men to win expeditions but get each other cut adrift. Still, it seems to make more sense that the red crew wins.

• RE: Why Red Crew will win!,KObrien_fan, 05:25 PM, 07-07-07
  • RE: Why Red Crew will win!,Scarlett O Hara, 04:15 PM, 07-09-07
    • RE: Why Red Crew will win!,KObrien_fan, 05:20 PM, 07-09-07
  • RE: Why Red Crew will win!,Georgianna, 08:19 PM, 07-09-07
• RE: Why Red Crew will win!,RudyRules, 09:52 PM, 07-08-07
• RE: Why Red Crew will win!,Scarlett O Hara, 04:32 PM, 07-09-07
  • RE: Why Red Crew will win!,michel, 09:12 PM, 07-09-07
    • RE: Why Red Crew will win!,CTgirl, 10:00 PM, 07-09-07
• RE: Why Red Crew will win!,Scarlett O Hara, 07:52 AM, 07-10-07
  • RE: Why Red Crew will win!,dragonflies, 08:22 AM, 07-10-07
• RE: Why Red Crew will win!,Spanky68, 02:23 PM, 07-11-07
  • I missed it by that much!,michel, 05:38 PM, 07-11-07
    • RE: I missed it by that much!,Spanky68, 01:11 AM, 07-12-07
• RE: Why Red Crew will win!,emydi, 02:49 PM, 07-11-07
  • RE: Why Red Crew will win!,Spanky68, 01:09 AM, 07-12-07

First off, I haven't read any of TDT for this season. Second, if they were going to have a ghost tribe, and I do believe they will be but based on something totally different, then they would do it when it was 8 people left for 8 vs 8. That leaves a couple times before JD has to be cut adrift if he is one of the ghosties. Also, I don't know how this proves a red team win because if red wins they would put Jay, Ben and Azmyth on the block, not JD unless they are threatened by his kissing Nessa.

Also, I don't know how this proves a red team win because if red wins they would put Jay, Ben and Azmyth on the block, not JD

Not unless Jay is aligned with one of the women on the red crew-- perhaps Christa. If Christa is the captain, she could pick Jay to be her officer and that would take him out of the running. I do like the idea of putting the three captains up for the vote -- Azmyth, Louie & JD up there. In that scenario, it probably would be JD who is set adrift.

But that doesn't make any sense. Jay, Ben, and Azmyth will all be on the black team and if they lose, then they wouldn't be eligible to be an officer.

"... if they were going to have a ghost tribe ... then they would do it when it was 8 people left for 8 vs 8."

Perhaps this is a Grand Opening Double-Drift Tuesday at MateyMart?

Michel,
I agree that the RR gambit is highly unlikely... for the very reason you mention... stupidity.
I would love to see it happen though. You never know, maybe they'll surprise us!

and perhaps a more important question would be, "How does Joe Don get set adrift this week?"

I think it is because one of the three black-marked peeps buys and uses the immunity. If the red team wins and it is indeed the three past captains Louie, Joe Don & Azmyth, than Azmyth would be most likely able to afford the Royal Pardon. Although, would he need it if Joe Don can not buy it back?

If the Black team wins again and nominates Louie, Joe Don, Nessa/Kendra, than one of the two girls would most likely buy and use the Royal Pardon. But can they afford it?

LAST EDITED ON 07-09-07 AT 09:16 PM (EST)

Scarrrrr, "How can JD get cut adrift" was the title I wanted to use but since we don't have a separate Spoiler and fanatic thread, I didn't want to give away TDT's spoiler on the front page.

For PM's first (and last?) season, I wanted a title that would reflect the enthusiasm of Survivor's first season where we had titles like: "Why Rudy wins the million" or "Rich cannot win." That being said, I do believe having the red crew win goes well with a JD boot. It evens the number of men on both crews for next time and it fits with Christa's talk last episode of being a ruthless captain and that it's time for women to be in charge.

Except for her vote for Kendra, Christa has always voted with Jay's voting block. I don't think she'd give Jay a black mark and Ben is UTR just like he said he wanted to be in episode #1.

Scarlett - According to TDT, everyone has at least $12,000 (Laurel has the least at $12,000) so anyone could afford the pardon.

Having the red crew win is an interesting thought – I just watched last week’s show tonight. My thoughts were that J.D. would get voted out because he isn’t protected by the Royal Pardon (this past week the Tremendous Trio decided to cut a weak crew member and assumed J.D. would buy the pardon). He won’t be protected this week so they’ll take advantage of that. All the talk about girl power could be that they decide to keep their numbers and vote against J.D. instead of keeping the red crew strong. I don’t know when a female becomes Captain because we are also hearing some whiffs of mutiny. Laurel could lead that charge. I think Ben and Jay will cut Azmyth’s throat when the time is right. Azmyth’s Captaincy is being set up for a downfall and I was thinking it’ll be by mutiny – after J.D. is cut adrift. Part of me thinks it will be status quo until “spirits in a material world” show up (kind of like how the merge shakes things up). If the outcasts win, the girls could vote in a female captain then.

It would be great if things get shaken up this week - I'm tired of Azmyth's affectations!

Good points, Michel and CTgirl. Thanks! But the question is still not answered. How does Joe Don get set adrift? In order for him to be set adrift, one of two scenarios have to happen. First, he receives the most votes from the crew and second, he receives the second most votes from the crew and the person who received the most votes comes out with the Royal Pardon.

Who else is most likely to be black-marked?

In my opinion, for Joe Don to be cut adrift, than we would need more guys in the crew to vote for him, which aligns with the "red-team wins" theory.

for Joe Don to be cut adrift, than we would need more guys in the crew to vote for him, which aligns with the "red-team wins" theory.

Not really. Let's just say that Black wins, puts Joe Don, Louie and a girl out there. The girl gets the pardon, even though she got all the votes. It then cuts back to Azmyth picking, and I'm confident he would cut JD adrift before Louie.

Tribe says I'm subtle but dangerous.