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"Micronesia finale - vote thread"
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smokedog 1885 desperate attention whore postings
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05-09-08, 00:20 AM (EST)
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"Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Who do you THINK will win? Who do you WANT to win?

I THINK Cirie will win. She's played a fantastic game and no one seems to be mad at her)
I WANT Amanda to win. C'mon, the girl is hot!!


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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread frisky 05-09-08 1
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread iltarion 05-09-08 2
   RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread garcor 05-09-08 3
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread Loree 05-09-08 4
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread Max Headroom 05-09-08 5
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread Lasann 05-09-08 6
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread nailbone 05-09-08 7
   RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread agman 05-09-08 8
       RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread iltarion 05-09-08 9
           RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread garcor 05-09-08 10
           RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread jbug 05-09-08 14
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread Colonel Zoidberg 05-09-08 11
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread Aruba 05-09-08 12
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread PsychoKitty 05-09-08 13
   RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread jbug 05-09-08 15
       RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread Wacko Jacko 05-10-08 16
           RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread Wacko Jacko 05-12-08 29
               RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread Aruba 05-12-08 30
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread MattyMax 05-10-08 17
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread michel 05-10-08 18
   RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread iltarion 05-11-08 19
       RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread michel 05-11-08 20
           RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread beka 05-11-08 22
               RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread michel 05-11-08 23
                   RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread CTgirl 05-12-08 28
                       RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread michel 05-12-08 31
 Cirie, Queen of the Couch suzzee 05-11-08 21
   RE: Cirie, Queen of the Couch NedraSue 05-11-08 24
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread dreamerbeliever 05-11-08 25
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread memzoo48 05-11-08 26
 RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread aquariaqueen 05-11-08 27

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frisky 11684 desperate attention whore postings
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05-09-08, 01:29 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
It all depends on their final TC performance.

Cirie will have it hands down IF she rattles off all her moves and tells them everything she did behind the scenes to put them on the jury and to put herself in the finals.

Amanda's final TC track record is not good. By the time she hit the beach on FvsF, the outcome of her season was unknown (it was only three weeks after they left China according to James) so she will not have known how her performance affected the votes. Therefore, no reason to change her performance. If she's in the final two, she'll leave as long as the other person says "All that stuff was my idea."

Parvati has a shot if she's up against Natalie or Amanda.

Natalie doesn't have a prayer. Unless she brings her confessional theatrics to her final speech. And lies a lot.

It's Cirie's game to lose, IMO.


Perpetual *headbutt* compliments of Rolly.

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iltarion 1791 desperate attention whore postings
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05-09-08, 03:15 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
I don't think anger will have any bearing on who wins at this point. I think Ozzy will not vote for Parvati, but other than that, every vote is up for grabs.
Amanda is the best liked, but that won't necessarily help her. I think it could get her Eliza or Jason's vote, maybe. She might not have made as many moves as Cirie or Parvati, but she did make the biggest move and it was right in front of the jury for everyone to see. Because of that and because she has the only sure vote in Ozzy, I give her the slight edge.
I think Parvati and Cirie have made about an equal number of moves. Cirie has done it more from behind the scenes, but that could hurt her in front of a jury that cares more about game play than likability. We will see. I guess I would put Cirie and Parvati about equal to win.
Natalie has the only other sure vote in Alexis, but I don't think she can get any of the Faves' votes and she has screwed Jason and Erik over.

I am a little into gambling, and these are the odds as I see them:

Amanda - 5/2
Cirie - 3/1
Parvati - 3/1
Natalie - 15/1


>

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garcor 432 desperate attention whore postings
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05-09-08, 07:04 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Think it could depend on who wins next IC. Also think Amanda has an edge going into final TC. There was a reason she was targeted last week; everyone else thought she would be the hardest to beat at final TC. Must be some reflection of how she's regarded by other players.

If Natalie wins the final IC I could see Cirie voting with her against Amanda. Not so sure about Parvati. If she votes against Amanda it raises the Parvati can't be trusted issue, yet again, at the last vote before final TC. And since Parvati took credit for moving out Eliza, don't see how she could then get the votes of Ozzy, Eliza, Amanda or James. Wonder if to avoid a tie, Amanda and Parvati would vote against Cirie and try to get Natalie to join them. Forgetting, if there is any time between the IC and the vote.

If Natalie doesn't win final IC, I figure the other three will vote her out and it will come down to who makes the best final TC argument.

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05-09-08, 08:07 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
I believe Natalie is the most vulnerable of the F4. If she does not win the next Immunity I think she will be voted out 3-1.

Now is it a F3 or F2 vote this season? I believe it is harder to guess the vote with 3 in the final. Two could split the vote and let the other win.

I am leaning towards Amanda winning. I just think she is viewed as better liked by the jury and she has been shown making some power moves at TC. I am not sure the males on the jury would give Cirie the win. They would probably like someone that wins challenges to be the winner. Cirie doesn't play that way. I think Amanda and Parvati would connect better with the jury. Cirie has been more of an outsider. She sits back while the others skinnydip, etc. And between Parvati and Amanda I think Amanda has more votes.

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05-09-08, 08:42 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Here's how I see it:

Natalie doesn't win the next IC and is voted out 3-1.

If we have a F3: It'll be a race between Cirie, who played the better game, and Amanda, who is better-liked. Parvati is on the outside due to too many jury enemies. If we end up with a F3, I think Cirie should win but Amanda will win.

If we have a F2: Cirie will lose the next IC because she's completely useless in challenges. If Amanda wins, she takes Parvati to F2 because a) they've been friends/allies throughout, and b) Parvati is an easier F2 opponent. If Parvati wins, she takes Amanda to F2 because they've been friends/allies throughout and she has less loyalty to Cirie. Either way the F2 is Parvati and Amanda. And I think Amanda wins this matchup hands-down.

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05-09-08, 08:56 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Want - Ozzy (but I digress)

Will - Amanda purely based on the fact that Cirie couldn't win a challenge if they cut off the toes of all the other contestants.
Want - Amanda



Go Ozzy - go Ozzy - go Ozzy

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05-09-08, 10:02 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
I think Cirie deserves to win, because she's been the best at strategery all season. Some of it, though, has been kinda behind the scenes, like last night. Cirie proposed the sting, but Nat and Amanda did the bulk of the work.

Parv won't win because she's irritated too many. Nat won't make it to the finale.

I WANT Amanda to win, to nake up for gakking up the win in China.

And because she's hot.


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05-09-08, 10:16 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
>I think Cirie deserves to
>win, because she's been the
>best at strategery all season.

I agree with that....She's been very sly and really controlled things from behind the scenes. She's definitely smart enough to win, she just has to make up for her ineptness in challenges

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05-09-08, 11:42 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"

I don't agree that Cirie deserves to win more than Amanda. Let's not forget that as great a game as Cirie has played, she was also duped by Amanda. It was Amanda and Parvati that recruited Cirie into an F3 pact in the first place, which made her entire game possible. Cirie has played a great game, but she only deserves to win over Amanda and Parvati if she DOES win in the end.
I am not as sure that Cirie can not compete with the other women in a final immunity. However, endurance/stamina challenges are often won by the person who needs it most; so that would give Natalie the edge. If Natalie wins, I believe Parvati and Amanda stick together, which means Cirie is gone unless Natalie is wise enough to force a tie.
If the 3 Faves make the Finals, then it is really up for grabs and whoever has the best FTC could very well win. I think Amanda would have the advantage with the Faves, but the 3 Fan votes could possibly decide the outcome. And who knows how those 3 would vote?

>

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05-09-08, 12:21 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
LAST EDITED ON 05-09-08 AT 12:39 PM (EST)

Do think Parvati has almost no chance against any combination of final three players. Has voted against two alliances she was part of and took credit for moving out another juror, Eliza.

Do think it is Amanda's to lose if she is in final three; has done more, and is more likeable, than Natalie. Cirie might have done as much, or more, than Amanda to determine game's outcome, but she has been shown as doing little in camp or in challenges and as making her strategic plays so quietly as to get little credit or blame for them.

Do think Amanda will likely make final three unless there is a tie vote because I can't see Parvati voting against her as Amanda could likely sway jurors against Parvati killing any chance she has of winning. Think there could only be a tie vote if Natalie wins final IC. Otherwise fave ladies will likely take path of least resistance and vote her out

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05-09-08, 09:49 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
It was Amanda and Parvati that recruited Cirie into an F3 pact in the first place

Hummm, seems I recall the three of them out on the boat/canoe/whatever and Cirie being the one to bring up the couples alliance and suggesting Amanda & Parv use the guys as long as they needed to and then? the three would go to the end together. I wish I could watch that ep again.....


Puppetmaster Cirie - And it finally all comes together ~~~insert evil laugh~~~
(by Sigmaster Ag)

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05-09-08, 01:56 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
I foresee a few possibilities:

It stays Fans vs. Favorites - Natalie doesn't have a chance in hell, and she's gone without an idol. The F3 is all Favorites. In all likelihood, Parvati is shut out, since Amanda made the biggest play and Cirie has been close to everyone. I picture Amanda's friendship with Ozzy and James to be a difference-maker, and she probably earns some respect votes as well.

Amanda's too much of a threat - it all comes down to Amanda vs. Parvati for immunity. Let's be honest - Cirie and Natalie won't win. If Amanda wins, it's up in the air. If she doesn't, she goes.

Cirie's too much of a threat - if she doesn't win immunity, she goes, and frankly, immunity seems unlikely. Seems likeliest if Amanda wins immunity.

If Natalie goes against Amanda and Cirie, she doesn't have a prayer. She's this season's Stephenie, and with Ozzy likely able to influence Jason and Erik, she's likely to get Alexis and that's it. If only Amanda or Cirie makes it against Parvati and Natalie, they will win.

This is assuming an F3, which seems almost certain. The other possibility is an F2 with one juror struck, either by immunity winner's choice, by random draw, or by the last person voted out being unable to vote.


GO RED WINGS!

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Aruba 1891 desperate attention whore postings
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05-09-08, 07:17 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
I would have to agree with the majority of the post and say it all depends on what happens Sunday.

If the vote was held immediately after dumba$$ literally ran off the set I see the votes going this way.

I can't see Ozzy, Jason, James, and Erik NOT voting for Amanda.

No way Alexis votes for Amanda or Parvati...so she probably would throw her vote Natalie's way because of the "fan" connection.

Eliza is a toss-up so I'll say 1/2 - Cirie; 1/2 - Amanda

Unofficial Tally after last night:

Amanda - 4 1/2
Natalie - 1
Cirie - 1/2

Once again...alot can change from now to Sunday.

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05-09-08, 09:12 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
I'm concerned that they won't vote off Natalie next. Maybe each of the other women will decide she's the perfect goat and try to take her with them. I hate the idea of her sitting that close to the million. We'll see what happens Sunday!


Not that I have an opinion one way or another ;)
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05-09-08, 09:51 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
I don't want to see Natalie there either!


Puppetmaster Cirie - And it finally all comes together ~~~insert evil laugh~~~
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05-10-08, 00:10 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Should - Cirie
Will - Amanda
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05-12-08, 10:54 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
>Should - Cirie
>Will - Amanda


Ok, I totally botched this one. As the night approached i had a feeling of Paverti. Really Paverti was the one that controlled the whole game and in the end she really pissed off only two people.......Ozzy and James. While those were guaranteed Amanda votes.....Paverti had Alexis and Natalie sewed up. So it came down to Erik, Jason, Cirie and Eliza. I would've leaned towards Erik voting for Amanda and Jason for Paverti. The swing votes were Cirie and Eliza...which in the end both went for Paverti.

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05-12-08, 05:21 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Don't be so hard on yourself, Wacko.

Did you know before the Finale that it would be a F2? I didn't. And I truly believe that made a difference here. Add Cirie to a F3 and you probably have a real dog race to the finish.

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05-10-08, 04:49 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Natalie wins!

Nat wins immunity, Amanda loses a fire challenge to Cirie.

F3 - Nat, Cirie & Parv

Fans stick with Fans. Nat gets Erik, Jason & Alexis = 3 vote

Parv gets Amanda & Ozzy = 2 votes

Cirie gets James & Eliza = 2 votes

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05-10-08, 05:55 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
- Natalie can't win. This season, we've been told that "The Game is Harder than Fans Think" and that "Survivor Fans are Dumb".

- I don't think Cirie can win. We heard that her move against Yau Man was stupid in a season where "Too Much Scheming Too Soon Is Bad". That Theme covered the whole pre-merge, from Mary's boot to Ami's and even Eliza who was booted for having "started the game all guns blazing." Cirie's main problem is that she isn't a "Triple Threat".

- Amanda could possibly win but she opposed the women's alliance at first, even if it brought her here. She doubted Parvati even if Parvati was loyal to her and now thinks she can beat Parvati in front of the jury. Being over-confident was said to be the Faves' potential downfall. Amanda also wasn't ready to let Ozzy go even if no one would beat him in the end. Worse, before her "Game On" she was only a background character and Burnett puts his winner up front from the start.

Which leaves Parvati.

- To the challenge that the Fans knew the Faves weaknesses, Parvati started off explaining she knew she had to add dimensions to her game.

- To the Fans' problems coping with the elements, Parvati told them where was the best location for their shelter, learned how to fish from Edwin and was able to relax when the Fans stressed and were miserable.

- If Joel, Mikey, Tracy, Ami and Eliza made the mistake of playing too hard too soon, Parvati explained she plays the game in stages.

- She was the first to make a strong alliance with the Fans just as many players said Fans vs Favorites was over.

- She often reflected on her jury appeal and she made sure that potential winners like Ozzy and Alexis wouldn't reach the end. Eliminating Ozzy was called a good move by both James and Erik. Parvati got the credit for that, both in the recap and at Tribal. She was prepared to eliminate James.

- She is a Triple Threat.

I think Parvati wins.

I want one of Parvati, Cirie or Amanda to win. I'd just have to rewatch the whole season if Cirie and Amanda pull it off!

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05-11-08, 02:52 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
LAST EDITED ON 05-11-08 AT 03:13 AM (EST)

Editing points.
1. Amanda has been forefront all season and based off my memory has gotten the most confessional time of anyone.
2. After the tribal switch, Malakal dominated every episode. The members of Airai virtually disappeared from the edit. Would a winner come from that tribe? Seems doubtful to me. Cirie and Amanda were on Malakal.
3. Every confessional and secret scene has painted Amanda in a positive light. We were shown one confessional where Parvati called Jason a loser, and Parvati's comments about Erik being the stupidest player ever were also left in the edit. We had a confessional from James disparaging the kind of person Parvati is, and we have been repeatedly reminded of Ozzy's ire towards her.
4. Parvati has not been forefront during the two episodes prior to the finale. She had only 3 confessionals shown, and one of those showed her lazy and perhaps overconfident at Exile Island. Amanda has had 5 confessionals during that time, and Cirie has had 7. Two episodes ago, Parvati was not shown at all until the RC, when they showed everyone.

Now, none of this means Parvati can't win. I still think she can win if Natalie does NOT make the F3 and with a good FTC, which she is capable of. I think Parvati needs the vote of either Natalie or Alexis, and she gets neither if Natalie makes the finals. I am starting to think now, especially after seeing the last two episodes again, that Cirie's chances are better than Parvati's. So, she can still win, but I think the odds are likelier that you are going to need to watch the season again.
Personally, in the editing, I see Ozzy's boot as Parvati's high water mark. That was her greatest move, but also, where the game turned for her. The editing since then has shown James dissing her, Ozzy throwing daggers at her at TC, and has shown in order, Natalie, Amanda and Cirie each forefront in 3 consecutive episodes down the stretch, while Parvati's story has faded to the background.

Revamped odds after reviewing of last two episodes-

Amanda - 5/2
Cirie - 3/1
Parvati - 7/2
Natalie - 30/1

>

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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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05-11-08, 12:03 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
LAST EDITED ON 05-11-08 AT 12:05 PM (EST)

Very good points, Iltarion. You really should join us in the editing thread next season. Just two points:

>"After the tribal switch, Malakal dominated every episode. The members of Airai virtually disappeared from the edit. Would a winner come from that tribe? Seems doubtful to me. Cirie and Amanda were on Malakal."

First, Malakal dominated every episode for the wrong reason: They were going to Tribal each time. Nevertheless, Parvati was never forgotten even if most of Airai's time was spent on Jonathan, who was MedEvaced and Kathleen who quit. Also, remember Jonathan's words: "We have the bad beach, but the good tribe." I took that completely useless comment as a hint that the winner was on NuAirai.

>"Revamped odds after reviewing of last two episodes"

I'd postulate that basing odds on the final 2 episodes is the worse course of action possible. That is when the editors are in full misdirection mode.

I prefer to look at the entire season's edit. Yes, Parvati's stretch run is very worrisome but she had a much stronger first 10 episodes. I remember writing the following after episode #5: "If Amanda had to wrestle a shark to get some airtime, what will she have to do next?" What she did next was in episode #12 when she played the idol. That is a huge gap in which she first played fourth string to Cirie, Ozzy and even Ami, the stars of Malakal and then walked around, out of the loop, in the early days of Dabu.

Remember, she wanted Alexis gone first because she was jealous according to Cirie. That storyline was completely abandoned because, when it came to it, Amanda wanted Natalie gone. Not much was explained for her change of heart. Parvati's reasons were given. Remember when I responded to Aruba that showing the Amanda - Parvati conversation could have been more important than a complete surprise at TC. I think the editors needed to showcase Parvati's role, have her say it had to be Alexis. Think of it: It would indeed have been great if we thought Amanda had failed. Her story's continuity would even have been intact since she booted Alexis. Amanda's story was broken up to leave room for Parvati's. THAT was a huge editing decision.

Just more food for thought as I would be very happy with Amanda winning. She did set a record for most days playing Survivor, beating Big Tom's 73 days.


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22. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Remember, she wanted Alexis gone first because she was jealous according to Cirie. That storyline was completely abandoned because, when it came to it, Amanda wanted Natalie gone. Not much was explained for her change of heart. Parvati's reasons were given.

Amanda's reasons were given, they showed the conversation she had with Parv "Yeah, but what if she beats us later" And Parv said that Amanda had a good point, but she wants to think about the end...Amanda wanted to keep Alexis because Alexis was injured and she'd be easier to beat in challenges.

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05-11-08, 02:05 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
LAST EDITED ON 05-11-08 AT 02:09 PM (EST)

But Amanda was worried about "Alexis the motivational speaker", not the athlete. And Natalie had shown nothing in challenges that would explain Amanda's worries.

ETA: "Parv said that Amanda had a good point, but she wants to think about the end"

From early on Parvati has been shown as the one thinking of the end game (I'm in such a hot pickle" even being an episode title) That is usually the winner's role.

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05-12-08, 08:24 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Congrats to you Michel for your wonderful analysis that Parvati would win. After these last two posts you pretty much had me convinced that you wre right and I was wrong (but not enough for me to go change my picks in AVG and LL! )

I've fallen for this editing misdirection before, and especially with you around, I won't get fooled again!



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05-12-08, 06:19 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Thank you very much CTGirl.

Would you believe that it was the scene where Parvati was shown catching a fish after Edwin's lesson that convinced me? It fit her theme so well.

As far as not being fooled again, I think EPMB can come up with new tricks so we'll have to look closely at the next story. That's always the fun part.

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05-11-08, 12:40 PM (EST)
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21. "Cirie, Queen of the Couch"
Cirie, oh what a season, she read them, she nudged them, she let others get their hands dirty. I don't know how much they talk at Ponderosa but I'm sure it's plenty.

If they compare notes they may if given the opportunity vote her the win. James, of course, knows the outcome of China and how far Amanda got. Does he talk about it and will that sway votes away from her them thinking she did very well and if they are on the fence will that nudge them away from her?

Ultimately I enjoyed this season and anyone of those four would work. I look forward to hearing the vote reasoning of all of the Jury too.


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05-11-08, 02:24 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Cirie, Queen of the Couch"
I think that the one that scares me the most is the Natalie edit. She wasn't even shown for several weeks...and several of us even couldn't remember her name. Then you hear Pav/Amanda making comments about Natalie not getting on anyones bad side...Here we all have watched her horrible confessions and would just HATE to see her win.

Could you imagine how Jason felt watching those episodes knowing the she was talking about him, that way to all of TVland? I just do not think they would have allowed her edit to be that way, if she was a winner. I think they would have found other ways to show her competitiveness...over the whole jugglar comments. (sorry spelling isn't working well today).

I'm guessing that James will discuss with Ozzy Chinas FTC and once they get to the end, Amanda is going to step up to the challenge this time, and be very 'in the game' over her last preformance...and I think it is Amandas game to lose.

She can not take Cirie with her to the end...she has to have Parvati there, to make it all work.

Just my thoughts.

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05-11-08, 03:27 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Alexis! Oh wait she is out, so I'll go with the Perv.

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26. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
Want: Amanda

Will: Amanda

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27. "RE: Micronesia finale - vote thread"
If Cirie makes it to final 2, she will have to let each one know that she was really the one behind their boot, and she'll have to remind everyone that she put the bug in each of their ears.

If she doesn't remind them, they won't realize it, she'll end up #2.


“I love Jesus but I drink a little”. Gladys Hardy


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