I won't go into a deep analysis as I used to do but these are my impressions at this stage where we have 8 players left, namely: Kyle, Genevieve, Sam and the new alliance of underdogs that is emerging according the «Next Time on Survivor» promotion. That grouping contains Sue, Caroline, Teeny, Andy & Rachel and I do believe it will be solid because these five have been waltzing around each other for some time.Kyle: A good guy that is way too much of a threat to keep around. Sue is a sure vote against him so it's just a question of time or rather they are just waiting for him to lose the immunity necklace.
Sam: Another good guy who hasn't lived up to his physical potential although it was evident in the tribal segment of the game. He will be targeted if Kyle is immune or as soon as his shield is gone.
Genevieve: A great manipulator who showed her hand too early. She had been my pick for winner as early as the Kishan elimination but going for Sol was like doubling down when the dealer has an Ace. Bad timing. No one trusts her and you can't play when no one listens.
The Final 5 should be our «Underdogs» unless someone else wins immunity at F6.
In that alliance I see:
Teeny: She's a typical «Player on a Journey» as defined by Veruca Salt all those years ago. Of all the players Veruca identified as being on a Journey only Aras managed to win and while there have been a few others since, I don't see Teeny joining that small group. Teeny is looking for an identity through the game and while she still hasn't resolved her issues, the fact that she's outlasted so many others should give her the confidence she lacks. The problem with Teeny is that she has no hand in the game and no one that is a true partner in that alliance. She'll be a vote for them but she'll be discarded as soon as her value falls below the threat she poses. Her only path to the Finale would be to use the intelligence about the «Underdogs» and go back to Genevieve. There are two problems with that path is that it would be a 4 - 4 tie and Teeny would be the least player ion that group. She will see that road as a dead end.
Caroline: Contrary to Teeny, Caroline does have a #1 ally in Sue so she might be entrenched in the game. While I'm not ready to give her a seat in the Final 3, I can envision a path for her to make it but will she get the votes with such a light CV ? It would greatly depend on who sits with her and how she gets there. A Final 3 win would greatly help her resumé but getting dragged into the Finale would prove that she doesn't deserve the title.
Sue: I definitely see her in the Final 3 not because she has an idol but because why would anyone waste a vote to get her out ? She's an enabler and will help the alliance make it to the end and also help the cannibalization of the group but who will benefit the most from it ? I doubt it will be her. OK, revealing that she is 59 will impress the jury but, outside of Sol, no one is old enough to understand the rigors of old age. I feel it would just be a number for them.
Andy: I will throw something at my TV if Andy wins this game but I think that, just like me, the jury has no respect for his game and maybe more importantly for him as a person. I am sure that is the case for Sierra and Sam and they will have convincing arguments to influence the other jurors. Who doesn't remember his horrible showing on Day 1 and his unreliability ever since? He has the «Carolyn Wiger» edit, getting a lot of attention but it has no real substance because it's not what the players know about him.
Rachel: She has had a difficult game and wasn't in on two key votes, namely those that saw Anika leave and Sierra join the jury but she has finally solidly harnessed Andy and she can run circles around him when it comes to tactics and overall strategy. I can see them voting out Carolyn and Teeny and Rachel managing to garner all the credit for the moves. If it is her in the Finale with Andy and Sue, I see a huge majority in her favor, something like 7 - 1 - 0.
Go Rachel !