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"My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
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Outsider32 499 desperate attention whore postings
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03-11-16, 11:29 PM (EST)
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"My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
So as I said I decided to make my editing posts away from the other thread to not get the depiction of using spoilers to make my predictions on a open thread with posters who refuse to not see spoilers. However spoilers have not influenced my predictions. And spoilers would not this one either.


With that said I only know of two weight loss spoilers but in this season with the conditions that is not going to mean much. And I knew about Caleb medevac over the summer but given the source I was extremely weary. But SC proved that spoilers turned out true.

Now after reading into the first episode(I was waiting for the first big medevac), I have lined up my starting points.

Brains
Like her or not, Debbie had a big edit. She gave backstory, POV, and showed a nurturing side with Aubrey. However, the failing to come through with her statements could hurt her chances at winning. But she in all honestly appears primed to make it toward the end. And while she did fall back on her declarations, everything else points to a chance of redemption.

Joe, who has been my winner pick before the season started, did not do me any wonders here. Hardly all he talked about was being FBI in his two confessionals. He was very reminiscent of Kelly Remington.

Aubrey's one big moment was the panic attack. However, there was not enough yet to tell if she plays a role. Goat candidate for now.

Peter is not winning and he just appears to be the type of player that gets taken out after a swap or early merge.

Neil had one important confessional potentially when it was pertaining to his personality and Debbie making a fire. It's one to keep an eye on as he may have a winners edit but don't see anything else(second episode may have changed when I get to it) as far as getting to the endgame and not winning.

Liz appeared to be irrelevant. Possible goat but she's already gone.

Out of the brains tribe if I had to pick a winner from here, it would be Debbie or Neil. If I had to pick a endgamer here it is Debbie.

Beauty
No comment on Caleb

Nick, from his first confessional, appeared smarmy. Talking about how he is unfairly attractive and he'll use his looks to win. The most recent winners of survivor have not been attractive. Also, he did not outshine Tai either, who offered much more background. Nick is not winning but would not rule him out as being a male goat this season depending on his screentime. He may be the new Rodney. Other than that and the chickens and talking in the background there's really nothing else to him.

Michele had one confessional about being a bartender and understanding personalities and all. However, Michele is not going to be able to use her social dynamics in the real world(with likely people near or at her age group) in this game with people of varying ages. And she was not as emphasized other than that.

Anna appeared to to have the strongest female edit on this tribe. She was talking about the girls alliance and using Caleb as a number because of his BB history, However, her confessionals were mostly about Tai. She appears to be the narrator here, which as have been witnessed in the past, is a bad sign if it continues into the next episode(or continued).

Julia? She had the one confessional about how she's a hard worker despite being a sorority girl but when she plays with other age groups outside of her age range, this will come to the surface. It's not a young girls game right now. Other than that she was quiet.

And now we have Tai. Tai had a strong edit. Despite the looking for the idol, this situation can be traced back to Dan Foley's premiere. He was the strongest edited on his tribe but became a early target. Tai had too many brighter moments though unlike Dan with plenty of backstory. Not only that, he was the only one who had a intro confessional not like the others. That said too much Tai could mean early merge or something similar to Jeff Varner in SC.

If there's a winner from this tribe it is Tai. I cannot see anyone else winning here. Tai also had the endgame edit as well alongside Anna. This tribe could have the invisible edit though and that's between Michele, Julia, and Nick. Nick could go both ways depending on the next episodes.

Brawn
Let's save the best(err worst but most compelling) for last. What's not to like about this tribe for entertainment purposes. I read so many comments on this tribe it's incredible.

Scot. No. He officially had the villain edit. This is the new Shane, Coach, Phillip, you name it. While all three of them went far, it's hard to tell with Scot. His problem is there's another male on this tribe that has a better shot at getting to the end, and two cannot both go as "alphas".....

Jason. Well we know based on recent episodes he's just as bad but first episode. Jason shined. His intro was a little hard but compared to Scot, he wasn't shown to be outright negative and knocking off people in confessionals. He actually had a winners edit(but is that the case now?) and definitely has the best one on this tribe, winner or endgame.

Darnell did nothing of note in first episode until challenge.

Cydney also did nothing but be a number for the alliance and talking about how she wanted to protect Darnell and be around strong people and no girls. Her edit is worse than Crystal's after one episode so she's at best a candidate to be a goat. I could see her at the end if this is a Gabon-like season but getting no votes.

Jennifer's only big moment was a medical situation. Those things require attention. Other than that, nothing. I saw nothing that stood out from her at all.

Ah Alecea. Would you believe she was in my pool on FORT because I assumed that she had the Sierra edit but then she has since been voted out and she was not at all invisible the first episode. I would say if I got to see this episode then(or read up on it), I would never have picked her for my pool.

If there's a winner from here, It's Jason. If there's a endgamer from here it's Jason. I could see Cydney taking on the goat role here.

Winner Contenders
Jason
Tai
Debbie
Neal

Endgame contenders+strong edits(including non-winner ones)
Jason
Tai
Anna
Debbie

Goat contenders
Cydney
Michele
Nick
Julia
Aubrey
Joe

Not enough to go on
Nick

Likely a early merge boot
Scot

Episode 2 over the weekend I'll get into.

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... Outsider32 03-15-16 1
 RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... Outsider32 03-15-16 2
 RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... Outsider32 03-18-16 3
   RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... kingfish 03-18-16 4
       RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... Outsider32 03-19-16 5
 RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... Outsider32 03-24-16 6
   RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... Outsider32 03-24-16 7
       RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... kingfish 03-24-16 8
           RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... Outsider32 03-25-16 9
 RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... Outsider32 04-03-16 10
 RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... Outsider32 04-13-16 11
 RE: My editing analysis(potenial sp... Outsider32 05-06-16 12

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Outsider32 499 desperate attention whore postings
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03-15-16, 02:19 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
After episode two.............
Brains
We're getting a little bit emotion all over the place with Liz(and she's been voted out so we know now). The thing about this is last year usually the previous episode forshadowed the boots of PG, Varner, Monica, Kass. And this appeared to be the case with Liz.

Neal was actually who I was leaning toward for the win but he didn't give the confessional of one in this episode. However, the winner pool is light on this episode.

With Aubrey quiet. It's not her that wins. Peter appears to be in over his head, I'm not sure he can make it to the end at all. Joe critizing Liz would make him look bad if Liz is meant to last(which she didn't).

Debbie didn't get anything other than the water stuff but she is appearing to be the main representative in the edit so far.

After this episode, Debbie's presence was acknowledged so she still is a endgame contender so far. Aubrey is a candidate for the goat still, and Neal needs to bounce back the next episode.

Beauty
Tai is once again the star of the tribe, But I'm wondering is her endgame or pre-merge. This is not a early merge edit. He's too much of a gamer. All I can say is if he does not get to the end, then he just may be removed for the cut. As endgamer, he may be a winner contender.

The other star the first episode, Anna, gave one quick confessional but it was about Tai, again. There is no insight about her game or her story other than her intro. Same with Michele. They are not winning.

Nick was quiet here, and he's not the villain of the season that will be a big deal. If he's quiet again next episode, it will reinforce his possible goat position.

Tai is looking like the only important endgamer here if he is. I am confused with Anna's edit. She had a decent first episode. She can still be a late stage player. If she has another episode of being about Tai the next one, then she is perhaps this season's Jenn. Otherwise She's like Tai, end-game of pre-merge.

Brawn
Jason now has just turned a 180. He was anything but likable here. Is he Hantz 2.0? Seeing someone else's take on this that Russell was not shown being talked about behind his back by other players makes me think he's not. But villains can get to the end. Rodney got to the end, Coach got to the end. Jason could be this season's main villain which pretty much ruins it for...

Scot has met his match. Scot now has his ticket null and void for the endgame. He's not going. Scot can go pre-merge or early-merge.

Alecea is not quiet, which is bad. And we now know why.

Cydney is interesting. I said she was no Crystal and she isn't. But her getting these final confessionals before voting while getting nothing throughout the episode. She may not be getting a end-game edit but she could be getting a winner-edit.

Out of this tribe, Jason and perhaps Cydney are emerging as end-gamers but Cydney only if she wins.

My winner contenders
Neal
Debbie
Tai
Cydney

My endgame contenders
Debbie
Tai/Anna..<if Neal or Cyd win, I could see just one of them here>
(Anna)...<this is if the winner comes from Tai or Debbie>
Jason(could perhaps be the penultimate boot)


Goat contenders
Aubrey
Nick
Julia

Michele should have stayed quiet instead of getting a small confessional. She's out. I'm leaning Nick or Aubrey here. But I don't think three beauties make endgame and it appears Debbie and Aubrey are a strong alliance. I can definitely see them and Anna, Tai, and Jason. I could see them with Anna or Tai, Jason, and Neal or Cyd.

Early-merge boot contenders
Peter/Scot/Anna

My initial thought is it's Scot so far for this. Peter also sounds arrogant.

Pre-merge boot/medevac contenders
Liz
(Anna/Tai)
Scot/Peter
Alecea


Not watching makes this a little more confusing than I thought reading transcripts.


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Outsider32 499 desperate attention whore postings
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03-15-16, 10:26 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
I'm all alone here, lol.

It's time for me to cement my predictions.

Brains
It is Debbie's tribe, she will be on the final ballot as I come to the conclusion of my winner.

Neal....a winner has a story, he has none. It's all about him being a threat, and saying Peter needs to be punished. But he's not providing what Mike and Jeremy provided. I have to rule him out. I'm calling him a mid-juror.

Peter I believe is going at or around the merge and Joe I believe gets taken out as well before F5(I think it's a f2 with what we know).

Aubrey....she may not have been ignored here, but she technically is edited to be in Debbie's shadow. Therefore, she may still be a goat as everyone but Julia got a confessional today and taking out the panic attack this was the first time she really spoke since arriving on camp and it was brief.

Beauty
Anna now talks more about her gameplay putting her in position for the endgame. However, her allies will not be joining her. And if you look at the merge I don't see Cyd, Aubrey, Debbie working with those three girls and I know Tai is gonna split as well as possibly Nick. They are in trouble just like the no collars were. How Anna gets to the end will be interesting.

Nick talked, but once. He isn't winning and is still a candidate for goat.

Julia and Michele. Julia's making a case for goat but I don't think she's getting to the end. Michele had nothing in this episode confessional wise and she is looking like a early-mid juror that goes before Neal and Joe.

It is Tai's tribe. Tai talking about his background just reaffirmed what I am talking about with winner edits. Tai's on the final ballot.

Brawn
Scot gave us a glimpse into the future that Jason will cut his throat down the line. Scot is the poser here and Jason is the real villain. However the betrayal is around the corner. I think it's before the merge.

Cydney lasted one episode with me thinking she could win. She's not winning. It's just not her story. I think she's going to be a early juror that gets targeted as an alternative to Jason.

Jason is getting to the end. It is his tribe. But he is not winning.

The winner is between Debbie and Tai. There is no Dreamz this time to ruin it so I'm taking Tai for the win.

I am also picking Debbie, Jason, and Anna to make it to the final two episodes. The goat is Aubrey. If I had to pick a FTC loser, I'm going to say it's Debbie. It makes no sense for Anna to lose to him or for Tai to be sitting next to Jason.

Who is this season's main narrator that goes out earlier than expected? That would be Peter, but it is being done more subtle than before. I just cannot see it being anyone else. Stephen had this kind of edit last season however.


Final five Debbie, Aubrey, Jason, Anna, and Tai(the winner).


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03-18-16, 08:15 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
So after finally watching for the first time, I saw some things that make me want to change my mind.

Debbie.......this is the one that concerns me. She's getting the edit of someone you would think goes far. But I'm asking how? She is so hideous looking and acting I just cannot see how the shallow beauties will want her around. And that's why Debbie's tribe better win next week or Neal may have to use his idol on her for her to stay.

Tai now has pretty much cemented his spot on the beauty tribe. He is still my winner pick for now. But his accent comes off a bit too foreign imo to pull out a win.

Jason was quiet this week and now we have something to consider. I ruled Jason out after episode two. But he gave a positive first impression before that and he's redeemed himself since.

The winner has to be one of those above three I know that. However, do we have a Natalie W this season...........

That would be Cydney or Aubrey. I ruled out Cydney but if this is the season where a villain gets to the end or someone incredibly obnoxious gets to the end, then we have to consider one of these sitting next to them.

Anna leaving through a wrench in things. It would be hard to imagine those three not getting to the end when there is no other person with their kinds of edits.

With Anna gone, I have to move someone into my final five and that is Cydney, and if you look at it, who's going to vote her out anytime soon?

That said, seeing how Anna talked and all I probably should not have given her too much credit.

Debbie, Tai, and Jason are clearly the top edits of their tribes. And the strongest connection to one of them is Cydney.

If Debbie is gone next week then I would not be surprised to see a three person finale. There's not enough big edits to go around.

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03-18-16, 08:35 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
LAST EDITED ON 03-18-16 AT 08:37 PM (EST)

If I had to vote right now it would be Neal, in spite of not having a story so far.

Low key, smart, has a HI, no one is targeting him now or in the foreseeable future (which is about one week, admittedly). Doesn't have the social game that would make anyone target him later in the game, nor is he the kind of challenge threat that would make anyone target him before the merge.


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Outsider32 499 desperate attention whore postings
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03-19-16, 09:08 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
Yeah it's possible it just seems odd for a male player to not be getting a bigger edit. Until Jeremy's win last season, the male winner ended up with the most confessionals usually. Neal isn't even in Jeremy's range at this point. Neal seemed like a winner pick the first show and all. It does seem the winner here will not be a great strategist or player.
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03-24-16, 08:37 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
One of my guesses have just gone bad so now I am back to some reviewing.

When it came to the endgame edits(final five) I had decided on Debbie, Jason, Tai, and Anna plus Aubrey. After Anna was voted out I had to put Cydney in. Back to this in a bit......

When it came to the person I thought would go early merge, I had it being Peter based on the edit and Scot being pre-merge. As it turned out, Peter was pre-merge. So who has the early merge edit of someone who's over narrative? Back to this in a bit....

The winner.......It is simply between two people Tai and Debbie. Or it was. I still stand with Tai until I actually see him medevaced. However, I am rethinking the alternate winner.

Now the most notable edits are the following that were established early on.......
Debbie
Tai
Jason
Scot

The next most consistent edit behind those early on
Cydney

We can basically say one of those first four is out early merge. We can also say the other three are endgame and if one of those are the winners, Cydney has to be in as well. Unless, the invisible one(early on) is the winner this season. Which would be Aubrey.

For Cydney to be in, Jason has to simply be in as well. If Cydney isn't in I was thinking Scot would not be endgame for the longest time. However, I am having to rethink this.

But now it's time to talk about winners other than Tai, Debbie, Aubrey, or Jason(It's not Scot).

The popular narrative on Sucks is that Julia and Michele have winners edits. I'm asking myself how? What is it about them that has winners edits? I could possibly think of one other winner option outside of those I mentioned, and that is Joe. Yes, he's getting a quiet edit and we already know he isn't medevaced as he had medic come to camp(per Probst after the challenge last episode) behind the scenes. Joe has been too quiet though, but so was Bob Crowley. And his FBI profile was again acknowledged. Now two old guys cannot get to the end.

If Tai is the winner, then we have an endgame of the three out of four of Jason, Tai, Debbie, and Scot plus Aubrey and Cydney. If Tai is not the winner, then he's likely the medevac and this season's major character early on(such as SJDS's Jeremy and WA's Jenn) that goes early merge. And if it isn't Tai, prepare for it.........it's Debbie.

There has been a lot speculative of Debbie being the merge boot because of a fake spoiler saying "female coach" was merge boot. But that fake spoiler also had a inaccurate description of everything else including tribe colors, and an tribal alliance down going into merge 5-6. We know that the tribes as they stand are not all sticking together at the merge. That's just common sense. But Debbie and Tai have both been heavily showcased. I had thought Debbie might be endgame but since I have watched the last two episodes, she stands out too much and there was just so much offness about her edit, it seems it's not in line with everyone else's. I can no longer pick her to win for certain. But one of the two likable major characters are having a early merge exit.

So the endgame is either Tai/Debbie, Jason, Scot, Aubrey, and Cydney/Joe. Logic would say if it's Tai it's Cydney and Debbie it's Joe or Cydney.

If Tai is out early, then we have to look at two winner options:Aubrey or Joe. Between these two looking at some interesting developments, Aubrey's story has mostly been about Peter. Now that he's gone what's next for her? I consider her to be this season's goat that could actually win. I never considered it before, but often when a woman wins the editing usually makes less sense. The only male with a true winners edit is Tai. There's something about Aubrey that says the next Sophie Clark. There's something about Joe that says the next Bob Crowley. But I will go ahead and say Joe cannot win unfortunately as there usually is never two goats at the endgame(edit wise)

So endgame scenario one.....Tai, Jason, Scot, Cydney, and Aubrey with Tai winning.

Endgame scenario two.....Debbie, Aubrey, Jason, Scot, and Cydney with Aubrey winning.

With the big character going out early being Debbie or Tai.

One more thing as I spoke of this before it's between two people for penultimate boot:Jason and Scot. I will go Scot.

Placement
5.Scot
4.Aubrey/Cydney
3.Cydney/Jason
2.Jason/Debbie
1.Tai/Aubrey

/=placement of which endgame occurs.

And if I'm wrong about Joe, then I'm sorry.

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Outsider32 499 desperate attention whore postings
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03-24-16, 08:39 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
Btw that rumor about Debbie I just learned.
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03-24-16, 09:17 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
One thing to keep in mind when getting heavily invested in Tai and Debbie's edits. They are natural camera friendly personalities, and the editors would be on them more than the others whether or not they were end gamers.

Even if they don't make it to the end, they will be heavily featured because they are the entertainment.

There have been exceptions, but normally someone that plays as hard as Debbie has been playing just doesn't last. Tai is playing also, but for him it's an inconvenience that he has to attend to because he's intelligent enough to see he needs to. His is the reluctant soft sell, and hers is the hard sell because she relishes the hard sell.

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03-25-16, 11:00 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
LAST EDITED ON 03-25-16 AT 11:01 PM (EST)

I try to look more into those edits. Like backstory and strategy confessionals and the constant reminding "this is how you're going to get to the end" which Debbie has told us every week. Also, while they have big edits, we're not getting enough other medium edits, it's just Jason and Scot. So that's factoring into things as well. Michele, Julia, Nick, Neal, and Joe did not give me anything to go on early on. There's got to be a fifth if not one of them.

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04-03-16, 03:23 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
Nothing's really changed. This episode pretty much built Aubrey's case more against Tai's. But if Tai finds himself at the end he has to win.

I'm not sure at all how next week goes and after Tai surviving the medevac scare it appears now Debbie is the one in danger. But Debbie's most negative episode happened to be in a episode that did not result in TC so I am not putting Tai completely in endgame yet. I think the next boot will be one of the major players and that boot will be Debbie or Tai.

As of now I cannot stay with Tai alone as winner and it is either him or Aubrey. Jason's edit is even more negative and now I don't think he's a finalist.

In my scenario with Tai winning the final five is Tai, Jason, Cydney, Scot, and Aubrey with the order being 1.Tai 2.Scot 3.Jason 4.Aubrey 5.

In my scenario with Aubrey winning the final five is Aubrey, Debbie, Jason, Scot, and Cydney with the order being 1.Aubrey 2.Debbie 3.Jason 4.Cydney 5.Scot

Now I am beginning to question one thing and that is if the winner and utr can be the same. Idk, which is why I may ponder on if Michele or Nick should be in instead of Cydney. But Cydney looks to be getting to the end something about her edit is just odd, not utr but also not emphasized enough. But Cyd could finish perhaps just outside the endgame(sixth since I see a f4 finale) and if that's the case one of them enters the equation.

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04-13-16, 09:35 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
With Debbie now gone, Tai, Aubrey, Jason, Scot have punched their ticket to the final five. Now who's the fifth, is it still Cydney? I'm not sure on this one, it could be Michele or Joe.

It is looking more and more like Aubrey is winning. But her edit could very well be roadkill. She seems to be very over the top. I have to say she is not this season's utr, I think that is now Joe or Julia. I'm going Joe.

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05-06-16, 09:03 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: My editing analysis(potenial spoiler-related)"
Well I completely failed with the analysys this year in determining endgame. There was a new edit that apparently developed in the pre-merge that has shown up in the endgame. The secondary edit(behind the big characters and the big edits for pre-merge boots), which consists of all except perhaps Aubrey. Joe was the second most visible first two shows behind Debbie not including Liz and Peter on Chanloh. On Gondol, it was Michele behind Tai not including Anna and that other guy. On Totang it was Cydney behind Jason and Scot.

As Kingfish pointed out, they would show big characters regardless but if they were endgame there would be other elements to their story and as we now know, Scot, Debbie, and Jason were all OTT.

I had Tai winning first but seeing his mid merge edit with the bullies I went back on it and went for Aubrey and now seeing he's not like that I am now confused on who really wins. Are we really going to have another Natalie W this season? That's the case if Michele wins. Even though Michele was a little more visible than Nat W. Most people do not want her to win.

I cannot see these castaways not respecting Aubrey's gameplay if she's at the FTC. If she gets to the end, she simply has to win.

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