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"The Characters and Their Stories - Post Merger Analysis"
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michel2 4556 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-24, 09:43 PM (EST)
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"The Characters and Their Stories - Post Merger Analysis"
A More Serious Look at the Players and their presentation

Now that we've had the first episode of the truly merged tribe, let's look at the characters and see if we can make a prediction as to the winner.

Liz: her episode started when Tevin presented her with the plan to eliminate Soda.  Liz almost jumped for joy because she had been wanting Soda out.
She felt it was like the Survivor gods smailing upon her.
No, it was Tevin...or was it Venus... well maybe Maria!

It seems Liz was only shown because her vote was crucial.  She may have been the only one who was Soda all the way but it didn't feel like it was HER move

Ben: Ben had a panic attack but received calming aid from Kenzie.

Ben himself used the term and he has been an«entertainment monkey»in this game.  Sure, he's had warm moments but it isn't about the game and it won't be for Ben


Charlie: Out of nowhere, Charlie came clean about his vote to Venus.
After being put in his place by Q, Charlie tells us: «Q is running this show and no one is allowed to have any other idea... I need to get Q out of the game.»

Is it a good idea to do this?  There was tension in the air for Venus but now she knows which makes her path clearer.
Charlie recognizes his bad situation after the challenge.  He tells us he isn't in the mood for a nap but would rather talk.
Soda was the first to pop and she came with good news:  She was targeting Venus!

Charlie has some great points to his story but his main one is the connection he has with Maria.  
He calls her his «ride or die» but Ifeel Maria would let him die to advance.

Q: He had all his eggs, it seems in the «Journey 6» alliance and he's the one that had to break it when he heard Tim was targeting Hunter.
Will he be able to convince Maria to stay in that alliance and replace Tim with Charlie?
She may actually like that idea IF she can be convinced that it was Tim who launched the first salvo.
Q was disappointed when he heard Charlie making his admission to Venus.  «Having Venus thinking it was Soda...It was going to be the perfect plan...»
Q then put Charlie «in his place».  The scene finished with a handshake between the two but, as we saw, Charlie had something to tell us.

Didn't Q  compound the mistake?

After the challenge, Q reveals a secret:  He had been more or less tanking the challenges to avoid being a target.
Talking to  Tim, he realized that the only available target outside the «Journey 6», Ben, was not a consideration for Tim who wanted Hunter out instead.
That didn't sit well with Q at all who understood Hunter was a physical threat but that was ok with Q:  It's those with skills off the gridiron that bother him.
Since Tim wasn't playing the «Q Game», Tim was going home tonight.

Even if he is a formidable opponent, this doesn't feel like Q's Game.  Too many people are on to him so that will catch up with him.

Tiffany: She had a very small but important role in this episode:  She told us that Q was overstepping his territory, telling everyone what to do.  

I feel Tiffany will play an important role in deciding which way the game swings but it won't be to her benefit.

Hunter: The recap was quick to remind us the Hunter has an idol that is still a secret.
He had the interview after the challenge:  Not only was he part of the group that would vote first but he was the only Nami in a group with 3 Yanu.

Hunter played the solitary game well, bonding with the majority to eliminate a strong player buty again, it doesn't feel that it is Hunter's game.  
He is a supporting actor, not the star.

The Top 4 Contenders:

Kenzie: Along with Q, Kenzie was shown trying to play Yanu's position to infiltrate Nami which has cracks.
Her intervention with Ben made her once more very sympathetic in the viewers' eyes.
In her interview, she even admitted that, in this game, it might have been better to leave him in that state but it is second nature to her.
Kenzie won Immunity for her group and, soon after, we'd hear her happy to have checked something unexpected off her bucket list.
 
The credit that Q gave to Kenzie during Tribal council reminded me of what Erik said about Natalie that carried her to victory over the dreaded Hantz.
No doubt that if she makes the Final 3, Kenzie, who has received tons of doubt just by facing so many Councils, would be the favorite to win.  
But will she make it?  I feel her story is too human to be the Sole Survivor.

Tevin: Hot on the heels of the Venus and Soda argument, Tevin had a confessional «Watching (them) is the hottest Tea (?) tonight.»
For him, the two are toxic and they are showing it.  He then had a million dollar Quote: «Hopefully... that takes me closer to the million dollars.»

From the star of the first episode, Tevin has grown into quite a cold, unsympathetic character.  
These two are his tribe mates and he's throwing them to the wolves at a critical juncture.

A funny incident during the challenge:  Tevin started a game but he was accused of making up the rules as he went along and no one actually played his game.
Does that mean tha later on, Tevin will propose a complex plan that will not be followed.  Well we can say that it already happened in this episode.
He started thinking of that plan during the feast:  It wasn't Nami vs Siga, it was going to be a blindside and he was going to organize it.
He didn't name his target but the cameras left no doubt, showing us Venus thinking about poor Hunter.

When Tevin heard Soda talking about voting for Venus, it was like she was pulling the rug from under his feet.  
Tevin couldn't have that so he started talking about blindsiding Soda. because Soda «always talks, talks, talks, talks, talks.»
The way he says it, it sounds like a hen clucking!  But seriously, Soda was going to be the first highlight of his résumé.
It might turn out to be the point that costs him the game!
After Liz, Tevin continued his round and tried to sell Maria and Charlie on the idea of eliminating Soda.
Of course they liked the idea.  They liked it so much that they stayed with it even when Tevin backed out!

This was Tevin's show, this was his game but he has become cold and unfriendly in a group that seems to place Human Qualities well ahead of Outwit.
Wrong season for Tevin but hey! Even Boston Rob had 3 losses before finally gathering enough sheep to win!


Venus:
When Q mentions the cracks in Nami, Venus and Soda are shown front and center.  We know Soda fizzled out so where does that leave Venus?
Even before this episode started, we saw Charlie putting a vote on Venus.
The Canadian Cutie got the first confessional:  «Seeing my name...it was terrible...»  She goes on to say she thinks it's Soda but Soda denies it.

Is Venus rising or in retrograde?  That seems to be the season's vital question.
Well a hint could come from the intro where we see a woman, presumably a Fijian native but who looks a lot like Venus, lets out a mighty scream

After Maria's short confessional, Venus had a much meatier one, where she laid out the first plan:  Charlie was alone with Maria against four Nami.
Unfortunately, the plan was about to get more complicated thanks to Tevin and once more, doubt was cast on Venus.
Realizing no one was talking to her, Venus thought she should change the game so SHE approached Maria with the idea to eliminate Tevin or Soda, preferably Tevin.
Venus wanted to play with fire, she wanted to make big moves but she had the wrong target.  
Venus didn't like the way Maria put her off but they had time to regroup before the Council.

I could see Venus having the winning edit but she isn't rising enough.  
Like the planet Venus who, except during a total eclipse of the sun, cannot be seen very far above the horizon, I think Venus cannot reach her zenith.

Maria: She won immunity and reward for her group.
Her post-challenge interview was quick, just mentioning her win and the feast.

Maria had a confessional: «Poor Venus!  Venus is trying very hard to get some footing in this game but she is... not reading the room.
She threw out Tevin's name and I think that's a mistake.  Tevin and I are part of an alliance of 6 so tevin was never an option.»
Maria even gave a life lesson to the young Venus, telling her she comes at people.
The decision was up to Charlie and Maria.

From the beginning people have been corraling around Maria.  
She must be radiating excellent vibes for everyone to seek her wisdom, her thoughts and her help.  
She is the tribe's mom and not that the Dad has been shown the door, who else could stand in her way?
The Family Final 4 Theory is left without that dad that so often wins.  Ben is more the crazy uncle than a dad and Tevin is too much like an overgrown teenager!
Maria will line up her kids, tell them to send the neighbors' children out of the game and show everyone what it takes to be the SOLE SURVIVOR!

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 THANKS Again Michel! Sheldor 04-14-24 1
   Thank you, Sheldor michel2 04-23-24 2
       RE: Thank you, Sheldor Sheldor 04-24-24 3
           Update on those 4 images michel2 04-26-24 4
               RE: Update on those 4 images Sheldor 04-26-24 5
 F6 - Who Can Win? michel2 05-11-24 6
   RE: F6 - Who Can Win? Sheldor 05-13-24 7
       RE: F6 - Who Can Win? michel2 05-14-24 8
           RE: F6 - Who Can Win? Sheldor 05-15-24 9

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Sheldor 4708 desperate attention whore postings
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04-14-24, 10:37 AM (EST)
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1. "THANKS Again Michel!"
LAST EDITED ON 04-24-24 AT 05:25 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-14-24 AT 10:48 AM (EST)

THANKS Again Michel!

Loved your analysis! I could definitely see those 4 being the Final 4. The edit to me seems like Venus will outlast Tevin.



One correction.

"A funny incident during the challenge: Tevin started a game but he was accused of making up the rules as he went along and no one actually played his game."

That was Q not Tevin.



"Well a hint could come from the intro where we see a woman, presumably a Fijian native but who looks a lot like Venus, lets out a mighty scream"

I'm pretty sure that is Venus. There are 4 Players shown before the all 18 Players are listed.

  1. Venus
  2. Hunter
  3. Tiffany
  4. Tevin

Seems like those 4 will play prominent rolls in the season.

Like the planet Venus who, except during a total eclipse of the sun, cannot be seen very far above the horizon, I think Venus cannot reach her zenith.

I saw the Full Total Eclipse in 2017 and this past Monday and it's real cool how Venus appears as the Sun starts being blocked by the Moon!

Yeah, I think my pre-season winner pick Venus is probably a Zero Vote Finalist



Maria will line up her kids, tell them to send the neighbors' children out of the game and show everyone what it takes to be the SOLE SURVIVOR!

It definitely feels from the edit that Maria will be the Winner.

However...

  • Maria did NOT get an Opening Confessional in Episode 1! From Siga only Charlie got an Opening Confessional.

  • However, Maria was tied (with Kenzie & Soda) for 6th most Ep1 Confessionals with 5.

  • After Episode 7, Maria has the 2nd LOWEST number of confessionals with 16! She is only above Liz with 11!

    If Maria is the winner, she will be almost as under edited as Erika in Season 41 who was also 2nd Lowest after Episode 7 with only 12 Confessionals (above Heather with ONLY 4!).



    Now if Kenzie with the MOST 42 Confessionals wins she will likely beat the Female Winner with the most Confessionals which was Tina Wesson with 69.
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    michel2 4556 desperate attention whore postings
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    04-23-24, 06:46 PM (EST)
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    2. "Thank you, Sheldor"
    I like your own analysis
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    Sheldor 4708 desperate attention whore postings
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    04-24-24, 05:24 AM (EST)
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    3. "RE: Thank you, Sheldor"
    Thanks again Michel

    Regarding the 4 images before the credits, well we are down to only 3 of the 4 left!

    1. Venus
    2. Hunter
    3. Tiffany
    4. Tevin
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    michel2 4556 desperate attention whore postings
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    04-26-24, 06:55 PM (EST)
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    4. "Update on those 4 images"
    2 are left: Venus and Tiffany.

    Also, the once feared Nami are down to only 2: Liz and Venus and they face 2 threesomes so it could be good for them. Get rid of Q and then go with Tiff and Kenzie. Although, if Q goes we'd be down to 5 women and only 2 guys. It would be hard to separate Maria and Charlie but if she sees him as a threat to win, which she should, then maybe we could see 5 women at the end.

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    Sheldor 4708 desperate attention whore postings
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    04-26-24, 08:57 PM (EST)
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    5. "RE: Update on those 4 images"
    Yup! Only Venus and Tiffany left!

    And for the Opening Confessionals...

    Here are the 10 players that got Confessionals in the Opening up until Jeff says it is time for the Reward Challenge.

    1. Nami Tevin (Eliminated 9th)
    2. Yanu Bhanu (Eliminated 4th)
    3. Yanu Jess (Eliminated 2nd)
    4. Nami Hunter (Eliminated 10th)
    5. Siga Charlie
    6. Yanu Tiffany
    7. Nami Venus
    8. Yanu Kenzie
    9. Nami Soda (Eliminated 8th)
    10. Yanu Q

    Note: Jeff did NOT have a mat chat with anyone this season!

    Here are the 8 players with NO Opening Confessionals

    1. Yanu Jelinsky (Eliminated 1st)
    2. Nami Randen (Eliminated 3rd)
    3. Siga Jem (Eliminated 5th)
    4. Siga Moriah (Eliminated 6th)
    5. Siga Tim (Eliminated 7th)
    6. Nami Liz
    7. Siga Ben
    8. Siga Maria

    Only 5 left that had an Opening Confessional (Charlie, Tiffany, Venus, Kenzie, and Q)

    Only 3 left that did NOT have an Opening Confessional (Liz, Ben, and Maria)!


    I would expect them to try to flush Tiffany's idol next as it is already Final 8 and only 3 more times she can play it. Put 5 votes on Tiffany and 2 votes on Q and let Tiffany vote for Q or someone else.

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    michel2 4556 desperate attention whore postings
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    05-11-24, 11:20 PM (EST)
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    6. "F6 - Who Can Win?"
    We are down to the Final 6 so I'd like to start a discussion on the eventual winner.

    Of the remaining players, Liz, Ben, Charlie, Maria, Kenzie & Q, I think, from an editing and game play analysis, we can only really eliminate Q. No matter what he'd need to do to get to the end, there is no way he would receive a single vote except maybe from Tevin who could show kindness to a Brother.

    Liz, I feel, is the one whose possibilities aren't nil but aren't great. The thing is that we've seen Liz making fire quite a few times an even if she isn't great at it I wonder if it's an indication that she wins the fire challenge. I rate Liz's chance low because she shouldn't make it to the F3 but if she does, she would count on a huge sympathy vote. No one has suffered more than her and if she Outlasts the 17 others, maybe the jury wouldn't care that her Outplay and Outwit scores are extremely low.

    Ben can count on being in the Siga majority and being extremely likable but Outlaugh or Outrock aren't elements of the game. When have we heard him talk about strategy? From what we've seen, the game is played without his active implication. He hasn't won an immunity and wasn't an MVP in the tribal portion so for a young healthy man, his Outplay score is seriously lacking. He'd need a Final 2 with Q to win!

    The Big Three are Kenzie, Charlie and Maria.

    Kenzie has a wonderful story of having survived the plight of Yanu. She has won an immunity and up to Tiffany's elimination she was in on every vote. Maybe flirting with the idea of going with Venus, Liz and Charlie to flip the game on Maria will count against her if she makes it to the end. As we saw, that foursome didn't last after Venus' blunder and Kenzie had to make a retreat and wound up voting with Maria.
    For me, Kenzie is the traditional «Player on a Journey» who is extremely likable, lasts long, but doesn't make it to the end.

    The cameras have spent a lot of time showing us most facets of Charlie's game and if he does manage to get to the end without Maria he'd be the favorite to win. However, time is running short and he can't count on the advantage Venus wanted to share with him. While it is understandable that he couldn't trust the Iranian-Canadian, it would have been a much stronger move to go with her.
    The problem with Charlie's edit is that there is no doubt around him. We have never heard anyone other than Venus at the time of the merger talking about eliminating him. As we know, there are ALWAYS talks, either privately in interviews or between allies, of eliminating everyone at one point or another. However, we haven't been privy to any menace surrounding Charlie. I wouldn't be surprised to see Charlie winning since he has an amazing all-around game (Two Immunities and in on all the votes) but I feel he will fall short.

    I am left with Maria. From the start, all the way back in Siga, she was the leading force behind all the votes, forming not only an alliance with the other two women but getting Charlie to join, forming the «Charlie's Angel» alliance. Behind that facade, it was always the Maria-Charlie duo that decided Siga's path to the merger.
    After the merger, I would need to look again at Moriah and Tim's eliminations but, as I remember, Maria was more or less, sacrificing them so that Siga wouldn't look so menacing. That sacrifice allowed her to focus everyone's attention on Nami who were quickly decimated, representing 4 of the following 5 next votes.
    A problem she could face is being so closely associated with the hated Q. Parvati lost Heroes vs Villains because of the stain that Hantz left on her game. Maria NEEDS to dispatch Q next. It would be easy to get the votes and after his departure Maria can control the game either by staying with her two Siga allies or shifting to a more promising women's alliance.
    The doubt that is lacking in Charlie's game was injected in Maria's by the talks between Charlie and Venus even if they amounted to nothing.

    I believe that Maria will be The Sole Survivor of Season 46!

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    Sheldor 4708 desperate attention whore postings
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    05-13-24, 08:35 PM (EST)
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    7. "RE: F6 - Who Can Win?"
    Great Analysis Michel!

    If Maria wins she would have a terrible edit. NO Opening Confessional, NO Emotional Backstory (yet), and only 31 Confessionals after Episode 11 (only ONE more than Liz and Ben with only 30 confessionals)!

    After Episode 11...

    1. 69 Q ( Opening Confessional + Backstory)
    2. 65 Kenzie ( Opening Confessional + Backstory)
    3. 63 Charlie ( Opening Confessional + Backstory)
    4. 31 Maria (NO Opening Confessional + NO Backstory)
    5. 30 Ben (NO Opening Confessional + NO Backstory)
    6. 30 Liz (NO Opening Confessional + Backstory)

    I think Maria has the hardest path to Final 3 and will likely be voted out at Final 6 or Final 5 if she doesn't win Immunity. With Maria's edit, I find it hard to see her winning unless she gets to Final 3 with Ben and Liz.

    I think Charlie will beat Maria if they are both in the Final 3 but he would lose to Kenzie.

    I think Kenzie will win if she makes Final 3 no matter who she is up against (even though 2nd Most Confessionals after Ep11 has never won before).

    I think Liz, Ben, or Q is S46 Zero Vote Finalist

    Comparing Episode 11 Confessional Counts in Season 46 with Seasons 41-45...

    SxxWinner2nd3rd4th5th6th
    S4120 Erika36 Deshawn36 Xander_6 Heather28 Ricard25 Danny
    S4229 Maryanne43 Mike24 Romeo24 Jonathan24 Lindsay36 Omar
    S4332 Gabler26 Cassidy32 Owen45 Jesse37 Karla46 Cody
    S4458 Yam Yam24 Heidi52 Carolyn42 Carson22 Lauren29 Jaime
    S4543 Dee51 Austin41 Jake53 Katurah35 Julie56 Drew

    The ONLY Winner that had the Highest Confessionals after Episode 11 was S45 Yam Yam with 58 Confessionals!

    The ONLY Winner that had the 5th Most Confessionals after Episode 11 was S41 Erika with only 20 Confessionals!

    THREE out of Five times the Winner had the 3rd Confessionals after Episode 11 (S42 Maryanne, S43 Gabler, S45 Dee)

    The Player with the 2nd Most Confessionals after Episode 11 has NEVER won.

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    michel2 4556 desperate attention whore postings
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    05-14-24, 05:40 PM (EST)
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    8. "RE: F6 - Who Can Win?"
    You can't write NEVER but only use the last 5 seasons! It hasn't happened in the new format, I will give you that. Also, throughout the history of this show Women winners are almost all cruelly under-edited so I wouldn't compare Maria to loudmouth Gabbler or Yak-Yak! While a little lower than Dee, Maria nicely compares to the other women.

    Also, while your confessional count is great, it neglects all of the time we,ve heard her talking to others about strategy. She has been driving the game and we've seen that.

    However, I give you that Charlie and Kenzie do look good.

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    Sheldor 4708 desperate attention whore postings
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    05-15-24, 02:07 PM (EST)
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    9. "RE: F6 - Who Can Win?"
    I should have prefaced my entire post that only New Era comparison as 26 Days, 90 minute episodes, etc. all make New Era editing different plus explicitly stating they are trying to edit New Era more balanced especially after Erika won in Season 41.
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