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"S39|Island of the Idols| Confessionals"
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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"

10-02-19, 06:56 PM (EST)
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"S39|Island of the Idols| Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 10-02-19 AT 09:37 PM (EST)

     

Episode | I | 1 | total
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | 6
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | 6
Molly~ V | * | 3 | 3
Vince~ L | * | 3 | 3
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 3
Janet~ V | * | 2 | 2
Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | 2
Kelley~ V | * | 2 | 2
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 2
Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1
Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1
Dan~ V | * | 1 | 1
Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 1
Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 1
Dean~ L | * | * | *

Okay, welcome! Going to *try* and attempt these confessionals. Everyone got one except Dean. The intro were really just statements, and here they are:

Elizabeth: 39 seasons, this game is full of twists and turns,]She got this quote as she was the one that was chosen for the major twist and theme of the show?

Jack: There are endless things that you have to adapt to. Will Jack prove adaptable?

Aaron: Survivor is where it’s at now because of ???, and it’s about to get crazy ...And, it got really crazy for Aaron when he was blindsided by the boot!

Elaine and Elizabeth had the most confessionals, Elaine was the boot target and Elizabeth was first chosen to partake in the theme of the season. They got the most air time.
Elaine's first confessional was number 19 of the show. Here they are:

I’ve been diff’t my whole life and I got picked on. So, I use humor to deflect. I make ‘em laugh with me and not at me. She gives us personal insight.

After Missy let her know she had heard her name~from here on out the confessionals are in regard to the current situation and reactionary.
That got me a little worried. When you first hear your name it made my heart race a little bit. It’s okay. But, you don’t want your name to come up, in S, ever. So, I need to start playing a better game because I am not ok with going home.

After her talk with Ronnie: I knew as soon as I had a conversation with Ronnie that me and him were like this....hands apart. I knew it in my gut, he’s a weasel, I don’t trust Ronnie. So to me, he has to go. It’s like duel time, guns drawn, let’s go. Let’s find out.

I’m worried about going into TC, because my name is out there and I’m banking on relationships, connections.

I knew it in my gut, I’m going home. I’m going to pray to stay and pray that things work out, but it may not be in God’s plan.

It’s pissing me off that I am even on their radar, I don’t know why it is that I am being throwed out there. ....(see Elaine talk with Aaron, Ronnie, Tom, Chelsea)....Aaron says that I am too nice, he was throwing every complement he could think of at me. He was trying to make me feel better and I guess I understand, I wouldn’t want to sit next to someone like me at the end. But, these people have to realize that they have to make it to the end.

Elizabeth had 6 confessionals, she had one in the intro as noted above. Here are the others:

Her first one is descriptive about herself: I am a 3 time olympic swimmer and I am a competitor. It’s basically embedded within my DNA because I have been a competitive swimmer my whole life. I stepped away about a year ago and it was a very hard transition because you are at such a high note and you wonder will I ever get there again? This game has hontestly made me as excited as I was for the olympics. I never thought I would feel that again. Interesting to note that her confessional ends with a chirp from a little birdie in the tree. Is Elizabeth our little birdie?

Next, she is the chosen one to go to I of the I's....these are long confessionals:
I am freaking out. Me going to I of the I puts a target on my back and while I am away I am missing critically impt strategizing time with the tribe. I don’t think S gods are going to make it easy so I don’t know what is in store for me. Day 3, Island of the idols: This beach is one of the most beautiful that I have ever seen and I don’t know what I am going to walk into....she sees the statues, I see these 2 massive statues, BR and Sanndra two of the best players to ever play this game! And then out come BR and Sandra....I was so excited, surprised in awe!

Third confessional: Coming back to camp I was contemplating in my head what am I going to tell my tribe. I don’t want to seem untrustworthy and I don’t want to lie but Sandra and BR told me to trust my gut and it’s telling me that I am going to have to because knowledge is power in this game. I hate lying but today is going to have to be my first big lie.

Her last confessional was the last one before TC...I am the most popular girl at camp....everybody wanted to talk to me because they needed my vote.....she talks to Aaron. Aaron was telling me that it’s going to be vince but Aaron wants Elaine. Other people want Ronnie. I have no idea, I want to tell the people that I am close with but you don’t tell them a thing. I want to get to the end and unfortunately it’s going to take me lying. I have the worst case scenario as I don’t have a vote and now I have 9 diff’t people coming up to me telling me 9 diff’t things that I have to keep straight in my mind. My brain is fried, it’s scrambled eggs at this point. The sun is going down and we are headed into TC, and I don’t know what is going to happen tonight. I honestly have no idea.

Molly, Vince, and Aaron all had 3 confessionals. Molly first assesses her tribe: Every one on our tribe seems bright and smart and social. And, everyone is real excited to be here, I think it’s a positive thing, and we are ready to get to work Next, Already I can see the core group form which is great because I don’t want to be the person on the outs and I think we just clicked. Because we want to have a good time, we need to get rid of the drama, we need to get rid of the slimminess, like this is a tribe game, let’s make this easy and Jason is the one that is running around trying to do something for himself, it rubbed people the wrong way.

Last, she complains about Dan, but wants to be careful. I was a little taken aback by Dan at first, he’s like really touchy and Dan does not know personal space. I want to be really delicate about this, it is a game and I don’t want to ruffle feathers for as long as I can. You get yourself in a hole early and it’s really hard to climb out of it.

Vince also had 3 confessionals. He gives us some insight into himself...
I am the first Hmong person to be cast on S. Hmong people are a small SE ASian group that came over as refugees after the Viet Nam war. So I grew up in low income, I was the first in my family to go to an institution like Stanford. Though I have always been the type of person who does the work.

After the poor performance in the challenge: at the moment I am working with Tom, Chelsea and Elaine to vote against Ronnie, but I feel that my name is on the chopping block because the puzzle didn’t come together. And, that’s where it gets me really worried.

Finally, They want to target Elaine, I don’t want to go down that route with them. I totally trust Elaine and I think she has my back as well so I need to make sure that Elaine doesn’t get the short end of the stick here.

Aaron had 3 confessionals, one was in the intro. His two others were they were gone, and those people immediately painted a target on their back.

Next was at the end of the episode...I looked at Elaine right in the eyes and told her it was going to be Vince. I I haven’t made that decision yet. Is it Vince, or is it Elaine?

Aaron tells us because they were gone they painted the target on their own backs, and then helps deliver suspense before TC.

Five people had 2 confessionals. Janet had one about how she wanted to dispel the old lady weaker tribunate facade, and went about proving it with her skills. Her first confessional told us who she was, what her plan was, and then we saw her execute it. We also heard Tommy call her "Super Mom". LOL. Her second was in regard to Dan, The girls are very uncomfortable with Dan’s physicality. And, I’ve learned in my life, as a woman, you need to say what you think. Some mom advice, then we see Kellee go and talk to him.

Jason had 2 confessionals. And, they were kind of opposite....first one was, I’m thinking to myself this season is I of the I’s so you got to be an idiot to not actually look for an idol. Then, the second was this: Noura comes to me and says, Hey, I just want to give you a heads up that there is talk and chatter about me, I just left the camp for 20-30 minutes. I’m concerned. Is there any person that would be more of a liability and distrustful than somebody that would go and search for the HII on day 1? I am mortified. Am I going to be the first one out? That is my night mare.

I found Jason somewhat amusing.

Karishma had the first confessional after the intro...We are headed to this beautiful beach on Fiji, there are no words to describe it, it is like an understatement. I’ve got all these mixed emotions ready to burst out but I have to keep them down. As soon as I get off the boat I have to be calm, cool, collected, Karishma. She's game ready! Second, I am definitely concerned about Elaine, she is hilarious, but she is not here to be the comedian, she’s here to win a million dollars. But, the first alliance that I made was with Elaine and the women. I’m so confused right now.

Kellee's confessionals were about Dan and his lack of social awareness. It was about how she is a germaphobe and it's hard playing Survivor, the closeness and Dan has no spatial awareness and get your sweaty head OFF me...Her second is an opinion that Dan's lack of spatial awareness is not going to serve him in this game. Kellee's confessionals were bad about other people. Nothing from her about her own plan.

Jack had a comment on the intro, and one other that in contrast to Kellee's was very positive. He spoke about his youth and fun loving nature how it would serve him in the game and that his number 1 was Tommy.

Chelsea had one long confessional and it was a reaction to the start of the game with no Jiffy, and no marooning, and then in regard to seeing the title of the season, I of the I's. It would cause paranoia, she knows there are twists to come but right now she has to focus on the shelter.

Dan's confessional was arrogant...ason just disappeared it was the cliche, the top 10 of what not to do, go looking for an idol on day one. So, when I noticed that Jason was gone, my goal was to say, where’s Jason? AS I look at my job, it’s like I play S everyday, I’m a talent manager and I run a talent management company in Hollywood, and working with actors, it’s very similar to S. I have to get a bunch of very aggressive, passionate people to make the decisions that I really believe are the best for them and me. So, there was complete strategy in noticing that Jason was just wandering off. And, all I wanted was a first vote that wasn’t me. And, I gotta tell you, it was joyous to watch. Done, it’s over. It is impossible now for Jason to dig himself out of that grave.

With people talking poorly about Dan, and this arrogant statement makes me feel like Dan could be next.

Jamal's confessional was a bit like Jack's, up beat and positive.The Vokai tribe is going awesome, it could not be going more well. We have a shelter, a fire, good morale. We’re fun, we’re chillin'.

Lauren had one that comments on the theme of the season, it's surprising, it's cool!

Noura had on confessional that told us she liked Jason, reminds her of an ex, and she want to work with him and she tells us that she went to tell him.

Ronny had one confessional about watching what other players bring to the game.

Tom had a confessional: I guess the guy that surprised me that definitely knew what he was doing with the tools was Vince. Growing up on a farm I knew how to use the saw and that kind of stuff but Elaine, she’s not all prissy with a dress on, she’s got a hat on and I’m hitting it off right away.When I played in the NHL I was a captn in every team that I played on and if you play on a team and you all want to win, it isn’t all physical strength, like Gretsky, wasn’t the biggest guy but probably the best to ever play the game. My goal is all about discipline and hard work, see Elaine say me and you stick together and just ride it out to Tom.....and Vince, Elaine and I, I think we all think the same way.

So, he likes Vince and Elaine, he's team captain and values discipline and hard work.

Tommy also had a nice upbeat confessional and tells us about himself and his plan...As a fourth grade teacher my job is to make everyone feel comfortable around me and in the game I am doing the same thing. And, my strategy was to connect with people on one on one conversations and get to the know who they truly are. see him tear up as he talks about proposing to his gf to Lauren. Everyone has been coming up to me and I think I am doing a great job connecting with people one on one and I am building a lot of alliances. see the six....Molly, Kellee, Jack, Tommy, Lauren, Dan, and Jack likes Jamal, for seven

I would say as far as I can tell that Dan or Jason is at the most risk at Vokai and at Lorai I think Elaine, Vince and Tom, as the three that went off together could be at risk as well.

I will try to get this in earlier, so sorry!


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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 E 2 Confessionals | YOLO Flowerpower1 10-06-19 1
 Episode 3 Confessionals Flowerpower1 10-15-19 2
 RE: S39|Island of the Idols| Ep 4 C... Flowerpower1 10-22-19 3
   RE: S39|Island of the Idols| Ep 4 C... michel2 10-22-19 4
       RE: S39|Island of the Idols| Ep 4 C... Flowerpower1 10-22-19 5
 Ep 5 Confessionals Flowerpower1 10-30-19 6
 Ep 6 Confessionals Flowerpower1 11-06-19 7
 Ep 7 Confessionals Flowerpower1 11-11-19 8
   RE: Ep 7 Confessionals Flowerpower1 11-14-19 9
 Ep 8 Confessionals Flowerpower1 11-19-19 10
   RE: Ep 8 Confessionals Sheldor 11-21-19 11
 Ep 9 Confessionals ~ Two for the Pr... Flowerpower1 12-08-19 12
 Episode 10 Confessionals | Bring on... Flowerpower1 12-10-19 13
 Episode 11 Confessionals | A Simple... Flowerpower1 12-11-19 14
   RE: Episode 11 Confessionals | A Si... Sheldor 12-11-19 15
 Ep 12, Penultimate Confessionals Flowerpower1 12-15-19 16

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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"

10-06-19, 05:04 PM (EST)
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1. "E 2 Confessionals | YOLO"
     

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | total
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | 6
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 6
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5
Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 4
Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 4
Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 4
Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 3
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 3
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 3
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 2
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 2
Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 2
Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2
Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 2
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1
Dean~ L | * | * | * | *

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X


The person that gets the longest confessional time is the person that goes to I of the I's. Last week it was Elizabeth and this week it's Kellee. I gave Kellee credit for 2 confessionals as one was throughout her time at I of the I's, then it continued on to her time returning to her tribe. But, make no mistake it really is just one very long interview that encompasses it all. Kellee won an idol. And, as michel noted she did seem to heed the lesson of the day, PAY ATTENTION and listen to what your tribemates are saying. We saw her expressions when Lauren suggested Molly, and then later when Tommy discussed his dismay. She left the decision up to Tommy and said that she would be with him. She also underlined the gist of the matter at TC and her statement was the last of the TC before the vote.

Jason had a stellar episode. His confessionals included: Noura and I are on the outs and Noura getting in trouble is clearly good for my game, but, I’m in this weird complex with Noura right now because she’s my friend. I got into trouble early in this game. The only person that really came to my side was Noura. I owe her something, I really do. We see his loyalty to Noura, but we saw Noura almost throw him under the bus, indirectly. His second was: This is like fine music to my ears. I was like are you kidding me? Since the trade winds are blowing and that’s to take out Molly. Now, am I 100% certain of that? Hell no! It sounds too good to be true!

Aaron had 2 confessionals first about his thoughts post blindside at TC. Everybody is saying the right things but I don’t trust anyone, at all. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice? That’s not gonna happen. Fortunately for them, their day will come.

Can't blame him for being mad, but I think he's sitting as well as he can at this point on that tribe. He's their strongest male, and knowing that the women are in charge, he's probably safe for a few episodes. He was schooled! His second confessional was narrational about the lack of fire....Making fire has been something that we have been talking about since day 1, really hour one of building the camp. And it’s not easy and it didn’t happen. First TC, it didn’t go the way I wanted it to go, and now this, I am beyond frustrated. If I were a gambling person I would bet that we are going to get wet and cold and it sucks. And, as michel noted, this narration could bode well for him at least until merge time.

Noura had two confessionals as well. First we saw that she is annoying and is indeed a target along with Jason. Noura seems that she is the one that is jealous of Molly, as she notes...Molly is not that strong and not that helpful around camp. She’s like this, she’s put together and knows how to talk charm. Whoa, that’s how she’s gaining everyone over, that’s dangerous. Then, her second continues...This sucks, the king the queen and the jack, they’re the royal party and everyone’s like, we’re not worthy, we’re not worthy, we want to fit in with you... and me and Jason are the underdogs, the misfits, the nerds; this is high school all over again!

Tommy had two confessionals too. His first is in the confessional of death spot, post IC loss. It’s our first taste of loss. And, everybody is on board to vote out either Noura or Jason.
Coming into this game I knew It would be really hard to put teacher Tommy aside and be Survivor Tommy, but you can’t put your neck out for somebody else. It’s every man for himself.
His second is the last confessional before TC....what will Tommy do?
I do think it’s a little too early to make this move, but they are petrified of Molly. If this happens I am losing two of my biggest allies with Jack and Jamal. I am so torn, so torn because they feel like Molly has too much power in the game.
....so, we have a really tough decision, do you go with the easy vote, or do we really want to shuffle the deck and make a move on our first TC? There’s the cool kids, there’s the nerds, and as my parents would always say, hang out with the right crew! This crew over here is the cool lunch crowd, and I want to be with them because I want to hang out with them, but, is the cool kids table whats best for you and your future? Which one is going to get me a Survivor million dollars? (Million dollar quote?)

Molly, the boot, had two. Her first bashes Noura about how annoying she is, and her second tells us that this is the easy vote. I want to vote out Noura immediately. Jack and Jamal have concerns about Jason, I don’t. I do think that Noura is the easy vote, but I also think she’s the smart vote. Because Noura has proven to be erratic. Now, we are going to have a nice afternoon, an easy vote, and life will go on. Let’s not mess it up.

Seven people had 1 confessional. Vince was the first of the show and was all about "me", and he was pissed. When we got back from tribal my ##### was maybe I should be nice, it’s okay, it’s just a game but that’s not who I am.

Missy had the next one which was stellar! Aaron was pretty mad, understandably so, but that was perfect! With a guy gone the girls alliance is in control. But, I know for a fact that me and him can still work together. But, he needs to stop crying, this is S. If people didn’t want to work with you’d be gone.

Tom comments on Chelsea coming right in and starting fire which ruins his male ego forever.

Chelsea had a long narration about not only starting fire but also about finding the idol and the girls alliance....I’m the one that started the fire! great feeling! I’m so happy expecially as a super fan, I’m so proud of myself! I’m in a good position right now, 5 girls in this tribe we have the numbers, the guy’s they’re cool but the girls are the ones dominating, we can do anything they can do, in fact we’re doing it better.
Cut to Chelsea finding an idol in a tree! She reads, congratulations you have found a hidden immunity idol!

....my heart was just thumping, I’ve dreamed of this moment, I can’t believe it happened! I was pumped! Ididn’t go to look for firewood thinking I would find the idol but any smart S player, you go to gather things your going to look for an idol. There were so many people around I was so scared, I just had to keep my composure but apparently these guys don’t know what’s going on, they don’t know there is a girls alliance, they don’t know how to find an idol and clearly they don’t know how to find a HII. I don’t know what is going on in their heads but the game is started and they are behind.

During the yoga session Jack has a confessional that complains about the yoga and the next part of it tells us that it's great here....This is a unique experience. And, I realize I don’t want to be sitting behind a desk or wearing a suit. To have a freaking adventure, to have a really good time. So, yeah, I feel really good here. Definitely, Jack does not appear to be here for the right reason. Can we cross him off our winner list?

Jack's confessional tells us how high he is on this experience so far, as we know later he will come crashing down when he's blindsided at TC. Same with Jamal, who also tells us how easy this is: This vote is pretty straight forward. Jason and Noura are on the outs so I think it’s best to split the vote to avoid anything crazy. Should someone have an idol. There is some concern that Jason did some searching early in the game so he is more dangerous to keep around.

I have this tight alliance with Molly and Jack where we are trying to be this unsuspecting threesome where we are trying to move this vote underneath the radar. I think we are really impressed with ourselves that we are handling this so well. I wonder what he will think after the TC?

When the lesson from the hour is to pay attention, we have Lauren's confessional: Hey Molly, I am watching you like a freaking hawk, and I know your game. And, I am not going to let your game play me. I’m gonna play you. The biggest threat right now is Molly and a blind man can see that these 3 are running this game. Why get out the people like Jason and Noura when I can use them and I don’t have to be a sheep and be herded and told what to do.

Lauren is watching everything and wants to be included, and just not told what to do. She is making a move, but she makes it with the others and it most likely will bind Jason and Noura to them later.

Elaine, Elizabeth, Karishma, Dean from Lorai had no confessionals, and at Vokai, Dan and Janet had no confessionals. Both Dan and Janet were seen however. Janet shined in the water portion of the challenge, and Dan was there to welcome Kellee back and also commented to tribe mates during the "Annoying Noura" moments.

With all the time that is taken up at I of the I's, and then seeing them acclimate back into their tribes, there is not much time to spend at winners camp. All we really got from the winners camp this week was Aaron's reaction to the blindside, and a few comments from others, Missy and Vince, and then Chelsea starting fire and finding an idol.

Next week, we see the promos are all about Lairo. Will Lairo lose the IC next week. Sure seems like the cut hand of Karishma could be misdirection. So, it's most likely that one of Aaron, Dean, Tom, or Vince will be going home. One of the Lairo will go the I of the I's, and Elizabeth will know that they have a chance at having an idol. Will she share this with the girls? or anyone? So, more than likely, the person that goes to I of the I's will not be the vote. Since we don't know who that is I can put 2 people especially at risk, from my POV.

First, historically in the early season of S. there is a hidden boot. So far the one most hidden is Dean. He choked in the first challenge, and we've really seen nothing from him. It could be him. No confessionals whatsoever. His starring episode could be his boot episode.

Second guess would be Vince. Sure, he has a tie to Elaine, but he svcked at the first challenge more than Dean. If he is a reason they continue to lose, he could be toast. He had a very negative comment, and handled the return to camp very poorly imho. No sensitivity, doesn't keep his emotions in check. Hmmm?

I think the girls need Aaron, and Tom has been a worker, and has a tie to Elaine as well, and has performed well in challenges.

If Vokai goes to TC we do have a new dynamic...Lauren, Janet, Kellee, Tommy, Noura, Jason seem to be together, but Kellee and Tommy may prefer the cool kids with Jack and Jamal. If this tribe goes to TC, I could see Noura getting the boot.


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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
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10-15-19, 07:56 AM (EST)
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2. "Episode 3 Confessionals"
     

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | total
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 8
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7
Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 6
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 6
Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5
Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 4
Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4
Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 3
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | 3
Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 2
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 1

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X



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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
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10-22-19, 11:19 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: S39|Island of the Idols| Ep 4 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 10-22-19 AT 11:07 PM (EST)

     

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | total
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | 9
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 8
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 8
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 7
Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6
Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 6
Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6
Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 4
Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 4
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 3
Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X


Aaron moves up to the top spot this week. He had 3 confessionals, and that is starting an arc, up from his usual 2. He had the second confessional of the show, stating that he knows how Karishma feels, he felt the same way after he was blindsided, but now he feels like he is calling the shots. Hmmm, starting to sound arrogant, which is never a good sign. Will this arc of his be his final one? He continues to note that he sees Dean and Chelsea cuddling up, that's a potential power couple and that needs to be squashed.

His second and third were in post IC, pre-tribal council drama....he wants Dean to go as he is under performing in challenges and he has Chelsea in his pocket. HIs third was he's complaining about how no one is willing to vote out Dean, they are altogether, is he the only one playing S? This all togetherness has gotten them into a 7 - 9 hole, and it's heading to disaster.

Elizabeth moves from 2 to 1 confessionals. Her lone confessional came before TC...she doesn't want to give Karishma the privilege of staying when Dean is doing alot of work around camp while Karishma sleeps....10 days ago she would have jumped to vote with the group, but when she was on I of the I's, BR told her to look before you leap, and getting rid of Dean is not good for her game.

Elaine comes out from under the radar with 2 confessionals. She played narrator this episode relaying what Aaron wanted to do: Get Dean out, he's shady, and if he's willing the cut the throat of his friend then what will he do to her down the road? She's not willing to vote Dean out and without her and Elizabeth, he won't be able to do it. Then, she has the last confessional of the show, and narrates more....Missy is something else, in a matter of 10 minutes she flipped the target onto Chelsie, in her ability to just drop names like that on a dime, it scares me. Right now it’s a big cluster, now there are all these side conversations, and they are all hustling and bustling. With these yahoos you don’t know what they are gonna do so I don’t know how it’s gonna go down. This one is going to draw the line in the sand, we’ll see how it goes. But, it’s gonna be like real gut check time.

Karishma is down 2 confessionals from last week. She got the first confessional of the show complaining how she was plan b, and she still got 3 votes, she's expendable to the tribe, so unless something drastic happens, her life in this game is about to go out, easy peasy. Her second is also negative and complaining that they lost the challenge once again, and now she's expecting it to be unanimous to send her home, it's killing her she doesn't want to go out like this, cries.

Missy has a spike from 1 to 3 confessionals. Hmmmm? Her first: Dean and Chelsea are snuggling up and that could mess up the girls alliance. So, on S you need to have more than one plan, so, me and Aaron we have alot in common. We both went to military academy’s, we both have had experience in the outside world as being African American,and we are both very competitive. so, we both willing to make a big move. So, may be we do get rid of Dean. Without Dean, it would break up this pair and Chelsea would come back to me and Elizabeth and the sorority sisters are back together.](then see Karishma sitting alone)

Her next one is the confessional of doom, right after the IC loss....Everybody thinks that Karishma is a dead fish in the water, and honestly, she is. But, If I have anything to do about it, she’s not going anywhere. I’m going to keep her, fold her up and put her in my back pocket and I am going to use her vote as I see fit. I can have two votes. If I have one, then that’s a dull day. Her final one accuses that the tribe is full of sheep that can't decide on Dean, can't decide on Karishma, well, she needs a name they can all agree on....

Noura has a huge leap from no to 4 confessionals. Not a good sign for Noura imo. Her first was volunteering to go to I of the I's, and what she said regarding her experience there. The next was when she arrived back at camp and what she spun to her tribe...next, she says that there tribe is questioning her, she has a big mouth, a big voice, and they are going to practice ahead of time, she thinks they will be fine. Then, her last, After all that my tribe told me I had to sit out so I lost my vote at the next TC, I have blown up my game this is a frigging night mare.

Jason had one confessional and it was in regard to choosing to not go to I of the I's....he wanted to go and get an idol, but his mom's side of the brain, was don't go!

Tommy went from 2 to 1 confessional...he also commented on not going to I of the I's, he wants to be the least threatening as possible.

Kellee went from 0 to 2 confessionals, first spoke of whoever goes to I of the I's will either blow up her game or they can get closer. Her next was about how Noura's lie was not a good one but she was off the hook, Noura was so into the lie she wasn't going to blow up Kellee's game.

Jamal had 2 confessionals, the same as last week. His first was about finding the HII. His next was commenting on not going to I of the I's....it would put a target on your back.

Chelsea had one confessional and it was about being in a great spot, she had the idol, she had great relationships, especially with Dean, that would get her much farther in the game. Famous last words.

Lauren up from 0 to 2 confessionals. She comments that no, she's not going to I of the I's...then, how terrible she was at calling, and if she still insisted on doing it and they lost, then she would be on the line.

Jack flies under the radar this week, as does Janet and Tom.

Dan has one confessional that is narrational about Noura presenting to them about needing to do a role in the next challenge and that she would reveal to them what the game in the challenge would be, they would all be rolling their eyes.

Dean, as the boot choice, had 2 confessionals. His first one was that Chelsea had spunk and he was drawn to her, the next was after they lost the challenge that Karishma had to see it coming, she didn't do much in challenges or around camp, so no, it wouldn't be a blindside. How ironic when Dean was as blindsided as Chelsea.

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10-22-19, 06:54 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: S39|Island of the Idols| Ep 4 Confessionals"
Thank you for this FP.

I'm considering voting Tom in CTGirl's thread but I have to ask if going from 1 confessional/ep to 0 is a sign of danger? I'd say it is but you're the expert.

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5. "RE: S39|Island of the Idols| Ep 4 Confessionals"
Ha, michel, I am certainly no expert.

But, historically I would say a spike or going under the radar are both ominous signs.

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6. "Ep 5 Confessionals"
     

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | total
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 10
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 9
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 1 | 8
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8
Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 8
Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7
Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6
Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 5
Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 5
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 1 | 4
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
F16 Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X


Kirishma takes the top spot! 4 confessionals. First one was Applebee's was her fav restaurant. 2nd: I hate my tribe for a long time now, they know I am weak in challenges so I need to flip. 3rd: Feels really good to talk about myself with the nu Vokai, I've been married for 4 and 1/2 years, I question my life choices, feels really good to talk, I am no longer Lairo, I'm moving over. 4th: Considering I am weak in challenges, I am playing up the social game.... I honestly hope that this spike in confessionals signals her final hour. Thankfully, she's at risk!

Aaron drops from 3 to 1. Elaine is doing what she does she has an incredible social game and that is the only way you will get people to really like you. I have to form real relationships , if they don’t like you why are they going to keep you around....I’m very fortunate that I get to experience S with my son, I get to see him everyday, we are going to do this! Then we see him bonding with Tommy...
A good meaty confessional from Aaron which signifies that he will be safe this week.

Elaine has two confessionals. First was about how she got lucky. 4/4 split, her alliance is with her! Second: I like the new tribe, but this is the honeymoon phase, then we will see my tribe is cutting up and having for with the volkai tribe, I don’t like it, we don’t know these people, I can’t trust them we need to stay 4 strong.

Elaine is in the safe category.

Elizabeth flies under the radar. She only went down one and is not seen making waves, I would say she's not at risk.

Missy has 2 confessionals: Yeah, Dean, it was me, I took your GF out, I feel good about that blindside, I chose to save you. Don't bite the hand that feeds you... and second: She agrees with Aaron, Lairo doesn't exist anymore, Orange is dead. Hmmmm? Missy could be at risk.

Noura has one long confessional that sums up the situation at nuLairo right before TC.
Tonight is somewhat simple, only monkey wrench is when I went to I o the I’s I lost my vote we would be 4-3. I am still analyzing the game, what would be the best for my game. Some people are thinking Karishma because she is weak,, and some people see Dean as a physical threat. Tom is a likeable guy but he’s not as much of a physical threat as I thought, So we have these 3 people to get out so we have to think, do we get the weakest out so we do better as a tribe or do we get rid of the threats now so when we go to the merge so we don’t have to deal with them then. So, I’m really just going to have to think about it in order to make the best dec for this vote.

Created suspense. Noura had a large dip from 4 to 1, she could be at risk.

Two confessionals for Tommy: First was about the first reaction to coming to the reward from Applebee's....second was that he and Aaron are like bros, I know he wants to work with me, maybe he'll vote out one of the old Lairo's.....then see a spider spinning its prey in the web. hmmm. Tommy is safe

Two confessionals for Kellee: 1st: Dean and I had a close bond, but Karishma wants to flip, we are staying V strong, these 3 will be at the mercy of the 5 vokai members; 2nd: I really like dean, but there is something about him that makes me want to work with him, which makes me very weary of him, which makes him not the one to bring to the merge. Kellee is safe.

Jason has one strategic confessional talking about strategy post swap. the dangers of the 4/4 split, almost too hard to put into words, we could have a tie at TC, and go to rocks and one of us would have to go home,

Safe.

Jamal has one: There’s not much that K could do in any challenge capacity, she is a challenge liability....if we vote out K, then we don’t have to worry about how to minimize the damage that she can cause, nothing mean about that, it’s just the way it is. Safe

Dean jumps from 2 to 3 confessionals and he is no longer at rock bottom. First one was about Detective Dean and he will find out who cut his GF. 2nd: Talks about his post swap strategy: Kellee and I had talked a bit, we have a mutual friend, my only long term GF, they went to business school together, I will try and work that angle.
3rd: I was a division 1 basketball player and I blew it. I can’t believe that that long pale red headed goof ball looking guy. To add to it, me Tom and Karishma are just at their whim. It’s up to me to make the best scenario, whh not me. Dean is safe this week, imo.

Lauren had one commenting on how she felt when Jeff said drop your buffs...nervous. Starting fro sq one.

Jack had one the three of them, Karishma is not doing herself any favors being weak in challenges and he's ready for a W for orange.

Janet spoke of Tom he's old school she appreciates it, but he's loyal and will probably jump at merge.

Dan had one about dooms day scenario with a 4/4 split.

I think the most at risk are:

Karishma, Missy, Noura.


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7. "Ep 6 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-19 AT 10:13 PM (EST)

     

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | total
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 6 | 16
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | * | 12
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 11
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11
Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9
Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | * | 8
Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | * | 8
Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 8
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 1 | * | 4

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
F16 Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X
F15 Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X

Elaine has a big spike related to the confidence she has in her tribe sticking together, then going to I of the I's, and then being the boot target. Karishma, Tommy, Kellee, and Janet fall under the radar. Noura calls out Jamal and Jack as targets, while Jamal and Jack have an enlightening and real encounter. Aaron declares that it's not Elaine in the power position but him. Hmmmm? Dan and Elizabeth narrate.

Most in trouble: Jamal, Elaine, Karishma? ETA: Should have had Jack in this group as well as he jumped from 1 to 3 confessionals. Ugh.


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8. "Ep 7 Confessionals"
     

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | total
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 14
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | * | 1 | 13
Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13
Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | * | 5 | 13
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 12
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 11
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | * | 1 | 9
Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9X
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 1 | * | 2 | 6
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 5

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
F16 Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X
F15 Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F14 Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9X

Kellee has a huge spike from 0 to 5. She's at risk. She's made some enemies this week throwing in with the enemy and I think Jamal and Janet should be on to her. She made a big move....is it too early? Definitely will put a target on her back. Her confessionals were all about what she's doing, meaty. Her first confessional makes a case against Jamal: So, I take the magnesium and Jamal starts basically telling me what to do, and basically takes it from me and I am like....you suck. I have no patience with incompetence especially when I have no food and no sleep, it just got to me and I was like OMG, you are not good at this, let someone else try, someone that knows what they are doing. He says things in a way that is my way or the high way. And, whether it’s doing stuff around camp or strategies, I think he’s just a tough person to work with. Her second reacts to Janet returning, notes they are in a common club and only they know what is on I of the I's, and her story was almost the same as Janet's. A relief the secret remains a secret.

Her third: Lairo sucks. It’s really bad because now we have to go to tribal. I got this idol, it’s only good for one more tribal but if old Vokai is going to stay strong than I don’t think that I actually need it. And it would kind of suck to let that idol go to waste.

Kellee is making a big move when she doesn't really need to. Is she throwing away loyalty from many for loyalty of one?

Fourth: I have this idol from the I of the I’s and it’s really only good for one more tribal that I go to and that tribal is tonight. Right now the vote is Dean but we have this connection of his ex-GF, who’s a mutual friend and I really like Dean. I want to work with him and ideally I don’t let this idol go to waste. OMG, I just had a moment of inspiration! Okay! Moment of Inspiration. I think I could give Dean the idol. The question is can I trust Dean enough with this idol and he actually write down the name of who I want to go home? And, essentially in my mind there are two options. Either Jack or Jamal. Jack....he’s extremely good with people, he’s empathetic, super fun and I know that I can trust him. It’s not really that smart wgen he’s so connected to everyone in the game. Jamal, with him I have a harder time ocnnecting and I trust him less. And, Jamal I think does not want to go to tnd with me. So, I am trying to think of creative ways to use this without anyone knowing that I had the idol. Because if anyone knows that I had the idol they will know that I was lying about the I of the I’s and lying to them. I would give dean the idol before tribal. The downside risk is if Dean writes down my name I’m gonna go home and I go down as the biggest sucker in the history of S. However, if I convince Noura that if Dean has an idol, she’s going home and get Noura to write down Jack or Jamal’s name and I ‘m alot safer. Uhhh, that would be so brilliant. I’m trying to take a big risk and at the same time risk mitigate.

And, her final was the last prior to TC...When you give an idol to someone and make a really big move with someone it will automatically bind you and at least for a little bit he is going to be loyal to me. I think with every big move and this is a really big move, there are alot of things that could go wrong. Nothing is foolproof inthis game but if this plan goes off in the way that I hope it goes off. It will really shift the course of this game. It will set off an entire course of dominoes....

It's up to us to figure out which way those dominoes will fall.

Many had 2 confessionals.
Lauren: First she reacts to the Jason vote: Unfortunately Tommy, Dan and I were on the outside and Missy and I had built a real connection so I felt like I was lied to. It’s hard to put faith and trust into people when they tell you one thing and do another. So I have to do what’s best for my game. Next, She talks about the close bond with Tommy...Bonding is 95% of this game but Dan does some pretty uncomfortable things. But just to be clear, it’s me, Tommy, and Dan on the bottom, one of us is going to have to go home. But, my number one right now is Tommy. He’s like a brother to me. Dan is unfortunately the person that is going to have to be the person with the target painted on his back... I have to wonder if Dan, who seems a bit perceptive, caught on to what Tommy and Lauren were up to and how will that affect their alliance moving forward?

Noura had two confessionals. First complains about Jamal...I go... ‘I think there is a problem, there is only one scoop in the bowl’. And, Jamal, he looks at me and says it’s because you have a heaping portion into that shell of yours. And, I am like you’re a complete A$$hole. I hate Jamal I am so over him. I am over his face and his oppressive remarks. At what point do we say let’s break away and cut his throat off. Her next is just a comment on Janet flashing her front to show she doesn't have an idol.

Janet has two. First one is about Noura suggesting a girls alliance...Noura is all about a girls alliance, she’s all rah rah rah, but I am not doing that. The plan is Dean because he’s pretty boy, he’s all about himself, and Karishma will be a loyal vote. She’s been ostracized by her old tribe. So it’s a matter of keeping Noura’s head space with us. This tells us that Janet is firmly with Karishma, who is firmly with she and Jamal. Noura on the fringe. Her next was all about I of the I's, she was afraid it would paint a target on her back, but then it was a big moment for her, could be a turning point.

Jamal had two. His first was about he knew what the little boat arriving was for and that he was confident that Janet would do the right thing for the tribe and for their alliance. And, we saw that she did. Jamal and Janet are in sync.

His second: So the plan is to unanimously vote out Dean tonight at Tribal. He’s hard to read, he’s a little swarmy so I think he just has people on edge, so I think it’s best to just get rid of that. I bring my hidden II to every single tribal but this vote coming up is probably the safest I have felt coming into Tribal. What we are all feeling is this is the vote just before going into the merge. This vote is going to solidify us to move forward to the merge. Noura’s a handful. But, I’m not going to make an emotional vote in this game and I don’t see how it makes sense to anyone on this tribe to deviate from this plan.

Oh how wrong he was. He was schooled.Clearly this vote DID NOT solidify them to move forward. It most likely fractured Kellee and at least Dean from he and Janet. He was played.

Dean had two. First: Tonight I think it’s either me or Noura, but the guys have made it awfully comfortable for me. Unless they have really good poker faces, I feel okay. They know Noura, they know she’s friggin insane. I think she’s in for a big blindside tonight unless I am the one being laughed at. So, this is about Dean wanting to trust the guys and not liking Noura. But, after this vote, I have to wonder if he gains some loyalty to Noura? We know that Dean will be locked to Kellee, but will he be all in with Noura moving forward? Dean's second was reactionary that he didn't know they were coming for him.

Elaine had one, the first one of the episode. She recants that at Tribal she blocked his vote and sent Jason home and now the old Vokai are shaking in their boots because they have the numbers.

Aaron has another emphasizing what Elaine just said. By taking Jason out of the game they put them on their heels and now they will come begging back because guess who's in control? We are.

Karishma: Narrational. It was a terrible night, wet, Jamal took the lead at the fire making.

Tommy: He tells us what he's going to do now that they are in a "bad, bad spot". Lie, cheat and steal. Whatever it takes and whatever he has to do to make Dan look like a very sneaky player.

Missy is on to Lauren and Tommy. I see what’s going on. Lauren and Tommy are trying to get rid of Dan, but, Lauren and Tommy are tight. Super tight. Lauren’s connection to Tommy is dangerous. So, I am thinking take Tommy away from Lauren and she’ll have no where else to go. I don’t want Lauren and Tommy to become the super pair that is unstoppable. That’s catastrophic. Missy is a very perceptive player and very in tune with feelings. She always seems to say the right thing. She's a very savvy player, but do others notice. Makes her a threat. We heard Lauren tell us that when someone tells you one thing and does another....

Jack had one. He commented on how fervent they have been with Dean telling him he's not going home, Noura is.

Dan flies under the radar.

I see a conflict between Kellee and Jamal and with the merge, this should be interesting. I think both are at risk.

Janet had an uptick from 0 to 2, could put her at slight risk. She had a nice shining moment at I of the I's. Could be a send off.

Dan drops under the radar?

Aaron, Elizabeth, and Missy ALL drop down one confessional and as strong members bonded to each other one of them could seriously be our next boot.


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11-14-19, 09:35 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Ep 7 Confessionals"
Many times the confessionals really don't help us predict the boot. But sometimes they are spot on. This past week was one of those weeks. The confessionals predicted it all. I think they also predict the next wave of drama with the Missy quote noted from above, I see what’s going on. Lauren and Tommy are trying to get rid of Dan, but, Lauren and Tommy are tight. Super tight. Lauren’s connection to Tommy is dangerous. So, I am thinking take Tommy away from Lauren and she’ll have no where else to go. I don’t want Lauren and Tommy to become the super pair that is unstoppable. That’s catastrophic. Missy is a very perceptive player and very in tune with feelings. She always seems to say the right thing. She's a very savvy player, but do others notice. Makes her a threat.

The NTOS promo confirms this, we see Elaine go to Tommy and tell him that she wants to vote you, then we see Missy. From the confessional last week, we see what motivates her.

With the dip in confessionals from Missy, Aaron, Elizabeth last week, I think puts them all in danger when coupled with the events of the episode.

Janet was at slight risk from confessionals and she was a boot decoy.

Jamal and Kellee were both at risk as indicated by confessionals.

This week they were spot on, and I think can help to unfold the story moving into the next episode. After that, who knows?

Just an observation that sometimes they are a good tool to help predict events, and sometimes not so much.


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11-19-19, 10:09 AM (EST)
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10. "Ep 8 Confessionals"
     

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8a| total
Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | * | 5 | 8 | 21X
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | * | 17
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 3 | 15
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | * | 1 | 1 | 14
Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 14
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | * | 1 | 4 | 13
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 8
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 7

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
F16 Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X
F15 Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F14 Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9X
F15 Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | * | 5 | 8 | 21X

Kellee took a huge leap up in her boot episode. She made a big move last week and it clearly had severe consequences. Her first: Noura just immediately fesses up, it just made me so mad, but all of what Noura is saying is true. So, I’m lying to my what’s supposed to be my two closest allies in this game. Like I am in a pickle. Second, was about her finding the idol.

She shut down Tommy with his suggestion of joining up with Vokai 2.0. Her third confessional in response: Tommy explained this Vokai 2.0 plan, it’s so dumb because why would I take these great relationships and switch over to this group of 9 that clearly only has the 4 old Lairo? This I found amusing. Why would she vote out one of her most loyal allies if they are such a "great relationship" and what does she perceive happened to these "great relationships" after they all know it was her that saved Dean and voted out Jack? Tommy spear-headed the Kellee boot choice and gathered enough troops.

Her 4th confessional was all about bonding with Missy over the inappropriate Dan. She goes on to cry and we see production reinforce, it's not okay, and come to them!

Her 5th: As much as I feel disgusted by him and disrespected by him, I’m not going to make a game decision based on those feelings. Look, I am upset about the way that he has been behaving a nd that is the fair thing to do. This game is not fair, I’m not playing this game to be fair I am playing this game to win. So, Dan makes sense as a decoy vote but Missy is theone that we really got to get out. So it was Kellee's plan to make Dan the decoy vote based on his inappropriateness, while really targeting Missy. Her 6th tells us why Missy: Out of everyone in this game, Missy is the biggest threat in this game. She is smart! She is thinking the way I am thinking. I want to work with her but it’s just a little too late in the game for that. And, unfortunately, this is the final nail in her coffin.

Missy was told of the plan by Lauren.

Kellee's 7th was about the switched vote from Jamal to vote Dan instead of Missy. She's more and more nervous but luckily she has an idol, and will go find the second idol. Her 8th tells us about finding the second idol. Her famous last words: I can’t have 2 idols in my pocket and get voted out I would be the biggest sucker. I definitely didn’t even think about playing it for myself tonight, but the way that this is going I might have to play it.

Jamal told us her big move would have consequences. I think perhaps Kellee was so distracted by the events with Dan that she really didn't think straight. For a smart girl these were bad choices, to make a big move because you could and save someone you really don't know for someone that has shown loyalty to you. Why wouldn't Dean throw her under the bus, she showed Dean that she was capable of throwing many allies under the bus.

Tommy had 4 confessionals and jumped up from 1 - 4. Definitely his story arc is rising. Tommy has planned with the Vokai 2.0 to bring in Kellee and Janet. His first confessional was about his position in the middle, could go with original Vokai, or Vokai 2.0, his new friends, but he will do what's best for him. Could this be the beginning of a winning story?

His second confessional after Kellee shuts him down: I don’t like the way this is looking. Every idea I pitch is shut down. They were so adamant, they were telling me what to do. My alliance isn’t going to be straight up Vokai. My alliance isn’t going to be straight up Lairo. My alliance is going to best serve me. His next was rationale to book Kellee: Kellee is dangerous. When it was Missy that was supposed to go home, they sat on the beach for over 2 hours. Look, I love her, but she is so smart, she went to Harvard and she’s down played that so much that no one views her as a threat.

His last: Jamal is now trying to gather up the troops to vote Dan. I knew it was going to be tricky, but Dan? At this point, we can go either way. Half the people are let's vote out Dan and the other half of these people are let’s get rid of Kellee. So, no matter what happens tonight, I’m going to make a lot of people mad. But damn, it’s nice to have a little power.

Elizabeth has a spike for her with moving up 1 to 3. Her plan is to stay with the numbers at all costs. First: Coming back to camp was very overwhelming, there are so many diff’t scenairos running through peoples heads. Vokai 2.0 plan was to stay 7 strong and bring in Janet and Kellee, cause we know as Lairo alone, we are down on the numbers. So, for us to have a back up alliance where we have the numbers? That’s absolutely what I want to move forward with.

Her second: The merge is about numbers so right now my job is to do whatever it takes to get the numbers. The original vokai are not the biggest fan of Dan, so If I can play up that card in whatever way possible, I’ll do it.

Her third: Janet approached me about voting Dan out, and I know for a fact that she’s lying to my face. We know that they are going to vote for Missy. This Dan talk is smoke and mirrors. It’s Janet’s plan to pull the wool over my eyes and I’m like yeah Janet, you got it girl. I know that people are uncomfortable, saying Oh, he likes to cuddle, he’s touchy feely, but honestly, I’ve felt safe this entire time and if I had felt uncomfortable, I would’ve said, please stop. So, I am writing down Kellee’s name and I hope that 7 other people are as well.

Missy had 2 confessionals, the first reacts to hearing that Kellee wants to get her out....Lauren just said, Hey, Kellee and her motley crew are coming for you. Do I trust Lauren and Tommy to save me? If Kellee thinks that she is going to get me out the very first merge vote, than I think that warrants me to get her out. I can’t go out like a punk.

Missy after IC: Damn,I needed to win that one. So, going into TC and knowing that Kelleee is gunning for me. It sucks. Tonight we are going after Kellee but the plan doesn’t work unless Tommy and Lauren are telling the truth.

Dean had 2. He's a chump...Every tribal I have to play the card like I had saved myself, no hard feelings it’s a game, but everyone was absolutely in shock. See Janet, the Godmother was upset her son went home, Jamal was upset because Jack went home and he wasted his idol. But, Kellee saved my life when she gave me her idol and I do feel like I owe alot to her. His second comments that Tommy and Lauren want to take out Kellee, that puts him in a tough spot and he doesn't know if he can do it.

Janet had two as well. Initially my take on Dan was that he was just an old school guy that never thought about what he was doing. You know, about being physical, you know a hand around a shoulder, stuff I would do. You know I am just a very physical person. Yet, at the same time, I can not ignore these girls. On the off chance that Dan is totally innocent, he’s going to be devastated. It’s a tricky thing to get 100% proof, you are never going to get it. Her second was that Jamal came to tell her that the new vote was for Dan and she was a little bit relieved. It was a moral decision she was making and needed to know that these girls were going to be okay. I love Janet!

Dan had 2 confessionals: First one was about wanting to reconnect with Janet and Kellee at the merge, he was close with them, but Jamal, why would he want to work with him? His second, I can’t fathom why Janet would target me. I never targeted Janet, she was someone that I thought I could go deep with and protect so what’s she’s doing is both stupid and reprehensible to me.

Aaron had one that comments on the merge, all the relationships up to now may mean squat, it's game on.

Karishma's was about she knows what, "gather your things" means...merge. She's most excited because she didn't have any food rewards for the first 20 days, she's starving and FEAST is here.

Jamal had one commenting on Kellee's move. It’s like really convoluted and I think there is some truth to come out, Kellee looks like she is ...I’m over whelmed with emotion and I’m stressing out but something about it doesn’t add up. I think Kellee, savvy player that she is, was trying to play an underground game that came to the surface because she tried to do it with Noura. You never try to play an underground game with Noura.

Noura has one about the vote: Tonight I am voting for Dan. What really made it simple for me is that Dan has pushed the boundaries with alot of woman, he’s been snuggling at night and being flirtacious. This is not okay, we’re not going to wait to get to the end and have some talk about his behavior. We’re going to do this now.

Lauren also had one. My biggest thing with Tommy saying Kellee is that I’ve always felt that her and I were on the same page. But, she’s proving to be a very dangerous player in this game. So, can I trust her as much as I thought I could?

We saw Kellee get voted out. Who's next?

     

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8a| 8b| total
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | * | * | 17
Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17X
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | * | 1 | 4 | 1 | 14
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | * | 12
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 9

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
F16 Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X
F15 Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F14 Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9X
F13 Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | * | 5 | 8 | 21X
F12 Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17X

Janet was the star of the show which makes me sad. She had a spike from 2 - 4 which does put cross hairs on her. She has the first confessional: When I saw the votes coming down at TC for Kellee, I was like holy crap. What happened? And, My mind was racing because this was a vote not based on game but on standing up for what was right. The information that I was given from all the young girls, they said that they felt very uncomfortable in Dan’s presence, so I felt betrayed on a moral level because I was willing to jeopardize my game because these girls were in such a panic as I understood.

Her second: I feel anything that is related to sexual uncomfortability has no place, no where in a joking environment, in a game environment in anything, it’s its own entity. It’s a very very powerful thing. Lives can be destroyed, lives can be destroyed if you’re abused, lives can be destroyed if you are falsely accused. Lives are going to be destroyed and it’s too powerful to be played with. And, the defensiveness of all the other girls disgusts me. They are either lying to themselves and I can have compassion for that, or the girls let it fly that Dan was a problem and I’m so upset about that because he wasn’t my initial vote and I changed it to support them so they could feel better at camp. That’s a damn shame.

Her third was about waking early on the beach before the crack of dawn and seeing Aaron and Missy with a shovel going to look for the idol. She follows them, loses them and finds an idol! It will save her. She got it by not giving up!

Her final was the last one before TC: I’m having doubts about playing my idol because Tommy is telling me I’m okay and to vote for Jamal. I have to put my trust into people who were angry with me (see Elaine, Aaron then Missy). I have now gone from this wonderful, loved person to this scurge of the Earth, so, I’m bringing my idol, it’s in my pocket, but I don’t know anymore, there’s a surprise at every tribal council.

Jamal had 3 confessionals in his boot episode. His first was about finding the hanging note and how excited he was, wants to know what is in store for him going off to I of the I's, then he reacts to seeing Boston Rob and Sandra who created the blueprint on how to play this game...His second was after he came back to the tribe and had to execute his parchment advantage to Dean. It won't work unless he can sell it. His final: I’m very nervous about TC tonight because me, Janet, and Karishma are on the bottom. And, if the tribe is suspicious of me going to I of the I’s, they just might take the easy way out tonight and vote me. This is the first tribal that I really feel like I am in danger of going home. I must say here that I am reminded when Jamal first went to TC and did not bring his belongings, he wasn't worried that it was his time to be in danger. His time came.

Dan had 2 confessionals. I’ve been in business, had employees, I’ve had clients, I’ve had authority for 20 something years and have never had even the slightest hint at it ever in my life. So, it’s depressing that someone would feel it authentically even for just one moment. That’s not who I am, but I can’t be in someone else’s heart and if they don’t express it to you enough you behave the way you think you are behaving because it seems right to you. And, So I was on a tribe of 13 people, 8 of which were women now 7 of which are women, who luckily have not experienced anything with me but comfort, and strength and honesty and loyalty and decency and that vote proved they want to keep playing this game with me. (see a snake)

While it seemed that Tommy drove the Kellee boot, it seems that Aaron could be driving the Jamal boot? Aaron's one confessional: Whether it’s true or not, we don’t know? But now every single person on this tribe knows that Dean’s got an advantage by Jamal doing that. It wasn’t an olive branch, that was a death sentence. So, Jamal is clearly playing this game, Jamal is a threat. That’s why he’s gotta go.

Elizabeth gives her point of view: My view point is that I have never felt uncomfortable and I know what people are talking about but it’s more a joking way and maybe that’s where we are on the wrong part of it because we shouldn’t be joking about that. But, nobody has come to me with legitimate life concerns. It was little baby snippets here and there that snow balled into something way bigger than it should’ve been. I appreciate Janet because she was playing the motherly figure that she is, but for me personally I never felt unsafe. It was never serious to me, it was always game play to me and my vote was based on the game of Survivor and the fact that I was going with the numbers, and that name happened to be Kellee.

Karishma is narrational: So, me and Jamal were left out of the votes and now we find ourselves in the minority. So, we are discussing how we can get ourselves out of this position. Suddenly I see something hanging from a tree and I want to grab it myself, but Jamal goes and grabs it before me and it’s a note.

Missy: Missy for me is the smart one and she is amazing at diplomacy after the fact. Here is her confessional: As of now Jamal, Janet and Karishma are targets and each name benefits someone else’s game differently. So the question is who do you get out, when, where, how, what time?

Tommy's one confessional: Narrational: We started talking about the next vote, is it going to Karishma, Janet, or Jamal? So, we decided to split the vote between Karishma, because this whole time she’s been on the bottom, and Jamal because he went to I of the I’s and might have an idol.

Dean talks about how his "man", Jamal painted a big ole target on his back.

Lauren, like Elizabeth, gives her point of view: Voting Dan out for the reasons they want to vote him out, I‘m just not comfortable with. And, I am not going to say one way or another who is comfortable with what or what happened to whom, all I know is my story and what Dan and I experience. For me it wasn’t an issue, and this is a game at the end of the day. I hope Kellee doesn’t take it too personal, so that’s what it is for me.

Noura and Elaine are flying under the radar and with all of the events going on, I feel like this puts them as the safest.

Tommy has a drop, but at this point I don't think he's the number one target. Missy and Elizabeth have drops and they are in conflict with Janet who has a great spike. These 3 are in danger.

Aaron does not appear to be in danger....hidden boot or will he win immunity again?

Dan is in the midst of his biggest story arc, may it please be his final story arc.

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Sheldor 3865 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-19, 05:14 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Ep 8 Confessionals"
Interesting that since the Merge it has been players at or near the Top of the Confessional Count that have been voted out
Episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8a| 8b| total
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | * | * | 17
Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17X
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16

Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 15
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 15
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | * | 1 | 4 | 1 | 14
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | * | 12
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 9

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
F16 Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X
F15 Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F14 Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9X
F13 Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | * | 5 | 8 | 21X
F12 Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17X


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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
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12-08-19, 10:59 AM (EST)
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12. "Ep 9 Confessionals ~ Two for the Price of one"
 

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8a| 8b| 9 | total
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 18
Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18X
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 18
Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17X
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | * | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 14
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 13
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
F16 Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X
F15 Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F14 Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9X
F13 Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | * | 5 | 8 | 21X
F12 Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17X
F11 Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18X
F10 Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17X

A few things that I noted in this episode. Janet has the starring role as one who has been in trouble. Her first confessional was about never giving up, and she also had the last confessional of the show in regard to she thought she was in trouble but now she's not feeling so badly, but with all the blindsides, you never know.

Second star was Karishma, with her falling out with Missy, then lining up with Tommy then back with Missy.

I found it very interesting that Tommy's lone confessional was all about how Missy was using Karishma, didn't care about her as a person, just wanted to use her, and that he wanted to play with her as a person. But, in the next few episodes we saw that he was quick to agree to vote her out with every one. Pot....meet kettle. Hypocrite.

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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-19, 09:04 AM (EST)
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13. "Episode 10 Confessionals | Bring on the Bacon"
 

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8a| 8b| 9 | 10| total
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 22
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 2 | 20
Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19X
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | * | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 |19
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 18
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 17
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 16
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 15
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
F16 Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X
F15 Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F14 Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9X
F13 Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | * | 5 | 8 | 21X
F12 Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17X
F11 Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18X
F10 Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17X
F9 Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19X

It is pretty easy to see that the dominant players toward end game are: Karishma (who will be voted out next), Tommy, Dean, and Lauren. Does this spell trouble for Janet, Noura, and Elaine? Here is the transcript for the confessionals:

Episode 10

Lauren: Tonights TC proved you can’t be too comfortable in this game...it was important to eliminate the threat but I am super nervous because I don’t know what is going on at the other TC, Missy is playing super hard...and I am afraid that he girls are going to align against Tommy and Tommy is my number one. And then I see Tommy’s big lanky body climbing up and then a rush of calm just rushed over me and now it’s more of a question, where do we go from here.
Karishma: Tonight I just want to do a happy dance because my top two targets went home. Aaron and Missy, both of them were gunning for me. Gone in one swoop, and I didn’t have to use my idol. Still have it here in my trusty little arm pit, so I could not be happier. The game has opened completely wide for me and now I finally have some options
Eliz: I feel a little stranded right now because my closest allies are gone. They offered me a lot of protection and now I don’t have that , but now with them being gone I am on my own and I am going to do what I have to do to stay here.
Tommy: Last night I went from being the most nervous to the happiest I have ever been in the game. Getting Missy out was the huge move that I can put on the top of my resume.
Dean: K is the ultimate goat I have wanted her out for a long long tie. Without Missy and Aaron as the two big threats it’s only a matter of time before me, Tommy, and Eliz are targeted. Right now its like Attention: Goat number one reporting for duty, karishma, Attention: Goat number 2 reporting for duty, Noura. And then they all went up assembling the goat army to get one of these big threats, Dean, Eliz, Tommy out....it’s not happening.
Tommy: Dean’s theory about goats is something I def prescribe to, but Eliz is an Olympic athlete and also, Eliz wrote my name down. So Eliz is going to be on my radar and she might have to go next.
K: My initial thought is I want to go, I haven’t been there yet, I want to go, but before I could even say a word, Lauren chimes in, I want to go. The people that think they run this tribe have already spoken up to who’s going. But if I were to speak up that I don’t agree it would just put a bigger target on my back. I have to take a step back and keep my mouth shut.

On I of the I’s
Lauren: I of the I’s is def. a part of the game that I am missy, so excited to experience....OMG....OMG....OMG, Sandra! she hugs....you guys are the reason people play this game....she says she a very strong social player....

If anyone knows the tribe it is me, I am such a people person, odds are not that great to pick 1 out of nine....worst case scenario, I could get voted out....

Dean: Jamal gave me this thing...it’s a legacy advantage to myself. Is it fake or is it real? I don’t know. The tribe doesn’t know. But, I think it’s real. It says this serves as an immunity idol. This can be played with 6 people left or 9 people left. We’re at nine right now, so while everybody was snoozing, I went ahead and got my little Picasso on and made myself a little fake legacy thing. The idea is this. Keep this little real one and use my fake one at TC. Does it look exactly alike? No, it’s risky, but if I can get by with that at this first TC, this one will still be left in my pocket. And, I will be potentially safe at six if it is real...I’m excited to play a little bit and be a little schemey. I feel like I have been under the radar but this is my chance to get a little schemy and shake things up a bit. Get a little shifty.

Lauren arrives back....

Lauren: When I come back from I of the I’s I believe there is work to be done. I need to convince my tribe to basically eat at the next challenge and I need to convince the 2 people I bet on that the need to compete, cause I need my 2 horses to compete....the lesson that I learned from Rob and Sandra is situational awareness which is perfect for me, I study people, I feel confident in who is going to sit out and eat breakfast and who is going to compete. But the only person I plan on being completely hones with here is Tommy. He’s my wingman in this game.
Tommy: In this game you want to do whatever you can to win, but right now I am Lauren’s wing man and I am going to do whatever I can to make sure Lauren gets that idol. So, I want to get as many people I can to choose to eat. So, what are we going to talk about all day long today? Pancakes, syrup, bacon, coffee. The more I talk about it and the more Lauren talks about it the less people to compete against Noura and Elizabeth.
Janet: I really feel like I always have to play, but it’s gonna be hard to smell those pancakes and bacon...
Dean: Bacon and Pancakes and syrup? I’m excited.
Karishma: Mimosa is like my favorite drink in the whole world....if I go to a bar and order any drink, I order a mimosa, that’s how much I love mimosas.
Elaine: I ‘m still up in the air, I don’t want to get voted out just for eating bacon...
Lauren: It’s important that as many people as possible sit out this challenge but more importantly I need to mae sure that Noura and Elizabeth compete...Noura is a vegatarian she’s not gonna want to sit down and eat breakfast, and of course Eliz. she lost her most important allies and I know she’s going to fight tooth and nail to win. People do seem to be buying it. This is a huge deal. This is gonna change my gae one way or another. And, I am ready for my game to be accelerated. Bring on the bacon and bring on the IC, let’s do this!

The IC

Janet: I decided to eat and it was probably one of the scariest things I had to do, have to trust my alliance to not throw me to the wolves. I was surprised at Elizabeth, but now it’s time for her to go because she is a physical threat. Time for her to go.

Tommy: right now it is either Elizabeth, the olympic athlete, or Karishma, the easy vote. At the challenge K lasted 45 seconds, you can get out at any time, but Elizabeth she can go forever. Why would I vote out someone I can beat at the end or you can take a shot at Elizabeth while you can.
Elaine: If I had my way I would vote Karishma out, she’s the Karishma with nine lives, she’s almost been voted out about 5 times. But, if my alliance decides it’s Elizabeth I can’t shoot myself in the foot to save her because it’s too late for that. I don’t want to damage my own game to keep her in.
Elizabeth: so at today’s challenge I blew it. My name has been on the chopping block for the last 3 days, but today at the immunity challenge, I blew it. Why would they not take out a threat like me? I don’t have an idol, I don’t have an IN, and I’m just praying to the S gods that Karishma does not have an idol tonight.
Noura: We get back to the camp and Karishma is like, OHHHHH, she’s on the hammock and I tell her to drink more water....I literally scoop up her bag and I just take it to the beach and I tell E. to come with me. And we go through it, there is a crumpled up note and 2 shells, enough for me to see that she doesn’t have it...it’s enough for my own gut feeling that she doesn’t have it.
dAn: E is on the outs, but if something crazy happens we are splitting the votes between E and K, but K thinks its between E and Janet. Karishma, she is like oh, okay, and she immediately gets up to talk to E, but then Lauren comes to talk with me and she watches Karishma as she talks to E.
Lauren: Karishma does not have allies in this game. She’s a free agent and those people in this game are dangerous because they can go either way. I’m very observant, I’m looking at body language, I’m looking at eye contact,
Dan: Lauren sees her lips say, Dan is after you, so it’s just, just maddening. Karishma is doing everything wrong you are supposed to do. That was it for me. I feel like we can’t allow K to go any further. But, it might be too late to complicate a vote at this point and switch it, especially at this point.
Dean: I agree with Dan about Karishma. In my mind it makes complete sense. I was under a little stress seeing the goat army assemble, but if there are people on board to disassemble it before it gets rolling, then it’s music to my ears and I am hoping that Karishma is the vote and she is going home tonight.
Karishma: I was absolutely talking about Dan, but Dan has no right to tell me I can’t talk about Elizabeth or that I need babysitting! That pisses me off, however, I would hate to lose E. but at this point in time I don’t know if me voting differently will make a difference. I have the II sitting in my pocket and nobody nows about it, NOW here’s the issue that I have....playing it correctly or the possibility of being voted out with an idol in my pocket.


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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-19, 09:16 AM (EST)
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14. "Episode 11 Confessionals | A Simple Plan"
LAST EDITED ON 12-11-19 AT 08:53 PM (EST)

 

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8a| 8b| 9 | 10| 11 |total
Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 25X
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 23
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | * | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 22
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 19
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 20
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 18
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 3 | 18
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
F16 Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X
F15 Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F14 Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9X
F13 Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | * | 5 | 8 | 21X
F12 Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17X
F11 Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18X
F10 Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17X
F9 Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19X
F8 Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 25X

Coming back to add a few notes. Lauren seems to be the true mastermind of the season. When we had the loved ones, she whispered to her husband as they were parting, "I'm going to win! I'm going to win!" I hope she does. She is clearly the strategist and the most perceptive of the bunch. Tommy is her ride or die, but he's playing strictly defensively. If he hears you mention his name, you are dead to him. He's a serious hypocrite in regards to Karishma as well. He seems to narrate still.

Elaine, she does seem to have some insight, but she does't follow through. She's not flying under the radar like she would like to, and others are aware of her social gifts.

Dean. Ugh. He's the biggest goat of them all, yet he doesn't see it. He's made A LOT of enemies in this season, Kelley, Noura, and so many more. Tommy perceives him as having saved him, so perhaps that loyalty could save him? This episode, Dean was the voice of reason, however, in regard to the Crazy Noura persona.

Noura. She's a dead girl walking as she can't figure out what on earth to do.

Dan. He's in the majority alliance, he could make final 4. He narrated this episode as well.

Janet: Had one confessional related to winning the family reward, and seeing John, her rock.

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Sheldor 3865 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-19, 02:25 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Episode 11 Confessionals | A Simple Plan"
Thanks FlowerPower!

The trend has definitely been Old Lairo with the most (or nearly the most) Confessionals. That would put Elaine with 23 in the most danger of getting voted out which is what I thought already.

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Flowerpower1 3975 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-19, 11:23 AM (EST)
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16. "Ep 12, Penultimate Confessionals"
 

Episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8a| 8b| 9 | 10| 11| 12| total
Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 27X
Tommy~ V | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | * | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 27
Janet~ V | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 21
Dean~ L | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22
Lauren~ V | * | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20
Noura~ V | * | 1 | 2 | * | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 19
Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14X

F20 Ronny~ L | * | 1 | 1X
F19 Molly~ V | * | 3 | 1 | 4X
F18 Vince~ L | * | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7X
F17 Chelsea~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4X
F16 Tom~ L | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 6X
F15 Jason~ V | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F14 Jack~ V | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9X
F13 Kellee~ V | * | 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | * | 5 | 8 | 21X
F12 Jamal~ V | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 17X
F11 Aaron~ L | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18X
F10 Missy~ L | * | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 17X
F9 Elizabeth~ L | 1 | 5 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 19X
F8 Karishma~ L | * | 2 | * | 4 | 2 | 4 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 25X
F7 Elaine~ L | * | 6 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 27X
F6 Dan~ V | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14X

I have to say there were a few confessionals the next AM, after the Dan removal. Janet had one about Dan being removed from the game for real world problems, we have to pick up the game and move beyond, and then Tommy had one. Tommy's was about playing the game after any twist or turn, the deck has been re-scrambled and we have to pick up the cards and move forward.

First of all, let's look at the patterns. Some one has an arc that is BIG and is starting. Tommy.

Dean had two confessionals but one was extremely long as it followed him from I of the I's and included his comments on his return. He has an idol nullifier, and he won the IC.

Elaine had the kiss of death confessional after the IC....and she's gone. One thing to note is that Dean is the last Lorai standing. If he makes it to F3, will his old tribe mates vote for him? Or, is he too hated?

For me, it's easy to see that Dean will nullify Janet's idol at F5, sending her home. This will leave Tommy, Dean, Lauren, Noura.

If there is one more I of the I's, Tommy is the only one that hasn't gone. Is he likely to win an advantage to the final IC? Probably. If Tommy wins the IC, and can choose who to take to F3, then my thought is that he will choose Noura. I think anyone there would choose Noura, fwiw.

Leaving Dean and Lauren to make fire.

When I think back to the editing throughout the season, I don't see it as Dean's story or Noura's. For me, it comes down to Tommy or Lauren. Of the two, I saw Lauren as the strategist, the cool head prevailing. I saw Tommy as reactive and vindictive, but surely every one likes him. It's a toss up.

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