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"S35 | Confessionals"
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Flowerpower1 2278 desperate attention whore postings
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10-01-17, 10:04 AM (EST)
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"S35 | Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 10-01-17 AT 10:13 AM (EST)

This season, Jiffy started his mantra and continued all the way to the opening statement: 39 days ~ 18 people ~ 1 Survivor. So, there will be no division of pre-intro and post-intro confessionals. This premier was also only an hour long, as are most shows.

episode | 1 | total
Alan hero| 5 | 5
Ryan hust| 5 | 5
Ashley hero| 3 | 3
Mike heal| 3$| 3
Ali hust| 2 | 2
Ben hero| 2 | 2
Chrissie hero| 2 | 2
Joe heal| 2$| 2
JP hero| 1 | 1
Desi heal| 1 | 1
Devon hust| 1 | 1
Jessica heal| 1 | 1
Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
Lauren hust| 1 | 1
Patrick hust| 1 | 1
Roark heal| 1 | 1
Cole heal| * | *
Simone hust| * | *

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

After Jiffy proclaimed, 39 days, 18 people, 1 Survivor, he then introduced the tribes, and then started by picking out people. Are these people that he picked significant? In the immortal words of Rudy, I dunno....But, they exemplified the theme of the season. Ben the hero, Cole the healer wilderness guide, and Mike, the healer sex doctor, then Ali the hustler personal assistant.

So: peeps chosen by Jiffy to talk about what they do and how it validates the tribe they are on:
Ben, Cole, Mike, Ali

There were 2 people that got confessionals during the explanation of the tribes, and they were Chrissie, who had the first confessional of the show, Dr. Mike, then Ryan. Note Mike was called out, then had a confessional about it, and what's more interesting is that first confessional of his, was a MILLION $$ quote!

As per usual, we will start with the biggest counts working downward. There were two stars of the show and they were Ryan, as he found the secret advantage, and Alan, who was the drama on the hero tribe.

Alan gives a great confessional, and has priceless facial expressions. We haven't seen eyes like those since Eliza played in Vanuatu. His first confessional came when we visited the hero tribe on their beach, and Alan notices the flirtatious banter between Ashley and JP, and he notices them going everywhere together.

His first confessional is an admission that he's playing fast and furious...I played in the NFL for 9 years and after you play for a while you can see whoís a tempo setter. And, just now I got a sense of how people are playing the game. And, Iím definitely going to play the game, which for me is a full out sprint out of the gate. See him talk to Ben...

Later, he spies on Ashley and JP...

Iíve been watching those 2 for a while and I honestly think Ashley and JP are working together so I want to make them believe that Iíll work with them, but this power couple, or whatever it is they got going on, is OVER. He says this with emphasis! The next confessional is more of the same, but takes place the next morning, whereas we are watching JP and Ashley at night...I know there is something going on between JP and Ashley. Thereís red flags all over the place between those two. I need to let everybody know those two are stronger together right now than we all are as individuals.

Next confessional reveals his plan to place targets on their backs: I donít know if they had an idol but I didnít actually see anything, I just threw it out there. I know I look like the crazy man, but now I got some fishing going on. I just put a target on their back if it worked the way itís supposed to work.

Next confessional takes place post IC...Ashley and JP think I am in the core four with them, but I donít trust Ashley and JP further than I could throw them. See JP and Ashley walk off. So, whatever they trying to do, Iím blowing it up.

Alan is playing fast and furious, and he's definitely blowing it up. It appears that Ben is with him, but will Ashley and JP be able to get past his wild accusations? If he doesn't calm down, he could become the target very quickly, or will he be the one they want to take to the end? Time will tell.

Ryan's confessionals all centered around him finding the idol, with the exception of his first. His first confessional was while they were on the boat and Jiffy was singling out people to talk about what they do. It followed Ali talking about what she did as a personal assistant. His confessional summed up what he thought of his tribe...Just looking at our group, I hope they are strong and macho, see Devon, hopefully they know how to build a shelter, they know how to crack a coconut, see Patrick. Iím just going to defer to them. I am a 125 pounds soaking wet. I donít drink and I donít have a girlfriend....come on, who wants to align with me? We hear Ryan's strategy right from the start, he wants to align with a strong physical player, one that will complement him, as he lacks strong physical prowess, one that can build a shelter and provide for him.

The next clip just noted, "OMG, I look over and see a small package labeled secret advantage!"

Third confessional was him gushing about finding the secret advantage...I found an advantage on the boat. Nobody knows about it. Itís in my pants, Iím dying to know what it is. For the first time someoneís dying to get in my pants. I kinda just wait for the perfect moment to get away. Itís just going to the jungle by myself, Iím super excited! Iíve never had a secret advantage my entire life, Iím a hustler, hustlers donít get advantages, and the hustler got an advantage!

Fourth: This confessional is broken up by the group asking Devon what he does...the first part: These first impressions are crucial and I really like having Devon in this group because heís different than me. It continues after the scene where Devon tells the group "I teach kids how to surf...I donít make a lot but it pays my rent." See Ryan shake his head yes. (I think that heís channeling his Stephan Fishbach vibes when he spies JT, the good ole country boy).

Ryan's fourth confessional continues after the scene: he seems like he is someone who is looking for someone that is more strategic...more strategically sound. So, I am waiting for the perfect moment when everybody's cleared out of camp, so I can build a connection. Then, we see the scene where he shows him the advantage and tells him he will play it for him and they bond.

Finally, his last confessional is what to do with the secret advantage after his tribe does not lose the challenge: I found this super immunity idol. Itís only good for the first tribal, so I now have to give it to a member of that losing tribe. I can give this to someone that is in the minority, see Chrissie, and save them tonight and they could take out some one who maybe a threat, see Ashley and then Alan, and maybe change the game.

Ryan is a schooled player, it seems he is making wise choices, with a Fishbach move to align with Devon, and then later with singling out the weak link in the hero tribe with giving his advantage to Chrissie. Something I am sure he will clue her into later. Perhaps he's not only building a connection with Devon, but also with Chrissie and her associates. WELL PLAYED. Ryan capitalized on how to use the secret advantage, and he gets kudos for even finding it in the first place. He's a player to watch for me.

Two people had 3 confessionals: Ashley and Mike. Ashley was drawn into the cross hairs by flirting and sticking to JP. Her first confessional was about being in the hero camp...The qualities of being a hero are going to help in the game of S because the whole idea of being a hero is that you are putting others ahead of yourself, as she says this we see Chrissie and Katrina in the picture working. ....which makes for a really strong tribe. (Then cut to a pic of Alan working.)
But, game on, the hero cape falls off and automatically you are thinking alliances, see Ashley and JP walk off together. ...conversations need to happen, (as scene cuts to Alan, who is watching them go off together.) So, it will definitely start to get interesting.
We see that her thoughts and actions speak loudly and clearly. I am sure that the others noted it as well, not just Alan.

Second confessional is reactive to Alan and the drop trousers fiasco...Alan is starting to loose his mind. He had JP strip to check his pants for an idol. So, my mind is literally blown right now. HIs paranoia is like so bad, I mean where is this coming from right now? Cause, I trusted him and I thought he trusted me, but itís snap, just like that, trust is out the window. Moving forward with him seems like it could be a liability down the road....see JP by the fire, then Alan by the fire alone.

Finally, the last confessional creates doubt upon what the "core 4" will do...Alan created a spectacle out of nothing... (see the 2 moms get up and go get firewood),
In less than 12 hours , (see ashley laying next to JP,) everything went from nice, weíre solid 4 to there (see Katrinaís back walking away....then a quick glimpse of Chrissie) really is no trust.
With her stating this, we question whether Alan, and perhaps Ben, will vote with them, or against them...

Dr. Mike had 3 confessionals. He was chosen to tell his profession to the group when the healers were talked about by Jiffy, and he got the second confessional of the show as well, Winning Survivor is like the biggest dream of my life. My wife thinks I am crazy for doing this and my kids are worried I am going to die. But! I am going to rise to the occasion and win! $$ QUOTE - ding, ding, ding.

Second confessional: My son told me to look for the idol. Heís 10 years old and he watches Survivor. If my 10 year old son knows to look for the idol, I should go looking for it. See MIke looking at the map. And, so should everybody else. My biggest fear is to be voted out first but this is a crazy game. But, I did not come out here for an adventure. I am out here for a million dollars, see him run to the shore...and be the best survivor player ever. ($$ quote.) And, so I am willing to do what it takes to win this game. See him picking up drift wood... He's determined and he knows the game. But, immediately after this confessional Joe is seen telling Desi and Roark that when Mike comes back he'll ask him to draw a map to the idol because he knows where it is....interesting how the heroes and the healers have those that are paranoid and bullish about it, Alan and Joe, we are seeing the same themes play out. But, I had more empathy and sympathy for Mike, than I did for Ashley and JP. editing?

Mike's last confessional comes after Joe's confrontation with him...I donít trust Joe for one second. Heís told me that heís had man to man talks with me to essentially bully me into telling him that I went looking for the immunity idol. I mean like, who is this guy? It continues: But, at the same time it puts me at risk. Perception is 90% of reality. Right? Unfortunately, and with that you donít want to be having to fight perception. Mike is a smart guy, he gets it and will contemplate his moves more carefully.

Ali, Ben, Chrissie and Joe all had 2 confessionals. Ali was the first chosen by Jiffy to talk about what she did as a personal assistant, hustler. First confessional: Ali had this confessional after the red tribe lost the first RC...Judging from that horrible competition I was pretty pissed. I am hoping that our work ethic and strength alone can push us together and get it done. But, at this point I am very nervous. (See Ali pointing the way as the others paddle the boat!) I think that Ali is strong, competent, and a leader and will struggle to keep it in to hear her POV, and assessments of others. Makes me think she will be around for a while.

Her second confessional: My priorities from day one are to make sure that I connect with people and Patrick....seems like heís meshing well with the group from since the very beginning. See him trying to eat the bug. So, I kinda want to see where his head's at...then see Patrick yelp, oh, I forgot I had a crab in my pants....see Ali looking back over her shoulder. Continues: If we donít lose we really donít have to worry about an alliance but the way we looked in the first challenge, we should probably start talking now.

Ben seemed like a voice of reason on the Heroes tribe. Right now weíre looking at a core four and thatís me, Alan, Ashley and JP. Weíre all younger we're fit and then we got the 2 moms, see the moms aligning. Weíve named the 2 moms the mom squad. Winning is the most important thing right now for this tribe. When it comes down to it, weíve got each others back. Then see the two moms coming back...It ends on our boot, Katrina.

His second: If everyone had just calmed down and talked it out, weíd be fine. But, here we are, day 3, and weíve all just blown up. Continues: Yup, at TC tonight thereís two ways that Alan and I can go...we can go with the mom squad and go straight with Ashley, (see Ashley chop a coconut), or we can go with JP and Ashley and get Chrissie or Katrina out. Iím a little worried about JP and Ashley having something going on. But, as a tribe we have to stay strong, see Alan, to win, but the two older women, see them, are probably the weakest link in our tribe. Whether or not you go with strength, see Alan, or loyalty, in the long run itís about Alan and I. Who do we trust the most. This confessional is revealing as he confides that he's solidly with Alan. So, who is the real power couple now?

Chrissie was very interesting because she had the FIRST confessional of the show and the LAST confessional of the show. She is going to be a formidable opponent, I think. The first confessional of the show was after Jiffy had called on Ben to tell what he did and who he was, we heard a confessional from Chrissie: I definitely feel I belong on the Heroes tribe. I had a career, I had my kids, then I came back and got an awesome career. But, I need to really down play that because I donít want people to think she already makes a lot of money so we donít want her to win a lot of money. We hear a bit of her strategic approach to being on the heroes tribe. Later, I have to add, in the TC, Jiffy called on her and she flat out said, "No, I don't feel like I deserve to be on the heroes tribe..." We see her follow through on her strategy, a positive sign, imo.

Her second confessional was the last one before TC: I was getting ready for tribal and looked in my bag. I see a package. I have no idea what it is. She pulls out the idol, OMG! Reads: Some one has secretly chosen you to have immense power early in the game. OMG! This is an immunity super idol. This idol can be played after the votes have been read but it can only be used at tonights TC. Wow! How lucky did I get, she puts it on. I got the super immunity idol and it feels incredible. I think the decision of what I do with the super idol is extremely impt tonight. Especially since half the tribe is potentially on the chopping block. See JP, then Katrina. Katrina, me, Ashley, Alan, we donít know. Clearly, If itís me on the block, Iím using it to save myself. I just want to see what plays out and let the discussion at TC dictate what happens and for whom. Smart.

Joe. First confessional: I wanted to be in a tribe that I could easily manipulate. When you are a healer you have a big heart and when you have a big heart you donít really think with your mind, you think with your heart. I am a healer because my main job is rehabilitation. But, Iím not a probation officer when I am out here. I came out here to win and I am probably more strategic then everyone all together. So, they are just all my victims at this point. Hmmmm? Playing like Tony, like Sarah? $$Quote, over confident and cocky?

Second confessional: Mike is definitely a player and I am a tad bit concerned that heís running around and trying to find the idol. So, I think he went and looked for the idol and by now heís probably got more than one. Hear Desi defend Mike, "he's getting firewood". Joe continues: I have a great lie detector and I am thinking Mike is not a trustworthy guy. he a bully, is he a villain? I think so. Is he a RussHell? Time will tell...

Now we are left with the remaining castmates with 1 confessional sans Cole, who had none. But, we did hear Cole talking about being glad they were on a season with 3 tribes so if they come in second, they still don't lose. We heard Cole being spoken about from Jessica as well, and we heard Jiffy call on him at the beginning of the show, so he definitely had a presence.

JP: Alan is a crazy guy. He just all of a sudden gets this crazy look in his eyes just his drama and everything that he causes is, I think, not worth his strength. Just a loose canon like that kinda rocks the ship.

Desi: Iím fortunate to be a part of the healers tribe, first and foremost we can communicate. And, as long as we do that in camp life, everything will run smoothly.

Devon: Ryan tells me about this special immunity idol. He said that heíd be willing to use the idol for me. Ryan and I have the same ideas the same plans, the chemistry is perfect. Devon is the pawn to Ryan's king/queen.

Jessica: Cole is Tarzan. I like him alot. Heís trying not to be the tough guy but he is. I mean, heís ripped. He has beautiful tanned skin, blonde hair, blue eyes, I think I have fallen in love! Giggle.

Katrina: I donít feel totally safe, I donít have a good alliance on the team. I knew I needed to get people together, we need four people to vote for somebody...Right now I think I have a plan with Chrissie, Alan, and Ben. I have to put faith in 3 people that I am not sure totally have my back. Hopefully it works.

Lauren: Today we didnít win the challenge, but at the same time, letís not give up. See Patrick and Devon building the shelter...Being hustlers we are very hard workers and thatís just like kick it in gear and this is what we need to do the rest of this game. See Ryan. Cause really, if we play as a team we will be fine. If not, weíre gonna be screwed.

Patrick: Ali, sheís a very smart girl and we are vining really well but on an island where we can trust no one, I feel like I could trust her but this is Survivor, so, I feel good but Iím not certain.

Roark: As we row in we see the biggest fire that any of us have ever seen. And, it sets us up on the right foot....Healers are definitely a team based group in how we approach our careers, in terms of how we approach our lives and I think thatís really a distinct difference between us and the other two.

Well, a lot to process in a one hour premier. I would say the strongest players right out of the gate, or at least the one's to watch are Ryan, Chrissie, Ben, Dr. Mike, Roark, and Ali.

I would guess that we have had a confessional from our next boot. Which would make Cole safe.

I will make some guesses regarding my thoughts and risk status for next week. We see Cole and Jessica as a couple, and we know that that will attract notice from the others. Cole is strong and they need strength, so I think Jessica will be more at risk of the two. I think the wild banshee is Patrick, and I think that is misdirection, Patrick had one smart confessional, I think he is safe, and I think Ali, is a player to watch, she's safe. Ryan is safe and in good position, and he's with Devon, also safe. Roark was sound in conf. and we heard her commenting on the strategy of the IC puzzle, and she also was lifted to light the torch and win the fire making kit = safe. Ben + Chrissie = both safe, Alan safe in association...I put him at slight risk because of his drama last week? JP and Ashley were the couple in question, JP is valued for strength, so if either of these go, I predict Ashley is more at risk. She had a spike in confessionals, while JP had 1.

Putting Mike as safe, because I think he's one of the chosen ones by editing to watch. He had several money quotes, he's an astute player, and he's the hero to Joe's villain. I think Dr. Mike, will prevail. We also saw Desi stick up for Mike. 2 v 1 right there.

Desi's only confessional was fluff, she's expendable, at this point. We did hear her defend Mike to Joe. If Joe thinks Mike has an idol, perhaps he targets someone that could be with him?

Lauren: Slight risk if Red goes to TC, she's the older woman, good worker however. Fluff first confessional, expendable?

Joe for me had 2 confessionals, we got to see him, and his comments on building the tribe up when they landed, then in his confessionals admitting that he's a manipulator then going for the jugular with Dr. Mike. A good villain. But, did he come on too strong too quickly? I dunno?

Simone: Not seen at all, UTR boot?

Safe: Cole, Ryan, Patrick, Roark, Devon, JP, Chrissie, Ben, Alan, Ali, Mike

Slight risk: Alan, Desi, Lauren

At risk: Ashley, Joe, Jessica, Simone

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: S35 | Confessionals kingfish 10-01-17 1
 RE: S35 | Confessionals Sheldor 10-03-17 2
 Confessionals Episode 2 Flowerpower1 10-06-17 3
   RE: Confessionals Episode 2 Sheldor 10-06-17 4
 Confessionals Episode 3 Flowerpower1 10-14-17 5
   RE: Confessionals Episode 3 Sheldor 10-16-17 6
       RE: Confessionals Episode 3 Flowerpower1 10-17-17 7
 Confessionals Episode 4 Flowerpower1 10-24-17 8
 Ep 5 Confessionals Flowerpower1 10-31-17 9
 Episode 6 Confessionals Flowerpower1 11-06-17 10
   RE: Episode 6 Confessionals michel2 11-06-17 11
   RE: Episode 6 Confessionals Sheldor 11-08-17 12
       RE: Episode 6 Confessionals Flowerpower1 11-08-17 13
           RE: Episode 6 Confessionals michel2 11-08-17 14
           RE: Episode 6 Confessionals Sheldor 11-10-17 15
 Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the merge Flowerpower1 11-14-17 16
   RE: Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the m... Sheldor 11-15-17 17
       RE: Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the m... michel2 11-15-17 18
           RE: Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the m... Sheldor 11-15-17 19
               RE: Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the m... Flowerpower1 11-16-17 20
               RE: Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the m... michel2 11-16-17 21
 Confessionals Episode 8 Flowerpower1 11-21-17 22
   RE: Confessionals Episode 8 michel2 11-21-17 23
       RE: Confessionals Episode 8 Sheldor 11-22-17 24
 Confessionals Episode 9 Flowerpower1 11-28-17 25
   RE: Confessionals Episode 9 Sheldor 11-29-17 26
       RE: Confessionals Episode 9 Sheldor 11-30-17 27
 Confessionals Episode10 & 11 Flowerpower1 12-06-17 28
   RE: Confessionals Episode10 & 11 CTgirl 12-06-17 29
 Episode 12 Confessionals.... Flowerpower1 12-10-17 30
   RE: Episode 12 Confessionals.... kingfish 12-10-17 31
       RE: Episode 12 Confessionals.... Flowerpower1 12-10-17 32
           RE: Episode 12 Confessionals.... Sheldor 12-12-17 33
 Episode 13 Confessionals... Flowerpower1 12-17-17 34

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kingfish 20071 desperate attention whore postings
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10-01-17, 11:33 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: S35 | Confessionals"
Dam impressive, FP.
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Sheldor 1714 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-17, 02:45 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: S35 | Confessionals"
THANKS FlowerPower for the Confessional Counts and ALL that analysis of the Confessional! Wow!

Minor correction that will save you one character.
Her name is spelled Chrissy not Chrissie

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Flowerpower1 2278 desperate attention whore postings
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10-06-17, 09:16 AM (EST)
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3. "Confessionals Episode 2"

episode | 1 | 2 | total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 8
Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 6
Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 5
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 4
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 4
Chrissie hero| 2 | 2 | 4
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 4
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 3
Mike heal| 3$| * | 3
Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3
Cole heal| * | 2 | 2
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 2
JP hero| 1 | 1 | 2
Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
Desi heal| 1 | * | 1
Jessica heal| 1 | * | 1
Roark heal| 1 | * | 1

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

I first want to distinguish how I count confessionals. If someone has a confessional and it is interrupted by a scene of them in regard to what they are talking about, then pick up with the same confessional, I count that as one. If someone has a confessional and it is broken up by someone elses confessional, or too much time passes and events change, I count that as 2 confessionals.

This week Ryan remains a star of the show and Ali is with him, they both had 3 confessionals. Many of them spoke of what they bring to the Survivor table. Ryan's first confessional was in regard to feeling good about the Hustler tribe, owning the Hustler mantra, he busts his bum, and he feels in a good spot socially....he and Devon are really tight, he's connected with everyone except Simone, who is weird.

His next one was in regard to Chrissy and giving her the idol, and this confessional was at the start of the IC when he sees who was voted off for the first time. Chrissy doesn't know that it was he that gave her the idol, maybe it saved her and she used it, but he hopes she sticks around so he can use that connection down the road. FORESHADOWING

Finally, he got the last confessional of the show when he weighs the benefits of going with trust vs predictability...Initially, I kind of wanted Simone out, but, itís alot of uncertainty with Patrick. Itís like you got a newborn want to really like it, but, and take care of it, but itís really, really annoying cause you gotta watch it every single second. Heís really good around camp and heís great in challenges as well, but heís unpredictable, and predictability is one of the best things I can have in an alliance. Thatís why I like Devon so much, heís loyal. Cut to see Devon. But, itís not like I am even dragging along a lemming, itís Simone. She scares me, sheís really smart. I want to be aligned with predictable people who are really loyal and want to listen to me. And, tonight is about who can we trust more moving forward and who is going to be the most loyal. And, itís really scary but you put your trust in people in this game but in a 6 person tribe there is no place to hide.

Ali also had 3 confessionals: First one was Ali talking about her strengths and using it in the game....This game is all about handling different personalities and I think that is something that I am good at, and I donít know if every one is thinking that, Oh, Simoneís just dizzy and I donít want to deal with that but I see Simoneís value at this time ....I mean being here with a whole bunch of random people, itís a big step for her. Um, I could definitely use that for my advantage, kind of pull Simone onto my side..... Then we see Ali giving advice to Simone, don't doubt yourself, if you don't hype yourself up, who will...etc. She continues, I could see her being really loyal for a long time, you know I could definitely mold her, you know, I am here to win! ($$$ Quote?) So, I feel like Simone, I could use as putty in my hands.

Her next confessional re: Patrick. Patrickís name is starting to come up and itís so early and I am like how am I supposed to work with him if Patrick is getting on peopleís nerves? (see Patrick goofing around), and heís nuts....With Patrick, I feel like I am babysitting a lot. I donít want that to be my job, I am here to play for me. Iím not here to play for anybody else....I think I am definitely going to have to think about where we stand and where this relationship is because if people decide to vote Patrick out, I donít think I need him in this game anymore.

Her final confessional: Going into tonight, I definitely have options. I know Simone will listen to me and I know that she will follow me, but me and Pat have been together since day 1 and when he looks at me I can tell that he trusts me more than anyone in this game. My only concern is that people are not certain about Patrick for the long haul, I think everybody knows heís so unpredictable, I think they never know what heís going to do.

Ali has definite social skills. She's empathetic, she's able to get along with everyone on her tribe, she builds trust. She has used it to her advantage and she does indeed have "options". She's a player to watch, imo. And, she also had a $$ quote this episode!

Seven people had 2 confessionals. We'll start with Chrissy. Chrissy got the first confessional of the show, again. She first states how heated and angry TC got and that it was great for her. She started out on the bottom, but all the little cracks came out...she didn't use the super idol, but she's happy because now she can use it down the road if she's ever on the chopping block, as a decoy. It has no power but it still has power. The camera fades on her as she is illuminated by the fire, she's a smart cookie.

Her next confessional was stellar, and it showed her working it. It was dispersed through her going from tribe member to tribe member feeling them out and assessing each. It went like this: I needed to get through that first Tribal, and I got through it and now I really do believe that I can go far in this game. I just need to figure out who I can go with because I do believe you need a strong partner to get to the end of the game with. She starts with JP, and we see her talking to JP...So, what I do as an actuary is analyze data and figure out what is my next best move, given every thing that I know. And, hereís waht I know. JP can be helpful in challenges but truthfully, heís not smart.

Next she moves to Ashley...see them talking....Ashley is a very good player but I donít entirely trust Ashley, I am not convinced there is not a power couple.

Then she is with Alan...Then, after Alan had his blow up, Iím concerned about having a twosome with Alan....At this point the data shows that Ben is a better option for me. Ben has a lot of social charm and I can think several steps ahead strategically so together we complement each other very well.

Then, we see her woo Ben. And the deal is done. We hear Chrissy's plan and we see her execute it to perfection. Chrissy is a star player and one to watch.

Ben also has 2 confessionals: Man, this group is like old paint. Itís cracked and fractured everywhere. I am not sure who I can trust. The core 4 is gone. The perception might still be there in some peopleís heads, actually, no itís not. Itís done, the whole thing is shot. Now, itís every man for himself. Cuts away with him seen shaking his head. Next, we hear his thoughts...Alan and I were aligned from the gitgo, but Alan, after he blew up at Tribal the other night, I just donít know if I can work with him? Chrissy is a smart woman and she has a good head on her shoulders, and thatís going to help me get further in the game....At this point, Chrissy and I are in the drivers seat and what ever we decide to do is what is going to happen.

Ben is in a good position here now as well as he is the voice of reason and a real asset to his tribe. He is the diplomat and appears to have the best social game on the Heroes.

Cole and Joe had 2 confessionals from the Healer tribe. Joe: His first is in regard to liking Mike so much better, but he's still public enemy number 1, but his accusations have backfired a bit cause he's not able to spend as much time looking for the idol as he would like, yet still can find some time. Next confessional: Showing Cole the clue was like a major risk, but I needed help, like I donít, honestly think I would have figured it out on my my mind, if anything pops out of that ground, I am grabbing it! I want it and I Ďm going to find it today.....ĒGot it!Ē ...I have the idol, I feel good! I feel good! Now I know no one else has it, but I Ďm concerned because the fact that Cole knows I have the idl could backfire. Itís all about power and knowledge and he (see Coleís back as he walks away), He has too much knowledge. I donít think heís going to use it against me but at the same time, if he does, I might have to put a target on his back.

Joe first targeted Mike, now he's may target Cole. Hmmmm?

Cole's first confessional was all about how smitten he is with Jessica...supercute, could see myself with her...his next one was related to finding the idol with Joe...Joe brought me in on the fact that thereís a clue in the back of the woods that I havenít seen. I canít believe it! I am beside myself like this is the greatest day so far and this is why I am here to play survivor, itís to find the idol and have the power, but I am kind of suspicious that the idol is on the raft, itís just been out fishing all day, so I am like, dude, I need to see this clue.....Dude, through wilderness therapy and rock climbing, itís just second nature for me to help people and help them accomplish their goals and that skill set is giving me power in this game. Since Joe would have probably never found that by himself, he probably sees me as a really good resource now....
Cole applying his real life skills to Survivor is helping him in his assessment, while we know that it's putting a target on his back per Joe's confessionals. Cole is not a smart Survivor player. He's getting into a relationship with a girl that all can see, and he led another person straight to the idol, where as he could have kept his mouth shut and gotten it for himself....he's strong in challenges, but....

Next we go to the Hustler tribe where Patrick, Lauren, and Simone all had 2 confessionals. We will start with Lauren. First one: Patrickís kind of getting on my nerves. He wants to be the highlight....he wants to be in the spotlight. (See Patrick clowning around, Australian accent, you want to get some shrimp on the barbie with me, hear Australian music)....Heís just all around the place, itís like, Sit STILL...(see him bouncing around)....and, heís just too loud for me, his volume is at a 10, and he needs to be at a volume 2. (See Patrick carrying on and laughing.) He is a big kid. Heís a 25 year old boy, you can look him dead in the face and say, ĎPatrick, do not touch thatí, and, he will look at you and touch it. You know when itís like, Really? I just cannot come out and say, Ďshut the hell up!í, just because I am older. I would think that they would want to stick together. Itís very tough for me, I mean, I am not a social butterfly...Being a commercial fisherman, you work alone. You know, I donít want to be excluded, so I am trying to build a relationship with Ali. Try to get on the same page with her...

Her second: Patrick is unpredictable, I donít trust him. And, he doesnít follow directions and he could hurt us. See Patrick eating or trying to eat a stick and spitting it out. You know, even though heís strong. Strong is not always what you need, you know Simone is not great at challenges, but, you know, Simone at least listens.

Lauren is different in her tribe just as the 2 moms were in the Hero tribe. Her assessments are spot on, but she is in a difficult spot. She confides how her lack of social skills is something difficult for her in the midst of a social game. Her physicality does not compare to Patrick's. She's fighting for Simone, as well as herself. Note that she seeks Ali out, as did Patrick, and Ryan in this episode.

Next Patrick: First he speaks about being afraid of crabs, and he's a lot bigger. He's a wild banshee and it's his strategy to keep everyone having fun cause when you do that you don't have to worry about being the bullseye. He tells us his strategy. This is validated at the moment when we see the whole tribe laughing at Patrick.

His second: Tonight at TC, Simone will be the one going home. I havenít seen her in any way helping us as a tribe. You know it seems as if every body else is on the same page as me, the boys are already together and Aliís on my side, so we gotta majority here so I think this tribe is definitely better without Simone.

Simone spoke about this being difficult for her, she's a city girl, she was proud of her greatest accomplishment of relieving herself in the ocean, and it's hot out here, there's no air conditioning....ugh. Her last confessional: As far as challenges, I am not the strongest one here so I think that I could be an easy vote, so what I think I need to do is to start shaping the narrative of this tribe. Clearly Patrick is getting on Laurenís nerves and thatís going to play to my advantage. See the girls walking alone....Itís very easy for people to have opinions about Patrick so itís very easy to shape the narrative around him.

Alan, Ashley, JP, and Devon all had 1 confessional. Alan started with the second confessional of the show, TC was intense, I mean I was not expecting this to start flying like that. But, at the end of the day, I think I got what I wanted in terms of people really thinking of Ashley and JP as a power couple. Like, so my plan worked essentially, Like whether I am right or whether I am wrong, I think I created some kind of suspicion. A lot of times suspicion gets you the kind of results that you want. Alan has a confessional that tells us he thinks he was successful with the tribe and placed doubt on the power couple, Ashley and JP. However, we heard from every member of the tribe and they all confirmed that his drama only alienated him. Trouble for Alan.

Ashley told us: The whole spectacle that Alan created tonight at TC sort of shows how off the hinges he really is. Iím not going to sit back and tell my whole tribe that I am in a power duo with JP, and we are hiding idols. I think he went from a really safe place with the core 4 and now, heís put a huge target on his back.

Then JP gives us his strategy and his thoughts...In the firehouse itís all about getting things done, taking care of business, so I am out fishing, trying to get some food on the table, or, go one step at a time and go from there....Ben notices his know Iíve never been super into drama, iím not the confrontational type or anything like that so If I can get some fish, some lobster and make sure everyoneís got a full belly, everyone will be happy and taken care of....The other night at TC, Ashley and I got called out as the power couple, that label sucks. I donít see us as a power couple at all! We are not dating, we are not hooking up, we are not doing any of that kind of stuff....I mean if you are a power couple you might as well be hooking up and being a power couple, know what I mean? Might as well take advantage of everything! So, Ash and Iís connection, I think itís more on the back burner right now, see Ashley with Chrissy cleaning their teeth....but, at the fire house, thatís kind of my position, stay calm, stay patient. I may not be the guy that is out there talking strategy with everybody but I know that I need to clean my rep up and with time that will straighten things out.

Devon had one confessional that was in the post IC loss slot. He saw Simone as the weakest tribe member, she proved tonight that she can't do puzzles, she's gotta go.

Mike, Jessica, Desi, and Roark all fly under the radar. Interesting that all 4 with no confessionals are on the Healers tribe. Was it because their tribe won, and that the only drama over there was the finding of the idol?

One thing I noticed about this episode was that a lot of the confessionals were about the skills that they had in their everyday life and how they perceived that those skills would help them in Survivor. They provided windows into their individual strategies. Some we can predict will serve them well...Chrissy, Ali, Ryan. Some of those skill sets may place targets on their backs and perhaps will not be so successful...Cole, Lauren, and certainly Simone.

I think the folks that flew under the radar at Healers will all be safe....there could be a surprise boot, but they stayed away from any drama or conflict, they were seen getting along. If Healers go to TC, I see Cole and Joe at the heart of the conflict...perhaps Jessica could be slightly at risk for her association with Cole.

Here are my assessments for the week:

Safe: Ryan, Ali, Ben, Chrissy, Roark, Desi, Dr. Mike, Devon, JP (safe as he's a challenge strength)

Sight risk: Jessica, Cole, Ashley, Alan

At risk: Lauren, Patrick, Joe

Patrick and Lauren's arcs are rising together, they are in conflict. One of them should be the boot, imo. Cole's rose up 2 from 0 in the first episode, but I really think when the tribe decides to get rid of one or the other it won't be Cole first? I see Joe more at risk, because he's already alienated Dr. Mike, and I think the girls see it too. While Dr. Mike fell totally under the radar, I think it's more of a positive this week. We see the conflict that he had last week dissipate as Joe sets his sites on a new adversary, Cole.

Alan had the most movement from 5 to 1. And, we saw that he is not assessing his drama accurately. If the heroes go to TC, he could be in trouble, but I don't see them going to TC...

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10-06-17, 12:54 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Confessionals Episode 2"
FlowerPower *WOW* That's an amazing post! I'll need to read it carefully a few times because last week you concluded:

Simone: Not seen at all, UTR boot?

Safe: Cole, Ryan, Patrick, Roark, Devon, JP, Chrissie, Ben, Alan, Ali, Mike

Slight risk: Alan, Desi, Lauren

At risk: Ashley, Joe, Jessica, Simone

You called it!
Though you did have Alan as both Safe and Slight risk.

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10-14-17, 11:01 AM (EST)
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5. "Confessionals Episode 3"
LAST EDITED ON 10-14-17 AT 06:08 PM (EST)

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 12
Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 8
Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 7
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 7
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 6
Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 5
Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 5
Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 4
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 4
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 3
JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | 2
Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 2
Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 2

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

This week the stars of the show were Ryan, Lauren, and Jessica. Jessica moves from 0 - 4 confessionals, a large jump. I will start with Ryan, who also has the most confessionals of anyone this season.

His first confessional was regarding all of the clothes that Simone left, it was narrational. His second was his opinion on comparing the 2 girls. Ali was in their age range, Lauren didn't have anything going on with anyone so she'd probably be the next one to go. The confessional ended with Patrick waving a machete and chopping in front of Ryan. His next was commenting on Patrick looking for the idol, like Survivor 101, you don't search for it in front of everyone because it doesn't help to build relationships and it makes everyone paranoid. Finally, he notes: Devon and I we are in position where we can kind of dictate the vote. The options now are vote off Lauren, or vote off Pat. This is obviously a big decision and I donít exactly know what to do yet... We see he and Devon discussing it and Ryan tells him he wants Pat and it will be boys to the merge...Devon is the one that disagreed. And we know how the show ended, it ended with Devon's preference going out. I have to wonder, who is steering the "strategic one" of the partnership?

I feel as though Ryan is becoming the narrator of the tribe, he's commenting on the events and his observations.

Lauren got 4 confessionals and jumped from 2 - 4 as the decoy boot. It was her turn to hustle even more than last week. Her first confessional notes that even though she didn't get any votes, except from Simone, she still feels on the outs. She notes that she's the single mom, and they are the high school kids, she feels like the damn teacher. She continues with her plan noting that at TC Patrick slipped up and referred that he didn't trust everybody...could have been Simone, or others. Now she's going to take that opportunity to target Patrick. Then, we see her questioning Patrick in front of them all..."when you say that in front of all of us it does put us un at ease because ....all of them or most of them?"

Her second was at the critical spot of post challenge; We just lost the challenge but Patrick didnít want to stop, heís like a one man show ...Iíve been playing center field for 25 years, I can hit a catcher in the forehead. And, I think everybody is pretty much over Patrick for they way he performed today and I want to make sure that Patrick is going home. Her 3rd was more of the same complaint about Patrick...he was a one man team, I would much rather lose as a team than one person lose for everybody, redheads don't lie very well, all he could do is grin, she knows he's writing her name down, then she added that when she fishes she doesn't sit there and wait for the same fish to come by, she tries different things and never throws her hands in the air with out trying her hardest.

Her last confessional was also the last confessional before TC...I can be a hot head but at the same time, I know when to turn it on and I know when to turn it off. I feel like iíve done every thing that I can do, but obviously Iím a hustler for a reason. See them leaving for TC. So, if it is me going home tonight, I can promise you I am not going to go home without a fight...

Lauren perceives where she is on the pecking order well and she had a plan and executed it well. She's a good player, but is dismissed. If she makes it to the final merge she could last a long while, perhaps?

Jessica also had 4 confessionals, going from UTR to 4. A lot. She is narrating what she sees at camp. Mostly about how she feels about Cole, fishing - 100% bonding for them, she's a virgin, her face is red, blah, blah......then delight at him confiding in her, t's power in the game, she gave him a kiss for it, that's big! Then, she tells us how he "word vomits" the info to Roark and then to Desi, and she's pissed, should have waited till after the challenge and then WE decide what to do. Finally, she's pissed, he lost a lot of power with me, last thing they want is for Joe to find out, would come after most likely Cole, she's not sure that they should blindside Joe.

Jessica narrated all of the events that happened at Healer beach.

Ali and Patrick had 3 confessionals. Ali's first is comparing Patrick and Lauren. Patrick was blurting out words at TC, doesn't know what's going on with him, but he's good at competitions & he works hard...easier to tolerate than someone that doesn't bring much...(see Lauren). Patrick doesn't understand the social game, but she needs him so she needs him not to rub people the wrong way.

Her second was that she needs Patrick so she will help him mesh better with the group. Then we see her do just that. Don't look for the idol in front of others, and don't dwell on the past, move to the future....

Her last confessional: Patrick being the strong guy that he is was supposed to be the strong one in the challenge but again, when it came down to it, we didnít win. (see Patrick bashing a stick against the tree and he hurts his finger). Just is kind of like a repetition for us, so I have to figure out if Patrick being around is really an advantage any more?

Patrick's confessionals were I have idol fever, keep moving, my moving company in Auburn, Alabama, I work harder than all my tribe members looking for the idol. Next was that Ali has my back and I have hers. Then, finally, he admits that he should have let someone sub in, Lauren's not happy with him, but, he's got the guys on his side and he's comfortable knowing Lauren's going home....

Ben and Cole had 2 confessionals each. Ben's first confessional was another one that was broken up with scenes of the events. It begins: So, 7 days into the heroes tribe you could say that Chrissy and I are driving the train. But, moving forward, Chrissy and I need to figure out who is going to be the next target.
Ashley is a good hard worker and sheís fun (see Ashley collecting wood on the beach), so the better choice is for JP or Alan. (See Alan with a machete dragging palm fronds toward the shelter). Alan and I were aligned from day one, but Alanís a hot head and loose canon and JP, heís walking around here like he donít know whatís going on(see JP heading to the water with the scuba gear and spear). But, JP would be good to have around camp because he does fish and everything, so right now Chrissy and I have not made any decision...

He continues with his second: Ashley is grouped into a power couple, thatís the whole Alan thing, now whether or not thatís true, I cannot fully trust Ashley at this point because she keeps pulling for JP to stay in the game which makes me think that JP and Ashley are still working together, (See JP return from fishing with his fins). And, normally as a power couple on S, it donít work out good. Cut from Ashley staring to Ben. So, I have to wonder, if Ben and Chrissy are the new power couple driving the train, will it not work out so 'good'? Foreshadowing?

Cole was the supporting player to Jessica this week...HIs first was about Jessica, she kept showing me more of herself and I like it, she's my dream girl so he wanted to share the information that he had. His second justifies his actions: Joe complains a lot around camp so heís already rubbed some people the wrong way, see Roark and Desi. And then, on top of that, Joe has the idol. And, the more I thought about Joe having the idol, the more I realize that Joe has all the power, and I donít like that at all....The idol is unpredictable especially in an unpredictable players hands and it has a lot of power and I donít want that power being thrown around without my say in it.

Six players had 1 confessional, Ashley, Alan, Joe, Roark, Desi, Devon, and 3 were UTR; Chrissy, Mike and JP. Ashley's confessional was all about JP getting dreamier and dreamier and she's pissed because she cannot spend any time with him so she's ready for Alan to go...doesn't know when he'll go off again.

Alan has a totally irrelevant confessional about how frustrating it is that he cannot cut the coconuts, and he's an NFL player out of his element, it's hard out here.

Joe: Iím feeling good! Weíve won every challenge, we are a dominant tribe. Life at camp is great. Everyone is still on the same page with, (see Mike walking off into the woods), Mike being the number one vote out because I got everyone believing that Mike has the idol. So, Iím cool and collected right now, things really couldnít go better at this point. The only thing is Cole knows I have the idol so I just, I mean that is a concern of mine. (watches Jess and Cole pushing the boat out to sea...) I donít think Cole has told anybody, but I am definitely concerned about his relationship with Jessica. Theyíve been spending alot of time together fishing and things like that. You know Cole is like a love bird and that love bird disease is dangerous, itís worse than the flu... Joe is correct to have concerns.

Desi and Roark's confessionals were in regard to Joe and then Cole giving them knowledge that Joe has the idol and he's wanting to blindside Joe if they go to TC....First Desi tells us how Joe complains at camp and he chucks food that he doesn't is scarce.

Roark is definitely on board with the blindside Joe plan... Joe is an amazing blindside candidate cause he's locked on Mike.

Devon weighs in on the Lauren or Patrick boot: Pat stepped up at the challenge but, If you step up, you better be able to deliver (See Pat trying to break the tree limb unsuccessfully...) It was just Pat choking, and I do believe we lost because of that....Lauren, (see Lauren walking on the beach), on the other hand, sheís very steady, I trust her, but she doesnít really fit in with the other tribe members. And, if we keep Lauren around we are more likely to lose the next immunity challenge and weíve already lost 2 in a row.

Weighing all the odds...but, when we saw Ryan and Devon discussing who to boot at the water well, Ryan was pro Patrick, and it was Devon that preferred booting Patrick. Food for thought. We can ASSume that Ryan, Devon, and Ali are the core 3. We know that Ali probably would have preferred Lauren to go, because she knew that Patrick would stay loyal to she was most likely influenced by Devon as well?

Chrissy went from 2 to zip. Flying under the radar, but she's seen talking with Ben about how they are the two in control. She also performed well at the challenge stacking the blocks. Mike UTR again. JP falls UTR, seen fishing, and was spoken about positively by Ashley, negatively by Ben.

This coming week we know there will be a tribe shuffle. Who will this benefit? It should benefit the people who are next on the chopping block, namely Lauren, Alan, Ashley, Mike, and Joe. But, Lauren is still an outlier with being one of the oldest and a single mom on a young season. Joe has an idol, that everyone knows about. The shuffle could help Joe and Cole possibly locate ANOTHER idol. (I have to wonder since Cole told everyone about the idol, did he recall the whereabouts of it as well? If so, other Healers could find one?)

Who will it possibly hurt? Alliances....namely Ben/Chrissy, Ryan/Devon/Ali, Cole/Jessica, JP/Ashley.

So, we know that we are shuffling into 3 tribes of 5, so they still need to value their strength. Something to keep in mind.

Safe: Cole: He's in the majority tribe, he's strong and should be valued for his strength at this point, he knows where the idol's are hidden, could find another if at another camp.
Mike: He's been flying under the radar after a good showing in the first episode. Jiffy loves him, so I doubt he'll be an UTR boot. So, we need to watch closely for when his story begins in earnest. We know he's marked by Joe. But, he's social and endearing and a good worker, and good at puzzles. He's in the majority tribe. He's safe.

Slight Risk: Ben ~ he's at slight risk, but he's a diplomat, most likely valued for his strength at this point, I placed him at slight risk because of his over confidence.
Chrissy: she's an older person, mom in a game of younger contestants, could be split from Ben, but she's savvy and good most likely with puzzles. Went UTR in confessionals. Could hook up with Ryan?
Devon: I think of all the red tribe, he's the most valued for his strength. He's good in challenges, he's chill and easy going, he's got charm. I thought about making him safe, but he's in the minority tribe, and at slight risk.
JP: He's a strong male, he's a provider that's quiet and won't make waves but he's been talked about as being a follower.
Desi: Weaker female, but in the majority tribe, could be at slight risk
Roark: Same as Desi, but older, good at puzzles, smart.
Ali: She's a strong female with great social skills, but she's on the minority tribe currently, so I put her at slight risk.
Ashley: She's a strong female, that's quieter. She's at slight risk at this point. Would be funny if she landed on Alan's tribe.

At Risk: Joe. Everyone is going to know that he has the idol....soon, imo. We saw that his tribe doesn't really like him. Can't swim well, weaker in challenges, eats a lot. (Could potentially find another idol?)
Ryan: Ryan has great social skills, could look to join up with Chrissy if they get on the same tribe, he's on the minority tribe and he's a small male. His confessionals are HIGH, could be up for a big fall? HIs arc is rising?
Lauren: Her arc is definitely risen. She's been on the hot seat for the past 2 episodes. She is loyal, but if she's split from her group, and she's the weakest link, she could be in grave danger.
Jessica: She's a strong female, on the majority tribe pre-shuffle, but she's in a "power couple", and she had a large spike in confessionals.
Alan: Alan is a very strong ex-Professional athlete, which makes him valuable until the merge. Therefore, I considered making him safe. But, he's dramatic and causes drama and has enemies...JP and Ashley. If he begins life on his new tribe as he did with his old tribe, he could be at risk, he will be the BOOT.

ETA: Moved Alan from slight risk to at risk.

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10-16-17, 06:14 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Confessionals Episode 3"
Thanks FlowerPower!

Joe and Cole each have a 2/3 chance of ending up on a beach that still has an idol hidden 5' from the water well assuming the idol is hidden the same in all 3 camps.

FlowerPower is on a winning streak...

At risk: Ashley, Joe, Jessica, Simone
At risk: Lauren, Patrick, Joe
At Risk: Joe, Ryan, Lauren, Jessica, Alan
(though you did pick 1/3 of the players remaining to be at Risk this week

Of those 5 I think Alan might be in the biggest trouble if he gets separated from the Heroes.

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10-17-17, 08:50 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Confessionals Episode 3"
Ha, Sheldor! I teetered with Alan, originally placing him at slight risk....but, when it came down to it, the drama that he caused in the first episode could be his demise, IF, his tribe goes to TC. And, he's such a beast, that him going to TC is in doubt?
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10-24-17, 05:13 PM (EST)
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8. "Confessionals Episode 4"
LAST EDITED ON 10-24-17 AT 05:14 PM (EST)

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13
Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 10
Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 9
Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 8
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7
Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 6
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6
Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 5
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 4
Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3
JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | 2

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

This week the star of the show was Jessica with 5 confessionals, and she jumps up to the second highest total of everyone. Hmmmm?

Her first confessional was in regard to reacting to the swap...looked over at Cole and he had the red buff too, my palms were sweaty, my heart was racing...reactionary.

Next confessional was in regard to finding the secret advantage:
While the whole tribe is getting to know each other, I look in my chip bag and there is, to my surprise, the words, secret advantage. It looked like a big chip, I almost ate it. And, then I am like well that would have been awful! giggle. I probably stared at it a little too long, then I was like, Jessica, you are staring at your chips too long, until I can get a better read on it, so then I just rolled it up. Then, she reads the note, and continues, Right now I feel like I have a ton of power ~ I have the opportunity to block another players vote at the next TC. She reads more and then continues again...I can only imagine what kind of chaos this could cause when itís actually used, so I feel lucky that I found it. Somebodies angel was like, bing, there you go, my friend.

Third confessional was after Mike told her that Lauren knew about her advantage...When he said that they know about your secret advantage, everything in me crashed. Because, only 2 people knew, Cole and Mike. So, one of them opened their mouth.

She goes on in her fourth confessional:
Cole burned me bad. He canít even keep a secret for a day.......He hurt me, whether he meant to or not, he did. But, I would never admit that to him. When I get hurt I always wonder, was it me? And, did I choose to form a relationship with someone that I just shouldnít have, and thatís why I got hurt. Thatís how I feel now with Cole. Did I make a poor decision from the beginning, and how do I move forward in this game thinking that? So, yeah, I had to swallow that, yeah, it hurt.

Her last confessional came after the IC win. She comments on using her advantage...Tonight, I have the opportunity to block someones vote at TC. The goal is to help the healers. The goal is to disrupt the Levu tribe as much as I can.

Joe, Devon, and Desi had 3 confessionals, because they were in the tribe that goes to TC. Devon, in particular was in the swing position and was integral to the action. Joe, was strategic. He was going to play the idol, he needed to behave to get them to choose him to vote for. He was observant, and he came out on top. Definitely rough around the edges, but effective. Desi was reactionary.

We didn't hear from Joe until the swap and reward challenge were over. His first one sized up his thoughts: Thanks to the swap, itís a whole new game. When I was with the Healers we won every challenge, so I had no worries. But, now, I am not as confident. I do have an idol but I am not taking any chances. Devonís a swing vote but I want him on my side. This confessional is interrupted by us seeing Joe tell Devon that the Heroes came to them and said they wanted Devon out. It continued: I may be a healer but I am also a strategic player, so I said, listen Devon, the two heroes, they want to vote you out, see Alan..., but, I made it up, and I donít care. You know this is a game of being deceitful so I am gonna do what I have to do...

I have to say that I am warming to Joe. Definitely rough around the edges, but he's a player.

The second confessional is after they lose the IC and TC is looming and he sets his plan...Devon, he could be playing with me. I think he has this emotional connection with Ashley. Heís a surfer dude and Ashley is all about the water so, I donít feel confident....Iím gonna have to play the idol, but if they vote out Desi, then I just wasted an idol and I am next, so? See Ashely and Alan in the shelter. So, If I am gonna get one of them out, I have to make sure that they vote for me.

His last confessional creates doubt to the success of his plan: I am kind of nervous, I wanted to create some chaos, but now itís backfired and Desi is afraid itís her. I was just like, crap!

Devon as the swing vote is central to the action on his tribe. He first reacts to Joe telling him the Heroes want him out...I donít know if I can really trust Joe. But, this is really the first time that I have felt, shoot, I might be going home, I gotta figure out my next move. (We see Alan and Ashley walking on the beach together.)...Or, I feel like I could be in big trouble. Scene ends with a close up of Devon looking worried.

Next, Devon tells us that he's not as dumb as he appeared to be...When Joe told me they were trying to vote me out, I had this feeling that I was being talked to like by a car salesman. I was like, this might be a lie. And, now, I think it was. (See Joe)...I think I can trust Ash, and Alan seems like a straight forward guy too, so, Joeís a snake. And, I donít like having snakes around. Our title, and I note that the title was spoken by one going to TC.

His last confessional was the last of the episode right before TC, and it was in regard to finding the secret advantage in his bag, which he mistakenly takes for a good thing...Weíre about to go to Tribal, and I discover in my bag a secret advantage. If I have a secret admirer, that is a beautiful thing! It could be an extra vote, it could be anything. I have no idea. But, with that, and being the swing vote, I have all the power in my hands.

Desi has a narrational confessional, optimistic after the swap...The swap worked out really well for me, we have 3 of the strongest men, (focus, zoom in on Alan), we have Ashley who is a super strong swimmer, so I know, I think that we are in a great situation physically. I donít think there is any reason we couldnít dominate. Her second one was sizing them up upon arrival at their beach post RC...Right now we have 2 heroes, we have Alan and Ashley, 2 Healers, Me and Joe, and one, in what I think is the strongest of all the Hustlers, in Devon, in the middle. See Devon. (See Alan) It would be easy for the 4 of us to just vote Devon out, but I would rather work with him because he is potentially the swing vote. Her last is also narrating events that had occurred just prior...Joe has lost his mind. He just blew up camp and in the process he blew up both of our games. It was an idiotic move. Now, my names on the chopping block. (Crying) I am just pissed off. Iím already devastated and we havenít even gone to TC...

Alan, Lauren, Ben, Ashley, Cole and Chrissy all have 2 confessionals. Alan and Ashley had two, and they were in the midst of the drama.

Alan did not have a confessional until after they lose the IC, BUT, he was very present all over the episode. They zoomed in on him at every turn. When they arrived at challenge beach pre-swap, during the swap, during the RC, and after. Then, when they returned to camp, Ashley and Alan spoke to each other and he noted they had history, but he would NOT write her name down...we see him zoomed in at the IC as well, he performed amazingly well, and was the reason his tribe was first going under the netting part. We did not hear him bash Ashley for not going faster with the locks. His first confessional: We lost again. We got me and Ash, you got Desi and Joe, you got Devon. See Devon. No question that Devon is the swing vote and whoever he goes with is gonna come out on top. His second confessional is the second to the last of the episode where he sizes it up: Now, everything is up in the air cause if he pulls out the idol, and we write his name down, then one of us is going home. He accurately assesses the position they are in.

Ashley first reacts to Alan being on her tribe post swap: If there was one person out of all 3 tribes that I did not want on my new tribe, that would have been Alan. (See Alan). Heís proven to be this wild card, you know heíll just call you out and throw you under the bus and heís already done it to me and so, I was really nervous....Luckily, I think Alan is a as nervous as I am, even though I donít trust him, I do trust that he doesnít want to go home.

Then, after Joe goes off after the IC loss...Joe wants to talk about who we are getting rid of and of course itís my name that comes up....This is total bullcrap, I donít think I am the weakest by any means. I donít know what Joeís plan is because he has to know the more he pisses people off, people are going to want to get rid of him.

With this, the Alan vs. Ashley conflict is resolved. If you look at their confessionals, they mirror each others. Interesting. Both started out with a bang, then they had one confessional each per episode, and then 2 this episode.

Chrissy had the first confessional of the show and it was narrational...Itís day 9 and we were all starting to get a little bit comfortable. But, when Jeff says drop your buffs, all of that gets erased, and itís a brand new game.

Her second: Chrissy in confessional with enthusiasm: Ryan, he blew my mind, he totally gave me the super idol and seriously made me feel so loved. I thought what was it that he looked over at me on that ship and thought I looked like a kind person he wanted to play this game with? Maybe he thought that I looked like his mother? Smile. And, he wanted to play the game with his mother. I donít know?....I am absolutely thrilled, I feel very very secure because now I have one more person that can help me get further in this game.

(Regardless that I thought he gave her the idol because she was the obvious weak link....lost the challenge, collapsed, vomited....doesn't matter, it's how it made her feel. Ryan earned big points with Chrissy, handled himself very well!)

Ben's confessional: First one is his reaction to the swap...Being split up from Chrissy, thatís a shot in the foot right there. Things were well oiled and greased and things were moving, see a shot of Ben and Chrissy looking at each other from separate mats. ...So, I am going to have to put some work in and I am not just going to roll over and die. But, my odds at this point are real low to move forward, Iím scared.

He continues after the RC, which they won. He notes, First initial impression of our tribe, there is a little bit of comfort in knowing that we work well together, and won that PB & J. (See Jessica, then Lauren) 3 Healers, 1 Hustler, and 1 Hero, thatís a target, Bang, right on my I have to earn my way around here and gain trust to keep my butt in the game.

Lauren also had 2 confessionals regarding Cole telling her about Jessica's secret confessional...Supposedly, Jessica got an advantage in the bottom of her chip bag, which is odd that Cole told us that. It could be that Cole just told us that to make us believe in him. (See Jessica and Cole dancing)...And, if he is, thatís just great. But, I would rather put my faith in my own hands so I will be using your little secret to my advantage. Her second: Ben and I are a little out numbered here. The only way to gain a little bit of control here would be to get Dr. Mike to join us. See Mike, with them. So, if Dr. Mike doesnít know that Jessica got the advantage, Iím going to use that against those two...see Cole go under water.

Lauren is a clinical player. Her biggest weakness is her social interaction, and she knows it. I have to say that I am enjoying her. I'd like to see her and Joe on the same tribe.

Cole had 2 confessionals as well. He's clinical this episode as well. He employed a strategy in the past and it worked so he's going to do it again...Jessica just gave me a huge piece of knowledge and knowledge is power in Survivor. When I shared with Jessica that Joe had an idol, instantly her next move was to give me a hug and a kiss on the cheek, and say I trust you now, Cole. So, I plan to use that method with other people.

The second was after Mike told that Lauren knew...In my head I am instantly just like, crap crap crap...Jessica is going to look at me and think Cole, you betrayed me.

Ryan, Ali, Mike, and Roark all have one confessional each.

Ali: She spoke after the RC win...Now that the H, H, H are all switched up, you have to step up a level, and you gotta perform! And, perform she did for the win.

Ryan had one in regard to being happy that he was on the same tribe as Chrissy...The swap brings such anxiety, but I was very lucky that Chrissy swapped onto my tribe because I awarded her the super immunity idol that I found on the boat on day one and I ensured her that she would not be the one going home that night, so I have an in!

Mike finally comes out from under the radar and has this confessional: So, Lauren says, there was an advantage in the game, which clearly somebody from my tribe has then told her. It is clear to me it is Cole. (See Cole with the snorkel gear smiling at Jessica)....Because Cole, sometimes he canít keep his mouth shut and those things come back to bite you in the butt.... This confessional is really narrational.

And, finally, Roark has one as well, which is her reaction from the swap...narrational...The new Soko consists of myself, JP & Chrissy from Heroes, and Ryan and Ali from the Hustlers. I pretty much went from the tribe of 6 Healers that were super tight to the lone healer at Soko beach. This confessional was redundant, as Jiffy pointed out the exact same thing immediately after their buffs were revealed.

JP flies under the radar...

Conflicts: I wanted to talk about conflicts. They are often set up at the beginning of the season. In the first episode we had these conflicts: Ashley vs Alan; I won't say JP, because he never really commented on it, nor did he at TC, it was Ashley that reacted to Alan. Patrick vs. Lauren. Joe vs. Mike. It is why when you play the game of Survivor you should be chill and get along with everyone. Asserting yourself and your opinions can spell demise. So, in the early stages, a lot of the boots are conflict resolutions. Last episode we saw the Lauren vs. Patrick conflict settled. This week, the Ashley vs. Alan conflict is resolved. Lauren trumped Patrick, but Ashley and Alan buried the hatchet/conflict to commit to working together, but were outplayed. Two ways that conflicts are resolved.

Some of the later conflicts we are being set up with: Joe vs. Cole, Jessica vs. Cole. Despite Jessica and Cole's attraction, they are now in conflict.

We heard that Desi, along with Roark, were game to blindside Joe, earlier. But, Desi knew that Joe had the idol, so when Joe told her he had it and would play it for her, I am sure that served to bond Desi more to Joe. Joe was forthcoming to her. Let's face it, as long as you have Joe along with you, he's clearly going to be the bigger target. Sticking to Joe could serve Desi well, but she better have a back up plan, as Joe is a very large target.

Now, I would like to comment on Jessica, who strikes me as spoiled, naiive, entitled, disrespectful, and immature. There is no way that I see her winning this game. She doesn't stop to think that since everyone knows about her secret advantage, it could come back to bite her later. She's just not a savvy player. Her arc is in full swing. It could signify that these events will school her, and perhaps she could turn into a longer lasting journey player, OR, they may signify the beginning of her end. However, with the tribe that she is on, I see her as at slight risk this episode.

Safe: Cole, Ben, Chrissy, Lauren, Mike(he came out from under the radar but we know he finds the HII, and I don't think this is his final arc), Ryan & Ali: Both have a big dip down to 1 confessional but they have each other and thanks to Ryan, they have Chrissy and the majority)
Slight Risk: Jessica(her arc has peaked, no where to go but down?), Devon & Desi: both jumped up to 3 confessionals from 1, slight risk. JP ~ He is under the radar and a candidate for a surprise boot, BUT, he's the strongest of only 2 guys on his tribe, they need him.
At Risk: Joe, Ashley, Roark

Joe has a spike from 1 - 3, he's without an idol, and Desi has spoken in the past how she doesn't like him. Ashley is the lone Hero, if Devon doesn't want to go to rocks, she could be toast. Roark: She's had 1 confessional the last 2 episodes, but she really doesn't say anything. She is an easy target as the lone yellow...This could be her final arc.

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10-31-17, 10:56 PM (EST)
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9. "Ep 5 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 10-31-17 AT 10:56 PM (EST)

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16
Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 12
Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 11
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 9
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9
Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 6
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 8
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7
Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 5
Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6
JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

Ryan remains one of the stars of the show with 3 confessionals. He lost the challenge but has to stick to his great skill set of a great social game. Everyone has failure, just don't want it to be getting voted out. Then, he has one about being in the middle....the good news is he is in a position where they want to work with him, needs to tread lightly not to mess it up. Then, he gets the last confessional before TC...he's in the swing vote position, some one will hate him when it's over, but he has to do what's best to advance his game.

Ali also had 3 confessionals, and she set up how much she trusted Ryan...Ryan didn't do well in the challenge but I have to have his back, she's been with him the entire game, her trust is there. Then, the hustlers were a group of losers, but now she can start to build these personal relationships to further her game. Hopefully, with the bond with Roark, at the merge, she take her and then she will have numbers. Finally, she notes the main reason to get Chrissy out is that she didn't do well in the challenge, so she wants her out next.

Roark had 3 confessionals, in her boot episode. She's the lone healer, wants to dev'p trust with them, pre-going to water hole with Ali. It's good to receive some support from Ali, as she can give her numbers at the merge. Next, Chrissy struggled in the challenge today so she needs to go. Last, They are going to Tribal and this is the very first day that Chrissy chooses to talk to her head, really? Chrissy needs to go.

Chrissy is steady with 2 confessionals: First one: I do not feel safe going into tribal, I am having a hard time trusting any one but I think that I am going to have to go there in order to move forward in this game. ...You always are nervous in this game and I feel if I am gonna play, I want to play big. Then, see Chrissy and Roark go off to talk together. Next confessional, Chrissy spins her plan: I wanted to work with Roark going forward but I canít believe a word she says. And, I wish that I could stop and say to her, you are not the smartest person here , but I donít want to ruin my game.
So, my plan is to create this imaginary girls alliance. If there is a girls alliance than clearly I would not be the one voted out, see JP chopping a coconut...and JP might think that he was the next to go, see a spider....
Chrissy's confessionals are interrupted by us seeing her in action....

Ashley also had 2 confessionals: At TC, when J decided to play the idol for himself, my entire face just dropped. Everythining in my whole world just stopped. I wouldnít say that I was like 100% team Alan, but he was the one hero on my tribe...Joe made himself a target on purpose, so he tricked us all! It was a scary one, heís getting crazier and crazier. But, right now, itís 2 vs. 2, so who knows whatís going to happen? see Joe bending over the shelter. Her next confessional was after the TC, she was nervous but now she has Devon, they are in this together.

Seven people had 1 confessional:

Jessica gets back to baseline with 1 confessional...When I first got here I felt that Cole, Mike and I were in control....see Cole dipping his fingers into the peanut butter....but, after seeing Cole tell secrets, I do believe that Mike is paranoid about Cole as a number. On the flip side of that, Mike can keep a secret. So, right now, it would be a benefit to my game to for more of a bond with Mike.

Lauren's confessional is narrational about the pig, Cole. He's gross, he's licking his fingers and scratching his crotch, others see it too.

Desi's is narrational as well...After winning the RC, they got the sweetest reward, first they were divided but now t's time to come together as a team.

Ben has the PTSD's a Hell that they live with, his wife and kids saved him and now he's playing to show them all that the future will save you, the past will eat you alive.

Joe settles down and rehashes his play...I completely blindsided this entire tribe with the idol. I just wanted them to throw the votes to me so I had to play the nervous route, I didnít want anyone thinking I was over-confident. You know, I had the idol, I put my hands up, my head down, it was all an act. I had the idol, Iím not going home.

Devon's confessional was the reward was great but what's best for my game is getting rid of Joe.

MIke's confessional was about finding the idol, his kids will be proud and now he's trusting Jessica and he's okay with that.

This week a lot of people settle down.

Jessica has finished one story arc and is moving in a different direction with Mike. Good for her. Mike finds an idol and has formed a bond with Jessica, good for him.
Lauren and Desi are safe and narrating events. Devon drops down to 1, he's settled down, he's doing very well for his tribe in challenges.

OTOH, Ali and Ryan mirror each other this week, and last. They both begin a new story arc, will if be the final one for one of them? Joe dips down to one, and we heard how Devon wants him out. Ashley has 2 confessionals, as she did last week, is this her final story arc? Cole was consistent and now he's appearing negatively, and he falls below the radar and next week we see him pass out. JP, still under the radar.

Safe: Ryan, Jessica, Lauren, Ben, Chrissy, Devon, Mike.
At slight risk: Desi, she went from 3 to 1, but she's seen as a very strong competitor in challenges, and an asset.
At risk: Ali, she went from 1 to 3, and Ryan was her only ally, now Ryan has chosen Chrissy over her. If they go to TC, she could be toast.
Joe: He went from 3 to 1, and we heard that Devon wants him gone, and wants to get Desi with them.
Ashley: This could be her final arc, if Devon decides Desi won't budge, then he may leave Ashley in the dust.
Cole: He's a pig and they are noticing, and he's blabbed every secret. He passes out in the next episode, and Jessica isn't ready to play this game without him...misdirection or foreshadowing?
JP: If Ryan fights for both his allies and insists on JP....

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11-06-17, 09:37 AM (EST)
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10. "Episode 6 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-17 AT 09:39 AM (EST)

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 20
Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X
Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 11
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8
Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 7
Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7
JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | 4

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

First of all, Ryan continues to be the star of the show. He IS narrating a lot. His reaction and defensiveness toward Ali along with his own admission that "he's a weasel" clearly is painting him as a villain. I agree with blindsiding one of your closest ally's, that Ali had to go. But, he handled it poorly. I can't help but see that perhaps Chrissy is the true puppet master.

Ryan had 4 confessionals:

So, Ali rails into me and um, it was a really bad look for her. I was hoping that I could still work with Ali at this point, unfortunately Ali is infuriated with me because I didnít tell her and it stinks, because I canít have enemies in this game. So, she may have to go.

I have to think, what did he expect from a blindside like that? Ali handled it poorly, no question, but his reaction was handled very poorly as well. Fortunately for him the only real witnesses to him blindsiding one of his closest ally's were Chrissy, who pushed him to do it, and JP, who appears clueless. He was right though, she never would have trusted him again...

Next Ryan talks about JP after he won the RC singlehandedly...
JP is a tank in these challenges, I guess being a fire fighter he has that strength, but he is very athletic..and, the merge is going to happen very soon, and the physical part of the challenges, see JP tending to the fire, is a very big part of it and that raises the threat level of JP. And, heís also somebody who is tough to read becasue he doesnít talk much strategy at all. JP likes talking about chicks and bars and things that I donít know anything about. And, he just has no clue about anything that is going on in this game. JP doesnít understand that this is a social game. Itís amazing that heís still here and if we go to TC we maybe should consider taking out a big physical threat right before the merge, priority number one.? See JP in the smoke...

Next, Ali is the next target, but JP is a huge physical threat. He has literally carried us, heís carried me through a challenge, literally...taking that guy into a merge, thatís dangerous. But in order to vote out JP, I need to make up with Ali. I mean she trusted me alot and I did back stab her. I need her to get rid of JP for this vote.

We see Ryan doing order for him to blindside her she has to believe he is with her.

Finally he has the last confessional before TC, and he's showing his true colors. He's starting to get arrogant and he calls himself the weasel...JP and Ali are polar opposites, but concurrently they both want to work with me. I donít know why everyone wants to work with me, I think I am a frigginí weasel. But, the closer you are to somebody, the more they canít see you and you can go behind their back and back stab them.


Ali had 3 confessionals. She was betrayed by her closest ally in the game, it's rough...After TC she had a blow up now she's more nervous than ever....then, a note of hope, when she thinks she has found her crack and she just has to make it one or two more tribals, and JP is a physical threat.

Ben, Joe, Mike, Chrissy, and JP have 2 confessionals. We will start with Joe, who had 2 because he found the idol again, which starts another story arc for him. First, Joe is not stupid, he knows that Devon is watching him...his game is to have power, control, and to manipulate. He knew the idol had to be near the water, he wants to get rid of the clue later, he does not want anyone to know this time, that will be real power! He'll get it tonight.

Then, This is not a vacation for me, itís work. Nice sympathetic music. see him find it. Finding another idol represents moving forward in the game. The further I get the closer to that million dollars I get and the closer I get that I could provide that much more for my children. You know, I tell my kids all the time, things just donít come easy. SEE A SNAKE CREEP OUT. You have to put in the work and you know like my kids are my motivation. Everything I do is for them, you know? If I had to dig a hole that was 10 ft, I would do it. Finds it, and he says, ďThis is why you play Survivor!Ē Iíve been at 2 camps, this is the second idol that I have found. Nice upbeat music begins to play. And, if I move onto the merge, guess what? Iím gonna find a third idol.

I thought this was a very positive confessional for Joe. It's work, not a vacation, he's doing it for his kids, put in the work...this is why you play Survivor! And, he vows to find the third idol! Another million dollar quote for Joe and a title quote! Putting his money where his mouth is despite the opposition. The only negative thing placed right smack in the middle of the confessional was the SNAKE. Will someone foil his well layed out plans?

Ben and Mike are both starting story arcs, will one be the final arc? Ben bumps up from one to two. His confessionals: His first was laughing about Mike catching the fish, and no matter how small it was, he shared it, otoh, Cole caught decent sized fish and ate them all himself, shows his true colors, and they ain't good. Next, he talks about how funny it is that things work out, Cole sealed his fate when he fell over, and Mike and Lauren are on board. Ben has found new friends in Lauren and Mike.

Mike's story arc started last week with finding the HII, and this week it continues...his first was narrational about catching the fish and providing for his tribe, he can do anything he puts his heart and mind to. His next was about Cole being a liability...they would just have to keep pulling and pulling him...they need to get rid of Cole.

I have to admit that I am a bit worried about Mike, with this uptick, and then we see him a lot in the preview promo, BUT, he has an HII, so he should live to see another episode!

Chrissy had the first confessional of the game, talking about how Ryan did as planned which shows her he thinks he can get further in the game with her. Next, Ali's told her she wants to work with her, but last TC she voted for me, so I don't know if I can trust her. I trust Ryan the most so we have to make the decision together.

Then, we have JP who has been under the radar for the past 3 episodes and with this episode he has 2 confessionals. It's not a good sign that his first confessional after being under the radar is full of arrogance...I donít like to be in the limelight that much, but in this case itís good for my game because the bottom line is that they need me 100%. Cause without me there is no way that they would be able to get through any challenge. No way.

Next, the arrogance continues: Well, todays IC didnít go too well for us, but itís just not a big deal. (see Ali). Ali is next and she has nothing that she can do about it. Itís as simple as that. Dramatic fast beat music plays. Hmmmmm?

Everyone else had 1 confessional.

Jessica had one. Just when we thought she could be a contender for the win and cut Cole, she now affirms that she is not ready to play this game without him. Not a good sign.

Lauren: We see Lauren and Cole get into it a little bit at the shelter, Cole tells her not to cut him off...then Lauren notes that Mike is seeing Cole's true colors, Ben and her were at the bottom, they needed Dr. Mike. The more Cole screws up and acts like an idiot, the better she is. Narrational.

Ashley: She's a little bit nervous if they go to TC, cause she and Devon are tight, and it would be 2 vs. 2. Going to try and get Desi to flip on Joe.

Devon: Joe makes him nervous, he's already found one II, better than his own record, he needs to keep eagle eyes on wasn't a good sign that Joe found the clue while Devon was keeping eagle eyes on him.

Desi: Ashley brought up the idea of getting rid of Joe....Joe will use her up to a point. He will do whatever it takes to get himself further. She's considering getting rid of Joe. Is Desi the SNAKE that we saw in the middle of Joe's confessional.

Finally, there is Cole.

Iím not getting enough food at all and itís stupid. Iím not going to be strong enough like at any challenge to guarantee we come away winning and I really need a bigger serving because without me there wouldnít be any victory for the Yawa tribe.

Interesting that Cole's confessional is almost the same as JP's, they wouldn't win without me. Again, when you think you are indispensable, that's when you go.

Safe: Ryan, Jessica, Lauren, Ashley, Devon, Desi, Chrissy
Slight Risk: Joe, Mike Joe and Mike both have an uptick to their edit. We see them both in the promo preview, Mike is all over it. Joe has had a positive confessional, but it was interrupted with a snake, and we have heard Desi, Devon, Ashley plotting to get him, and that they are on to him as a strategic player. He's a target. But, he and Mike both have a get out of jail card with the HII.
At Risk: Cole, JP, Ben

Ben has an uptick in his confessionals, and he's seen all over the preview promo. He could be considered a target. However, I think that the two main contenders for boot are JP and Cole. Both have appeared very arrogant and cocky. But, I think Cole is the most at risk as he was looked at extremely negatively by everyone in his former tribe except his gf, Jessica. If he doesn't win immunity, he could be the first boot at the merge.

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11-06-17, 10:19 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Episode 6 Confessionals"
Nice analysis, FP. Personally, I think Joe will be the target and that his idol would get either Ben or Devon but since you have Devon as being safe then I'd have to vote for Ben.

I think fainting may actually work in Cole's favor: Whereas he could have been seen as a challenge threat after the merger, his moment of weakness will have told everyone that he can't last so why waste a vote on him?

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11-08-17, 04:27 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Episode 6 Confessionals"
THANKS FlowerPower for your HARD Work and Excellent Analysis!

I thought it would be interesting to look at the History of Confessionals from the last 8 Seasons (28-35) after 6 (or 7) Vote Offs and where the WINNER stood...

S35 18 Players Heroes vs Healers vs Hustlers
episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 20
Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X
Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 11
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8
Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 7
Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7
JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | 4

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X
F14 Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X


S34 20 Players Game Changers
episode | I | 1a| 1b| 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | total
Sandra Mana-nuku | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X
Varner Mana-nuku | * | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 13
Tai Nuku-mana | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 12
Debbie Nuku-mana | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11
Brad Nuku-mana | 1 | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9
Michaela Mana-nuku | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 3 | * | 8
Troyzan Mana-tavu | * | 1 | * | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | 7
Zeke Nuku-tavu | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4 | 7
Cirie Nuku-tavu | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 6
Hali Mana-mana | * | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | * | 6
Ozzy Nuku-tavu | * | 1 | * | 2 | 1 | * | 1 | 5
Aubry Mana-nuku | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5
Andrea Nuku-tavu | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 4
Sarah Nuku-tavu | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 1 | 1 | 4 <-- WINNER
Sierra Nuku-mana | * | 1 | * | 1 | 1 | * | * | 3

Ciera Mana | * | 2 | 2X
Tony Mana | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8X
Caleb Mana-mana | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6X
Malcolm Mana-nuku | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9X
JT Nuku-nuku | * | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4*| 11X
Sandra Mana-nuku | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 19X


S33 Millennials vs Gen X
episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | total
David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22
Chris Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 13
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 12
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 <-- WINNER
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 11
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 8
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 7
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 6
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 5
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 4
Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 3

Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X


S32 18 Players KaŰh Rōng (Brains/Beauty/Brawn)
episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | total
Tai Go | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16
Scot To | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 15
Debbie Ch | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13
KyleJason To | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12
Peter Ch | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12
Cydney Go | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8
Anna Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Neal Ch | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 6
Aubry Ch | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5
Nick Go | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5
Michele Go | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 5 <-- WINNER
Joe Ch | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4
Julia Go | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X


S31 20 Players Cambodia (Second Chance)
episode | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | total
Spencer T/B | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 20
Abi-Maria T/A| 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | . | 15
Andrew B/A | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | . | 4 | 15
Tasha B/A | 1$| 1 | . | 4 | 3 | 2 | . | 11
Kelley T/T | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1$| 11
Jeremy B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 11 <-- WINNER
Terry T/B | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
Woo T/A | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X
Kass B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | . | 5 | 10
Stephen B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 3 | 9
Joe B/T | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 6
Kimmi B/B | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | 2 | . | 4
Ciera B/T | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | . | 2 | 5
Kelly T/B | 1 | 1 | 1 | . | . | . | . | 3
Keith B/T | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | . | 3

F20 Vytas | 0 | 2 | 2X
F19 Shirin | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6X
F18 Pei-Gee | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F17 Jeff | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
F16 Monica | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
F15 Terry T/B | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 6X
F14 Woo T/A | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8X


S30 18 Players Worlds Apart
episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 | total
Jenn NN 7 2 4 2 4 1 | 20
Mike EE 2 2 3 3 5 2 | 17 <-- WINNER
Rodney EE 3 2 4 3 1 3 | 16
Carolyn MN 7 0 2 1 3 1 | 14
Shirin MN 2 1 2 1 3 3 | 12
Will NN 2 4 3 2 1 0 | 12
Hali NN 2 2 2 1 3 1 | 11
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2 | 10 X
Joe NE 3 2 4 0 0 1 | 10
Dan EE 4 0 1 1 1 1 | 8
Kelly EN 1 0 1 2 3 1 | 8
Sierra EE 1 0 0 1 4 2 | 8
Tyler ME 3 1 2 0 1 0 | 7

So M 6 | 6
Vince N 5 6 | 11
Nina N 1 2 3 | 6
Lindsey E 2 1 3 1 | 7
Max MN 3 2 0 0 4 | 9
Joaquin ME 3 1 2 1 1 2 | 10 X


S29 18 Players San Juan del Sur
episode 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 | total
Jeremy HH 1 4 2 3 3 4 5 | 22
Josh CH 1 4 3 8 0 3 1 | 20
Keith HC 1 5 0 4 2 2 1 | 15
Baylor CC 1 3 1 4 2 2 0 | 13
Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 3 | 13 X
Jon HC 1 1 2 0 2 4 3 | 12
Alec CH 1 1 0 2 2 2 1 | 9
Missy HC 1 2 1 1 0 1 3 | 9
Julie HH 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 | 7
Natalie HH 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 | 7 <-- WINNER
Reed HH 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 | 5
Wes CH 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 | 5
Jaclyn CC 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 | 4

Dale CC 1 5 1 0 1 2 3 | 13
Kelley HC 1 0 1 0 2 2 | 6
Drew H 1 1 0 1 8 | 11
John C 1 2 2 4 | 9
Val C 1 3 3 | 7
Nadiya C 1 3 | 4


S28 18 Players Cagayan
episode a+b 2 3 4 5 total
Tony AS 3+3 5 1 2 5 | 19 <-- WINNER
L.J. SS 3+0 3 3 5 1 | 15
Spencer LA 5+1 2 1 3 3 | 15
Sarah AA 3+2 3 3 2 1 | 14
Tasha LA 3+2 2 1 2 2 | 12
Morgan SA 6+1 1 2 1 0 | 11
Alexis SA 3+0 2 2 1 2 | 10 x
Kass LA 3+2 1 2 1 1 | 10
Trish AS 3+1 1 0 3 2 | 10
Jeremiah SA 1+0 3 2 0 2 | 8
Jefra SS 3+0 2 0 1 1 | 7
Lindsey AS 3+1 0 0 1 1 | 6 x
Woo AS 1+0 1 2 1 1 | 6

Alexis SA 3+0 2 2 1 2 | 10
Lindsey AS 3+1 0 0 1 1 | 6
Cliff AS 2+2 0 1 3 | 8
J'Tia L 2+2 1 2 | 7
Brice S 1+2 2 | 5
Garrett L 5+4 | 9
David L 3 | 3


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11-08-17, 08:14 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Episode 6 Confessionals"
Thanks so much for your support, Sheldor, I am a GREAT fan of yours too! And, Thanks for posting the past seasons! I often go back and review them. So interesting how the men winners seem to be clustered at the top, and the girls are down at the bottom! We've always noted how they seem to edit men and women winners differently.

Note at the bottom of the confessional board, there are NO women! Wonder if that means a man will win this season?

I also want to say that this week, I could be wrong with predicting who is at risk via the confessionals. I really try to look at the confessionals, content and number, and then match them with what we see on the promos. It's the hidden boots that seem to squeak by every now and then, but at least it is a tool we can use!

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11-08-17, 08:25 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Episode 6 Confessionals"
"Note at the bottom of the confessional board, there are NO women!"

Well, there is Desi. Also, Chrissy and Ashley are both in the bottom half...

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11-10-17, 02:20 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Episode 6 Confessionals"
You're Welcome FlowerPower!

"I also want to say that this week, I could be wrong with predicting who is at risk via the confessionals. I really try to look at the confessionals, content and number, and then match them with what we see on the promos. It's the hidden boots that seem to squeak by every now and then, but at least it is a tool we can use!"

Well you were right you were finally wrong but the Merge episode is always hard to predict!

Ep1 At Risk: Ashley, Joe, Jessica, Simone
Ep2 At Risk: Lauren, Patrick, Joe
Ep3 At Risk: Joe, Ryan, Lauren, Jessica, Alan
Ep4 At Risk: Joe, Ashley, Roark
Ep5 At Risk: Ali, Joe, Ashley, Cole, JP

Episode 6 Confessionals
Safe: Ryan, Jessica, Lauren, Ashley, Devon, Desi, Chrissy
Slight Risk: Joe, Mike
At Risk: Cole, JP, Ben

5 in a row before a miss is REALLY GOOD!

And JP is getting close to Purple Kelly in lack of Confessionals!

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11-14-17, 09:33 AM (EST)
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16. "Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the merge"

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 23
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 17
Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 2 | 13
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12
Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 5 | 12
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10
Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 7
JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | * | 4

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X
F16 Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

Starting out, just looking at the numbers, here is what I could predict:

Safe: Ryan, Ashley
Slight risk: Lauren, Joe, Chrissy, Mike (Lauren, Mike, and Chrissy have a bump by one confessional, which could be the start of their final arc. Joe is stable in confessionals but no longer has an idol.
At risk: JP, Desi at risk for being a surprise boot as both were UTR. Ben, Devon, and Cole at risk as they have a spike in confessionals. The beginning of the end?

Star of the show was Ben, the man in the middle. Ben first told us that he'd do okay if he stuck with the Yawa 5, but he's concerned with Cole...he and Jess sit right down and play patty cake, it's hard to trust them.

2nd: This is the greatest feeling ever! You want to make the merge because then S. starts....see zoom in on DEVON. Thatís when you start finding your true alliance, but you gotta be on top of your game and the merge is the first step to getting to that million dollars. Spelling it out for us, I had to note that when he said this is when Survivor starts they zoomed in on Devon. Is he narrating his own game plan, or what Devon will do?

3rd: Before the tribe swap, Chrissy and I were pretty tight. But, no one knows that we were working together. And, sheís wanting to talk in front of everyone, see Ryan, and thatís kind of concerning because I donít want us two to seem like a tight alliance.

4th: Right now I am listening to everyone, I could go with the old heroes and old hustlers or I could see if we could get that Yawa 5 working. The question is could I trust Cole? (See Cole eating a cinnamon stick.) Heís selfish and I donít think Cole respects anyone here, ominous music playing. He just respects himself and you need help to get to the end, period. Right now I need someone that I can trust and right now Coleís up there eating freakiní cinnamon sticks...

5th: Cole came up to me and apologized and I did my, Oh no, bud, itís all good...
ya know heís offended me the whole time Iíve been at camp with separating from the old Yawa tribe, see Lauren and Jess walking...could burn me later...I got to be tactically and not emotionally. Tactically if I have to work with Cole to get further in the game then I will.

6th: Also the last confessional of the episode: Chrissy? She trusts me, so tonight am I going to have to break that with Chrissy and vote her out or break away from the Yawa 5 and get a healer out? I am sitting in the middle and and having to choose a side is the worse thing you can do in a game for a million dollars. But, tonight the battle lines will be drawn, weíre going to war and war is not a pretty thing cause we are going to war tonight! With this, Ben is propelled up the leader board and therefore, with a big spike, he's hot for booting...but, with his reunion with Chrissy and Co., he's most likely safe.

This episode could have been called, WWBD? A case for the man in the middle. We all knew that Ben would go with Chrissy, so there really wasn't that much drama to be had in this show. We also all suspected it would indeed be a Healer that went. But, Ben goes from 2 to 6 confessionals, that places him at risk.

The second star of the show was Michel's numero uno, Cole. He was the boot decoy, and he was without an idol. They gave Cole 5 confessionals. First one was about how much he trusted his new group of the Yawa 5, Ben's a great guy and Lauren, he thinks they are going to stick with them. Then, if they could get Joe and Desi back!

2nd: He usually eats 8000 calories/day, now he's starving, now there is Outback Steak House, if S. is a Mtn. then he feels that he is more than halfway, that's how to conquer a mtn, one step at a time.

3rd. The goal was to get to the merge and now that we have gotten here it feels like we have been given new life. Itís a start over. We have hammers now, multiple machetes, see Ben chopping away (a good sign heíll chop some folks!), we even have these massive nails to build a great shelter. See JP, putting fronds on the roof.
....but at this point in the game all bets are off. People are gonna be out for themselves so the thought crossed my mind that I should be looking for some kind of a clue or advantage.
See him looking than pull a nail out, and we see the clue right in with the nails, but he doesnít. (Just another example of what a ďdumbĒ player Cole is edited to be. Will he be the goat that gets to the end? ) But, I couldnít find anything, but I feel that I need to keep actively looking just because people are going to be with other people now, talking a lot. (see Desi, plotting and strategizing and trying to build new alliances, see Joe)

4th: He's now experiencing Survivor paranoia, but just like when your gear fails and you fall from the top to the bottom, I have to trust my gear and my gear is my alliance, he's praying it keeps his Survivor life going.

5th: He's very worried, rubbed Ben the wrong way with his eating habits, he's trying to find a way out of the trouble...goes to apologize.

Cole: Cole is playing recklessly, and he's not observant or in tune to the people around him. The editing underlines what a poor player he is. Clearly remains in the crosshairs, he's a physical threat, without an idol. At risk.
The big spike in confessionals is also a big red flag.

Next up is Devon with 4 confessionals. We all know how they love to give confessionals to those that underline how difficult Survivor is....Devon's first confessional is intriguing...

Iím running on empty, there is not a single calorie left in my body that is brain feels dead and every single one of my limbs feels like it weighs a 1000 pounds. This game is a lot more serious than I thought. And, going in to the next RC, if I donít get this win, I donít know? I donít know what I am going to do.....confessional ends with a shot of Devon laying flat out on the beach arms spread open....(Reminds me of all the Jesus comparisons with Ethan in Africa?) Then the camera pans out on the spread out Devon, right over top of him. Then cut to the challenge, and we see Devon carrying the banner, (the CROSS). It was very obvious to me, the religious association. Wonder what that means for Devon? Just saying.

His second was with him holding his big beer mug, OMG, I am in just perfect bliss right now...(see Jessica, Cole, and Desi toasting.) To make the merge is such an accomplishment and to go from such a low this morning, see Chrissy and Ryan toasting, and to be with all these amazing people and then to eat this Outback. Itís just such happiness, I feel like a King, man! This is the life! See Joe ordering...2!

3rd: This one is also narrational for him...he looks around and feels the strongest made it to the merge. But, the healers and heroes have seen themselves as a threat this whole game, but, as we see him telling Lauren, that puts the hustlers in a good spot. The hustlers have been flying under the radar, with all their trips to TC, which puts them in the good spot. We see him tell Lauren, don't let anyone know what you are going to do, he tells her, "Us 7, take out the 5!".

Then we see Devon, Chrissy, Ben at the water hole. Devon has his final confessional: Joe knows how to play the game which makes him a threat to others, and Cole is a big physical threat, if he does end up losing the first immunity challenge it would be a good time for him to go.

Devon is mostly narrating. But, with a spike from 1 to 4, he's at RISK.

Chrissy, Ryan, Jessica, and Mike all had 3 confessionals.

Once again, Chrissy has the first confessional of the show. Could be significant, it's as though Chrissy's opinion dictates the show. First: I think I have been dominating the social game, I play 24 hours a day, both guys closer to me than they are to each other, I'm set up for a nice future run in this game.

Second: Joe, so glad I have not played the game with him so far, he's obnoxious and loud.

Her third was a long, drawn out confessional cut multiple times by letting us see the action...Right now the decision is either Cole or Joe. The tricky part is we donít know if either of them has an idol.....I would be agreeable in voting for Jessica out because we think that Joe might have an idol or give an idol to Cole, and I think itís unlikely that Jessica has an idol. Plus, Jessica and Cole have gotten very tight and we want to split them up. Iíve been applying for this show for 16 years, so I am a student of this game enough to know that Tribal is live and that people do change their vote. I just hope that I am on the right side of it tonight.

Chrissy, although she was a target this week, is at slight risk with only one rise in confessionals. But, really, I think she's safe. Interesting that she's called out for being loud herself, by Ben, and she's reckless herself by responding at the IC to Jeff's math questions.

I thought it was great that Chrissy is recognized as threatening, by Mike!

Ryan: He's excited, his tribe was down to 3, a disaster, now this is the playoffs, this is what you dream of. (Reactionary)

Second: Waiting to talk to Devon, like 2 old friends; suggests the Hero/Hustler alliance, 3 hustlers, and he's tight with 2 the merge vote is like the cream of the crop of Survivor. This decides who is going to dictate the rest of the game. And, a Hustler doesnít wait, (see Ryan AND Devon), a Hustler goes and makes alliances. At the end of the confessional, the camera zooms in on Ryan, as we hear some rapid percussion, like a snake rattle.

Third: Going into a merge vote, it is of great importance to take out a threat. There are so many threats out there, (see Cole, then JP), so now is the time for this Hustler and Hero alliance to come together and try and take out the healer tribe.

Ryan is safe for the next episode. Ryan looked more like a follower than a leader in this episode, yet told us his thoughts.

Jessica had 3 confessionals in her boot episode. Her first was flirting with the Outback Steakhouse waiter, and she's a virgin and tries to act holy and moral, but at the end of he conf. she is optimistic that her nuYawa 5 will stick together and reign in Joe and Desi.

Next, she's spoken with Desi and she's happy to know they are still working together and she feels like a Queen Bee right now. The last one was about Cole, she needs him hear so she will have a chat with him.

Jessica is out because I think she lacked social awareness as well. The couple is split.

Mike also has 3 confessionals. He's the one that Lauren and Ben like the most from the nuYawa tribe, so he could have hope in this game for a while, and there is the fact that he has the HII, and Jessica, the only one who knew about it is gone.

Mike was in full diplomat mode this episode, trying to ensure Ben would stay with them.

First: Lauren tells me immediately that Devon wants to get out all of the healers.
Lauren tells Mike as they walk off, I made a vow to you, MIke.
Mike continues: I am concerned that the healers could be ganged up upon by the original heroes and hustlers. But, the reality is that we are still 5 healers strong, plus I am strong with Lauren and I am strong with Ben, so the line is being drawn in the sand and I expect a war. As he throws the bamboo that he dragged in...

Second: Mike tells us that the nuYawa was 5 strong but now Ben is wavering, and that post merge dynamics are nothing that he thought they would be, he thought he'd be the only one playing the game but as it turns out everyone is playing the game.

Third: Mike is the one that targets Chrissy...The first person that needs to go is Chrissy because you gotta get out the really smart ones, see Chrissy walking alone on the beach. They can trick people. So, tonight we will be 5 healers strong against Chrissy. Itís Chrissy and I think I can trust Lauren to vote with us. Lauren came to us and we all became tight, so now it is 6 people.

Mike seems smart but if he were a really savvy player he would have gone to Ben and told him to choose the target, and they would follow.

Mike's arc has peaked at 3, which is not a good sign, but he'll be at slight risk because he does have an idol.

Lauren and Joe have 2 confessionals each. Lauren is starting a story arc, while Joe is in the midst of one.

Lauren tells us what the plan is, to take out the healers, but that is not good for her, she's with the Healers and she really likes Dr. Mike. See her tell Dr. Mike the plan. Her next confessional: Ben and I, weíve been together since Yawa and he was the only one from heroes and I was the only one from Hustlers, but now WE are really in the middle. She's speaking about her own predicament.

Lauren is beginning a new arc, but she went with the majority so I would say she's safe at this point.

Joe, OTOH, found an idol 2 episodes ago, then hastily got rid of it in the last episode. He is seriously at risk. First he's thrilled about the merge, he's 5 strong with the healers while every other group has less numbers, and besides, he's got the idol. Next, he's telling us what a strong player he is, when it comes to strategy, and that people are terrified of him. He notes that Ben is playing both sides and that his tribe has been compromised. But, at TC, if he's feeling the heat, he'll play his idol.

Joe at least does see the forest through the trees, he sees plainly that Ben will not stay with them, while the others trust. But, Joe has antagonized Chrissy, so most likely his number is up, soon!

Ashley has 1 confessional: Tells us about how tough it is and if they don't get food soon they will be in serious trouble. Survivor is no joke, We are not joking when we say if we donít get food today, we might die.

They always love it when the DAWS underline how tough the game is. Out of all the DAWS, I think that Ashley is one of the safest for now. She's quiet, she's a soldier, a number and she's in the majority. And, her confessionals are steady.

Flying under the radar: Surprise: JP and Desi. Poor Desi wins the first IC and doesn't get a confessional to talk about it. Not a good sign. Both JP and Desi are at slight risk for being "surprise" boots.

Post confessional analysis prediction:

Safe: Ashley, Ryan, Lauren

Slight Risk: Chrissy, Mike, JP, Desi

Risk: Ben, Cole, Devon, Joe

Devon and Ben are in the majority, Cole and Joe are on the targeted healer tribe. But, will an HII or secret advantage tip the scale another way, perhaps? If the secret advantage is maneuvered and the underdogs get a win, who would they most target? Ben? Devon?

But, isn't this game panning out to wwcd?

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11-15-17, 01:25 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the merge"
Thanks FlowerPower! Amazing job!

"But, isn't this game panning out to wwcd?"

What Would Cole Do?

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11-15-17, 09:57 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the merge"
I was wondering what wwcd meant?! But now that you've given me the key, I think FP meant: "What would Chrissy do?"

Nice job, FP. I'm using your "at risk" for my office game!
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11-15-17, 04:15 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the merge"
Michel "What would Chrissy do?"

Yeah I knew that's what FP meant.
I was just making joking with FP since there are two C name left.

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20. "RE: Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the merge"
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21. "RE: Episode 7 Confessionals ~ the merge"
I often get the jokes a day late! That's why I watch the episodes twice!
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11-21-17, 10:08 PM (EST)
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22. "Confessionals Episode 8"
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-17 AT 08:04 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-21-17 AT 10:09†PM (EST)

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 27
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 24
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 2 | 4 | 17
Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 15
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 15
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 13
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 11
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11
Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 8X
JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 5

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X
F14 Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X
F13 Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

Ben takes center stage again, as he and Joe go head to head. A rivalry indeed. I feel that the conflict between them has come to a head and most likely will be resolved this week.

Interesting that in Ben's first confessional he acknowledges his and Lauren's plan was put in to play and executed well to get "their" target out. He then ponders if he could keep the reigns of this Hero/Hustler group and get them to the final 7, he will. But, he's worried about the individual part because an individual could mess all of this up! Then we see Joe illuminated by the firelight. Is this foreshadowing, or misdirection? We learn later that he will not be successful at getting rid of Joe this does make me think that Joe may get Ben out, and then quickly follow? Hmmmm?

Second confessional was about Cole digging his own grave, don't want enemies to know you have the idol...he hates Cole, if he's got the idol, everyone needs to know, he doesn't care, he'll blow his game out. (Ben doing the same thing to Cole as Joe does to Ben...hmmmm?)

Third: Cole won immunity, now think we need to split the votes. Joe, dangerous to find another idol, and Desi is a physical and mental strength...

Fourth: After Ben spies on Joe trashing Ben to Devon and Ryan: Just like he thought, Joe is trying to put a target on Ben's back, he doesn't like that guy.

Fifth: Joe pushed the right button, I'm all about the Marines and would never swear on them, I live with stuff every day and some putz like that telling others I swore on them pi$$es him off.

Sixth: After Lauren tells him about the SA. It's a blessing and a curse, he's worried Joe has another idol, have to split the votes so need to get a healer on board with us.

Final: If the split and healer with them doesn't work, he may be screwed. Russian roulette and hopes the hammer doesn't come down on him.

Joe, Ryan, and Cole all had 4 confessionals. We will start with Joe, as this is a pinnacle for him. His rivalry coming to a head with Ben. He got the first confessional of the show....he knew they wanted the Healers down to 4, but didn't see it as Jess...she was blindsided, and as a fan, he appreciated it.

Second: After the reward challenge: Right now I do have a target on my back so I need to make adjustments to my game so this is a great opportunity to improve my game and make better alliances....I put myself last because I didnít want to put an additional target on my back. Right now, who has the power is the hustlers, I have a decent relationship with Devon so I gave him first dibs on eating. I feel like if I can develop a better relationship with devon, thatís going to benefit me definitely in the long run...

Third: With Cole off the chopping block they are probably gonna vote me out. I still have angles to play because at this point itís 4 healers, 4 heroes and itís a matter of who can sway the hustlers.

Fourth was about instigating the fight with Ben...Ben came up to me real cocky and confident and I didnít like it. So, Iím thinking heís always saying, ďIím a marineĒ, this and that, so I told him, you are going around swearing on your marine, he said, heís never done that, maybe I said you didnít swear on yoru marine, but I donít think it really mattered. I know I am in trouble so I gotta do what I can to blow up this game.

Joe hates Ben, Ben hates Joe....

Ryan had 4 confessionals: First was about spaghetti is great but he's looking for an idol clue. Finds it, it's very direct, and he needs to hide the plate with the clue. He's been looking for more than 20 days, and now he knows right where it is, he'd never be able to swallow it if he can't get this one.

Second was about him finding the right time to get it, and then notes Cole goes to pee, and he seizes the moment. Then we see him go dig it up.

Third: He's standing there with the little idol down his shorts and pandemonium is breaking out in front of him. No one really knew what was going on, except him.

Fourth was his reaction to what Joe pitched to him regarding Ben...he's right, if Ben gets to the F3 he will win, and he doesn't want to take him, but voting him out now would betray Chrissy, now is not the right time.

First three confessionals were about finding the idol, last was narrational.

Cole was one of the targets, and he got 4 confessionals: First...I think JP and Devon may have had a little more than their share but Iím going to do the same thing. I know I am on the bottom so Iím gonna get back at all these people that stabbed me in the back and eat as much as I want, he sees the clue. Thereís writing on the bottom of the plate. It says that you have an idol buried under the tribe flag. So, I am thinking that I may be the first person to see this clue. I know I needed to find some way to hide this clue from everyone. I decided to use an apron that was covering up the bread and tried to make it look as natural as possible.

Second: Chrissy and Ryan were definitely whispering about the clue, there is nothing else that they would be whispering about. I could definitely beat out Chrissy and Ryan in a digging contest so if push comes to shove, Iím gonna push and shove there and I donít feel bad at all about fighting for the idol.

Third: Itís like a complete disaster at this point. Everyone thinks that I have an idol, but I donít have an idol. I feel like I am in big trouble, so letting people think that I have the idol at this point is all I have left, unless I can win immunity. That would be a game changer for me.

Final: the Immunity challenge was the bomb. I have new life I am so excited to be her tonight, I was getting pretty bummed out, I was thinking I was leaving win that challenge definitely put me on top of the world. However, at this point I definitely think the healers are a sinking ship right now, and if we donít do something soon we are going to be in a bad, bad place.

Cole is shown once again to not be the brightest bulb on the Survivor tree. He didn't think to get rid of the plate, that idol would have been his! He knew, he heard them whispering so he knew they knew about the idol, and the first thing he does is go away to pee....ugh. He's lucky he's physically strong, I'm just waiting for a puzzle to come along and Cole will be toast.

Lauren and Chrissy both had 2 confessionals. Lauren began with her finding the SA: this morning I reached into where the nails were and picked out a little peice of paper rolled up really tight. Itís a hidden clue or something, ya know? This has been there since we merged. And, then I was trying to make sure that nobody was paying me any attention. My heart started beating probably 150 beats per second. She reads: ďCongratulations, you have found a secret advantage in the game. This advantage allows you to secretly not vote at the next TC. And, instead, save your vote for use at a future TC, hereís how it works.
Continues in conf: When it is your time to vote do not write down a name, instead, secretly place this note inside the voting urn and take a blank voting parchment instead, with you. Then, I will get to vote twice. The hard part is going to be getting this paper into the urn in front of 20 other people. I need to make sure that no one sees me do it, because that could blow up my whole game.

Next, I decided to tell Ben about the secret advantage, because if I play it and donít vote, then it would be 3 votes Joe, 3 votes Desi and the Healers could use their 4 votes and vote out one of us, then continues....I am solid with Ben, however, Iím playing this game for myself and for my daughter, and having that extra vote, it could get me to the F3. I gotta make a big decision.

Chrissy: First was about her being a student of the game and finding the clue at the reward, she thinks she is the first one to see it and hopes Ryan will find it too. I cannot help but think she's dumber than Cole. She should have hidden it too, she didn't even try to hide it somewhere else.

Her second confessional: It totally sucks that Cole won immunity. But, the Hustlers and the heroes still have 3 other Healers to choose from, so we have to figure out which one of those 3 goes next.

Devon, Mike, Desi, and JP all had one confessional.

Devon's confessional came at the start of the reward, as he went first...When I walked into the reward I felt like there was a little pressure on me being the first...knowing that everyone else is counting on me to set the bar on how much we are going to eat...He is shoveling it ALL in....
continues: OH man, I am so happy right now, this is insane! Shoving each bite into my face but I felt that I was fair, I mean I might of eaten a little more, for sure, but when there is that much food, itís hard to stop.
He missed the clue.

Mike's confessional: For some reason, Ben feels that he needs me to vote out Joe. It doesnít make sense. I donít know what is going on. But, if I show my allegience to Ben, this could be my moment to get off the bottom. At the same time, this could be a perfect opportunity to take out the biggest threat in this game, and thatís Ben.

Interesting that Mike labels Ben as the biggest threat in the game....he and Cole ended up voting for Joe, I think, so Mike jumped.

Des's confessional was that Joe had good instincts for this game, but she could have a target on her back.

JP's confessional came at the RC, he clearly didn't see the clue. "Clueless"

Ashley flew under the radar.

This week, here is how I see it with the confessionals:

Safe: Lauren, Chrissy, Devon, Mike, Ryan *I have to say though, that Ryan could be in trouble as he's really not playing well with telling people that they are the only confidants he has and then telling others. Chrissy knows, Ben will know, Devon will know....nothing more would make me happier to see Ryan get blindsided at the next TC! But, alas, I don't think it will happen.
Slight Risk: JP (he had a rise of 1 confessional, it could be the beginning of his final arc?), Ashley is at slight risk because she was under the radar, so could be a surprise boot.
At risk: Ben, Joe, Cole I thought about listing Cole at slight risk, but that's too risky!

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michel2 2432 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-17, 11:30 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Confessionals Episode 8"
I have to agree with you, FP. I'm in a pool with people at RHAP and I divided my 20 points on Ben, Cole and Joe.
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11-22-17, 04:17 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Confessionals Episode 8"
Michel "divided my 20 points" sounds like Fun Office Pools. I know the Tribe Podcast used to (still does?) has a Fun Office Pool but I didn't know RHAP has one too!
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11-28-17, 08:31 AM (EST)
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25. "Confessionals Episode 9 "
LAST EDITED ON 11-28-17 AT 09:02 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 11-28-17 AT 08:39†AM (EST)

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 29
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 28
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 2 | 4 | 3 | 20
Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18X
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 18
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 14
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 13
JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 5

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X
F14 Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X
F13 Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15X
F12 Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 8X
F11 Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

This week there were only 21 confessionals in the entire show, which is a low number. So, for the most part, everyone's confessionals dropped in number with the exception of Chrissy, Mike, and Ashley. These players are beginning an arc, but is it their final arc?

Ben had 4 confessionals, the most in the show. His story arc is declining, but, he still has the most confessionals. His first confessional is well after the RC, after Ryan confides to him regarding the HII. If Ryan has the idol....I couldnít be more ecstatic at this time...because now I know that Cole doesnít have it! And, information is key in this game. So, all this trust getting put into me is going to help me later in the game too. His confessional is interrupted by them shown walking and Ben telling Ryan...And, I am not going to say anything to anyone about this...thatís all on you.
He goes on to finish, But, this proves that Ryan is out here to play and win a million dollars, but now I will have to keep an eye on that because right now this 7 has to stick together.

We heard Ben telling Ryan he would keep it secret, yet we see him later use that key information to his advantage when he tells Devon. Interesting that Ryan used the information to get Ben to "trust" him, yet his dismissed that Ben could use that information against him. Ryan's flaw in this game seems to be underestimating his opponents. First Devon, now Ben.

His second confessional is in regard to recruiting Devon to play the game with...Iím aligned with Lauren but, I am gonna need to trust someone to come on board with Lauren and I, to help us cause Iím thinking more about the fact that Ryan has an idol and thatís pretty dangerous.....I chose Devon because Devon just has a good soul. He really does, heís got a good heart. I want him to trust me and I want him on my side.

His third is after Lauren beats Cole in the IC...Ole Lauren pulled it out and beat Cole. I couldnít be happier cause itís very important that Cole didnít win immunity today because Cole is the biggest immunity challenge threat here. Weíre getting the main target out, our hard target but there is a big fear about the hidden immunity idol, so that is what we just canít place all our votes on one healer. So, we have to split the votes into a 4 and 3.

His forth comes after Chrissy is trying to convince him to throw the votes onto Joe rather than Mike...I am not trying to be a dictator but for my game, I donít want Joe gone because everybody already canít stand the guy. Fortunately, some people are playing with their heart and their morals and in Survivor, heart and morals donít get you a million dollars. ***

Sounds like a million dollar quote. I find this statement somewhat ironic coming from Ben, the ex-marine that struggles with his emotions in the game, as we saw Joe push his buttons. Sure, he apologized at TC, but well after the fact. But, Joe is able to identify his problem, and he still chooses to keep Joe around.

Joe, Chrissy, and Mike all had 3 confessionals.

Joe's first was after the RC, he was happy to win and get away and eat, but his main focus was on "the window of opportunity to make moves and completely change the game."

His next confessional underlines the circumstances, alliance of 7, 3 healers on the bottom, he has no control and he's in trouble, but he's always in trouble and somehow he's always stuck around. See him cutting the cake to search the plate for a HII clue. He likes playing 100 mph, he's not giving up, he's an aggressive player, has been since day 1, will continue, could end up costing him the game, but that's him.

His final confessional is when he is continuing to search for an idol that may not be there. He won't give up. Right now he will get people so upset with him that they will dismiss him, they can get rid of him anytime, so at some point he can make a move.

Chrissy's first confessional was the first one on the reward, when she speaks about being happy to be on the reward, even though she would rather be there with her alliance, she's still glad because she can control the conversation.

Her next confessional is before she starts to talk to Ben about the logic of throwing votes on Mike rather than Joe...she's been voting with Ben since day one, but now you cannot ask questions.

Her last confessional is the last confessional of the show....interesting how she usually begins the confessionals at the start of the show, or ends them!
At this point itís become Benís way or the highway. I know there is a game strategy and the game strategy says get Cole out first, get Joe out second. But, frankly there is no bigger strategic threat than Joe, see Joe with the fire in front of him, building fire, and, I know this is not Benís plan, but I believe that Ashley feels this way as well. There are a lot of threats left in this game, see Lauren with the IN on, see Ryan, see Devon, see Ashley, now we need to decide what to do.

I loved how Chrissy noted there were a lot more threats in the game and the editing pointed them out! Is our winner among them?

Mike jumps up 2 more confessionals to 3, starting an arc, is it his last? He did get the first confessional of the show: My tc experience was again, me not knowing who was going home. I voted for the person I was supposed to vote for but Desi went home. Iím not happy about it. Cause, it looks like the group of 7 is just going to stay together and vote off the healers. So, at this point I need to throw the other healers under the bus. Subtly or not so subtly, I need to start throwing names out there and maybe I can be here for a few more days...I have an idol, but I donít want to play it. So, Iím throwing names out there right now, knowing that Joe and Cole are so hated on this tribe, there gonna be one of 2 people to go next.

His next confessional comes late in the show after he asked Ben who to vote for at TC...Iím safe for tonights TC, if I could believe Ben. But, how much can I trust Ben? I canít. Every person that I have trusted has betrayed my trust. So, Iím not playing their game. I gotta do something to send one of these big threats home. See Cole get up and start walking away.

HIs final confessional: The Hustlers and Heroes mentality is just playing for the next TC. And, itís stupid, so because of that I am going to make their world implode and playing my idol. Eenie, meanie, miney, moe, who am I going to give it to? It might be high drama tonight! Itís go big or go home time!

As we saw later, he did get one of Joe/Cole out, but going big would have been targeting Ben. Fail. Mike's inability to "play big" will kill him in this game.

Ryan, Cole, and Ashley all had 2 confessionals. Ryan.

Ryan is feeling cocky about finding the idol...Iím really proud of myself so far because I found the idol underneath the flag. Itís fine, it will be in my pants going to TC.....he continues: Usually, if somebody has an idol, you keep your cards close to your vest. But, Devon really trusts me so I had to tell my boy, Devon. Love how he knows Survivor rules and yet he doesn't apply them to himself....he continues: I know that Devon will never tell anybody that I have an immunity idol. See Devon say, I appreciate you telling me, Ryan continues in confessional: I am making him dependent on me a little bit, and that dependency is carrying me into the end.

Ryan thinks his is making him dependent on him. His next one is about trying to develop trust by divulging he has the idol...I wanted the experience of being on the yacht, but at the end of the day you gotta move on and I have the opportunity to talk to Ben, because I am trying to build as many relationships and maximize my advantages that I have. See them walking together into the woods.....To get further in this game I need to let people know that I am telling them the truth... Ryan thinks that by choosing to tell Ben that he has an idol will make Ben trust him more...he never once thought the information could be used against him. Fatal flaw, once again Ryan is seen underestimating his competition.

Cole's 2 confessionals told us that he's only lost one challenge the entire game and that with food he's more likely to win the next challenge, and that he's disappointed that he lost the challenge but he's hoping that hate Joe more than him.

Ashley also had 2 confessionals, rebounding after being under the radar last episode. She's starting to be in the play. Her first confessional tells us how fed up with Joe she is, he's like a bully, he's getting under Chrissy's skin and she's pitching getting rid of Joe at the next round table meeting because he's just so unpleasant to be around.

Then, Iím pissed. Joe, is like a rat! You take your eye off him for one second and heís off trying to find another idol and Secret advantages. Heís very dangerous and I think that we are all just sick of him and he needs to go....Ben told me to vote Cole because heís a huge physical threat Iím super annoyed, I donít need to be told what to do right now. Iím going to be doing everything I can to have people vote Joe, because I canít be the only one weighing these options in my head right now.

So, we are all curious about the next show when we see a preview of Ashley stating she wants to talk to Mike and Joe....hmmmm?

The two hustlers, Lauren and Devon each had one confessional. Lauren reacts to her getting the SA: I have the secret advantage and I played it, and I think I played it very well, nobody caught on to it, I got away with it, the SA is in play, which is super exciting for me because now I have 2 votes ...At this point the only person that knows about the secret advantage is Ben. And, so far heís not let me down, and Iíve not let him down and keeping him involved in it keeps us as two, together.

Ryan trusted Lauren is trusting Ben too.

Devon's confessional is reactionary...This game just got real complicated because Ryanís been telling me that
nobody else knows but Ryanís been going around to other people and telling them the same thing....
But, Devon is going to do something about it...weíve been playing this game together since day one. I wanted to go to the final three with Ryan, but I am going to move on and Iím going to play this game with Ben and I am going to have to make some big moves coming up...

Devon is the second player that states he's been playing the game with someone since day one....Devon said it in regard to Ryan, and Chrissy said she's been voting with Ben since day one. Interesting.

JP with a goose egg, which does indeed set him up at risk for being the surprise boot.

Safe: Lauren, Devon
Slight risk: Ben, Chrissy, Ashley
At risk: JP, Mike, Joe, Ryan

JP is a non-entity in regard to the editing. He's very competitive, and will be the next very physical threat. He's solidly in the old Heroes camp with Chrissy and Ashley. Mike has been good at picking out threats, Chrissy then Ben, but he's not a savvy player, as he exemplified at the last tribal council. Ryan had a drop in confessionals, and last week we saw him discounting Ben in revealing to him that he had the idol. He could be a surprise boot.

I almost feel like putting Joe at slight risk, but there are 2 hours of Survivor and the confessional prediction really is a tool for the next boot.

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11-29-17, 07:50 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Confessionals Episode 9 "
Thanks Flowerpower!


After Ep1 At Risk: Ashley, Joe, Jessica, Simone
After Ep2 At Risk: Lauren, Patrick, Joe
After Ep3 At Risk: Joe, Ryan, Lauren, Jessica, Alan
After Ep4 At Risk: Joe, Ashley, Roark
After Ep5 At Risk: Ali, Joe, Ashley, Cole, JP
After Ep6 At Risk: Cole, JP, Ben (Safe: Jessica)
After Ep7 At Risk: Ben, Cole, Devon, Joe (Slight Risk: Desi)
After Ep8 At Risk: Ben, Joe, Cole

After Ep9 At risk: JP, Mike, Joe, Ryan (Double Episode)

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11-30-17, 03:09 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Confessionals Episode 9 "
Update After Week 10 Double Episode

You nailed it again FlowerPower!

After Ep1 At Risk: Ashley, Joe, Jessica, Simone
After Ep2 At Risk: Lauren, Patrick, Joe
After Ep3 At Risk: Joe, Ryan, Lauren, Jessica, Alan
After Ep4 At Risk: Joe, Ashley, Roark
After Ep5 At Risk: Ali, Joe, Ashley, Cole, JP
After Ep6 At Risk: Cole, JP, Ben (Safe: Jessica)
After Ep7 At Risk: Ben, Cole, Devon, Joe (Slight Risk: Desi)
After Ep8 At Risk: Ben, Joe, Cole
After Ep9 At risk: JP, Mike, Joe, Ryan (Double Episode)

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12-06-17, 09:05 AM (EST)
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28. "Confessionals Episode10 & 11"

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | 10| total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 31
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 31
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 22
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 20
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 20
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 17
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 16
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 15
JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | 5X

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X
F14 Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X
F13 Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15X
F12 Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 8X
F11 Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18X
F10 JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | 5X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

Since we have 2 episodes, I will just comment on the numbers of the confessionals and who we can see was at risk for the next episode - 11.

Ryan, Mike, and Ashley were all stable with the same number of confessionals that they had in the previous episode.

Ben, Joe, and Chrissy all had a drop in confessionals by one. Interesting to note that our boot for the next episode was in this group. With a decline in confessionals preceding his boot, it's a "hidden" boot. However, as one of the two remaining healers left, he was constant danger.

Devon increased his count by 1. He is beginning a new story arc, perhaps, as we see him newly aligned with Ben. He comments on Lauren's strategic game play and then on how Chrissy and Ryan are letting the "power" blind them. He and his alliance have to change that.

This was Lauren's episode with jumping from 1 confessional to 4. She won the RC and then chose who she wanted to come with her and then we saw how she adjoined all of them and how it was sealed with the letters from home. Lauren demonstrated that she is a player. She's also thinking steps ahead, and she has the SA still in play. I would say that a jump in confessionals like that could indicate her final story arc, perhaps?

JP, continued with no confessionals, a hidden boot.

Now, onto part 2, episode 11:

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | 10| 11| total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 34
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 35
Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 25X
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 24
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 22
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 21
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 19
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X
F14 Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X
F13 Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15X
F12 Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 8X
F11 Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18X
F10 JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | 5X
F9 Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 25X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

Devon had a breakout episode, as Lauren did last week. He jumped from 2 confessionals to 5. He first tells us that when Ryan lied about him and he being the only ones that knew about the idol it caused him to no longer trust him. They've been aligned since day 1, it's a selfish game and Ryan is no longer a part of him getting to the end.

Next one came when speaking with Ben...and he's starting to feel in the position of power: He knows it all, Ben is their secret agent, he knows where the idol is, and where the advantages are, and he knows what every single player is thinking. Boot will be between either Chrissy or Joe. Then the arrogance really starts: for the first time in this game, I am calling the shots. And, I donít think anyone knows that I am as good at this game than I am. So, I am sitting in the best possible seat in this game.

His third confessional is in regard to the reward: The reward is amazing, I mean to have a spa day, shower, and get massages. Eat wraps, itís like hitting a restart button on your body. But, there is still strategy in mind so Ben is still playing the role of the dethroned king and Joe is still eating it up. We see him try on Ben's hat...

4th confessional is narrational: My alliance of 4 is going to vote Joe, now we have to come up with this whole new pitch to tell Mike...I come up with this idea to split the votes between Ryan and Ben, but the reality is myself, Lauren, Ashley, and Ben will vote for Joe, and Joe will go home.

His final confessional is the last one of the episode before TC, This vote is not an easy one. But, I realize Ben is a big threat and I need to make big moves in this game and be ruthless. But, I have to be smart, and make the right decision. OMG!

Did he make the right decision?

Chrissy has a jump from 2 to 4 confessionals, she and Ryan were blindsided with the vote out of JP, and she's feeling as though she is on the bottom, but is rejuvenated with winning the IN. Her first confessional was the first one of the episode...she was upset about the blindside but more upset the way they treated her when they got back to camp, clearly they are not friends, whatever!

Next, She thinks that Ryan, she and Ben are the next ones to go, Lauren does have the fate of Chrissy in her hands, but I tried to open a conversation with her, and she's not having it. She doesn't want to be seen as desperate, but that's how she is feeling. The game is kicking her butt, and it's a new feeling for her, she doesn't want to be voted off.

Next was after she woke up in the AM, before the IC, and she needed a hug...she goes on to explain how it's hard for her, in her world she's in control of her own fate, that's why this game kicks your a$$. It's been her dream for 16 an actuary she comes up with all the possible outcomes, and that is what she is doing constantly in the game...she hopes she can have the last laugh.

Her last one is of perseverance, post IC...I am invulnerable, I finally won a individual immunity challenge....I really needed it for tonight, I really believed that I was gonna go home. So, coming home with this necklace is just beautiful in so many ways.

Ben also had 4 confessionals, up 1 from last week. His first: Mike and Joe are pretty much in the dark of me working with Ashley, Devon, and Lauren, but Joeís walking around like it was his damn idea, you know? To blindside JP....I should get an award for the performance I put on when we got back from camp. Iím doing my best double agent, whatever you want to call it. Iím playing a role of being on the outs with Chrissy and Ryan to gather intel but really I have my alliance of four with Lauren, Devon, and Ashley.
This gave us the upper hand, now Ryan and Chrissy are at the bottom...

His second: Itíd be nice to kick back with Devon and Ashley but, Iím still playing my part of being on the outs but that is kind of fun for me right now just cause Iím kind of messing with Joe and he donít even know it. Any time I can mess with Joe, Iíll take it.

His third one was a comment about it's okay that Chrissy won the IC, there are still 3 people to choose from...just need to pick one.

Finally: This acting is a little exhausting but itís for a good cause at this point. I just need to get through one more tribal. Just play the poor me, why me card. And, then everybody knows....I still have an idol but I donít feel the need to play it. For tonight to actually happen the way itís supposed to happen.

Ryan and Joe both move from 2 to 3 confessionals. First we have Ryan's reaction from being on top to being on the bottom: I try to be very gracious, I said good move, way to play everybody, but I Ďm infuriated. Iím not....see Lauren tell him, youíre fine Ryan....itís new for me, being on the bottom. I really need to think how I am going to recover from this.

Next, I never thought Iíd have to repair my trust with Ryan...Devon and I have been together since day 1, I have given him every single ounce of information that I have had in this game and he blindsided me. He could have sent me home.

He is still crying the blues later...I feel like nothing is going my way, I canít win a veggie wrap! Thatís how bad things are going right now and I have an idol in my pocket. I donít want to play it once and then just go home the next time, so I need to work with Mike, if we could show that we could work together, weíve both been left out of votes, both been on the bottom, I think it would endear us to each other. Maybe, just maybe I could swing him over and have the numbers back on our side.

Joe's confessionals were exuding confidence over his "new alliance"...1. felt confident that we were going to win and we did. And, now I have a complete alliance, the tables have completely turned, itís time to eat and get a massage.
2. Ben has been the leader of his pack since the beginning and now heís at the bottom and he doesnít know how to play this game without power and control. He wants to talk about the game, obviously, and we are like dude, we are not going to talk about it. Now he knows how I felt.
3. This is absolutely amazing, Lauren has an advantage which gives her the ability to actually vote twice. So, right now I am ecstatic, just knowing that that extra vote is going to be used.

All served to set up his blindside.

Lauren drops from her peak episode of 4 to 2 confessionals. First: I expected Chrissy to try and come and talk strategy with me, but thatís as far as it goes. Sheís very annoying. I mean I will listen to you all day long but that doesnít mean I will go with you...If you wanted to talk to me, then you would have talked to me several weeks ago and not just today. Iíve jumped ship once, see Ryan and mike return, and Iím not gonna jump ship again. Iím staying in the same boat.

Next, Timing is everything in this game and it could be the time to vote Ben out, because he has made big decisions and heís been the king in his round table and all that stuff.

Mike goes from 3 to 2. First, Mike reacts to Ryan asking to work with him...When you look at where I was 3 tribals ago and where I am today from the bottom to the top and now I have a nice alliance of 5 and we have a plan to work together and, Iím sticking to that plan.

Next, Mike talks about Ben: I am excited to see Ben go home because honestly he is the biggest threat out here now. He will do anything to win this game. And, Ben has betrayed me multiple times. Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me. Iím not going to let Ben fool me....I went up to Ryan at least everyday for a week and said, Letís work together. And, he said no....He said right before TC, he wasnít voting for me. He voted for me, and then he has the nerve to come up the next day and say to me: Mike, Iíve always wanted to work with you. And, Iím like well, isnít it a buck late and a dollar short?

Mike bought the new alliance hook, line and sinker. Then he bad mouths Ben and Ryan, as they have betrayed him. How will he react to his new alliance betraying him by voting out Joe? Will he pull a Christy?

Ashley is stable with 2 confessionals for the last 3 episodes. First she comments about Ben: Benís still putting on his performance as a very disappointed king Arthur and he sells it like iíve never seen a story sold. Itís awesome. But, heís playing a really good game and that is pretty scary. Sounds like we are seeing the seeds of a conspiracy against Ben. She continues...I feel like this game just upped to a whole noter level for me and up to the merge I definitely took a back seat to my game but now itís really evolved and I feel like I am finally playing Survivor. We are seeing confidence and power....then finally she concludes with more conspiracy with confidence...Making that big move set the pace for some really big moves ahead. (see Ben getting out of the shower. ) It makes me feel like this is my game to lose.

Her next confessional: Right now itís me, Ben, Lauren and Devon and right now we are voting out Joe, but it seems like Ben would be a huge threat at the end and in this game you have to be aggressive and I am starting to do that....All of the stronger players, is that they make moves. Ben could go home tonight, this could be our chance to make that happen.

Then, we see her ask Devon about it...

This past week ended with a blindside of Joe, which should alienate Mike. So that would seemingly leave Chrissy, Ryan, Mike vs. Ben, Devon, Lauren, Ashley. But, I have to mention that we see Ben over hearing Lauren, Devon, and Ashley at the water well. What does he hear? Could be that Ben is in the middle. So, I have to wonder if he will flip to Chrissy, Ryan, Mike, and play double agent with Devon, Lauren, and Ashley. Lauren has an extra vote, and Ben knows it. That has to put a target on her back. But, Devon and Ashley are gaining more and more confidence and arrogance, which is never a good sign.

Here is how I see it...

Safe: Mike, Chrissy, Ben, Ryan
Slight risk: Ashley
High Risk: Devon, Lauren

I think Mike will be used by Chrissy and Ryan, last week we saw how committed he was to the new alliance, but now he's likely to wash his hands of them.
Chrissy, Ben, and Ryan all had one confessional rise, beginning a new story arc, perhaps how they will take control of the game?
Ashley has been stable, but she could be at risk as a surprise boot.
Lauren had a peak last week, and is shown to be quite strategic and level headed, while Devon is getting quite full of himself and is also very strategic.

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12-06-17, 01:20 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Confessionals Episode10 & 11"
Thanks for doing this every week. Since CBS has been giving us garbage for clues and not that much storywise in the promos, I've been using the confessional count as a big part of my spoiling. I know it takes a lot of time to do. You rock FloPo!

Outdone by Agman

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12-10-17, 11:09 AM (EST)
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30. "Episode 12 Confessionals...."
LAST EDITED ON 12-10-17 AT 11:11 AM (EST)

Thank you for the kind words, CTGirl!

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | 10| 11| 12| total
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 36
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 38
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 28
Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25X
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 23
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 23
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 19

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X
F14 Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X
F13 Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15X
F12 Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 8X
F11 Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18X
F10 JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | 5X
F9 Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 25X
F8 Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

At this point in time we are able to go back and review the confessionals for patterns. So, I went back and paid attention to the episode preceding the boot episode. If there was a rise in confessionals preceding the boot episode, it's in a story arc that is peaking. If there was NO rise or fall in confessionals preceding the boot episode, OR, if there was a decrease in confessionals preceding the boot episode, it's a hidden boot. The story arc is declining prior to their boot episode.

Here is what I found:

Simone: boot preceded by 0 = HIDDEN boot
Patrick: boot preceded by +1 = Rising story arc
Alan: boot preceded by 0 = HIDDEN boot
Roark: boot preceded by 0 = HIDDEN boot
Ali: boot preceded by +2 = Rising story arc
Jessica: boot preceded by 0 = HIDDEN boot
Desi: boot preceded by -1 = HIDDEN boot
Cole: boot preceded by -1 = HIDDEN boot
JP: boot preceded by 0 = HIDDEN boot
Joe: boot preceded by -1 = HIDDEN boot
Lauren: boot preceded by -2 = HIDDEN boot

Results: I didn't really count Katrina as she had no preceding episode.
5/11 had no rise or fall(they stayed the same) in confessionals preceding boot
4/11 had a decrease in confessionals preceding boot
9/11 had HIDDEN boots
2/11 had rising confessionals preceding boot

81% of the boots are preceded by an episode where their confessionals either stay the same from prior episodes, OR, decrease. 18% of boots go out as their counts are climbing.

Not that we can deduce really anything from this, but we can say that the pattern, if any, of the season points to hidden boots.

So, applying this to the upcoming episode: the only one that has rising confessionals is Mike. Mike = safe?
Ryan, Ben, Devon = decreasing confessionals prior to next episode
Chrissy and Ashley = 0 change in confessionals prior to next week

Now on with the confessionals:

This week Chrissy and Mike had the most confessionals, each with 4. Mike begins the show with the first confessional: Again I got blindsided. I just believe people when they tell me something. see Devon. And, each and every time I get screwed. Iím going to get through this, I just have to figure out how.

His second confessional came after the IC...I thought I was screwed but Lauren has all these advantages in the game. But, Ben wants to get rid of her and all of a sudden, I feel like I am back on top. So, never underestimate Dr. Mike.

Third: Chrissy wonít commit to taking out Lauren. This is vengeance more than anything else...Sheís playing emotionally at this point and I donít know whatís going to happen tonight. Survivor rule number 2, have a plan B.

His last confessional was the last one of the episode: Lauren gave me a piece of her idol, to say, Look, I trust you. It falls into one of those stupidest moves ever in Survivor history. And, the only question is, do the Survivor gods make her pay for it or not?

Chrissy also had 4 confessional as the woman scorned. *snicker*
She begins: I get the fact that this is a game, but I felt very close to Ben. His response was inhuman. And, he wasnít even a friend about it. He was kinda being a jerk...It looks like my days are numbered but I am not going to roll over and die. And, I have to do every thing I can to make it to the end for my family, and, If I get a chance to get back at Ben, Iím gonna take it.

Second: Post RC win: Poor Ben picked the wrong time to pick a fight with me because he did not get to see his sweet Kelly. Now, I Ďm going to make sure that he regrets that he ever crossed me.

Third: During the RC: The reason I picked Ashley is because I felt like Ashley would be the easiest of the 4 to break. Itís a long shot, but if I can bring just one person to our side then we have the majority in numbers and we can control the next vote.

Final: I was ready to go to tribal and vote out Ben, but OMG, if by voting out Lauren, that will keep me safe, I have to consider it...the problem is that for 6 days, Ben has lied to me and used me. How am I supposed to trust him, how am I to know that he just wonít come back to camp and say, ďHa Ha, I duped you againĒ?

Ben and Lauren had 3 confessionals each:

Lauren's: First one complains about Ben and his fake idol...Benís got this fake idol, but what is it gonna do? Whoís it gonna benefit? ....he just wants Chrissy to give that fake idol to Jeff and Jeff throw it in the fire and embarrass herself. Itís cause he has a personal thing against Chrissy and thatís my problem with Ben. (See Ben, Devon, and Lauren looking for the real idol) Heís taken all these factors to the personal level.

Then, we see Lauren find the HII...and her confessional continues...At this point the only thing I have is a leather string. So, at the next immunity challenge I have to get that shell complete to be in play.

The next confessional for her was in the spot of doom, post IC: Picking up the shell completed the idol, so with 7 of us and 4 of us all voting the same way, case closed, itís either Mike, Chrissy, or Ryan.

Final: I just heard that Benís trying to blindside me, what the he!! is going on?
So, I still have that extra vote, but first I want to see if I can still get some numbers back. on my side.
Then, she proceeds to give Mike half of her idol...

Ben: Ryan played an idol at TC, traditionally once an idol is played, another comes back into the game. With that one coming back into the game, we need to find it. So, I decided to make a fake idol and Iím going to plant that somewhere while I go look for the real idol. ...If Chrissy, Mike or Ryan finds the fake idol, theyíll stop looking and that will give us more time to look for the real one. See a snake on the log.

Second: I came up to the well and I seen Devon, AShley and Lauren kinda talking underneath their breath and I heard my name, and they seen me coming and they stopped talking. The whole thing was really suspicious....Something is really going on around here, they are saying Chrissy, but I feel that it could be me? So, I gotta do whatever I gotta do.

Third: I was trying to talk to Chrissy and she just blew me off. Sheís holding a grudge in this game and taking it too personal. Half of me was like screw it, I have an idol. But, Iíd rather save it for like 5. (See Chrissy following Ben out into the jungle.) To do that, Iím going to need Chrissy...

Ryan, Devon, and Ashley all had 2 confessionals each.

Ryan: HIs story arc declined by 1. First: I was just frigging hood winked, I was just duped. Apparently Ben was with Lauren, Devon, and Ashley. And, I played my idol, I didnít have to, they got me, Iím in an awful spot right now. I have no allies except Chrissy, who has no power. But, other than that it went really well. Reaction from going to power to no power.

Second: I was shocked! Ben wants to vote out Lauren! Now, he can be very vague, but thatís all I needed to hear because as long as itís not on me, Iím down. The only problem is for this to work, we need Chrissy, and she hates Ben.

Ryan taking a back seat toward the end of the show is encouraging to me, regarding his chances.

Devon: He drops 3 confessionals from a peak of 5, by far the most decline. But, just as Ryan is taking a lower profile at the end of the, could Devon be as well?

His first just comments on Ben making the fake II: Ben made a fake immunity idol and it looks really legit...turns out Benís pretty crafty, Iím impressed!

Next, he disagrees with Ashley wanting to vote out Ben...

Ashley still wants to vote out Ben, she sees him still as the biggest threat in this game, but I see Chrissy being a threat too. (see Chrissy in the water.) With challenge capabilities and who the jury might want to see win in the end.

Devon is mostly commenting on what others are doing or want to do.

Ashley: Of course Chrissy is going to say anything she can to get the numbers on her side but itís interesting because she might be right. Both alliances know that Ben is a huge threat at the end, so do I just go ahead and initiate that right now? To be able to say that I made a big move?

Next: Having the IN at TC tonight is going to feel amazing. I see myself in a great position because I have an alliance I can trust, sees Lauren, Devon, and Ben (over confidence noted), we have the numbers. But, I realize I may not have that many big moves on my resume, and for me to win this game I got to get rid of the stronger players. See a snake slithering...

So, there we have it. Now, what does it all mean?

As we get down to the penultimate episode, it looks like a case could be made for each and everyone of them to be the next boot. Taking everything into consideration, here is how it could go....

Safe: Ben, Mike
Slight risk: Chrissy, Ryan
At risk: Ashley, Devon

Ashley is rock stable. We hear Ashley's name get mentioned by Chrissy at the end of the preview promo. Devon dropped from 5 to 2 confessionals. He had the greatest drop, just as Lauren dropped before her boot last week.

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12-10-17, 12:08 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Episode 12 Confessionals...."
LAST EDITED ON 12-10-17 AT 12:10 PM (EST)

Add me to your list of admirers, I belatedly agree with CTgirl.

You don't get the applause you deserve for your efforts and insight which have proven to be so on the money. I don't often see the detail that you present, and so I lean on your perspective to interpret the episodes. And when I disagree, as I will this week (barring another HI find or a IC win, I can't see anyone but Ben going home) I do so knowing full well that Thursday I will be ruing my decision.

Thank you, FP. Please keep up the good work.

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Flowerpower1 2278 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-17, 04:44 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Episode 12 Confessionals...."
LAST EDITED ON 12-12-17 AT 08:31 PM (EST)

You are too kind, Kingfish! I have to say I always admired how Corvis used to do the confessionals. Then, Dabo. I do think they are of some value as we try to trump EPMB. At this point I think Ben is our winner.

But, if it makes you guys happy, it makes me happy! I have so much fun sharing my obsession with the likes of everyone here! I've been posting on this board since Pearl Islands...I suppose I will always enjoy chewing the Survivor Phat, so to speak!

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Sheldor 1714 desperate attention whore postings
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12-12-17, 00:40 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: Episode 12 Confessionals...."
Let me add a BIG THANKS from me too!
HARD work and an AMAZING JOB!
And VERY accurate "At Risk" each week.

FlowerPower Nails it Again!

After Ep01 At Risk: Ashley, Joe, Jessica, Simone
After Ep02 At Risk: Lauren, Patrick, Joe
After Ep03 At Risk: Joe, Ryan, Lauren, Jessica, Alan
After Ep04 At Risk: Joe, Ashley, Roark
After Ep05 At Risk: Ali, Joe, Ashley, Cole, JP
After Ep06 At Risk: Cole, JP, Ben (Safe: Jessica)
After Ep07 At Risk: Ben, Cole, Devon, Joe (Slight Risk: Desi)
After Ep08 At Risk: Ben, Joe, Cole
After Ep09 At Risk: JP, Mike, Joe, Ryan (Double Episode)
After Ep11 At Risk: Devon, Lauren

This week's analysis...
After Ep12 At Risk: Ashley, Devon

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Flowerpower1 2278 desperate attention whore postings
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12-17-17, 08:41 AM (EST)
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34. "Episode 13 Confessionals..."
LAST EDITED ON 12-17-17 AT 08:48 AM (EST)

Sheldor, you are so kind! But, you, my friend, are the one that deserves the most thanks around here. Without you this season, we would all be lost! Thank you for all the hard work, it is MOST appreciated, and so are you!

episode | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | 10| 11| 12| 13| total
Ben hero| 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 47
Ryan hust| 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 38
Chrissy hero| 2 | 2 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 32
Devon hust| 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 26
Mike heal| 3$| * | * | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 25
Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21X

F18 Katrina hero| 1 | 1X
F17 Simone hust| * | 2 | 2X
F17 Patrick hust| 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
F16 Alan hero| 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9X
F15 Roark heal| 1 | * | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6X
F14 Ali hust| 2 | 3$| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 15X
F13 Jessica heal| 1 | * | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 15X
F12 Desi heal| 1 | * | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 1 | 8X
F11 Cole heal| * | 2 | 2 | 2 | * | 1 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18X
F10 JP hero| 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | 5X
F9 Joe heal| 2$| 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2$| 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 25X
F8 Lauren hust| 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 25X
F7 Ashley hero| 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 21X

$ = Money Quote, million dollar quote

Wow, Ben is on a trajectory that is off the charts. This episode he was practically the only star. He had 9 confessionals. I feel like his final arc is upon us and I do believe that he will school us in the game of Survivor. The majority of his confessionals were about not giving up, trying to work everyone there, never stop looking, always on the move. Lets see: His first one, as well as the first one of the show, explained that it was amazing at TC, he turned everyone against him, so he could get Lauren out....seeing 6 votes for yourself, then you pulling the only vote that counts, it was a great feeling!

His second was about Devon calling him out and everyone painting him the bad gu, no alliances anymore, so, he's gotta long hard road ahead...

Third: Traditionally when an idol is played, another is introduced into the game. So, he gets up in the AM, fire is not going, so he makes one, and then looks around, sees everyone still sleeping so he goes the "gather wood" and look. They are not easy to find, the islands, the forests are huge, but the last time he found one there was a rock, that said, "dig" on it, so he's looking for something like that. He's looking everywhere.

Fourth: He knows his time is dwindling here, and he accepts his fate, so he has to find an idol or win immunity to keep in the game, cause he ain't gonna quit this game...

Fifth was after the reward he didn't want to go on it, so he can keep looking for the HII...he notes that Ashley is angry, perfect for him as it's the only way he can start stirring things up.

Sixth: (Speaking about Mike and Ashley) He notes they are like a bunchy of crying babies, hungry and tired, and is he going to use that to his advantage, yes, it's the only thing he's got...Mike wants him gone so he'll be his next target. He's hoping he can work with Ash, he's got a lot of work to do to keep his butt in the game.

Seventh: Talking to Ashley was like trying to talk to a brick wall, so he's looking and trying to find the dang HII and we see him go off into the woods.

Eighth: Post IC: Damn friggin puzzles....I needed this one because considering how last tribal went I am 100% sure that they arre targeting me tonight, but being a marine, you never give up so I am going to go look around this island for a darn idol. He asks if anyone needs water, Ashley hands him her canteen...those people are crazy for not following me...

Ben also has the last confessional of the show....talking about finding the HII...I see a purple box with an arrow pointing down...No way, no way, OMG! as he unwraps the clue...the immunity idol is tied to the underside of your shelter....reads on. No Way! No way! I found it! I found the dang clue. On it is a map with a picture of the bed, it has an X painted on the bed. Iím pretty nervous because of everybody! See him walking toward the shelter, thank you! Iím hoping that nobody is back at camp. I get back to camp and Ryan, Devon, and Mike were at the fire. I donít know how Iím gonna pull this off. See him lie down on the bamboo...If I start digging around the bed, and pull out a purple thing, everyone is gonna know what that is....everyone at this camp wants me gone, but I could blow up this whole game so I am not going anywhere until I get this idol....

Ben is alone in this game but committed to playing it as hard as he can, 24/7. He, for me, is running circles around the rest of the group. That's why I think these confessionals mark how he is going to take this game...

Chrissy, almost as the antagonist to Ben, had 4 confessionals. Her first comments on foiling Ben, but noting that she's nervous because when she woke up, he's gone, nervous he's looking for the idol, but everyone wants him out, for her game, she's banking on him not finding the HII.

Next, she switches targets, almost on a whim....Although, I donít know him well, going to the final three with Devon allows me to break up the pair of Devon and Ashley. Ashley was calling me out in front of the tribe so if Ashley wants me out Iíll get her out....see them toast with pinacoladas, to the final three! She continues...On the other hand, Ben is a big threat, but heís not attached to anyone where as Ashley right now has better relationships. So for my game, it may make more sense to vote out Ashley first, Ben next. Right now I donít know which way is the best to go.

Next, was the post IC confessional, usually reserved for the bootee...My whole plan going into the IC was to try and win immunity so neither Ashley or Ben was available to be voted out. So, I have to decide which one I want to be voted out first. This is my time to be in control of the game.

And, her final, shows Chrissy's paranoia, or just her dogged determination to get out every single female...Ashleyís plan is to split the votes between Mike and Ben, see if anyone plays the idol, and if no one plays the idol, then vote out Ben. But, I would actually like to vote Ashley out first because she is the one that I trust the least, and she is gunning for me to be out so I gotta get rid of her. I never saw or heard Ashley gunning for Chrissy, so???

Devon was next with 3 confessionals.His first: Coming back to camp after Tribal we all felt like if there are Survivor gods, then that was a move by the Survivor devil. Cause that was messed up, and I didnít want to see Lauren go home at all...Ben is still our number 1 target, but this game is never as simple as you want it to be. As soon as I think I have this perfect plan, itís going to be so easy thatís when things just turn upside down and every thing goes this opposite way and you have to devise this whole new plan...and start over. Foreshadowing for the episode.

His last was in regard to going to the F3 together with Chrissy & Ryan...Chrissy brought up this idea of she and Ryan and I, go to the final 3 together. Ryan was my closest ally and then he was my number one enemy, but regardless of how unaligned we have been over the last few votes, this is the best time to make a move. Iím just going to the final three with who I think I have the best chance with, who I think I can beat in the end. Devon has found a new way to get to the F3, and is at least thinking of it as a move.

Mike, Ryan, and Ashley all had 2 confessionals.

Mike's first confessional is after the RC when he's "venting"....I was so pissed about losing this challenge. I donít know why Devon and Chrissy didnít take me over Ryan...on this reward. You would think because I am in the middle that I would be needed, unless Devon is trying to flip Ryan back to him . Itís very scary to think that Devon could be the deciding factor on me winning a million dollars... Interesting that Mike has Devon's number, and I can't help but think this could be foreshadowing that Devon outlasts Dr. Mike.

Second: His second was just asinine for any fan of the show to say...Ben is going to look for the HII, but Iíve searched the beach, Iíve searched the paths and we donít need to keep following him around because Ben is not going to find another hii, as long as he doesnít win immunity, which he has never done, Iím pretty confident that Benís going home. This was a very disappointing approach to the game from one that calls himself a fan. Complacency.

But, Mike wasn't alone, all of them never followed him. They were all complacent, and that is why if Mike makes it to the F3, he would most likely win. He was constantly on and focused.

Ryan: His first was, I could not be any happier, I didnít think it could get any better than when I saw my dad, and coming ot this private island and itís all you can eat and drink, and I didnít even win, they took me! It i s without question one of the best moments of my entire life!

Then, The relationship that Devon and I had was up and down but in the greater scheme of things I am closest with 2 people, Iím with Devon and Iím with Chrissy. I would LOOOOVVVVEEE to go to the F3 with both those people. This says to me that Ryan just wants to get there, to the end, he doesn't seem to be playing to win. It does contrast with Devon, who looks at going with them as making a move, which would most likely betray his closest ally, Ashley.

Ashley's first confessional comes after Ben tells her that they (Chrissy, Ryan) are gunning for you and Devon. She notes in confessional: At this point, Devon and I donít really have an upper hand any more and I think that itís true to a very large extent but coming from Ben, heís probably just saying that to save himself.

Ashley had an inroad to think of an alternative to she and Devon. And, she didn't explore it. If I ever played Survivor I would be receptive to everything....I think. How many times has not knowing when to jump off the sinking ship led to someone's demise?

Her next was commenting on Ben searching/finding another idol...Tonight, it would be nice if we could get in, everyone vote for Ben, and get out. (we see Ben searching for the idol). Becuase at the last Tribal it was pretty shocking to see Ben whip out that idol. I donít think that he has an idol but heís the most likely person to find one. See him searching.

Complacency = defeat

I have to say that I think Devon was wise to find another viable path to the end, whereas we saw Ashley do nothing. Nor did Mike. There are 2 players that this game has revolved around and they are Ben and Chrissy. I fully expect both of them to be in the F3. Ben had a HUGE spike from 3 to 9 confessionals. I see it as the beginning of his final arc and how he possibly wins the game. I have to say that it does remind me of a Mike Holloway kind of edit.

Chrissy is rock stable, but we see that her story arc is in full force. She's turned up her end game for the past 3 weeks with 4 confessionals per game, she's not letting up and that is a positive sign for end game, imo. Because her story arc is up and due to the content of her confessionals and her exemplary challenge prowess, I do not see her getting booted at this point. I see her at end game.

So, what remains? Last week I noted that EVERY boot has been a hidden boot with the exception of 2. So, with that information, we see that Devon had a rise in his confessionals from 2 - 3. I think it is a positive sign that his story arc is gathering some momentum at the end of the game as well. For me, this eliminates him as boot candidate for the first boot of the next episode.

Mike and Ryan would be the hidden boot candidates. Mike dropping from 4 - 2 confessionals and Ryan stable at 2. One of them is most likely the next boot, imho.

Here is how I see it for the next boot:

Safe: Ben, Chrissy
At slight risk: Devon
At risk: Mike, Ryan

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