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"S: 32| Confessionals Tracker"
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Flowerpower1 1670 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall"

02-20-16, 11:04 AM (EST)
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"S: 32| Confessionals Tracker"
LAST EDITED ON 02-21-16 AT 10:55 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 02-21-16 AT 10:50†PM (EST)

Kicking off the confessionals for another season. I welcome ALL input. I readily admit that I am not the master at interpretation, but I will point out things that I notice and hope that everyone will comment on anything regarding the confessionals. The more the merrier!

This season I thought that the confessionals were really spread out fairly evenly and served to introduce us to all of the daws! I have divided confessionals for the first episode between confessionals during the intro, there were 9, and then confessionals for episode 1, which are post-introduction, and totals. I have put initials for their respective tribes, after their names. Chanloh = Brains, ToTang = Brawn, Gondol = Beauty

Finally, when one has a confessional, then it is broken up by them doing or interacting with someone which shows them doing what they are saying in the confessional, then pick up again to continue the confessional, I will count that as ONE confessional. When there is a confessional, and it's broken up by someone elses confessional, then followed by another confessional by the first person, then I will count those as 2 independent confessionals.

episode        | I | 1 | total

Scot To | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Tai Go | 1 | 4 | 5 |
Anna Go | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 |
Debbie Ch | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Aubrey Ch | . | 3 | 3 |
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Cydney Go | 0 | 3 | 3 |
KyleJason To | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 3 |
Neal Ch | . | 3 | 3 |
Nick Go | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Peter Ch | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Darnell To | . | 2 | 2 | X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 2 |
Joe Ch | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Michele Go | . | 2 | 2 |
Julia Go | . | 1 | 1 |


Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2 |




There were 9 confessionals in the introduction. First we had 2 confessionals from each tribe = 6, leaving 3 more. I felt as though the first 2 confessionals from each tribe served to introduce us to the tribes and the people on them. I felt that the remaining 3 confessionals were confessionals perhaps by some of the featured characters of the season, who were Caleb, Joe, and Tai.

For Brains we had Peter and Debbie. Peter told us that he's an ER Doctor and that it would be hard for him not to show how smart he is and show humility. He ended it with But, I can't deal with ignorant people because they think they know what they are talking about....which then cuts to Debbie's confessional.

The way these 2 confessionals were presented, and how it segued in to Debbie's confessional, it inferred that Debbie is one of those "ignorant" people that Peter just mentioned. Debbie admits that this is mainly a brain game, and that puzzles lay down for her like lovers.

For Brawn we had the 2 biggest boys: Scot, the ex pro bball player, who did the things that nobody else wanted to do, knock people down, push people out of the way. When he says this we see Nick sitting in the back ground. Foreshadowing? Then, he talks about getting along with the strong, see Daryl and Jason, and if you show a sign of weakness, Bye bye! His confessional ended with a very hearty very low laugh...
Next, Jason had a confessional. All about being the bounty hunter, and he didn't care, it's a pay check. Will this be how he plays this game, he doesn't care just as long as he gets his paycheck? I think these 2 could be players, and they gave us how they will play the game, Scot rolling over everyone, using his biggest advantage, his size, and Jason, who will do anything he has to to get the paycheck.

For the Beauty tribe we had Anna, who will accent her virtues if she thinks someone is noticing, and then Nick, who knows his life has been easier because of his looks, and he knows it. They will each capitalize on the strengths they know they possess.

These were all samplings of the players within the divided tribes and their confessionals reflected why they were divided into these tribes. They are all significant, imo. I remind you that last season there were only a few people that didn't get intro confessionals that were not end game players. Will that apply this season as well?

Next, some of the characters of the season: Caleb, who was on BB, but he's an outdoorsman who doesn't mind getting dirty; Joe, an ex FBI agent who is used to going a mile a minute, but this is the real deal for him, and finally Tai, who is trying to save the chicken because he loves all living creatures. I would be shocked if any of the last 3 are winners.

In sum the 9 with confessionals in the intro included 4 from the Beauty tribe: Anna, Nick, Caleb, and Tai; 3 from the Brains: Peter, Debbie, Joe; and 2 from the Brawn tribe: Scot and Jason. With four from the beauty tribe we have to wonder if that will be the dominant force this season? I also wonder if the girls in the Brawn tribe will be insignificant since we didn't hear from any of them.

For the episode Scot, Tai, and Alecia had the most confessionals. I felt that Scot played the narrator of his tribe. He commented on the great group that he had, then he commented on poor Jenny, how he was worried about the challenge, then he comments about Darnell and Alecia are on the chopping block, but it's only one, Darnell, that is dead weight... and, finally, he comments on Alecia, how they were just trying to give her blatant hints to stay calm, cause right now you are killing yourself. Scot was also seen playing a very contrasting game from Tai. After Tai saved the chicken on the boat, we saw Scot catch the loose chicken and wring it's neck!

Tai had confessionals. He first asked why is he on the beauty tribe, Iím bald, big head, skinny little body, I just think when I go home people gonna say, HUH? they may ask, why they put you on beauty tribe? Ask my boyfriend or somebody? I think personalities may come out, we all have beautiful inside and outside.... Next, he comments how he loves all living creatures especially plants, talks about how cutting off the branches changes them forever, and then goes in depth about his own story of survival going on a boat with no food and little water to a refugee camp in near Cambodia, then coming to America. He's ready for the adventure... Next, he tells us about going to look for the idol, and his final confessional was that he screwed up, went looking for a half an hour and got caught. This all set the dynamics at Beauty. Tai, who others wondered why he was on beauty, Caleb, and he wondered as well, then he's clearly older than the others, and then to top it off, he breaks from the group to aggressively search for the idol. It's clear, if this tribe goes to TC, Tai is on the bottom at this point.

Alicia was the boot decoy and her confessionals reflected all of this. First one was in regard to her looking like Malibu Barbie, but she's done a lot in her life and knows she can do this, then she worried about being on the chopping block, then her plan was to blame it all on Darnell, and finally didn't think she could trust Scot, Darnell was her only option.

Debbie had an intro confessional and 3 episode confessionals. Clearly she is a character and has said that her favorite survivor is Coach. She does remind me of Coach a bit. Additionally from her confessionals, she's seen a lot! Like when they get on their raft and she yells, "We're having fun now, kids!", then she goes on to yell, "You know what? Who's a good swimmer, because I am an EXCELLENT swimmer!" She called out Peter for looking like Obama. She told Joe that she was a captain of the civil air patrol, I can get a fire started without flint,I have extensive experience in shelter building, winter survival, summer survival...

Her first conf. was all about what she has done...chemist, photonics manufacturer, electronics expert, .....2nd conf was about her and Joe having the wisdom to know they actually have to survive here, mostly for her and Joe, but they show Debbie not doing things as she should, but rather insisting on doing things her way. The showed Joe telling her she would need the saw for the bamboo, but she said no, and used the ax, and bumbled all up. Clearly, she's not going to take direction.

Her next conf. was regarding Aubrey and the state she was in, while it showed the grateful Aubrey.

Aubrey had 3 confessionals because she had the little anxiety attack, she was portrayed as their weakest link this episode, but we heard the young ones were going to try and stick together and target the old folks, which was Neal's suggestion. Aubrey is telling us that she is going to get in her own head and that could be her biggest test out there.

While Aubrey appeared to be weak at camp, she nailed it in the challenge, so I would say she's not going anywhere next.

Caleb: As one of the characters this season, I think he's getting a very favorable edit. We saw him on the boat, prioritizing and getting things done, chasing the chickens, getting the raft down, getting a very large bunch of bananas, and having fun while doing it, the flip off the boat. Then, we see him working, working, and working. He did get an intro conf.. His confessionals had to do with wondering why Tai was on the beauty tribe, and I will say that he may have come across as somewhat racist with the remark about the "Mr. Miyagi" glasses? But, I have to wonder if it was just ignorance. I don't think that he is racist....? But, this confessional set up Tai, when it ended with, Maybe there is a lot more to him than we really see? Then we proceeded to get Tai's opinion and we could start to see his inner beauty.

Caleb's next confessional notes that he was Beast Mode Cowboy from BB, but he's a lot more than that...I was in the military right outta hs, I was a prison guard in Baghdad Iraq, so I have been through alot of things that alot of people have not had to go through. If I am in a competition where I am standing on my tippy toes for 3 hrs then I am going to stand on my tippy toes for 3 hours...until the last person gives up.

This is the stuff that EPMB and Jiffy dream of, he's their dream player, the man's man, and it's underlined by the others watching him up in the coconut tree chopping palm fronds and Michele comments that he is in the right tribe because he sure looks beautiful up there, then we see him making the fire, and being successful at it, they all bond and cheer and he's the golden boy!

The confessional ends with Living my daily life and being from the outdoors this is home to me...I know what it takes to make a fire, iíll do whatever I have to do to get to what I want. I believe I am probably mentally stronger than anyone in this game.

Caleb was seen as getting along, not being too annoying, working very hard, he's a keeper! They even showed Anna talking about Caleb very positively that she knows he never turned on his BB alliance and he's loyal, that's the kind of guy she wants to play with! Always a positive sign when others talk about you in a good way! (contrast this to Debbie, Alecia, and Tai, where others are talking about them in a negative way).

Kyle Jason had 3 confessionals, 1 in the intro, 2 in the episode. This man is a player, at least that was my take on him. His first confessional tells us how he will play the game, go in there do what it takes and get the paycheck. Next conf: On the brawn tribe there will be a lot of people that think they are the greatest. I did 6 years in the army, I donít need need to prove to you that I am a bad a$$. Alot of people find me intimidating, they judge me because of how I look...they donít realize that I have 2 daughters and my youngest has autism. I can be the girly girl dad, but I also teach them how to be a bad a$$.

I think, he's a serious bad a$$! I found it interesting that when they went around and told each other what they did, we saw Darnell, Alecia, Scot, Jenny all say what they were but we didn't get to see what Jason told them, or how they may have reacted to it...?

I also enjoyed the exchange with Scot, regarding there are only 5 of us (thinking like a true basketball player), and Jason reminded him, "6 of us". Then Scot noted, "I'm on the Brawn tribe".

This little snippet made me think that Jason will be the brains in the operation, not Scot.

Jason's next conf. was about how he's fried, but he's giving it his all, he works hard physically, then thinks about things as he goes. Getting his insight onto how he operates. He finishes by noting that Blondie doesn't do anything and she's on the bottom. Then we see him align with Scot, next we see him aligning with Cydney, and they shake. And, he finishes the confessional: The truth is, in my eyes, I want as many alliances as possible. In my eyes these alliances are only truthful when i need them, potentially they could all be truthful, but they could all be bull. Iíll make that decision as I need to make them...

Jason to Jenny, seen shaking her hand too, then he asks her, you got any matches?

We saw Jason make 3 alliances in a tribe of 6. He's a player alright!

Liz had 3 confessionals. I saw her as somewhat of a narrator on Brains. She's definitely on the right tribe for her, and thinks they have the biggest advantage, which is supported when they win the challenge first! Then she comments on Debbie with all the talking and being annoying and finally the conf. about how Aubrey really just had an anxiety attack and she thinks there is a good chance she'll crack again...1 confessional of her assessment of the Brains tribe, and then 2 negative things about 2 other tribemates.

Neal: Neal was seen on his raft all alone paddling when Jiffy said, 39 days, 18 players, and 1 survivor to claim the million dollar prize...interesting to note. I wonder if he is the sole survivor, or he was placed there because he is a millionaire already?

HIs first conf. introduces himself as the ice-cream maker and that he is "quirky, incorrigible, and eccentric, but Debbie is a whole new level of crazy!. Then goes on to bash her on her instructing how to make the fire, and hear Peter comment, then Neal ends his conf. with, in past seasons seems like the really smart folks always have some form of kryptonite. So, I am a little concerned that being on the brains tribe might be complete and utter madness.....throws a plank of wood....

Then, the next conf. talks about the younger stronger 4 sticking together and targeting the older, weaker ones. He will target whoever does the worst in the challenge. Finally, he comments about Aubrey and his fear that it could be like the last brains tribe where the brains go nuts and just get shellac'd. Well, I don't know about that, cause I remember 2 out of the last 4 players in the game were Brains players...we'll see.

Nick had an intro conf. and 2 confessionals in the episode. First conf in the ep. was that he loved his beauty tribe, and everyone was happy and beautiful, and worked so well together. (What a contrast to Neal's confessionals!). The last conf. was in regard to the chickens escaping and he narrated it....wasn't the best start but they got 2 of them back, 66%, I'll take it!

Then we hear Tai have the idea to tie them up together and he does and they are so much happier, and we hear Nick go, "but they will be dead in 2 days!"

Peter had the first confessional of the game. The episode confessionals were: His comments regarding looking like Obama, but If they feel better being crushed by Obama, then so be it! The next conf: In our group we have 4 young people and 2 old people. the fact that I say that they are old means that they already stick out. Joe and Debbie are low hanging fruit so...theyíre going to be eaten first.

This confessional is narration, and it reiterates what Neal planned.

Darnell got 2 confessionals, and he was the boot. First one was how tough it was growing up in Chicago, then the last one was about screwing up in the challenge and there was a good chance he's going home. Nuff said.

Jennifer: First confessional all about the bug in her ear, and the second one just tells us that she's good to go, 39 days, bring it. She was shown making an alliance with Jason, and she's also shown to be a hard worker and socially good.

Joe had one confessional in the intro as a character, the 71 year old, and one other conf. about his intuitiveness as an ex. FBI agent and he thinks he has it to be the sole survivor. As Jeff said at TC, he's talking the talk, but can he walk the walk?

Michele: She had 2 confessionals. The first one was telling us that she's a bartender and good at sizing up people. Sizes Tai up, he's like a whirl wind always moving, Caleb is really strong, and Nick is the really dreamy guy, that will get to see her so disgustingly dirty.....This confirms Nick's first confessional, that he just may have it a little easier in life. Later the girls thought he had to be a model. Definitely seems that Nick's looks are deceiving. Her confessional was better for Caleb and Nick than it was for her. Her last conf. was about not trusting Tai anymore, he's made his bed....

Julia had 1 confessional, but she was seen a lot at the beauty tribe, working hard and aligning with Anna. She also knew about Caleb, she's socially aware, and is upbeat. Her lone conf. was about being underestimated as a sorority girl, but she can pull her own weight, will make instant connections with these people, and predicts that the 3 girls will do well.

Very positive confessional for the little right outta HS, player! Her actions in the tribe underline the weight of her confessional.

All in all I think they did a lot to introduce us to the characters of the season, the characters that will tell the story, perhaps, Peter, Debbie, Scot, Jason, Anna, and Nick and the characters of the season, Caleb, Tai, and Joe.

I got a negative vibe from Neal....Debbie downer. Liz seemed to echo that as well, remarking on the talkative, annoying, Debbie, and then the anxiety laden, Aubrey.

I would say at risk for the next episode: Neal, Liz, Joe, Debbie, Alecia, Tai. I don't think Aubry. I suspect that Debbie will be okay, though. And, from the vidcaps posted for future episodes, we know that Tai won't go anywhere. So, 3 brains and a brawn at risk.



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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: S: 32| Confessionals Tracker Sheldor 02-21-16 1
   RE: S: 32| Confessionals Tracker tribephyl 02-21-16 3
   RE: S: 32| Confessionals Tracker michel2 02-21-16 5
 RE: S: 32| Confessionals Tracker kingfish 02-21-16 2
 RE: S: 32| Confessionals Tracker michel2 02-21-16 4
   Thanks! Flowerpower1 02-21-16 6
 Episode 2 Confessionals... Flowerpower1 02-26-16 7
   RE: Episode 2 Confessionals... Sheldor 02-26-16 8
       RE: Episode 2 Confessionals... michel2 02-27-16 9
           RE: Episode 2 Confessionals... Sheldor 02-27-16 10
 An Historical Perspective... Flowerpower1 03-03-16 11
 Episode 3, Confessionals Flowerpower1 03-05-16 12
   RE: Episode 3, Confessionals SquidProQuo 03-05-16 13
       RE: Episode 3, Confessionals Flowerpower1 03-05-16 14
           RE: Episode 3, Confessionals tribephyl 03-06-16 15
 Episode 4, Confessionals Flowerpower1 03-15-16 16
   RE: Episode 4, Confessionals Sheldor 03-15-16 17
 Episode 5 Confessionals Flowerpower1 03-18-16 18
 Episode 6 confessionals... Flowerpower1 03-25-16 19
 Previous Winners Counts Flowerpower1 03-27-16 20
   RE: Previous Winners Counts CTgirl 03-28-16 21
       RE: Previous Winners Counts Flowerpower1 03-29-16 22
           RE: Previous Winners Counts CTgirl 03-29-16 23
               RE: Previous Winners Counts SquidProQuo 03-29-16 24
                   RE: Previous Winners Counts Flowerpower1 03-29-16 25
                   RE: Previous Winners Counts Sheldor 03-29-16 26
                       RE: Previous Winners Counts SquidProQuo 03-29-16 27
                       RE: Previous Winners Counts Flowerpower1 03-29-16 28
   RE: Previous Winners Counts michel2 03-29-16 29
 Episode 7 Confessionals, Merge Flowerpower1 04-01-16 30
 Episode 8, Jocks vs. the Pretty Peo... Flowerpower1 04-08-16 31
   RE: Episode 8, Jocks vs. the Pretty... SquidProQuo 04-09-16 32
   RE: Episode 8, Jocks vs. the Pretty... tribephyl 04-10-16 33
       RE: Episode 8, Jocks vs. the Pretty... Flowerpower1 04-10-16 34
 Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare" Flowerpower1 04-19-16 35
   RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare" michel2 04-19-16 36
       RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare" Flowerpower1 04-19-16 37
           RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare" michel2 04-19-16 38
       RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare" Sheldor 04-19-16 39
           RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare" Flowerpower1 04-19-16 40
               RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare" michel2 04-20-16 41
 Ep 10 Confessionals... Flowerpower1 04-27-16 42
   RE: Ep 10 Confessionals... Sheldor 04-27-16 43
       RE: Ep 10 Confessionals... Flowerpower1 04-27-16 44
           RE: Ep 10 Confessionals... michel2 04-27-16 46
       RE: Ep 10 Confessionals... michel2 04-27-16 45
           RE: Ep 10 Confessionals... Sheldor 04-27-16 47
 Ep 11 Confessionals Flowerpower1 05-04-16 48
   RE: Ep 11 Confessionals michel2 05-04-16 49
       RE: Ep 11 Confessionals Flowerpower1 05-04-16 50
           RE: Ep 11 Confessionals Bebo 05-04-16 51
   RE: Ep 11 Confessionals Flowerpower1 05-07-16 52
 Episode 2 confessionals... Flowerpower1 05-09-16 53
   RE: Episode 2 confessionals... michel2 05-09-16 54
       RE: Episode 2 confessionals... Flowerpower1 05-09-16 55
           RE: Episode 12 confessionals... Sheldor 05-09-16 56
   RE: Episode 2 confessionals... Sheldor 05-11-16 57
 Episode 13 Confessionals, Pre-Final... Flowerpower1 05-17-16 58
   RE: Episode 13 Confessionals, Pre-F... michel2 05-17-16 59
       RE: Episode 13 Confessionals, Pre-F... Flowerpower1 05-17-16 60
           RE: Episode 13 Confessionals, Pre-F... michel2 05-17-16 61
               RE: Episode 13 Confessionals, Pre-F... Sheldor 05-24-16 62

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Sheldor 1126 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-16, 08:24 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: S: 32| Confessionals Tracker"
WOW! THANKS so much for all that work Flowerpower!

S32 8 players did NOT have Intro Confessional
Alecia, Aubry
(note: no "E" in her name), Liz, Neal, Darnell (1st Boot), Jennifer, Michele, Julia

That does not bode well for those 8 players if the editing is similar to Season 31!
Last season the 8 players that did not have an Intro Confessional

  • NONE made the Final 3
  • By Episode 6, *SIX* of the 8 were Off the show!
  • Only Stephen and Keith made it to the Merge/Jury

S31 8 players did NOT have Intro Confessional
Off 1-3: Vytas, Shirin, Peih-Gee
Off 5-7: Monica, Terry, Woo
Off 12 : Stephen
Off 16 : Keith

Re: " And, from the vidcaps posted for future episodes, we know that Tai won't go anywhere. "

Is there another photo of Tai in a future challenge besides the one where he is falling in that bamboo obstacle which I pointed out is part of the next Immunity Challenge?

However with all of Jeff/CBS promoting the unlikely bromance between Tai/Caleb they both probably make it through a few more episodes at least until Episode 4 when the big medical issues occur.

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tribephyl 12102 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-16, 02:46 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: S: 32| Confessionals Tracker"
The leg injury is Tai's and in the caps of the infection he is wearing his bathing suit (which have yet to be delivered to the castaways).

So he at the very least, makes it past ep2+. (Whenever it is the castaways receive their bathing suits)


He is also seen in the cap of the thought to be Ep.4 challenge where someone is soon to be med-evac'd. As a witness...

(...Along with Julia)

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michel2 1614 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-16, 03:06 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: S: 32| Confessionals Tracker"
I don't think this season will follow the same pattern though because some of the players that didn't have opening confessionals still had strong episodes.


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kingfish 19073 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-16, 10:36 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: S: 32| Confessionals Tracker"
Once again, great job Flo. And very astute evaluations.

But something tells me that the thing about Tai is just another red herring. He is so competent around camp and endearingly entertaining, that I think if Beauty goes to TC that they will find someone else to boot.

Solo searches for HIs can't be that big of a thing, I'm sure that everyone in thinking about doing it themselves.

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michel2 1614 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-16, 03:03 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: S: 32| Confessionals Tracker"
Great job, FP. Tracking the numberm of confessional is of great use in analyzing the edit so I'll always be looking in.

One thing I have to say though is that Debbie as to be considered at risk. 4 confessionals could be a sign that her story peaked too early.


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Flowerpower1 1670 desperate attention whore postings
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02-21-16, 10:53 PM (EST)
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6. "Thanks!"
Yes, she should be at risk, thanks so much, Michel! I will note it.

King: Tai isn't going anywhere for a while at least. He's seen in the ep 4 vidcaps as noted by Tribe up above.

Thanks for the input everyone!

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Flowerpower1 1670 desperate attention whore postings
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02-26-16, 07:19 PM (EST)
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7. "Episode 2 Confessionals..."
LAST EDITED ON 02-27-16 AT 12:56 PM (EST)

episode        | I | 1 | 2 | total

Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 8
Tai Go | 1 | 4 | 3 | 8
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
KyleJason To | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 7
Scot To | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7
Debbie Ch | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5
Peter Ch | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5
Anna Go | 1 | 3 | . | 4
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4
Joe Ch | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4
Neal Ch | . | 3 | 1 | 4
Sydney Go | . | 3 | 1 | 4
Aubrey Ch | . | 3 | . | 3
Michele Go | . | 2 | 1 | 3
Nick Go | 1 | 2 | . | 3
Julia Go | . | 1 | 1 | 2


Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X

This week Jenny had the most confessionals in her boot week. She told us that she questioned if they were doing the right thing re: last TC, that she liked that Alecia was not a quitter. After the challenge she tells us that Jason is pissing her off, and we see Jason being disgusting, talking smack about Alecia, belching, and throwing his dead skin peel into the water pot...., which all confirms Jenny's perception. Then she expresses doubts ...as she is explaining her impulse control (or lack of it), we see her express doubt to boot Alecia because she likes Scot, as she is winding up the rope, as though she's about to hang herself. And, we know that she indeed does just that at TC.

Alecia had 4 confessionals this week because once again, she was the boot decoy, choice. Malibu Barbie may be a scrambler, but she reminds me of Eliza. You think she is getting voted off every time, yet she manages to survive. Let's see if she can survive as long as Eliza did. She first expressed doubt that they didn't want to vote her out, she was confused...then she believed she was at the bottom but was determined not to quit. As she says, "I don't believe in giving up", we see Jason lying down in the shelter snoozing, does this imply that Jason will "give up" down the road? She makes fire. She's frustrated that the "hitman" and the NBA player are having nap time while she is busting her butt to make fire. Next, she puts 2 + 2 together and declares, not once did any of them ask me to be in an alliance, so off she goes to hunt for the idol. Finally, she notes how quickly things can change and that she will do a happy dance if it's Jason and not her!

Jason also had 4 confessionals this week because he was a boot choice as well. Jason is starting to have confessionals that paint him as villainous, imo. First, Alecia is lucky and she's driving him nuts. (good thing he's not on Brains tribe, lol!) Next, he's fried so it's just another horrible day, he can take it but needs to stay in the shelter, then he tells us that their tribe is on the way to being the worst tribe in history, and finally, he talked about Alecia being a ditz, and dumb, an ostrich, a bird that can't fly....(as we see Alecia working to build fire and he is lazy in the shelter).

Jason speaks from his perception and is not doing straight narrating. He's shown to be rude, as Jenny pointed out, and lazy, as is seen when Alecia is working, as well as sinister, watching him flip his peeled skin into the pot, and laughing that's what they will feed Blondie. Villain...at least for this episode. He was the one that foiled Jenny at TC as well, as it was his name that came up. (Smart on Alecia's part, not so "ditzy" of her).

Looks like next week Alecia and Jason may clash again, but this time finding the idol.

Liz, at Brains, also had 4 confessionals. She spoke about how cohesive their tribe was becoming after the challenge win. Then, she points out that Debbie can talk the talk, but isn't walking the walk, narrational. Next she tells us that she was upset she didn't get water and needed it, and that Joe wasted the kerosene and spoiled the matches, so she went off by herself, as she felt emotional, but was confident she could stay till she was okay and they would make fire again. Liz had one upbeat assessment about the tribe, then called out Debbie, and Joe, truthfully, and was able to remove herself when she was emotional. I think this is positive for Liz. She's astute, and can conceal her emotions. But, others are noticing her and being annoyed by her.

Tai had 3 confessionals. One very large one surrounding finding the first half of the idol clues and his inability to get the final key, then the other two about Caleb and eating the eyeballs and the "stolen Kiss". Tai's a character and now he found an idol.

Scot, Peter, and Joe had 2 confessionals each. Scot noted that now that they had fire and chicken they were getting stronger and stronger and they need to start winning some challenges, then after the challenge he noted that they lost the challenge, AGAIN, but the 4 of them were strong and he'd be SHOCKED to see if they flipped. Serious foreshadowing. Scot's 2 confessionals were wrapped around the challenge.

Peter's confessionals were all about Debbie. When he first met her he said she was the lady with 40 cats, at home, now. The next one was about that is the kind of brain you want to have with you....a brain without a game, and he's keeping her around as long as he can!

Joe: Joe's confessionals went from positive last week to negative this week. Joe talked about his survival skills while commenting the others only had book sense. All this while we see he spilled and wasted the kerosene, and ruined the matches...then he gets frustrated and mad at Liz, and starts saying "pathogens my butt". Isn't acting like the wise old sage. As michel noted one of the themes of the show to be about "walking the walk", Joe is seen here talking the talk but NOT walking the walk.

The following DAWs had one confessional:

Debbie: Talking the talk, and I can't wait till she gets sick....first and only conf was about Liz was a smart girl but she's sure that there are no organic chemicals in the water, she can tell just by looking at it, and she's been drinking it since day one. (And, I think, this girl is on the brains tribe? What about parasites and bugs...giardia, protozoan parasites, all kinds of NASTY stuff could be in that water....ugh! Makes me sick just to think about it.) Certainly not walking the walk.

Caleb: Talks about that he's not a homophobe, and if you need to cuddle me to warm up than so be it, and that he likes hanging out with Tai, although you just don't see people like Tai where he is from. Endearing.

Neal: Had one confessional and it was complaining about how Joe lost their precious commodity of kerosene and people could get sick. ( I think, why don't they just use your brains as well as your flint??) What the heck! Another negative for Neal.

Michele and Julia: Both had 1 confessional describing the relationship between Caleb and Tai. Narrational, positive, fun.

Cydney: Talks about how Jenny is all over the place, but it's not the time to be all over the place as you are leaving for TC. I note that this is the second episode in a row that Cydney got the final confessional before TC.

Biggest changes: *Jenny went from 2 to 5 in her boot episode.
Spikes:
*Kyle Jason went from 2 - 4.
*Liz: from 3 to 4. spike
*Joe: 1 to 2

Dips:
Scot: 4 to 2
Debbie: 3 to 1
Anna/Aubry: 3 to UTR
Cydney/Neal: 3 to 1
Nick: 2 to UTR
Michele/Caleb: 2 to 1
Tai: 4 to 3

Stay the same:
Julia
Peter
Alecia

Confessionals summary: WE know that Brains are going to TC, so everyone else is safe. I think Peter and Debbie are both safe this week...

At risk: Joe, Liz,
Possible hidden boots: Aubry, Neal


RIP

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Sheldor 1126 desperate attention whore postings
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02-26-16, 07:43 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Episode 2 Confessionals..."
Another player with No Intro Confessional gets voted out!

S32 8 players did NOT have Intro Confessional
Alecia, Aubry, Liz, Neal, Darnell (1st Boot), Jennifer (2nd Boot), Michele, Julia

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02-27-16, 01:44 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Episode 2 Confessionals..."
You're missing Cydney in that list.
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02-27-16, 08:30 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: Episode 2 Confessionals..."
michel2 wrote: "You're missing Cydney in that list. "

Ah! I thought there were 9 players that didn't have an Intro Confessional! Thanks for the correction!

Updated:
Another player with No Intro Confessional gets voted out!

S32 9 players did NOT have Intro Confessional
Brains: Aubry, Liz, Neal
Beauty: Michele, Julia
Brawn: Alecia, Cydney, Darnell (1st Boot), Jennifer (2nd Boot)

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03-03-16, 08:14 PM (EST)
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11. "An Historical Perspective..."
I thought it could be helpful to make a graph so we can see just how many confessionals the top three placers of the last 7 seasons had. I will note how many Intro confessionals they had, and then note the number of episodes that they had 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5+ confessionals. For comparison, it may help us draw perspectives for this season and perhaps future seasons. *I am counting the number of confessionals in the episodes to episode 13, and I am not counting the intro confessionals with the episode 1 totals.

# conf's | I | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+

*Jeremy | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1
Spencer | 1 | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4
Tasha | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1
*Mike | 1 | . | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5
Carolyn | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | . | 3
Will | . | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .
*Natalie | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 ~sharp increase at ep 10
Jaclyn | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | . | 1
Baylor | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | .
*Tony | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8
Woo | . | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | .
Kass | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4
*Tyson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1
Monica | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 2 | .
Gervase | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | . | 1 | .
*Cochran | . | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5
Dawn | . | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | . | 1
Sherri | . | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | . | .
*Denise | . | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 1 | .
Lisa | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3
Mike | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | . | 1 | 2

What we can tell:

Almost all of them got intro confessionals. Caramoan, as the second F v Favs was different. Jiffy introduced them, and I couldn't tell from the Editing thread or the confessionals if they had intro confessionals or not. ugh. But, from present to Caramoan, all top three finishers with the exception of Will and Woo, got intro confessionals. So, more likely that our top three finishers are indeed in those 9 intro confessionals of this season.

Will and Woo were both edited to be insignificant characters to the story, Woo was a sidekick, and Will was just???

Of the winners: Jeremy, Mike, Tony had a confessional in every episode. Natalie had 2 episodes with 0 confessionals, while Tyson, Cochran and Denise all had one episode with 0 confessionals. So, if our winner isn't a huge personality this season, then chances are pretty good that they will go completely under the radar in at least one episode. No winner has been completely under the radar for more than 2 episodes ~ and Natalie was pretty hidden until Jeremy went home.

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03-05-16, 06:17 PM (EST)
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12. "Episode 3, Confessionals"
episode        | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | total

Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11
Tai Go | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 10
Scot To | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10
KyleJason To | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Debbie Ch | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8
Peter Ch | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6
Cydney Go | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6
Anna Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 5
Neal Ch | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5
Joe Ch | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | 4
Aubrey Ch | . | 3 | . | 1 | 4
Nick Go | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 4
Michele Go | . | 2 | 1 | . | 3
Nick Go | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 4
Julia Go | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2


Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X

The first thing to note is that someone was booted that DID NOT have an intro confessional, for the third week in a row!

Darnell, Jenny, Liz, ~ Alecia, Cydney, Neal, Aubry, Michele, and Julia are left. Time will tell.

There are no people that spike way up, but there was one that fell from 2 - 0 this week, Joe. He seemed to be following orders like a good soldier this week. Alecia, Scot, Peter and Debbie got the most confessionals. They all moved either up one or down one, but Debbie jumped up 2 confessionals. She took a definitive leader role and undermined another faction this week. She did it successfully, and she swayed others that were seen talking about how non-threatening and geriatric she was.

Alecia, who managed to make it through the first two TC's as the boot target, was shown finding the idol clue, but being a total ditz....when Jason noted, you either keep up, or you get left behind, the camera showed Alecia stranded in the jungle just standing there with her hands on her hips. Surely, implying that she's left behind. I think Jason is talking the talk and is able to walk the walk, while Alecia is not.

Scot, is narrating....he knows Alecia is on the bottom but now wants him, so he has to find the idol, he helps Jason find it, and now he's pretty confident that it's in the right hands cause unless it's a pretty easy challenge, he thinks they will lose it...

Cydney, moving up to 2 confessionals. I think that both Scot and Cydney are enabling Jason...good for Jason, I don't know what that means for them...

Peter has a spike to his confessionals, from 1 in the first ep, to 2 the next, to 3 in this episode. He starts out saying that he and Liz are in control. We should have known, those are words that equate to the kiss of death. He called Joe and Debbie goats. His next conf. was after the challenge, they lost but he's okay with that and the first one on the list is Neal. He then talked about how he and Liz were superior and all the others were clay for them to mold, that needed paternal direction and he was going to tell them which way to vote. Peter was shown to be totally egotistical and narcissistic as Debbie pointed out to Aubry. Debbie did just what she said. Kept her mouth shut, appeared non-threatening, observed, and gathered intel. Then she made a plan, and worked her plan to success. Debbie went from tribe jester to tribe leader.

It will be interesting to see how Peter assimilates back into the tribe at this point.

Neal has one confessional, and again it's in the role of parent. First he spoke of the "children's" alliance, and now his confessional is about the "children" were bad so now they need to be punished. Interesting. He had to be heard from as he was the boot target.

Aubry had a nice emergence as well. Seen plotting with Debbie, and voicing to her about the "intel" she had gathered on Peter. But, Aubry suggested that she wanted Peter to go, and it was Liz that went. Debbie prevailed.

Liz gave us her assessments of her tribe mates, clearly after discussion with Peter....Debbie and Joe will be loyal soldiers, but Aubry didn't want to talk about "the game", and Neal was a smart guy and the most likely to jump at a swap or merge. She gathered intel like Debbie, but she couldn't walk the walk. Liz tells us their plan, and that she's confident. D'oh!

Over on Beauty tribe, we see that they make the decision to kill the chicken. Caleb is sensitive to the emotions of Tai, as are all the women, yet Nick is not. He tells us: Tai is too in his own mind, where heís got these feelings and emotions that he has to get out and that is not the way to play this game...my friends would compare me to a robot or, yeah, just like cold blooded, but you donít need emotions out here, you just need to seem like you have emotions.

Then, this conf is immediately followed by Anna's, noting that she doesn't trust Nick because he's difficult to talk to and he has a fake smile...Nick was shown as the only one not sensitive to Tai's emotions. I have to tie this into the Peter, who says he can read people socially and is shown to NOT be able to read them, and then Jiffy pointing out at the end of the show that Survivor is all about emotional intelligence, your ability to pick up on emotional cues, that is what gets you to the end.

Is Jiffy pointing out that neither Peter or Nick will win? But, Anna is on to the emotions and sensitivities, as are Caleb, Julia, and Michele. *Caleb and Anna had the confessionals that showed they were indeed socially aware of the emotions and sensitivities or LACK of sensitivities in others. Two key confessionals. There was one more to note. Aubry: Peter is very controlling. I just canít trust some one that is revealing themselves every day to me, by opening their mouth. He doesnít have emotional intelligence and I donít know if that is someone that I can move forward with.

Caleb, Anna, and Aubry all had the best confessionals of the episode, in my opinion, in relating to Jiffy's famous last words.

At risk for future episodes: Peter, he's peaked, will he fall ALL the way down? Same for Debbie, she's peaked now, can she maintain? At Brawn, I would say that Alecia is the most at risk. At Beauty, Nick is most at risk. But Beauty tribe is gelling, especially at challenges.... I feel like there will be a swap, switch up soon, and will the ones with the ARC's that are in full swing be the most at risk?



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03-05-16, 09:04 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Episode 3, Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 03-05-16 AT 09:05 PM (EST)

Excellent analysis. Thanks, FloPo.

Agree that Nick, Peter and Alecia appear to be the most in danger on each of the 3 tribes. But does the med evac save one of them? E.g., now Nick would not be as expendable on Beauty if Caleb is gone?

Will there even be a TC and boot this week if there's a med evac? If the med evac is not from the losing tribe, is it fair that the losers don't have to vote someone else? Or another scenario is, what if they don't even finish the challenge because of multiple medical situations? Just throwing out possible scenarios.

There would be 16 left after an evac. Would they just focus this next episode on the aftermath of the medical emergencies and then next week go to 2 tribes of 8?

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03-05-16, 10:51 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Episode 3, Confessionals"
I agree with all of your speculation, Squid. Caleb's medical evacuation is really upsetting the whole natural course of the show. If they don't finish the challenge, and at this point, with seeing how Cydney and Debbie go down, I bet that they are not likely to. So, you could be right....no TC this week. And, they have a lot of after math to deal with.

I bet they get deluged with commentary regarding the events. And, I wouldn't be surprised if they merge the 2 tribes down to two next week as you have suggested as well. A lot to digest!

But, to think there will be 2 more medical evacuations before the end of the show! A infection is one, but what else? I suppose Jason's sunburn runs amok?

If they merge down, a lot will depend on pure luck, as well.

Thanks for the comment, Squid!


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03-06-16, 03:02 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Episode 3, Confessionals"
Caleb's medical evacuation is really upsetting the whole natural course of the show.
As I bet all three of the med-evacs will.

I imagine that this season will not run similarly to any previous season's confessional counts and cues.
Yes, there will always be a difference between journey players and those with real potential, but... I also think that some of our "potentials" aren't getting the attention that some of our med-evac characters are.
For instance; Caleb, Tai and Jason. All are strong players who are not only finding idols but are influencing peoples decisions. And outside of an alternate numbers situation (swap) they seem to be quite safe in their current scenarios.
BUT...(pure speculation follows)
On Brawn, what happens to Alecia once Jason is gone due to a med-evac? (Her way looks a lot clearer for a long time)
Or on beauty, losing both Tai and Caleb due to med-evacs gives Nick a lot more time to get with a non-beauty and last even longer.
IOW, these med-evacs are good cover for those whom ACTUALLY make it to the end and will definitely alter how the show SHOULD turn out.


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03-15-16, 09:54 AM (EST)
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16. "Episode 4, Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 03-15-16 AT 12:05 PM (EST)


episode        | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | total

Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Tai Go | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11
KyleJason To | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11
Scot To | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 10
Debbie Ch | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 8
Peter Ch | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Cydney Go | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6
Anna Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 5
Neal Ch | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 5
Joe Ch | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | 4
Aubrey Ch | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 4
Nick Go | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 4
Michele Go | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 3
Julia Go | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 2


Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X


Well, I definitely agree with Tribe's sentiments. This season's confessionals will and are affected by the harsh conditions of the season. We had 10 DAWS go completely under the radar this episode. I think the beauty's got a lot of presence however on screen. It's easy to see they are a tight knit tribe that really gets along. Despite Caleb's removal, they can still work together to pull out a win.

Debbie was the star of the show. She had a confessional re: Liz removal, and Peter still here, then about her heat stroke, and finally the one about her daughters. To me, this is almost a swan song. I have to wonder if this is a redemption edit and she is out next? It crossed my mind.

Jason, after being shown to not tolerate Alecia at all in the last episode, and knocking her to the rocks to get the HII, was shown truly sympathetic and nurturing to his tribemate, Cydney, and then got a somewhat redeeming confessional when he spoke of his daughters. I think he's definitely one of the characters of the season and he's shown to have some depth. He's safe.

Peter's confessional was used as foreshadowing, perhaps. I see him as safe, at least for the next episode.

Cydney's was narrational, Alecia's was recalling her perception of Scot's comments. Tai's was commenting on the removal of Caleb and what that could mean for him.

Most at risk for me: Debbie, with a steady peak to confessionals, and with the most in this episode when most had no confessionals, she could be ripe for a fall. Scot, went from 3 to UTR: has done a lot of narrating for his tribe, now no confessionals, could it be a "hidden boot"?

*Something to note: the remaining DAWS with no intro confessional:

Aubrey, Neal, Cydney, Julia, and Michele. Will one of them be next?

Also, something to note, there were only 5 people with confessionals that weren't booted this week: Debbie, Peter, Tai, Cydney, Jason. If the winner is not one of these 5, then the winner of the season had an under the radar episode with no confessionals. Food for thought.

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03-15-16, 08:56 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Episode 4, Confessionals"
Comparing S31 with S32 with 5 players booted

Season 31

episode      | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |total

Terry T/B | . | 1 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | 6 # Ep6 Evacuated
Woo T/A | . | 1 | 1 | . | 2 | 2 | 6 # Ep6 Voted Out

Stephen B/B | . | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | 6
Monica B/B | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X
Keith B/T | . | 2 | . | . | . | 1 | 3

Eliminated

Vytas | . | 2 | 2X
Shirin | . | 2 | 4 | 6X
Pei-Gee | . | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6X
Jeff | 1 | 2 | 5$| 3 | 2 | 13X
Monica | . | 1 | . | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5X


Season 32

episode        | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | total

Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Cydney Go | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 # Only one with Confessional in Ep4
Neal Ch | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 5
Aubrey Ch | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 4
Michele Go | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 3
Julia Go | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 2

Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X

There are 5 players remaining with NO Intro Confessional.

Of the 5 Cydney is the only one that had a confessional in Ep4 and she is featured a lot in all of the promos so I think Cydney is at most risk of being voted out.

Neal and Aubry had NO confessionals in Ep4 but both had 1 Confessional in Ep3. Neal speaks in the previews and Aubry is shown reacting to the news of the tribe swap. I would say they are tied for second at most risk.

Michele and Julia have had TWO episodes in a row with NO Confessionals. Julia is seen reacting to the news of the Tribe swap. However both would be a rather hidden boot.

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03-18-16, 10:18 PM (EST)
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18. "Episode 5 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 03-19-16 AT 09:57 AM (EST)


episode        | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | total

Tai Go | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 16
Scot To | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 15
Debbie Ch | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13
KyleJason To | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 12
Peter Ch | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12
Cydney Go | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8
Anna Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Neal Ch | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 6
Aubry Ch | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5
Nick Go | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5
Michele Go | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 5
Joe Ch | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4
Julia Go | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3


Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X

This week the largest variance is with Scot. He went from under the radar to 5 confessionals. Hmmmm? He gets switched and is the sole brawn on his new tribe, but feels that the brains have already made their decision to take out a Beauty. Scot man-crushes on Tai, and persuades Tai to not play his idol to save Anna. He's also the conduit between the 2 people that he knows have idols. Tai was at the forefront as he was a boot decoy, and he had the HII. He worries that he will be going home with an HII in his pocket. His spike went from 1 to 5. Peter and Michele also have a spike of 2, 1-3 and 0 - 2, respectively. Peter's confessionals talk about how he has to pander to the others on his Brains tribe, and then his arrogance really shines because it's in the best interest of the 3 brains to stick together so he's 100% sure that he'll coast to the merge....hmmmm?

Everyone got a confessional this episode with the exception of Joe, but he's running dry. Next week, we see that he will get a confessional...could he be like Anna, and go from 0 - 3 in his boot episode?

Debbie dips from 3 to 2 confessionals. Last week she spoke how she was the mastermind, how she knew she was having heatstroke because of her ranger experience, and then she had her breakdown confessional regarding her girls. This week, she tells us her assessment of the new tribe and her offensive plan. She's got 4, and she is the mastermind and they won't see her coming.

Michele also spikes up 2 confessionals. She gives us narration regarding the 3 girls, but then how she will proceed. It's nerve racking because she has to get in an alliance. We see that this problem will be fleshed out next episode. So, I have to wonder, is it so pressing because they lose the challenge? food for thought

Jason falls one confessional and notes that he's got 2 on the R, 2 on the L, so he's good.

I can't help but think that Scot's, Tai's, and Peter's arcs are in full gear. This season there appears to be many people that are characters and get most of the confessionals: Scot, Tai, Jason, Debbie, Peter, and then there are a lot of people that just don't have much of a story (at this point): Aubry, Nick, Michele, Joe, Julia, and then there are just a few that are seen a bit more regularly: Cydney and Neal. I have to wonder where the winner will fit...

The characters with a longer term story seem to be Jason, Debbie, Cydney, Neal, Joe, and Aubry. Yet Joe and Aubrey could be the dead weight that get to the end because they are movable pieces used by the players as votes to support them. They don't really seem to have much story in the land of Soah Rong.

Most at risk: Scot, Tai, Peter, Joe.

**NOTE: Everyone I think is at risk from confessionals is on the Gondol tribe. I suppose I better pick one at risk from the other tribe....Nick. As Nick had his confessional of it's a battle of the pairs, I'm with Michele, when it comes to being manipulative I think I am the most intelligent out here.....as he said this confessional, there were little tiny ants consuming a MUCH larger centipede. Which makes me think the big man will fall at the hands of the little people in his tribe. Much like Peter, he's underestimating the others and over estimating his own abilities.

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19. "Episode 6 confessionals..."
LAST EDITED ON 03-25-16 AT 09:12 AM (EST)

First of all, it appeared from confessionals last week that all of the people at risk for boot were from one tribe, the Gondol tribe, and sure enough, that was the tribe that went to TC...an interesting observation!

This week:

episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | total

Tai Go Go | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 18
Scot To Go | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 17
Peter Ch Go | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Debbie Ch Ch | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15
KyleJason To Ch | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 12
Nick Go Ch | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 10
Aubry Ch Go | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 9
Michele Go Ch | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 9
Sydney Go Ch | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 8
Joe Ch Go | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 8
Neal Ch Ch | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 6
Julia Go To/Go | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | 6


Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna Go Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter Ch Go | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X

I thought that this was an especially exciting episode because there were so many people that began their story arc in a big way. Actually 5 out of the remaining 11 and they included; Nick, Joe, Aubry, Michele, and Julia! Since these 5 were mostly sleepers so far, I have to wonder if none of them are our winner. It makes me think that someone with a more consistent arc will win this game....Tai, Scot, Debbie, Jason perhaps. Cydney or Neal would be the long shots....?

This week I will start with those that really fell under the radar; Jason, Cydney, and Neal. Many times one that has had consistent confessionals all along and then suddenly drops to zero, could be getting set up as a surprise boot. Jason has had very consistent confessionals all along and now suddenly nothing. I do think that he's at risk because we heard Debbie identify him as her number one target, and then we see at the end of the show that Jason has villainous confessional about stuffing nerds in lockers....Neal, as a nerd, could be in trouble and at risk as well, as he could be one of those nerds that Jason wants to stuff in the locker. I also have to wonder if Neal will be one of the medivacs? I am surprised that he has now had two episodes with no confessionals and I wonder if his real story will never take off? I think that Cydney is okay. Debbie seemed to like her and she's in good stead with the brawn.

Next, we get to the people that all had big spikes to their game, some of them coming out of seemingly nowhere. We'll start with Nick, he went from 1 confessional last week to 5 this week! His story is starting off with a bang. His first confessional was astute in regard to Debbie. He told us that while he smiled on the outside, he felt like a nervous athlete ready to enter the game, and he had to make relationships. I thought he assessed Debbie well, that she liked to talk and needed to be listened too, and that he needed to be someone that she admired, like herself! Next he noted that she could have a crush on him, or else she was blowing smoke up his a$$, but he doubted that. Then, he had 2 confessionals about the impending basketball challenge, he was a point guard, but wanted to get some points, and then afterwards, he should have won it, but really Michele botched the beginning. Finally, his condescending confessional to Michele about spelling it out that Debbie was buttering her up to be nice because she was the target, and that he has to coach her and make sure she does and says the right thing, and that she doesn't know how to manipulate....

Nick did exactly what Debbie said people would do with her, he underestimated her, dismissed her. And, not only did he dismiss Debbie, he dismissed Michele as well! He's underestimating both of them. His demise is becoming clear to me after that visual last week with the colony of ants devouring the much larger centipede. I think Michele and Debbie will devour Nick as well, and I think it will be sooner rather than later.

Next we had Joe who went from 0 confessionals for the past 3 weeks to 4 confessionals this week. Wow! Joe had a very big week. First he spoke about how Peter was walking around with the others and it made him nervous as he was out to get him from the "git go". But, he was trained to deal with people like the transparent, Peter. Then, after his interrogation he notes that when you corner a liar they first start dancing around it, and that is exactly what Peter did...He noted that he's just not trustworthy and they may have to vote him out, then we saw Aubry, and ominous music played! The third confessional was after the RC, when he noted that keeping him numbers wise did make sense if he was a straight shooter but sometimes before you get in to a position, OMG, Iím in trouble, you take the trouble OUT. The last confessional was about Aubry making sense because if they cut him, they would be down in the numbers, but even keeping him short term would be difficult because he was a pain in the butt.

Joe fleshed out Peter, and showed us the struggle that he and Aubry had regarding him. As viewers, I related to them and the dilemma. Peter was threatening to flip on them all along since Liz, and he would have eventually, perhaps. As one of the brains, he could be one of the nerds that Jason wants to stuff in the locker....Joe's arc has taken off and I am skeptical as to his long term prospects. I also wonder if he could be a medical evacuation.

Michele went from 2 to 4 confessionals. Her first confessional was in relation to her screwing up the RC, but she was going back strong. Next she noted that this was not her best Survivor day as a girl who was in her top alliance was voted out and then she put her head in the chopping block with the RC debacle. She accurately assesses that her strong game to this point is teetering but she is going to try and use her social skills to start anew. (This is a very positive confessional, she's telling us her assessment, and her plan in the face of adversity). Then, Michele tells us that she realizes how Nick is talking to her and that she wouldn't tolerate in her real life, but it's his ego talking....finally, she says that she will let Nick "baby" her and be the innocent little girl like she's stupid, but she's really an independent young woman and she doesn't need to be carried, BRO!

Michele will clearly outlast Nick imo, and Nick will most likely fall when Michele does not vote the way he tells her to. Yay for Michele! I hope resolving the conflict with Nick will not be her only theme in this seasons story.

Aubry went from 1 to 4 confessionals in this episode, so her story arc took a big swing up. Aubry first talks about how the brains have the numbers and should stick together with the easy vote of Julia, but she's suspicious of Peter and Julia. Next, she comments on Peter's poor strategy for the challenge, and that they lost but it would still be best to stick with him because if they don't Tai, Scot, and Julia would have the power. Next, she wasn't surprised to hear Peter throwing Joe under the bus, no biggie, but to hear that he was trashing her too, well! That makes her say is she really going to go with someone that would blindside you, or are we going to blindside them? And, finally, she gets the final confessional before tc....what will we do? If she takes out Peter will she lose Joe's trust.

Aubry was at the center of the conflict his week, and her vote impacted the vote totally. Now she will have to manage the fallout. She could be at risk in the next few weeks, and she's also a "nerd" that could be targeted. Peter voiced to Julia that she was the most threatening between her and Joe.

Our last larger spiker is Julia. She went from 1 to 3 confessionals, a peak for her so far. She showed me that she does have game. Her first confessional was in regard to her coming to camp with reward and how much better to reenter her own camp with that reward. She noted she had to start from scratch (similar to Michele's comment), as they had just gotten Anna out. Next, she told us how Peter latched on to her to vote out Aubry, and she was down with that. Next, she cast doubt as to her chances...if she didn't do something she would be going home.....her words were backed up with her action and she was successful. Aubry changed her vote! Well done, Julia! I think Julia will be safe for now.

Tai and Scot settle down nicely after being at the center of things last week. Scot was more narrational. I see them both as safe for now, but it could all be up in the air with a merge. But, Scot and Tai have both maneuvered the switch up very well, both weeks voting the bootee out, they are on the right side of the numbers and for now that bodes well. Safe!

Debbie also is at baseline with 2 confessionals wrapped around Nick, but regardless of how she thinks of Nick or her feelings, it won't affect her strategy, and that is to make it to the merge...Safe!

A lot came out in this episode! A lot of implications for the merge, and I think you can see how things may settle next week.

First of all: Tai + Scot will most likely rejoin Jason + Cydney + Nick, and loosely affiliated with them are Michele + Julia.

Then, we have Debbie + Neal + Aubry + Joe

I predict one of the brains will go down if Michele and Julia go with Tai/Nick and the brawn. But, after that I think the girls will flip, and take out someone else from the first group. It seems that Michele and Julia will be key players in the next couple of weeks.

At high risk: Neal, Joe, Aubry
At risk: Nick, Jason
SAFE: Debbie, Michele, Julia, Cydney (Almost ALL the girls! ), Tai, Scot

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03-27-16, 01:15 PM (EST)
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20. "Previous Winners Counts"
S:22: Redemption Island ~ Boston Rob

Rob 1, 7, 4, 6, 3, 2, 5, 1 (merge) 4, 7, 3, 3, 6, 10 | 29/33-62

Rob had 62 confessionals, the closest one to him was Philip with 32, then Mike with 26.


S:23: South Pacific ~ Sophie Clark*+

Sophie (U) 2, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 1, 0 (merge) 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3 | 18 

Coach had 53, Ozzy had 33, Brandon had 27, Sophie had 18, and Albert had 17.
Sophie had 2 episodes with no confessionals.


S:24: One World ~ Kim Spradlin+


episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Kim (S,S2,T) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge), 1, 5, 5, 1, 5, 6, 6 | 39

Kim had the most confessionals, followed closely by Troyzan then Sabrina.

S25: Philippines ~ Denise*+


episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 | total
Denise (M) 2, 3, 2, 4, 2 (K) 2, 2, 2 (D) 0, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 3 | 28

Denise had the third most confessionals, Malcolm and Lisa both had more than she did.

S26: Carmon ~ Cochran+

episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 | total
Cochran (BBE) 5, 1, 1, 3, 0, 1s1, 7, 0m6, 4, 4, 4, 8, 6 | 51

Cochran had 51, then Reynold with 33, then Philip with 29, Malcolm with 28, Dawn with 23.

S27: Blood vs Water: Tyson

Tyson (GGTK)  1+0, 1, 3, 4, 1, 4, 2, 2, 5, 3, 4, 3, 2 | 35

Ciera had 30, Hayden had 27, Monica 23

S28: Cagayan: Tony


episode a+b 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 d e f g+h+i total
Tony AS$ 3+3 5 1 2 5 6 5 8 5 9 4 6 4+2+2 | 70 1st

Tony had 70, Spencer 54, Kass 50, Woo 30

S29: Blood vs Water: Natalie*+

Natalie HHH 1 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 1  3  5  8  4 | 29

Jon had 42, Keith had 32, Baylor had 30, then Natalie's 29.

S30: San Juan Del Sur ~ Mike

Mike EEM    2 2 3 3 5 2 6 6 4 8 2 4 7 | 54

Mike had 54, Rodney had 34, Carolyn 32

S31: Second Chances ~ Jeremy*

Jeremy       B/B/B | 1$| 1 | 1 | 3 | 2$| 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 27

Spencer had the most confessionals with 44, Kelly had 33, then Jeremy with 27, Abi-Maria and Tasha both with 25.

*Winners that did not have the most confessionals of their season
+Winners that had at least one under the radar episodes with NO confessionals
Every single winner had an intro confessional. Tyson did not have a confessional after his intro confessional in episode 1.

Facts:

~3 of the past 4 female winners have had less confessionals than others, did not have the MOST confessionals of their seasons (Sophie, Denise, Natalie)
~ 4 out of the past 4 female winners (100%) have all had at least one episode with NO confessionals. (Sophie, Kim, Denise, Natalie)
~4 out of the past 6 male winners have had the MOST confessionals in their season AND never had an under the radar episode with 0 confessionals(Boston Rob, Tyson, Tony, Mike)
~1 out of the past 6 male winners had one episode with 0 confessionals (Cochran)
~1 out of the past 6 male winners did not have the most confessionals in their season(Jeremy - Spencer, Kelly had more)

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03-28-16, 10:53 AM (EST)
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21. "RE: Previous Winners Counts"
LAST EDITED ON 03-28-16 AT 11:01 AM (EST)

Great research FloPo! If this season, is like the previous seasons you researched we are looking at Tai, Scot, Debbie or Jason as our winner. As long as its not Jason, I'd be satisfied! But I'm TeamTai!

ETA: But these confessional counts seem to be contrary to what the discussion in the editing thread is: that a woman will win. Interesting to see how it all plays out. Plus another medevac this episode could alter the dynamics even more than a vote-out would.

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22. "RE: Previous Winners Counts"
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-16 AT 09:02 AM (EST)

But, for me, what is interesting to note is that the women have different edits than the men. For the most part.

Robfadda was clearly the star of his season, dominantly, with the most confessionals, and he ALWAYS had confessionals. Same goes for Tyson, Tony, and Mike.

Then, contrast Robfadda and the boys to Sophie, who had the 4th most confessionals in her season (almost tied with Albert), and she also had 2 episodes where she had 0 confessionals....UTR. The same applied to Denise and Natalie, both had fewer confessionals than multiple people in their seasons and they both were UTR for 2 episodes.

Kim Spradlin was the FIRST woman to win the game that had the most confessionals in her season. But, she did have 2 episodes where she had 0 confessionals. UTR.

Cochran had the most confessionals of his season but did have one episode with 0 confessionals. Jeremy never had an episode without a confessional but wasn't the highest confessional count, he was third.

So, a lot can still happen before the end of the season. But, if a woman were to win this, it could include Debbie (may possibly have the most confessionals of the season), but it could likely include someone that is further down the list....Aubry, Michele, or Cydney. And, it's interesting to note that all of the women winners that I noted, Sophie, Kim, Denise, and Natalie ALL had 2 episodes where they didn't have a confessional. So, Aubry, Michele, Cydney, Julia could all still be considered. But, as you may have noticed, never did any of those previous winners NOT have an intro confessional. (Natalie's season they ALL had an intro confessional). If that still holds for this season then Debbie would be our only possible female winner, fwiw.


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23. "RE: Previous Winners Counts"
Yes, the intro confessional is the clincher for me. Unless the winner is so far under the radar that she gets anti-votes like Natalie White, but I still think she'd get an intro before being put on the back burner. I did go back to Samoa to see if I could find the confessional counts for Natalie but I wasn't successful. If Dabo was doing it back then, it wasn't in its own thread.
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03-29-16, 12:49 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Previous Winners Counts"
Excellent info, FloPo. This would make for a very interesting thesis paper -- how Survivor edits women vs. men.

I am curious about Natalie White and Tina too. I vaguely recall the "dog who didn't bark" discussion relating to Tina -- was that because she didn't have an Ep. 1 intro confessional or something else?

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25. "RE: Previous Winners Counts"
CtGirl: I don't think Dabo did them that far back, but I do recall Corvis doing them, he used to differentiate the confessionals into dynamic and narrational, I think as well.

Yes, Squid! Good memory, the dog that didn't bark = Tina. 0 confessionals in episode 1! At least that is what I remember as well!


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26. "RE: Previous Winners Counts"
SquidProQuo wrote:
"I am curious about Natalie White and Tina too. I vaguely recall the "dog who didn't bark" discussion relating to Tina "

From Survivor Oz

S02 Australian Outback

Tina 0/ 5/ 5/ 6/ 2/ 2/ 7/ 3/ 2/ 7/ 5/ 5/ 3/ 15 Total = 67
Colby 3/ 2/ 0/ 5/ 3/ 5/ 7/ 4/ 4/ 5/ 8/ 10/ 13/ 18 Total = 96
Keith 3/ 4/ 11/ 4/ 4/ 2/ 5/ 3/ 3/ 5/ 5/ 6/ 5/ 7 Total = 67

Note: Only Tina, Amber, and Kel had ZERO Confessionals in Episode 1


From Survivor Sucks

S19 Samoa

Natalie - 0/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 2/ 0/ 0/ 2/ 2/ 1/ 0/ 0/ 3/ 3 Total = 15
Russell H- 9/ 8/ 10/ 2/ 4/ 4/ 7/ 13/ 8/ 11/ 4/ 7/ 8/ 13 Total = 108
Mick - 2/ 3/ 3/ 4/ 2/ 2/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 1/ 3/ 1/ 4 Total = 29

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27. "RE: Previous Winners Counts"
Thank you, Sheldor. Very interesting. So we do have precedent of female winners without an Ep. 1 confessional.

Wow, no wonder many people felt that Natalie was an undeserving winner -- Russell had 7 times the confessionals that she did! And she didn't even get a confessional until Episode 4. Incredible.

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28. "RE: Previous Winners Counts"
Wow, Sheldor, thanks for adding that, I think I will make a chart of past season winners for comparison....in the off season, of course!

Natalie was invisible the entire time, but RussHell was so over the top and production was over the top for him. Ugh. But, even Mick got 14 more confessionals than Natalie did. I think that Vecepia got a pretty undeveloped edit as well...

I will have to check the edits for the other female winners: Vecepia, Jenna, Sandra's, Amber, Danni, Parvati...later!

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29. "RE: Previous Winners Counts"
LAST EDITED ON 03-29-16 AT 11:16 PM (EST)


When I want a history of confessional counts, I look at this one compiled on Sucks. It was done after SJDS but they include their archives in the next post.

http://survivorsucks.com/topic/115970/Survivor-San-Juan-Del-Sur-CONFESSIONAL-THREAD?page=1#.Vvs__Prrrfa

I want to note a discrepancy here about Kim's count: They only give her 1 episode without confessionals and that matches my editing records with 2 interviews in episode 5. Also, in her episode without confessionals, Kim had quite the presence because she first told Colton he couldn't spend all his time in their camp. Later she talked with the others about the vote and finally she gave us the quote at TC that clinched it for me when she said she was a good communicator but she didnít think there was a place for her voice yet.

It's also very interesting to note that Hatnz had more confessionals in Samoa than Colby in Australia 108 to 96.


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30. "Episode 7 Confessionals, Merge"
LAST EDITED ON 04-03-16 AT 11:21 AM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-01-16 AT 08:45†AM (EST)

episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| total

Scot To Go D | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 22
Tai Go Go D | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20
Debbie Ch Ch D | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 19
Nick Go Ch D | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 19
KyleJason To Ch D | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 17
Aubry Ch Go D | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 17
Michele Go Ch D | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12
Neal Ch Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
Sydney Go Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 9
Joe Ch Go D | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 9
Julia Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 6


Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna Go Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter Ch Go | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Neal Ch Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X

I think the last two episodes are really starting to flesh out the players. There were several with huge spikes in their confessionals this week, some it bodes well for, while others it may be ominous. It's easy to see that Nick's, Aubry's, and Michele's arcs have started in earnest. Some could be end game players, while I do think at least one may be signaling a big blindside.

Nick: Nick always seems to have a very astute confessional, like this one:

During the merge feast, before we get a little tipsy, but I am just listening left and right, seeing who is getting along and what information is out there and itís obvious the brawn are going to be arrogant like they are in charge and nobody can stop them . See Neal, the brains are not gonna work with that type of person because itís just they are the exact opposite. They want to be in the shadows. Right now, my true alliance is with michele. Weíre in a great spot within these 2 tribes but Iíve learned, slow it down, read the people. Let them keep bringing you information and then you just slice them up. Then we see Nick just chop a piece of bamboo, for emphasis. This symbolism is encouraging, I thought.

This confessional is followed by another astute one...Neal and Aubry pitched the fact that, hey, we just need 2 more of your beauty, Nick, can you get in Michele? Yeah, I can probably get in Michele. So they want it to be the brains vs the brawn. Just like I thought. It makes sense to go with the brains but if you corner yourself, if you put yourself in a position where your back is against the wall, that is not good Survivor.

Then Nick starts to tell what happened with him and the Brawn, and he quips, thanks for bringing me right into your alliance, you are such sweethearts...after he is told that Neal has the idol. We hear Scot tell him, just keep this between the three of us, not even Cydney.

Then Nick tells us that he does't like Scot and Jason's over confidence, but it's great for him because he thinks they will never see the big blindside coming. He then tells us why he is reluctant to work with Debbie, because he doesn't want anybody in the tribe to have more power than him.

Next he starts talking how this is the most important TC because after this the dominos will fall. He tells us that it's Brawn vs Brains and that he finds himself right in the middle. We are like the pretty girl deciding to go to the dance and leave with the quarterback or the valedictorian, he loves it.

He tells us that he is leaning toward going with the brawn because they will always be over confident, and that is when you do your most damage.

Up to this point, Nick is just telling us his position upon the merge, he recognizes that it is the most important time because it will determine which way the dominoes fall. So, so far, I can relate to his account. We even see he and Michele discussing what to do at this point and I felt they were definitively on the same page. Michele verbalizes to Nick that she thinks Jason has pissed so many people off that he couldn't win, and that no one would give Scot the money as he's already got money. So, all sound rationale to stick with the brawn. But, then Nick's confessionals take a turn for the worse, he becomes arrogant... he notes: It makes sense to go with Brawn right now because I do believe I can manipulate them, snaps his fingers. Just like that, and beat them in puzzles. Just like that, they are just idiots. He then talks about how he likes Aubry, but she will be going at TC. His last confessional talks about how because of some lucky medical evacuation, Aubry lives another 2 or 3 days.

I have to say that I loved the way Nick got Michele to admit what she thought first, and she noted what she thought about Jason and Scot. He got her to spell it out and he agreed. Then, when he said, so who tonight? It was Michele that mentioned Aubry.

Taken into consideration Nick's confessional spike from last week and then all of these this week, it appears to me that his arc has peaked, however, and he is very ripe for a big fall. He's cocky, thrilled to be the pretty girl (next weeks title is the brawn vs. the pretty people), and he had the best performance at a tough IC, which has got to put him on everyone's radar. No doubt about it, Nick is ripe for a big fall.

Aubry: Aubry had 8 confessionals. She was a boot decoy last week, and this week she was the prime target. She had a lot of confessionals telling us about her strategy, every man for themselves, then how elated she was to be rejoined at the merge with her brain tribe, to back again telling us how if the brains didn't get the beauty's on board they were going down, to how thrilled she was that they could now start playing, they had an idol, let's go! Finally, how her number one ally was taken away and how she didn't think she would do all this crying on Survivor, Neal left her hanging, but she has to pave her own way. Her last confessional was stellar. We saw all the ups and downs for her this episode, her "roller coaster ride", we saw her work hard to forge relationships with Nick, etc, and make plans with Neal, then hang with Debbie and Michele. We saw her working it. Then the final confessional was the icing on the cake. Aubry is a player and we see her playing! Is she a contender? I have to say this episode she was the star and I think it could possibly be her story!

Jason and Scot both had 5 confessionals this week. Scot, went from 2 to 5. He has been a solid player the entire time, has always been at the heart of the drama it seems. First with the brawn tribe, then with managing the switch so well teaming with Tai, and now with organizing the reunion. He is still giving us a lot of narration. First he can no longer trust the brains and will be picking them off one by one now. Then, he's elated at making the merge, back with his former brawn, it's like making the playoffs! Then he gets very arrogant with this confessional:

The brains are screwed we are just going to pick them off one by one till they are gone. Best case scenario is that Neal plays an idol cause heís paranoid, but Aubry goes home anyway. I feel confident in my alliance of beauty and brawn right now because everybody seems to feel very comfortable saying, why not?! Weíll just take the brains out and then once we get to 7 then we will just figure it out. Even though Jason and I already have it figured out...evil laugh....hahahahaha.

His last confessional is about Jeff arriving at camp, it's narrational, Survivor is tough. Historically we have to remember what has happened to narrators at the merge...

The cocky confessional about picking off the brains one by one and then when they get to 7, they've already figured it out underlines that the brawn DO feel over confident as Nick has observed. It's validating for Nick, so it seems that the over-confident brawn will be set up for a nice fall as well!

Jason, went from 0 confessionals last week to 5 this week. He was seemingly in "control" of the brains and calling the shots and more than one person noticed. First confessional is about knowing that Neal has the idol, he's pleased as punch right now because he holds all the power. Next, he notes the boat arriving at Chanloh beach. Next, he talks about having to get back together with the brawn at the merge and being open with Nick, as they need him. Neal is the main focus. Then he's thrilled to know that Tai has the other idol because when you put them together, super idol, and they are unstoppable. More arrogance: Beauty always goes with the jocks. Always. Itís just the way of the world. The beautyís donít date the brainiacs. They are at the dance with us and we are just shoving geeks in lockers right now. Sorry brain. Again, Jason's confessionals validate Nick's observations, so I think they are being set up for a fall as well. More mention of the super idol and being unstoppable makes me think that when Jason is voted out, that Tai will choose NOT to make that invincible super idol for Jason. Wouldn't that be fun?!

Debbie still names both Scot and Jason as the biggest targets for her. Michele also calls out Jason for being controlling and the one that thinks he's on top.

Debbie went from 2 to 4 confessionals, because we have always seen the game through her eyes the entire time....is it her story? Debbie tells us she's thrilled to make the merge, knew that she would, she loves change, she will pull them all in, they are dangling, I'll pull you in! Notes Aubry was feeling badly about Peter, worried, no need for her to feel that way, we are tight. Next, she is on the offense, and knows that she needs 6, so we see her attacking her offense with Tai, then Nick. But, Tai, Nick, and Aubry all notice it too, and don't like it. (I think are they dismissing her once again?) Her last confessional was about how tough it is, and if she loses Aubry that is game changing.

(No comment on losing Neal who she earlier said she was like salt and pepper with, among other things, lol! )

While some may see this as Debbie's down turn, I still see Debbie as solid, and safe. Despite her playing too hard and too fast, she's dismissed by all of them, with the exception of Nick, who noted, She almost takes strategy in her own hands for the brains tribe and I donít want anybody to have more power in this game than I do.


Michele went from 4 confessionals last week to 3 this week. Still a strong presence. First she was thrilled to make the merge, she was in a good position currently with her tribe but worried about what is going on at the other tribe. Next, she notes that Jason is calling the shots for everyone. It looks like brawn and beauty are working together but she is not discounting working with Brain at all. Brawn is way to controlling. This is a very wise and astute confessional. Her last confessional was about she would love to work with Aubry and Debbie, but right now she has to figure out what is best for her. Then we see her and Nick discussing their options.

Michele is playing a very good game. She's laid back assessing everything and letting others speak for her, letting others be the shield. She's strong at this point.

Tai stays solid at 2 confessionals. First one was about the numbers lining up at the merge, he has to trust someone and that is Scot, and he knows about the idol. Next was about not trusting Debbie, too aggressive, sees through her, he's not a fool.

Tai is stable.

Joe drops back down to status quo from 4 to 1 confessional: His lone confessional was in regard to Tai likes the chicken better than them. Comical. He's just fluff. With the merge, he flies well under everyone's radar, for the time being.

Cydney jumps from 0 to 1 confessional. The confessional she had was that she noticed the bulge in Neal's pocket. Is this to tell us that she's the observant one. She's being discounted...

Julia goes right back under the radar, but she almost won the IC, so that was impressive. She's safe for this week.

This week, I feel strong that a brain will NOT go home. I think the most at risk for this episode are one of the BIG boys: Nick, Jason, Scot. The bigger they are the harder they fall. Should be fun!

Everyone else: Safe

I have revisited my post again, and when I re-read it, I think I will add Debbie in the at risk category:

High risk: Nick, Scot, Jason
At risk: Debbie. She has a spike in her confessionals and she's seen overplaying aggressively, and others see it as well. Jason wants to get the Brains out 1, 2, 3. They may think that Aubry has Neal's idol, he passed her his coat, so they may aim for Debbie next.


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04-08-16, 07:51 PM (EST)
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31. "Episode 8, Jocks vs. the Pretty People"
LAST EDITED ON 04-09-16 AT 06:55 AM (EST)

episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | total

Scot To Go D | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 23
Tai Go Go D | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 21
Debbie Ch Ch D | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 21
Nick Go Ch D | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 21X
KyleJason To Ch D | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 20
Aubry Ch Go D | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 19
Michele Go Ch D | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 14
Cydney Go Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 14
Joe Ch Go D | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10
Julia Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 7


Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna Go Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter Ch Go | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Neal Ch Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
Nick Go Ch D | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 21X

Well, we suspected that the boot would be one of the big boys, and sure enough, it was! This week I have to start out by saying, HELLO Cydney! She has the top spot with the confessionals this week, and it's all about her thinking about her own game, who to trust, who has to go, and who will get her further. Take a look at her, she's a beast. We saw that she will be very hard to beat in challenges, as the only one that beat her is Tai. I have to wonder if Tai will get to the end going on a serious challenge roll. She makes the decision to get rid of one of the boys that irritates her, and makes her case to the ladies. If it doesn't work out, Oh well, I'll be the first person in the game to make a move!

Jason had 3 confessionals....first about his confidence in how the vote will go, definitely a brain, they have the numbers 7 - 3, then about his daughter and his game, and finally about Cydney freaking out over the "all girls alliance", and everyone's going to get paranoid just didn't think it would be this soon.

Since we were shown a softer side to Jason, I think his story is just about done. He's been questionable, now he was softened and next week we see the big boys hide the tools...His arc is underway...but he does still have an idol.

Michele drops down to 2 confessionals, the first one talks negatively about Jason, and the next talks about her situation with Nick, he's in her alliance and she could work with him a little longer. I have to say that I was disappointed that Nick's boot didn't come at her suggestion. I thought there was some build up for that. It was easy to see that she would turn on him down the road. If she were the winner, I think we would need to see her make more of a move than this, even the promos suggested that it was going to be her move. It wasn't, it was Cydney's move.

Debbie: She had a quiet episode with 2 confessionals. Even though she is out of the action, she is still get some confessionals which supports her as a solid character of the season. Her first confessional was about the ice cream reward and she didn't feel the least bit sorry for the others, and the second one was about low and behold, Cydney came to us and wants Nick, she hoped for Jason or Scot, but the early bird catches the worm! Additionally, Debbie is always seen being compassionate and kind to her fellow survivors. Like when they returned to camp after the challenge she congratulated Tai and Cydney, and said, and now I'm going to make you dinner! She is very kind and supportive, and I see it.

Aubry dropped from 8 to 2 confessionals. First she can sense where this is going after Neal is gone, the pretty people and the jocks aren't going to sit pretty forever....and, then a tearful Aubry cries about one bad decision after the next, but she's not giving up. Aubry still is getting the underdog, we should root for her, edit. I have to wonder, is she the winner or is she the "Spencer" of this season, as someone in the editing thread posed! I have confidence that she will be around for a while either way!

Tai dropped from 2 to 1. His confessional was about they were splitting the votes and that was a hard challenge but he earned it. Tai certainly also had a big presence at TC when he talked about the super idol, while Scot and Jason put their heads in their hands! But, Tai beat the strong Cydney....I get the feeling Tai could go home with his idol in his pocket because he will win challenges!

Scot drops down to 1 confessional, not a good sign following 5 confessionals last week. Scot's confessional was after the ice-cream reward, and was just narrational. But, he did have a strong presence...."Previously, On survivor", and "Survivor is like a box of chocolates, you never know what you are gonna get"...he also appeared very confident at TC...

Joe had one confessional, which is consistent for him and Julia had one as well, she likes Scot and likes having him on her team. Not a good sign when it now looks like the boys are going down, and Julia is getting noticed by the others as playing the middle. Julia dropped off the radar last week and comes back with one. Consistent for her edit as well.

Well, unfortunately it looks like the writing is on the wall for this season. It's now 5 girls + Joe vs. Jason, Scot, + Tai. Tai also doesn't like Jason, he voted for him last week and we saw him hanging in the canoe with the girls, he also kissed and hugged Cydney. I think Tai will see the sinking ship for what it is. I think Cydney's arc is underway. She should be okay until the big boys go.

This week I think that Julia is misdirection, but she's being set up for a boot that's soon to come.

High risk: Jason, Scot
Low risk: Julia, Cydney


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04-09-16, 02:42 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: Episode 8, Jocks vs. the Pretty People"
LAST EDITED ON 04-09-16 AT 03:32 PM (EST)

Great info, as always, Flo Po!

This next episode should be interesting since on paper we have 3 brains v 3 beauty v 3 brawn, or 5 women vs. 4 men, but we know it's a lot more complicated than that. Seems to me that Tai and Cydney are the keys to the next vote.

Michele/Julia are a pair
Jason/Scott are a pair
Aubry/Debbie/Joe are suddenly looking to be in a much better position vs. last week
It appears Tai and Cydney could be free agents
Then we have 2 idols (Tai + Jason), plus possibly a new one hidden from Neal

Cydney has 2 potential options -- she could stick with the girls, or she could try to pull a Tony V. and say to Jason and Scott, I had to get rid of Nick, he was coming between us, and go back to her original Brawn alliance.

Re Tai: According to Nick's post-game interviews, Tai voted Jason because he thought that's how the girls were voting. But he's been shown to be close to Scott too. Like Julia in the promos, is he with the girls or he is trying to play the middle? He needs to land somewhere or he's going to be in trouble, because he's already shown himself to be a challenge threat and he's definitely a lovable jury threat. The girls would be silly to keep him around for too long but will they all underestimate him?

Julia could just be trying to flirt and get intel on the idols in the promo scenes with the guys, or perhaps she and Michelle will try to play the middle girls and the guys / and the Brawn and Brains. We've seen Michelle and Julia talking about jury management and also the importance of showing their moves, so I think their best target right now is to get rid of Cydney or a Brain (Debbie or Aubry). They were worried that Jason and Scott would come after them if they made a move too early, but we also know they'd love to sit at the end with a bully guy. It's interesting that we haven't seen much of Tai and the Beauty girls lately.

Tai's idol decision seems to be the lynchpin!

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04-10-16, 02:35 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: Episode 8, Jocks vs. the Pretty People"
I know that sometimes it must feel like you are all alone in here, I've had that feeling myself in other threads and on other nights, but just wanted to let you know that I've already read your ep8 synopsis for the fourth time now and just have to say convey that you are an absolute master at this.
I've also been reading back through your thread (repeatedly) and your "At Risk" has always mentioned the next bootee. (and with only 2 people this week, it certainly looks like the brawns are finally getting their come-uppance.)


Go Cydney! Go Furioso!

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04-10-16, 09:02 AM (EST)
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34. "RE: Episode 8, Jocks vs. the Pretty People"
Thanks for the comments, Squid and Tribey! <3

Much appreciated. Corvis will always be the master though! He's the icon at the top of the confessionals thread!

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04-19-16, 09:19 AM (EST)
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35. "Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare""
episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | total

Scot To Go D | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 28
Aubry Ch Go D | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 26
Tai Go Go D | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 24
Debbie Ch Ch D | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23X
KyleJason To Ch D | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 2 | 22
Cydney Go Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 3 | 17
Michele Go Ch D | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 16
Joe Ch Go D | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 12
Julia Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 10


Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna Go Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter Ch Go | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Neal Ch Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
Nick Go Ch D | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 21X
Debbie Ch Ch D | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23X

Debbie blindsided me, but when we look back at her confessionals, we do see that she had a dip, from her greatest amount of confessionals, 4, to 2. That should have made her at risk, so I feel that I overlooked her on her edit. So, lesson learned. The numbers speak for themselves.

This week we have some shuffling going on in the ranks, and Aubry leaps up in the totals to SECOND, right behind Scot. If you look at Scot and Aubry's numbers they have a similar pattern. I believe that Scot had a more consistent pattern in the beginning of the game solely because he was in the camp that lost the challenges and went to TC more. But, if we look at both their edits, they were both under the radar at episode 4. They both started their arc in earnest in that episode, Scot with a bang with 5 confessionals, and Aubry with a blip of 1. But, from then on their patterns seem to alternate between high spikes of confessionals and low points. Up, down, up, down. Very interesting indeed. They are both narrators, we are getting their points of view.

For Scot, his 5 confessionals were: the girls pulled a good one and blindsided us basically. Clearly the status of the Brawn alliance is done. Itís now Jason and I, and Tai. Then, about the sabotage: The main reason for the sabotage is to weaken them because it could cause somebody to crack and Iím hoping it switches things up. So, itís time to make life as miserable as possible for everybody else. We took the machete, we took the ax and went into the jungle a little bit and we hid the tools. Certainly, Iím not just going to lay down and say hey! Good game! The only thing we can do right now is fight so we are going to fight and if fighting means making everybody else miserable in the process... thatís what Iím doing. So, Iím listening to all the little: ďWe got this, weíre good. Weíll just cook the coconuts the old way and weíll be fine.Ē I was mad already but that was the tipping point. I was like youíre bragging again and now Iím steaming so Iím going to do something stupid. Next, he talks after they win the reward...Julia, Tai, myself, Jason and Mark the chicken ate Chinese food and had a couple of beers. Everything was really, really good. The best part about it is getting a chance to talk to Julia and pick her brain. And, finally: If Julia decides to be our little guardian angel and hopefully she votes Cydney, it will go 4-2-3 and Cydney goes home but if Julia decides to go with the group sheís with we are pulling out all the stops, we are saying we have idols. We are pulling out everything we can think of to make sure we stick around. We donít have an option.

Here are Aubry's confessionals, she was under the radar until after the RC, when she starts b!tching about Julia: Julia and the boys won the reward challenge and as soon as I saw she was going with the boys, I knew she was trying to get a better position for herself. Sheís playing both sides but I see right through Julia. I canít trust her as far as I can throw her. Next: Julia isnít someone who wants to have alliances. She wants to ride the middle to the end. Sheís playing both sides but sometimes the guy in the middle of the road gets run over and I hope itís her. Then, Debbie does not go along with the Julia plan...There is a part of the sabotage that is certainly childish but Scot and Jason were being deliberate today. That was to throw us off the scent and to aim votes at them because they probably have idols. My gut tells me with a big blinking sign that Julia has got to go.......continued: Itís killing me that Debbie is going with her emotions right now. Scot poured water on that fire because he wanted a reaction and I want to tell Debbie: You are being emotional but you have to be logical right now. Deb is putting her foot down and Iíve gone with her on a lot of things but I believe firmly that Julia needs to go home. Then, she tells us her plan is foiled: The worst possible thing happened: Julia won and my whole plan that I was positive of went out the window. Just out the window. What do I do now? Then, her reaction: Oh no! Debbie says this is the plan right in front of Julia and that really scares me. In this scenario, the vote would be three for Scot, three for Tai and three that the boys decided but Julia has been playing double agent pretty well and if one person goes awry the whole things blows up and somebody you didnít want to go home; totally gone. We totally are hearing Aubry's thought processes, we see how she gets to the Debbie vote: Debbie isnít listening to any logic. She completely trusts Julia and this far into Survivor I need someone who is logical and I know is not going to change course. This is extremely difficult for me. I donít want Debbie to go but when people show me who they are, thatís what I am going to go with. Then, finally her thoughts prior to TC: Right now, we need to talk to Julia and thatís pretty scary because now Julia, the person I wanted out, is the person I need right now.

The story is being told by both sides, and from Aubry's and Scot's vantage points. They are key players I think. I cannot overlook the amount of confessionals that they are having, which puts them both at risk, but I have a feeling, like many previous winners, that one of these two could be our winner?

Tai is also of interest. He had 2 confessionals for several weeks, drops to one, now spikes up to 3. He's suspect for me as well. His first confessional was in regard to screwing up at TC and voting Jason and how to cover it up, but knows that within the three of them, they have 2 idols and the super idol. Tai voting for Jason tells me that he's conflicted about going with the big guys, and this episode shows him resigning himself to go with them. His second confessional is about how he is not like them, he knows this is a game and recognizes all the strategies, but he is not like that in his real life, he's not like that, but he cannot control what they do. Then finally, he resigns to go with them....I woke up in the middle of the night and I said: ďYou know what? I am committed to the boys. I was upset when Scot put out that big fire but itís necessary for me to step back from what Iím feeling compassionate. I like them but at this point, if this is war, we are going to make the other side uncomfortable. So, I decided to put out the fire. Right now, itís them or us. The evil side of me rarely come out but it does.

Tai was teetering, he voted with the girls, but it failed, so he goes back to what he perceives as the stronger side, the stacked side, the dark side, and joins them.

Julia also had a spike up from 1 confessional to 3. Noticeable for her edit. Julia has been the most hidden of all the contestants with the least amount of confessionals. So, that tells me that they are not investing as much into her story. So, I can't help but feel she is not the longest term of our contestants. Her confessionals: I decided to go with the boys because, at this point in the game, I know that pulling in Scot and pulling in Jason can be really super beneficial to me. Itís time for me to start making moves and playing my game. Then, At this point of the game, you really have to be thinking long term. I definitely have my other alliance that I feel confident in but keeping Scot and Jason to the end, they have betrayed people, they have caused chaos around camp might be a good idea because at this point anyone on the jury would not vote for them. Finally, I definitely feel that having my hand in different alliances has given me a lot of power. I have the power right now to send Debbie home and I have the power right now to send Cydney home. Jason, Scot and Tai really want Cydney gone, I consider Cydney as a huge threat because she kind of talks to everyone but Debbie is someone that I want gone eventually so itís kind of who I choose to vote for.

Julia's final confessional spells it all out to me. She feels that riding the middle of 2 alliances has given her power, aka arrogance ~ the kiss of death. We ALL know what happens to people that sit on the fence. We see in this episode that Aubry is onto her big time, and then next week we see that Scot calls her out on it as well in a promo. She's toast, imo. If not this week, then next. She's a dead DAW walking.

What's interesting to note is that while we can assume that Michele and Julia are tight, Michele is not getting pulled into this drama at all. Which, I think, is very positive for Michele.

To me, it's almost that I hear Michele's words coming out of Julia's mouth...my game, "it's time for me to start making moves"....but still Michele is kept separate from Julia.

Joe had a spike from 1 to 2 confessionals. He spoke about the girls woke up and couldn't find the tools, and him not wanting to take Debbie out because their alliance was such a viable force. Joe, just not on the same page...

Jason peaked at the merge with 5 confessionals, then dropped to 3, now dips to 2. Hmmmm? This could spell trouble, but Idk. His confessionals were about psychological warfare, keep them weak, look for cracks...and, his hopeful confessional: In todayís challenge, we won. It changes on the flip of a dime. Itís what makes this game so wonderful! Weíre back on the upswing right now. Weíre not on the top of the mountain but Juliaís got us trucking back up it. We got a prayer.

Next, Cydney. Her post merge arc started with 1, peaked last week at 5, when she got all the credit for flipping the girls vs. the boys, then she slips back down to 2. First one was about Julia, BS radar, and you can't slick a slicker in any direction, and her final one was she and Aubry are on the same page, Debbie will take us down before the boys.

Michele stays even with 2 confessionals. She tells us that she is firmly with the girls because she can't tolerate the boys behavior.

So. This week every one but Michele has some kind of risk, so I will try to break it down.

High risk: Julia, Tai. Both Julia and Tai are fence sitting. But, I think that Tai has covered it up more, and this could be because the big boys need him and his HII the most. But, we see next week that he's being influenced by Aubry as she calls him out, you are not like them.
At risk: Cydney, her peak could have been flipping to the girls. Jason: He's back on the upswing right now but he could be right back on the down swing if his girl, Julia, bites it, or if his boy, Tai, falls off the fence on the girls side. Aubry and Scot both had extreme spikes, which makes them at risk, but I have a feeling they are okay.
Very low risk: Joe
Safe: Michele

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04-19-16, 10:44 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare""
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-16 AT 10:47 AM (EST)

Thank you for doing this FP.

It's strange that we are left with 4 women who had no introduction confessionals facing 4 men who all had one.


You see Michele's separation from all the Julia drama as a positive but I see it as another gap in her story. She has a lot of internet supporters but her numbers are so low that she cannot have connected with the general audience. As for her content, a lot of it is only narration: "The guys are terrible, WE will find another way, WE will figure it out, etc..." I suppose there are some source information favoring her...

PS. Don't be too hard on yourself for missing Debbie as the boot. She only had 2 confessionals in the previous episode but she had other episodes with 2 and she never had more than 4 so it looked very consistent and I certainly misjudged her edit even more that you!


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04-19-16, 02:24 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare""
You see Michele's separation from all the Julia drama as a positive but I see it as another gap in her story.

Always thrilled to get your 2 cents, michel! I have not followed Sucks at all this season, happily, so I don't know if they are Michele's supporters or no, I don't think the RHAP community is buying her koolaid, so?

My biggest observation is that Michele and Julia appeared to be tight. I hear a lot of the same words coming out of Julia's mouth, that have already come out of Michele's, so I assume that they are both on the same page. But, the editing is separating the two. We hear Aubry start complaining about Julia and Cydney is agreeing with her. I see it as they are all on board with her fence sitting, and I see that as a very negative, so the fact that Michele is clearly separated from Julia by the editing, makes me think if's it's negative for Julia, it must be a positive for Michele?

I dunno. Michele is being manipulated by the editing more than anyone, I think, and I don't know why? She agreed that the big boys would be good to take to the end, because of their nastiness, but now we see her going with Aubry and company. They are either separating her to be a loyal girl with Aubry and company, OR, she's going to surprise everyone and go with Julia and the boys? It's a coin flip, but from what they show me, I see her as staying with the girls....fwiw.


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04-19-16, 06:39 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare""
Many comments in response to my blog at RHAP are saying Michele is going to win.

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04-19-16, 09:14 PM (EST)
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39. "RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare""
"It's strange that we are left with 4 women who had no introduction confessionals facing 4 men who all had one."

That's an interesting observation!

In hindsight EVERY Man got an Intro Confessional except
1) First Boot Darnell
2) Medivac Neal
Seems logical go leave them out

And ONLY 2 Women got an Intro Confessional
1) Beauty Anna
2) Brains Debbie

Debbie was a HUGE character and well Anna was a Beauty and talked about using her Boobs so it is not surprising those 2 Women received an Intro Confessional

So really the Intro Confessionals were really all about the Men (Caleb, Peter, Nick, Joe, Kyle, Scot, Tai)

Which is also not surprising considering Jeff is an Executive Producer...

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04-19-16, 10:53 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare""
"It's strange that we are left with 4 women who had no introduction confessionals facing 4 men who all had one."

Well, we all know that what holds for the guys, doesn't hold for the women when it comes to editing the characters. Many times the female winners do NOT get intro confessionals, and Tina, winner of Australia, didn't get a confessional in the entire first episode.

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04-20-16, 11:31 AM (EST)
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41. "RE: Ep 9, "Psychological Warfare""
I wouldn't count Tina because the purpose was exactly to hide the winner after giving Hatch the winning confessional right off the bat. It was a trick and Burnett admitted to it.

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42. "Ep 10 Confessionals..."
episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | | 10| total

Scot To Go D | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 33X
Aubry Ch Go D | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 31
Tai Go Go D | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 31
KyleJason To Ch D | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 22
Cydney Go Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18
Michele Go Ch D | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18
Joe Ch Go D | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | 12
Julia Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12


Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna Go Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter Ch Go | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Neal Ch Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
Nick Go Ch D | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 21X
Debbie Ch Ch D | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23X
Scot To Go D | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 33X

Tai jumps up in his confessionals...He peaked with 5 in episode 5, which was the first tribe shuffle and he had bonded with Scot and ended up voting out Anna. Now, he's getting ready to blindside his alliance mate, Scot, and jump to Aubry and company, and he still has the HI and the advantage. This could be the peak of his arc, making the big move to take out Scot, and get rid of the other HI as well as the risk of the super idol. He spoke about mending relationships, but clearly his brethren didn't want to do it. Then he spoke of the powers of the extra vote, a rich man's problem, but has to trust himself otherwise he may go home with them in his pocket(AGAIN he mentions going home with the HI). Next, he talks of his struggles with people taking advantage of other people, heart says go with Aubry, brain says stick with the boys. We see his struggle. Next, he notes how excited he is to be with Aubry, and that she'll be a good addition to the alliance, but then he tells Scot and Jason about it and they cut him off, dismiss him, and tell him that Aubry is next. Slap in the face to Tai who notes that he has no say in the alliance and he's not part of the discussion. He recognizes that the 2 big boys are calling the shots and he is on the bottom. (RIPE for a jump!). Tai gets one of the last confessionals and notes that he wants to work with Aubry, but brain still thinks boys would be a good way to go, if F3, he thinks he has a chance to beat them. And, his last confessional before TC is that he has to do what's best for him and commit to it because after this vote there is no turning back.

Aubry and Scot both had 5 confessionals. It is the end of the line for Scot who did a lot of narrating through the show. He and Aubry had the most last week, and I thought that one of them could be the winner, apparently it won't be Scot! Scot's confessionals this time were celebratory, talked smack about Cydney, and then Aubry, and overall over-confident.

Aubry goes down from 7 to 5 this week. Her first confessional was telling us what Scot wants, and no way she will work with him but it's a big scary move. Next, she acknowledges that Julia is a clever player, but she's super shady and Michele cannot see through it but she thinks Julia is out to take out the girls. Next, she goes out on a limb but wants Tai to know that Julia is gunning for him and that she is a valid alternative to working with Jason, Scot and Julia. She feels that the boys are in a very strong position but thinks that she has a connection with Tai...and finally, this is a huge vote and Tai holds all the keys.

Aubry really lets us in on her thoughts and the execution of her plans.

Michele has 2 confessionals, which has been her status quo the past few weeks. The first one is gloating about beating the boys to eat the meal. Then she says that it is a little nerve-racking that Tai won the advantage. If she had felt like she needed the advantage then she should have played for it! Then, she tells us her priority: The three guys have two idols. That is a huge problem and we got to flush out the idols or we got to get rid of the guys, one or the other. This sounds just like Julia's priority.

Julia: She goes from 3 to 2 confessionals this week: Her first confessional was in regard to being on a roller coaster ride, first she has power then she doesn't, then she does. Winning the love letters gives her what she needs to make a play, and that she is hear to win. (gaining courage to make a move). Her last confessional was how stoked she was cause the girls and her were going to force votes on Tai to flush his idols, the super idol, OR to get Cydney out. Either way she was thrilled to find out that she would be Jason and Scots number 3! Feeling stoked and confident is never a good thing in Survivor-land.

Cydney goes from 3 to 1. A notable drop. She notes that the guys are just too powerful with the idols and that she wants to throw votes on Scot to flush them...

Joe: Drops to under the radar, falls from 2 to zilch.

High Risk: Tai, Cydney, Julia. Tai has a huge spike that puts him in the cross hairs. We have constantly heard the entire season that he is afraid of going home with the idols, and now the advantage. Now, he can't trust anyone and we know that at least Julia and Jason are gunning for him. I feel that something is giving this next ep with Tai. He will either get voted out, OR, he will foil the plot to get him with using his advantages and save himself.

Cydney: She is the old target of Jason. But, Cydney looks like she's going on reward with Michele. She could jump to Michele and Julia along with Jason to get Tai out, and try to flush those idols out once and for all. This most certainly would cause a "fracture" in her alliance with Aubry, Joe, Tai. Also, it fits with Jiffy's tease, loyalty, looking for someone to trust even if for just one vote. Sydney could be the one looking to trust for just one vote? Hmmmmm?

Julia: Her arc looks like it's dwindling, and now she is confident, but we saw her face at TC when Scot went home...she's hitting another low on the roller coaster, so will this next episode put her back on top only to CRASH down and out? I have to say that I was leaning Julia all week, but now that I examine the confessional counts, I am not so sure it will be her...

At risk: Joe and Aubry: I think Joe has essentially no story, I don't see him going this episode, and Aubry has less confessionals than last week, so just to cross my T's and dot my I's, I put her here. I don't see her going either.

Safe: Michele: she is status quo for this week so I would be surprised if she were the boot, but mark my words, I think she will come into point blank range with this coming episode. Jason: He's also status quo, and looks stable!

I just want to remind people that the confessionals are really a study in historical trends, so really anything could happen!

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04-27-16, 07:30 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Ep 10 Confessionals..."
LAST EDITED ON 04-27-16 AT 09:42 PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-27-16 AT 09:41†PM (EST)

LAST EDITED ON 04-27-16 AT 09:37†PM (EST)

UPDATE: I had inverted Aubry/Tai on the Sucks count! Fixed

THANKS so much FlowerPower for ALL your hard work and for also adding commentary on Confessional Counts!

I know everyone counts confessional differently. I thought it might be useful to compare Blows with Sucks Confessional Count. Placement is almost the same but obviously Sucks count is quite a bit higher.

episode             | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 |10 | total
Blows
Aubry Ch Go D | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 31 Aubry
Tai Go Go D | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 31 Tai
KyleJason To Ch D | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 22 Jason
Cydney Go Ch D | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 Cydney
Michele Go Ch D | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 18 Michele
Joe Ch Go D | 2 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | 12 Joe
Julia Go To/Go D | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12 Julia

Sucks
Tai Go Go D | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 |10 | 42 Tai
Aubry Ch Go D | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 8 | 2 |10 | 5 | 35 Aubry

KyleJason To Ch D | 5 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 32 Jason
Michele Go Ch D | 2 | 2 | . | . | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 23 Michele
Cydney Go Ch D | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | . | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 21 Cydney
Julia Go To/Go D | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 Julia
Joe Ch Go D | 2 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | 12 Joe


http://survivorsucks.yuku.com/topic/126057/Survivor-Kah-Rng-CONFESSIONAL-COUNT#.VyFqZvkrJhE
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04-27-16, 07:48 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: Ep 10 Confessionals..."
thanks, so much Sheldor for your kind words, AND, for ALL that you do here as well. ALWAYS APPRECIATED!

Wow, what a HUGE discrepancy! It can't be right because having a confessional is easy to see, and they have 0's where I have counts and vice versa! Wow! I do not count extra confessionals if the same person has 2 in a row, but we see what is going on in the action, and it's reinforcing what the confessional is about.

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04-27-16, 09:33 PM (EST)
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46. "RE: Ep 10 Confessionals..."
FP, you know how they are at Sucks. That guy must follow what they call the 10 second rule. They count 2 confessionals if the action shown between 2 segments lasts more than 10 seconds.

I prefer your way but I think the best method would be something similar to what Corvis used to do: Differentiate confessionals by giving them value. Each player would have two columns in every episode: Short confessionals that mostly narrate the events would all go in one while elaborate confessionals that are shown in segments describing strategy and tribal dynamics would go in the other.

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04-27-16, 09:23 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: Ep 10 Confessionals..."
Sheldor, I think you must have inverted Tai with Aubry. Tai tried to kiss Caleb and went to look for the idol in episode 2 so he couldn't have a zero there.


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04-27-16, 09:38 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Ep 10 Confessionals..."
OOPS! You are right I inverted Tai with Aubry! FIXED!
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48. "Ep 11 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 05-06-16 AT 07:19 AM (EST)

episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | 10| 11| total

Aubry Ch Go D | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 35
Tai Go Go D | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 34
KyleJason To Ch D | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 29
Michele Go Ch D | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 24
Cydney Go Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 22
Julia Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15X
Joe Ch Go D | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | 12

Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna Go Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter Ch Go | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Neal Ch Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
Nick Go Ch D | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 21X
Debbie Ch Ch D | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23X
Scot To Go D | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 33X
Julia Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15X

This episode had a lot of players with shifts in their confessionals. The largest shift was with Jason who spiked 5 confessionals moving from 2 to 7. He was the one blindsided and his first couple of confessionals tell us about it. He lost not only his idol but his partner in the game and notes that from here on out he will have to scramble.He notes he can't let them see me angry....while Tai appears to have a "big ole heart", he sure flips a lot. Then he tells us that he will do the same to him, and he'll deserve it. He won't give up, he'll do it for his family, he'll find a crack.I'm at the bottom but there is a way, there is always a way, but need to find it in time. Then, he tells us that he has a plan for Tai, with Michele and Julia but he needs Cydney, I was once tight with her, we need her or I am screwed. Need the numbers to get Tai, doesn't mean he's going, could play his idol and one of us goes home.

Jason is at the heart of the story because he was the one that was the most blindsided and lost the most. Clearly, a turning point in his game. But, I have to say that I looked at the content of his confessionals quite positively. He's not giving up, his purpose is still strong, and he'll find the crack and make the plan. He was very calculating and composed. Well played.

The next largest spike was from Michele. She went from 2 to 6. Her first 3 confessionals were after the RC, she told us her plan to get back in touch with her alliance, make them trust her, and to reconnect. She does it by being happy, humble and staying sane....she's now reintegrated. The next 2 confessionals were about her feelings when her alliance wanted to vote Julia out, and then her relief when she and Cydney were going to vote Tai instead...it was killing her. The last confessional of the episode before TC was hers: Alot is riding on tonights TC with me, I have a decision to make regarding Julia and my alliance, I donít want to backstab either, Iím struggling, all I can do is do whatís best for me and play my game.

All I can say is that we will see if what she ended up doing was best for her game play in the next episode. Frankly, I think she's doomed. When I review her voting record I see that she's voted out her closest ally twice! Nick and then Julia. Hmmmm?

Cydney also has a spike from 1 to 4, which is indeed a red flag. Her first confessional is narrational regarding the RC..."I was just cheesing". Next was narrational as well, we need to keep our relationship with Tai strong right now, but later we can use Michele. Her third confessional is a bit arrogant, at the end of the day I put myself in a great position, options open, if I have to go against my alliance to get Tai out, I will if it's best for my game, not a we game, a me game, a win-win for me." Her last confessional: Michele and I have options, we can either blindside Tai, or Julia.

Cydney indeed has options at this point, but time is running out, and soon she will have no options left. We see that she is calling out Aubry in the next episode, would you vote with them or with me? Cydney may have just missed her window of opportunity? Like Michele, we will see.

Tai had the largest drop down in confessionals going from 7 to 3. He first tells us about the smallest guy taking out the biggest guy, this is him taking control of his game. Next, is the empathetic confessional about betraying Jason and wanting to make amends with him. We see him do it, but we see Jason handle extremely well while Tai, not so much. His last confessional talks about hearing his name and not being comfortable with Michele and Cydney and that he will play his advantage or HI and not go home with them in his pocket.

As long as Tai is in the game with the HI and the advantage he will have a target on his back. He is the shield that most will want to get rid of. He's clearly at risk.

Aubry dropped from 5 - 4. Her first confessionals were narrational, yay, we got out Scot now it will be easy to get rid of Jason, and wow, I'm in a helicopter. More narration: Michele has proved herself. Her next confessional was the dynamic one: Since the reward itís 4 plus Michele. It seems like a super easy vote right now to get out Jason, but I am not sure that that is the best move right now. Jason is a physical threat but he's also a very polarizing character, there will be people that love him and people that hate him on the jury, so I donít think he can win. Julia, otoh is good at challenges, sheís proven herself to be strategic enough to be able to dodge and manuever to keep herself in this game. Julia needs to go.

Clearly, steering the vote to Julia is engineered by Aubry.

Joe: Status quo with 0 confessionals.

High Risk: Jason, strictly because he had such a large spike I have to put him at high risk. Frankly, I look at this as the start of his final arc and personally, I think he will be safe for the next episode.
Michele: Michele has the highest spike ever with 6 confessionals. She made a grave error in telling Jiffy that she memorized all of the symbols and numbers when winning the IC. She was unable to make the big move last week to disarm Tai, and turned instead on her closest ally in the game. We also know that Tai thinks she is the biggest threat. Very high risk indeed.
Cydney: She had the chance to make a move as well but didn't. Now her time to make that move is running out. We see her pressing Aubry to make a decision on who to go with. Is she pressing a little too hard? If she doesn't win immunity, she is in trouble, her game play is getting noticed.
Tai: Tai trusts Aubry now, but as long as he has the HI and the advantage he will be the biggest target in the game. If he doesn't use either of his advantages this week, he'll be toast.

Safe: Aubry and Joe. Aubry is at a pivotal point. She is the one that will direct the boot again, perhaps, but she's torn. So, the question remains, what will Aubry do? Joe...of course he will do what ever Aubry does and apparently, he's not in the cross hairs this week as long as there are "real" players to consider.

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05-04-16, 10:16 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: Ep 11 Confessionals"
Nice rundown, FP. That's the way I see it also. I wonder how Tai will react if he learns that Cyd is targeting him? Will he still want to go against Michele or will he change target? I think Aubry sticks with Tai and his "idols".


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50. "RE: Ep 11 Confessionals"
I agree, michel. I think Aubry will vote with Tai, but the question is, will she tell him to play his idol this time?

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51. "RE: Ep 11 Confessionals"
I agree, michel. I think Aubry will vote with Tai, but the question is, will she tell him to play his idol this time?

I believe Aubry will tell Tai to play his idol, but he'll use his advantage instead. At 6, it makes more sense to break a potential 3-3 tie with the advantage. An extra vote at 5 doesn't really help because if the others are 4-1 against him, the extra vote can't save him. If it's 3-2 against, the best he could do is force a tie. If he's in the majority, his extra vote doesn't matter. So his best option would be playing his advantage this time and II in the next TC.

Michelle's comments about memorizing shows her fatal flaw - she has a huge target on her back since she had no trouble with a mental challenge. She's now a threat.

Aubry's worried that staying with Tai instead of Michelle could hurt her with jury votes. As for Cydney, if Jason doesn't have immunity, she'll want to target the IC threat, while "them" (Jason and Michelle) could be targeting Tai the idol threat.

And thinking ahead...Tai will go home with an idol in his pocket, but it won't be the disaster he thought it would be. Given Joe's invisibility in this game and lack of confessions, I think he's going to leave the game. There won't be an F5 TC, which would have been Tai's last chance to use the idol.

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05-07-16, 07:58 AM (EST)
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52. "RE: Ep 11 Confessionals"
LAST EDITED ON 05-07-16 AT 07:59 AM (EST)

High Risk: Jason, strictly because he had such a large spike I have to put him at high risk. Frankly, I look at this as the start of his final arc and personally, I think he will be safe for the next episode.

Just goes to show you that the confessional spikes, either upward or downward do spell trouble!!! You cannot ignore the surges! Jason had the largest spike which put him at the top of those at high risk. My comments regarding my personal thoughts were OFF! So, look at the numbers more than what I may personally think....ugh! I think the editors did a great job with Jason, however. His response to failing to save Julia while targeting Tai was very positive, which is what led me to think he had a shot.

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53. "Episode 2 confessionals..."
LAST EDITED ON 05-09-16 AT 05:39 PM (EST)

Episode 12 Confessionals

episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | 10| 11| 12| total

Tai Go Go D | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 40
Aubry Ch Go D | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 38
KyleJason To Ch D | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 34X
Michele Go Ch D | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 28
Cydney Go Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 22
Joe Ch Go D | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | 2 | 14

Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna Go Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter Ch Go | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Neal Ch Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
Nick Go Ch D | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 21X
Debbie Ch Ch D | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23X
Scot To Go D | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 33X
Julia Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15X
KyleJason To Ch D | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 34X

Okay, this is the week we go from 6 to 5. I can pretty much guarantee that Joe will not win this game. But, his appearance in confessionals this week from zilch to 2 puts him at serious risk. Joe first talks about Jason, if he doesn't get his way he's vulgar and he thinks people see through him, and the final one was narrational in regard to performing like a 6 month old, what are you gonna do?

Tai has a spike from 3 to 6, which I think could be trouble for him. He played his advantage and exposed himself to the others, he now thinks that Aubry "pulled a fast one". He's got to do some damage control because as it stands right now, he looks to be on the outside of the group of 4 looking in.

Tai's confessionals tell us that he is with Aubry and Joe, and then Cydney, they are a tight 4, so it should be Jason and Michele that are the next to go. Then, the grub confessional, which just let Jason comment on how he was pretty sure that Mark was going to see day 39. Next, he had the reward confessional but he was worried about the people remaining at camp, worried that they would fall apart. Next, was a narrational confessional about the reward leading to his next confessional about how Michele is the bigger threat, she has no enemies with the jury. Then, he has a dynamic confessional about trying to sell the group on Michele, but she joined them, most likely it will be her but he's going to play his advantage, extra vote.

Michele and Cydney both fall two confessionals. Michele's final arc began last episode and now simmers down 2. Her confessionals were: First: Jason hit her and Cydney hard, but she needed to prove to her alliance that she was still with them and no better way to do that than to vote out her best friend in the game, Julia. Second: Narrational about me, Jason, and Cydney went to the wildlife refuge....beautiful spread...Third: She thinks Jason wants to come off a little softer, but she remembers the incident with the machete and the ax, and so the best case scenario is to vote Jason out. Finally, little did she know that Tai was trying to get them to vote for her, she may not have gotten enough time to talk to them all so at TC she's going to do damage control and try to get them to vote Jason.

As the current boot decoy, Michele is still at the crux of the episode, and she has a strong positive edit where we see her work hard at TC to sway the jury against Tai. And, she was successful. But, she has Cydney to thank, as it was Cydney that went to bat for her with the others as well, especially with Aubry.

Cydney drops from 4 to 2 confessionals. Her first confessional is about how she will not be told what to do, and that is what happened with the brawn tribe, and now Joe is doing it, then the final confessional is how Tai is now trying to boss people and intimidate them into voting for Michele, but she's not having it. Then we see her go to first Michele and tell her what is going on then she goes to Aubry and explains her thoughts. And, we see how the vote went down, Cydney connected, while next week we hear Tai say, "Aubry pulled a fast one".

Aubry settles down from 4 to 3 confessionals: Her first confessional is about Tai having an advantage and an HII, and that she needs to keep him on her side, the next is narrational about how Cydney is not going to be bossed around by Joe, and it's the last thing that she needs cause she could blow up the game. Then, her last confessional was dynamic as it was regarding Tai deciding that he was getting rid of Michele, and that she kind of agrees cause she's pissed nobody off and everyone gets along with her and that Cydney thinks it's the wrong decision and she isn't going to be told what to do, but Tai is a part of her core alliance, cries, this is a tough one and she will make a game time decision.

At High Risk: Joe is at high risk, going from under the radar to 2 confessionals. He's shown to be bossy. We are getting to the end of this story and the alliance is getting put to the test. Cydney is calling out Joe to Aubry for being bossy, and then later she's calling out Tai to Aubry. Aubry succumbed to her and Michele. That could spell real trouble for first Joe, as Tai still has the HI to play.

At Risk; Michele and Cydney: Both dropped 2 confessionals. Cydney seems to be the bigger player of the two, but is she becoming obvious to Aubry? We saw that Aubry did agree with Tai that Michele was indeed the bigger threat yet she yielded to Cydney. Could spell trouble for Cydney. Michele was labeled by Aubry as being the bigger threat, will Tai work with Aubry to get Michele out?

Safe: Aubry. As long as Tai is in the game with his HI, there is a bigger target than Aubry.
Tai: Tai was on the outside of the alliance but trying to wield his advantage and HI to steer the vote, but failed. The tight 4 of Aubry, Joe, Cydney, and Michele stuck together leaving him on the outside looking in. We see that when he and Michele are left back at camp they are plotting to vote someone out using Tai's idol. But, will it work? He doesn't want to go home with it in his pocket so most likely he will play it, and because of this he's SAFE. He's the biggest threat left in the game as long as he has his HI. But, can't forget that Aubry really did agree with him last time, Michele is the bigger threat, could Aubry work to gain Tai's favor again?

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05-09-16, 04:28 PM (EST)
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54. "RE: Episode 2 confessionals..."
Great work, FP.

(There is an addition error in Cydney's total which should be at 24, not 22.)

I think you have to put Tai safe for this week since it's the last time to play his idol while Aubry has to be considered somewhat at risk especially if either Tai or Michele wins IC. Tai could give his HII to his new ally Michele if he has the necklace.

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05-09-16, 05:34 PM (EST)
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55. "RE: Episode 2 confessionals..."
Yes, I think that was a brain freeze. Thanks!
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05-09-16, 09:32 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Episode 12 confessionals..."
Also your subject is "Episode 2 confessionals" instead of 12.

It's obvious that if a man wins it will be Tai and he will most likely have the Most Confessionals of the season (typical for a male winner).

There have been 13 Female Winners.
7 Female Winners had the Most Confessionals for the Women
6 Females Winners were NOT the Top Confessionals for Women

So let's examine those 6 Female Winners who did NOT have the most Confessionals among the women.

S04 Vecepia was third behind Kathy and Neleh
S11 Danni was second behind Stephenie
S16 Parvati was second behind Cirie
S19 Natalie was third behind Shambo and Laura
S20 Sandra was second behind Parvati
S25 Denise was second behind Lisa

These 6 female winners played either a strong physical or strong social game or both, they were developed as a character but they were just overshadowed by a women who was a bigger character and gave better confessionals.

Using Sucks or Blows Confessional Count the players are in the same ranking just different numbers:

Sucks / Blows Confessional Counts
54 / 40 = Tai
44 / 38 = Aubry
33 / 28 = Michele
27 / 24 = Cydney
16 / 14 = Joe

If a woman wins it would most likely be Aubry with the easily the most confessionals among the women.

Cydney being 3rd in confessionals would be a winner like Vecepia or Natalie White.

Michele being 2nd in confessionals would be a winner like Danni, Parvati, Sandra or Denise but Michele just doesn't seem to be as strong a player as those 4 women who were out spoken by bigger characters: Stephenie, Cirie, Parvati, and Lisa.

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05-11-16, 06:27 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: Episode 2 confessionals..."
Hey if Joe does get medically evacuated tonight the Final 4 will have ONE person with an Intro Confessional (Tai) and all 3 Women did NOT have an Intro Confessional!
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05-17-16, 12:21 PM (EST)
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58. "Episode 13 Confessionals, Pre-Finale"
episode             | I | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7M| 8 | 9 | 10| 11| 12| 13| total

Tai Go Go D | 1 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 10| 50
Aubry Ch Go D | . | 3 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 46
Michele Go Ch D | . | 2 | 1 | . | . | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 36
Cydney Go Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 26
Joe Ch Go D | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | 2 | 5 | 19X

Eliminated

Darnell To | . | 2 | 2X
Jennifer To | . | 2 | 5 | 7X
Liz Ch | . | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9X
Caleb Go | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | . | 6X
Alecia To | . | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12X
Anna Go Go | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | . | 3 | 8X
Peter Ch Go | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16X
Neal Ch Ch D | . | 3 | 1 | 1 | . | 1 | . | 5 | 11X
Nick Go Ch D | 1 | 2 | . | 1 | . | 1 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 21X
Debbie Ch Ch D | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 23X
Scot To Go D | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | . | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 33X
Julia Go To/Go D | . | 1 | 1 | . | . | 1 | 3 | . | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15X
KyleJason To Ch D | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | . | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 34X
Joe Ch Go D | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | . | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | . | . | 2 | 5 | 19X

Okay, the confessionals are done....layed out in front of us for us to choose who will end up where! In the last episode, Tai had the biggest flux moving up from 3 to 6. This week, he PEAKS at 10 confessionals. I would say that this a very ominous sign for Tai, who the promo reminds us, is now vulnerable with no advantage or HI in the game anymore. His confessionals start with him pondering what had happened, he thought everyone was on the same page, and then he was blindsided and his extra vote was wasted. He's out of the circle which is the worst thing possible. He's most upset about Aubry, the one he trusted the most. He feels alone, and doesn't know where he will go from here. Then, he's notes that Joe won and took Aubry and Cydney, they are the F3 that they are thinking about. Now, he's stuck with Michele, so the only thing he can do is air it out with her. They started out together, maybe he missed something with her. he feels completely blindsided by Aubry, so if he worked with Michele, Aubry would never see that coming.

Then, Tai has a huge confessional complete with dramatic and sensitive music...Survivor has to be the hardest game I have ever done, not the surviving part, Iíve actually enjoyed all of that, but the idea of trust, and not trusting people. It take a toll on my emotion and it is hands down the hardest thing I have ever done in my life!

With the last confessional, I seriously got a feeling that Tai is our journey player. This was a journey for him trying to figure out who to trust and who he cannot trust, and navigating a game where he can't quite fully trust his heart. What's interesting is the next confessional:

Aubry really poured her heart to me, and say, you know we need each other, and that made me feel really comfortable and relieved of this burden, it really take a toll on my emotion. And, I just break down a little bit. So far, I play the game with my heart so it feels good that Aubry is on my side. And, I have a tender spot for her from the beginning.

Once again, Tai is playing or choosing to play the game with his heart, and I just can't help but think, he'll be blindsided once again?

Next, his final confessional is about Joe going home and he's very, very nervous.

Well, we know that Joe does go home, so where does that leave Tai, the one that plays with his heart and not his brain? Will he be beaten by "the brain"? Food for thought.

Interesting that the two players that are now trying to "woo" Tai, or to use him to better their own games both have a spike up to 8 confessionals. Aubry goes up 5 confessionals. Her story takes us from leaving Tai out of the loop, and she's not sure that she will be able to work with him moving forward, everything is up in the air and she has to explore her other options. Next, her confessionals occur during the reward and are narrative till Joe starts talking about how Aubry is the only threat right now, which makes Aubry feel that Cydney is the threat and that she needs Tai, he's the better option for her.

When she returns to camp she reiterates that Cydney is the biggest threat and she needs to make Tai understand, at the end of the day Joe will be with her. The only way for them to get to F3 is if Tai goes with her and Joe. She has 3 to 2, she's got fingers crossed that Tai will go with her. Then, her confessionals are about Joe, she's worried about him, he's her anchor for this whole game, he needs to be okay! Finally, it's like de-ja-vu all over again, first Neal now Joe. She had a good plan and now everything is ruined, she doesn't know what the heck is going on, anything is possible.

Once again, the up and down story line for Aubry continues. She started in episode one on shaky ground, she was over-heated, dehydrated, and had anxiety. She over came that to win the IC for them. Then, she narrowly escapes boot, because her BFF and closest alliance mate, Neal is medivaced from the game. She hits rock bottom, but she has to forge her way through. Now, she's on another low point in the game, her solid 2nd, is medivaced...deja-vu! Both peaks to Aubry's confessionals were at 8 confessionals, and occurred when her allies, Neal and Joe, are medivaced. I would say that Aubry ending here on a down note, is setting her up to end the game on a high note!

Michele, who was the one that Tai chose to cast his 2 votes on also had 8 confessionals, up from 4 last week. Her confessionals start with narration: Tai put both his votes on me, but Cydney saved me, but I could be next. Next, after the RC, she notes that Joe, Aubry, and Cydney could be F3, and she has to take some risks and try to change the pecking order. Next, she recognizes that you base your relationships with people on the chemistry you have with them, but she recognizes that she and Tai are very different people with different perceptions of the game. Next, after they get together, she muses, who would ever suspect that Tai and I could share a bonding massage and dinner date! Then she notes that she is reluctant to work with Tai, but recognizes that they are on the outs, but it would be so great to work with him because no one on "their" side thinks that she and Tai could ever work anything out. Then, she muses that she and Cydney are tight, and then with she and Tai, they can kind of pick who they want out next, Joe or Aubry...then, she comments about Joe, at F5 that is the last thing you want to see happen, but if Joe goes that would be good for her game! Next, it's narrative with commenting on how it's getting worse and worst for Joe, he's likely masking his pain.

This episode is building for Michele. At the last episode, she could have been blindsided, which makes her feel that she is on the "outs". So, she works with the options she has and gets a plan with Tai. She's pretty much told us her pecking order....she would rather take out Joe and Aubry, and be in the F3 with Cydney and Tai. So, Joe leaving works for her...Michele is in game mode, and is building pathways to the end. I looked at this episode as a positive for Michele.

Cydney moves up from 2 to 4 confessionals. With the end game looming, it is not a good sign to me that Cydney is still having less confessionals. She had the least amount of confessionals out of 5 people. At the reward her first confessional is narrational, about Joe eating and eating. Then, a dynamic one, noting that the 3 there could potentially be the F3, but she is trying to downplay herself as a threat, so she's just nodding, smiling, and going along for the ride, and she'll be happy to win the million when she gets there....million dollar quote?

Next, she talks about that currently she's with Aubry and Joe, but sees Tai and Aubry returning from getting water and her radar is up, she's good at reading things, and she thought Tai was the main person they want to get out, so it didn't sit well, she's suspect. She then talks about Michele, how trustworthy she's been and would rather have her around to strategize with...she wants to keep it under wraps, (from Aubry and Joe), hoping she doesn't screw herself and betters her game. This confessional is preceded by and ends with a picture of a slithering snake. So, this makes me think that Cydney, while giving the impression she's with Aubry/Joe, is really with Michele, and will screw over Aubry (now that we know Joe is already gone).

She told us she's suspect of Aubry going with Tai, the person she thought they were going to vote out next, and then we see her with Michele...I get vibes that Cydney will try and use Michele to get out Aubry. Doubt to Aubry's longevity is created.

Her last confessional was about how Mr Joe reminds her of her grandfather.

Joe was the dog that had his day. Winning reward, over eating, then the physical drama. Jiffy really built him up...he was forcing his choice of player down our throats, if you ask me. Other than persevering through the game as a septagenarian, Joe, for me, didn't add anything to the game. Sorry, Joe. He was a goat that was dragged. His departure at this point casts doubt on Aubry's win.

At high risk: Tai ~ I now see Tai as the journey player in this game, playing with his heart and not his brain lands him at the end, but short of the prize. It would be fitting for the journey player, Tai, who played with his heart, and not with his brain, to lose to the only brain left, Aubry.

At risk: Cydney: Just not enough substance to her game. She was layed back, but couldn't be bossed around, first by the guys, then by everyone else. She was strong and physically threatening as well. Labeled by Aubry has her biggest threat. It would be ironic is there was an F3, and Cydney being there steals votes from Aubry, giving Michele a win!

Safe: If this game ends in a F2, I suspect it will indeed be Aubry and Michele. (if it's a F3 then the 3 girls will be in it, I think at this point...)

I see Aubry as the definitive winner of the season, but if it ends in an F3, it could lead to split votes and perhaps a surprising Michele win. She definitely is gaining momentum toward the end of the season. But, still, I really feel that it's Aubry's game to lose.

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05-17-16, 07:13 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: Episode 13 Confessionals, Pre-Finale"
Nice work, FP.

I've seen Tai as a journey player all along, someone trying to fit in, first in the Beauty tribe where he succeeded mostly because of his friendship with Caleb and then in the game itself where he isn't faring as well. However, in the days when Survivor used to know how to tell a story, we always had a feeling that the journey players gained something that, to them, was worth as much if not more than the million. Cirie wanted to make her family proud and she certainly succeeded. Yau Man wanted to prove his value even if everyone was mocking him and he certainly succeeded by helping Earl. That what we used to call "journey players". What will Tai have gained? I feel he is less respected no than he was at the beginning of the season.

Cydeny should have gotten way more confessionals if she was our winner. She probably played the best overall game and made a big move to get rid of Nick. It wasn't enough though and she needed to work with Aubry to take over completely so maybe that's why she'd lose a F3 vote.

Michele has been carried all the way but she's the anti-Cydney: She's received more confessionals than her game warrants. That really bothers me.

Aubry's story has followed the themes of the season. This time, it's not even us that have defined those themes but Jeff himself! The season will look weird if Aubry loses to one of those "pretty people" but Michele has so many backers that I think someone has inside info.

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05-17-16, 08:55 PM (EST)
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60. "RE: Episode 13 Confessionals, Pre-Finale"
Thanks for your thoughts, Michel. I always respect your opinions and consider your assessments spot on.

Your editing thread is always amazing, and this season I haven't been able to keep up as much as I would like to. I promise to do better next season! I really get so much insight to it all when I follow along closely. Frankly, I will be thoroughly shocked if Michele wins. Last season, I felt that Spencer got a stellar edit, but I could certainly make a valid case for Jeremy as well. Spencer ended up being the decoy, the one that had us doubting Jeremy's win. This season, however, there is no case for Michele, unless it does end up being an F3, and Cydney and Aubry lose votes to each other and Michele reaps the benefits.

Granted, she was nice and she got along. But, she was a secondary player that hid behind stronger ones, Nick, Julia, Cydney. In Natalie's season, she won because everyone hated Russell so much, but Cydney and Aubry are not hated characters. If she wins it will feel SOAH RONG! Ha!

But, I also agree, she does have more confessionals than her story warrants which is disconcerting.

Idk, I still think Aubry can pull it out! I haven't paid any attention to what the "others" are thinking!

I totally agree with your thoughts on Tai and on the "journey" player. It's true, the journey player used to be on a quest of some sort that really didn't involve winning the million.

Tai's journey involved "trying" to be something that he was not and then coming to terms with just being who he is....Tai felt emotional pain when he tried to play with his brain, and was so relieved when Aubry appealed to him to stick with her. He insists on not changing and continuing to play with his heart, he's being true to himself. While it won't win him a million dollars, it will make him the hero of his own story! <3

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05-17-16, 09:54 PM (EST)
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61. "RE: Episode 13 Confessionals, Pre-Finale"
I like your take on Tai's journey. He didn't need to find anything, prove anything or even "discover" himself. He just had to accept who he is. A circular journey if you will!
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Sheldor 1126 desperate attention whore postings
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05-24-16, 05:07 AM (EST)
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62. "RE: Episode 13 Confessionals, Pre-Finale"
Such a strange season for Confessionals.

The only player in the Final 4 that had a Confessional in Every Episode including an Intro Confessional was Tai

None of the 3 women had an Intro Confessional
Aubry and Michele both had TWO Episodes with NO Confessional.
Cydney had only One Episode with NO Confessional.

50 = Tai(3rd place)
46 = Aubry(2nd place)
36 = Michele(WINNER)
26 = Cydney(4th place)

The last time a season was won by a Female with a Final 4 consisting of 1 Male and 3 Females was S29 San Juan Del Sur (actually 4 Females)

32 = Keith(4th place)
30 = Baylor(5th place)
29 = Natalie(WINNER)
24 = Missy(2nd place)
22 = Jaclyn(2nd place)

I think the previous time a season was won by a Female with a Final 4 consisting of 1 Male and 3 Females was S20 Heroes vs Villains

Most Russell(3rd place)
Next Parvati(2nd place)
Next Sandra(WINNER)
Next Jerri(4th place)

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