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"2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
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aethelstan 4348 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-10, 12:41 PM (EST)
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"2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
I didn't see this thread yet so I figured I'd start one. I always enjoy this December exercise. The Hall of Fame ballot is out with 14 returnees and 19 new faces. A nice quick summary of there stats can be found here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2011.shtml

Bert Blyleven
Roberto Alomar
Jack Morris
Barry Larkin
Lee Smith
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Mark McGwire
Alan Trammell
Fred McGriff
Don Mattingly
Dave Parker
Dale Murphy
Harold Baines
Carlos Baerga
Jeff Bagwell
Brett Boone
Kevin Brown
John Franco
Juan González
Marquis Grissom
Lenny Harris
Bobby Higginson
Charles Johnson
Al Leiter
Tino Martinez
Raúl Mondesí
John Olerud
Rafael Palmeiro
Kirk Rueter
Benito Santiago
B. J. Surhoff
Larry Walker

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 My votes aethelstan 12-13-10 1
   RE: My votes HobbsofMI 12-13-10 2
   RE: My votes PepeLePew13 12-13-10 3
 RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot Estee 12-13-10 4
 RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot AyaK 12-13-10 5
 RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot Molaholic 12-14-10 6
   RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot AyaK 12-14-10 7
       RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot PepeLePew13 12-30-10 12
           RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot AyaK 01-04-11 14
   RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot aethelstan 12-14-10 8
       RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot PepeLePew13 12-14-10 9
           RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot AyaK 12-15-10 11
 RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot michel 12-15-10 10
 With 6 ballots submitted... aethelstan 01-04-11 13
 The class of 2011: Estee 01-05-11 15
   RE: The class of 2011: Max Headroom 01-05-11 16
       RE: The class of 2011: PepeLePew13 01-06-11 17
           RE: The class of 2011: AyaK 01-06-11 21
               RE: The class of 2011: PepeLePew13 01-06-11 23
 Vote counts. Estee 01-06-11 18
   RE: Vote counts. Max Headroom 01-06-11 19
       RE: Vote counts. AyaK 01-06-11 20
   RE: Vote counts. AyaK 01-06-11 22
       RE: Vote counts. aethelstan 01-07-11 25
   RE: Vote counts. aethelstan 01-07-11 24
       RE: Vote counts. AyaK 01-31-11 26

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aethelstan 4348 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-10, 12:50 PM (EST)
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1. "My votes"
Yes

Bert Blyleven
Roberto Alomar
Tim Raines
Jeff Bagwell
Larry Walker

Would consider:
Edgar Martinez
Barry Larkin
Fred McGriff

Would consider if not for steroids:
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro

It was bound to happen now that I don't follow baseball much but there are people on this ballot that I seriously have no idea who they are: Charles Johnson, Bobby Higginson?

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12-13-10, 01:04 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: My votes"
Bobby Higginson had one great year in Detroit in the final year of his contract. Got a big payday and then never did anything. I think he went to Cleveland in a trade after his $'s per year came down a bit.


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12-13-10, 02:29 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: My votes"
Here in Toronto, Bobby Higginson is mainly remembered as the guy who hit a homer with two outs in the 9th inning to ruin Doc Halladay's near-perfect game (no hits, no walks, 1 runner on base by error) in his second major league start in 1998.

Other than that, yeah pretty forgettable. Charles Johnson was a catcher with a cannon arm and great defense - he was the catcher for the World Series-winning Florida Marlins in 1997. You'd have seen him over the years when the Expos played the Marlins.

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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-10, 02:51 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
Okay, now I'm going to be a homer. But it's just a courtesy homer moment -- nothing more.

Voting for:

Roberto Alomar (reluctantly)
Jack Morris (gotta)
Edgar Martinez (if you define your position, even as a DH...)
Jeff Bagwell (should go in on the first ballot and therefore won't go in at all)
Tim Raines (okay, I'm convinced)
John Franco (pure 'and thanks for all the fish' vote, but his save total should mean something)
John Olerud (helmet-head shouldn't leave the ballot with zero)

Leaving off with malice aforethought:

Rafael Palmeiro
Mark McGwire
Juan Gonzalez

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12-13-10, 06:35 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
Who would I support? As usual, many are worthy but few are chosen:

My votes:
Bert Blyleven
Roberto Alomar
Tim Raines
Larry Walker
Jeff Bagwell

Non-votes but considered:
Alan Trammell
Barry Larkin
Jack Morris
Lee Smith
Kevin Brown

Druggies (off-limits):
Juan González
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmeiro

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12-14-10, 00:03 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
I see this as a rather thin ballot --

My votes:

Byleven, Parker, Morris, and Bagwell.

I'd venture to say that out of that whole list, Bags and Morris have the best shot this time 'round.

on a personal note, it'd be cool to have Donny Baseball elected in his first year as Dodger manager, but I think it unlikely.


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AyaK 10083 desperate attention whore postings
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12-14-10, 09:36 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-10 AT 09:37 AM (EST)

I disagree. I think Bert Blyleven and Robbie Alomar are locks. Blyleven only missed induction by five votes and Alomar missed first-ballot induction by eight votes last year. In Alomar's case, I still think it was a travesty motivated by (1) the spitting incident and (2) the lawsuits claiming that he was HIV-positive but didn't tell his girlfriend or his wife.

But I think they'll both make it this year, especially after the reconstituted Veterans Committee continued to refuse to induct anyone, stretching the drought to 12 years (since the committee won't even meet again under current rules until 2013, and it last admitted someone to the Hall three incarnations ago, in 2001). There's no question that the Veterans Committee's complete breakdown and continuing filbuster helps both Blyleven and Morris in their bid to win election from the writers. But I think Morris still has too far to go.

After Blyleven and Alomar, I see Bagwell as having the next best shot. We'll see.

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12-30-10, 04:26 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
LAST EDITED ON 12-30-10 AT 04:32 PM (EST)


I agree on Blyleven and Alomar being virtual locks to get in this year. I would also vote for Jeff Bagwell, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez and Larry Walker (biased on that last one, but think he's got the numbers to get in).

Now, I'm gonna go into rant mode, so please indulge me. I've seen numerous writers say that Jack Morris is on their ballot and Bert Blyleven isn't. I think that's one of the most ridiculous things I've ever heard - to even consider Jack Morris, you've got to have Blyleven already on the ballot in the first place. Let's compare these two, shall we?

Wins
Blyleven 287
Morris 254

ERA
Blyleven 3.31
Morris 3.90

ERA+
Blyleven 118
Morris 105

WHIP
Blyleven 1.198
Morris 1.296

Strikeouts
Blyleven 3701
Morris 2478

Walks
Blyleven 1322
Morris 1390 (he had more walks than Blyleven in 1,146 fewer innings!)

Wins Above Replacement
Blyleven 90.1
Morris 39.3

Shutouts
Blyleven 60
Morris 28

People also talk about how Blyleven gave up a record 50 home runs in one season, still the record today, but Morris gave up more HRs per 9 innings pitched in his career than Blyleven did.

The only stat that Morris beats Blyleven is in career winning percentage (.570 to .534), not surprising considering that Morris pitched for mostly winning teams while Blyleven did so for a lot of lousy teams.

And people say that Jack Morris is such a great post-season pitcher that this gives him greater consideration for the HoF. Let's see... between the two of them in the post-season, we have:

Blyleven 5-1, 2.47
Morris 7-4, 3.80

And in the one post-season game that these two faced off against each other? Blyleven beat Morris straight-up and Blyleven's Twins won the series over Morris's Tigers. Blyleven also beat a red-hot Doyle Alexander in that series after Doyle had gone 9-0 for the Tigers after the trade.

People say that Blyleven didn't dominate the Cy Young or MVP ballots. Well, neither did Morris.

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AyaK 10083 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-11, 06:51 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
Blyleven's only postseason loss was game 5 of the 1987 World Series, in which he gave up two earned runs (and one unearned) in six innings. How the Twins bullpen pulled out game 6 is a miracle, because the '87 Twins were like the '48 Braves, who were famous for "Spahn and Sain and two days of rain." Viola and Blyleven were it for the '87 Twins; no one else won more than 8 games (Les Straker).

To make it to the WS with only two competent starting pitchers? With one of them a 36-year-old who still threw 267 innings? Amazing. But it worked.

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aethelstan 4348 desperate attention whore postings
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12-14-10, 11:17 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
I see this as a rather thin ballot --

Wait 'til next year. Bernie Williams heads that group coming in and the next best is probably Vinny Castilla. 2013 is when the real fireworks start though as Bonds, Clemens and Sosa are eligible along with Piazza and Schilling.


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12-14-10, 01:45 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
LAST EDITED ON 12-14-10 AT 01:46 PM (EST)

Biggio would be on the list as well for 2013 - it's hard to leave a 3000-hit guy with 290 HR, 1170 RBI, 410 SB for a second baseman out of the Hall, even if I thought he was a meh player at times. Julio Franco will be on the list, too - but he's more of a career guy than a numbers guy.

2014 should be a brutal year as well - the leftovers from 2013 who didn't get in will be mixed in with Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas, Jeff Kent, Tom Glavine, and Mike Mussina, while Moises Alou and Luis Gonzalez are the best of the "fringe" candidates. Yikes, that's quite a roster.

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12-15-10, 10:22 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
You know, all the attention being paid to the current Phillies staff of Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt reminds us all once again just how good Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz were. The lack of a fourth ace (Denny Neagle? Steve Avery?) kept them from achieving what the '71 O's McNally, Palmer, Dobson, and Cuellar and the '51 Indians' Feller, Lemon, Wynn and Garcia did (4 20-game winners; 3 20-game winners and a 17-game winning HOFer (who won 20 in every other year from 1948 to 1954) as the 4th pitcher), but their records (except in the WS) were every bit as impressive.

I'm not the best prognosticator here, but I think Maddux, Glavine and Thomas all seem like "first ballot" guys to me.

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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-10, 07:23 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot"
It would be quite something to get an ex-Expos outfield of Raines, Walker and Grissom but Marquis can't make it.

I'd vote:
- Tim Raines
- Larry Walker
- Lee Smith
- Jeff Bagwell

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aethelstan 4348 desperate attention whore postings
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01-04-11, 01:20 PM (EST)
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13. "With 6 ballots submitted..."
We have the following results:

Elected:
Jeff Bagwell 6 (100%)

Oh so close:
Blyleven 4 (67%)
Raines 4
Alomar 4
Walker 4

Still hanging around:
Morris 2 (33%)
Martinez 2
Larkin 1 (18%)
Olerud 1
Smith 1
Franco 1
Parker 1

Interestingly, most of the blogs I've read on this say Larkin has a better shot than Walker or Raines of getting in.

Still, with the exception of the 'roiders who will probably get the minimum 5%, Mattingly, McGriff and Trammell and excluding Olerud, I think we have all the names that will still be there next year.

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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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01-05-11, 03:02 PM (EST)
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15. "The class of 2011:"
Roberto Alomar
Bert Blyleven

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01-05-11, 04:41 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: The class of 2011:"
Not hurrying to Cooperstown to see either of those guys get inducted. Just sayin'.
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01-06-11, 08:13 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: The class of 2011:"
Oh, it'll be a great day for those of us north of the border. Pat Gillick and Robbie Alomar, two cornerstones for the 1992 and 1993 World Series champions.

On the news up here, they were constantly replaying the (still) most important home run in Blue Jays history - no, not the Joe Carter HR to end the 1993 World Series, but the one hit off Eckersley by Alomar that showed the Jays were finally 'for real' and spurred them on to win the LCS and then move onto the Series. Great memories!

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01-06-11, 05:33 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: The class of 2011:"
Amazingly, two ex-Indians get inducted. I'm thrilled.
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01-06-11, 09:29 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: The class of 2011:"
LAST EDITED ON 01-06-11 AT 09:40 PM (EST)


I need to make an amendment to the post above ... not only did Gillick and Alomar get in with major connections to Toronto, but I forgot about another Canadian connection -- Rik Aalbert Blijleven was born in the Netherlands then lived in Canada for four years as a young'un before his family moved to California where he picked up the game of baseball.

So, it truly is a big year for the north-of-the-border folks. Each of the three inductees have a Canadian connection and Larry Walker also made his debut on the ballot.

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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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01-06-11, 03:57 PM (EST)
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18. "Vote counts."
432 votes are needed to get in.

Above the induction line:

Roberto Alomar: 523 (90% of total vote)
Bert Blyleven: 463 (79.7%)

On the ballot next year:

Barry Larkin: 361
Jack Morris: 311
Lee Smith: 263
Jeff Bagwell: 242 (Over three hundred of the writers are idiots.)
Tim Raines: 218
Edgar Martinez: 191
Alan Trammell: 141
Larry Walker: 118
Mark McGwire: 115
Fred McGriff: 104
Dave Parker: 89
Don Mattingly: 79
Dale Murphy: 73
Rafael Palmeiro: 64
Juan Gonzalez: 30

The veteran's committee never inducts anyone:

Harold Baines: 28
John Franco: 27
Kevin Brown: 12
Tino Martinez: 6
Marquis Grissom: 4
Al Leiter: 4
John Olerud: 4
B.J. Surhoff: 2
Bret Boone: 1
Benito Santiago: 1

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01-06-11, 05:25 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Vote counts."
On the ballot next year:

Refresh my memory, what are the requirements for a player to remain on the ballot for the next year? >___ but < 75%.

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01-06-11, 05:31 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Vote counts."
>5%. Goodbye to everyone from Baines on down.
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AyaK 10083 desperate attention whore postings
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01-06-11, 09:20 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Vote counts."
The Boston Globe has a full-disclosure policy. Five of its writers are Hall voters, and here's how they voted:

Peter Abraham, Red Sox reporter: Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, Alan Trammell, Tim Raines

Dan Shaughnessy, Globe columnist: Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris

Bob Ryan, Globe columnist: Roberto Alomar, Jeff Bagwell, Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, Edgar Martinez, Jack Morris

Nick Cafardo, Globe national baseball reporter: Bert Blyleven, Jack Morris, Alan Trammell, Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Tim Raines

Tony Massarotti, Boston.com columnist: Roberto Alomar, Edgar Martinez, Barry Larkin

How about the Boston Herald?

John Tomase, Herald columnist: Roberto Alomar, Barry Larkin, Jeff Bagwell, Alan Trammell, Jack Morris, Bert Blyleven

I don't know about the others, if any, at the Herald. But let's total the six votes:

R. Alomar-6
B. Blyleven-5
B. Larkin-5

J. Morris-4
A. Trammell-3
J. Bagwell-2
E. Martinez-2
T. Raines-2

As for myself, I didn't vote for Larkin this year because I also didn't vote for Trammell. I think the two are basically inseparable in achievement and stature. But next year, I may vote for both again.

The people who didn't vote for Bagwell said that they were bothered by the fact that he only hit six HRs in the minors, thinking that he may have "bulked up" the same way that McGuire, Palmeiro, etc. did. Massarotti said he realized that Bagwell had Hall-worthy numbers, but he wanted to wait to see if any info came out about Bagwell and drug use. Hmm. His claim is that Bagwell has only the MLBPA to blame for the suspicion.

Morris appears very likely to make the Hall now. I won't complain if he does, because he was certainly a top pitcher, and he still had a lot left when he quit (his last year, 1994, with the Indians ... he flew in for his starts and flew back to his farm when the games were over, which shows how disinterested he had become in baseball).

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aethelstan 4348 desperate attention whore postings
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01-07-11, 11:10 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Vote counts."
Morris appears very likely to make the Hall now.

I'm not so sure about that. He only has three years left in his eligibility. He went from 52% last year to 53.5% this year. His totals figure to improve next year which has a pretty week set of newcomers but I don't know if it would go as high as 60%. That leaves 2 years for Morris against two extremely good classes in 2013 and 2014. There may be more ballots with 10 names on them then ever before (well, since they stopped making 10 names mandatory).

I won't complain if he does either but I just don't see it happening.

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aethelstan 4348 desperate attention whore postings
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01-07-11, 11:05 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Vote counts."
Dave Parker won't be on the ballot next year as this was his 15th year.

Can anyone find a stat that shows last year's % and this year's to see who jumped the most? I see that Larkin is +10.5 and Raines is +7.1 but I haven't seen a list. I think this bodes well for both of them.

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01-31-11, 07:14 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Vote counts."
LAST EDITED ON 01-31-11 AT 07:14 PM (EST)

2010/11 HOF Balloting
Player 2010% 2011% Change

Bert Blyleven 74.2% 79.7% +5.5%
Roberto Alomar 73.7% 90.0% +16.3%
Jack Morris 52.3% 53.5% +1.2%
Barry Larkin 51.6% 62.1% +10.5%
Lee Smith 47.3% 45.3% (2.0%)
Edgar Martinez 36.2% 32.9% (3.3%)
Tim Raines 30.4% 37.5% +7.1%
Mark McGwire 23.7% 19.8% (3.9%)
Alan Trammell 22.4% 24.3% +1.9%
Fred McGriff 21.5% 17.9% (3.6%)
Don Mattingly 16.1% 13.6% (2.5%)
Dave Parker 15.2% 15.3% +0.1%
Dale Murphy 11.7% 12.6% +0.9%
Harold Baines 6.1% 4.8% (1.3%)

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