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Flowerpower1 4612 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 11-15-24, 10:02 AM (EST) "S47 ~ Ep 10 ~ Discussion" Thought it might be shun to have a post ep 9, pre ep 10 discussion thread.   Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Post ep 9 TC thoughts Flowerpower1 11-15-24 1  Post Ep 10 - Discussion michel2 11-21-24 2  Thoughts on Episode 11 michel2 11-28-24 3    RE: Thoughts on Episode 11 Flowerpower1 12-03-24 4        RE: Thoughts on Episode 11 michel2 12-04-24 5            Thoughts post Ep 12... Flowerpower1 12-08-24 8  Thoughts on Episode 12 - Missed Opp... michel2 12-07-24 6    RE: Thoughts on Episode 12 - Missed... Sheldor 12-08-24 7        RE: Thoughts on Episode 12 - Missed... michel2 12-10-24 9            RE: Thoughts on Episode 12 - Missed... Sheldor 12-15-24 10                RE: Thoughts on Episode 12 - Missed... michel2 12-18-24 11

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Flowerpower1 4612 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 11-15-24, 10:20 AM (EST) 1. "Post ep 9 TC thoughts" Genivieve is turning into quite the master manipulator aka puppet master. She just orchestrated the Sol boot when all the while Sol thought she was in his inner circle... So, I have to wonder wwgd? We know that she and Sue are in cahoots, so we could cross her off the boot list, perhaps. She also doesn't seem too keen on booting Andy or Sam out, fwiw. Hmmmm, that could leave Gabe or Kyle. Two very threatening choices, imo. I had posted this in the East Coast Update Thread but thought I would post it here. Another question I ponder is who will Teeny gravitate towards now that her numero uno is out. Will she cleave to Genivieve or will she want revenge? I think Sam would want to stick with her, these two seem to be the odd men/women out. I also have to wonder if she has any winner vibes. Her whole mantra coming in was she is adaptable. And, we've seen her get blindsided multiple times now as her besties get the boot. Last seasons winner was similar. (I already forgot her name ---that's the impression she had on me. Ugh) Also, I have to wonder about Genivieve's chances to win. She's really a scrambler, but is she exerting will with her preferences too much? Caroline is a non-entity in this game.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

michel2 4676 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 11-21-24, 05:14 PM (EST) 2. "Post Ep 10 - Discussion" I won't go into a deep analysis as I used to do but these are my impressions at this stage where we have 8 players left, namely: Kyle, Genevieve, Sam and the new alliance of underdogs that is emerging according the «Next Time on Survivor» promotion. That grouping contains Sue, Caroline, Teeny, Andy & Rachel and I do believe it will be solid because these five have been waltzing around each other for some time. Kyle: A good guy that is way too much of a threat to keep around. Sue is a sure vote against him so it's just a question of time or rather they are just waiting for him to lose the immunity necklace. Sam: Another good guy who hasn't lived up to his physical potential although it was evident in the tribal segment of the game. He will be targeted if Kyle is immune or as soon as his shield is gone. Genevieve: A great manipulator who showed her hand too early. She had been my pick for winner as early as the Kishan elimination but going for Sol was like doubling down when the dealer has an Ace. Bad timing. No one trusts her and you can't play when no one listens. The Final 5 should be our «Underdogs» unless someone else wins immunity at F6. In that alliance I see: Teeny: She's a typical «Player on a Journey» as defined by Veruca Salt all those years ago. Of all the players Veruca identified as being on a Journey only Aras managed to win and while there have been a few others since, I don't see Teeny joining that small group. Teeny is looking for an identity through the game and while she still hasn't resolved her issues, the fact that she's outlasted so many others should give her the confidence she lacks. The problem with Teeny is that she has no hand in the game and no one that is a true partner in that alliance. She'll be a vote for them but she'll be discarded as soon as her value falls below the threat she poses. Her only path to the Finale would be to use the intelligence about the «Underdogs» and go back to Genevieve. There are two problems with that path is that it would be a 4 - 4 tie and Teeny would be the least player ion that group. She will see that road as a dead end. Caroline: Contrary to Teeny, Caroline does have a #1 ally in Sue so she might be entrenched in the game. While I'm not ready to give her a seat in the Final 3, I can envision a path for her to make it but will she get the votes with such a light CV ? It would greatly depend on who sits with her and how she gets there. A Final 3 win would greatly help her resumé but getting dragged into the Finale would prove that she doesn't deserve the title. Sue: I definitely see her in the Final 3 not because she has an idol but because why would anyone waste a vote to get her out ? She's an enabler and will help the alliance make it to the end and also help the cannibalization of the group but who will benefit the most from it ? I doubt it will be her. OK, revealing that she is 59 will impress the jury but, outside of Sol, no one is old enough to understand the rigors of old age. I feel it would just be a number for them. Andy: I will throw something at my TV if Andy wins this game but I think that, just like me, the jury has no respect for his game and maybe more importantly for him as a person. I am sure that is the case for Sierra and Sam and they will have convincing arguments to influence the other jurors. Who doesn't remember his horrible showing on Day 1 and his unreliability ever since? He has the «Carolyn Wiger» edit, getting a lot of attention but it has no real substance because it's not what the players know about him. Rachel: She has had a difficult game and wasn't in on two key votes, namely those that saw Anika leave and Sierra join the jury but she has finally solidly harnessed Andy and she can run circles around him when it comes to tactics and overall strategy. I can see them voting out Carolyn and Teeny and Rachel managing to garner all the credit for the moves. If it is her in the Finale with Andy and Sue, I see a huge majority in her favor, something like 7 - 1 - 0. Go Rachel !   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

michel2 4676 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 11-28-24, 12:24 PM (EST) 3. "Thoughts on Episode 11" Kyle's elimination solidified Rachel's chances to win the game. In addition, she handled the «Block a Vote» advantage in such a way that it shouldn't become the disadvantage these supposed advantages often become. In fact, we saw that it earned her Sue's complete trust and, by ricochet, partial acceptance by Caroline. In fact, I would say that Rachel has positioned herself at the confluence of the 3 «rivers» of influence of Beka Island. Sue & Caroline talked of Final 3 with her. Andy and Teeny count on her to make the moves they crave to make. And, mostly because they have no other options, Sam & Genevieve confide in her what they ope could happen. Really, the only cloud that could rain on her parade (It is Macy's Parade day after all!) to the Finale is Caroline who is wise enough to see the danger Rachel poses. Can she find a bridge to double cross Rachel and join Andy & Teeny. She may need to swim upstream to accomplish the feat because it would mean betraying Sue once more. Not seen as a Challenge threat, Sam should outlast Genevieve but as the numbers diminish, his physical strength could overwhelm the remaining players. Andy has become quite the confessional beast and he sees himself as Beka's mastermind. However, the «Fog of War» imagery has never failed us and his biggest confessional was overdubbed on a camp scene where the camp fire smoke was clouding his face in a noticeable closeup. Despite dwindling numbers, Teeny wasn't given much substance in this episode except for the post challenge confessional where she put the target squarely on Kyle. I see her simply continuing on her journey. How do you see the game unfolding ?   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Flowerpower1 4612 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 12-03-24, 12:19 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Thoughts on Episode 11" Love all of your commentary, michel! And, as always it's stellar! It's all logical and reasonable. I think it's Rachel's game to lose from here on out. How I see it for the next week(s): IN the last episode we had the party of 5, aka the underdogs; Caroline, Sue, Teeny, Rachel, and Andy. While it's Andy that believes he's running the show, for me it seems like Caroline is trying to take control. Rachel is playing it cool. The underdogs labeled Kyle, Sam, and Genivieve as their next three targets. Kyle is gone. Check. So now it's either Genivieve or Sam. I do believe that Genivieve trumps Sam at this point, if all things are even. In NTOS we have Genivieve making a fake HII. Sam points out that it's Andy that stirs the drink, or something like that. So we have two scenarios that could play out. 1. The boot is most likely Genivieve (or Sam), OR, one of the underdogs. Caroline has shown us that she is willing to cut one of her own before, someone that she believes has a better resume at the end for the jury, aka Gabe. She's a broken record. Who among them has a better final resume, at this point, than her? Rachel. I do believe she could offer a bone to Genivieve and Sam to vote with her to target Rachel. She will need one more of the underdogs to go with her...Andy? Teeny? I doubt it would be loyal Sue. Whatever, this time I think Genivieve or Sam will spill the beans to Rachel, and it will be easy for Rachel to flip the vote on Caroline. I see Caroline as most likely to be booted in ep 12. F6: (Genivieve + Sam) + (Rachel, Andy, Sue, Teeny). Ep 12. I see that Andy could be the swing vote between the two factions and he could be targeted for this. Could see Andy going in ep 12. *Idols must be played at this point so Sue and Rachel safe. (Genivieve + Sam) + (Rachel, Sue, Teeny) Ep 13. At this point I don't see how Genivieve can survive so most likely she's toast if she does not win immunity leaving the F4: (Sam) + (Rachel, Sue, Teeny) Finale:Most likely Rachel will win the IC, as it most likely will end in a puzzle of some sort. She will most likely choose either Sue or Teeny to go to F3.. Leaving Sam and Sue to the fire challenge perhaps? Sam could win, but let's face it, he's a goat. Rachel winner?   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

michel2 4676 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 12-04-24, 05:57 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Thoughts on Episode 11" Thanks, FP and nice analysis yourself. I am not sure that Sam is a goat though. He'd surely have Sierra to champion his game on the jury and in the F4 you propose, Sam either wins the IC or the fire challenge to make it to the F3 which would surely impress people like Kyle and Gabe. I don't see many votes for Sue over Sam while Rachel and Teeny would have a tough battle, I think. In the NTOS, we saw the girls talking about their power so I see the fake Andy leaving next actually, Genevieve's idol deflecting the vote this turn but it can't work after that if they put enough pressure on her and she still doesn't play it. It would become evident that it is fake. So, in order, I see Andy, Sam, Genevieve & one of Teeny or Caroline losing the fire challenge.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Flowerpower1 4612 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 12-08-24, 11:45 AM (EST) 8. "Thoughts post Ep 12..." NTOS shows us that Teeny flips to Sam/Gen/Andy and tells them all about Rachel's block a vote. In the promo Sue tells us that Rachel is about to burn them....Andy or Teeny. Looks like Gen/Sam will live to see F5. Isn't F6 the last time they can play idols? Definitely last time for the block a vote. Most likely snuffed at F6: Andy. F5: Rachel, Sue, Sam, Genevieve, Teeny Sam if he values his life in the game will start to turn on his physical assets to win some of these last challenges. It could be his only clear path to the end and his only shot to win the game. Sam wins F5. Most likely Teeny jumps back to Rachel/Sue they target Gen. F4: Sam should win this if he is to make it to Finals. Sam wins last challenge, chooses Sue to take to finals leaving Rachel/Teeny to make fire, Rachel wins that ... F3: Rachel/Sam/Sue Winner: Rachel. Sam gets votes, Sue no votes   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

michel2 4676 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 12-07-24, 03:57 PM (EST) 6. "Thoughts on Episode 12 - Missed Opportunity" The 4 women had it practically in the bag but they split their votes, something that should never be done unless you have a large majority. If they were worried about a possible idol then all they had to do was turn the table on Andy, the one pushing to split the vote. Sue still had the possibility of saving the day by playing her idol on Caroline but I guess the fact that the other side didn't produce an idol confused her, changed her calculations and forced her into the huge mistake. On RHAP, Caroline said she felt the wind turning against her but she didn't want to walk all the way over to Sue to ask her for the idol because she didn't want to spook Andy. (Since seating positions are decided by production, maybe they sensed the need to separate the two women. Now, the women still have two idols and Rachel's «Block-a-vote» but that may be only temporary reprieve if Teeny flips over to the other side as the NTOS promo suggests. Teeny flipping would be a dumb move because she has no future in that group. What it does is revive Genevieve's chance to win. This truly brilliant player seemed to be in such a precarious position that I had jumped off the bandwagon but now I'm back! This game will be won by either Genevieve or Rachel and the next episode should decide it.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Sheldor 4761 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 12-08-24, 06:24 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Thoughts on Episode 12 - Missed Opportunity" The other thing the 4 women could have done to be safe is to make sure Andy was part of the minority 2 votes and NOT a part of the majority 3 votes! Then Andy flipping wouldn't matter as flipping would be a 3-1-3 vote (e.g. 3 Genevieve - 1 Sam - 3 Caroline). On the revote for only Genevieve or Caroline the 3 women would vote for Genevieve and Sam/Andy votes for Caroline would lose. Also I'm pretty sure Sam and Genevieve were throwing the Immunity Challenge because if they won the other side wouldn't need to split their votes! FYI: In the New Era ALL 6 Winners had a confessional on the boat ride and/or spoke to Jeff on the Mat and NO Winner had a 0 Confessional Episode Andy: Mat Confessional Teeny: Mat Confessional Sam: Boat Confessional Sue: Boat Confessional BUT had 0 Confessional Episode Rachel: Did NOT speak on the Boat nor Mat Genevieve: Did NOT speak on the Boat nor Mat AND had 0 Confessional Episode   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

michel2 4676 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 12-10-24, 06:08 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Thoughts on Episode 12 - Missed Opportunity" Thank you for your comments, Sheldor and good to see you back. It had been a few weeks. I will say that I doubt that Sam and Genevieve threw the challenge. It's an individual game and immunity is a powerful tool. It's much more reliable than someone's promise especially since Sam and Genevieve aren't game-long, ride-or-die allies. They were more or less thrown together after the Sol vote instead of bonding from the start. Like I wrote at the start, I am following this season and all the ones since the pandemic as a casual fan so I wouldn't know or actually care about precise confessional data. Can we be sure that what applied before is still valid? Maybe in the days of Burnett but Probst has no concept of thematic story-telling.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Sheldor 4761 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 12-15-24, 01:45 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Thoughts on Episode 12 - Missed Opportunity" Thanks Michel My work laptop now blocks a lot of site including this one. My personal desktop has been sitting unused for years. Finally pulled it out to post here but it is SO darn slow! In Genevieve's exit interview she does say she wasn't trying hard since winning would have foiled their plans and their must be a lot of bonding we didn't see as Genevieve said she was very close with Sam which is why it surprised her when he turned on her. Well the Winner having a Boat/Beach Confessional and/or talking with Jeff on the mat in the opening is mostly a New Era editing thing for every season 41-46. It also happened in Seasons 39 and 40 but those had different type of Openings. Now we are down to the Final 4 Teeny talking with Jeff on the mat Sam with a Boat Confessional Sue with a Beach Confessional Rachel didn't speak Seems like for sure Rachel is Winning. That will break the Opening Edit thing. She also might tie the female Individual Immunity Challenge record if she wins the Final 4 challenge. Could Rachel also be the first Unamimous Vote Female Winner?   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

michel2 4676 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 12-18-24, 05:25 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Thoughts on Episode 12 - Missed Opportunity" You might be due for an update. Maybe ask Santa for a new Computer! I do think Rachel is the winner because everyone made the case for her at F6TC but I don't think it will be unanimous. Sierra will likely vote for Sam if he is there while Caroline is a probable vote for Sue.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

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