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"Previous predictions about distractions"
donracefan 0 desperate attention whore postings
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04-29-06, 02:03 AM (EST)
 
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"Previous predictions about distractions" |
I'm putting these thoughts out there to see what others think and to see if anyone else sees the same thing. This is not meant to sound like an "I told you so" even though I have been right about many of these predictions.In a prior post I made note of the teams that were left and the fact that I thought their chances directly hinged on whether or not they could each overcome their unique distractions. At that time, the teams that were left were: Hippies
Frats
Franberry
MoJo
RaYo
Lake/Michelle
Nerds I said that the Hippies were the least distracted of the group and having the most fun and I thought they had the best chance of making the finals. While it started to look "iffy" for them with 2 back to back bad legs, I now believe that they will get there, especially since each team now has a 3 out of 4 shot. I also said that Lake/Michelle were having relationship problems in a bad way, the Nerds were obsessed with their relationship, and RaYo had a confusing uncertainty about their relationship. I predicted all were doomed as a result and so far, so good as RaYo could still be next and is the only one of those 3 still standing. I said Franberry was distracted by trying to prove a point - that they can compete. And they have now been Philiminated too. I made two predictions that were wrong, however they both still give credence my theory. I said that the Frats were distracted by girls and I thought it would cost them but that distraction has since let up a great deal (at least as far as what we are being shown). Therefore, I no longer think they are going to be too distracted. In fact, they are becoming almost too focused. Barring misfortune or mistake, they make the finals. But had they remained distracted, I think it would have spelled trouble. I also said the MoJo didn't seem to have relationship distractions and they were prospering at the time. However, they are now distacted and that distraction is the Hippies (and to a lesser degree the other teams). They have been aired making bad comments about the Frats too and Yolanda said that they were NOT nice so they have apparently done something to upset all of the teams. It's really a bad idea for them to put a target on their own backs as they are probably yield material to all the teams even though the Hippies are the only ones to have said so out loud (again that we know of). As such, I now see them having a harder time making the finals. They are arguing more and stressing more. If they don't do themselves in, they have a high probability of another team doing it. Of all the teams, I see them being the best candidate for next exit and we have seen their edit change accordingly, I think. I have seen so many teams get eliminated that finished the prior leg number one (or essentially tied in this case). I don't think it's a stretch to see them out next at all, especially since the Hippies and RaYo both seemed to arrive very close after the Frats and MoJo. So again, my theory is that the teams with the smallest or fewest distractions will go the farthest. What do you guys think??
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donracefan 0 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "New Member"
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04-30-06, 02:52 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Previous predictions about distractions" |
I appreciate the feedback and I think your analysis is good. However, I think it's more than just being competitors or tourists. I think Frankenberry were competitors too (if the only other option is tourists) but I do think they were distracted by trying to prove a point. They got to the point where they tried to psych teams out at the airports and got nasty with the other teams. As someone remarked online following the episode where Barry says that they aren't the "genial grandparents," no one in the viewing audience was confused about that one. Eric and Jeremy could have stayed in the race a while as "tourists" because, to this point, they have been so much better than the other teams (except for the Oman episode). However, a distraction added to being "tourists" could have cost them by now. Fortunately for them, their primary distraction (the double duh's) left early. You may be right about RaYo but I just don't see it. I think the editing may be trying to make us think it truly is a 4 team race because without that people would be writing RaYo off at this point. You just can't teeter on the edge of the cliff for that long and not fall over sooner or later and coming in last and next to last nearly every leg is teetering on the cliff. Just my humble opinion. I think that the edit of MoJo and Frats has turned negative. They are showing MoJo arguing with each other and making disparaging comments about the other teams. They just showed the frats saying they would lie, cheat or steal for sex (and they didn't even phrase it that nicely). I still insist that the editing as you call it is probably happening a little bit differently this season in that CBS needs a happy ending almost more than they need a suspenseful one. The very last thing CBS needs is a "winner" that leaves a bad taste in the mouths of the audience because the show is already suffering from fatigue having been around so long and the recent fiasco known as TARFE. Therefore, I'm seeing either Hippies (who have been cast in a very good light) or RaYo as likely winners. I just happen to think it's the hippies. Unless you know something in advance and already know you're right, I guess we'll find out if either of us are in a few weeks.
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michel 6689 desperate attention whore postings
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04-30-06, 01:33 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Previous predictions about distractions" |
I'll answer here even if most is already in the editing thread.
Fran and Barry were seen as tourists in episode 1 and 2. They became competitors shortly after but I never thought they would win because we had been privvy to their lack of racing skills and competitive edge early on. The editors wouldn't have insisted on their mistakes so much if they were the eventual winners. It made their story one of perseverance not success.You write: "I think the editing may be trying to make us think it truly is a 4 team race because without that people would be writing RaYo off at this point." Look at CBS.com polls and all the boards, people have dismissed RaYo already. If that was the editors goal, they have failed. If RaYo are winners, the positive edit is groundwork to make them at least palatable. I have no advance knowledge and only look at editing and the tricks employed. I agree that the only other team with a possible winning edit is BJ and Tyler. The bad legs were actually a good sign because it introduced doubts. When they were always at the front, I felt the editors would have to build in some doubts to keep us guessing. We saw that it wasn't necessary, doubts came naturally, but their edit is still too "over the top". I feel that, because it was easy to predict they'd be fan favorites, CBS decided to use it for as long as they could. Now, my reason for thinking that they aren't winners is because other teams have had manipulated edits. MoJo became villains only after Lake and Michelle left. RaYo have been presented positively throughout. Why do that if the hippies win? RaYo are bad racers, say it. MoJo front like they are nice but aren't, show it before now. If BJ and Tyler win, the story has the perfect ending for the majority of fans. Don't manipulate the story, just show it as is. There is another outcome that could explain the editing this year. BJ and Tyler finish 4th and Eric and Jeremy win. RaYo were presented positively in hopes that at least part of the audience would tune in to see if they could beat the other 2 teams. MoJo were made to look as bad as they have so that the Frat Boys would look a bit better by comparison. With all the footage they have, they could've filled the Frat Boys airtime with more positivity than that. I leave that possibility out there but don't consider it as very likely...thankfully!! I don't see any reason for the editing pattern to fit a MoJo win. 
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Peetah 334 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host"
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05-01-06, 11:13 AM (EST)
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4. "How about previous season winners/losers?" |
This discussion is so interesting. As my entry title says, though, what about previous seasons when the fan favorite didn't win? For example, Kris/Jon of TAR 6 were incredibly popular, but ended second. Obviously, they couldn't "make" them win, but did Freddy/(and in particular) Kendra have to have such a bad edit? Kendra was not sweet, but her racist comments could have been easily deleted to make the win less distasteful. Adam/Rebecca were easily villians as well, although more inept than anything. Could their distastfulness been dialed up? In TARFE, The Linzes won, but fans were split over their juvenality. The Branses, though slightly boring, were definately the "nicer" team. Could the Linzes been portrayed to appeal to more people? (Although as long as the Weavers didn't win, it probabaly doesn't matter!) I did not see TAR 4, but their seems to be discussion on which of the final 3 was the least evil. Wasn't that the season with the Clowns? How about when Flo/Zach won--was there a team we would have rather seen win? I believe that in TAR 1, 5, and 7, the fan favorite won (Rob/Brennan, Chip/Kim, Uchenna/Joyce).
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michel 6689 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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05-01-06, 01:35 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: How about previous season winners/losers?" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-01-06 AT 01:46 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 05-01-06 AT 01:45 PM (EST) Good question Peetah. I don't know if I have a good enough answer, but I'll try. With the set back caused by TARFE's ratings, CBS needs a winning story. The winners almost have to be popular. Comparing seasons is difficult because the story isn't edited the same. With that in mind, TAR 6 is the one to look at of course. I didn't analyze the editing back then so I can only go by the impressions I remember. Freddy and Kendra were mainly presented as determined racers but pretentious individuals. It is possible that the editors grossly underestimated the reaction to Kendra's "they continue to breed" comment and in retrospect may have wished to cut it out. Even with that and Freddy's anger at being hit with the gate, their popularity numbers weren't bad. They were always ahead of Jonathan and Victoria and Adam and Rebecca. Give or take a few points, they were tied with Lori and Bolo and Hayden and Aaron. Jon and Kris' numbers were through the roof. F/K were practically tied for second in the final 6!!
Here's a link if you want to verify: http://www.cbs.com/primetime/amazing_race6/polls/popularity/results.shtml Freddy and Kendra had mainly 5th and 6th place finishes to start and then 2nd places towards the end. It was a surprise win and the "good team" doesn't always win. Listeners came back to see if the darlings would beat the hated team. It didn't happen but fans return when their team loses to the hated rivals as long as the race is fun. Last year wasn't fun. With the Weaver's loss, maybe the editors had their story and didn't manipulate the edits much. Was the immaturity of the Linz' exaggerated to throw in some doubts. I didn't pay enough attention. Could Eric and Jeremy also win despite having that immature yet strong racers edit? I doubt it because the future of the series isn't as bright as during TAR 6.
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architecturegirl 227 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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05-02-06, 09:34 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: How about previous season winners/losers?" |
LAST EDITED ON 05-02-06 AT 09:47 AM (EST)I agree that TAR needs to bring back its ratings, and that some of the editing will swing toward doing this.
BUT I think that its the loyal fans who were disgusted with the family edition that they're looking to get back, and I dont think you do that by ensuring that the winner is well liked - its by making sure that the essentials that make us love the show, and the race itself are back. The suspense of the show, loving to hate some of the teams, the amazing and crazy tasks, etc.
It wasnt the teams and their portrayals that lost the viewers last season - it was the dillution and toning down of the race. It felt like the JV edition or something.
So while I agree they need to try and get the viewers back - I dont think they'd purposely turn the winners into the fan favorites for that reason. I think they do it by making it a great and exciting race.
At the same rate, I dont think the winning team will be hated either. That said, I see some credit in the "distractions" theory, but I think more that each team has their own story - their own issues and obstacles, etc. Perhaps theme is the better word.
The team that I think distraction is their theme is Eric/Jeremy. At first it was the girls, but now I think its that they're too focused on winning each leg - the distraction of this almost got them elimintated in Oman, and I think that distraction will be their downfall. As for Lori and Dave, I dont think that their relationship distracted them, I think they just didnt perhaps have the motivation and drive that is needed. Lake and Michelle were more about the mistakes they made, their errors in judgement than about distraction. Could it be argued that these mistakes and errors were due to the distraction of their arguing? Sure, but I think their theme was to be the villians, and that their constant mistakes were their downfall. Fran and Barry certainly werent distracted. In fact, they were almost TOO focused. So focused that they missed what was right in front of their faces sometimes. And well, they went home this time not because they were distracted, but because their focused planning ahead just did not work out for them. BJ and Tyler's edit is all about the fun of the race - and I think it will start to be about their attitude pulling them through, and up out of the bottom of the pack. MoJo's theme seems to be their "luck" and their struggles through each task - yet they always seem to overcome those struggles. See this is where I disagree Michel, I dont think that they're going to gloss over the struggles of a team just to make them likeable. They certainly didnt do it with Freddy and Kendra, or Flo and Zach. I still think MoJo could be the winners. I see them as struggling and overcoming constantly, and I find it interesting that their horrible luck that they profess to have - turned last episode and they got the taxi while Fran and Barry did not. Ray and Yolanda. Their edit confuses me. I agree that its been greatly manipulated, but I just dont see a team coming from being such terrible racers to winning the whole thing. They've never been at the front of the pack really, and they always seem to find their way to last at some point each leg. I'm really not sure what theme I'd give them, but perhaps its their determination and continuing to plug along in the end getting them far.
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mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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05-02-06, 07:08 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Previous predictions about distractions" |
You just can't teeter on the edge of the cliff for that long and not fall over sooner or later and coming in last and next to last nearly every leg is teetering on the cliff. Just my humble opinion.Yes, that's how I've been feeling too. I kept waiting for RoYo to turn it up a notch, but time and again they come up short. Although they are physically strong, they have not been as quick at completing tasks as the other teams. A RaYo win will require that bad luck befall the Frats and the Hippies, which could certainly happen. I think that the edit of MoJo and Frats has turned negative. They are showing MoJo arguing with each other and making disparaging comments about the other teams. They just showed the frats saying they would lie, cheat or steal for sex (and they didn't even phrase it that nicely). Yes, the Frats are getting the "obnoxious" edit, and MoJo the "poor sports" or villian edit. However, I think the Hippies would be wiser to yield the Frats if given the chance, instead of MoJo. One thing I'm wondering about the negative edits for these teams: Do you wonder if that's actually the good stuff? In other words, have they said worse, but much of it was edited out so as not to totally turn us off when one of these teams wins? I think it's going to come down to the Frats and the Hippies, which it has been pretty much the whole race. I doubt MoJo will win. They just don't read the clues carefully enough, and under pressure they begin to bicker and in Monica's case, cry. I say they go next, before RaYo. As obnoxious as the Frats are, they are serious competitors, they work well together, and they do read the clues carefully. So if the Hippies or RaYo are going to beat them, a bit of luck will have to be involved. If the Frats get a lousy taxi driver for example, or get lost again and no chance to catch up at the next bunching, something like that could cost them the race. 
Sig pic by JSlice
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donracefan 0 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-06, 01:12 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Previous predictions about distractions" |
Glad to see my topic is getting some play. Architecturegirl, you make some pretty good counterpoints. However, as far as the edits go and CBS needing to have a fan favorite win, let me add a few more things to consider. The ratings for the show this season have been down. They have been down BELOW Family Edition - widely considered to be the worst of the lot so far. This season they have already changed to a friendlier time slot to try to help out but it didn't help very much. They know they laid an egg with TARFE and, given that the show is already in a sunset stage (everyone was surprised to hear they were doing TAR11), CBS needs to pull out all of the stops. I certainly agree with you that they need to build up the race, the tasks, the challenges, etc. That is not in question. I'm saying that this franchise is at a fork in the road as far as what sells ads and stays on TV. While you can't please all of the people all of the time, I don't think CBS will pass up an opportunity to give the vast majority of the audience a "ride into the sunset" happy ending for the sake of a warm, fuzzy feeling that will (hopefully) carry until the next one starts. Because the future of this franchise is on the line, you just can't judge the editing of this season simply by what's gone before.By the way mtopaz, thanks for the validation on those 2 points. It's appreciated.
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donracefan 0 desperate attention whore postings
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05-03-06, 01:18 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Previous predictions about distractions" |
One more thing, for those keeping score at home, that may make a difference in this race. Ray has done 5 of the roadblocks. There are 3 more episodes. This means that Yolanda must do at least 2 of the roadblocks if they make it that far. I don't know how much impact that it has but it's worth noting. None of the other teams are in the same situation. In other words, no other racer has done more than 4 so any of them could do 2 while their partner only does one.
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mtopaz 2167 desperate attention whore postings
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05-04-06, 12:31 PM (EST)
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12. "Don's theory held true last night" |
The team who stayed out of the petty bickering and juvenile sniping came in first last night. For the first time, the Hippies seriously annoyed me, with their incredibly juvenile "Hey Joseph, we notice Monica and Jeremy are getting pretty close." What are they, in 7th grade? Extremely immature. I already knew that Joseph and Monica were sore losers, and now we were treated to the Hippies behaving badly in return.Surprisingly enough, the Frats pretty much stayed out of the fray, except when dragged in sideways by the Hippies. Their edit last night did not lead me to snarl "oh shut up!" at the screen when they were on. For them, that's a positive edit. The focus should be on winning the race, not on sniping at another team. If the Hippies and MoJo continue to allow their feud to distract them, it does not bode well for their chances. And on a side note, what was up with the blond Hippie, going to ask the Frats for directions, after they stopped to ask some ambulance personnel the same thing? It's a race for a million dollars, and you ask your competitor for directions? That's just stupid. I think the blond guy is the more immature of the two, and he'll drag em down if he keeps it up.
Sig pic by JSlice
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donracefan 0 desperate attention whore postings
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05-04-06, 03:26 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Don's theory held true last night" |
Good points topaz. Others have said that RaYo would be the winner from their view of the edit and after last night, they may be right. Look at the advantage they now enjoy. The will start out first with all of their possessions (unlike the hippies),having stayed above the fray the whole race (so no one is gunning for them) AND this next episode will be the leg with the fast forward (as they have 2 and it won't be in the final obviously) which they should reach first. I see them in the finals. I certainly had hoped that last night was an elimination and that MoJo would be gone but I knew better. They aren't going to have to back to back episodes with the 3 finalists if for no other reason than part of the reason to tune in next week is to see who is the final 3. Anyway, it was a shame to see the detour go to waste by not putting them at least at a disadvantage by losing their stuff and money. As far as the hippies go, it was stupid to ask Jeremy for directions and they shouldn't have gotten out of that cab just because MoJo was "claiming" it. It was the blond guy that did both of those errors. However, the cab thing didn't end up mattering and the 2 biggest hippie errors were committed by the brown haired one. Running across the creek instead of the bridge in the footrace was STUPID and cost them as they were several steps ahead and getting further ahead of Monica heading to the mat. Also, the idea of distracting MoJo with the jealousy issue and possibly distracting the Frats by making them defensive when around MoJo was a great idea but the execution was TERRIBLE. It should have been something that they called Joseph over to the side and said privately and discretely instead of blurting out. Joseph would have let the demons in his head get to him that way but yelling it out loud just looked silly. Missed opportunity there. The closer we get to the end, the more they are all getting distracted by the money, the bickering, the fatigue, the stress, each other, other teams, etc. It's one of those things that if you don't win, it's getting to the point where you would almost want to know now so you can just stop already. Someone's keeping count on another page and we are up to the 17th straight day of this race stress for the teams. Everyone is distracted now. While I was the one to start this topic and found it to be pretty prophetic up through this last episode, however, I now see no more advantage for anyone in this respect.
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