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"A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
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donracefan 0 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-06, 01:51 AM (EST)
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"A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Glad to see another TAR season kick off. This is a long post but I think you will find it interesting so read on. There's plenty to agree or disagree with so sound off. Last season, I did an experiment and, boy, did it work well. After the first episode, I predicted the finishing order and it was, perhaps coincidentally, exact. It was uncanny but I will say that a few things had to “fall just right” for it it happen. On the 10 point scale, BJ/Tyler had a 10, Eric/Jeremy had an 8, and Ray/Yolanda had a 7 as did Joseph/Monica so they were a toss-up. I retroanalyzed it to all prior seasons, and it was never off by more than 2 spots and usually only one spot. That is to say, if it picked a team to place 5th, they would usually be 4th, 5th, or 6th but occasionally, they would be 3rd or 7th but that was rare. So without further delay, I present my predictions for this seasons finishing order along with the methodology.

As has been discussed on this board, there seem to be commonalities among the teams that make it to the late stages and commonalities among the early outs. Specifically, these criteria tend to determine who the “better” and "worse" teams will be. Keep in mind that this is based on all of the teams having equal “luck” with taxis, scheduling, etc. which hardly ever happens. Before I start, let me say that these points form a 10 point scale with 10 being best. Then I sort lowest to highest to show the system’s predicted exit order. Below are the point explanations.

Fitness – this is made up of a composite which includes my perception of their seeming ability both conquer physical challenges (like episode 1 rope climbing) as well as to endure fatigue, stress, sleep deprivation, etc. I give 1 point for each fit team member because having only one fit member is obviously not as good as having two because they have to arrive at the mat together and, therefore, can only go as fast as the weakest link allows. To get these points, teams don’t necessarily have to be athletic looking nor do they have to be “iron-pumpers.”

IQ – this is a catch-all category for mental competence. This would include problem-solving, creativity, resourcefulness (think McGyver), and general breadth of knowledge. This gets 1 point. The reason for this getting only 1 point is that it’s not required that both team members be intelligent. One can carry the other here. In other words, both had to be physically fit enough to climb the rope last night but it only required one good brain to figure out the bricklaying puzzle and the other team member could just follow and help. Not many teams get this point. That’s because for this point to be assigned, the team has to have “above average” intelligence. I define that to be evidence of all of the above traits. While teams may possess one or two (or in some cases none), few teams will have all four of the traits. In this season, I only awarded this point to 2 teams.

Traveled – I admit that with some of these teams I’m having to take their word. Some mentioned specific places they had been while others just say they have traveled. Does that mean to the Mall of America in Minneapolis and that one time they went to Atlantis resort in the Bahamas and never left the property or does that mean real, foreign, immersed-in-the-culture travel. However, I took the teams at their word here. If they said they had traveled, I gave them a point. If they didn’t mention it at all or said they hadn’t, I did not give the point.

Males – for whatever reasons, and most people on these boards have their guesses as to why, an all-female team has never won this race. The flipside way of saying that is that there has always been a male on the winning team. In fact the teams without a male usually have been the early exits too. Furthermore, there have been more male duos as final winners than male/female team winners. Therefore, I give a point for each male on the team not because of any prejudice but because of historical, inarguable results.

Competitive – this is hard to measure quantitatively but you generally know it when you see it. It’s important because it separates the teams that will put in that extra effort when they are exhausted in the later stages. One point is given for this as well.

Multilingual – notice the key word here is “multi”lingual. Just because someone speaks Spanish, for instance, doesn’t get them this point. Why is that? The teams may not go to a Spanish speaking country. And even if they do, it may be later in the race at a point when that team might already be eliminated. To qualify for this point, the team must collectively speak at least two languages other than English.

Not Distracted – as has been noticed and mentioned by others, teams wanting to see the world, work on their relationship, prove something, get noticed, etcetra, don’t tend to do well in this race. It’s hard to stomach eating fish eyes, for instance, when all you wanted to do was work on your relationship. There’s therapy for that. Therefore “distracted” teams do not get this point while teams that don’t seem to have these interferences/conflicts do get this point.

Intangibles – sometimes a team has something about them that seems to help them in this race. It could be a number of things. This is a subjective point but in each case that I give a team this point, I will state my reasons. You may not feel the same.

Now that I’ve given the point system, I will apply it to each team. I’m doing this in the order that this method predicts they will leave. I am aware that there are spoilers out there through episode 7. If those spoilers are accurate, it means that a couple of teams made it 1-2 episodes past their predicted finish here. However, if those spoilers are right, of the 5 teams this system shows as the bottom half, the system is correct on 3 of them. Pretty good so far. By the way, I’m also providing my version of team nicknames to help identify them.

David/Mary (Team Hillbilly)
This was an easy one. The team has one male. Other than that, they are both out of shape, especially her. They are distracted by wanting to prove. They don’t seem especially competitive or definitely not too bright. I noticed no intangibles. Far from being multilingual, they don’t even speak English well. If they go to Britain, they will be looked at by the locals as if they are speaking a foreign language. Their last place finish in the first episode only emphasizes the weakness of this team. Their best hope for seeing the 3rd episode from anywhere besides their couch is for the next leg to be a non-elimination or some other teams to mess up which does happen. Believe me, if they stick around, it will not be because they are great racers.

Lyn/Karlyn (Team Soul Sisters)
Neither is fit. No males on team. Neither seems especially bright and no other languages spoken. Didn’t notice any real competitiveness. They seem distracted already by their comments about Peter/Sarah. The intangible I will give them is that they know their limitations which will lead them to make appropriate decisions about themselves for roadblock and detour selections for as long as they are around. Their next to last place finish in the first episode shows us the same about them as it does Team Hillbilly.

Jamie/Kelly (Team Sis Boom Bah)
Both are fit. Neither seems that bright and no other languages spoken. Didn’t see a competitive streak. No males on team. As was mentioned elsewhere, they are probably in this for the publicity and thus distracted.

The next 3 have equal points at 3 points each on the 10 point scale. I have my thoughts on their exact exit order but for now I will just list them in random order.

Duke/Lauren (Team Daddy’s Little Girl)
This team surprised and finished second. That could help them but my gut feel is that while the 3 teams already mentioned are making their exits, this team will slip down the finish order and find themselves vulnerable for an exit after their weaker counterparts. This team is obviously distracted but both seem fit. One male on team. Don’t seem overly competitive. No mention of any other languages was given nor to any traveling.

Tom/Kelly (Team Gay Pride)
Neither seem especially fit, especially when compared to most of the other males in the race. While both are “male” that may be a stretch but I’ll give them those points. They said they have traveled but didn’t get specific. I’ll be true to my word and give the point anyway. They seem easily distractable. I didn’t see anything worthy of an intangible point. No points for languages or competitiveness.

Rob/Kimberly (Team Bickerson)
This team reminds me of Paul and Amy from the first season in the way they seem to fight. Both are fit. One male is on the team. Don’t seem competitive, at least as competitive as will be needed. And if they are, they waste it on arguing with each other. No mention of other languages. I didn’t seen any intangibles. They are distracted by each other. Neither seems outrageously intellectual and no mention of travel experience.

That was the last of the 3 teams tied for 3 points each

Dustin/Kandice (Beauty Queens)
This team is hard to rank in my system. The reason I say that is that with my system, they are the last team not making the finals though that is hard to believe right now. However, I will say that they have already surprised by navigating Seattle better than most to catch the first plane and then keeping that lead well enough to place 4th in episode 1. They are both fit. Anyone who knows anything about the pageant world knows that they must be competitive to have gone as far as they did. They don’t get points for having a male, brightness, being multilingual or undistracted. However, I give them an intangible point and here’s why. While neither is pleading for us to “not hate them because they are beautiful,” they were both very aware of the ability to use that to get things. Don’t kid yourselves. It may not be politically correct to say so but that will have some sway. Pretty people have it easier than most and get favors - sometimes without even asking. It may be behind the scenes help, for instance, from airport staff. I could easily see an alliance (spoken or not) with the models/rahabbers. However, I gave them a point for traveling on their word but I get the feeling it’s more of that Bahama trip I mentioned before. That point is the only one separating them from those 3 in the middle of the pack. If I take that point away, they would be in a 4 way tie with the ones just mention meaning they could still place as high as 4th but could also finish as low as 7th.

And your finalists are...

Tyler/James (Team Surfer Dudes)
Two males who are both fit and who say they’ve traveled. I give them an intangible for their rehab experience. They are obviously competitve. The only points they missed were for multilingual, intelligence, and lack of distraction.

Peter/Sarah (Team Doctor/Patient)
This is another hard one to use with my system due to the disability issue. They got points for having a male, being well travelled, both being fit, intelligence (he’s a doctor), speaking 2 other languages (thereby barely meeting the criteria), and an intangible point for being overcomers. However, they don’t get a distraction point as the prosthetic leg will provide some of its own and there seems to be a conflict brewing with Team Soul Sisters. The fact that Sarah scaled the wall and that they have done Iron Man competitions tells me not to write her off. However, I want to say right up front that I have never tried to “handicap” (said in the meaning of analyzing the odds) a disabled person with this system and they could just as easily prove to be a quick out. If they are, it will help the odds that Dustin/Kandice make it to near the end which I also see as possibly being a long shot even though they have points.

Erwin/Godwin (Cho Bros)
This is the only team in this race that got all 10 points. As I mentioned before, Tyler and BJ were last season’s only 10 and they won. They are obviously fit, both male, competitive, have the brotherly bond versus the sibling rivalry (therefore no distraction). Based on this ranking system, they have the best chance to win. I certainly expect to see them in the final 3. In the first episode, they didn’t make the first plane out, played from behind most of the game but kept cool and focused and then finished well. I see them getting good “restarts” out of bunch points which is so key in doing well in this race. They are my odds on favorites right now.

I spent a lot of time writing this up. Please add your thoughts and let’s make this a lively discussion point. I will append it as the season progresses. Thanks...

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: A successful method of predicti... dabo 09-22-06 1
   RE: A successful method of predicti... dragonflies 09-22-06 5
   RE: A successful method of predicti... LIVEURBESTLIFE 09-23-06 13
       RE: A successful method of predicti... dabo 09-25-06 16
 RE: A successful method of predicti... Max Headroom 09-22-06 2
   RE: A successful method of predicti... donracefan 09-22-06 7
 RE: A successful method of predicti... hmf213 09-22-06 3
   RE: A successful method of predicti... donracefan 09-22-06 6
 RE: A successful method of predicti... cahaya 09-22-06 4
   RE: A successful method of predicti... donracefan 09-22-06 8
       RE: A successful method of predicti... architecturegirl 09-22-06 9
           RE: A successful method of predicti... donracefan 09-22-06 10
 RE: A successful method of predicti... Earl Colby Pottinger 09-22-06 11
 RE: A successful method of predicti... flipxcyd 09-22-06 12
 RE: A successful method of predicti... Chez 09-25-06 14
   RE: A successful method of predicti... jolathe 09-25-06 15
       RE: A successful method of predicti... donracefan 09-25-06 17
           RE: A successful method of predicti... Earl Colby Pottinger 09-25-06 18
               RE: A successful method of predicti... donracefan 09-26-06 19
                   RE: A successful method of predicti... PepeLePew13 09-26-06 20
 RE: A successful method of predicti... mavs_fan 09-27-06 21
   RE: A successful method of predicti... dabo 09-27-06 22
       RE: A successful method of predicti... donracefan 09-29-06 23
           RE: A successful method of predicti... Earl Colby Pottinger 10-01-06 24
               RE: A successful method of predicti... donracefan 10-04-06 25
                   RE: A successful method of predicti... UGASurvivorFan 10-12-06 26

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dabo 25344 desperate attention whore postings
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09-22-06, 02:28 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Interesting.

Speaking as a midwesterner, I think you have overlooked a Work Ethic angle in your evaluations. For instance, David and Mary, whatever their other limitations, will keep themselves determined and on task, it is inherant in their upbringing.

Or, to put it another way, I've known folks like them all my life, they are my kin (not David and Mary specifically, mind you, but I have known people like them all my life), when they get on task they are dog-ged about it. That's how they are, it is their nature, they won't give up, they'll have to e beaten.


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09-22-06, 11:04 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
I agree with Dabo, regarding the work ethic factor. But over all, sound analysis donracefan!

Go Pack!

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09-23-06, 04:24 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Work ethic could fall under the competiveness category. But I don't think work ethic as it applies to the way people do their job/profession really applies in TAR. Because someone can do their best and still not do well in TAR if they don't posses some of the other qualities mentioned in the original post. On the flip side, if you are competitive you will work your hardest and do your best to win.

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09-25-06, 12:38 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
I have to disagree. A strong work ethic is about taking pride in what you do and doing it the best that you can, whatever it is, just because. It's something that can overcome a lack of competitiveness. That is reality for a lot of people in this country, it's not only about how they work but also how they play, participate in their communities, etc. That sort of approach to a reality show competition has merit.

SMILES ARE FREE

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09-22-06, 08:55 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
This is an interesting analysis. I've never broken it down into a point-based system, but every season I come up with my personal list of contenders and non-contenders, and every season I've been right, with a margin of error of one team; there always seems to be one surprise team that contends and one strong team that goes early due to a big screw-up. Based solely on bios and team descriptions (I don't like TAR spoilers), my list for this season came up as:

Contenders
Erwin/Godwin - Two men who are smart, educated, and well-traveled
Tyler/James - Standard alpha male team
Peter/Sarah - If the disability doesn't get them, another strong team
Vipul/Arti - Well traveled, strong relationship, good attitude
- (My mistake team for this season)

Non-contenders
David/Mary - Why were these losers even cast in the first place?
Lyn/Karlyn - Two-woman teams never win, and these two are out of shape too
Duke/Lauren - Other than Momily, parent/child teams don't do well
Tom/Terry - Being gay doesn't matter, they're out of shape and not too bright
Jamie/Kellie - Two-woman teams never win, part II
Dustin/Kandice - Two-woman teams never win, part III
Bilal/Sa'eed - Religion doesn't matter, they're terribly out of shape
Rob/Kimberly - Bickering will be the downfall of the strongest couple team
- (Most likely surprise for long-lasting team this season)

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09-22-06, 12:13 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Nicely done. We are almost in total agreement. For kicks, I did look to see where Vipul and Arti would have landed on this scale had they not gotten lost in Beijing in episode 1 and I had them 4th. And we both are making the same conclusion on Peter/Sarah - that is strong team but could face something where the leg issue will be a factor. We are of like mind.
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09-22-06, 09:05 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
I like your method and agree with your results, however, if I remember correctly Erwin and Godwin do not qualify for the 'multi'linguism point.

I hope you were not one of the many people who fell into the 'I speak 14 languages' trap by missing the next sentence '13 of which are not spoken anymore'.

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09-22-06, 12:10 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Yes I did fall into the "trap" you mentioned when I heard that they spoke 14 languages. I looked down to make a check on my notepad and must have missed the next sentence. They seem bright and I know Asian cultures put a premium on knowing several Asian languages so I gave them that point. However, they are still the point leader by 1 instead of 2 on my ranking chart with this revision.
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09-22-06, 09:38 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
LAST EDITED ON 09-22-06 AT 11:57 AM (EST)

Hey, donracefan, good to see you back with an interesting methodical analysis for ranking teams coming into a new season. As I recall, we had quite a debate about methods last season. In general, your method provides a qualitative way of ranking the teams, and historical statistics support most of the assumptions you make.

You should try out Jim's Casino game and yensid's PTTE games to put your theories to the test against some competition!


Foo dogs by Tribe

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09-22-06, 12:20 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Yes we did have some interesting debates last season. I really enjoyed that. I may not have enjoyed it as much had the hippies not proven me right but instead left me with egg on my face I'm kind of surprised that my methodology is being lauded given that some of it is politically incorrect and there are those that don't like that. However, this is a pleasant surprise. I have never played the casino game. I'll have to look into that if it's not too late. Thanks for the comments.
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09-22-06, 03:14 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
very interesting donracefan, I'm impressed. I wouldnt worry about the political correct-ness of it - thats why we root for the "underdogs". I'd love to see an all-girl team win, but the fact is that there is just so much physical about this race that having male strength is a big bonus.
I'm wondering though - where would Gretchen and Meredith have landed with your analysis?
They certainly lasted far longer than just about anyone expected.

What might make it even more accurate was if you were to "weight" certain categories - sort of like you did with giving two points for two men, etc.
Some of the categories likely give more of an advantage than others. Just a thought.

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09-22-06, 06:07 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
architecturefan,

Haven't I seen you "lurking" these boards before? Your name looks familiar. That season you are referencing (and TARFE which would not even be compatible with this ranking system) are the only ones I haven't seen. However, just based on what little I know or have heard/read, I would have given them an intangible point and a travel point and a not distracted point. I don't know about their intelligence but I have heard that they were pretty crafty. Let's say they end up with a 4 or 5 on this scale which would be half the points and would translate into a halfway through exit point in a normal season or possibly higher if there were an abundance of weaker teams. And I have already said that there were instances where teams have finished as high as 2 places more (or less) than the system predicted. That would put them possibly as high as 3rd or 4th depending on the strength of their competition. So it still works with the +/- 2 confidence level. Thanks for your comments on my post. And thanks for the validation on not being too politically incorrect

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09-22-06, 06:33 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
The problem I have with any score the teams to predict the winners, is that they can never take account of the killer factor - TAXI DRIVERS!!!!

No matter how good the team, a bad or dishonest taxi driver will take them to the wrong place, take the longer (more expensive) route, or have a car in poor condition that breaks down.

Very, very good players can spot when a driver is messing them up but they usually have wasted a lot of time before they can see he is doing a poor job.

No scoring of the teams will tell you how bad thier future drivers will be.

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09-22-06, 08:23 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
LAST EDITED ON 09-22-06 AT 08:28 PM (EST)

Good analytical technique...don't discount David/Mary just yet. Mary did take the time to learn several key words and phrases for this game. Did you notice those few key phrases she spoke in China? Also the fact that this team did their homework for this show and Survivor (in regards to David). I predict them for elimination midpoint however.

EP: Have you tried using a "decision matrix" whereby assigning a weighted percentage for each criteria? You should also apply some type of risk analysis to determine a low, medium, or high risk and formulate a course of action to alleviate those risks.

I do have to agree with another poster that taxi drivers could either make or break you no matter how good the team.


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09-25-06, 06:39 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Well you were right last night - one of the 3 teams you picked (Sis boom bah) for the bottom were in fact eliminated. It should be interesting to see how this unfolds.
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09-25-06, 11:52 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Long time lurker, not much of a poster here. Wanted to say good job on the scoring system. I think it's pretty accurate and should come close to predicting the final racers. I have one comment though about the two asian brothers. I'm not sure if I would have given them the point for intelligences after seeing the first episode. Here's why:
I would say one of the most important things racers have control over is what they pack. It should be minimilist at best. Every gram and cubic millimeter is critical. So what do the boy wonders decide is importent enough to carry around the world? Squirt guns. And not only that, but they got them out and were shooting people in the AIRPORT!!!! Even pre 9-11 that would have been grounds for a long day of interigation with the feds. I'm guessing without the cameras and CBS crew greasing the skids prior to everyone getting to the airport, those guys would not have gotten on any plane, much less the one they need to stay in the race.
Keep up the good analysis. I may not be posting, but I'll be paying attention.
I hope there are no betting spoilers this season. For some reason it's not as good to 'know' who is going to win as it is to speculate scientifically.
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09-25-06, 01:48 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
LAST EDITED ON 09-25-06 AT 01:49 PM (EST)

Thanks for the comments. As far as the squirt guns go, I can see why you would think that. However, I think only the most "keystone" of cops would see a squirt gun as a threat. They used to not be on any TSA watch list. That may have changed with the liquids incident in London but I'm not even sure the filming wasn't already completed before that even happened. On a different note, I realize that teams should pack efficiently but men carry lighter than women anyway and those were small squirt guns. I think sometimes it's important to have a stress release mechanism and keep your sense of humor. That could be worth the very small space taken up. Also, they may have been trying to be seen as "fun" so that other teams might like them and want to ally or at least not try so hard to eliminate them. While I won't go as far as to say that these were their motives, I think that it could be and therefore don't really see this is a sign of stupidity. My reasons for believing that might have been intelligent was based mainly on the fact that the Asian culture puts such emphasis on their children (particularly the male children) showing academic prowess. While they haven't overtly confirmed that, they haven't disproven it either (in my opinion) - even when considering the squirt guns incident. We've seen teams have "momentary" lapses in judgment before. I think the real key is whether or not they will learn from it.

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09-25-06, 03:36 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Nerf guns, darts or preferly nerf rings would have been better then!

I can think of three liquids that a squirt gun could be loaded with to make it into a harmful weapon (atleast good even to scare people on a plane) and give me half a day (with google) I could come up with the formulas for some very mean stuff that probably will kill. Also they would make a great way to squirt gasoline or alcohol on a person, that plus a lighter is a threat in itself.

And remember, the stupidity is not the squirt guns, not that they were playing with them -- it was thier use *INSIDE* an airport. Just like Rob's leaving a bag behind in the plane, in the Post-9/11 world those are things that get you locked up in a little room for 24 hours with bright lights shining into your eyes.

And I don't blame security either if they were grabbed, no matter how harmless your actions were in real life, to them this could be a dry run to test for weaknesses.

Now, if you want real fireworks, have the two Muslims do the same! I am not sure that even the cameras and crew would help then.

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09-26-06, 01:27 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
ARE YOU KIDDING ME??? The very last thing we would possibly do is "profile" a Muslim. We can cavity search granny and her 12 year old grand daughter but, oh no, we can't search a Muslim. That would be profiling and that would be wrong. Let's ignore that all of the 19 9-11 hijackers (as well as the shoe bomber and the liquid bombers in London) had 3 things in common: young, male, Muslims. Please don't blister me with comments. You may not like that it's true but it is and any objective TSA person will tell you it is. However, anyone wanting to jump in with a hearty amen...well...that would be very welcome.
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09-26-06, 04:03 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
LAST EDITED ON 09-26-06 AT 04:07 AM (EST)

Not blistering you at all... but believe me, profiling Muslims in the past five years has been worse than the profiling the African-Americans have gone through for decades.

I know because my sister's common-law is a Muslim from Iran who deserted his country rather than serve a compulsory stint in their army for a cause he didn't believe in. He's one of the real good guys in society, but every.single.time he travels, he's treated like he's got the bubonic plague -- both from other travellers and from the security. And he's now a full-fledged Canadian citizen who's given up his Iranian citizenship.


ETA: Oh, and don? Great job with your analysis and it'll be interesting to see how the rest of the race goes in helping to determine who might be one of the next couple of Philiminations!



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09-27-06, 00:55 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Peter/Sarah (Team Doctor/Patient)

If they weren't having an issue with the artificial leg leaking, I'd agree that they are likely a top 3 team.

But given that the leak has been mentioned a few times now. I think this is going to come in to play. Maybe they can get a part Shipped Overnight during one of the rest periods, but I don't think thats how it's going to playout for them.

Sarah maybe able to power thru the leg issue for awhile, but even for her I think a couple weeks of this is going to take it's toll.

Too, they have had the "See where our relationship is headed" comment a few times (atleast by Sarah)

So, I think they are going to fall well short of the top 3.

Taking the leg leak into consideration:

Give them 1 point for a male,
Give them 1 point for being well travelled,
Give them 0 points for both being fit, (the leak CX'd this)
Give them 1 point for intellegence,
Give them 1 point for speaking 2 other languages,

Do the get the point for being overcomers? I think not, because of the leak. But I'd understand giving them the point for drive and perseverence - If/When the leg comes into play, it will be because Sarah Absolutely has done all she could.

So, I'd put them at 4, maybe 5.

Having said all that, I don't know if this impacts the overall ranking or not.

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22. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
I would categorize the hydraulic fluid leak as an injury, an X-factor that could happen to any racer at any time, something unpredictable. I have been impressed with how Sarah's toughed it out so far. Unfortunately, natural recovery isn't a prospect here as it would be for most minor injuries/ailments, she either needs to get some new juice or continue toughing it out. This is probably contributing to her frustration in the race.

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donracefan 0 desperate attention whore postings
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09-29-06, 00:31 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
I'm not sure what kind of "pain" the leg being low on fluid causes. Does it not move as well and is thus jarring to the thigh which rests on it. Does it ##### her hips in an unnatural way making it hard to run so that she eventually aches from the awkward stance. Obviously, the leg can't feel anything. I just don't know about how severe and what affect this will have yet. In my analysis, I did not give them a point for being undistracted because they are distracted with the leg issues and with other teams sniping at them. However, at this point, I might have to actually consider neutralizing another positive point somewhere else for hyper-distraction (relationship, multiple leg issues, and other teams). On a different point, and not to put to sharp a point to it, Sarah has no business questioning the relationship. It takes a special man to overlook something like that as it would take a special woman to overlook something like that in a man. She should be grateful he cares for her and wants to be with her but grateful seems to be a concept most Americans are unfamiliar with these days. I'm just calling it like I see it. Anyway, I mentioned that my system has never been put to the test of a disability and that they could be an early out just as easily. According to the system, they had potential to be more. However, they could get sidelined too. It will be fun to see it unfold. It always is.
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24. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
I don't know about pain. It may be rubbing her the wrong way now and that will just get worse over time if it is not fixed.

But she does seem to have the same problem that I have when one of my natural knees stiffen up, it throws off your timing. The is a natural bounce in her leg that would have been toned to her body, when walking she would not have much problem as each step gives her plenty of time to adjust, but when running you have far less time to adjust and that forces you to slow down. Think of anytime you have done a minor injury to a leg, you can still walk fine - even if you have to limp you can still move as fast as normal walking. But the moment you try to run it becomes a major struggle to keep any speed.

I just watch Will & Tara lose on OLN last night, Tara just could not keep up the speed even though they started in the lead - this is the problem Sarah faces, at some points of TAR s/he who runs lasts is out, and she can't run long distances at present.

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10-04-06, 01:45 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
Well, here we are again after another elimination episode. The point system had Duke/Lauren in the bottom 4 as well as the cheerleaders in the bottom 3. So far so good. The 2 lowest point total teams, Team Hillbilly and Team Soul Sisters, were fortunate last night. They came in 6th and 7th out of the 9 remaining teams. But don't let that fool you as to the weakness of these 2 teams. They each gained a spot that they otherwise wouldn't had if not for the fact that Team Gay Pride had to endure the time penalty. Realistically, how many legs will someone have one of those. Had that happened in any other leg (or not at all), then they are in 7th and 8th and thus extemely fortunate that Duke and Lauren chose the more time consuming detour task simply because they stumbled upon it first. With fewer teams to make those kind of mistakes as the season goes on and the fact that they won't be able to count on time penalties very often (if at all), these teams are gone soon. However, because I don't expect any more double elimination episodes, at least one of them will get to see at least 2 more legs (and maybe more if a non-elimination leg shows up). On a different note, I mentioned that I thought that the beauty queens would have a competitive streak because the pageant world is a cut-throat environment. I think we saw the beginning of that last episode when they cause Team Gay Pride cry (I mean pout and sulk) by stepping in front of them and then not relenting. And since I just can't leave it alone, I have to say that comment Gay Pride made afterward was one of the lamest comebacks that I have ever heard.
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10-12-06, 02:59 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: A successful method of predicting the order of finish"
I think Kandice and Dustin are going to bounce back and do great these next few episodes, maybe even win a leg! I hope so. I think your strategy will be right on where they finish, but I wish they would somehow make the final 3!!

Kandice graduated a few years prior to me in high school, and she was very confident competitive person then...even voted Most Talented in her senior class for her dancing! It's great to be able to root for someone from home, and I really think they will surprise a lot of the other teams a viewers by really powering through until the end (or near) the end of the race!

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