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"S: 33|Confessional Analysis"
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Flowerpower1 1904 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"

09-28-16, 03:53 PM (EST)
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"S: 33|Confessional Analysis"
LAST EDITED ON 09-28-16 AT 06:05 PM (EST)

So sorry I am late to the party this episode, but I did want to post this prior to the airing of episode 2.

We have 2 sections to note with the first episode. The confessionals that were chosen to be shown in the intro, and those that are shown post intro. I consider the intro to be the ones shown prior to when Jiffy says: 20 Survivors, 39 days, 1 winner. Here we go:

The first confessional went to Taylor who spoke of what a lot of us may think a "Millennial" is....essentially a "peter pan type". HIs confessional was: My generation, itís all about doing what you wanna do, and I have done a lot....bee keeper, Iíve brewed beer, snow board instructor, Iíve gone to N Dakota. I'm definitely a peter pan type, like Iíll never grow up, this is who I am and I canít change.

The second confessional the second confessional gave us more insight into what a millennial is and it came from Mari. Interesting to note that it delivered the first winning quote of the episode... I play video games online for a living. And, as an adult you are constantly told, grow up, stop playing, but, I want to make my entire life about playing and Survivor is the game of games and I am going to win.

The third confessional came from another Millennial, Zeke, but his contrasted from the first two....The thing about young people, they are always on social media. They are always on twitter, but I donít like being tied to my phone. I generally resent technology. I think twitter is the worst thing ever invented. I mean I am on twitter but I still think itís horrendous.

The fourth confessional was from a Generation X'er, Chris. He told us what it's like for a Gen X: Iím an attorney and I am 38 years old and I know the older generation, they take and they actually listen and they use those life experiences. If you havenít ever been knocked down, then you donít know how to get up and fight.

The fifth confessional also came from a Gen X'r, Sunday: I have 4 kids and I am actually quite surprised at the 25 year old kids that sit home and play video games, so I just feel like they are a little bit more due sera, sera...if it takes me 7 years to get through school, who cares, my parents are paying for it.

And, the final confessional of the intro was from David: I am a tv writer and it took me 14 years in assistant purgatory to finally become a writer, and I donít think younger people would put that kind of time into whatever their dream is. They would just try to find a new dream.

The confessionals were divided between the 2 opposing sides, and their content gives us their views of not only themselves but from what they perceive the other side to be like. We know that they are chosen carefully to underline the theme of the season, but often the winner is mixed within. Last season, Michele did not have an intro confessional. I tend to think they may just take the best quotes that serve to set up the season.

With the intros discussed above, here is our first look at the confessionals as they line up in episode one:

episode      | I | 1 | total

David Tak | 1 | 4 | 5
Jessica Tak | * | 4 | 4
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 4
Zeke Van | 1 | 3 | 4
Chris Tak | 1 | 3 | 4
Adam Van | * | 3 | 3
Bret Tak | * | 3 | 3
Hannah Van | * | 3 | 3
Cece Tak | * | 2 | 2
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2
Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Sunday Tak | 1 | 1 | 2
Taylor Van | 1 | 1 | 2
Will Van | * | 2 | 2
Figgy Van | * | 1+| 1
Jay Van | * | 1 | 1
Ken Tak | * | 1 | 1
Michaela Van | * | 1 | 1
Michelle Van | * | 1 | 1
Lucy Van | * | * | 0

+ = Winner Quote

Here is how I see this so far:

David: He's certainly a character. He gives an intro confessional that I think serves to set up the perception of the other tribe, the Millennials, in contrast to himself as a Gen X. HIs next confessional introduces himself as a character...."He doesn't like bugs and such", but he does like to game and strategize. We see a lot of him and his reactions while trying to be helpful with the building of the shelter and it's really comical. We are left to think, what is he doing out there? But, I remember that I felt the same way about Cochran on his first chance. His second confessional of the post intro segment underlines his weakness in building the shelter, and starts to emphasize his paranoia over his lack of physical strength over any one else which could lead to his being on the chopping block....he tells us of his neurosis and his fear of dying. But, continuing on he notes that he IS a gen X'r, and so he won't quit or give up, and while he is noting this he's crying and we hear very sympathetic soft music. This is an underdog edit, but we are supposed to want to root for him, I think. This is the one that doesn't fit as the Survivor, yet I think that there is hope for him. We hear: I am going to work hard to make this happen and I am going to turn this game around for myself....cue nice sympathetic soft music. I need to start looking really hard for the immunity idol. It might be the only thing that can save me.

His third confessional was about being paranoid he'd be going home, and the final confessional of the episode noted that he was still afraid that he'd be going, he hopes his speech was enough, but he wouldn't know until TC.

David I think is going to be a big character for the season, and he's certainly starting out in a very dubious manner as the underdog. With his edit, he could have garnered sympathy from us and hope that he'd survive for JUST this episode, OR, it could have garnered hope that he'll SURVIVE. I think he has legs, and not just for this episode, perhaps? I think that David is safe, but he could be at slight risk?

Jessica had 4 confessionals post intro. The first 2 confessionals were about her finding the clue, and the next was telling us what it was, the legacy advantage. She intends to be the only one that will get it and last the 36 days herself. Her next 2 confessionals had to do with the scrambling at the end of the episode, post challenge, pre TC. First she notes how David was seen scrambling looking for the idol, and he has one it will complicate things and he will be going home. The last one was about how if someone doesn't do well in the challenge it will magnify them as a boot choice, so she wants to vote out Rachel, but she's still worried that someone has the idol.

Jessica finding the clue to the Legacy Advantage throws the spot light on her. She is shown to be with the 2 guys, Chris, Brett, and we know that she voted with the 6....Chris, Bret, Paul, Jessica, Sunday, and Lucy. Jessica is SAFE.

Mari got an intro confessional exemplifying what Jiffy wants us to think of Millennials. She also got 3 after the intro. Her first one noted that this is war but the others on the other tribe must also think that they are the best generation. Her next confessional was elation that none of the millennials have "regular" jobs, they are all over the map, they see things in a completely diff't way and that is their strength. The next confessional was in regard to playing the game. She acknowledges the "popular" group and they need to tear that popular group apart, she will play this game like a video game and pull the misfits and outcasts together. She will start putting in people's ears that the four pretty people are inseparable, that's dangerous so while they, the misfits, have the numbers, they need to strike.

Mari is the face of the Millennials, and at this point she's riding the misfit/outcast wave. She's SAFE!

Zeke: His first confessional in the intro was contrasting to the prior Millennial confessionals...he hates social media, he does it, it's horrendous. His next confessional builds on how he's different than the rest of them....they are a bunch of kids, that have never had a real job, while he's got the heart of an 80 year old. After the evacuation and return to camp, the tide changed. Zeke becomes the leader, re-building the shelter and then building fire without a flint: I would rate our camp at like pigpen level, itís is just a mud flat with like sticks of bamboo that are just haphazard sticking out and I am thinking, great, we will build a base, we got a tarp, itís not going to be as bad as last night. itís hard though because the rain never lets up and like last night was one of the hardest nights of my life. So, I donít understand how it could get must worse than that.

Cut to Jiffy arriving by boat.

So, we are standing around camp, and Jeff Probst pulls up and I donít know what heís going to say, but I am a little nervous.

HIs last confessional: We get back to camp and itís a wreck. We have a base but we need a roof, so we needed to hobble the shelter together and Iike I led the building of the second shelter....look, i donít know how to build a shelter, I live in Brooklyn, I know how to ride the subway and thatís like the extent of my outdoor skills. But, you know what, I stepped up and I did it, itís like against all odds I have become the leader of the camp....see him making fire....I never think of myself as the person that feels adept out here in the outdoors, I am not that kind of a person, but I am in on the idea of proving how tough I am, so, in a weird way Survivor is helping me rise to my potential. We have fire, and I made it! I never in a million years thought that I was going to be the guy that makes fire without flint! I feel like a milestone has been reached in my life that Iíve like become a new man I feel like I am growing as a person out here , I am affected by this experience in a very positive way! Iím very proud of myself right now! GREAT MUSIC, coming of age!

Clearly, Zeke is rising to the occasion. In his group of kids he's becoming the leader and rising to the occasion. He's a journey player perhaps that is already starting to reach potential. Let's see what else he can rise to! SAFE

Chris had an intro confessional that sets up the generational differences from his perspective. I see his confessionals as mostly narrational. After the intro his first confessional was about Dave, up there scrambling, he's paranoid, but he's also funny and charming, but he's pushing too hard too early. Next, he speaks about receiving the tarp and the ominous sign that is concerning the weather. Finally, he notes that Rachel was barking out orders and David blew the puzzle so those two are on the chopping block. Chris appears in good with Paul and Brett and Jessica perhaps. He voted with the six, I see him as safe.

Adam was like Chris, mostly narrational. First he tells us that they are all so happy and will prove that people are wrong about Millennials. Then, he tells us all about the horrible shelter they have, no roof, etc, everyone is so happy, nobody seems to care, he talks about how Millennials don't believe if you set your mind to something and you can dream big, then you can go ahead and accomplish it...Then, he talks about when Jiffy came with the tarp....this is unprecedented! This is not all fun and games this is the real deal. This is a real cyclone and there are real peoples lives at stake! With 3 confessionals that are all narrational, I feel like he's SAFE for now.

Bret is also mostly narrational. He notes how David is afraid of his own shadow, how he was covering his ears, there are more girls with more testosterone than him! Next, I wanted to beat the Milís so bad, we really have alot of people with strength and experience, I really thought that we would outshine them today and I am shocked that we didnít. At the IC Rachel tells everyone that she can do puzzles, then she screws it all up. Finally, his last confessional he is debating over Rachel or David to vote for. Rachel is useless in challenges and that's a liability but he wants to write David's name down because he thinks he has an idol, but if they have 6 they can split the votes. We have myself, Chris, Paul, Sunday, Jess, and Lucy. So, Cece, Ken, Dave and Rachel will be left out of the loop as to who we are voting for. Bret tells us the dynamics, he's narrating. He's SAFE for now.

Hannah has 3 confessionals and she appears to be the first observer of the pretty people alliance. She's funny! Her first confessional: So, looking around, it makes me nervous because I am seeing all the beautiful faces of kappa kappa Survivor...cause I donít want to be the obvious first out,but itís hard when you donít obviously fit in. Her next confessional was about the horrible shelter and how they can see the terrible storm approaching over the sea coming to get them like a monster to punish them for not building the shelter....narrational and very descriptor! Next, Hannah notes her plan...when you look at the group, there really has been like this division between the high school cool kids and the sort of misfit nerds. Cool kids vs. misfits and I do feel like the misfits are gonna be on the outs. So, I need now to squash that in the bud. Then she goes and enlists Mari. Hannah is going to be a player and is excellent at observation! She'll be SAFE this week!

Cece had 2 confessionals....first about the weather and the night of hell, then more about the storm and how they could have gotten hurt with the fallen tree. Considering her name was written down almost as much as Rachel's, we saw that she knew she was out of the loop but clung to Rachel....they didn't even vote together. I'd say that Cece is on the outside looking in. I'll put her AT RISK.

Paul had 2 confessionals, first he expects all of the Gen X'rs to be his caliber, hard workers, sound decision making etc., then, about Jeff coming to camp, knew something was up. Not much of a showing, but in with the 6, so I'll say SAFE for now.

Rachel commented on the weather and cyclone and then the second to the last confessional about not expecting to feel this way this soon in the game and that she and Cece are on the chopping block, it's not a good sign when people say "I don't know", so "I don't know"! David and Rachel got the last 2 confessionals as they were on the chopping block.

Sunday: She got an Intro confessional about her perception of Millennials, and then another confessional about Rachel: Rachel is definitely over eager sheís definitely confrontative, when you are in a group, it can bring a lot of negativity to the group, and people donít like it. She gave the reason to vote Rachel off. She's in with the 6 so she's SAFE.

Taylor got the first confessional of the season, he's the face of the Millennials, and his confessional was what the producers want you to think of them....they never want to grow up and they can do anything, like going to North Dakota! His first confessional post intro: Iíve got an awesome tribe there is one guy that I connect with, name's Jay. Heís got this gnarly hair and I can tell heí s just a bro. Heís gonna be someone that I can get along with pretty easily. ....and then I def. hit it off with Figs cause sheís pretty darn cute, laughs. And also Michelle, cause they are pretty good looking and I am a sucker for pretty girls. So, I already have a connection with these people here.
I think what a naiive little Peter Pan he is. These girls will eat him for lunch. He's seen with the pretty people, and he's at high RISK! If he isn't the first one out of their tribe, maybe he can learn, but I am dubious about his chances.

Will: Will had 2 confessionals as well, and he's narrational.....may the best generation win and then he gives us a blow by blow of how they all decided to take a break and have a beach party while their shelter was unfinished and the dark clouds were moving in, their shelter was one of the worst in Survivor history, And, I am thinking to myself there is no way we are getting the shelter finished in time. Will is not in with the pretty people so I think if his tribe goes to TC, he's SAFE.

Figgy: Back home I am a flirty girl and I am the center of attention. Iím good at manipulating men. People think that I am just a pretty face but they donít know the brains behind the face. Maybe I will end up getting the million dollar check and Iíll get a husband ****Winner quote****Jay and I had a connection like right off the bat and Taylor is my blue-eyed beauty, and I think heís so attractive. And, I knew those 2 boys are tight so of course I wanted to be a part of that, itís going to be strong.

Figgy is a smart cookie, imo, and she knows what she wants and she knows how to get it, but unfortunately for her, Hannah has her number too. Taylor looks like the tool that is eating out of her hand. The player between Taylor and Figgy is certainly Figgy. I think for that reason Figgy is at HIGH RISK.

Jay: one confessional: Taylor is my boy, I call him Tails, Figgy is my girl, they are my go two, we are cool, Namaste Michelle is cool too, she's one hot girl, btw, super hot. Clearly, Jay is "stoked" that he has his "go to's" already. But, we know that being a part of a strong 4 is not necessarily the best place to be when there are 6 more who have your number. AT RISK.

Ken: 1 confessional: Gives us some insight into himself....he's at home in the elements, wants to be uplifting to the group, have their backs. Team player, BUT, we find out that he IS NOT one of the six, they are not having his back. Is this an ominous sign for Ken? I think he's out of the loop but he's not making waves either, so I will keep him SAFE at least for this week.

Michaela: Very insignificant in the first episode, but did get one confessional about the weather and a reaction to Jiffy coming to camp. She's with the misfits, so she's SAFE for now.

Michelle: I think people see me as truthful cause of my faith, you know people have been coming up to me, you know Jay and I made a little bond, I also had Hannah tell me sheíll trust me and in this game having people trust you in this game, thatís very beneficial. Then she chops with the machete...( I think sheís going to betray). We see Michelle is in the pretty people group, but we also saw Hannah talking with her. She's in a good position, and people assuming too much about her can be very much in her favor, come down the road. For now, however, she's being noticed with the popular kids so she will be at SLIGHT RISK.

Lucy: No confessionals, could be a hidden boot next, but she was with the "6", so I will have her as SAFE.

From confessionals:

SAFE: Mari, Zeke, Chris, Adam, Bret, Hannah, Paul, Sunday, Will, Ken, Michaela, Lucy

Sight RISK: David, Michelle

At RISK: Cece, Jay

HIGH RISK: Taylor, Figgy,

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Episode 2 Confessionals Flowerpower1 10-03-16 1
   RE: Episode 2 Confessionals michel2 10-03-16 2
 Episode 3 confessionals Flowerpower1 10-10-16 3
   RE: Episode 3 confessionals CTgirl 10-10-16 4
   RE: Episode 3 confessionals michel2 10-10-16 5
       RE: Episode 3 confessionals Flowerpower1 10-10-16 6
 Episode 4 confessionals: Flowerpower1 10-14-16 7
 Episode 5 Confessionals Flowerpower1 10-20-16 8
   RE: Episode 5 Confessionals SquidProQuo 10-20-16 9
   RE: Episode 5 Confessionals CTgirl 10-20-16 10
   RE: Episode 5 Confessionals Flowerpower1 10-20-16 11
 Episode 6 Confessionals Flowerpower1 10-28-16 12
   RE: Episode 6 Confessionals michel2 10-30-16 13
 Episode 7 Confessionals Flowerpower1 11-04-16 14
 Episode 8 Confessionals, "I'm the K... Flowerpower1 11-12-16 15
   RE: Episode 8 Confessionals, "I'm t... michel2 11-13-16 16
       Random Thoughts Flowerpower1 11-13-16 17
 Episode 9 Confessionals Flowerpower1 11-22-16 18
   RE: Episode 9 Confessionals Outsider32 11-22-16 19
 Episode 10 confessionals.... Flowerpower1 11-26-16 20
 RE: S: 33|Confessional Analysis Flowerpower1 12-04-16 21
   RE: S: 33|Confessional Analysis michel2 12-05-16 22
 Episode 12 Confessionals.... Flowerpower1 12-10-16 23
   RE: Episode 12 Confessionals.... michel2 12-10-16 24
       EEEEEKKKKK! Flowerpower1 12-10-16 25
   RE: Episode 12 Confessionals.... Sheldor 12-11-16 26
       RE: Episode 12 Confessionals.... Flowerpower1 12-11-16 27
           RE: Episode 12 Confessionals.... Sheldor 12-11-16 28
               RE: Episode 12 Confessionals.... Sheldor 12-15-16 29
                   RE: Episode 12 Confessionals.... Flowerpower1 12-16-16 30

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Flowerpower1 1904 desperate attention whore postings
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10-03-16, 09:47 AM (EST)
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1. "Episode 2 Confessionals"
episode      | I | 1 | 2 | total

David Tak | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9
Jessica Tak | * | 4 | * | 4
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Zeke Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 6
Chris Tak | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5
Figgy Van | * | 1+| 4 | 5
Michaela Van | * | 1 | 4 | 5
Adam Van | * | 3 | 1 | 4
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 4
Taylor Van | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4
Bret Tak | * | 3 | * | 3
Hannah Van | * | 3 | * | 3
Jay Van | * | 1 | 2 | 3
Ken Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 3
Michelle Van | * | 1 | 2 | 3
Sunday Tak | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3
Cece Tak | * | 2 | * | 2
Will Van | * | 2 | * | 2
Lucy Van | * | * | * | 0


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X

+ = Winner Quote

Wow! Did not see Mari going this week, but she was one of the ones with the most confessionals, which is a spike, she certainly had the spike before the fall. I have to get back into the thinking of how boots can go.....there is the spike before the fall, and there is the dip to no confessionals for the hidden boot. Then, there are those that have the most shift from many confessionals to few, and vice versa, no confessionals to a lot. All things need to be considered!

This week there is ALOT of movement. I think the Millennials were primarily focused on because there was SO much action there. Essentially the only thing we got from Gen X was that Ken and David are BFF's and brought in Cece and they are primarily targeting the head of the snake, Paul. While Paul has to be in control, but was not in control when he suffered heat exhaustion and dehydration. With their immunity win, Paul feels back in control, and when you feel over confident we know what can happen.

The Millennials were all over the place, lots of drama, and at least two of them proved that they do indeed know how to play the game.

David, Figgy, and Michaela all had the most confessionals this week at 4 a piece. David's confessionals consisted of how grateful he was to his tribe, he has a Gen X attitude, but he needed to prove himself, but he's more of a Cochran than an Ozzy. His second confessional was about him hunting for the idol while at the same time collecting rocks to sit on. OMG, he was successful and this is just what he needs to get the confidence to make big strategic moves right now! Third confessional was about his relationship with Ken, how different he was but in Survivor you need at least one person to trust, and for him it's Ken and he thinks he is it for Ken. His final confessional was about Paul's collapse and how it might be good for him, being so weak right now thatís going to make it easier to convince people, you know what, it might be time to get rid of Paul..

For me, it clearly seems like David is indeed one of the characters for the season. He's an underdog with a capital D, and now that he's hooked up with the 'adonis" and the most physical threat in the game, while also finding the HII, there is hope for him. While he has been mentioned as the next target for his tribe, he's got an HII and I bet he's not afraid to use it, which makes him SAFE for this week.

Figgy was the boot decoy this week and her confessionals surrounded her relationship with Taylor and then with Michaela. Her first confessional was all about how she didn't come here for romance but look how gorgeous Taylor is and she gets to cuddle with that! Her second was My tribe doesnít even consider Taylor and I as a power couple threat, maybe because we are the millennials. Like, people like cough cough, Michaela, are throwing it out there and trying to put a target on our backs, but nobody cares. Her third was Michaela is being a complete B!TCH about nothing. This girl is crazy um, I want her as far away from me as possible. This girls gotta go. Her last confessional was how being on the chopping block was like a knife in her chest, but she and Michaela have had their differences but she has to stick with us!

Figgy had a spike from 1 to 4! That's a large spike. She was on the chopping block and was spared by the efforts of Michelle and Jay, but not by her own efforts. I think she is still at risk.

Michaela also had a large spike from 1 to 4, and she was named as Zeke's second target after Figgy. Michaela is the one that is salty and cantankerous, which as Adam noted is not the best way to START playing Survivor. Her first confessional was about Figgy and Taylor kissing and how gross that was, her second confessional was about the flirt that Figgy is and how dumb she is and how she needs to slow down and pull the rabbit out of the hat later, not walk in with it, then how if she has something to say that her mouth was not saying, then her face was speaking loud and clear. Then the third confessional was The couple would be dangerous if she was gonna stay around, but Iím just convinced that Figgyís going home, so! Get your kisses in cause that couple is just about to go down to one real quick! . Then, her final confessional was second to the last and was noting how she was fine with Figgy going hoe but if Jay is telling the truth she could be in trouble, it's up in the air.

With Michaela being more unstable and outspoken then the rest, she's in a precarious position. While she voted with Figgy and company once, I don't know if she isn't a wild card and that may turn the vote toward her. With her spike up, she is at RISK.

There were 7 people with 2 confessionals. Zeke went from 3 to 2 confessionals, but his confessionals are animated, his first one was about millennials taking hook ups less seriously, but they need to remember they are playing Survivor. HIs last one was about losing the IC but he's excited because he can't wait to go to TC and vote someone out cause he's here to win the million dollars! Yes, a million $ quote! Zeke is still one of the characters of the season and even while he was excluded from the vote, I think he's safe for this week.

Paul had 2 confessionals, one was about it's day 6 and no fire yet, but Cece and David were on the chopping block, and the next one was about how he loves to be in control, he has to be 100% in control, he doesn't have a choice he breathes control. Then he proceeds to lose control with his heat exhaustion. Paul had 2 confessionals last week as well, so he's stable, but he was identified as David/Ken's primary target, he's at RISK.

Taylor went from 1 to 2 confessionals. His first was he's smitten with Figgy and has love googles on and the next was about Mac calling he and Figgy out but Millennials are dreamers and he's dreaming big. This guy is a tool so far. He had 1 confessional post intro last week, and 2 this week. He's in the cross hairs for a lot of the tribe, but after Figgy. He's at risk.

Jay went from 1 to 2 confessionals and from what he swung with Michelle, I'd say his stock is rising. His first confessional was reactionary about his boy, Tails, Wake up! Gonna be stuck at home with your girl while it's bros night out at the bowling alley, this is where we need to blow up because this is not good! His second was narrational about Figs and Taylor going home but then it comes foreshadowing because things could go crazy, which they usually do. I see Jay being in good with Zeke/Adam but at the heart of things with Michelle, I see him as SAFE.

Ken also went from 1 - 2 confessionals. HIs first told us that spear fishing and surviving were things he was used to his entire life but he identified with David, he was the guy with the speech impediment and the twitches, and David getting confidence was giving him some. The next he comments on how he believes in his and Dave's Alliance and with Dave's idol they could do something big, like take Paul out, didn't want to give him too much time to try and counter. I feel that Ken's stock is on the rise, he's SAFE.

Michelle also went from 1 to 2 confessionals. She was amazing, and her actions underlined her confessionals. Her first one was It doesnít make sense to get rid of Figgy. Right now my alliance with Jay, Figgy, and Taylor we got to keep that number and we gotta switch the vote. Mari is really dangerous because sheís smart but tonights TC is about keeping people who I know will stick with me moving forward. Her last confessional was the last one before TC: This first TC is gonna draw a line, Figgy canít go tonight it has to be someone else. Itís really scary to me because I am not sure that we have the numbers to save Figgy. So, I might have to pull strings at TC to make sure that I have the numbers to get what I want.

Michelle is in a sweet spot, she's well liked and trusted by most and she has friends. I see her stock as rising, I think she is SAFE this week.

Chris, Adam, and Sunday all had 1 confessional. Adam and Chris both dropped from 3 to 1 confessionals. Chris' was about David as the target, and Adam's was about Figgy putting herself in the cross hairs and the rules of Survivor, no showmance's, catfights, etc. Sunday's confessional was reactionary from Paul's collapse, if it happened to him it could happen to any of them, and she likes him. Chris falls a bit under the radar, he's on the side with numbers, I think he's safe. Adam is in the minority, got caught outside of the majority, he could be at RISK. Sunday is stable, she's not been called out by anyone as threatening, I'd say that she is SAFE this week.

Under the radar with no confessionals: Will, Lucy, Hannah, Cece, Bret, and Jessica. Will dropped from 2 to 0 confessionals which could spell trouble for him. I'd say he's at RISK. But, Jessica went from 4 to 0, which definitely places her at RISK for a hidden surprise boot. Hannah and Bret dropped from 3 to 0 and Lucy is stable. Cece went from 2 to zip, and she was targeted last time, she's in the minority, and Paul is still calling her name, she's at risk.

Possibly SAFE this week:

David, Zeke, Jay, Ken, Michelle, Sunday, Chris, Lucy, Hannah, Bret

At RISK: Figgy, Michaela, Taylor, Adam, Will, Cece, Paul, Jessica

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10-03-16, 02:04 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Episode 2 Confessionals"
Great work, FP.

This will be very useful once again so I appreciate the time you put into just just to tally those interviews.

I think Gen X goes to TC so Cece, Paul and Jessica are good candidates to meet Jeff's snuffer.

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10-10-16, 05:37 PM (EST)
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3. "Episode 3 confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 10-10-16 AT 05:39 PM (EST)

episode      | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | total

David Tak | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14
Zeke Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 7
Chris Tak | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7
Figgie Van | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | 7
Michaela Van | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Adam Van | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 6
Jessica Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 6
Taylor Van | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6
Hannah Van | * | 3 | * | 2 | 5
Ken Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5
Jay Van | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4
Sunday Tak | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4
Cece Tak | * | 2 | * | 2 | 4
Bret Tak | * | 3 | * | * | 3
Michelle Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | 3
Will Van | * | 2 | * | 1 | 3
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 0


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X

+ = Winner Quote

There are so many DAWs in this season that doing confessionals is work! Paul got 3 confessionals in his boot episode and there were so many camera pans to him at inopportune times, falling in the surf, during the challenge, etc. etc.

This week there are a few interesting things to note. First of all, after such a STELLAR night in episode 2, Michelle goes from 2 to zip in confessionals, falling under the radar. She's the mastermind behind the scenes, the invisible puppet master, getting no blame for things as the fall out occurs at camp Millennial. I think it bodes well for her.

Her partner in crime, Jay also dropped from 2 to 1 confessionals, taking a lower profile. His one confessional was about the summit and who he hoped Figgy and Taylor wouldn't make out and embarrass them. Him settling down is also a good thing for him at this point, I think. I did see him be the one to ask Jeff after the challenge if they could have fishing gear instead of the comfort he the new leader of Tribe Millennial? If he is, that would be interesting. In a tribe full of followers it's good to be the leader, but, is their tribe all followers? I don't think so....

As for the other two of the TRI-FORCE...Taylor and Figgy: Taylor's first confessional is simple narration laughing about who gets to go to the summit, his top people in his alliance: Me, Fig, Jay, and Will. His next confessional: Strategically, the Millennial tribe is moving forward and itís really great for me. Ha! Ha! Me and Figs are pretty good at the moment. My girlís here, sheís happy, and this couldnít be a better position to be in, really. See Taylor and Figgy holding hands, then they plot to get out Zeke next. I don't like this confessional for Taylor....he's arrogant, he's still blinded by "his girl". I really feel that he is an insignificant person in the story of this season. So much so that I feel that he or Figgy will be meeting their demise shortly, and when one goes the other may be soon to follow? Taylor's count was stable. Sight risk.

Figgy, OTOH, dropped from 4 confessionals last week to 2 this week. Her confessionals were comments post return after TC,; Zeke and Adam were like: ďTaylor and Figgy; well done, I commend you.Ē And like itís not just us, buddy. There were seven votes. Adam and Zeke are at the bottom at this rate if we go back to Tribal. People that write down Figgyís name go home., then her next one was: The boys went in the water and Taylor and I talked to Cece and David. We are trying to learn if they are on the outs, if there are any divisions in their tribe. The first confessional was insightful in that Figgy knows that she and Taylor were given credit, while she also knows that it wasn't because of them that they were saved. She realizes that she's in the spot light and she doesn't necessarily like it. She's a bit arrogant as well. Then the next confessional was far more informative than anything Taylor had to say. I think Figgy is safe for the time being, but she is on someone's radar, namely Adam and Zeke's.

David had the most confessionals this week, 5, which were mostly narrational. He tells us that he, Cece, and Ken are on the bottom but he's a GenX'r and will work and not give up. Next, he was chosen to go and as a Survivor Super Fan, and so far he's achieving all of his Survivor dreams. HIs next confessional was about Paul, rock star, doesn't ask the audience but tells them about him, etc, and he is not giving up and when there is a swap or merge he will need their help to vote out Paul. His next confessional told us he got a very important 30 seconds with Taylor, come a swap he'll turn on the GenX'rs. And finally, After they got back from the summit he feels with Taylor he has a ray of hope which is what he's needed.

David is giving us a lot of insight into his own game, and I could see this all as foreshadowing. I do believe he's sitting pretty for a while. SAFE

His buddy, Ken, got 2 confessionals, stable from last week, but his confessionals were very anti Paul as the leader....he doesn't do what he says, and would you want someone like that leading you into battle....sure sounds like it's Ken that would rather be the leader. We see Paul not doing what he says he's going to do, but we DO see Ken doing what he says he's going to do. Additionally, it was Ken that went to Jessica and pointed out that Paul was not doing for the tribe what he said he would be. Then, we know what happened.

For now, Ken is safe. They NEED him. He is feeding the tribe. It was Ken that spoke for the GenX'rs when they were at the challenge, and he responded that they could not have fishing gear. So, looks like Ken is well on his way to becoming leader, perhaps.

Zeke dropped from 2 to 1 confessional. He's not sitting pretty now as he told us, he was excited about TC, and then HE was blindsided. He could be at risk if they go to TC.

Adam, otoh, had a great night, imo. His first confessional: Itís been my dream since I was 9 years old to play this game and have this experience. I did not expect my first Tribal Council to be my first #Blindside. Now, Iím going to have to play from the bottom and itís going to take a lot of work to get back into a position of power but I wouldnít count me out. I think I can get back up to the top again. And, it was the prelude to the intro. A very stellar and meaty confessional for Adam, imo. A fantastic million dollar quote! And, we all know how Survivor LOVES a good underdog!

Then, The status quo of the tribe is not a good position for me. I am still flabbergasted by that vote, cause Figgy sucks at Survivor. You canít make an obvious pair that is strong, good looking, talented in the challenges, and is not a threat in this game! And so, If Figgy goes home there would be a shift, and thatís what I need to happen in order to have some semblance of power here. Then, right after his confessional we see him talking to Michaela and Hannah about how it makes no sense, blah, blah, blah. He's making a very good point, and Michaela confirms what he said later, but she'll wait to make the call and listen to her gut when the time comes. I wouldn't be surprised if Michaela does just that later and goes with Adam.

Right now, I see Adam as at slight risk, but solely because he and Zeke are not in the 6. But clearly, they have Hannah, and I think they will get Michaela soon!

Michaela's confessionals are identical to Figgy. We all know she hates Figgy. I think Michaela will trust her gut, and join up with Adam/Zeke/Hannah soon, and possibly get rid of her nemesis. We'll see. For now, she's safe.

Chris went from 1 - 2 confessionals. HIs confessionals just set up Paul's and his own blindside. He's at slight risk.

Cece went from 0 - 2 confessionals. First one was about telling Taylor and Figgy that Paul was the leader at the summit, then her last one was about not knowing what was up, she could be going, no one was telling her anything. Cece is with David and Ken, and that is the best thing she has going for her. She's terrible at challenges, and she's not gaining social ground. I will say she's at risk, with a rise in confessionals and not much else to go on.

Jessica: She also went from 0 to 2 this week. But, she made the move. Her first confessional was talking about Ken being worried as he was in the minority, and her best bet was to stay with the 6, then her last confessional was very ominous for her....she's afraid of what would happen if Paul were voted out, and she's afraid of what would happen if he isn't voted out. Very ominous indeed. I think Jessica is at High Risk.

Sunday: She's a narrator, and she's solid at one confessional, but now she's thrown in with Jessica and broken the 6. Hmmm? Safe for this week.

Will: 1 confessional because he's excited to go to the summit with the GenX'rs. Will is seen with the triforce. But, is that the 'right' side to be with?

Lucy, Bret, Michelle: UTR
Lucy was seen being mean to people that were cheering for her in the challenge, and then in the preview promo for next week. She's certainly not making friends....

High Risk: Jessica
At Risk: Lucy, Cece
Slight risk: Taylor, Zeke, Adam

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10-10-16, 06:14 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Episode 3 confessionals"
Thanks so much for doing the FloPo! I know its a lot of work!

I love looking at it each week. Poor Lucy. I wonder what she did to ##### Jeff off!

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10-10-16, 06:30 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Episode 3 confessionals"
Great work, FP. I agree with those you put at risk, especially on Gen X. For the Millennials, I'd add Hannah who had a spike and could be voted out by both sides.
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10-10-16, 10:37 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Episode 3 confessionals"
Yes, you make a good point, michel! Hannah did not have a stellar showing and she's placed herself on a fence, and we all know what happens to fence sitters, don't we Dolly?

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10-14-16, 12:21 PM (EST)
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7. "Episode 4 confessionals: "
LAST EDITED ON 10-17-16 AT 10:43 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 10-15-16 AT 08:19†AM (EST)

episode      | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | total

David Tak | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 18
Chris Tak | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10
Adam Van | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 8
Jessica Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 8
Michaela Van | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 8
Zeke Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 8
Figgie Van | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 7
Ken Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7
Taylor Van | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 6
Hannah Van | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | 5
Jay Van | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5
Sunday Tak | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 4
Cece Tak | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 4
Bret Tak | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 4
Michelle Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 3
Will Van | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | 3
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X

+ = Winner Quote

Well, Lucy appeared to be in the most trouble in the preview promos as well as in the promo. Sometimes the blatant one in trouble is indeed the boot. Every season we watch it happen. Lucy got her spike in her boot episode and we saw it coming via the promos. **When a daw is under the radar and all of a sudden you see them making confessionals and visible in the promos, it raises a very large RED FLAG.

This episode there were only 20 confessionals, about 10 less than usual. I think because they had two long challenges, and the fact that Adam's confessionals were very long pertaining to the HII.

David continues to be the "character" of the season. Will he be the character of the season as Tony V was?

We will start with David, who had 4 confessionals, which is one less than he had last week, but remember, there was less time for confessionals this week so I think he's steady. His first confessional wasn't until after the RC, he went for a walk with Lucy, as he wanted to to get an idea as to what was going on in her head, cause if we go back to TC I am afraid that Ken and I are still on the bottom. I think the smartest thing for me to do now is to go along with the way the majority is leaning.

This is let's us know how David is thinking and what his plan is. As he and Ken appear to still be tight, we can ASSume that Ken and Cece are on board with him.

His second confessional: IRL, I think that Lucy is used to calling the shots but out here you have to be careful that things you say could be taken the wrong way or rub someone the wrong way because you can really ##### some people off and that is exactly what happened. Because, Ken wants to vote her out, but, tbh, it sounds like a really great idea.

So, Ken planted the seed and David is on board. The story at Gen X appears to be told through David's eyes, which makes me believe he is likely to last beyond the Gen X lines. You have to wonder if his story is the story of the season, will it continue once they swap and merge?

His third confessional is straight narrational: Right now things are blowing up in a big way! His final confessional gives us suspense prior to TC as his was the final confessional of the episode: At this point, I think the safest thing might be to just write down JessicaĎs name, but if I do that I just end up right back on the bottom. The other option I have is I could play my immunity idol for Jessica and save her,but I lied to Lucy straight to her face and I think she knows it. Iím sure she knows it. I just want to have the idol for safety and security. I donít plan on playing it....sigh. I have a lot to think about.

A perfect confessional to end with, I might add, will he play it or no? This is a meaty confessional. While many cannot understand how he would play an idol on someone else and lose it, while he, himself was not in danger, I applaud him for PLAYING. He's made an ally for as long as she and the game, but let's face it, with every move he makes he's more and more a target. What will it do to his and Ken's relationship, clearly Ken was not in on his plan?

I think David is SAFE for the next episode. His confessionals are steady, he's the biggest character of the season, so far. He's made a relationship, however hasty, with some of the Millennial's, he's SAFE this week.

Chris had the second most confessionals with 3, which was a spike from last week, up 1. I am beginning to think that Chris is the counter point to David. We hear from Chris, then David, etc. Chris had the first confessional of the episode, telling us how pi$$ed he was coming back, wanting to pull a Brandon Hantz and throw the rice in the ocean, becoming a tribe of one. Next, he tells us that Lucy thinks she has Dave and Ken, and she wants to make a move on Jess. I donít like Jess, I canít stand her, so, if I can help chop Jess, thatís what I am going to do now. I assume, as we see Chris sticking closely to Bret that he's their mouthpiece.

I have to say that I was surprised that the 2 big guys didn't go straight away to David and Ken, as they never betrayed them. Just makes me think that Chris and Bret are not the brightest bulbs on the Survivor tree.

His final confessional: Losing immunity today was a tough loss, cause I am not sure whatís going to happen. I mean Bret and I got blindsided 2 nights ago, so I donít feel comfortable at all. But, we have a plan to blindside Jess and I am counting on Lucy to make that happen.

His last confessional is dynamic in that it gives us his opinion of where he thinks he stands and insight into his plan moving forward. We see that his loyalty is misplaced once again. Will he ever align with Dave and Ken, (Cece), or will he be their nemesis?
Moving forward, he could be at RISK, but we know there is a swap next week. He's made a connection with 4 of the Millennials. I think, personally, he'll be safe. He's a challenge beast and will be favored until at least the merge, and he's the yang to David's ying......for now. But, he's a physical threat and if he gets on the wrong side of the numbers, he's at SLIGHT RISK.

While David and Chris told the story of the episode, it was Adam who was the star of this show this week, imo. Adam, who was at the very bottom of the Millennial totem pole is climbing up one rung at a time....comparing him to David at Gen X. This season it is the people who are in greatest need of the HII, that do seem to find it. I don't know whether production helps them along or not, but clearly it proves the point or at least underlines the point that if you need it badly enough, you will do what you have to do to get it, whether it's finding hidden idols or pulling out immunity challenges.

This is the theme of what Survivor seems to be all about....never giving up, no matter how bleak, and making your own way and LUCK in the game happen. The story of the underdog and the little engine that could.

Adam had the million dollar quote last week when he told us that it would be harder to get to the top from the bottom, but he would do it, then this week we see him finding the HII. We have to think that perhaps he could just do it?

His first confessional: Hidden immunity searching has really died down at this camp...but, I have a feeling that it might still be out there. So, I do feel like I need to re-dedicate myself to that search because after Mari was voted out my head is definitely on that chopping block. And, if I could somehow get my hands on an idol, I could somehow save myself. Finds the clue: Oh my, oh my, OMG! Cries and reads it....This is incredible! Confessional continues: For a Survivor super duper fan like me, this is what dreams are made of. I found the clue, now I just have to figure this thing out. I donít know how much time I can spare looking for it so I gotta go back to camp and look another time.

His final confessional post RC: I wish I could have performed better but that was never going to be my challenge. Iím not super comfortable with physical competitions. I just feel like I need to find this idol more than ever, but I donít have a lot of time left because I need to make sure I find it before, 1) we go back to TC, or 2) we swap. Foreseeing a swap tells us that Adam is indeed a superfan and is at least familiar with the game!

The clue says you have to look for the tribe motif somewhere in this designated area and look for this shell. If you break open the shell you will find the hidden immunity idol. Iím looking everywhere and I just donít see it, so I am walking along the beach and just hope that something hits me....Hear Hannah say, "HEY ADAM!" (oh nooooo), "howís your idol search going?" He replies, "Iím working on it", and she replies, "good luck, buddy"! Then it looks like he asks the camera man, "did she see me with this?" and he goes, "UHHHHH", and ominous music plays...

He puts it on, I just found the HII, this is beyond my wildest dream! I finally went for it today and I got it!

It was really tough to make the decision to come out here. My mom was diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer about 7 months ago. Itís such a devastating disease. Itís been such a night mare. Crying and becoming more emotional he continues: Itís been the worst thing you could possibly imagine. So, like to have my biggest dream is coming true at the same time that my worst night mare is happening. Itís not, it doesnít feel real. My mom is a huge super fan. She is the ultimate reason for being here. I want to give my mom something to look forward to. Being able to watch me find this, thatís what I came out here to do, to bring some joy back to my family.

So, we have now heard the motivation behind Adam and his story, and I think it really cut to the core, to our core. I was moved to tears as I empathized with him as a mother, who is also a superfan. To see a child agonizing with his circumstance. I know I am rooting for him at this point, but I still have to question can he do it. He's given us a million dollar quote and he's putting his money where his mouth is, but is he playing more to give his family hope and something to look forward to, or is he playing to really win the million? In other words, he could be our journey player, OR, he just might be a WINNER!

I see Adam with an HII in his pocket and as a steady character that is being developed as SAFE.

Jessica had 2 confessionals and is stable from last week. First one: Tonight there are some very unhappy people esp. Bret and Chris. Whether or not they believe me, I really donít know. I think right now there is too much anger. I am very nervous now, IĎm hoping that it was not a bad idea.

Jessica sure doesn't seem very intuitive or perceptive as is underlined by her next confessional which came after Ken's revelation to her regarding the rest of the tribe: I am stunned, Kenís telling me that Iím now the one that everyone is gunning for because I am the mastermind of the Paul thing, which surprises me greatly because I thought we all came up with it together! So it seems a little suspicious.

Jessica clearly needs someone more knowledgable about the intricacies of Survivor to help her navigate her way. It makes me think she will not get to the end, but if she joins with the other misfits on her tribe, can she be a number later? She totally turned on Ken, her true ally, and then was schooled by David. She needs help. Will she be able to make amends with Ken? I think so. Ken needs her just as much as she needs him. She was stable with 2 confessionals, she got her eyes OPENED wide (truly), I believe she's SAFE for now, but could be in trouble if she gets on the wrong side of the numbers with the swap, but being a weaker girl as opposed to a strong male, I think she will not be a primary target yet. SAFE

Ken was also stable with 2 confessionals. Lucy approached me and Dave and said weíre gonna vote out Jess and what basically got to me was that Lucy had a list of rules and regulations of what we were and werenít allowed to do. Do not talk to this person, do not go off by yourself,and I am thinking we went from one dictator to another and, it doesnít fly with me.

Ken tells us his perception of the new situation. Next, Iím shocked, I thought the relationship I had with Jen was genuine. I just found out she totally betrayed me, taking everything I said and delivering it to Lucy on a silver platter.

Ken seemingly is not the most perceptive in the bunch either, guilty of trusting the wrong people, just as Jessica was. But, David is Ken's closest ally, and it was Ken that pointed out if they vote out Jessica, they are still on the bottom. So, I think David will be able to pull Ken back in, and perhaps mend fences with Jessica. Funny, David is the glue that will hopefully keep them all together. With steady confessionals he seems stable, but as a challenge threat, he's at RISK. With the preview promo, we heard Jiffy say and "A Surprise twist threatens to tear two lovers apart", but the first face we saw when he said this was KEN'S, then Taylor's. Made me think Ken would be torn away first, if he is, he could be TOAST.

Michaela, Zeke, Jay, and Bret all had one confessional. Bret comes up from under the radar in the past 2 episodes, to give us one comment on how he feels after being blindsided by Jessica: Lucy come up and said, Jessica is the one trying to pull all the strings here. Jessica has a huge game going here and I applaud her for that. But you are now showing your cards. This is straight narration, he's pi$$ed at Jessica.
Bret's game is not being developed at this point because his story arc will either start later, OR, he'll have no real character development, (a la Lucy). I hope he does however, because he does seem like a character! Coming out from under the radar right before a swap puts him at risk, I think. He's a big, strong guy and if he is on the wrong side of the numbers after an IC loss, he could be a big target. AT RISK.

Michaela: She goes from 2 to 1 confessional this week. She only got it because she showed us she didn't care about showing her tata's, she only cared about winning! Hmmmm, could we take that as a million dollar quote? Why not! Jiffy loved it, and apparently, so did Tribey! Her confessional: I donít know what happened, I just like to win! Bathing suit like getting ripped off, itís like you can either lose or you can let your bathing suit get ripped off and win. So I was like, hand gestures, they are about to see some tataís today.

Michaela has shown that she is a physical threat for the woman. And we know she has attitude, but she does seem to be a team player, so far. She is really in a great position, straddling the cool kids, triforce, and Adam/Zeke/Hannah et al. I see her as safe this week. SAFE.

Zeke: He's also one of the characters that is being developed this season. He surprised himself in episode 1 and became the defacto leader, then he was blindsided in episode 2. In episode 3, he's narrator: The reward challenge was a nightmare from the beginning! Their guys are huge! Chris is like the size of 3 of me, Michaela,otoh, is like an amazon woman!

I took that as he was in awe of Michaela! I predict down the road he, Adam, and Michaela will indeed be working together? His confessionals are stable from last week, I see Zeke as SAFE.

Jay: Jay is also stable from last week. He seems to be the quintessential Millennial and has the confessional: The definition of a Millennial would be like a young person ready to go out and conquer the world. And, I appreciate that cause I am a dreamer. Gen X is like Ok, HS, college, 9 to 5, get a life....I donít want that.

It will be interesting to see how he mixes with them next week. We also saw that he was indeed surprised to see that Paul had been voted out. Seems he may not know GenX'rs like he appears to. As someone that went to the "summit" and met some of the Gen'X'rs, he has a connection to them, but he's a strong male, he's at SLIGHT RISK.

There were 7 people that flew under the radar this week. That's ALOT! Figgy and Taylor. The couple in the game. Both went from 2 confessionals last week, to 0 this week, then we see them both with confessionals in the preview promo. I saw them both side by side during the RC, praying...Taylor is a strong male that could be targeted if he gets on the wrong side of the numbers. Taylor is AT RISK. Figgy, as a female, I think will be at SLIGHT RISK. I saw their confessionals in the preview promo as foreshadowing....they will indeed most likely be separated, at some point soon, I think.

Sunday and Cece both fall under the radar this week. Sunday goes from 1 to 0 confessionals. She's one of the ones blindsided this week, with a swap next week she certainly won't be perceived as threatening, but she could do damage to others on her tribe. I see her as at slight risk. Cece had 2 confessionals last week, this week none, but we saw her taking orders from David, and following through on them. She's solidly with David, and owes him her Survivor life. She's still weak in challenges though and could be at RISK if her tribe loses. We also see that she will have a confessional next week, regarding the "idol search party".

Will: Will had one reactionary confessional last week, but was shown with his allies, the cool kids, this week he is shown on the goat hunt, but nothing. He could be at slight risk, if he gets swapped to a tribe without numbers. But he has made some connection with some of them, so I see him as safe for this week. SAFE.

Hannah falls under the radar after 2 confessionals the week before. I see that as a good thing for her. Things have died down since she surprised her allies Zeke and Adam by voting with the cool kids. I see her as non threatening. SAFE

Michelle: She is still one to watch for me. She had no confessionals in the intro, had 1 in ep 1, 2 in ep 2, and then has fallen way under the radar. It will be interesting to see if she has something to say post swap. Any thing can happen with a shuffle, but as a female, I think she won't be as threatening to most. She was shown praying during her sit out time for the RC, and she performed well in the IC. She's playing a good game at this point but with 2 weeks under the radar, could she be setting up for a blindside? Slight RISK

For this week:

SAFE: David, Adam, Jessica, Michaela, Zeke, Will, Hannah

SLIGHT RISK: Chris, Bret, Jay, Sunday, Michelle, Figgy

AT RISK: Ken, Taylor, Bret, Cece

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8. "Episode 5 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 10-20-16 AT 05:53 PM (EST)

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | total

David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 21
Chris Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 11
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 11
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 10
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 9
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 8
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | 6
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 5
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | 5
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 4
Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | 3


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X

+ = Winner Quote

Well, I was happy to see that the confessionals did lead to the boot this week....hopefully we can keep using them as a tool!

This week David continues to be the star of the season. He had the most confessionals with 4 and his arc continues strong and steady. I can see that he'll already be SAFE next week, just by looking at his counts. He got the first confessional of the episode expressing his possible regret for playing the idol on someone that nobody wants to work with, now he's vulnerable. The scene ended with a wave crashing down, will he be the one that it crashes on?

His second confessional was wrapped around finding the HII again. I thought it was telling as to his character and the way he's playing the game in comparison to Sunday and Cece who SHOULD feel at risk as two weaker girls....they give up and wander away because they are tired, while David outlasts and continues to work, finding the idol, once again. He's got staying power, he is representative of the Gen X generation, work hard, never give up; he symbolizes his generation.

His next confessional: Dave has reservations regarding what Chris wants to do: It sounds like Chris wants to vote out Cece, and Iím extremely nervous about that, he has Zeke and Michelle on his side, so I think I should just go along with the plan and make him believe he can trust me.

Then, he got the last confessional casting doubt as to the forthcoming events in TC:
Chris and I had talked and decided that we would vote with the Millennials to vote out Cece, but I really donít trust Michelle. She wanted to woo Cece over and target me, once Cece is gone, I would be the weakest person of our tribe. Iím worried that Chris, Zeke, and Michelle could form a voting block and vote me out at tribal and itís got me thinking whether or not I should give my idol to Cece and vote off Michelle. I play a lot of chess, and the thing about chess is you have to look as many moves ahead as you can....and if it means betraying an alliance or people that trust you, do it....cut to TC

David again shows us that he is a superfan and knows to look beyond the present circumstance, but his judgement was affected by what had occurred at the last TC. I think he realizes that the idol is much more valuable to protect him directly. I think he made a wise choice. Time will tell, but for now, I see him as SAFE.

There were 5 Daws that got 3 confessionals. I find this interesting. Four of the 5 are rapidly being considered as stars of the show, either integral to the story of the season, or as characters being developed. I think that one however is different. Taylor. So, we'll start with him. Taylor does look like the picture of "Millennial" as Jiffy defines it. He embodies it. His first confessional of the season voiced that. Then, he met Figgy. His entire story isn't really his story, but the story of Fig-tails. He's being painted as a love struck kid with nothing more on his mind in the GAME than getting the girl. He went from under the radar last week, to three this week. That's a large spike. His confessionals are still very Figgy-centric: 1. Swap is random, no idea as to what will happen, especially since me and Figgs have this little romance thing going on. My biggest fear right now is getting split up..., 2. Rock on! Figs tails continues! hahaha. I was so stoked because Iíve got the numbers and Figgy, so it could not go ANY better for me!

I feel like the last confessional in particular is misdirection. He's being set up for a fall. We all know when you start to get arrogant, it's over. Taylor is being edited as dumb and his confessionals support it.

His last confessional: 3. Figgs doesnít want anything to do with me, sheís like stay away from me, stay away. I really think that us being a power couple isnít any different than two people in an alliance that really trust each other. (see Jessica and Ken.) So, this confessional is a little meatier because his point is meant to be made. We see he's severely disappointed because he cannot stay away from his girl, and he makes the point that he and Figgs are no different than Ken and Jessica. This is foreshadowing. But, we as viewers, see that it really is different, because it's not forced down our throats every minute.....the concealed strong alliance of 2 could be far more successful, if you ask me.

So, Taylor's only confessionals since his very first introductory one have all been "Fig-tail" centric. Now he's feeling very arrogant. We also see that next week he and Figs are coming out. He went from 0 to 3, a sharp spike. Tails is at high RISK.

The other 4 characters with 3 confessionals I consider to be stars of the show. Their arcs are well in gear and they are steady. Let's start with Michaela. She went from 1, a million dollar quote, to 3. She's been steady for weeks, she had a spike at 4 in the second episode, settling back down to steady. She got a spike this week because she was a star of the show. She was a star at the tribe division....I open up my buff and I see green, man, I was pissed. You know you gonna send us to an empty beach where you gotta make a shelter and we donít have any food. I just wanted to flip him off right there but I didnít. She gives the explanation as to the sour face at swap. She's a character alright! She was a star back at camp when she started the fire: The fire got to a point where Jay gave up. I was exhausted but fire is necessary for our life in the game, so I started trying. Deeper down there is this theme in my life that sometimes when I get to a point where I have given it all that I have and I am almost to the point of giving up, and push a little further, and things pop. And, like (hear nice soft dramatic music development), like working at things, working to put my own self through college, working to pay off my own loans, like I WORK!
She continues after we hear a few comments from Bret that paints her in a very positive light....hero, she saved us, emotional for her. Iím normally not a person that cries, but sometimes you just need something so bad. Sometimes when you have no other choice but to get something done and it happens, itís just letting me know that the life Iím trying to get by winning this thing, is worth it. I do want it badly for my family. Thereís nobody in my family thatís been able to have success and keep it. Everybodyís got some type of problem. I just want to prove that you can have success and you can have like your family, TOGETHER. They praise her as a hero, etc...I do look at this as a re-affirmation of her million dollar quote.

Later, we also saw that Michaela was a STAR at the challenge as well. She's gaining confidence, she's willing to do what it takes to get there. She's clearly a star of the show but is she a winner? I have some question whether she had a journey quote or winner quote? Soft music played for emphasis on her final confessional at the scene of the camp fire events! It is clear, however, that she is a star of the show, and embodies what SEG loves in regard to a person doing whatever it is they have to do to win! She's a winner whether she wins the game or not. She's SAFE.

Chris is another star of the show. He's been blindsided so many times, it's hard to count. He's gone from the bottom of the heap at camp Gen X, to finding a bond with someone that he can trust, someone that comes from his neck of the woods. He's throwing in with his new friend, Zeke, and they need each other. Chris' confessionals:
1. Zeke is an Oklahoma boy, just like me, he grew up in Ok., probably an hour and a half from where I grew up...A big sooner fan and of course I played on the last national championship so we had that connection immediately. I am feeling better on this new tribe than I did on Gen X because here I have a tad bit more control over my decisions and how I am going to play the game. 2. Huge night tonight....this is a crucial decision and quite honestly, Iíve made a different decision...Cece and Dave backstabbed me and one of them has to go today. Dave bit me in the butt, but he has at least some numbers that will survive this tribe situation that we are in ....I have to have a big alliance that will protect me in a merge, so weíre gonna vote Cece off tonight. and, 3. If we can come together we can benefit each other, now whether Dave will stay to his word or not, I donít know, Iím trusting a guy thatís burnt me twice. Then, we see the fire flame up!

Chris has given us great insight to his vantage point. He's gone from bottom to top, and he's driving the bus with his new found friend, Zeke. He handled Dave extremely well, I thought and his judgement is on point. A big alliance with Dave in it could help him come merge time. And, if he makes it past merge events, he could be a real challenge whore that could make it far. Chris is SAFE.

Chris' new friend, Zeke, is also a star of the show and like Chris, he's gone from the bottom to the top in this episode. He tells us: This is like the disaster scenario, Iím on the one tribe where the millennials are not in the numbers and I am with Michelle, the one person from my tribe that I have 0 trust in, and weíre outnumbered and we are in a bad spot. This is reaction from the swap and his dire straights. Next, he describes his utter elation at meeting one of his childhood heroes, Chris: Chris played for my team, the Univ. of Ok., not only did he play for the Sooners, he was on the 2000 national championship team heís one of my childhood heroes. That national championship was one of the biggest events of my childhood! Who do I want to work with? I want to work with the big ginger haired football player who said: "Buddy, donít worry, things are not what they seem, you are not on the bottom, and I want to work with you!", Itís like the heavenís opened, a light shined down, and finally I catch a break in this game! True elation because he thought he's hit rock bottom and now has hope that he can swing to the top....he shared the elation with Chris, they have parallel stories. Then, finally: Iím frustrated because Cece and David are atrocious in challenges and they donít even seem to care, see Cece....because they think they have the numbers. Then see David. But, thankfully, Chris is trying to make a move and thankfully a Gen Xír goes home regardless. This underlined what he asked Chris in the middle of the challenge, "Is he trying to throw this?", regarding David's performance in the challenge!

I see Zeke finding a partner in this game, a partner, as Taylor identified earlier, one that could be just as dangerous as a power couple! I say one that could be even more dangerous than a power couple! Zeke is SAFE.

Ken is another star of the show and his arc has been steadily building up to this point. Things are looking better for Ken for now. He's gotten back with Jessica, Jess says that she has a legacy and that sheís willing to share it with me and that means alot. Iím giving Jess my full trust again. He's been identified indirectly by Tails who noted a strong alliance of two could be just as powerful as a "power couple", and now he's narrating events: Coming back to camp it was weird. The Millennials definitely bring some high energy, some goofy energy. Hopefully, Jess and I will be more subtle and more grounded with the way we do things. Then he tells us about his new friend, Adam is like the nicest kid ever, I feel like I hit the jack pot, heís super positive, heís respectful, heís polite and thereís a little bit of a crack in the Millennials. So, hopefully me and Jess got Adam. Hear him tell Adam: "I got your back, you seem cool." So, Ken's story is very similar to Zeke's. While he's on the bottom of the numbers at this point, he's making serious inroads with Adam, and we know that Adam is not too keen on Fig-tails. I see Ken as SAFE, for now! Especially if he hooks up with the rising star of the season, Adam!

Next, there were 5 daws with 2 confessionals. We'll look at Adam first. He's one of the one's to watch, he could win this game. He's gone from top to bottom, then found the HII last week, when things started taking a turn up. Now, he's switched to a tribe of 5 with the majority of the numbers. But, he tells us: Getting swapped into a new tribe with only Taylor and Figgy from my original tribe, itís my worst night mare. Figgy is very controlling, sheís lies constantly and sheís going to go through this charade as to how they are not a couple. I guarentee it. (See Taylor chopping a coconut). I donít know how long that will last because Taylor is ready to start cannoodling again. For me? Thatís a worthless partnership!. Clearly, with Adam telling us like it is, this is serious foreshadowing, imo. I see him jumping ship on Fig-tails, lickety-split, or when they lose a challenge. So, with Ken-doll on his tribe, the question is, will they lose before a merge?

Adam's second confessional: Ken and Jessica they seem to have a tight bond, and I know that Taylor and Figgy wonít turn on each other, so I have pairs on both sides of me. So, Iím the guy in the middle. Iím the guy they need to come to, to work with, Iím the guy in the middle. I get to decide which side moves forward. Yes, he is, and I'd say his assessment is spot on, and he is a super fan. He knows where he stands. But, from his first confessional, my money is on Ken and Jessica moving forward. For now, he's SAFE.

Jay had 2 confessionals. His first tells us his elation regarding his new tribe. I also feel that Jay is the voice of the Millennial theme, what SEG perceives Millennials to be. He notes, For the millennials most people just say we are just dreamers, but the truth is most of us are relentless. The geníxírs say we work hard and do things the right way. The people that I got right now, I got Bret and Sunday, sometimes they canít figure things out and they just sit back and wait for you to say something...But, even if I have to build a new shelter, Iím happy, because we got 4 millennials, 2 gen Xrís. See you later Gen Xrs, because even if I lose a challenge, you are outta here, boom... Then, So, we wake up this morning and we donít have a fire yet, Iím starving and Iím thirsty. Iím trying to use this flint over and over, and it just does not work for me, and I donít understand, why? And, Iím like losing all hope, and Iím like forget this! This sets the scene for Michaela's starring role, and this was simple narration of events. I see him in a good position on his tribe and he's very encouraging to Michaela, as well as a team player in challenges. He's SAFE.

Bret also had 2 confessionals. He's gone from 0, to 1, to 2. His arc is getting under way, I would say. If Adam is the embodiment of a millennial, then Bret is an embodiment of a Gen X'r. He tells us about Gen X'rs, as Jay told us about Millennials. Sunday and I we are in a tough spot but we are Gen Xírs and we have the drive to get by and not to quit. So, I need to prove to them that I am worth keeping around because right now itís all about surviving this game. Then, he narrates how he saw the fire starting events, as did Jay....Michaela tried, and like the next thing you know all these sparks were coming out, and BOOM, the whole thing ignited in fire and we were psyched, and I was psyched for her! (They congratulate her and you see her turn her back and cry!) Bret continues: It really brought us back to life and she saved us today! It was really kind of emotional for her!

His arc is starting to take off, he's on a tribe in the minority, and so far he's been edited as an insignificant character that hasn't seen much character development. I'd say that Bret is at RISK.

Michelle has gone from the top of the heap, to the bottom of the heap. She was in a majority of a tribe and now she is in a minority of a tribe with a fellow tribe mate that has "0 trust in" her. Her confessionals: My whole game was turned upside down. I happen to be on the only tribe with the minority, just me and Zeke and 3 Gen Xírs....Iím a little worried if we have a challenge that it will be me and Zeke. I feel that the alliance may be stacked against me so I am definitely scared. Later, David and Chris come to us and say you are safe tonight, but how do you trust it? There is a ??? possibility that heís not telling the truth. Iím not gonna sit back and let other people decide my fate because thatís not how Iím used to doing things, see a bat, fly away. As Cece joins Michelle in the hammock...she later concludes, I tried to talk strategy with her, and I canít get anywhere. So all I can do now is hope that David and Chris are telling me the truth and hope for the best. So, we saw that despite what she was told, she had to target David, which only serves to make David want to get rid of her! So, we know that Cece has gone, and now David feels like the weakest link and he doesn't know if he can fully trust Chris and Zeke, BUT, he has an idol. Either way, I say that David is gunning for Michelle, and Zeke doesn't trust Michelle. Chris and David took a leap of faith with Zeke, will he take one with them and vote out Michelle? He could. She's at high RISK.

Figgy goes from UTR to one confessional, and it's Tails-centric: Taylor thinks because we have the numbers we can be out and open, but sorry, Taylor. Being with these new people, thatís going to put a target on our back, itís not smart. Then we see Taylor say to Figgy: "Does it really matter?" At least Figgy assesses the situation correctly, at this point. We see next week she renegs. Adam told us he hates Figgy, she's a liar. So, Figgy is AT RISK.

Jessica had one confessional about telling Ken about the legacy advantage, hoping that he will trust her. Smart move, it did buy good will, and now you are in a minority with Ken. Being in a minority and the weaker link in that minority, you would think that Jess would be in trouble, but frankly, I see Fig-tails in more trouble than she is. She's made a positive move, where the Fig-tails are just love struck. I see Jess in slight risk.

Hannah, Sunday, and Will are all stable with NO confessionals. Of the three, Hannah and Will are safe, as they are in a majority alliance. BUT, we see that Hannah has a medical emergency next week, so she could go the way of confessionals until her boot episode. Hannah: at slight risk. Will: Safe. Sunday, in the minority on that tribe with Bret, she's the weakest link, she's at RISK.

From confessionals I get the following results:

SAFE: David, Michaela, Chris, Zeke, Adam, Jay, Ken, Will

SLIGHT RISK: Jessica, Hannah

AT RISK: Figgy,, Sunday, Bret

I really felt after watching the episode that out of all the characters at risk, it was Taylor that stood out to me with his arrogance and his confessional spike. This would be a total blindside, as he's a strong male, in a tribe with supposed numbers. The second one at great risk, imo, was Michelle. She went from UTR to 2 confessionals, and we know that she's alienated David, and he isn't going anywhere. For these reasons, I am placing them at high risk.

High RISK: Taylor, Michelle

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10-20-16, 06:03 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Episode 5 Confessionals"
Hi FloPo,

Great analysis as always! I'm just getting into this season but definitely agree with all your thoughts about who's safe / stars, and especially about Taylor's edit. Fingers crossed he's not getting the chill surfer dude / dumb guy comes out of nowhere to win edit that Jud (was that his name?) got. Also I just posted the CBS clues for this coming week and they are once again hyping that Figtails is in trouble, so let's hope it's not misdirection for a 2nd week in a row.

Hoping it's Taylor or Brett and not Michelle. Sunday should be in trouble but weirdly she didn't seem to get as much wrath as she should have for her performance last night, so it seems like Brett might be in more trouble vs. her if their tribe goes to TC.

Re Jessica at risk: Ken is a nice guy but would he potentially throw her under the bus at some point to get her Legacy advantage? I got vibes that Ken will definitely be outlasting her and she might regret her decision to share the advantage with him.

I wondered about Michaela being a journey edit too, but it sure was a fabulous episode for her last night! Think we have to at least consider her as a winner's contender now. And she is such a challenge beast.

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10. "RE: Episode 5 Confessionals"
Nice analysis FloPo. I think the confessional analysis will be very helpful again this season. Thanks for doing it.

I wrote in the title thread that I thought Bret and Taylor were the two most a risk but I agree Michelle is too. She was dealt a bad hand with the tribe swap. There isn't much room for her to maneuver at NuVanua.

Welcome Back Squid!!

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10-20-16, 09:00 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Episode 5 Confessionals"
Hi Squid and CTGirll! I love all the comments that I can get in here because I certainly don't think I am an authority at this, as Corvis is, he's gifted. I'm just one girls opinion so I love to hear others thoughts as well. So, keep them coming! This was a fun episode to see how things shook out post swap.

I didn't see Bret in the high risk category because his confessionals paralleled Jay's. Jay embodied the definition of Millennial, as Bret did Gen X. They are both at the same plane right now, so to speak. But, let's face it, Bret and Sunday are in the bottom 2, with 4 Millennials that get along pretty well. But, Sunday is the weakest of the group, so I see her going before Bret, tbh, should their tribe lose. They need to stay strong to make merge, then I see that Bret could be in for it. His arc is moving though, so I don't know if he'll ever get fully developed. I don't feel as though he's in as much danger of boot this week as I feel that Michelle or Taylor is, fwiw. One girls opinion.

We'll see! Thanks for your thoughts!

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12. "Episode 6 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 10-28-16 AT 08:23 PM (EST)

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | total

David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22
Chris Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 13
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 13
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 12
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 12
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 11
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 8
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 7
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 6
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 5
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 4
Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 3


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X

+ = Winner Quote

First of all, we get MORE meaty confessionals this episode. Jay has another million dollar quote, while Hanna and Ken have meaty confessionals. I LOVE that the editing is mixing it up, and letting us hear commitment, determination, and what drives them from multiple characters. We know we have one winner among them, but we have multiple characters that are real contenders as well as "journey" players.

I also felt that a lot was fleshed out in this episode. Michaela's commitment to team Millennial, while Zeke and Adam contemplate and make moves against team Millennial.

Figgy's edit had an arc at the beginning, then she went completely under the radar, then she began her final arc last week with a confessional of one. We noted that Taylor's arc was a far more severe arc which threw him in the most danger, but looking back, it's almost that FigTails were edited as one entity?

This week, she is the star of the show with 3 confessionals and a lot of air time. While her confessionals were basically narrational, her airtime told the story. The focus on her during the RC, and her failure, then "coming out" to the tribe about her romance, then her performance in the IC. Frankly, I am so glad that Figtails is over!

Zeke, Adam, Ken, and Taylor all had 2 confessionals. I'll start with Adam, who remains solidly with 2 confessionals again. Adam is the man in the middle sitting between two couples, one in a romance, the other strategically aligned. His first confessional tells us about his difficult position in the middle, he has the two options of either couple, but either way someone will come back unhappy and he's in a tough position. His last confessional: My mind is just reeling right now because Ken makes really good sense. The question is which side is going to be better for my game? I mean the whole world is probably screaming get out the power couple! What are you thinking? But, at this point I donít know if that makes sense for me. This is used as the final confessional pre-TC to create doubt and suspense. As a super-duper fan, Adam must know he has everything riding on this decision.

Adam is solid, and at this point, with his idol tucked in his pocket, getting rid of the weak link, Figgy, and we see him trying to amend his relationship with Taylor moving forward, Adam is SAFE for this week.

Zeke went from 3 to 2 confessionals. His first confessional is reveling in his good fortune that the GENX'rs voted one of their own out and now he's found himself in a position of power with Chris. His final confessional is foreshadowing as he weighs his position in the game....Michelle is a very dangerous player in this game because as Figgy announced to the world at that challenge, Iím so happy to see Michelle! Then, waits a beat, and Oh, and Zeke too. I am obviously at the bottom of the Millennials, so my gut tells me that getting rid of Michelle isnít bad for me, right? Because Michelle was plotting against me before and has connections to Taylor and Figgy. I never thought I would say this, but I think to go forward it might be necessary for me to gang up on the Millennial tribe.

We see where his head is at and we can see as things move forward that Zeke realizes his better chances to get to the end of the game lie with the GenX's he's making relationships with rather than the stronger Millennial kids. We see in the preview promo, that he is solidifying GenX relationships with David as well. This week Zeke is SAFE.

Ken also went from 3 to 2 confessionals, a solid presence in this episode. His first confessional was quite meaty and telling. Iíve been around the block little girl. I been around wayyyy longer than you. Itís OBVIOUS, and she was shocked she thought theyíd done a great job hiding it. These kids think they are in charge of it all and they think this is vacation, this is fun, Iím on Survivor, this is awesome, but that little couple of Taylor and Figgy arenít as cool as they think they are. Iím not going to sit on my ##### and hope and pray that things are okay, Iím going to make moves to make sure Iím okay.

With this confessional Ken is very aware of what he's up against and has his head solidly in the game. He did what he had to do and in the end, he made the moves that he said he was going to make to ensure his safety in the game. I noticed that he wrote, "Figeroo" on his voting parchment, so when he saw the 2nd Figgy vote come up, he already knew that he wasn't going home because his vote was the final vote. Must have been relieved!

Interesting when he went to Adam to convince him to keep him, he used David, his ally, in that argument, thus showing his cards to Adam, and he also used Adam's confessions back at him. Led Adam to say you are basically asking me to trust in people I don't know! His final confessional underlined his commitment, I could be going home but Iíve never gone down without a fight so at Tribal tonight I am going to be fighting for this.

Moving forward with Adam and Jessica, I see Ken as stable and SAFE, for now.

Taylor also moves from 3 to 2 confessionals. His first confessional is about wanting to expose their relationship because they are a power couple but they have the numbers so there is no reason to hide it. Arrogance. His final confessional: Tonight at TC, weíre gonna vote out Ken. But, who knows? Maybe Adam is double crossing us and heís way smarter than we think he is? Unlikely, but maybe? Once again, he's considering Adam turning, but not really. Arrogance. He was edited to be dumb, we never saw Taylor do anything to convince Adam to vote with we have to wonder, did he leave it all up to Figgy?

Taylor has truly been edited as the dumb little puppy dog, looking at instant gratification rather than longer term rewards. Is he edited to be the prototypical Millennial? Will he be solely focused on the revenge of Figtails, or will he START playing this game? If his tribe goes back to TC, he could be toast. I will put Taylor at slight RISK, as I don't see this tribe losing at the IC, when all they have to do is finish not last, and Figgy is now gone.

There were 5 people with 1 confessional this week. Michaela and David as two of the stars of the week dipped from 3 to 1 confessional each. David had a dip most likely because for once he is out of the cross hairs, but he still continued to get a lot of screen time especially with his performance in both challenges. His confessional: Coming back after TC was an absolute relief, Chris and I said goodbye to CC with the 2 Millennials. It was absolutely the right thing to do moving forward...Itís no longer Millennials vs Gen X, itís people who I trust vs people who you trust.

While we may have thought David's confessional was naive at the beginning of the show, now I look at it as foreshadowing, perhaps. David is a star of the show, and next week we see that he's throwing in 100% with Zeke as well. I think David is SAFE for next week.

Michaela had one confessional as well, I walked up to them two huddled up like two eskimos and out pops this idol. Jay is one of my alliance right now but do I think that Jay would play that immunity idol on me? Heck no. Right now I am not gonna tell anyone that Jay has an idol, but if I get wind of something going down, Iím snitching! This in and of itself is not particularly a negative confessional, but coming right after the Jay million dollar quote, Michaela is now seen as his foil, perhaps?

Couple this confessional with her performance at RC and the IC. First of all she performed brilliantly at both challenges, and I consider her to be quite the challenge beast, male or female. We heard Bret tell her again, "there's nothing you can't do"! Then, she helped Zeke and Michelle perform in their IC, and she explained it's all about team Millennial. Huge error, imo, as it alienates all of the GenX'rs. Additionally in the challenge, she berated Hannah and bossed her around, in a very condescending way, to the point of bullying? Perhaps I felt that way after Hanna's anxiety attack at the challenge and then later hearing her confessional. I was sympathetic to Hanna, and then watching Michaela dictate to her what she could and couldn't do, despite WINNING, it still made me defensive and sympathetic toward Hanna.

While I certainly appreciate some GOOD snark, all of which Michaela delivers on, I think she's crossing a line here, or at least entering a gray zone as to becoming villainous. We heard Jay with a stellar confessional, and then along comes Michaela, who tells us that she would snitch, so she becomes the foil to his plan, and the same can be said regarding Hanna. We had some good insight into her anxiety and how she plans to manage it moving forward and we are meant to root for her, but then we see how she's treated by the superior Michaela, and it seems as if she's the foil for Hanna as well.

Her lack of social awareness and sensitivity to others, could kill her in the ultimate social game. I am pretty sure that Jay, Will, and Hanna all are not too fond of Michaela. Right now, however, in her tribe the Millennials do have the numbers and Jay/Michaela, and Will all seem team Millennial. *ETA: I have decided to place Michaela at slight RISK, her sneaking up on Jay and Will could spell trouble for Michaela sooner rather than later, but I think she will get by.

Jessica had one confessional, stable from last week. Figgy and Taylor are going to vote for Ken, but clearly, this canít happen because I need Ken to move forward, heís got my back and Iíve got his, and if Ken went home I would be the next one to go.
. This is straight narration. But, while she seems in good stead on her tribe, with Ken and Adam, as the only girl, she could be in trouble if she causes their tribe to lose in a challenge. For this reason, I will put her at SLIGHT RISK.

Jay drops from 2 confessionals last week to 1 this week. But, what a confessional he had, a million dollar quote: Everyone is hungry, everyone is grumpy, but I gotta stay focused on this game because you know I have this passion inside of myself that says you gotta take care of your family. So, I got my mom and my sister, so I never had a dad or nothing, so to me it was like I gotta take care of these two beautiful ladies. People say that Millennials are just selfish and they just want to do whatever they want, (crying, wiping tears), but itís not true, (cue the soft sympathetic reveal music), I gotta do this for my family. Iím gonna win Survivor (music gets more loud and dramatic to underline this statement of ďgoing to win S.)

We then see Jay hunting in the brush as Will stands over asking him if he sees it....

Jay continues: A hidden immunity idol is the only cushion. I need to find this thing. music picks up the pace....and I am searching EVERYWHERE to find this thing ....there is this little green symbol, and I am what the he!! is that? And, I see the stamp and I know itís got to be here somewhere...but, Iím like, Will, itís not here, what the Hell? but Iím looking at the thing, Iím looking at the tree then BOOM, he cracks it against the tree, Break this bamboo and then AH AHH AHHHHH (sings)....then I hear the Survivor song in the background, OH EH OH ~ HUMS IT, and I am just sitting there like this is FREAKING awesome! This is EPIC! This immunity idol means MOM, you just got one step closer to getting a house! Today is probably the best day Iíve had on Survivor, I am set right now!

I LOVED this confessional. Jay is such a committed and serious player and we have seen this from the start. While he bonded with Taylor, he told us how stupid Taylor was being getting in a showmance with Figgy. Then, we saw him collaborate with Michelle and orchestrate the Mari boot. We've also seen him get along with everyone including Zeke and company. I would say with an idol in his pocket, the proper motivation, and determination could land Jay right in the winners circle. Even despite Michaela. And, Will appears to be his little side kick at this point...

If Jay's tribe goes to TC next week, he's SAFE.

Hanna was the next player with one confessional. We saw what happened to her at the RC, when she was sitting out. Bret was seen as sympathetic to her through the ordeal, and Sunday was seen as sympathetic toward her after the ordeal. The 2 genX'rs on her tribe. Michaela was seen as bossy and condescending.

Hanna's confessional was meaty as well, and also got the soft, supportive and sympathetic music: I canít help that I am a person that has anxiety. Of course itís embarrassing, when you are collapsing and you arenít even in the challenge. There were game thoughts like, I canít seem weak, thatís the worst part, like I canít seem this weak in front of my tribe. My brain is just so exhausted, thereís not a moment where you just get to breathe out and like, okay, I am going to take 5 minutes out from Survivor and just like take a breathe. And, so now I have to keep going. Perception is reality, I have to keep saying Iím good. So, that people know that I am good. So that it doesnít become a hindrance to my game.

We are meant to sympathize with her! So, being in the numbers, Hanna WILL most likely make it to merge. If she makes it to merge, will she align with Michaela, or with Zeke/Adam and company? Hanna comes out from under the radar after being under for the prior 2 weeks. She's starting an arc. I see her as at SLIGHT RISK, especially if she has another anxiety attack in a challenge and causes her tribe to lose.

Those falling under the radar:

1. Will: He remains under the radar for 3 weeks running, but he seems to be trusted by Jay, who now has an idol and numbers. I see him as SAFE.
2. Chris: Falls 3, that's significant. This is the first time he's gone under the radar. That could spell trouble for him, especially since we see David bonding with Zeke, his new BFF. But, this could also be a positive sign for Chris. He's out of the cross hairs and settling back down for later? I see Chris as safe for this week. He's with Zeke, and he's with David, who he knows has friends that could protect him come merge. SAFE.
3. Bret: Bret had a little story arc the past two weeks, now falls from 2 confessionals to zip. He's on a tribe with 2 GenX'rs and 4 Millennials. He knows how Michaela feels about that. He's AT RISK!
4. Michelle: She also falls from 2 to zip this week. We see Zeke plotting against her. She got ALOT of visuals doing well in the challenges, especially with the RC. She got called out as Figgy's BFF, and now Figgy is gone. We see Zeke, who already bonded with Chris, is now going to bond with David next week. If this tribe goes to TC next week, I see Michelle as toast. HIGH RISK
5. Sunday: She's been under the radar for the past 3 weeks. She really doesn't have much of a story. We did see her in the RC, and then being sympathetic to Hanna. But, let's face it, she's not bringing much to the tribe and we know that Michaela is against her. We know that Michaela values strength and contribution in challenges. If her tribe goes to TC, she could be toast. HIGH RISK.

SAFE: Adam, Zeke, Ken, David, Jay, Will, Chris

Slight RISK: Taylor, Jessica, Hanna, Michaela

AT RISK: Bret (As he has more to offer in challenges, I see Bret at risk rather than at high risk. But, for the same reason, they could choose to boot him first, especially if they start thinking that the merge is looming.)

High RISK: Michelle, Sunday

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10-30-16, 08:08 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Episode 6 Confessionals"
This thread continues to be a must read. You do a great job, FP, giving life to the numbers.

I think the next vote will be ver straightforward and only depends on which tribe goes to TC. Michelle, Taylor, Brett and Sunday are at High Risk. I like your thoughts that Michaela could be at risk but it would be silly to vote her out right now.

Chris could be the biggest surprise vote. What if David feels he can really trust Zeke and Michelle and acts on his vow at the summit? The problem is that Zeke doesn't trust Michelle but maybe that changes.

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11-04-16, 11:50 AM (EST)
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14. "Episode 7 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 11-06-16 AT 08:51 AM (EST)

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | total

David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 24
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Chris Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 1 | 14
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | 12
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 12
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 9
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 9
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 6
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 5
Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 4


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X

+ = Winner Quote

WOW, what a surprise! But, Michaela was at risk solely on her confessionals. Her boot is prompting me to make an assessment of risk based on CONFESSIONAL counts alone, and then another combining the confessional tracker with the editing, and promos. See what, if anything, that can tell us!

Michaela fell from 3 to 1 confessional in the week prior to her boot, which does spell trouble. When we coupled it with what we saw, her confessional about snitching immediately after Jay's million dollar confessional and poignant insight, put her at risk at least from Jay and his side kick Will. And, that is indeed exactly what happened. It was a red flag. Let's see if we can't get the next one!

This week Jay has the starring role with 4 confessionals, and it's his idea to make the BIG move. His first confessional is about Bret, who he thinks would be just the type that he would run from after making bonfires on the beach. He's too funny, too lively, to be a funeral director. His second confessional was right after the IC loss, when he notes that the Millennials have to come together and decide which one of the GenX'rs it will be....but considering that Bret keeps lying, sorry, he'll have to go. His third confessional is the revelation: Michaelaís got seashells, itís like a football play, you know what I am saying? Okay, sheís like, okay, post merge we are eliminating this person and then sheís like thereís gonna be 4 seashells left, which is us. And, Michaela is a smart, thatís the problem. (Just as we see Michaela say, "yaíll are 3 people I feel like I can trust and I donít feel there are any other people that I can trust in this game..." Jay continues: Michaela is a huge threat cause sheís good in challenges, sheís a smart chick. So, I have this epiphany of saying, BOOP, Michaela should go HOME. Before the merge! See an iguana raise up on a rock and look around...

The editing has really honed in on Jay this episode. I noticed when they first came to the Ikabula beach, it was Jay that they focused in on. At the challenges, he got a lot of screen time. Now we see why...he's talking big move here! Finally, his last confessional: Iím nervous. Michaela is a great alliance and Iíve been with her since day one. And, I still donít trust Bret. Itís crazy when you make a big move cause you are thinking, is this the right logical thing to do? Survivor is not a joke. This decision tonight could honestly mold the rest of my game either for a win or for a loss. Iím freaking out! And, we hear crescendo music playing and getting more and more frantic....

Jay casts doubt as to which way he'll go tonight. But, Jiffy practically hit us over the head with the comments about both of the other tribes voting out one in the majority, and will they do the same thing. All foreshadowing of the events going down.

This is a huge leap for Jay, this week going to 4 confessionals, but all along he's been a consistent player. Seems that he's taking his game to another level with this big move. We know he has an idol in his pocket, but from the looks of things he could be in trouble. WE hear that Hanna is out for revenge. Next, we see that Chris and company want to target and get rid of millennial numbers. He's good in challenges. He's clearly AT RISK. But he does have an idol. Will he be targeted, or will he play his idol?

Taylor, Hanna, and Michaela both had 3 confessionals. Michaela was the boot, so we got a lot of her thoughts, namely that she didn't want to be the one that others wanted to get out. Too late! She noted how focused she was and how intense. Too late. And, with the seashells she showed how smart and strategic she was, too late. Toast.

Taylor, as the one that was blindsided the most last week, next to Figgy, got 2 immediate confessionals that were reactionary to the events. First of all how TC sucked because now Figgy is not around and how he misses her, and then the next one regarding how it's all revenge right now, from here on out. Then his last confessional showed us that he could care less about politics and strategy....I hate talking about politics. No matter what one group of people is never going to be happy. Iím not so concerned about who is going to be president, I just really donít want to put my hope in politics.. Clearly, there is no strategy to this guy, but revenge is something that he can buy into, and he is OUT for it.

Taylor goes from 2 to 3 confessionals, and he's a big competitive threat in this game. WE hear that Chris and company want to target a millennial, he's in the triforce. He's at RISK. I fear for Taylor as Figgy was his only strategy and now that she's gone, he's alone, but we know the merge is looming and will he be another side kick for Jay? That is certainly what I am betting on IF he isn't booted at the merge.

Hanna jumps from 1 to 3 confessionals, clearly this arc is underway. She was first mostly narrational, telling us about how they are appearing united but it's going to be one of the GenX'rs, she doesn't trust Bret regarding being a Funeral Director. Second confessional is that even though he looks and walks like a cop, she just wants the other Millennials to be sketched out by him. Then her last confessional tells us about the idea of splitting the vote, girls vote Bret, boys vote Sunday, then second vote to get Bret out.

She had a strong presence in the show as well. We heard her reaction first when the tribe with Figgy voted out appeared..."WOW". Then, next week, we hear in the promos that Hanna is vowing revenge on Jay and company. Hanna has a spike in confessionals, but she'll be reuniting with Zeke and Adam. She's certainly non-threatening in challenges, she'll be a number for others. She ought to be safe, despite her spike, but I will put her at slight RISK. But, clearly her arc is underway.

David, Zeke, and Bret all had 2 confessionals. David is still one of the characters and stars of the show. His first confessional was Sitting on the beach with the Vanua tribe, if we lose the next IC, Michelle is absolutely the one to go. But, I would not put it past Chris to try and pull a fast one and vote me out instead of Michelle. (See Chris shaking a tree to get coconuts, trying to shake up the game? ) But, I do feel like I have a stronger bond with Zeke than I do with Chris cause frankly, I think we are cut from the same cloth. (See them walking on the beach....) So, I am thinking of showing him my idol. That would establish a tremendous amount of trust. But, I hate sharing knowledge that I have an idol, itís a very risky move, or itís a great move! You just really never know.

A significant confessional for sure especially since we now know that SEG manipulated it in that it actually occurs post merge. David will bridge together Ken, Jessica, and Zeke will bridge with Adam, and I could see these folks going far. David's last confessional was just fluff at the RC...about Jeff underestimating the reward and he'd be raving about this even if it was an LA restaurant!

David has options for next week, when it's merge time! l think he is SAFE.

Zeke is also in a good spot. He is steady from last week with 2 confessionals each week. His first confessional this week was: David told me that he had a hidden immunity idol! Which, I was just delighted to hear, right? Cause if you canít have an HII, itís good that someone that you are close to has a HII. I think David and I could have a future in this game together. He has put his life in my hands and Iím going to take very very good care of his life for the time being. We know that this bond will help to bind these two. Zeke's second confessional was in regard to the reward challenge where he channeled his inner fat kid, to eat as much as he could because the more calories he can consume now, the more it will benefit him later.

I see Zeke is making friends left and right. He's associated with Adam and Hanna from team Millennial, both of which will most likely be happy to pick back up with him. Then, he's now gained Chris and David as ally's that he can foster post merge. I see Zeke as SAFE.

Brett: He is one that really escaped with his life, this past week. He and Sunday are now indebted to Jay and Will. Brett had 2 confessionals where as last week he had zilch. He's beginning a new story arc with 2, and that in and of itself could put him at risk. HIs first confessional was regarding his interrogation by Hanna, but he won't divulge the truth cause he knows that policemen don't necessarily do well on Survivor.

His second confessional was that he and Sunday were going to have to write each others names down, he hated having his fate in the hands of others, but But, it is Survivor and you never know whatís gonna happen. Touchee.

Brett is a big boy, that Jay is squarely suspect of and doesn't trust. He went from 0 to 2 confessionals. He's at SLIGHT RISK.

Chris, Adam, Jessica, Michelle, Sunday, and Will all had 1 confessional. Chris' was straight narration of the events at the RC, guys are animals, Michelle is still human eating with a knife and fork. Chris had 0 confessionals last week, so he's beginning a new story arc. He's beginning it in a very low profile way. He has ties to old GenX'rs, and to a millennial. He could be a challenge threat, I'll put him at Slight RISK.

Adam did damage control at the top of the episode with Taylor. His lone confessional was regarding he did what he had to do, and got himself in a position of moving forward with some GenX'rs. ETA: I should add, however, that he takes a bit of a down turn when we see what transpires between Taylor, Jessica, and Ken. Clearly, he's seen as more strategic and that may not be a good thing. So, I'm going to change my assessment and say that he should be golden. He's about to be reunited with Zeke and company and Zeke's new friend, David, is tight with Ken/Jessica too. SAFE

Jessica had an interesting confessional that was used to create doubt regarding the boot if their tribe lost. Jessica has been stable with one confessional for each of the last 3 weeks. Her confessional was in regard to the dimwitted by truthful Taylor as compared to the more strategic Adam. She and Ken are just gathering as much info as they can to make the right decision should their tribe lose. Being a female who will be seen as far more non-threatening, and one who is closely associated with Ken and David, who have new options, I see her as SAFE.

Michelle, otoh, has one confessional and she's coming out from under the radar last week. She's starting a new story arc, will it be her final story arc? Her lone confessional was: The boys and their bodily functions, her mom taught her manners, but she is not going to change who she is for the game. This is a game about adapting and change, so I'd say this is an ominous confessional for Michelle, that they chose to present. I'd say she is at RISK.

Sunday also comes out from under the radar where she had been for prior 3 weeks. Her lone confessional was about feeling isolated and having her fate in the hands of others, holding back tears, then she cries, ending with but that's Survivor and we both know it. She is beginning a new story arc, will it be her last? As a female, however, she is totally non-threatening and she does have a little bond with Hanna, and one with Brett. I'll say that she is SAFE for this week.

Like Sunday, Will has one confessional after being under the radar for the past 3 weeks. Could be beginning a new or final story arc. His confessional was to add doubt as to what Jay would decide to do regarding booting out Michaela or Brett. Michaela is so intelligent, and every time I talk to her she is so methodical, I just need to pick the right time to get her out because I really like Michaela, sheís a great positive vibe to have around camp and I donít think any of us want to see her go.
I see Will's confessional at this point as far more ominous than Sunday's, however, because he is male, he's tighter with Jay and Taylor and Michelle. But, he does not appear to be much of a challenge threat, constantly sitting out challenges? I will say that Will is at RISK.

There was one DAW that goes under the radar this episode falling from 2 to 0 confessionals and that was Ken. Ken has been a player in this season and now falls under the radar right before the merge. He's the biggest challenge threat out there. He has no idol, but he has a BFF with one. If he doesn't win immunity, it's not hard to see him getting voted out as the biggest threat to win challenges. Ken is definitively AT RISK. You could see how it could happen if votes are split, and Jay receives votes but plays his idol, then Ken could be bounced.

SAFE: David, Zeke, Adam, Jessica, Sunday

SLIGHT RISK: Hanna, Brett, Chris

AT RISK: Jay, Taylor, Michelle, Will, Ken

ETA: An assessment just based off of the confessional counts alone!
SAFE: Zeke, Jessica
SLIGHT RISK: David, Chris, Taylor, Adam, Michelle, Sunday, Will
AT RISK: Ken, Jay, Bret, Hanna

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11-12-16, 09:40 PM (EST)
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15. "Episode 8 Confessionals, "I'm the Kingpin""
episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | total

David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 27
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 20
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 19
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17
Chris Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | 16
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 3 | 15
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | * | 12
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | 11
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 11
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 3 | 11
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 2 | 8X
Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 6
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | * | 5


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X

+ = Winner Quote

Wow! This week Adam makes a huge leap with 7 confessionals jumping up 6 from last week. His first confessional he talks about his excitement about the merge, and how it will separate the great players from the mediocre players and he hopes he's a former. His next confessional is the one that tells us about him finding the advantage, which along with his idol, he declares that he thinks he is in one of the best positions in the game! (Never a good sign to appear too confident!).

His third confessional is about waking up and catching Taylor stealing food, he's going to make the most of this to bro down with him and talk some game. He plants the Will is closer to your boy Jay, so let's vote him out so you can be his number one again. If he can convince Taylor to vote his way, he'll have control of this game.

Fourth confessional was post IC, his plan just completely blew up in his face, so gives Will credit, and he'll have to come up with another plan. The fifth confessional he notes that he layed the ground work for what he thought was a good plan but it unravels the day of TC. He had a feeling that he might be playing too hard, he was, so now he has to scramble. He's willing to work with anyone in this tribe as long as it buys him another 3 days.

The sixth confessional created doubt....he needed Zeke and the other GenX'rs to vote with him, but they are back and forth on the vote. If they can't get it together he needs plan B, see if Taylor would vote anyone else out.

Then the last confessional: Hanna is telling him he just needs to relax, but he knows his position is tenuous, but the good news is, he has an idol. But, he doesn't want to play it while he has the numbers because then he would look like a chump.

Clearly, with a spike this big, his arc is UP and running. He's at RISK!

Zeke jumps from 2 confessionals last week to 4. He first talks of his elation at the news of the merge: I am so stoked! For so many days I was down on the bottom, I didnít even know that I was going to make the merge. Now here it is! Clouds have cleared and Iím utterly thrilled, (see Zeke do a little split jump in the air!). I am a little nervous, because who knows what connections others have made at their other beaches? But for now, Iím just excited to be here!

Confessional 2: Next Zeke talks about his nerdy group back together and then how threatening Jay is....I am delighted to see my old nerdy pals, Hanna and Adam..You know itís almost good that we got split up because I have intel from Vanua, Adam has intel from Takali, and Hanna is tapped into the intel from Jay at Ikabula.
Having my nerd voting block, I should be feeling great. But, Jay worries me. Heís the locus of power right now because Jay is very charming. He looks at you with those deep brown eyes and he smiles the surfer smile and itís very enchanting. Itís making me nervous to see all of the dudes, you know, Ken, and Chris and Tay everyone getting taken in by this Jay charm. He sort of has this mystique about him, that everyone is drawn to...He controls Will outright, he probably controls Michelle, and I am just like if this bro alliance happens, Iím in trouble.

HIs third confessional relays that he just heard Jay and Taylor talking about getting Adam out, that would throw a wrench into his carefully laid plans. And, his final confessional: I was hoping to preserve my nerd voting block, but Adam is the most frustrating person to work with....I don't know what he is up to so maybe we should just vote him out.

Zeke goes full circle, from elation to get back with his nerds, to pinpointing the dangerous Jay, to worrying about his nerd voting block, to then suggesting voting one out because he doesn't know what he is up to. I see Zeke as SAFE, despite the hike, because he's a man with friends. Everyone seems to like him, and everyone seems to really need him.

Four people had 3 confessionals: Brett, Jay, Taylor, and David. Brett first talks about the merge, he's thrilled, went from terrified of being voted out to getting back with his buddy, Chris. His second was narrational, doesn't know who he can trust, thought he could trust Jay, but notices him with his buddy millennials. Then finally the one regarding catching Taylor stealing the food, but he doesn't want to be the one to squeal on him. Then he proceeds to tell them all the next morning, and then again at TC. Brett went from 2 to 3 confessionals, looks like his arc is under way. But, for right now, I'd say there are bigger fish to fry, so I will place him as SAFE.

Jay had the first confessional of the episode with feeling good about his Michaela vote out: I made a big ##### move tonight and I thought honestly I would be punched int he face. But, Michaelaís a closer, she closed on every single challenge, I needed to do this premiere just to be safe and uh, Iím pretty proud of myself right now.

His second was about feeling so excited to be back with his Michelle and Taylor, along with Will, and he's pretty sure he has Brett and Sunday, he's the kingpin, no one knows and he wants to keep it that way. Finally, the last one is narrational, he's chilling and Tails comes to him and tells him that Adam is coming for Will.

Jay went from 4 to 3 confessionals, so he is down one. Jay has an idol, but Jay is in the thick of it. I will put Jay at RISK.

Taylor has 3 confessionals, he's the same as last week. His first was that he was pretty good with mason jars, canning, so he decides to help himself, he's going to try and eat as much of the feast as he possibly can. The next confessional was about Adam....I don't want to work with Adam, he wrote his woman's name down, but Adam thinks we are buddy/buddy, and he wants to keep it that way. He's gunning for Will. He's a fan of Survivor revenge and he wants to blindside Adam. And, finally the last confessional: Adam has a good idea his name has been dropped, but it's too late, he's 100% about revenge, he's got his boys back and they are going to beat Adam up.

Taylor had a lot of presence in this episode, but he's set on revenge, and he apparently thinks stealing the food is funny. I see his confessionals as stable. While he is in the Tri-force, public enemy numero uno, I am dubious about him leaving next week. But, he could so I will put him at slight RISK.

David climbs up one from last week, he's got 3 this week. His first confessional, the voice of reason: Already people are floating the name seems like we are all onn board with it, but it is SO early. And, we are at a point in the game where every body is trying to carve out a path to the final tribal. So, thereís going to be a ton of scrambling. People are going to start to get unsure and that is when the game gets crazy. His second confessional: What needs to be broken up is the upper eshalon of the Millennials, and thatís Jay, Michelle and Taylor. Itís just a question of getting everybody on the same page because in the back of our minds itís well, there are idols out there, right? His final confessional: We were going to try and save Adam and then paranoia sets in and the panic and that little seed of doubt sets in and can grow into a giant forest of doubt....see a snake.

David is in a good spot, and he's telling the story as the events unfold. He's SAFE.

Chris, Hanna, Will, and Michelle had 2 confessionals. Chris is up one from last week. Chris tells us about his position: I havenít decided if the merge is going to be a good thing or a bad thing for me...everything was going really well at Vanua, and we were on a roll...the fact that there were 2 tribes and then a swap and now we are back into this 13, and we are trying to figure out this relationship is extremely difficult. Dave, Zeke, and Myself are meshing pretty well, thatís a pretty good core group right there to work with, but then I want to regroup with Bret and Sunday, and figure out what the next move is.. Then his next one is narrational and observational: that core group of M's is pretty tight, he's underestimated them, they need to get one of the out.

Chris has options with Zeke, David, Bret, Sunday. He's a threat for challenges but right now he's stable and I think SAFE.

Hanna had two confessionals, dropping from 3 last week to 2 this week. The first one about getting revenge on Jay, and the next one about Adam's name is getting thrown out there, she knew it would happen because he couldn't just play with the weirdos, he had to sit at the cool kids table.

Hanna is sitting pretty right now. Not a good sign that Hanna, of all people, is advising Adam.

Hanna is safe at this point.

Will had 2 confessionals, up one from last week. His first was that he's in trouble, needs to win the IC. Next was how stoked he was about winning the IN, Adam has to go. Will had no confessionals for a while, now jumps 1 to 2, this is most likely his final arc. Will is AT RISK!

Michelle: too little too late.

Ken, Jessica, and Sunday all fly under the radar this week, staying out of the drama. I think that they are all safe, for now. When they start up again, however, it could spell that the end is near? Time will tell.

SAFE: Zeke, Brett, David, Chris, Hanna, Ken, Jessica, Sunday
At RISK: Adam, Jay, Will

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michel2 2031 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-16, 04:02 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Episode 8 Confessionals, "I'm the Kingpin""
That'd pretty much how I see it, FP. Great breakdown of the possibilities. Combining your "at risk' players with Jeff trumpeting a spicy Tribal Council then can it be anyone else but Adam?
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Flowerpower1 1904 desperate attention whore postings
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11-13-16, 06:22 PM (EST)
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17. "Random Thoughts"
LAST EDITED ON 11-13-16 AT 06:23 PM (EST)

One thing that needs to be mentioned this week re: confessionals is that Zeke goes from 2 to 4 confessionals, and 4 is the largest amount he's ever had. That is significant I think. While I think he is in a great spot for the moment, I feel like it is a red flag. So, I thought I would mention it. Also, when I saw the promo this week, this caught my attention:

Sandwiched right in the middle of the promo that is all about Taylor/Jay gunning for Adam, and Adam being arrogant toward them.

A red flag that I noticed. FWIW.

Also, I thought I would organize a few things regarding known targets for this week.


1. Zeke: He's noticed that the enchanting and full of charm Jay, who is taking in the dudes; Ken, Chris, and Tay. "If this bro alliance happens, then he's in trouble.
2. David: He notes that the upper crust of the Millennials needs to be broken up: Jay, Taylor, Will. (Does this include Ken/Jessica/Chris)?
3. Bret: Questions Jays loyalties after witnessing how close they are
4. Hanna: wants revenge on Jay for blindsiding her with the Michaela boot.


1. Ken suggests going after Taylor, (?Jessica, David?)
2. Chris notes that everybody is pissed at Taylor for stealing food
3. Zeke: Mentions that he is down with voting Taylor


1. Taylor wants revenge for the Figgy boot
2. Hanna notes that Adam is the worst alliance mate ever
3. Zeke says that he doesn't know what he's doing so maybe it's time to vote him out
4. Jay says Adam must go. Now wants revenge for Michelle?
5. Will says Adam must go.


1. Adam wants to target to weaken Jay
2. Identified by the core GenXr's as one of the top Millennials along with Jay/Tay

Chris and Brett: Seen on screen when Jay talking about getting the Gen Xr's

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Flowerpower1 1904 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-16, 08:33 PM (EST)
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18. "Episode 9 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-16 AT 08:35 PM (EST)

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | total

David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 28
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 22
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 3 | 7 | 22
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21X
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 20
Chris Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 18
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | * | * | 12
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 11
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | * | 3 | 8
Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 2 | 8X
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21X

+ = Winner Quote

This week Jay steals the top spot with 7 confessionals while Adam drops back down to 2. Hmmm? Jay had the first confessional of the episode when he spoke of losing his most loyal and trustworthy people. The Millennial flippers don't even know that they are on the bottom. The stupid Zeke, Hanna, and you three are gonna match up to the other 6, idiots.

His second confessional: was about how he was blindsided, he could be next but he has the idol in his back pocket. Third confessional: He's on the bottom after losing his most trusted ally, Michelle, he just lost the RC, he needs to talk to Adam while the other gen'xrs are on reward. Fourth confessional: I talked to Adam, he's a huge jerk, threw in my face that I'm on the bottom, hopefully I can win the IC, if not, I'm in trouble, they are gunning my way.

Fifth confessional: Jay continues to exemplify the classic millennial expressing how delighted he was to hear Sunday mention Jessica's name; he's got to stay positive, give good energy, and, you know the universe should be okay with giving it back. Confessional six: This was a comment on him not winning immunity so his life is pretty much in Sunday's hands. His final confessional: This was about how it's either him or Taylor. But, he's still throwing punches and not out of the ring yet. He has three options with his idol, keep it and wear it for himself, give it to Tails, but they could split votes and then he could go, or just sit tight and save it for another rainy day.

Jay had the biggest target on his back after last week. They suspected that he indeed had an idol. He's far more strategic than the annoying Taylor, but Taylor is just a down right their and scumbag. Will is not threatening in any way (yet he is the one that won the IN???), so he is off the table. Jay manages to defer the vote out, and saves his idol for another day. Next week we see that the word gets out, that Jay has the idol. But, since they have pretty much eliminated the tri-force, he could be more valuable to someone, like Sunday or Zeke, to make a move against someone more powerful. But, with a 7 confessional spike, up from 3 last week, there is no doubt about it, Jay continues to be at risk.

Taylor had 4 confessionals. You know, I was disappointed we didn't see if anything ever came out of his summit bonding with David and Chris. They really seemed to play that association up, especially with he and David, yet it fizzles.

Sunday, of all people had 3 confessionals! Up from 1 last week. She's narrating in that her first confessional tells us that it is an odd group of people together on reward. There is a solid alliance with her, Brett and Chris. But, they don't really 100% trust David, Ken, and Jessica. The GenX'rs are fractured. She wants to make a proactive move for herself and take some control of the game. Her second confessional tells us how she plans to do it...I am in the position right now where Jessica and I are like friendly hellos, but I donít trust her....sheís nice, we connect as moms, but I just think because I voted for her, I just feel like she is really gonna want to get me out. One of us is going to get the other out. But, I can definitely use Jay, because right now heís feeling like he is at the bottom. We have a really good relationship from our time at Ikabula, so I just need to talk to Jay. Then, her final confessional: If it were up to her she would 100% get rid of Jessica, but she doesn't have the numbers right now to make the move. It's a bummer because she could use Jay to make that move.

This was very insightful to the audience. We know that Sunday is out to get Jessica, and we see that she tells Bret, she tells Jay, who I am sure told Taylor and Will, and Bret will talk to Chris. We see next week that Chris tells David, they need to get Jessica out. So, one way or the other, Sunday is at the root of it. She spiked from 1 to 3 which does put her at risk. Once Jessica and her boyfriends hear of it, it will be civil war. But, with a spike of 3 from 1, more face time puts Sunday at slight risk herself!

Adam, Chris, and Hanna all had 2 confessionals. Adam goes from 7 to 2 confessionals. He's had a big peak, so I can't help but wonder if he's going to be out soon. We saw him being nasty and stupid to Jay, and we heard Hanna and Zeke comment on his stupidity, and how they considered voting him out next. HIs first confessional: During Tribal Council Taylor and Jay blew up my spot and then they gunned for me and when they gunned for me all bets were off. Even if I am at the bottom of Gen X it certainly feels a lot better than being out of the game, which is exactly where you tried to put me. Then, Iím worried that I might be playing too aggressively that I might be playing too hard. But, I have to prove my loyalty to my alliance because I have a much stronger bond with Gen X, than I certainly ever will with Jay at this point.

Jay talks about how he's a lot closer to the Gen X but is he really? I wonder because of how he still played with Taylor. That surely blew up at TC, and it looks like he's got some "'splaining" to do. I say that Adam is still at risk.

Chris had 2 confessionals as well. His first one cast doubt on Adam: I was happy to see the votes come down the way they did because that means I am gaining some traction and some control in this majority group. I feel comfortable enough that there are some solid people in our group but people like Adam are really floating in between and are really lost in where they needed to go and it scares me, I donít like it. Then, his next one was straight narration regarding his buddy Bret, knocking down the drinks on reward, "he was just letting loose, he's a big, loud guy!"

Chris seems to be the defecto leader of the Gen Xr's, well at least because Sunday is with Bret, and Bret is with Chris, and Zeke is with Chris. Next week we know that Zeke will be in the middle with the Gen X civil war that comes about because Sunday is bent on Jessica. I think Chris is safe for this week.

Hanna also had 2 encouraging confessionals talking about her evolvement and learning curve in the game. Her first one is reactionary regarding concealing her vote and going with the majority: Iíve taken my game into my own hands, like I want to do it justice. Iíve loved the show since I was 14, and Iím coming out here and I am playing with the intention to win, to build a resume, and itís so fun! Itís like I am finally getting to play and last night I realized that I could do it! And, itís addicting, like I want to pull off another vote and now I finally get the chance to make some moves. Then, immediately after the reward challenge where her team lost in a blindside, she notes: I was on such a high from pulling off my first blindside vote and knew I wanted to keep Will and Jay closer to me cause they are on the bottom but to make such a glaring mistake it takes me back a step. But, If I want to stay in the game, I have to prove that I can handle this!

Hanna is up after TC, then pulled right back down to reality with the RC loss. I also noted she seemed like she was a bit panicky with the revelations regarding Adam and his advantage at TC. Slow and steady, Hanna. Right now, however, Hanna is safe.

David, Zeke, Bret, and Will all had one confessional. David, the voice of reason, relates his thinking as to what they are going to do at TC. The battle will be between Jay and Taylor, noting that Will is safe because he's seen as a non-threat. But, he notes that an idol could come into play and then whoever they wanted would go home. So, the safest thing to do would be to split the votes, he's confident that one of Jay or Taylor will go home.

David seems to give us confessionals that tells us exactly how he is thinking, it seems that they are his consensus...a positive sign to his significance in this story, perhaps. David is safe for now.

Zeke's confessional shows the reaction of a smart player. He is commenting on the stupidity of our super-duper fan, Adam. Adam canít be smart like the rest of us are trying to bring Jay and Will back into the fold. Adam has to gloat and make Adam feel crappy and Iím just like, Adam, donít be an idiot and make people feel like they are on the bottom because that is when they vote against you.

But, I love what we are getting here. Zeke and by association Hanna, are trying to get Will and Jay back with them, to possibly start to knock off a few Gen X'rs, perhaps? Hmmm? Interesting. Wonder what their onion looks like? Zeke is in good with Chris, but Bret/Sunday? Ken/Jessica? Time will tell. For now, Zeke is safe.

Bret's one confessional was in relation to the reward challenge and his partaking in the spoils, namely the drinks. He had a full belly and he was going to drink as much as he could!

Bret is appearing safe for the time being, he's reunited with his buddy, Chris, he's winning rewards and getting to eat and more importantly, drink. He has Sunday in his back pocket. But, I look at Bret as a number, and if the Millennials swing the pendulum back toward the GenX way, then he could be at risk. He's gone from 3 to 1 confessional this week, his face time is slipping, but I think Bret is still at risk.

Will also had one confessional telling us why he chose to sit and eat, instead of try to win the IC. He slips one from last week. Will is still associated with the Tri-force, but he's been identified as someone that is not so threatening. His final arc is under way, I say that Will is at slight risk.

Ken and Jessica had no confessionals. Ken is getting to know Hanna, which is a positive thing. But, going completely under the radar at a time when he's continuing to be a threat with challenges, uh, I dunno? Jessica, we hear nothing from her when she is being noticed AND targeted. She could be in trouble. I will place Ken at slight risk, and Jessica at risk.

Here is what the confessionals tells us:

SAFE: Chris, Hanna, David, Zeke,

SLIGHT RISK: Sunday, Will, Ken

AT RISK: Jay, Adam, Bret, Jessica

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Outsider32 576 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-16, 11:48 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Episode 9 Confessionals"
I didn't get that they were trying to bring Jay and Will back in the fold. It seemed he was saying Adam can't be smart like the rest of us are because he's trying to bring Jay and Will back in the fold. I don't think Zeke wants to take Jay to the end because Jay has an idol and Jay's a threat to win a f4 IC with him, Hannah, and Will. He's already said he didn't want a bro alliance happening also.
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Flowerpower1 1904 desperate attention whore postings
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11-26-16, 09:18 PM (EST)
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20. "Episode 10 confessionals...."
LAST EDITED ON 11-26-16 AT 09:25 PM (EST)

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10a| total

David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 31
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 24
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 24
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 23
Chris Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20X
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 15
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | * | * | * | 12
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 13
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 2 | 13
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 9
Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 2 | 8X
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21X

+ = Winner Quote

WOW, what a season this is turning out to be! Have to say that I have been very pleasantly surprised, and I have to agree with Jims though, it's nice that they are getting back to playing the game now that Taylor is gone. He sucked a lot of airtime away, like a good shield does. Now that he's gone, everyone is looking at new targets! I am going to split the two episodes that were back to back as 10a and 10b. I don't need to make a risk assessment after the 10a confessionals.

I do want to add that earlier in the season we had a boot that the confessionals pointed to, but the story did not, and then this week we have a story that pointed to the boot but NOT the confessionals. It goes to show you that all things need to be considered! Well done, EPMB, with the editing!

In the first part of the double header Zeke and David take the top spot. We can see that their story arcs are gaining ground, they both jump from one confessional last week to 3 this week. They are becoming more integral to the CURRENT events, where as last week it was all about Taylor, Adam, and Jay.

Zele's first confessional follows Adam's reaction to Taylor's boot and the TC events, Jay's reaction to the TC, Chris' new plan now that Taylor is out, and Will's proclamation that he's off of Jay's sinking ship and he's now with the life raft, Zeke. Now Zeke takes charge: I need to have the most power in the game and everything is about building relationships and there is no better way then building trust by revealing who has the idol. And, on top of that, a person with a hidden immunity idol has a major advantage in this game, (see Adam, see David), but if everybody knows that they have it, see Jay, that advantage decreases significantly. We want to get Jay to think heís the next one to go so he plays his idol, but in actuality, Chris wants to get Jess, you know weíve had these 2 nice votes with everyone voting together but now itís time to turn on each other. The opening shots have been fired and the war is about to get bloody. Zeke is preparing to take control, as he prepares for battle. He's placed himself nicely between sides...

Confessional 2: Chris wants to go after Jess, and David wants to go after Chris. This is what I am deeming the civil war. I am tight with Chris, but if this war is starting I want to have the power and control so now itís time to pit the gen Xírs against each other! His plan is exposed, to pit Chris' trio vs. David's trio, and to create suspense as to which side he'll align with!

He got the last confessional of the episode before TC, because wherever he decides to go will determine which side prevails...Right now I have what IĎve always wanted to have, which are options, right? My little clique of nerdy millennials can work with Chris, my Okie buddy, or I can work with David and make this huge move, but itís hard for me because I trust both of these guys. So, to win this game you have to know where you are going and you have to know who you need to get there. So, this next vote is about amassing the soldiers I need to march my army down the field. See the Survivors marching to tc.

He has a plan, I see Zeke as the one that is going on the offensive, while clearly, Chris thought it was he that was going on the offensive. Surprise! I also do see Zeke as a strategist who had planned for this scenario a few moves back...

David also got a bump up from 1 to 3 confessionals this week, his arc is rising, parallel to Zeke's. First confessional: Iím on a journey and itís about coming out of this game a better person than when I came in, as my whole life I have had a fear of death, but, itís morphed into a fear of life, and itís why I am here. I am here to start taking control of my life and I think if any experience can give me that power, itís the game of Survivor. Ken and I had some alone time and he really gives me a sense of confidence within myself and I am realizing just in life and in this game, you have to take control of my own destiny. But, timing is everything in the game of Survivor. But, the threesome of Chris, Bret, and Sunday is too strong. Iím uncomfortable with how deep in this game they have made it. Itís time for us to make a big move...

This confessional plus the airtime we see of David in the show raises a very big red flag for me this week. We've always suspected it, but this really underlines it. David is the "journey player'. He is the one that is on a personal mission, and by playing the game he learns the lessons that he needs that will help him in his real life. He started the game afraid of everything, in a very neurotic way. But, he made friends with another quirky guy, Ken, and they've managed to survive. But, we saw him at the RC, wanting to spare everyone with his performance by volunteering to sit out, but with the encouragement of all his fellow players, he stays.

Again, after the reward, David is fragile and Ken sees it. He encourages him and reminds him just how far he's come. I believe that Ken is the foundation that David needed in this game and at this point I see Ken outlasting David. David even starts his first confessional with "I'm on a journey". Clearly, his neurosis has paralyzed him in his life, and this game is indeed helping him. We see how he's calmed down, somewhat, he's even performing much better in the challenges. In fact he WINS the IC! Which leads to his second confessional:

This IN can only be the beginning, it canít be the end. Itís a risk to put your foot down, but if I have anything to say about it, Chris will go home.

The IN represents the confidence he's attained through playing this game, it's symbolic of his journey. It cannot be the beginning because he has to maintain this new found confidence to navigate the rest of his life, to really start living, and to FINISH living his life to the fullest. So, he's taking his confidence in the game and it's fueling him to decide to make a move, now, to target Chris. (Just as Zeke is starting his initiative to his offense.)

HIs final confessional is about getting validation for his plan: Chris is targeting Jess, heís been targeting Jess since the beginning of the game, Jess is not safe as long as Chris is in this game.

He's set.

Adam, Jay, Chris, Hanna, and Jessica all had 2 confessionals. Adam is stable with 2 confessionals. He got the first reactionary confessional of the episode. He commented on how Jay and Taylor dragged his name through the mud, everyone knows about his advantage, and he wants to get Jay out so bad he can taste blood! Jay and Adam are really tied to each other now in the classic Survivor rivalry. So, the question is, when one is gone will the other follow immediately? Often, when they live to get one person out in particular, as soon as the person goes, then they follow. (ex. Chris goes, then Jessica goes immediately after. There are dozens of examples through the years...)

Adam's next confessional was about the reward and what getting a letter from home meant to him. It ended like this: Everyday that I stay here that I make it further in the game that I get closer to the end is another big win for me...just that little piece. Itís enough to keep me going, itís enough to get me through these last 2 weeks of the game.

This was a very positive confessional for me, he's now got what he needs to fuel him through the last 2 weeks of the game. But, can Adam continue to stay out of the cross hairs?

Jay had 2 confessionals, settling down nicely after being at the center of the drama first with Michaela, then Michelle, and next with Taylor. HIs first confessional was about how Taylor almost took him down with him, but the good thing is that he didn't play his idol so now no one thinks he has it. Which was promptly followed by Will telling Zeke, who told David and Hanna, who told Chris, Ken, Jess, who told Sunday/Bret. LOL. HIs last confessional was in regard to not winning the IC, going to TC, but knew if he felt in his gut that he was the target, he could still play his idol. Jay settled down very nicely and we can see that there are far bigger fish to fry now!

Chris had 2 confessionals. He went on the offensive as well and he targeted Jess, because 90% strategy and 10% he owes her. Well, we all saw where his plan led

Hanna got 2 confessionals, the same as last week, and hers were about her gaining confidence and starting to play this game. Her first one was about crushing on Ken....n Survivor you gotta find a way to connect with someone thatís drastically diffít from you, and Ken, look at him! and I do flirt with ken, you look at him, ken wouldnít have any crush on me, but maybe just maybe, yeah, I could see that. I have to think this little scene with Ken on the beach may have preceded her decision later to side with David/Ken instead of Zeke, perhaps?

Her second confessional was in regard to the elation she felt on winning reward but she still felt guilty about those left at camp...(Ken was at camp ). Regardless, she's empathetic and sensitive to others, and in Survivor that's a good thing!

Jessica had 2 confessionals after 2 weeks of flying under the radar! Clearly, her final story arc is underway. Her first confessional was about David wanting to vote out Chris, which she was thrilled about cause he's her arch nemesis, he needs to go! Then, when she is told that it's she that Chris is going after: I have been told point blank that Chris is voting me, and thatís a scary feeling because I feel heís got it out for me. Heís been gunning for me since the decision to vote Paul out, and if I get voted out I have to give away the legacy advantage but that is not happening cause I am a fighter. The best thing for me is to have Chris go home. Tonight I have to trust an enormous amount of people.

Jessica did what she had to do to firm up her relationship with the ones in her alliance, but had to take a leap of faith. Which sets her up for the big fall that is coming her way in the next half of the double header!

Bret, Sunday, and Will all had one confessional. Bret, the eternal reward winner had a confessional about the reward, it was like going out for pizza and beer with his buddies back home but it was really great because he got to bond with Chris' new BFF, Zeke.

Sunday's confessional was that Chris and Bret are ready to vote out Jessica, that's exactly what she wants, because she knows she's putting something together to get her out of the game. Sunday's paranoia is not founded in that we have never once seen Jessica mention targeting Sunday first. Regardless, when she planted the Jessica seed, it took, and leads to Chris' demise.

Will's lone confessional was about jumping off the sinking ship, Jay, and moving to the life raft, Zeke. Telling him about Jay's idol is a way to build trust. Will is a flipper. First he was straddling Mari's group and Jay's group, then he was with Jay, now he's jumping to Zeke, who's next?

Ken had 0 confessionals, which is stable from the last 3 weeks. But, Ken is still seen a lot. He had a nice bit of compassion and building up of his comrade, David. He also, very astutely questioned Zeke and Chris' relationship. They are always going off together, noting how close they are. So, Ken is perceptive.

Episode 10b

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10a| 10b| total

David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 35
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 29
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 26
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 26
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 18
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 15
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 15X
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | * | * | * | 1 | 13
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10
Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 8


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 2 | 8X
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21X
Chris Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20X
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 15X

+ = Winner Quote

Zeke makes the biggest jump up in confessionals from 3 to 6! He prepared for battle last week, his offensive has begun. Now it's time to draw the lines, and take aim at the targets. His first confessional explained how TC went as planned, that Chris had to go because he controlled Bret and Sunday. His plan has been to make a move against David and company, and in order to do that he needs 6. Bret and Sunday are integral to that six. But, most of all he's happy he got to them before David did!

Next, he tells us his plan: I'm the doughy little gay guy, people didn't think I could hack it out here, today I am a warrior and I need to make a move against David. Zeke replaces his "doughy little gay guy hat with his warrier hat", but he's been very strategic and diplomatic this entire game.

Next, he compares he and David, which interestingly follows a confessional by David that does the same thing! David and I are very similar people. I understand that I am threatening, David understands that I am threatening, I think people see it. But, I think David is more of a threat to win than I am. This is the war that everyone has been alluding to and now itís a scramble to assemble the troops.

What is interesting in this confessional is that he says "the war that everyone has been alluding to. So, everyone must be talking about what is coming down the road...

HIs rationale to his "recruits" then is that David is more of a threat to win than he is...

The third confessional was at the reward when he commented that he doesn't really like to drink beer but his goal was to cultivate a relationship with Bret. At the end of the reward he said this: I owe a lot to Bretís generation. I would not have been able to come out at 15 were there not pioneers that paved the way. And, I think it really reflects this Gen X-Millennial divide, right? He spent time in the military during the ďdonít ask donít tellĒ era where he couldnít have been in the military had he told people he was gay. And, I am excited that now Bret is getting to reap the rewards of what he has sowed. Bret and I, we have the rainbow connection and Bret, Sunday and I are like David is the biggest threat and I am delighted because now I have united them against a common enemy.

Zeke is an awesome narrator and story teller. His plan is unfolding better than he may have thought it would. He's bonding very much with Bret and his mission to recruit them is complete.

His final confessional is about his first bump in the road, Hanna. I have attempted to cultivate Hanna as a very close ally, but as we are talking it becomes very apparent to me that Hanna does not have my best interests at heart. I realized that I am no longer going to be working with Hanna. It was going to be David, but David has an idol and if he plays it weíre screwed. If Hanna wants to become one of Davids members than she becomes my enemy, so I have no problem voting her out then. (See Zeke telling Will that Hanna is in Davids pocket.) Weíve come to the day when itís going to be either Daveís army or my army, so I am trusting Bret and Sunday, Jay and Will. We have 5 votes together which is half, which means at worst we tie.

Zeke spells it out, he's willing to take it to the tie. Lines are clearly drawn. Zeke and David are very similar indeed, and David told us that long ago. They are similar in that they view the game similarly and they are very diplomatic and sensitive to others. Interesting that they agree on the biggest threat, Chris, they both recognized and agreed that being in charge of Bret and Sunday gave him too much power in the game. And, they both wanted Bret and Sunday. But, David is very tied to Ken and Jessica, but how tied is Zeke to Hanna and Adam, or to Jay and Will? We saw that Will is now thrown in with his life raft, Zeke, but what does Jay really think of Zeke? Jay is with Sunday and Bret, but I question whether he would be loyal to them.

One thing I note about the millennials is that they are not really loyal to each other but they are loyal only to themselves....seemingly...?

As someone that has watched this game from day one, I feel that Zeke and David have drawn the lines too early. But, I suppose you could counter that thought with Mike winning The Collared Season? But, by taking control of both sides and targeting each other, they are now making themselves the biggest targets in the game. So, I think this move by both of them, will enable someone more under the radar to win. (Have to recall that in a season full of alphas, the beta will win?) Or, at least someone with a lot more patience and self control?

Zeke has the largest spike, his offensive is in play, he's at RISK!

David had the next highest amount of confessionals going from three last week to four this week. Note, it's a much less severe jump than Zeke's. His first gives us his boot order: I want to make Jay the next vote but right now the person winning this game is Zeke, but I want to get rid of him in 3 votes. I want to get rid of Jay, then Will, then Zeke. He sees that Zeke is the biggest threat to win the game. But, his approach is far more subtle than Zeke's.

Next, as Zeke did, he talks about how they are more alike. His confessional preceded Zeke's similar confessional: The thing about Zeke and I, I feel like we are chess players in this game and I feel like I can read Zekeís mind. I feel like we are having much the same thoughts, and I hope people see Zeke as playing harder than I am. So, I donít think it will be a hard sell when it comes time to vote him out.

They really are thinking along the same lines! Next comes the anxiety after Hanna tells him that Zeke knows that David is gunning for him...I may have deleted this confessional, or perhaps he only had 3 confessionals? I will wait to Michel's editing thread comes out to re-check...whoops!

His last confessional is the final confessional before they go to TC, and David suspects that Zeke is coming for him...Tonight is huge if it comes down to 5 votes, and itís really, but there is no really anymore. But, if we really do have 5 votes against Zeke it will be a tie and then we will have to revote and it would require somebody flipping. The question is who would flip? My people? Their people? Iím not even sure that it will be 5/5 so I Ďm really schizophrenic about what am I gonna do with my idol. I hope I play the idol for the right person. This is really the scariest part of the game for me thus far.

I can only imagine the anxiety that David had going into the TC, during it, and then playing his idol for the wrong person. But, David did not have the spike in confessionals that Zeke did, so I have to wonder, will David outlast Zeke now? The story points to him, however. David is AT RISK.

Hanna had 3 confessionals. Her first one was interesting since we first heard David talk about how much alike he and Zeke were, but Zeke was the biggest threat, and then we got the confessional about how Zeke also thinks he's very similar to David, but David is the biggest threat, then we have this from Hanna: I want both David and Zeke to feel like I am in their corner, and they are both two very threatening players. I would love to work with David. We are both very neurotic people, but itís been a month with working with Zeke, side by side. So, I donít know who I would choose, either Zeke or David?

Hanna is the girl in the middle and at this point she's conflicted but recognizes that she will have to choose.

She tells us her decision in her second confessional: So the winners get back; Zeke, Bret, Sunday and David, and I immediately grab David. Iím playing between Zeke and David, but Iím going with my gut and my decision is to go after Zeke. Because Zeke heís condescending and he can be a flip flopper...

I think that all the millennials can be flip floppers. Jay, Will, Adam, all of them, now Hanna is herself a flip flopper. I can't help but wonder if Ken wooed her over to their side?

Then, Hanna's last confessional: My OCD is going crazy right now. Itís like my body canít handle it. I feel like David should play his idol tonight for me because if the vote changes at all itís going to be against me.

She's at least perceptive. But, her inability to convince David cost Jessica the game perhaps? But, so well played by Bret, Sunday, and Zeke, preying upon David's insecurities. They really played him, I thought. Hanna is a target now, she's betrayed Zeke and he is out to get her too. Hanna is at RISK.

Adam, Jay, Bret, and Jessica all had 2 confessionals. Adam's first confessional was after the RC, when he was tempted to use his advantage, especially since David didn't earn it, but will save it for a rainy day. SEG keeps choosing to hit us over the head with this advantage that Adam has, so, with the preview of the family reward next week, I predict this is indeed foreshadowing that he will finally use it, or perhaps he will give it away, but he most likely will do something with it.

Next confessional was expressing doubt about Hanna, she's a nervous girl, he's let her run the show a bit and now he doesn't know...this casts doubt on whether he'll vote with her or not. Adam is rock solid with 2 confessionals for the past 3 episodes. He could be a "surprise" boot, as Chris was, because we see it's the family reward next could paint a target on his back if he uses the advantage, or, he could be solid as his confessionals suggest, and be safe. I will put Adam at SLIGHT RISK because of the family visit and threat to use the advantage.

Jay had the first confessional of the show and he is also solid with 2 confessionals, same as he had last week. His first confessional was about how he thought he might have to play his HII at the last TC, but his name didn't come up, and he took a million dollar gamble and kept it, his name was never mentioned. His last confessional was about winning the IC, he's still got his HII, and he'll keep it.

Jay is SAFE for next week!

Bret had 2 confessionals, up one from last week. His arc is rising. His first one was about unbeknownst to David, he's signed on with Zeke, David can't be trusted so he needs to go. The next confessional was at the reward when Bret comments on being gay at a time when it was not okay to announce it. He admires how Zeke is and looks forward to one day living openly as the Millennials do....You know IĎve been a big fan of survivor and itís just a part of my life, and as I get older, you start to learn who you really are and you donít care what people think. I want to get closer to Zeke, because I wanna work with Zeke, cause I like him as a person. I didnít grow up in a time when it was normal to talk about being gay and the millennials do not care. Zeke finds comfort in being himself and I think thatís great! Iím hoping as my life goes on that I can be that way.

I really admired this admission and the way they talked about it, and the regard that they each had for each other. I have found Bret to be a very endearing character! But, I think we all saw his police interrogation side come up in TC, boy he got rough with David, I thought. No more Mr. Nice guy...

Bret's arc is rising, but right now he is out of the cross hairs himself. I will place Bret at Slight Risk.

Poor Jessica had 2 confessionals in her boot episode. Solid, same amount as last week. A surprise boot.

Ken and Sunday both had 1 confessional. Ken comes out from being totally under the radar for the last 4 episodes! His confessional: I want to go out with David, I made a promise to the man, so I want to go out swinging and playing with David.

I can't help wonder if Ken will go before David? We know that he's the bigger threat challenge wise, (well they both won one IC so?), so if he doesn't win immunity, he could be next. We also know that he has the legacy advantage. He'll at least get a confessional regarding that. With a one spike rise after 4 weeks of no confessionals, I will put Ken at risk.

Sunday had 1 confessional, as she did last week. Her arc is underway. Her only confessional was that it was not only her dream to get on Survivor but to take a helicopter ride as well, this is one of the most favorite days in her life.

Sunday is safe for this week. She is not a big threat out there at this point.

Will had 0 confessionals which is down from last episode. He's flip flopper too. He's a soldier but is he a loyal soldier? We see that he teases David next week that he wants to start playing hard??? If he tries to make a big move it could back fire on him. He's at SLIGHT RISK.

SAFE: Jay, Sunday
SLIGHT RISK: Adam, Bret, Will
AT RISK: Zeke, David, Hanna, Ken

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21. "RE: S: 33|Confessional Analysis"
LAST EDITED ON 12-05-16 AT 07:25 PM (EST)

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10a| 10b| 11|total

David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 38
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 31X
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4+| 30
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 28
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 20
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | * | 15
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | * | * | * | 1 | 3+| 16
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | 10
Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 6 | 14


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 2 | 8X
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21X
Chris Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20X
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 15X
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 31X

+ = Winner Quote

This week we see ALOT with the confessionals imho. Very telling if you ask me for the end game. The biggest jump came from Will, going from 0 to 6 confessionals. By, as hard as he tried to make a big move at TC this week, the episode belonged to Adam. (Up 2 to 4 this week).

We will start with Will. From the vantage point of a baby boomer or a GenX'r, Will speaks out about his own perceptions, it's all about "me". Despite the fact that he thinks he's making big moves, he doesn't get the credit for them, he's dismissed and treated like a child. And, he digs his heels in, no matter what happens around him....all about me.

First confessional: Seeing my mom made me realize that I need to start playing this game cause because despite the moves that Iíve made, despite the things Iíve done in this game people still donít give me the credit I deserve. And, that could ruin my shot at winning his game. Itís time to flip the script. The biggest threat out here is Zeke. And, if he gets to the end, he will beat anyone of us. It is very risky, but I didnít come here to be dragged as a goat. I came here to play.

I think, if you came here to play, why did you wait till the end game to wake up?

Second confessional tells us that Zeke lost the IC, so now is his time, time to show the kid from Jersey came to play.

Third confessional: Working with Ken sucks, but I have to put up with his crap to make the big move. Fourth: Iím thinking we are good to go then Ken walks up in the camp and gets Jay and says we need to talk. And, at this point, I know we are about to have a rumble. See SNAKE. Telling us that his plan will be thwarted.

Fifth confessional rants about Ken: This guy preaches about honor and integrity, and how he is this great and noble human being, and then he has the audacity to pull this crap on me...

Final: Everybody knows that I am in the middle, now I have to make a decision. The logical side is telling me that this is my time to make a big move but I am so angry with Ken, I would love to blow up his game. Either way I am in control and there is nothing anyone can do about it.

Well, he was in control but neither side trusted him. He will seriously affect at least 4 peoples games, and he's alienated the other side as well, because he didn't "finish" his job.....assuring them that they were together despite the course of events. Therefore, Adam, plays/wastes his idol, and that will not sit well.

Easy to see with his peak spike in confessionals/facetime from 0 to 6, that Will is in grave danger. High Risk

Next, we have Adam, going from 2 to 4 confessionals. The episode was stellar for him! Here they are: The first confessional was right in the middle of hugging his brother, Evan....My mom has stage 4 lung cancer and I donít know whatís going on with my mom, I donít know whatís going on at home.

His second confessional is at the barbecue: Iím here to bring joy to my family, to make them proud ad to give them as much to look forward to as humanly possible. And, the better I do in this game, and the longer I last, the more that I make my mom happy. And, I have to use this inspiration to continue fighting out here. cut to giving Jay the advantage....continues: I am out here for so much more than a million dollars, the stakes for me are maybe higher than for anyone thatís played this game.

ANOTHER MILLION DOLLAR QUOTE. But, is it the quote of the season from "the" journey player. Time will tell.

Third confessional: the IC was awesome! I am making my survivor dreams come true! You know what, I only have one check box left. And, thatís winning this game, and you know what that might actually happen because I am safe at TC tonight, I have a hidden HII in my pocket, and Will wants to blindside Zeke.

Then his last confessional: We have this plan, and Ken tests Will. Revealing Willís plan, thatís not a test, thatís a betrayal.

Adam came full circle tonight with the family love reward. The climax around his advantage arc is complete, and the fact that he's gotten the fortification from his brother, the family love is also done. Now, can he put his money where his mouth is?

Adam had an arc, but with other fish to fry toward the end of this season, I don't think he's quite done in the next few episodes. I will have him at SLIGHT RISK.

Two DAWS had 3 confessionals: David went from 4 to 3, and Ken went from 1 to 3. David is settling down. He blew it with his idol play last episode, and his first confessional of the episode tells us this. He burned his idol, now he's in the minority with Hanna, Ken, and Adam and if he doesn't find a crack, the others will pick them off starting with him. Next, he tells us how Will wanting to swing over to them is music to his ears, and he believes him so Zeke could be going. Finally, I no longer have a hidden II, but itís like Will just got his drivers liscence and weíre all sitting in the back terrified because this is the first time that heís going to take us for a drive. But, I think itís going to work.

For now, David is exposed with no HII, but his arc is settling back down. I think he is only at slight risk for the next 2 episodes, but his final arc is underway, perhaps.

Ken, OTOH, had one confessional and jumps to 3. He's getting more on everyone's radar. Here's his first confessional about Jess' advantage. I received a gift this morning, I got this...he reads it, day 36, receive an advantage if you are still in the game. (Hear like upbeat ukelele island music)Jess, you are amazing. Jess told me that sheíd leave me this advantage if she got voted out, and she did! God, I love that girl. There is something to be said about the power of being authentic and good, and forming relationships in this game. Day 36, if I am still here, I am going to open this up and see what it brings me, because I feel like I got a really good shot to give my daughter and I like a new life, (still hear the ukelele music)...and a better life. I could be walking away with a million dollars. Is this a million dollar quote? Are they going them to everyone this season?

Second confessional: I had a pretty good feeling about Will, but it wasnít 100%. I just donít have a five minute conversation and hop in bed with somebody. Iíve got to know the core of a person, their integrity, their value, because I am trying to win it for my little girl and I want to make sure that I am safe.

Final confessional: Apparently Zeke and his group are voting for me, and Iím like why? Iím not ready to go home.

Seriously, Ken? Why? Ken is shown to be a very disconnected player. Very socially unaware as well. Ken's spike and face time on the rise, Ken is at High Risk!

Jay and Hanna both had 2 confessionals, Jay is steady while Hanna settles down from 3 to 2 confessionals. Jay is really a presence in these episodes, turning it on toward the end. He really had a great episode as well. He went out and won the family reward for his family, half of his heart. He made good on his word with 2 people, and he brought one of his adversaries along because he shows he's a compassionate man. This is the ideal Survivor winner. Once more, all of the people out there see that he is as well. All along he has represented the quintessential millennial, but now he's demonstrating how he can get along with others in the Gen X group as well. He keeps his eye on the prize, and we've seen him do this from start to finish. (with scolding Taylor in confessional regarding his GF...clearly, Jay came to play).

Jay's first confessional: This whole time Adam has had an advantage to take a way a reward, but when he walked out there and said, Iím not stealing a family visit because thatís not right. For 5 seconds we saw the soft side of Adam. I was like, YO, sometimes I hate you, sometimes I love you, but at this moment I truly respect you and youíre a cool dude.

His final confessional: One minute the solid five is we are good to go, we are doing Ken, then the next minute I have Ken come up to me and said Will told me you are voting my name. And, I am like WTF? We all knew something was up, heís just a young kid trying to prove himself to the whole world, but, we still need him.
It just seems to me that whatever bump in the road occurs, it's Jay that is the voice of reason. He recognizes the problem, but sees what has to be done. He is keeping his head in the game and not letting his emotions run away with him, and he's not giving up!

Jay is steady as can be, he's in a very good position, he's SAFE.

Hanna settles down to 2 confessionals: She had the first confessional of the night, Tonight was just very emotional. To have people pick a rock rather than just vote me out of this game, and then to have Jessica pick the black rock. Itís an awful feeling, I feel guilty and I feel thankful and I just feel awful..... Then, her next one was narrational: Ken just screwed up everything. Because if we donít have Will, then whoever those mobsters led by Zeke choose to vote out, they are going home.

Hanna settling down, Will and Ken moving up in FaceTime, means that Hanna is SAFE.

Bret and Sunday both fall back under the radar. They are coasting to the end. At this point there are 2 paths for Bret and Sunday. The first is that they slide under the radar to be a hidden boot soon, OR, they slide under the radar because they are not in any danger and are going to the end. I see the later, at least for Sunday. With Will and Ken both getting a lot of face time, I see them as the most at risk. Adam is also making his pledge to the end, but must navigate through Jay/David/Bret/Sunday. He may get through a few, but all would be really quite a feat. Perhaps David could pull off the notorious physical challenges at end game, but I highly doubt it. But, if Ken gets out, he could will his advantage to David, now that would be something. David has some hope. If David or Ken both get out by day 36, I see them willing their advantage to Hanna, not Adam? Something to speculate about! Bret COULD be going under the radar only to be booted SOON. A hidden boot.

Regardless, for this week, I think Sunday is SAFE, but Bret could be at Risk.

Safe: Jay, Hanna, Sunday
Slight Risk: Adam, David
Risk: Bret
High Risk: Will, Ken

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michel2 2031 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-16, 12:03 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: S: 33|Confessional Analysis"
Stellar work, FP. I think you've nailed the players that are about to be voted out. Everyone gangs up on Will and then Adam joins Jay to eliminate Ken. There, my SOTS is done!

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12-10-16, 11:39 AM (EST)
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23. "Episode 12 Confessionals...."
LAST EDITED ON 12-10-16 AT 03:29 PM (EST)

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10a| 10b| 11| 12| total

David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 40
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4+| 6 | 36
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 31
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3+| 23
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | * | * | * | 1 | 3+| 3 | 19
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 17

Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 6 | 2 | 16X
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 10X


Rachel Tak | * | 2 | 2X
Mari Van | 1+| 3 | 2 | 6X
Paul Tak | * | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7X
Lucy Van | * | * | * | * | 3 | 3X
Cece Tak Van | * | 2 | * | 2 | * | 2 | 6X
Figgie Van Tak | * | 1+| 4 | 2 | * | 1 | 3 | 11X
Michaela Van Ika | * | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1+| 3 | 1 | 3 | 15X
Michelle Van Van | * | 1 | 2 | * | * | 2 | * | 1 | 2 | 8X
Taylor Van Tak | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | * | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21X
Chris Tak Van | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 20X
Jessica Tak Tak | * | 4 | * | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 2 | 2 | 15X
Zeke Van Van | 1 | 3 | 2+| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 31X
Will Van Ika | * | 2 | * | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | * | 6 | 2 | 16X
Sunday Tak Ika | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | * | * | * | 1 | * | 3 | 1 | 1 | * | * | 10X

+ = Winner Quote

Last week I had Sunday as safe, but it was "my bad". For the same reason that Bret was at risk, Sunday was. They both fell under the radar and thus were indeed candidates for being a "hidden" boot. Sunday has been far less seen in the season, and thus falling from 1 confessional to 0, could be a big dip for her. *snicker*. Will had the huge increase in face time with 6 confessionals and booted the next episode, predictable.

So, for the finale!

It's Adam that is taking over the drivers seat toward the end of the show, and we are hearing his rationale and the game through his point of view. He peaks with 6 this episode, so the question is, is it too early? Or, is his effort going to reign supreme? Is this his story to tell or no?

EPMB and Jiffy have had a long history of leading us down the garden path. Last season with Spenser, it happened again. So, I am very skeptical that Adam could prevail, although I would love to see it.

Adam's confessionals: Bret and Sunday come up to me this morning and they say Jay, Dave, and Will are the three biggest threats in the game, those three need to be the next three to go. And, itís music to my ears. If they want to put themselves into a position where they are left with myself, Hanna and Ken, I love that!

Second: Adam voices his opinion of Will taking over the power position: Willís preference right off the bat is to vote off Dave next. Will thinks now he has a degree of power and he has a degree of control and that makes him more dangerous. So, to me, Will is a bigger threat for me, I do not want to put myself in a position where Will is controlling my fate in this game.

Third: Right now Hanna and I are in power positions. We can decide who goes home next, itís a really tough choice. Bret and Sunday are in a really weak position and they are going to vote the way I want them to vote. So, the question is take out Will, who is someone that I do believe is loyal to me at this point, or take out Dave, someone who is potentially the biggest threat in this game? So, we have a huge decision to make. This is the moment that I start making the moves that I need to make to win this game.

We hear that Adam and Hanna's boot choices are Dave and Will. We see Hanna voice reluctance to take out Will, so it appears, since Will went home, that it was indeed Adam that convinced Hanna to do his bidding.

Fourth confessional: Adam sets us up with his next mission, to get Jay to play the idol while David gets enough votes to be voted out if Jay indeed plays his idol. First step is this: Iím trying to make Jay feel as comfortable as possible with me and so I tell Jay that the next move is to get rid of Dave. But, to me, Jay has to go home. He has an immunity idol and we have to take every opportunity that we can to take a stab at the guy. If he doesnít have immunity, he needs to go home.

His fifth confessional: My biggest fear going into immunity was that Dave or Jay would win, but of course, if I couldnít win then I was glad it was Ken. Yeah, I helped Ken, the most important thing about the challenge was that Jay or Dave did not win. My plan tonight is that in the case that Jay does play his idol, then Dave would go home.

Adam is willing to do what he needs to do to move his plans forward. He's successful in part one, making sure that David and Jay are both vulnerable for the TC.

HIs final confessional: I had a long conversation with Ken and Hanna and throughout the entire time I knew what I wanted to do. We have to put enough votes on Jay so if he doesnít play his idol he goes home and we have to put enough votes on Dave so if he doesnít play his idol, Dave goes home. If we vote for Sunday it would leave both Jay and Dave in the game and they are two strong strategic players so we have to make certain that one of them goes home. There are so many moving parts to tonights vote, that the worst thing we could have is that tomorrow morning Jay is still in this game with an idol still in his pocket.

This confessional lays out his plan, and his worst case scenario. We see that he submitted to Hanna, but was able to get Jay to play his idol. He's not too rigid, which is a good thing. But, what will happen next for Adam?

With a big rise in face time, bonding with Jay, ties to Bret, as well as with the "4", Dave, Ken, Hanna, and himself, it appears that he has options. But, we have to assume that Ken is telling David about Adam's hierarchy, which could lead to Adam's demise. We know that Ken is receiving the legacy advantage the very next morning after the TC. Probably an advantage in the F6 IC. But, for next week we hear Adam talking about an HII, and we see him looking in the promo. Makes me think he's going to find it. Lots of possibilities for Adam, but with a peak of 6, he's at RISK!

Jay had 3 confessionals. Jay is still a long shot to win this game. He's the most adept at challenges, I think. His conviction to win is impressive, never faltering. He's now really bonded to Adam, and tells him he's with him to the end, a final two plea. His first confessional: It felt phenomenal to win, you know, I have already won 2 individual challenges but anytime Jeff says, ďJAY wins immunity!Ē Iím like pffffft, damn right I won that thing, put that thing around my neck and Iíll go back to camp, and Iíll go spear fishing or something, I donít even need to talk to any of these fools! And plus, I still have my idol and Iím gonna hold on to this baby until I really have to use it.

Second confessional speaks about his misfortune with his allies getting voted out constantly, then he speaks of his relationship with Adam. He hates him, but loves him...Dude, anytime someone tries to make a plan with me they end up going home. Iím like the black plague right now, you know what Iím saying? I am all alone, I have no alliance, but TC has been a complete chaotic mess every single time, you never know whatí s going to, itís time for the underdog to keep fighting, Iím not going down without a fight, I still have an idol, and thereís still more immunities on the way and Iím not going down. Me and Adam have this, itís kind of like a yin yang relationship. Itís like we love each other but we hate each other. And, thatís how itís been.

Then, his final confessional comes after their bonding moment when they were both reduced to tears after noting that they are both there for their families, their moms. Itís Adam telling me I know you have the idol and I am going to force you to play it. But, Adam always lies to me so in all honesty my name might not even come up tonight and if I feel like not playing it, I wonít do it. I love my mom just like he does, itís crazy, my momís got brain aneurysms. Me and Adam are both out here for our families, for our moms.Heís not a weasel anymore in my book, heís a good freaking dude, heís a warrior.

I think that it's always great to hear another player speak well of someone else! A good sign for Adam's stock? Regardless, I loved this scene, and I hope they can indeed work together moving forward. Thinking Ken will win the IC, I could see Adam and Jay team up with Bret to take out David. I just don't know if Hanna would be on board.....and, let's face it, Jay is a bigger challenge threat, but is he?

Jay is at risk, with his rise in confessionals....and especially since he no longer has an HII. We have also heard Ken marvel at him regarding the challenges and tell us that Jay is in their cross hairs.

While Jay's arch is rising, Ken's arch is stable with 3 confessionals last week as well. We know that the last TC was on day 35, and he will get the legacy advantage on day 36. Most likely an advantage to win the IC. His confessionals: Jay again, you know 3 of the last 4 challenges heís won, he got the immunity challenge today, you know if he hadnít won we would have probably targeted him tonight, but now we donít know whatís going on. Thatís how this gameís being played, you donít know from one day to the next. So, tonightís completely up in the air.

This confessional is a window into what Dave is most likely thinking as well. Jay is threatening to their game as a challenge beast. They have him high on their list to target. And, since Ken/David/Hanna seem very tight, this is telling.

Second confessional was after the IC when Ken won with Adam's help. Jay is one of the strong competitors in the game and itís definitely a struggle to sit there and watch a younger version of myself doing what I would have been doing 10 years ago. So, I felt good about wearing the idol around my neck as opposed to a Jay. A little rivalry between Ken and Jay.

Ken's third confessional was telling as well, Ken is solidly locked with David: I definitely want to be walking back here with David, who has been my closest ally and my closest friend. But, Adamís afraid of David and doesnít want to play against David.

Not hard to predict where Ken's loyalties are, and as I noted, Ken most likely tells David of the threat that Adam now is to them both outlasting to the finals. So, Ken, David, and Hanna are most likely going up against Jay, Adam, and Bret. F6 could be fun. One thing to note is that Ken is stable, so he does NOT look to be at risk for the next TC. We also know about that legacy advantage! I have to wonder if he and Dave and Hanna, as the most stable and settling down could ALL make it to the finals?

ETA: Hanna also had 3 confessionals and her arc is rising, from 2 to 3.
Her first one is exemplary of how she plays the game: Iím torn up emotionally, like I usually am. Will saved my butt in this game, so I do owe Will in a sense. But, I also owe David in a sense. David pulled a rock for me, and we have always been allies. So, you know you end up owing more than one person. I think Hanna is going to be really torn soon because we know that Adam also pulled a rock for her.

Then, It is important to split up Bret and Sunday. Sunday is a threat because she has sort of made herself into a tempting goat and I am very scared that people (see Adam) will want to sit next to her, and people that have worked less hard will get a spot that I have worked really hard for.

Hanna is jealous that Sunday is a better goat than herself! Ha! Since we saw Adam's picture inserted in the middle of this confessional, are we to assume that she wants to be Adam's only goat choice? She has to know that David and Ken are the tightest bond, so is she the most loyal to Adam? Hmmmm? To me it also says that she is thinking down the road and how to get to the end, with options! And, of all the people in the game it really does seem as if she has them.

Her third confessional was the last one of the night....Adamís reluctance to vote out Sunday is my reluctance too, because it leaves a big threat left in the game, which is Daviid. The problem is if Jay plays his idol and David goes home, I lose David who I freaking love. So, I donít know the right choice. The kind of person that makes a decision and convinces other people of that decision is the kinda person that wins survivor. Ding, ding, ding, Hanna gets a winning quote at the last possible moment. And, let's look at her. She notes that Adam's reluctance is hers as well. She has played this entire game with ADAM. She's bonded with David and Ken because she can relate to them as an emotional person with anxieties herself. Dave played an idol for her and so did Adam. She HAS options! She is straddling both sides, and at some point she's going to have to figure it out. She fights for Sunday to go so her options REMAIN. Sunday was best for HER game because it got rid of another goat, someone that could take the place that she wants at the end, as she's "worked harder for it", and targeting Sunday instead of David, keeps both her options alive and well. She has 2 paths to the end, she's under the radar, she eliminated her goat competition, she has a winning quote. She is less threatening than ANYONE left out there, as the only girl who's lousy at competition. Her arc is rising from 2 to 3, could this be the last efforts that throw her case over the top? At this point it seems likely that Hanna is there in the end, so the question remains, can she win? She's SAFE!

The remaining two contestants got 2 confessionals. Dave is settling down from 3 to 2 confessionals, Hanna is rock solid with 2 from last week, and Bret goes from 0 to 2. Dave's and Hanna's confessionals are the most relaxed and stable, makes me wonder if these two make it to the finals?

Let's have a look. David started with: Unfortunately because Jay is now safe tonight at tribal, there is so much scrambling going on now, and the most insecurity I have ever felt is right now. At the last tribal will voted with us but the thing is Will is looking to pad his resume a bit more, so if Will is smart, the thing to do is to follow up a big move with yet a another big move, and thereís this perception in the tribe so yeah, why wouldnít you want to get rid of me tonight?

His assessment of the situation is accurate. Then, I donít feel safe about the vote at all especially since Jay will know that we are throwing votes his way and if he does have an idol and he does play it, I automatically go home.

Dave has really cultivated friendships and loyalties, especially from Ken and Hanna, and all those crazy times he played idols for others earlier in the game is perhaps really paying off for him NOW!

Dave could be our winner, and I do not think he is at immediate risk for the next TC.

Bret has two confessionals: Iím used to TC not going my way and again it didnít go my way. Will flipped and voted out Zeke. He said I want to start making big moves and checking them off on my checklist...He said he didnít want to be a HS kid, but heís thinking like a HS kid. Oh, I gotta do all my homework, gotta check off all these boxes. Give me a break! This is getting to be a crazy game and there are alot of people playing it. Thereís gotta be a way for me to stay alive in this game.

Great confessional by Bret! Next one: I think Adamís being smart about how heís playing this game. And we have some common goals that we are looking to make. So, me and Sunday agree, weíll go with Adam and vote together. But, how is Bret going to feel when he realizes that Adam played them? Being left out of the vote at this late stage doesn't say much for Bret's game. He will not win. Bret jumps from 0 to 2 confessionals. Bret is at risk. Especially when we know that Hanna's targeting the goats.

At this point in the game, as I have noted above, we know that the tightest bond in the game is most likely to be David and Ken. How lucky for David that he found Ken. The challenge threat who has no intention of cutting him loose, ever.

At F6, it could come down to Dave/Ken/Hanna vs. Adam/Jay/Bret. Or, Dave/Ken/Hanna/Adam/Bret vs Jay. If Jay doesn't win immunity, he could be toast. I would hate to see Jay go next, especially with all the bonding we've seen with Adam. If Adam and Jay decide to commit to each other, I see them pulling in Bret, and could Adam sway Hanna, at this point? There are wonderful possibilities! Especially if Adam finds an HII! (Or will David find it?)

Regardless: All I can do at this point is note that those at most risk for exiting the game BEFORE the end are:

Jay, Adam, Bret

Hanna, Dave, and even Ken look stable at this point. But, just cause they are stable for F6, doesn't mean they will make it to the end. A lot of story yet to be told!

Hope this thread as been a help!

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michel2 2031 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-16, 12:34 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Episode 12 Confessionals...."
Great work, FP and this thread has been wonderful.

However, I'm going to throw a rock in the pond: Hannah had 3 confessionals. You didn't list the one she had just before TC: ďAdamís reluctance to vote out Sunday is my reluctance too because it leaves a visible threat which is David. The problem is if Jay plays his idol and David goes home, I lose David who I freaking love. So I donít know the right choice but the kind of person that makes a decision and convinces other people of that decision is the kind of person that wins Survivor.Ē

It's her best of the season but it does create a spike! Good or bad for her? I'll let you decide!

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Flowerpower1 1904 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-16, 03:11 PM (EST)
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EEEEKKKKKK! OMG, thanks so much, michel! I can't believe I skipped over THAT one! I had it down, but in my haste forgot it! D'OH. Sincere apologies and thank you so much for calling attention to this matter! (AND, a WINNING quote included as well! )

I will edit it in, pronto!

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Sheldor 1266 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-16, 12:31 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Episode 12 Confessionals...."
FlowerPower: THANKS so much for doing the Confessional Count all season!

One thing that jumps out at me in your stats is that David, Adam, and Jay have had a Confessional in EVERY Episode!

I think that is pretty rare to have 3 people in the Finale with a Confessional in every episode.

Also, David is the ONLY one left with an Intro Confessional.

episode          | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10a| 10b| 11| 12| total

David Tak Van | 1 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 40
Adam Van Tak | * | 3 | 1 | 2+| 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4+| 6 | 36
Jay Van Ika | * | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1+| 4 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 31
Hannah Van Ika | * | 3 | * | 2 | * | * | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3+| 23
Ken Tak Tak | * | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | * | * | * | * | 1 | 3+| 3 | 19
Bret Tak Ika | * | 3 | * | * | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | * | 2 | 17

Even though it would be VERY unlikely, can you imagine a Final 3 of David, Adam and Jay?!

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Flowerpower1 1904 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-16, 07:25 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Episode 12 Confessionals...."
Interesting to note, Sheldor. I went back and reviewed a few seasons. Last season Tai was the only one with confessionals throughout every episode. In the all stars season, Jeremy, Spencer, and Kelly Wentworth all had at least 1 confessional through all the episodes. Then, Mike and Rodney were the only ones with confessionals throughout

S32: Tai(2 or 3rd place)
S31: Jeremy, (1st), Spenser(2nd), Kelly Wentworth(4th)
S30: Mike(1st), Rodney(4th)
S29: No one. Natalie was winner
S28: Tony(1st), Spenser(4th), and Kass(3rd)
S27: Hayden(6 or 7?), Tyson(1) had an intro confessional but none after the intro in ep 1, but had a confessional in every episode.

It tells me that they were the worthy characters of the season. The first place finisher has had a confessional in 4 of the last 6 seasons. So, there is a darn good chance that our winner is either David, Jay, or Adam.

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Sheldor 1266 desperate attention whore postings
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12-11-16, 07:48 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: Episode 12 Confessionals...."
Flowerpower thanks for the analysis of confessional history!!

I forgot to mention that only David and Bret do NOT have a Winner Quote.

Winner Quotes for Adam(Ep3 & Ep11), Jay(Ep6), Ken(Ep11), Hannah(Ep12)

I would think having a Winner Quote earlier is better and having TWO Winner Quotes is something to definitely ponder!

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Sheldor 1266 desperate attention whore postings
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12-15-16, 09:49 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Episode 12 Confessionals...."
So first out was Jay with a winner quote in Ep6

Next out was Bret and David who both did NOT have a winner quote.

So not surprising the 3 Finalists all had a winner quote to make the seem a legitimate threat to win:

Adam(Ep3 & Ep11)

Only Final 3 with 2 winner quotes = Adam

Only Final 3 with a confessional in every episode = Adam

Final 3 with most confessions:
1) 36 Adam
2) 23 Hannah
3) 19 Ken

While the edit tried to make it look like Hannah and Ken had a shot at winning confessional analysis makes it pretty clear who was going to win once David and Jay were voted out.

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Flowerpower1 1904 desperate attention whore postings
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12-16-16, 01:01 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Episode 12 Confessionals...."
YAYYYYY! The confessionals do continue to be a very helpful tool.

The way the story ended in the penultimate episode really pointed to Jay, Bret, or Adam. Two of those three were indeed the next two boots.

Then, as you noted, Sheldor, the confessionals told the story. We knew that it couldn't be either Hanna or Ken, as there were so many episodes that they were ignored. Hanna could have had a chance perhaps because they really do edit female winners far more differently than male winners.

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